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At least 739 records · Page 41

Drying of tundra landscapes will limit subsidence-induced acceleration of permafrost thaw: Modeling Archive

This Modeling Archive is in support of a NGEE Arctic publication in review "Drying of tundra landscapes will limit subsidence-induced acceleration of permafrost thaw". The study used a cryohydrology model to assess the potential risk of abrupt permafrost thaw triggered by melting ground ice, a key open question associated with permafrost response to a warming Arctic. The spatially resolved simulations are for a small catchment 465 ice-wedge polygons in polygonal tundra near Utqiagvik, Alaska in the high-emissions RCP8.5 climate scenario. The simulations are compared to runoff, evapotranspiration and subsidence in the current climate and agree well. The study used the ATS code configured as an intermediate-scale cryohydrology model (Advanced Terrestrial Simulator, Version v2). The archive includes input files for spinup (1985 to 2005) and projections (2006 to 2100 - the manuscript reports 2006 to 2098). Three of the projections include the effects of subsidence and microtopography change with different depth profiles of ice content corresponding to the median, 20th percentile and 80th percentile. The fourth projection has subsidence turnoff and uses the reference case (median) ice content. Spatially averaged or aggregated output variables are included for the projections. Selected checkpoint files for the projections and postprocessing scripts are also included. Files included are *.xml; *.h5; *.exo; *.py; *.sh, *. nb, mesh files, and one file in the original Excel format plus *.csv and *.pdf to conserve formatting contained in the original file. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Mars Global Climate Modeling.

Scientists use Global Climate Models (GCMs) to better under the current and past climate states of terrestrial (solid surface) bodies in our solar system and beyond, and the physical processes that control them. GCMs are complex, multi-dimensional computer codes that can generally be divided into two parts: the geophysical fluid dynamics (GFD) framework, which represents accelerations and spatially resolved processes, and the physics routines, which provide the forcing functions for the circulation. Producing a GCM that is appropriate for a particular body—Mars, for example—requires implementing the appropriate physics routines (e.g., radiative transfer, planetary boundary layer physics, dust lifting physics to generate dust storms, etc.) for that body. In this talk, I will give an overview of the components of the NASA Ames Mars GCM and discuss some of the scientific questions we address with this state-of-the-art numerical model.

Melinda A. Kahre↗

Development of an Unbiased Future Solar Dataset for Solar Resource Adequacy Research Over CONUS

A high-resolution, long-term solar dataset is essential for capturing the variability of solar energy resources and informing strategies to ensure grid reliability and resilience in systems with high levels of solar energy integration. This study focuses on generating unbiased, high-resolution projections of solar irradiance through a statistical downscaling framework, using Earth system model (ESM) simulations obtained from the North American Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (NA-CORDEX). The National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) is used to calibrate statistical downscaling models. The newly developed dataset provides solar irradiance, surface air temperature, and surface wind speed at 4-km and hourly resolutions across the contiguous United States (CONUS), based on two future scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). This study outlines key steps in developing the high-resolution future solar dataset, including (1) regridding ESM data to a common 20-km resolution grid, (2) correcting ESM biases using the NSRDB, and (3) applying temporal and spatial downscaling methods to generate high-resolution (4-km, hourly) solar projections. Preliminary results indicate that downscaled projections (4-km) captured reasonable spatial patterns when compared to observations across CONUS for four variables. On average across all pixels, 4-km daily-total GHI and DNI projections showed normalized bias (nBias) less than 1% and 6% for GHI and DNI against NSRDB, respectively (nBias less than 1% and 5% for daily-average surface air temperature and surface wind speed). In terms of long-term trend for GHI and DNI, there was no strong increasing or decreasing trend (when compared to surface air temperature), but it showed a very weak decreasing trend.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Coarse Grid Modeling of Turbine Film Cooling Flows Using Volumetric Source Terms

