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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 739 records · Page 41

Forecast of future aviation fuels: The model

A conceptual models of the commercial air transportation industry is developed which can be used to predict trends in economics, demand, and consumption. The methodology is based on digraph theory, which considers the interaction of variables and propagation of changes. Air transportation economics are treated by examination of major variables, their relationships, historic trends, and calculation of regression coefficients. A description of the modeling technique and a compilation of historic airline industry statistics used to determine interaction coefficients are included. Results of model validations show negligible difference between actual and projected values over the twenty-eight year period of 1959 to 1976. A limited application of the method presents forecasts of air tranportation industry demand, growth, revenue, costs, and fuel consumption to 2020 for two scenarios of future economic growth and energy consumption.

Ayati, M. B.↗

Inventory estimation on the massively parallel processor

This paper describes algorithms for efficiently computing inventory estimates from satellite based images. The algorithms incorporate a one dimensional feature extraction which optimizes the pairwise sum of Fisher distances. Biases are eliminated with a premultiplication by the inverse of the analytically derived error matrix. The technique is demonstrated with a numerical example using statistics obtained from an actual Landsat scene. Attention was given to implementation of the Massively Parallel processor (MPP). A timing analysis demonstrates that the inventory estimation can be performed an order of magnitude faster on the MPP than on a conventional serial machine.

Argentiero, P. D.↗

Simulation and assimilation of satellite altimeter data at the oceanic mesoscale

An improved "objective analysis' technique is used along with an altimeter signal statistical model, an altimeter noise statistical model, an orbital model, and synoptic surface current maps in the POLYMODE-SDE area, to evaluate the performance of various observational strategies in catching the mesoscale variability at mid-latitudes. In particular, simulated repetitive nominal orbits of ERS-1, TOPEX, and SPOT/POSEIDON are examined. Results show the critical importance of existence of a subcycle, scanning in either direction. Moreover, long repeat cycles ( 20 days) and short cross-track distances ( 300 km) seem preferable, since they match mesoscale statistics. Another goal of the study is to prepare and discuss sea-surface height (SSH) assimilation in quasigeostrophic models. Restored SSH maps are shown to meet that purpose, if an efficient extrapolation method or deep in-situ data (floats) are used on the vertical to start and update the model.

Demay, P.↗

Single-dish high sensitivity determination of solar limb emission at 22 and 44 GHz

A large number of solar maps were obtained with the use of Itapetinga 45 ft antenna at 22 GHz and 44 GHz. A statistical study of these maps, reduced using original techniques, permitted the establishment of the solar radius with great accuracy at the two frequencies. It is found that 22 GHz and 44 BHz radiation originates at 16,00 km and 12,500 km above the photosphere, respectively. Excess emission due to active regions was clearly identified at lower solar latitudes above and below the equator, extending up to 26,000 km and 16,500 km above the photosphere, at 22 GHs and 44 GHz, respectively.

Costa, J. E. R.↗

Prospects for an orbital determination and capture cell experiment

A dust experiment which combines measurements of the elemental and isotopic composition of individual particles with orbital information would contribute fundamental, new scientific information on the sources contributing to the micrometeoroid population. The general boundary conditions for such a system are: (1) it must be capable of measuring velocities in the range of 10 km/sec to 100 km/sec with several percent accuracy; (2) it must collect particles in such a way that the debris atoms are locally concentrated so that precise isotopic measurements are possible; (3) it should collect particles over a wide range of sizes starting with a lower limit of 10 microns; (4) it should incorporate materials that will not compromise the isotopic measurements; and (5) it should be large enough to obtain statistically meaningful results within a reasonable exposure time. Techniques which may satisfy these conditions are described.

Carey, W. C.↗

On-Orbit System Identification

Information derived from accelerometer readings benefits important engineering and control functions. Report discusses methodology for detection, identification, and analysis of motions within space station. Techniques of vibration and rotation analyses, control theory, statistics, filter theory, and transform methods integrated to form system for generating models and model parameters that characterize total motion of complicated space station, with respect to both control-induced and random mechanical disturbances.

