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At least 739 records · Page 41

Solar proton effects on austral ozone during the final months of 1989

Intense solar activity during 1989 prompted six major particle events. Four of these occurred between August and December. Energetic solar protons are a natural source of ozone depletion due to the nitric oxides they produce in the polar atmospheres. In particular, modelling (Reid et al., 1991) of an event that peaked on October 20 (with greater than 10 MeV proton flux of 73000 particles sq cm s(exp -1) ster(exp -1) yields 55 percent column density enhancements of NO over the southern polar cap. Total column ozone data from the total ozone ,mapping spectrometer (TOMS) instrument aboard the Nimbus 7 satellite used at times when solar illumination facilitates measurements by TOMS over the entire southern polar regions. The impact of odd nitrogen enhancements on the spatial extent of low total column ozone and of the total ozone mass, over a region August to December. Comparisons are made with previous years (1984 to 1988) of moderate solar activity. The effect, if any, of these events on ozone during times of heterogeneous chlorine chemistry and dynamic processes is discussed.

Stephenson, Judy A. E.↗

Pole-equator difference and the variability of the brightness of the chromospheric CaII-K-network elements in quiet regions over the solar cycle

The dependence of the brightness of chromospheric network elements on latitude was investigated for quiet solar regions. Calibrated photographic CaII K-spectroheliograms were used to compare the variation in brightness at the center of the disk with higher latitude of chromospheric network elements in a quiet region as a function of solar activity. It was found that there was no significant difference in brightness between the center of the solar disk and higher latitude. It is concluded that the brightness of the chromospheric network elements in a quiet region does not depend on the latitude, but that the variation in the intensity enhancement is related to the level of solar activity.

Kariyappa, R.↗

ISS FPP Ionospheric Electron Density and Temperature Measurements: Results, Comparison with the IRI-90 Model, and Implications for ISS Charging

We give measurement results of electron temperature and electron density from the Floating Potential Probe (FPP) on the International Space Station (ISS), and relate them to the electron current collection of the ISS solar arrays and the degree of charging of ISS when its Plasma Contacting Units (PCUs) are not operating. We show that on days of high solar activity index Kp, high levels of ISS charging are significantly more probable than on days of low solar activity, due to some abnormally low morning electron temperatures. Although the FPP electron temperatures measured are almost always higher than predicted by the International Reference Ionosphere 90 model (IRI-90), it is shown that the CHAMP satellite Langmuir Probe (PLP) also shows low dawn electron temperatures on the same day as those found by FPP. It is further shown that similar high levels of predicted charging, accompanied by vxB charging on the ISS structure, could exceed the -40 V specification on ISS charging, and could be dangerous to ISS astronauts if the PCUs fail to operate.

Ferguson, D. C.↗

A Solar-luminosity Model and Climate

Although the mechanisms of climatic change are not completely understood, the potential causes include changes in the Sun's luminosity. Solar activity in the form of sunspots, flares, proton events, and radiation fluctuations has displayed periodic tendencies. Two types of proxy climatic data that can be related to periodic solar activity are varved geologic formations and freshwater diatom deposits. A model for solar luminosity was developed by using the geometric progression of harmonic cycles that is evident in solar and geophysical data. The model assumes that variation in global energy input is a result of many periods of individual solar-luminosity variations. The 0.1-percent variation of the solar constant measured during the last sunspot cycle provided the basis for determining the amplitude of each luminosity cycle. Model output is a summation of the amplitudes of each cycle of a geometric progression of harmonic sine waves that are referenced to the 11-year average solar cycle. When the last eight cycles in Emiliani's oxygen-18 variations from deep-sea cores were standardized to the average length of glaciations during the Pleistocene (88,000 years), correlation coefficients with the model output ranged from 0.48 to 0.76. In order to calibrate the model to real time, model output was graphically compared to indirect records of glacial advances and retreats during the last 24,000 years and with sea-level rises during the Holocene. Carbon-14 production during the last millenium and elevations of the Great Salt Lake for the last 140 years demonstrate significant correlations with modeled luminosity. Major solar flares during the last 90 years match well with the time-calibrated model.

Perry, Charles A.↗

The regimes of the east-west and the radial anisotropies of cosmic rays in the heliosphere

Observations dating back to 1957 are used to show that there are two distinct physical states of the heliosphere. From 1957-1970 the diurnal anisotropy consisted of the azimuthal component only. This period is defined as the regime of the east-west anisotropy. The period 1971-1979 is characterized by the appearance of a radial anisotropy which attained a maximum amplitude in 1976, when the solar activity was minimum. It is suggested that there is an inverse correlation between the amplitude of the radial anisotropy and solar activity. The physical state of the heliosphere is very stable during the regime of east-west anisotropy and extremely dynamic during the radial anisotropy regime. It is suggested that the heliosphere switches from one physical state to another following the onset of the solar polar field reversal.

