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At least 739 records · Page 41
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Nonlinear Sigma model amplitudes to all loop orders are contained in the Tr ( Φ 3 ) theory

Scattering amplitudes for the simplest theory of colored scalar particles—the Tr ( Φ 3 ) theory—have recently been the subject of active investigations. In this work we describe an unanticipated wider implication of this work: the Tr ( Φ 3 ) theory secretly contains nonlinear sigma model (NLSM) amplitudes to all loop orders. The NLSM amplitudes are obtained from Tr ( Φ 3 ) amplitudes by a unique shift of kinematic variables. We show that this shifted kinematics produces amplitudes for a cubic theory with a linear term in the potential, with extrema spontaneously breaking U ( N ) → U ( N − k ) × U ( k ) . The Goldstone amplitudes for this theory coincide with those of pions in the U ( N ) × U ( N ) → U ( N ) chiral Lagrangian to all orders in the planar limit. We also give a purely on-shell understanding of this correspondence, showing that integrands defined by the kinematic shifts have the correct residues on poles and appropriately produce the Adler zero. Finally, we discuss how similar kinematic shifts produce certain infinite classes of mixed amplitudes of pions and Tr ( Φ 3 ) scalars, most of which are not interpretable from the Lagrangian description. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Signatures of linearized gravity in atom interferometers: A simplified computational framework

We develop a general framework for calculating the leading-order, general relativistic contributions to the gravitational phase shift in single-photon atom interferometers within the context of linearized gravity. We show that the atom gradiometer observable, which only depends on the atom interferometer propagation phase, can be written in terms of three distinct contributions: the Doppler phase shift, which accounts for the tidal displacement of atoms along the baseline, the Shapiro phase shift, which accounts for the delay in the arrival time of photons at atom-light interaction points, and the Einstein phase shift, which accounts for the gravitational redshift measured by the atoms. For specific atom gradiometer configurations, we derive the signal and response functions for two physically motivated scenarios: (i) transient gravitational waves in the transverse-traceless gauge and, for the first time, in the proper detector frame, and (ii) transient massive objects sourcing weak and slow-varying Newtonian potentials. Here, we find that the Doppler contribution of realistic Newtonian noise sources (e.g., a freight truck or a piece of space debris) at proposed atom gradiometer experiments, such as AION, MAGIS, and AEDGE, can exceed the shot noise level and thus affect physics searches if not properly subtracted. Note: 44 pages including appendices, 4 figures; v2: different formatting, fixed typos, 28 pages including appendices, 5 figures, agrees with published version

Atom interferometry↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hidden conformal symmetry of the discrete series scalars in dS 2

In D dimensional de Sitter space, a scalar field has an infinite tower of special tachyonic mass values at which enhanced shift symmetries appear. After modding out by these shift symmetries, these fields correspond to the unitary irreducible representations of the de Sitter group known as the discrete series. We show that in D = 2 these theories have global conformal symmetry. In all but the massless case, these theories have no stress tensor and the conformal symmetry does not act in the usual way on the scalar field. We find the conformal symmetry by explicitly computing the correlators of the shift invariant local operators and showing that they take conformally invariant forms. We also demonstrate how these fields are self-dual in D = 2 , and dual to the shift invariant massive vector fields, which are therefore also conformally invariant. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

Farnsworth, Kara (ORCID:000000020200078X)↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Single-Stage Isolated Resonant SiC DC/AC Inverter for Efficient High-Power Applications

This paper presents a single-stage series-resonant dual active half bridge (SR-DAHB) inverter suitable for high power applications. The topology is an isolated dual half-bridge circuit with an unfolding bridge. A combined phase-shift and frequency modulation technique is utilized to generate AC power output. In high-power applications where the switching devices operate at relatively high current and voltage, the switching loss becomes the major portion of the converter’s total loss as the devices are turned on and off under hard switching condition. The primary merit of the proposed single-stage SR-DAHB inverter with the combined phase-shift and frequency modulation control is to significantly reduce the switching loss so that it is not a function of load current. A precise and comprehensive power loss model is developed for both the SR-DAHB and DAHB to optimize the operation of the inverters. The objective of the optimization is to minimize the inverter total loss while calculating the optimum combination of frequency and phase shift. A 1.5 kV, 50 kW prototype was built to demonstrate the performance of the SRDAHB versus DAHB inverters with the combined phase-shift and frequency modulation control, and validate the theoretical analysis.

