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At least 739 records · Page 41

Extended Development of Variable Conductance Heat Pipes

A high-capacity vapor-modulated heat pipe was designed and tested. In 1977, a program was undertaken to use the aforementioned heat pipe to study protection from freezing-point failure, increase control sensitivity, and transient behavior under a wide range of operating conditions in order to determine the full performance potential of the heat pipe. A new concept, based on the vapor-induced-dry-out principle, was developed for passive feedback temperature control as a heat pipe diode. This report documents this work and describes: (1) the experimental and theoretical investigation of the performance of the vapor-modulated heat pipe; and (2) the design, fabrication and test of the heat pipe diode.

Antoniuk, D.↗

Low-cost, highly transparent flexible low-e coating film to enable electrochromic windows with increased energy savings

Five Quads of energy are lost through windows annually in the U.S. Low-e coatings are increasingly employed to reduce the wasted energy. Most commonly, the low-e coating is an oxide material applied directly to the glass at high temperature. With over 100,000,000 existing homes, a retrofit product is crucial to achieve widespread energy savings. Low-e films, i.e. coatings on polymeric substrates, are now also available to meet this need. However, the traditional oxide materials and process is incompatible with low temperature plastics. Alternate high performing low-e films typically incorporate materials that limit visible transmission to 35% or less. Further, the cost is high. The objective of this award was to develop a retrofit, integrated low-e/electrochromic window film to dramatically reduce energy lost through windows. While field testing of state-of-the-art electrochromic (EC) windows show the energy savings are maximized if a low-e coating is used in conjunction with the EC, available low-e films have a low visible transmission (~70% or less) that limits the achievable clear state and therefore, appearance and energy savings potential. Comprehensive energy savings models were completed at Lawrence Berkeley National Lab (LBNL). A parametric approach was used to project energy usage for windows with a large range of low-e properties across all U.S. climate zones, without limiting the study to materials that had already been produced commercially or made in a lab. The model enables projection of energy savings for low-e films as well as integrated low-e/EC products. This project developed a novel low-e film, optimized for compatibility with EC windows, using low temperature, high deposition rate processes for the growth of low-e coatings on plastic films by microwave plasma enhanced chemical vapor deposition. Silica films with good density and optical properties were demonstrated at deposition rates as high as 130Å/sec. A simple bi-layer low-e stack of silica and a transparent conductive oxide demonstrated 90% visible transmission with high thermal infrared reflectivity characteristic of conventional low-e coatings. A slightly more complex stack provided high solar infrared reflection without sacrificing visible transmission or thermal infrared reflection. Successful completion of the effort produced a prototype integrated low-e, dynamic window film with characterized energy saving potential. Cost modeling for the passive bi-layer, low-e film projects a manufacturing cost of ~$0.50/ft2 for a plant with 10M ft2/yr capacity. The novel thin film processes developed here enable high deposition rate (low cost), optical quality oxide coatings at low temperatures. When combined with engineered materials, ITN’s coating will result in low-cost, low-e films that reflect a high degree of infrared radiation without substantially reducing the visible transmission. The resultant window film will improve the U-value and achieve SHGC improvements over bare glass. The new low-e coating will be particularly attractive when combined with an electrochromic film. Low-e coating design guided by energy savings modeling allows customization of the product for different climate zones.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Overview of space power electronic's technology under the CSTI High Capacity Power Program