Mettler, E.↗

Nondestructive evaluation of sintered ceramics

Radiography and several acoustic and thermoacoustic microscopy techniques are investigated for application to structural ceramics for advanced heat engines. A comparison is made of the results obtained from the use of scanning acoustic microscopy (SAM), scanning laser acoustic microscopy (SLAM), and thermoacoustic microscopy (TAM). These techniques are evaluated on research samples of green and sintered monolithic silicon nitrides and silicon carbides in the form of modulus-of-rupture (MOR) bars containing deliberately introduced flaws. Strengths and limitations of the techniques are described, with the emphasis being on statistics of detectability of flaws that constitute potential fracture origins. Further, it is shown that radiographic evaluation and guidance helped develop uniform high-density Si3N4 MOR bars with improved four-point flexural strength (875, 544, and 462 MPa at room temperature, 1200 C, 1370 C, respectively) and reduced scatter in bend strength.

Baaklini, George Y.↗

Potential, velocity, and density fields from sparse and noisy redshift-distance samples - Method

A method for recovering the three-dimensional potential, velocity, and density fields from large-scale redshift-distance samples is described. Galaxies are taken as tracers of the velocity field, not of the mass. The density field and the initial conditions are calculated using an iterative procedure that applies the no-vorticity assumption at an initial time and uses the Zel'dovich approximation to relate initial and final positions of particles on a grid. The method is tested using a cosmological N-body simulation 'observed' at the positions of real galaxies in a redshift-distance sample, taking into account their distance measurement errors. Malmquist bias and other systematic and statistical errors are extensively explored using both analytical techniques and Monte Carlo simulations.

Dekel, Avishai↗

The optical and near-infrared colors of galaxies, 1: The photometric data

We present optical and near-infrared photometry and spectroscopic redshifts of a well defined sample of 171 field galaxies selected from three high galactic latitude fields. This data set forms the basis for subsequent studies to characterize the trends, dispersion, and evolution of rest-frame colors and image structure. A subset of 143 galaxies constitutes a magnitude-limited sample to B approx. 19.9-20.75 (depending on field), with a median redshift of 0.14, and a maximum redshift of 0.54. This subset is statistically representative in its sampling of the apparent color distribution of galaxies. Thirty six galaxies were selected to have the reddest red-optical colors in two redshift intervals between 0.2 less than z less than 0.3. Photometric passbands are similar to U, B, V, I, and K, and sample galaxy spectral energy distributions between 0.37 and 2.2 micrometers in the observed frame, or down to 0.26 micrometers in the rest frame for the most distant galaxies. B and K images of the entire sample are assembled to form the first optical and near-infrared atlas of a statistically-representative sample of field galaxies. We discuss techniques for faint field-galaxy photometry, including a working definition of a total magnitude, and a method for matching magnitudes in different passbands and different seeing conditions to ensure reliable, integrated colors. Photographic saturation, which substantially affects the brightest 12% of our sample in the optical bands, is corrected with a model employing measured plate-density distributions for each galaxy, calibrated via similar measurements for stars as a function of known saturation level. Both the relative and absolute calibration of our photometry are demonstrated.

Bershady, Matthew A.↗

An Exploratory Statistical Analysis of a Planet Approach-Phase Guidance Scheme Using Angular Measurements with Significant Error

An exploratory analysis of vehicle guidance during the approach to a target planet is presented. The objective of the guidance maneuver is to guide the vehicle to a specific perigee distance with a high degree of accuracy and minimum corrective velocity expenditure. The guidance maneuver is simulated by considering the random sampling of real measurements with significant error and reducing this information to prescribe appropriate corrective action. The instrumentation system assumed includes optical and/or infrared devices to indicate range and a reference angle in the trajectory plane. Statistical results are obtained by Monte-Carlo techniques and are shown as the expectation of guidance accuracy and velocity-increment requirements. Results are nondimensional and applicable to any planet within limits of two-body assumptions. The problem of determining how many corrections to make and when to make them is a consequence of the conflicting requirement of accurate trajectory determination and propulsion. Optimum values were found for a vehicle approaching a planet along a parabolic trajectory with an initial perigee distance of 5 radii and a target perigee of 1.02 radii. In this example measurement errors were less than i minute of arc. Results indicate that four corrections applied in the vicinity of 50, 16, 15, and 1.5 radii, respectively, yield minimum velocity-increment requirements. Thrust devices capable of producing a large variation of velocity-increment size are required. For a vehicle approaching the earth, miss distances within 32 miles are obtained with 90-percent probability. Total velocity increments used in guidance are less than 3300 feet per second with 90-percent probability. It is noted that the above representative results are valid only for the particular guidance scheme hypothesized in this analysis. A parametric study is presented which indicates the effects of measurement error size, initial perigee, and initial energy on the guidance requirements. Measurement error size significantly affects both guidance accuracy and velocity-increment expenditure. The initial trajectory, as given by its perigee and energy, affects the velocity-increment expenditure but not final guidance accuracy.