Tayebi, S. Milad↗
DOE OSTI2023

Deep Reinforcement Learning Based HVAC Control for Reducing Carbon Footprint of Buildings

In this paper, we present our work on deep reinforcement learning (DRL) based intelligent control of Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning (HVAC) with the goal of reducing carbon emission. We performed this task using 1) Marginal Operating Emission Rates (MOER), where the objective was to shift the demand to the low emission period of the day and 2) Time-Of-Use (TOU) demand-response price where the objective was to shift the demand to low price period of the day. This was achieved by learning an optimal pre-cooing strategy. We found the carbon emission reduction in the range of 6%-16% depending on the opportunity presented by the MOER signal. Similarly, we observed the carbon emission reduction in the range of 23%-29% during the peak price period when TOU price was used. The results clearly demonstrated the applicability of our approach in reducing the carbon footprint of the building.

carbon emission↗
DOE OSTI2022

Successional adaptive strategies revealed by correlating arbuscular mycorrhizal fungal abundance with host plant gene expression

The shifts in adaptive strategies revealed by ecological succession and the mechanisms that facilitate these shifts are fundamental to ecology. These adaptive strategies could be particularly important in communities of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) mutualistic with sorghum, where strong AMF succession replaces initially ruderal species with competitive ones and where the strongest plant response to drought is to manage these AMF. Although most studies of agriculturally important fungi focus on parasites, the mutualistic symbionts, AMF, constitute a research system of human-associated fungi whose relative simplicity and synchrony are conducive to experimental ecology. First, we hypothesize that, when irrigation is stopped to mimic drought, competitive AMF species should be replaced by AMF species tolerant to drought stress. We then, for the first time, correlate AMF abundance and host plant transcription to test two novel hypotheses about the mechanisms behind the shift from ruderal to competitive AMF. Surprisingly, despite imposing drought stress, we found no stress-tolerant AMF, probably due to our agricultural system having been irrigated for nearly six decades. Remarkably, we found strong and differential correlation between the successional shift from ruderal to competitive AMF and sorghum genes whose products (i) produce and release strigolactone signals, (ii) perceive mycorrhizal-lipochitinoligosaccharide (Myc-LCO) signals, (iii) provide plant lipid and sugar to AMF, and (iv) import minerals and water provided by AMF. These novel insights frame new hypotheses about AMF adaptive evolution and suggest a rationale for selecting AMF to reduce inputs and maximize yields in commercial agriculture.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Island influences on plant functional traits and trait–trait associations across species‐ and community‐scales

The island rule predicts gigantism or dwarfism in body size of island species relative to their mainland counterparts. However, whether other functional traits shift and whether trait–trait associations on islands differ between species and community levels remains unclear. We measured 13 carbon- and water-related functional traits in 37 shared tree species across 35 eastern Chinese islands and 66 nearby mainland plots. We examined species-level trait value shifts and associations under the island rule and compared trait associations between species and communities. Most size-related, wood-anatomical, and hydraulic traits shifted on islands, with large values decreasing and small values increasing; yet, their associations remained stable, aligning with the global trait spectrum and trait–trait coevolution. This stability, despite trait value shifts, suggests evolutionary integration of functional strategies. By contrast, island community-scale trait associations diverged from shared species-level patterns and sometimes reversed, such as positive relationships between wood density and resource-acquisitive traits. Community-level trait associations were stronger on islands, likely reflecting constrained environmental filtering and migration limitation. These contrasting patterns suggest that dominant species can restructure trait associations at the community level, with implications for ecosystem functioning and carbon storage, thereby advancing understanding of plant trait strategies in island systems.

Archipelagos↗
DOE OSTI2022

Isotopic Signatures of Lithium Carbonate and Lithium Hydroxide Monohydrate Measured Using Raman Spectroscopy