The Civilian Space Technology Initiative (CSTI) is a NASA Program targeted at the development of specific technologies in the areas of transportation, operations and science. Each of these three areas consists of major elements and one of the operation's elements is the High Capacity Power element. The goal of this element is to develop the technology base needed to meet the long duration, high capacity power requirements for future NASA initiatives. The High Capacity Power element is broken down into several subelements that includes energy conversion in the areas of the free piston Stirling power converter and thermoelectrics, thermal management, power management, system diagnostics, and environmental compatibility and system's lifetime. A recent overview of the CSTI High capacity Power element and a description of each of the program's subelements is given by Winter (1989). The goals of the Power Management subelement are twofold. The first is to develop, test, and demonstrate high temperature, radiation-resistant power and control components and circuits that will be needed in the Power Conditioning, Control and Transmission (PCCT) subsystem of a space nuclear power system. The results obtained under this goal will also be applicable to the instrumentation and control subsystem of a space nuclear reactor. These components and circuits must perform reliably for lifetimes of 7-10 years. The second goal is to develop analytical models for use in computer simulations of candidate PCCT subsystems. Circuits which will be required for a specific PCCT subsystem will be designed and built to demonstrate their performance and, also, to validate the analytical models and simulations. The tasks under the Power Management subelement will now be described in terms of objectives, approach and present status of work.

Schwarze, Gene E.↗

Sedimentation and Nonlinear Trapping in Texas Reservoirs Identified Using Remote Sensing and Bathymetric Survey Records

Decreasing reservoir storage capacity due to sedimentation poses great challenges to aging U.S. reservoirs, as it reduces the efficacy and reliability of their socio‐economic services. However, systematic assessments of reservoir sedimentation rates and associated issues remain limited because of sparse and infrequent bathymetry survey data. In this study, we use remote sensing‐driven estimates of sediment concentrations to identify regions experiencing rapid reservoir capacity loss, as observed in repeated bathymetry surveys. Our analysis focuses on Texas, where one of the most reliable state‐level reservoir capacity loss data sets is available through a unique long‐term monitoring program by the Texas Water Development Board. We find that reservoirs with large storage capacities and high sedimentation rate are concentrated in Northeast Texas. We also show that reduced forest, increased barren land, and erosive soil properties are co‐varying with high reservoir sedimentation rates. Temporal changes in the longitudinal gradient of the remotely sensed sediment flux highlight the nonlinear nature of sediment trapping processes, and can be used to estimate the reservoir storage capacity loss over time. In combination with standard bathymetry surveys, our approach shows potential for more cost‐effective and frequent assessment of reservoir storage loss.

Lee, Jiyong [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000198957406)↗

Efficient Capacitive Deionization Using Thin Film Sodium Manganese Oxide

Capacitive deionization (CDI) is an emerging electrochemical desalination technology, which could outperform other desalination technologies if new electrode materials are developed with high electrochemical salt sorption capacities. Recent work has demonstrated improved desalination efficiency using redox-active materials in hybrid CDI (hCDI) electrodes. Here, we report new charge-storage behavior in thin-film sodium manganese oxide (NMO) which promises to enable new levels of desalination efficiency. We deposit thin-film MnO via atomic layer deposition (ALD), and electrochemically convert it to NMO in NaCl(aq). NMO coated electrodes exhibit increases in charge storage capacity up to 170 times higher than uncoated electrodes. Electrochemical quartz crystal microbalance (EQCM) measurements reveal that thin-film NMO leads to the electrochemical removal of 2.3 Na+ ions per electron. This super-stoichiometric removal of Na+ is corroborated by ab initio modeling that predicts a new electrochemical phenomenon at the NMO surface, which we term electron-decoupled ion transfer, or “EDIT.” We also describe a new custom low-volume and low-mass-loading hCDI cell which enables the study of the desalination performance of the EDIT mechanism. An hCDI cell comprised of NMO-coated carbon nanotube (CNT) cathode and Ag nanoparticle-decorated CNT anode yields a ~20-fold improvement in charge storage over bare CNT electrodes. The hCDI cell has a reversible charging efficiency (mol NaCl (mol e-)-1) of 123 ± 5% and a coulombic efficiency of 93%, corroborating our EQCM results and the EDIT mechanism. The EDIT mechanism, as well as the hCDI cell design that enabled its study, promise to hasten the development of hCDI devices with unprecendented performance

ab initio modeling↗

Final DOE-ASR Report for the Project “Using LASSO to bridge the gap between model and observations and to learn about atmospheric convection”