Friedlander, Alan L.↗

Regularization for Atmospheric Temperature Retrieval Problems

Passive remote sensing of the atmosphere is used to determine the atmospheric state. A radiometer measures microwave emissions from earth's atmosphere and surface. The radiance measured by the radiometer is proportional to the brightness temperature. This brightness temperature can be used to estimate atmospheric parameters such as temperature and water vapor content. These quantities are of primary importance for different applications in meteorology, oceanography, and geophysical sciences. Depending on the range in the electromagnetic spectrum being measured by the radiometer and the atmospheric quantities to be estimated, the retrieval or inverse problem of determining atmospheric parameters from brightness temperature might be linear or nonlinear. In most applications, the retrieval problem requires the inversion of a Fredholm integral equation of the first kind making this an ill-posed problem. The numerical solution of the retrieval problem requires the transformation of the continuous problem into a discrete problem. The ill-posedness of the continuous problem translates into ill-conditioning or ill-posedness of the discrete problem. Regularization methods are used to convert the ill-posed problem into a well-posed one. In this paper, we present some results of our work in applying different regularization techniques to atmospheric temperature retrievals using brightness temperatures measured with the SSM/T-1 sensor. Simulation results are presented which show the potential of these techniques to improve temperature retrievals. In particular, no statistical assumptions are needed and the algorithms were capable of correctly estimating the temperature profile corner at the tropopause independent of the initial guess.

Velez-Reyes, Miguel↗

Polysilicon Gate Enhancement of the Random Dopant Induced Threshold Voltage Fluctuations in Sub-100 nm MOSFET's with Ultrathin Gate Oxide

In this paper, we investigate various aspects of the polysilicon gate influence on the random dopant induced threshold voltage fluctuations in sub-100 nm MOSFET's with ultrathin gate oxides. The study is done by using an efficient statistical three-dimensional (3-D) "atomistic" simulation technique described else-where. MOSFET's with uniform channel doping and with low doped epitaxial channels have been investigated. The simulations reveal that even in devices with a single crystal gate the gate depletion and the random dopants in it are responsible for a substantial fraction of the threshold voltage fluctuations when the gate oxide is scaled-in the range of 1-2 nm. Simulation experiments have been used in order to separate the enhancement in the threshold voltage fluctuations due to an effective increase in the oxide thickness associated with the gate depletion from the direct influence of the random dopants in the gate depletion layer. The results of the experiments show that the both factors contribute to the enhancement of the threshold voltage fluctuations, but the effective increase in the oxide-thickness has a dominant effect in the investigated range of devices. Simulations illustrating the effect or the polysilicon grain boundaries on the threshold voltage variation are also presented.

Asenov, Asen↗

Investigation of Fundamental Modeling and Thermal Performance Issues for a Metallic Thermal Protection System Design

A study was performed to develop an understanding of the key factors that govern the performance of metallic thermal protection systems for reusable launch vehicles. A current advanced metallic thermal protection system (TPS) concept was systematically analyzed to discover the most important factors governing the thermal performance of metallic TPS. A large number of relevant factors that influence the thermal analysis and thermal performance of metallic TPS were identified and quantified. Detailed finite element models were developed for predicting the thermal performance of design variations of the advanced metallic TPS concept mounted on a simple, unstiffened structure. The computational models were also used, in an automated iterative procedure, for sizing the metallic TPS to maintain the structure below a specified temperature limit. A statistical sensitivity analysis method, based on orthogonal matrix techniques used in robust design, was used to quantify and rank the relative importance of the various modeling and design factors considered in this study. Results of the study indicate that radiation, even in small gaps between panels, can reduce significantly the thermal performance of metallic TPS, so that gaps should be eliminated by design if possible. Thermal performance was also shown to be sensitive to several analytical assumptions that should be chosen carefully. One of the factors that was found to have the greatest effect on thermal performance is the heat capacity of the underlying structure. Therefore the structure and TPS should be designed concurrently.