Ahluwalia, H. S.↗

Periodic behaviors in the observed vertical column abundances of atmospheric hydroxyl

OH vertical column abundances measured at Fritz Peak Observatory, Colorado, from 1977 through 1988 reveal semi-annual and annual cycles which are amplitude modulated over the 11-year data base. The modulation of the OH seasonal behavior is in phase with solar activity as described by the sunspot number index. No mechanism for the observed covariance of this OH behavior with solar activity has yet been identified.

Burnett, Elizabeth Beaver↗

The interplanetary magnetic field from 1 to 5 AU - Ulysses observations

Observations of the IMF carried out from October 1990 to February 1992 during the in-ecliptic phase of the Ulysses mission are presented. The observations were made between 1 and 5.4 AU during a different phase of the solar cycle from previous missions. The large-scale reorganization of the solar coronal fields following the maximum in Solar Cycle 22 generated numerous transient events, causing large-scale disturbances in interplanetary space, particularly during the first half of 1991. From about the middle of 1991, solar activity apparently decreased, resulting in fewer transient events, allowing the formation of corotating interaction regions (CIRs) recurring in successive solar rotations. Observations of the IMF reflect this temporal evolution in solar activity. However, the average orientation of the IMF, the observed sector structure, and the evolution of the CIRs show that the dynamic interaction of transient events with evolving stream-stream structures in this heliocentric distance range results in significant deviations from the expected IMF topology, even when signature of the transients is less apparent.

Balogh, A.↗

Radio Emissions from the Outer Heliosphere

For nearly fifteen years the Voyager 1 and 2 spacecraft have been detecting an unusual radio emission in the outer heliosphere in the frequency range from about 2 to 3 kHz. Two major events have been observed, the first in 1983-84 and the second in 1992-93. In both cases the onset of the radio emission occurred about 400 days after a period of intense solar activity, the first in mid-July 1982, and the second in May-June 1991. These two periods of solar activity produced the two deepest cosmic ray Forbush decreases ever observed. Forbush decreases are indicative of a system of strong shocks and associated disturbances propagating outward through the heliosphere. The radio emission is believed to have been produced when this system of shocks and disturbances interacted with one of the outer boundaries of the heliosphere, most likely in the vicinity of the the heliopause. The emission is believed to be generated by the shock-driven Langmuir-wave mode conversion mechanism, which produces radiation at the plasma frequency (f(sub p)) and at twice the plasma frequency (2f(sub p)). From the 400-day travel time and the known speed of the shocks, the distance to the interaction region can be computed, and is estimated to be in the range from about 110 to 160 AU.

Gurnett, D. A.↗

Revised predictions of LDEF exposure to trapped protons

Initial estimates of LDEF exposure to the trapped proton environment were reported previously to aid in the interpretation dosimetry data and in conjunction with dosimetry response predictions. These previous estimates were made using the standard NASA AP8 trapped proton models for two sets of assumed conditions: (1) the omnidirectional flux spectra were calculated with the LDEF altitude and solar activity variations taken into account; and (2) the NASA Marshall anisotropy model was applied to obtain directional spectra, but only for solar minimum conditions and at a single altitude. Herein, the directional trapped proton fluence spectra is calculated considering both the altitude variation and solar activity during the LDEF mission. These additional results represent an extension of previous calculations to provide a more definitive description of the LDEF trapped proton exposure.

Watts, J. W., Jr.↗

Large-scale variations of the interplanetary magnetic field: Voyager 1 and 2 observations between 1-5 AU

Observations by the Voyager 1 and 2 spacecraft of the interplanetary magnetic field between 1 and 5 AU were used to investigate the large scale structure of the IMF in a period of increasing solar activity. The Voyager spacecraft found notable deviations from the Parker axial model. These deviations are attributed both to temporal variations associated with increasing solar activity, and to the effects of fluctuations of the field in the radial direction. The amplitude of the latter fluctuations were found to be large relative to the magnitude of the radial field component itself beyond approximately 3 AU. Both Voyager 1 and Voyager 2 observed decreases with increasing heliocentric distance in the amplitude of transverse fluctuations in the averaged field strength (B) which are consistent with the presence of predominantly undamped Alfven waves in the solar wind, although and necessarily implying the presence of them. Fluctuations in the strength of B (relative to mean field strength) were found to be small in amplitude, with a RMS which is approximately one third of that for the transverse fluctuations and they are essentially independent of distance from the Sun.

Burlaga, L. F.↗

Solar-induced variations of environment affecting manned space flight and spacecraft operations

Estimates of short and long term solar activity are required for calculating variations in the environment with regard to spacecraft charging, radiation effects, and orbital lifetime. Correlations appear to exist between the time of solar activity and the time of operational anomalies due to electrical discharges when the dielectric surfaces of geosynchronous spacecraft are charged by interaction with the ambient plasma to levels above breakdown voltage. An ability to predict the solar induced variation variability of the plasmas could permit refinement of design criteria. The influence of the radiation on spacecraft materials, systems, and manned operations is summarized. Solar radition effects on the orbital altitude atmospheric density environment and spacecraft lifetimes are also considered.