Atmospheric convection spans a wide range of spatial and temporal scales and involves complex interactions with the surrounding dynamic and thermodynamic environment, particularly over tropical continental regions. These processes remain a major source of uncertainty in weather and climate models, including persistent biases in the diurnal cycle of convective precipitation that directly affect estimates of climate sensitivity. Addressing these challenges requires the combined use of high-resolution observations and cloud-resolving modeling frameworks. In this context, the DOE Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program’s Large-Eddy Simulation ARM Symbiotic Simulation and Observation (LASSO) activity provides a powerful platform that pairs comprehensive observations with numerical simulations to enable process-level understanding of atmospheric convection. Within this context, this Research and Development Partnership Pilot (RDPP) project was designed to initiate and expand DOE ARM/ASR research capacity at minority-serving institutions, while advancing scientific understanding of convective processes over the Amazon rainforest. Consistent with the RDPP mission, the project emphasized partnership development, training, and workforce capacity building alongside exploratory research activities. On the scientific side, the project produced two peer-reviewed journal articles, and one manuscript currently under review (see list in section 3.1). Together, these studies combine long-term ARM observations and cloud-resolving and convection-permitting modeling to investigate the environmental controls on the shallow-to-deep convective transition during the Amazon wet season. The results demonstrate the central role of early-day moisture preconditioning and large-scale dynamical forcing in regulating isolated deep convection, provide mechanistic insight into convective evolution, and establish physically informed modeling frameworks for future sensitivity experiments. These scientific outcomes are described in sections 2.1 to 2.3 and were disseminated in 8 conference presentations (see section 3.2) and 5 invited talks (see section 3.3), reflecting broad engagement with our community. Equally important, the project achieved its RDPP capacity-building objectives (see section 2.4). A sustained research partnership was established among the University of Maryland, Baltimore County (UMBC), Morgan State University (MSU), and Howard University (HU), and extended to include collaboration with Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). The project organized multiple multi-day training events focused on ARM data, LASSO simulations, and quantitative analysis methods, directly engaging students, postdoctoral researchers, and faculty across institutions. These activities broadened participation in ASR research and led to independent adoption of LASSO workflows by students beyond the immediate project team. Finally, the project successfully positioned the participating institutions to pursue future DOE research. Preliminary scientific results, coupled with strengthened partnerships and technical capacity, enabled the submission of follow-on proposals to DOE ASR funding opportunities. In this way, the project fulfilled the RDPP goal of seeding durable research capacity and laying the foundation for larger-scale, sustained engagement with DOE ARM and ASR programs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Lithium-Air Cell Development

Lithium-air (Li-air) primary batteries have a theoretical specific capacity of 11,400 Wh/kg, the highest of any common metal-air system. NASA is developing Li-air technology for a Mobile Oxygen Concentrator for Spacecraft Emergencies, an application which requires an extremely lightweight primary battery that can discharge over 24 hours continuously. Several vendors were funded through the NASA SBIR program to develop Li-air technology to fulfill the requirements of this application. New catalysts and carbon cathode structures were developed to enhance the oxygen reduction reaction and increase surface area to improve cell performance. Techniques to stabilize the lithium metal anode surface were explored. Experimental results for prototype laboratory cells are given. Projections are made for the performance of hypothetical cells constructed from the materials that were developed.