The recent trend in numerical modeling of turbine film cooling flows has been toward higher fidelity grids and more complex geometries. This trend has been enabled by the rapid increase in computing power available to researchers. However, the turbine design community requires fast turnaround time in its design computations, rendering these comprehensive simulations ineffective in the design cycle. The present study describes a methodology for implementing a volumetric source term distribution in a coarse grid calculation that can model the small-scale and three-dimensional effects present in turbine film cooling flows. This model could be implemented in turbine design codes or in multistage turbomachinery codes such as APNASA, where the computational grid size may be larger than the film hole size. Detailed computations of a single row of 35 deg round holes on a flat plate have been obtained for blowing ratios of 0.5, 0.8, and 1.0, and density ratios of 1.0 and 2.0 using a multiblock grid system to resolve the flows on both sides of the plate as well as inside the hole itself. These detailed flow fields were spatially averaged to generate a field of volumetric source terms for each conservative flow variable. Solutions were also obtained using three coarse grids having streamwise and spanwise grid spacings of 3d, 1d, and d/3. These coarse grid solutions used the integrated hole exit mass, momentum, energy, and turbulence quantities from the detailed solutions as volumetric source terms. It is shown that a uniform source term addition over a distance from the wall on the order of the hole diameter is able to predict adiabatic film effectiveness better than a near-wall source term model, while strictly enforcing correct values of integrated boundary layer quantities.

Heidmann, James D.↗

Debunking common myths in coastal circulation modeling

Despite tremendous progress in algorithm development, computational efficiency and transition into operations over the past two decades, coastal modeling still lacks scientific rigor due to proliferation of many ‘gray’ areas related to various modeling choices made by modelers. Here, in this paper, we propose some guiding principles for the modeling community to improve performance, and we also debunk commonly held myths that make the coastal modeling lack rigor. Using our own experience in developing seamless cross-scale unstructured-grid based models for the past two decades, we describe in unprecedented detail the end-to-end modeling process (i.e., from digital elevation models (DEMs) to mesh generation to post analysis), and demonstrate that defensible modeling is within reach for any end user by following three guiding principles: (1) Bathymetry is a first order forcing in coastal domains and thus should be respected in all aspects of modeling; (2) Oceanographic processes are driven across multiple spatial scales and so models should enable appropriate resolution as needed; and (3) Model assessment should focus on physical processes. Through qualitative and quantitative model assessments, we demonstrate the fundamental role played by bathymetry/topography as embedded in DEMs in making the results defensible, which is unfortunately glossed over in many modeling studies. Focusing on process-based assessment simplifies the calibration process. A major conclusion of this work is that model developers and operators should maximize the scientific rigor for in silico oceanography by avoiding some common pitfalls that rely on error compensation at the expense of representation of physical system processes. We present some best practice procedures for defensive and trustworthy numerical modeling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Absolute atomic hydrogen density measurements in an atmospheric pressure plasma jet: generation, transport and recombination from the active discharge region to the effluent

Atomic hydrogen (H) generated by atmospheric pressure radio frequency (RF) plasma jet is investigated by two-photon absorption laser induced fluorescence in a He-H 2 mixture. The reported time and spatially resolved H density profiles enable a detailed analysis of the species generation, transport and decay along the axis of symmetry of the jet. Here, the H density distribution for a continuous RF plasma jet corresponds well with the outcome of a Pseudo-1D plug flow model. In addition, RF power modulation has a strong effect on the H density in the active discharge region but has a negligible effect on the H density in the far effluent.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

GET-Solar (Generation forecasting and parameter Estimation Tool for Solar) [SWR-20-115]

GET-Solar (Generation forecasting and parameter Estimation Tool for Solar) can be used to estimate behind the meter (BTM) solar generation from limited datasets. Using distributed sets of diverse solar sites, but with close spatial proximity, and/or limited historical PV generation information can be used to generate of solar profiles. This is useful for applications where partial solar generation data is available, and on-site irradiance data is not available. GET-Solar calculates PV technical data parameters and calculates output by modeling shading and cloud cover impacts. Clear sky irradiance profiles are used to calculate base generation profiles on which the local shading and cloud cover layers are added. In order to arrive at clear sky generation data, PV mounting information like panel tilt and and angle is needed. For cases where PV mounting information is missing, panel tilt and azimuth angle can be estimated using a non-linear optimization algorithm. GET-Solar can also be used for forecasting applications where historical PV data is available to estimate local shading at various solar positions. This overall framework can be used for estimation of solar parameters, and assisting in analyzing and modeling diverse sets of DER where solar generation is also present in utility meter data. GET-Solar has been developed in Python and uses the Pyomo optimization language.