Lithium isotopic ratios have wide ranging applications as chemical signatures, including improved understanding of geochemical processes and battery development. Measurement of isotope ratios using optical spectroscopies would provide an alternative to traditional mass spectrometric methods, which are expensive and often limited to a chemical laboratory. In this work, Raman spectra of 7 Li 2 CO 3 , 6 Li 2 CO 3 , 7 LiOH*H 2 O and 6 LiOH*H 2 O have been measured to determine the effect of lithium isotope substitution on the Raman molecular vibrations. Thirteen peaks were observed in the spectrum of lithium carbonate, with discernable isotopic shifts occurring in eleven of the thirteen vibrations, two of which have not been previously reported in the literature. The spectrum of lithium hydroxide monohydrate contained nine peaks, with discernable isotopic shifts occurring in eight of the nine vibrations, four of which have not been previously reported in the literature. The Raman spectral data reported here for lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide monohydrate are in agreement with the previously reported works in the literature, in which the Raman active modes of these molecules were first identified and assigned. However, due to the stability and resolution of the detection system used in this work, isotopic shifts with a magnitude less than one wavenumber have been identified. Principal Component Regression was used to evaluate the sensitivity to isotopic content of small Raman peak shifts in Li 2 CO 3 and indicates differences greater than 2 atom-% could be reliably determined. These measurements add to the body of work on lithium isotope Raman spectroscopy for these two compounds and increases the number of Raman bands which could be used for lithium isotope content analysis.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Benchmarking Demand Flexibility in Commercial Buildings and Flattening the Duck – Addressing Baseline and Commissioning Challenges

With the transition from our traditional electric grid to a cleaner grid with renewable power generation, there is a need to enable building loads to be flexible. Load shedding and shifting will be essential for flattening the “Duck” for decarbonization. This paper explored the trend in the timing of DR events as a reflection of the grid’s needs using recent four years of event data from 203 retail stores in 11 states. The events are becoming significantly shorter with 2-hour duration being the most popular; shifting to late afternoon and early evening is another trend beyond California. Benchmarking will be essential for accounting DF as a reliable grid resource. This paper addresses a challenging aspect of benchmarking – inaccuracies in counterfactual baseline methods can introduce significant DF metrics variations in addition to weather and building characteristics related factors. The conventional “10/10” with adjustment baseline method has inherent limitation by design for load shifting applications. Therefore, it is imperative to identify alternative methods. This study compared three hourly regression baseline methods with “10/10” methods using two groups of commercial buildings that participated in DR programs: (1) 121 big-box retail stores, and (2) 11 office buildings in CA. The 14-day hourly outdoor temperature regression method was found to produce least error in the tested datasets and is promising for load shifting. The paper also pointed out that commissioning issues can also be a significant barrier for achieving consistent DF performance, which building managers and utilities should be aware of.

Liu, Jingjing↗
DOE OSTI2021

Thermal Effects on Far-Field Distributed Acoustic Strain-Rate Sensors

Summary Fiber-optic cables cemented outside of the casing of an unconventional well measure crosswell strain changes during fracturing of neighboring wells with low-frequency distributed acoustic sensing (LF-DAS). As a hydraulic fracture intersects an observation well instrumented with fiber-optic cables, the fracture fluid injected at ambient temperatures can cool a section of the sensing fiber. Often, LF-DAS and distributed temperature sensing (DTS) cables are run in tandem, enabling the detection of such cooling events. The increasing use of LF-DAS for characterizing unconventional hydraulic fracture completions demands an investigation of the effects of temperature on the measured strain response by LF-DAS. Researchers have demonstrated that LF-DAS can be used to extract the temporal derivative of temperature for use as a differential-temperature-gradient sensor. However, differential-temperature-gradient sensing is predicated on the ability to filter strain components out of the optical signal. In this work, beginning with an equation for optical phase shift of LF-DAS signals, a model relating strain, temperature, and optical phase shift is explicitly developed. The formula provides insights into the relative strength of strain and temperature effects on the phase shift. The uncertainty in the strain-rate measurements due to thermal effects is estimated. The relationship can also be used to quantify uncertainties in differential-temperature-gradient sensors due to strain perturbations. Additionally, a workflow is presented to simulate the LF-DAS response accounting for both strain and temperature effects. Hydraulic fracture geometries are generated with a 3D fracture simulator for a multistage unconventional completion. The fracture width distributions are imported by a displacement discontinuity method (DDM) program to compute the strain rates along an observation well. An analytic model is used to approximate the temperature in the fracture. Using the derived formulae for optical phase shift, the model outputs are then used to compute the LF-DAS response at a fiber-optic cable, enabling the generation of waterfall plots including both strain and thermal effects. The model results suggest that before, during, and immediately following a fracture intersecting a well instrumented with fiber, the strain on the fiber drives the LF-DAS signal. However, at later times, as completion fluid cools the observation well, the temperature component of the LF-DAS signal can be equal to or exceed the strain component. The modeled results are compared to a published field case in an attempt to enhance the interpretation of LF-DAS waterfall plots. Finally, we propose a sensing configuration to identify the events when “wet fractures” (fractures with fluids) intersect the observation well.