Blosser, Max L.↗

An Analysis of Peak Wind Speed Data from Collocated Mechanical and Ultrasonic Anemometers

This study compared peak wind speeds reported by mechanical and ultrasonic anemometers at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station and Kennedy Space Center (CCAFS/KSC) on the east central coast of Florida and Vandenberg Air Force Base (VAFB) on the central coast of California. Launch Weather Officers, forecasters, and Range Safety analysts need to understand the performance of wind sensors at CCAFS/KSC and VAFB for weather warnings, watches, advisories, special ground processing operations, launch pad exposure forecasts, user Launch Commit Criteria (LCC) forecasts and evaluations, and toxic dispersion support. The legacy CCAFS/KSC and VAFB weather tower wind instruments are being changed from propeller-and-vane (CCAFS/KSC) and cup-and-vane (VAFB) sensors to ultrasonic sensors under the Range Standardization and Automation (RSA) program. Mechanical and ultrasonic wind measuring techniques are known to cause differences in the statistics of peak wind speed as shown in previous studies. The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) and the 30th Weather Squadron (30 WS) requested the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) to compare data between the RSA ultrasonic and legacy mechanical sensors to determine if there are significant differences. Note that the instruments were sited outdoors under naturally varying conditions and that this comparison was not designed to verify either technology. Approximately 3 weeks of mechanical and ultrasonic wind data from each range from May and June 2005 were used in this study. The CCAFS/KSC data spanned the full diurnal cycle, while the VAFB data were confined to 1000-1600 local time. The sample of 1-minute data from numerous levels on five different towers on each range totaled more than 500,000 minutes of data (482,979 minutes of data after quality control). The ten towers were instrumented at several levels, ranging from 12 ft to 492 ft above ground level. The ultrasonic sensors were collocated at the same vertical levels as the mechanical sensors and typically within 15 ft horizontally of each another. Data from a total of 53 RSA ultrasonic sensors, collocated with mechanical sensors were compared. The 1- minute average wind speed/direction and the 1-second peak wind speed/direction were compared.

Short, David A.↗

Classification of Ascension Island and Natal Ozonesondes Using Self-Organizing Maps

Ozone profiles from balloon-borne ozonesondes are used for development of satellite algorithms and in chemistry-climate model initialization, assimilation and evaluation. An important issue in the application of these profiles is how best to treat variations where varying photochemical and dynamical influences can cause the ozone mixing ratio in the tropospheric segments of the profile to change by of a factor of 2-3 within a day. Clustering techniques are an ideal way to approach the statistical classification of profile data and we apply self-organizing maps to tropical tropospheric SHADOZ data, hypothesizing that the data will sort according to various influences on ozone, namely anthropogenic sources like biomass burning, meteorological conditions, and stratospheric or extra-tropical intrusions. Self-organizing maps, that use a learning algorithm to reveal the most prominent features of a data set according to a specified number of clusters, have been determined for the 1998-2009 SHADOZ profiles over Ascension Island (512 profiles, 7.98 deg. S, 14.42 deg. W) and Natal, Brazil (425 profiles, 5.42degS, 35.38degW). The 2 × 2 self-organizing map, which creates 4 clusters, reveals that deviations from the average ozone in the free troposphere include both increased ozone resulting from seasonal biomass burning in Africa and locally reduced ozone brought about by convective lifting of unpolluted boundary-layer air. Expanding to a 4 × 4 self-organizing map shows how biomass burning influences the yearly cycle of tropospheric ozone at Ascension Island and captures the seasonality of ozone at both Ascension Island and Natal. Comparing Ascension Island and Natal using a 4 × 4 self-organizing map at each site reveals similarities in mid-tropospheric ozone, but shows differences in lower-tropospheric ozone due to Ascension Island being closer to African biomass burning and more affected by descent from the mean Walker circulation, with less convective activity, than Natal.