Abraham, Sherin Ann↗

Estimating National-Scale Wind Potential Using Spatially Explicit Turbine Layout Optimization

National renewable energy potential assessments play a broad and critical role in analysis of the clean energy transition by providing foundational estimates of developable clean resources. Common to all past wind potential assessments is an assumption that wraps the complexity of wind plant layout (arrangement of turbines) into a single metric known as capacity density, or rated power capacity per unit of land area. Quite often, a singular capacity density or rotor-diameter driven capacity density is used in wind potential assessments across broad geographies despite the complexities of local drivers. Here, we present a new wind technical potential assessment for the United States, leveraging a spatial optimization approach in lieu of the traditional uniform capacity density. The optimization approach is a spatially explicit method for determining the potential locations of individual wind turbines-taking into account the turbine configuration, plant economics and losses, wind resource, and siting considerations. Our approach accounts for the interactions between wind technology design, wind plant layout, and the vast array of regulatory, land use and infrastructure conflicts with wind development. Our results highlight the potential ability of larger turbines to enable increased wind capacity, up to a point, and increased generation when siting turbines in and around spatial constraints; moreover, they demonstrate and capture the LCOE benefit of relatively lower capacity densities and reduced wake losses when land is relatively abundant. These insights provide foundational knowledge for the wind sector as it develops and pursues future turbine models and as wind energy markets expand in zero-carbon futures. Further, when applied in capacity expansion models, supply curves developed by these methods can provide detailed local insights about where wind turbines might be deployed in and among known siting constraints for those regions where wind energy is determined to be economic, providing critical nuance to local decision-makers and stakeholders.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Comments on 'Inference of cloud temperature and thickness by microwave radiometry from space'

The method proposed by Pandey et al. (1983) for estimating the temperature differential and thickness of clouds from microwave data obtained with the scanning multichannel microwave radiometers of the Seasat and Nimbus-7 satellites is examined critically. It is pointed out that both the thicknesses and the temperature differentials derived from them may not be meaningful unless accurate measurements of cloud-top height (from IR radiometry) and reliable data on liquid-water content are available. It is suggested that the good fits obtained in generating regression coefficients for the proposed method may be artifacts of the fixed or limited-range liquid-water densities of the cloud models used. With respect to cloud-top height, the need to quantify and account for differences in the fields of view and spatial resolutions of the IR and microwave radiometers, as undertaken for the case of precipitating clouds by Yeh and Liou (1983), is stressed.

Yeh, H.-Y. M.↗

Collisional balance of the meteoritic complex

The present study has the objective to reevaluate the size distribution of interplanetary meteoroids on the basis of the most recent data, and to analyze the probable nature of the sinks and sources of meteoritic material. The flux of interplanetary meteorites at 1 AU is discussed, taking into account general characteristics, lunar crater distribution, flux curves, spatial densities, and cross-sectional distribution and light scattering. Collisional effects are examined, giving attention to catastrophic collisions, collision rate, and destroyed mass and generated fragments. The effect of radiation pressure on small particles is considered along with the difference between the lunar and interplanetary flux models, collisional evolution at 1 AU, potential sources for large meteoroids, and observational evidence of losses of small micrometeoroids.

Gruen, E.↗

BATSE software for the analysis of the gamma ray burst spatial distribution

The Burst and Transient Source Experiment (BATSE) on the Gamma Ray Observatory (GRO) is designed to study astronomical gamma ray sources and to provide better positional, spectral, and time resolution about these objects than has previously been possible from one experiment. The procedure to be used in the analysis of the gamma ray burst spatial distribution is presented. Data is input from BATSE via the Gamma Ray Burst Catalog (listing individual burst positions, flux values, and associated errors) and the Sky Sensitivity Map (which summarizes observational selection effects in table format). A FORTRAN program generates Monte Carlo burst catalogs, which are models to be compared to the actual distribution. The Monte Carlo models are then filtered through the Sky Sensitivity Map so that they suffer from the same selection effects as the actual catalog data. Additionally, each burst position is converted into a probability distribution to mimic BATSE positional sensitivity. The Burst Catalog, Monte Carlo burst catalog, and Sky Sensitivity Map are then passed onto an IDL program that compares the catalogs for statistical significance. The Sky Sensitivity Map is used to estimate how often each sky area is observed above the minimum flux level in question. Each burst found in this sky area is then weighted according to the frequency with which this sky area is observed. The catalogs are then compared via tests of homogeneity (based on their radial distributions) and isotropy (based upon their angular distributions). The results of the statistical comparisons along with graphs and charts of the summaries, are output from the IDL program for study.