Engineering↗
DOE OSTI2020

Demand Response in Bangalore: Implications for Electricity System Operations

Recent Greening the Grid studies for India highlight the benefits of flexible resources for integrating variable renewable energy onto India’s electricity system. India’s ambitious renewable energy targets, which are particularly focused on renewable resource states such as Karnataka, will face fewer challenges when combined with new planning and operational strategies and technologies. This report explores one such strategy - demand response - by which the system operator shifts load throughout a day to minimize system wide production costs. To explore this strategy, we added demand response resources to Karnataka’s electricity system in a production cost model of India, using load shifting potential analyzed by Lawrence Berkeley National Labs. We then investigated the impacts of increasing demand response capacity under several renewable resource scenarios. Our results show the addition of demand response enables fuel shifting from high-marginal-cost and emissions-intensive subcritical coal and diesel generation to zero-marginal-cost and emissions-free renewable generation. Accordingly, the value that demand response provides to the system increases as the renewable penetration increases. In addition to reducing production costs and emissions, demand response reduces the time that thermal generators spend at their minimum output levels, which typically represents a less efficient and costlier operational state. Agricultural load shifting provides greater value to the system than residential, commercial, or industrial loads. Agricultural demand response is more flexible than other sectors because it is not exposed to subdaily operational constraints and it can operate for more hours per day without impacting customer satisfaction. Further, the first increment of demand response that is added to a system provides the greatest value; further additions provide additional benefits but have a decreasing impact. The insights we discuss could be leveraged by system planners and operators in other jurisdictions, particularly those facing significant renewable energy penetrations, to develop their own demand response programs.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

UT-GOM2-2 Drilling Fluid (Technical Note)

It is proposed that a salt-saturated, water-based mud might improve borehole stability for UT-GOM2-2 relative to a fresh-water-based mud. However, the primary objective for UT-GOM2-2 is to safely and successfully acquire uncompromised hydrate-bearing sediment cores. This can only be done if conditions stay within the hydrate stability zone, and well away from the hydrate stability boundary. The addition of salt to the drilling mud, shifts the hydrate stability boundary closer to estimated conditions. This shift, by some estimates of pressure and temperature, where conditions now fall outside of the hydrate stability zone, may result in borehole enlargement and the release of free gas into the borehole. This shift by all estimates, even when coring conditions stay inside the hydrate stability zone, shrinks the window between the estimated conditions and the hydrate stability boundary. This shift is likely to compromise the hydrate-bearing cores while they are being recovered from the bottom-hole to the rig floor. In this report we present two examples: 1) Assuming temperature and pressure from in-situ estimates: Hydrate within the target reservoirs (Orange and Blue) at Walker Ridge Block 313 (WR 313) will be outside the hydrate stability zone in the presence of a drilling mud with 9.5 wt.% salinity (the salinity of the proposed 10.5 ppg salt-based mud) at in situ pressure and temperature. Thus, the hydrate will be unstable. A 10.5 ppg salt-based mud may result in dissociation of the hydrate into its components: water and gas. 10.5 ppg salt-based mud may enlarge the borehole, release free gas into the borehole, and compromise the cores. 2) Assuming temperatures equal to the measured LWD borehole temperatures at this location: Hydrate within the target reservoirs will be stable with a salinity of 9.5 wt.% (the salinity of the proposed 10.5 ppg salt-based mud), but possibly unstable (just at the methane hydrate stability boundary) for a salinity of 17.2 wt.% (the salinity of the proposed 13.5 ppg salt-based kill mud). if the borehole has the same temperature as recorded during previous LWD drilling at this location. A 13.5 ppg salt-based kill mud may destabilize the borehole. More importantly, a 10.5 ppg salt-based mud does not provide a large enough window between the estimated conditions and the hydrate stability boundary. Core temperatures and pressures fluctuate from the bottom-hole conditions as the core is brought up from the bottom-hole to the rig floor. These fluctuations are likely to cause the hydrate in the cores to touch or cross the stability boundary. Therefore, cores captured using a 10.5 ppg salt-based mud are likely to be compromised during core recovery to the rig floor.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Li Isotope Signatures using Optical Spectroscopies