algorithms↗

Arctic Sea Ice in Transformation: A Review of Recent Observed Changes and Impacts on Biology and Human Activity

Sea ice in the Arctic is one of the most rapidly changing components of the global climate system. Over the past few decades, summer areal extent has declined over 30, and all months show statistically significant declining trends. New satellite missions and techniques have greatly expanded information on sea ice thickness, but many uncertainties remain in the satellite data and long-term records are sparse. However, thickness observations and other satellite-derived data indicate a 40 decline in thickness, due in large part to the loss of thicker, older ice cover. The changes in sea ice are happening faster than models have projected. With continued increasing temperatures, summer ice-free conditions are likely sometime in the coming decades, though there are substantial uncertainties in the exact timing and high interannual variability will remain as sea ice decreases. The changes in Arctic sea ice are already having an impact on flora and fauna in the Arctic. Some species will face increasing challenges in the future, while new habitat will open up for other species. The changes are also affecting peoples living and working in the Arctic. Native communities are facing challenges to their traditional ways of life, while new opportunities open for shipping, fishing, and natural resource extraction.

Sea Ice↗

Classifying Agnostic Biosignatures using Raman, VNIR, and Elemental Data

How can we use our current wealth of terrestrial data, encompassing biogenic and abiogenic systems, to determine the distinguishing properties of life? SCOBI (Statistical Classification of Biosignature Information) uses machine learning techniques to algorithmically identify combinations of measurements that are “indicative of life”. A set of ~1000 observations, comprising elemental abundance, isotopic fractionation, VNIR reflectance, and (in progress) Raman spectra, have been assembled from existing literature and databases. The observations cover systems classified as “indicative alive” (e.g., cells, vegetation), “indicative non-alive” (e.g., fossils, teeth), “mixed indicative” (e.g., soil, pond water), or “non-indicative” (e.g., rocks, meteorites). VNIR data was preprocessed by linear interpolation from 400-2100 nm and smoothed with a Savitzky-Golay filter. To limit the amount of Earth-biochemistry-specific (non-agnostic) information included, the first five spectral features extracted were number of peaks, number of troughs, mean reflectance, mean peak width, and broadest peak width. To help further emphasize agnostic biosignatures, Earth-specific features such as chlorophylls have been manually flagged so that feature importance with and without them can be compared. Classifiers including k-nearest neighbors (KNN), Gaussian Naïve Bayes (GNB), logistic regression (LR), random forest (RF), and support vector machine (SVM) were implemented, as was a combination voting classifier. Performance metrics included false positive rates, false negative rates, and AUC with 50-50 test/train splits (Monte Carlo simulations). Key takeaways from this stage, prior to the inclusion of Raman spectra, are (1) the overall success rate of 0.933 AUC was most heavily influenced by the elemental abundance data; and (2) VNIR reflectance had the lowest classification performance with 0.52 AUC (58% of objects correctly classified). The next steps are to complete integration of Raman spectral data and to improve the approach to pre-processing and feature extraction for both types of spectral data, such as automated baseline removal, whole spectrum matching, and dimensionality reduction.

Biosignatures↗

Bayesian Framework For Bioburden Density Calculations To Perform Planetary Protection Probabilistic Risk Assessment

The planetary protection discipline aims to minimize the microbial contamination on spacecraft to prevent the inadvertent contamination of other planetary bodies, known as forward planetary protection (PP). Planetary protection probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) relies on two core methodologies-the contamination probability event tree analysis and statistical parameter estimation. Planetary protection engineers combine several techniques to estimate the bioburden present on spacecraft components. A direct assay to enumerate CFU (colony forming units) is the preferred methodology, but given a similar processing environment the bioburden present on certain components is inferred using: (1) a NASA defined bioburden estimate based upon the biological cleanliness of the manufacturing/assembly environment or (2) sampled data from a similar spacecraft component. The paper presents an empirical Bayesian framework to systematically treat bioburden estimation and its uncertainties on different levels starting with measurement procedures to combining different components to subsystems and whole spacecraft. It is shown that the Bayesian approach can effectively handle estimations and their uncertainties at different levels and produce a reliable estimate for bioburden to be used to evaluate the probability of contamination.

Seuylemezian, Arman↗