Hakkila, Jon↗

Study of atmospheric and bidirectional effects on surface reflectance and vegetation index time series: Application to NOAA AVHRR and preparation for future space missions

The objectives of the investigation, namely 'to characterize the atmospheric and directional effects on surface reflectance and vegetation index using the First International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISLCSP) Field Experiment (FIFE) data set, develop new algorithms to obtain better Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) indices, and define possible improvements for future satellite missions', were addressed in three separate, yet complementary studies. First, it was shown, from theoretical calculations, that visible and near infrared reflectances combined linearly at optimum (one or two) viewing angles relate linearly to the fraction of photosynthetically available radiation absorbed by plants, f(sub par), can be used independently of the type of foliage and substrate, eliminate the effects of sub-pixel spatial heterogeneity, and improve the accuracy of the f(sub par) estimates when compared to the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, NDVI. Second, it was demonstrated that NDVI, even though it is not a linear combination of radiances or reflectances, can be spatially integrated without significant loss of information from scales of 300 to 1000 m. Third, AVHRR visible and near-infrared reflectances over the FIFE site, separating temporal and bidirectional components and determining the model parameters through an original iterative scheme was successfully modeled. It appears that NDVI generated from the top-of-atmosphere reflectances normalized by the bidirectional effects (as determined in the scheme) is a better vegetation index than maximum NDVI. Details about the three studies are presented.

Frouin, Robert↗

Leak detection utilizing analog binaural (VLSI) techniques

A detection method and system utilizing silicon models of the traveling wave structure of the human cochlea to spatially and temporally locate a specific sound source in the presence of high noise pandemonium. The detection system combines two-dimensional stereausis representations, which are output by at least three VLSI binaural hearing chips, to generate a three-dimensional stereausis representation including both binaural and spectral information which is then used to locate the sound source.

Hartley, Frank T.↗

Spatially Complete Global Spectral Surface Albedos: Value-Added Datasets Derived from Terra MODIS Land Products

Land surface albedo is an important parameter in describing the radiative properties of the earth s surface as it represents the amount of incoming solar radiation that is reflected from the surface. The amount and type of vegetation of the surface dramatically alters the amount of radiation that is reflected; for example, croplands that contain leafy vegetation will reflect radiation very differently than blacktop associated with urban areas. In addition, since vegetation goes through a growth, or phenological, cycle, the amount of radiation that is reflected changes over the course of a year. As a result, albedo is both temporally and spatially dependant upon global location as there is a distribution of vegetated surface types and growing conditions. Land surface albedo is critical for a wide variety of earth system research projects including but not restricted to remote sensing of atmospheric aerosol and cloud properties from space, ground-based analysis of aerosol optical properties from surface-based sun/sky radiometers, biophysically-based land surface modeling of the exchange of energy, water, momentum, and carbon for various land use categories, and surface energy balance studies. These projects require proper representation of the surface albedo s spatial, spectral, and temporal variations, however, these representations are often lacking in datasets prior to the latest generation of land surface albedo products.

Moody, Eric G.↗

Spectral Analysis of Forecast Error Investigated with an Observing System Simulation Experiment

The spectra of analysis and forecast error are examined using the observing system simulation experiment (OSSE) framework developed at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (NASAGMAO). A global numerical weather prediction model, the Global Earth Observing System version 5 (GEOS-5) with Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) data assimilation, is cycled for two months with once-daily forecasts to 336 hours to generate a control case. Verification of forecast errors using the Nature Run as truth is compared with verification of forecast errors using self-analysis; significant underestimation of forecast errors is seen using self-analysis verification for up to 48 hours. Likewise, self analysis verification significantly overestimates the error growth rates of the early forecast, as well as mischaracterizing the spatial scales at which the strongest growth occurs. The Nature Run-verified error variances exhibit a complicated progression of growth, particularly for low wave number errors. In a second experiment, cycling of the model and data assimilation over the same period is repeated, but using synthetic observations with different explicitly added observation errors having the same error variances as the control experiment, thus creating a different realization of the control. The forecast errors of the two experiments become more correlated during the early forecast period, with correlations increasing for up to 72 hours before beginning to decrease.