The primary goal of this work is to investigate the detection capabilities of laser ablation molecular isotopic spectrometry (LAMIS) and Raman spectroscopy for lithium isotopic determination as related to Li enrichment activities. LAMIS is an emerging spectroscopic technique that takes advantage of the fact that molecules exhibit much larger isotopic wavelength shifts in molecular emission spectra than their atomic counterparts. Raman spectroscopy has been shown to exhibit isotopic shifts if a given molecular vibration involves the isotope of interest. Both techniques are comprised of the same basic hardware: a spectrometer, a laser system (pulsed for LAMIS, pulsed or CW for Raman), and an intensified charge-coupled device (ICCD). Shifts in Raman spectra due to lithium isotopes in Li 2 C0 3 and LiOH*H 2 0 were observed. LAMIS measurements of the same compounds have not been successful yet, as no lithium containing molecular emissions have been identified to this point. However, an isotopic shift of the self-reversal of an atomic lithium emission was observed, which is another optical technique used to measure isotopes.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Combined Coherent Manipulation and Single-Shot Measurement of an Electron Spin in a Quantum Dot (Final Technical Report)

Semiconductor quantum dots (QDs) are promising candidates to act as single-photon sources and/or quantum bits in future optical quantum information applications. Their excellent optical properties such as high brightness, single-photon purity, and narrow linewidth have potential utility in many areas. One challenge is to control the energy levels of the QD without using a magnetic field. The AC Stark effect offers the opportunity to do this. We have demonstrated record-large AC Stark shifts of the energy states of a single charged QD. We showed that the shifts can be applied in a spin-selective manner by controlling the polarization of the laser producing the AC Stark effect. In order to characterize the effect, we developed a novel spectral filtering scheme to discriminate the high-power AC Stark laser from the QD fluorescence. We also developed a compact, low-cost, homemade polarimeter to help control the polarization of the AC Stark laser, which enabled the spin selectivity of the AC Stark effect. With the practical capabilities thus developed, we learned that the spin-selective AC Stark effect causes electron spin pumping, which in turn causes nuclear spin pumping via the hyperfine interaction. The nuclear spin pumping causes a mean field Zeeman interaction between the nuclear spin ensemble and the electron trapped in the QD, resulting in the so-called Overhauser shift. The magnitude of the Overhauser shift and the measured linewidth of the QD’s optical transitions enabled characterization of the mean nuclear spin polarization and fluctuations. The potentially rapid (ns-scale) control of the QD energy levels and nuclear spin polarization will enable measurements of electron and nuclear spin polarization in the absence of any real magnetic field, which is a completely unique capability. The ability to rapidly apply a spin-selective AC Stark effect in the presence of a weak real magnetic field will allow control of the polarization selection rules of the transitions, enabling all single-qubit operations on the electron spin, i.e., initialization, coherent manipulation, and quantum non-demolition measurement.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2024

SCALE 6.3 Validation: Radiation Shielding

Safe and reliable use of scientific and engineering computer codes requires validation for the types of applications in which they will be used. An example in the nuclear reactor engineering and licensing field is radiation transport employed in shielding analyses. The validity of computer codes for shielding applications is demonstrated in this report for SCALE version 6.3.0. Representative benchmarks corresponding to shielding analyses are selected for the validation study. Typical measurement results analyzed from these benchmarks include neutron fluxes, detector count rates, detector energy response functions, neutron and gamma dose rates, neutron activation rates and activities, neutron leakage fluxes, and skyshine dose rates. Thousands of points of comparison between measurement and calculation are presented in this work. Other than rare outliers typically explained by either a lack of information or large uncertainties in the experiment conditions, material, or dimensions, the Monaco with Automated Variance Reduction using Importance Calculations (MAVRIC) radiation transport computer code with built-in variance reduction methods distributed with the SCALE computer code system agrees well with the measurement results. In selected benchmarks, MAVRIC is also compared to Monte Carlo N- Particle® (MCNP® ) 1 calculations. Both computer codes generally agree well within the estimated uncertainties. With the release of SCALE 6.3.0, Shift was integrated as an alternative transport solver in MAVRIC, denoted MAVRIC-Shift. Although the traditional MAVRIC using Monaco was used primarily in this validation study, many results have also been generated using MAVRIC-Shift. Agreement between MAVRIC-Monaco and MAVRIC-Shift is generally very good. The benchmarks presented in this report were obtained from reliable sources such as the International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project Handbook, the Shielding Integral Benchmark Archive & Database, and other shielding validation work found in the literature. Additional datapoints and benchmarks will be added to future versions of this report to expand the shielding validation suite.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Electromagnetic response of disordered superconducting cavities