Johnson, W. G.↗

Four-Formation In-Track Configuration Maintenance Strategy

The aim of this paper is to present the analysis conducted by CNES for the maintenance of a formation made of several LEO satellites (typically 4) in several planes (typically 2), 100 km or so apart from each other. The along-track separations between the satellites have to be controlled to within 15 km thanks to orbit correction maneuvers supposed to be performed every 2 weeks. The main difficulty is related to solar activity which is expected to be close to its maximum for the entire mission s lifespan. As a matter of fact, a high solar activity makes orbit prediction harder, and makes it impossible to keep the altitude of the formation constant. Thus, a specific relative maintenance strategy had to be devised in order to meet the mission's requirements. The first part provides a few elements on the mission analysis process that has taken place. The method used for the evaluation of the maneuver frequency is detailed, based on the evaluation of the effects of atmospheric drag on the orbit. The second part is dedicated to the maintenance strategy that has been designed, and particularly to the computation of the reference orbits and of the velocity increments that enable the in-track inter-satellite distances to be maintained within the desired bounds. Finally a few simulation results are presented; they enable the performance of the maintenance strategy to be checked in a more realistic context.

Lamy, Alain↗

Study of the Mass-loss Rate from the Sun

We investigate the temporal evolution of the yearly total mass-loss rate (YTMLR) from the Sun through coronal mass ejections (CMEs) over solar cycles 23 and 24. The mass determination of CMEs can be subject to significant uncertainty. To minimize this problem, we have used extensive statistical analysis. For this purpose, we employed data included in the Coordinated Data Analysis Workshop (CDAW) catalog. We estimated the contributions to mass loss from the Sun from different subsamples of CMEs (selected on the basis of their masses, angular widths, and position angles). The temporal variations of the YTMLR were compared to those of the sunspot number (SSN), X-ray flare flux, and the Disturbance Storm Time (Dst) index. We show that the CME mass included in the CDAW catalog reflects with high accuracy the actual mass-loss rate from the Sun through CMEs. Additionally, it is shown that the CME mass distribution in the log-lin representation reflects the Gaussian distribution very well. This means that the CMEs included in the CDAW catalog form one coherent population of ejections that have been correctly identified. Unlike the CME occurrence rate, it turns out that the YTMLR is a very good indicator of solar activity (e.g., SSN) and space weather (e.g., Dst index) consequences. These results are very important, since the YTMLR, unlike the mass loss through solar wind, significantly depends on solar cycles.

the sun↗

Ground increase of cosmic ray intensity on February 16, 1984

The event of February 16, 1984 is one of the two largest ground increases of solar cosmic rays (CR) in the last two cycles of solar activity. This event happended at a decrease of the 21-st cycle against a quiet background. Although at the beginning of 1984 the observed indices of solar activity were higher than those at the end of 1983, the day of February 16 16 may be characterized as very quiet. On that day the geomagnetic perturbance (Sigma F sub p = 14, A sub p = 7) was the lowest in February. After a small Forbush decrease due to the magnetic storm of February 12-13, the CR intensity almost completely recovered by February 16. Thus, the solar particles that came to the Earth on February 16 got into a practically unperturbed magnetosphere, and the variations of secondary CR induced by these particles were not superimposed on any other substantial variations of extraterrestrial or magnetospheric origin.

Belov, A. V.↗

Solar prediction analysis

Solar Activity prediction is essential to definition of orbital design and operational environments for space flight. This task provides the necessary research to better understand solar predictions being generated by the solar community and to develop improved solar prediction models. The contractor shall provide the necessary manpower and facilities to perform the following tasks: (1) review, evaluate, and assess the time evolution of the solar cycle to provide probable limits of solar cycle behavior near maximum end during the decline of solar cycle 22, and the forecasts being provided by the solar community and the techniques being used to generate these forecasts; and (2) develop and refine prediction techniques for short-term solar behavior flare prediction within solar active regions, with special emphasis on the correlation of magnetic shear with flare occurrence.

Smith, Jesse B.↗

The mechanism of temperature and pressure changes in the Earth's atmosphere during solar flares

The effect of solar flares on the weather on Earth is examined. It is concluded that the processes which arise in the atmosphere are so intricate that a single calculation of solar activity is insufficient for long-range forecasting. However, combined consideration of processes dependent upon the dynamic instability of the atmosphere and the effect of solar activity will contribute to the improvement of long-range forecasts.

Reshetov, V. D.↗

Sun Series program for the REEDA System

Modifications made to data bases and to four programs in a series of computer programs (Sun Series) which run on the REEDA HP minicomputer system to aid NASA's solar activity predictions used in orbital life time predictions are described. These programs utilize various mathematical smoothing technique and perform statistical and graphical analysis of various solar activity data bases residing on the REEDA System.

Shankle, R. W.↗