OSSE↗

Soil thickness map at two hillslopes near the pumphouse in the east river watershed, Colorado

The soil thickness maps were created by using a hybrid model-data approach. Field sampling and remote sensing data of the spatial distribution of two hillslopes in the Pump House area in the East River Watershed in the CO., the U.S. The data package includes the geospatial data of the soil thickness maps at two hillslopes near the pumphouse, and the associated remote sensing data, including lidar DEM and a shape file of the boundary of the study area. The data can be viewed in GIS software such as QGIS or ArcGIS desktop. The geospatial data can also be viewed in Python or Matlab. The data were generated for the purpose of modeling surface hydrology and near-surface chemistry. This work shows how to combine sampling data and a process-based model to predict one of the highest uncertainty in the land surface process, the soil thickness.

2D Geospatial Maps↗

A Dynamo Simulation Generating Saturn-Like Small Magnetic Dipole Tilts

Abstract Among planetary dynamos, the magnetic field of Saturn stands out in its exceptional level of axisymmetry. One of its peculiar features is that the magnetic dipole mode is tilted with respect to the planetary rotation axis by only ≈0.007° or less. Numerical dynamo simulations performed in this context have had great difficulty in producing such small dipole tilt angles without introducing ad hoc ingredients such as a latitudinally varying heat flux pattern in the outer layers or stably stratified layers (SSLs). Here we present a numerical dynamo simulation that generates a highly axisymmetric dynamo with a dipole tilt of about ≈0.0008° on average. The model consists of a deep dynamo layer and an overlying low-conductivity layer but without any SSLs. We highlight a novel mechanism where strong differential rotation generated in the atmospheric layer penetrates into the dynamo region, helping to maintain a very small magnetic dipole tilt. Plain Language Summary Saturn's dipole-dominant magnetic field exhibits a very peculiar feature: the dipole component of the planetary magnetic field is tilted by less than ≈0.007° with respect to the planetary spin axis. Numerical simulations performed in this context suggest that if a spatial heat-flux variation is imposed, along with a stably stratified region, on top of an active dynamo layer, then small dipole tilt values can be realized. Here we present a model where extremely small dipole tilt values can be achieved without these ad hoc ingredients. Our simulations demonstrate that dynamo theory allows extremely small dipole tilt values in a relatively simple model configuration.

Rakesh Kumar Yadav↗

VIC-Global Parameter Dataset Sensitivity with the Variable Infiltration Capacity Model: Evaluating the importance of dynamic land surface parameters when using the VIC-Global parameter dataset

Accurate prediction of runoff is essential to water resources management, flood risk assessment, and ecosystem protection. However, many hydrological models still have relatively substantial limitations when representing the influence of land use and land cover (LULC) on runoff generation and routing. Changes in LULC, such as deforestation, urban expansion, agricultural intensification, and wetland loss, have been shown to alter the water balance at the land surface through fundamental hydrologic processes (e.g., interception, infiltration, evapotranspiration, and soil storage). However, it remains an open question what the exact magnitude and timing of these impacts are for the spatial and temporal scales commonly used in engineering applications. In this analysis we focus on one aspect of recent LULC change for assessing human impacts, which is urbanization. Specifically we seek to determine the impacts of urbanization on the magnitude and timing of surface runoff and baseflow in HUC-12 basins in Clark County, Nevada which has experienced rapid urbanization. We use the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model with a widely used off-the-shelf dataset of land surface parameters, VIC-Global, both of which have been commonly used in the past for water and energy balance modeling for large scale hydrologic studies. We examine two scenarios where the first scenario removes all urbanized land cover and parameterizes those areas of the basins as barren or open shrubland. The second scenario tests the opposite case where all areas of the basins are classified as urban regardless of their present classification. The results from the VIC model show there is a low sensitivity for daily surface runoff between scenarios. The daily baseflow values indicate similar low sensitivity to the classification change during specific periods, but then have substantial differences during other period when large precipitation events are occurring. This is likely due to the assumed parameter values for the urban land cover classification made by the VIC-Global dataset. Using a static land cover parameterization is reasonable for large domain hydrology models that are being used for near-term planning horizons (<30 years). However, longer planning horizons where feedbacks between the atmosphere and land surface are important, especially in transient climate situations, considerations for how to update land surface parameters should be incorporated.

42 ENGINEERING↗