We present the results for the resonant frequency shift and quality factor of disordered niobium (Nb) superconducting radio-frequency cavities driven out of equilibrium by the resonant microwave field. The theory is based on the non-equilibrium theory of superconductivity for the current response to the electromagnetic field at the vacuum–metal interface. We are able to accurately predict the observed frequency shifts with a precision of order fractions of kHz over the full temperature range 0 < T ≤ T c , including the negative frequency shift anomalies that are observed very near T c . The origin of these anomalies is shown to be the competition between the normal metal skin depth and the London penetration depth, which diverges as T→T c ⁻. An analytical approximation to the full current response, valid for |T-Tc| $\ll$ Tc, accounts for the negative frequency shift near T c . The non-monotonic dependence of the quality factor on the quasiparticle scattering rate is related to the pair-breaking effect of disorder on the superfluid fraction and, thus, the London penetration depth.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2023

Recent streamflow trends across permafrost basins of North America

Introduction Climate change impacts, including changing temperatures, precipitation, and vegetation, are widely anticipated to cause major shifts to the permafrost with resulting impacts to hydro-ecosystems across the high latitudes of the globe. However, it is challenging to examine streamflow shifts in these regions owing to a paucity of data, discontinuity of records, and other issues related to data consistency and accuracy. Methods Recent trends for long-term periods (1990–2021, 1976–2021) in observed minimum, mean, and maximum seasonal and annual streamflow were analyzed for a range of watersheds across North America affected by varying degrees of permafrost coverage. Results Streamflow trend analysis revealed that areas affected by permafrost are changing variably over the periods in terms of maximum, mean, and minimum seasonal and annual streamflow. These changes indicate a significant shift occurring in the most recent 46 years towards increasing mean streamflow for the dominant (> 50%) permafrost systems. Meanwhile, minimum streamflow increases for all permafrost-dominant systems and many of the other permafrost-affected systems across the seasons and annual periods considered, with the greatest number of significant changes in streamflow over other metrics. Maximum streamflow is shifting variably with significant increases in the permafrost-dominant systems in winter and fall over longer time periods of analysis. Our analysis suggests that streamflow trends are driven by climate (precipitation, followed by temperature), while variables such as permafrost coverage only appear important in the most recent 32-year period. Discussion The increases in streamflow trends observed in this study are reflective of deepening active layers and thawing permafrost, indicating that the entire hydrograph is undergoing change within permafrost-dominant streamflow systems as the Arctic moves towards a warmer future under climate change. Despite the many challenges to understanding changing streamflow in cold regions, there are new products and datasets in development that are increasingly allowing researchers to better understand the patterns of change in Arctic and subarctic systems affected by permafrost, offering a range of new tools, which, along with continued observational records, may help in improved understanding of changing Arctic streamflow patterns.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Benchmarking and parameter sensitivity of physiological and vegetation dynamics using the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES) at Barro Colorado Island, Panama

Plant functional traits determine vegetation responses to environmental variation, but variation in trait values is large, even within a single site. Likewise, uncertainty in how these traits map to Earth system feedbacks is large. We use a vegetation demographic model (VDM), the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES), to explore parameter sensitivity of model predictions, and comparison to observations, at a tropical forest site: Barro Colorado Island in Panama. We define a single 12-dimensional distribution of plant trait variation, derived primarily from observations in Panama, and define plant functional types (PFTs) as random draws from this distribution. We compare several model ensembles, where individual ensemble members vary only in the plant traits that define PFTs, and separate ensembles differ from each other based on either model structural assumptions or non-trait, ecosystem-level parameters, which include (a) the number of competing PFTs present in any simulation and (b) parameters that govern disturbance and height-based light competition. While single-PFT simulations are roughly consistent with observations of productivity at Barro Colorado Island, increasing the number of competing PFTs strongly shifts model predictions towards higher productivity and biomass forests. Different ecosystem variables show greater sensitivity than others to the number of competing PFTs, with the predictions that are most dominated by large trees, such as biomass, being the most sensitive. Changing disturbance and height-sorting parameters, i.e., the rules of competitive trait filtering, shifts regimes of dominance or coexistence between early- and late-successional PFTs in the model. Increases to the extent or severity of disturbance, or to the degree of determinism in height-based light competition, all act to shift the community towards early-successional PFTs. In turn, these shifts in competitive outcomes alter predictions of ecosystem states and fluxes, with more early-successional-dominated forests having lower biomass. It is thus crucial to differentiate between plant traits, which are under competitive pressure in VDMs, from those model parameters that are not and to better understand the relationships between these two types of model parameters to quantify sources of uncertainty in VDMs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