Lithium-air↗

Probabilistic Analysis of Ground-Holding Strategies

The Ground-Holding Policy Problem (GHPP) has become a matter of great interest in recent years because of the high cost incurred by aircraft suffering from delays. Ground-holding keeps a flight on the ground at the departure airport if it is known it will be unable to land at the arrival airport. The GBPP is determining how many flights should be held on the ground before take-off and for how long, in order to minimize the cost of delays. When the uncertainty associated with airport landing capacity is considered, the GHPP becomes complicated. A decision support system that incorporates this uncertainty, solves the GHPP quickly, and gives good results would be of great help to air traffic management. The purpose of this thesis is to modify and analyze a probabilistic ground-holding algorithm by applying it to two common cases of capacity reduction. A graphical user interface was developed and sensitivity analysis was done on the algorithm, in order to see how it may be implemented in practice. The sensitivity analysis showed the algorithm was very sensitive to the number of probabilistic capacity scenarios used and to the cost ratio of air delay to ground delay. The algorithm was not particularly sensitive to the number of periods that the time horizon was divided into. In terms of cost savings, a ground-holding policy was the most beneficial when demand greatly exceeded airport capacity. When compared to other air traffic flow strategies, the ground-holding algorithm performed the best and was the most consistent under various situations. The algorithm can solve large problems quickly and efficiently on a personal computer.

Sheel, Minakshi↗

Potential impacts of advanced technologies on the ATC capacity of high-density terminal areas

Advanced technologies for airborne systems (automatic flight control, flight displays, navigation) and for ground ATC systems (digital communications, improved surveillance and tracking, automated decision-making) create the possibility of advanced ATC operations and procedures which can bring increased capacity for runway systems. A systematic analysis is carried out to identify certain such advanced ATC operations, and then to evaluate the potential benefits occurring over time at typical US high-density airports (Denver and Boston). The study is divided into three parts: (1) A Critical Examination of Factors Which Determine Operational Capacity of Runway Systems at Major Airports, is an intensive review of current US separation criteria and terminal area ATC operations. It identifies 11 new methods to increase the capacity of landings and takeoffs for runway systems; (2) Development of Risk Based Separation Criteria is the development of a rational structure for establishing reduced ATC separation criteria which meet a consistent Target Level of Safety using advanced technology and operational procedures; and (3) Estimation of Capacity Benefits from Advanced Terminal Area Operations - Denver and Boston, provides an estimate of the overall annual improvement in runway capacity which might be expected at Denver and Boston from using some of the advanced ATC procedures developed in Part 1. Whereas Boston achieved a substantial 37% increase, Denver only achieved a 4.7% increase in its overall annual capacity.

Simpson, R. W.↗

SERVIR - Connecting Space to Village in Africa, Asia and the Americas

SERVIR is a joint NASA and USAID program that partners with countries and organizations to support locally led efforts to strengthen climate resilience, food and water security, forest and carbon management, and air quality. This unique program integrates NASA’s world class scientists and data with USAID’s development expertise and network of partners and relationships around the world. SERVIR harnesses the power of satellite data and science collaboration to support healthy, sustainable communities, livelihoods and environments. SERVIR’s name is derived from Latin, meaning "to serve.” We serve and partner with leading local, national, and regional institutions in Africa, Asia, and Latin America and in partnership with scientists and subject matter experts to co-develop and implement activities called “services.” Each of SERVIR’s services provide a comprehensive suite of geospatial data, software, and training materials, all of which are tailored to the unique needs of SERVIR’s end users. Each service is collaboratively designed and implemented with the help of partners and users, such as local governments and NGOs, to better support decision-making. When SERVIR plans new services, it prioritizes long-term dialogue and engagement with communities to ensure that services are sustainable, socially inclusive, and suited to local needs. SERVIR strives to make the power of Earth science more accessible and inclusive. All web tools are made publicly available to help promote greater uptake and long-term use of SERVIR’s services.

SERVIR↗

Nano-Satellite Avionics

Abstract NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) is currently developing a new class of satellites called the nano-satellite (nano-sat). A major objective of this development effort is to provide the technology required to enable a constellation of tens to hundreds of nano-satellites to make both remote and in-situ measurements from space. The Nano-sat will be a spacecraft weighing a maximum of 10 kg, including the propellant mass, and producing at least 5 Watts of power to operate the spacecraft. The electronics are required to survive a total radiation dose rate of 100 krads for a mission lifetime of two years. There are many unique challenges that must be met in order to develop the avionics for such a spacecraft. The first challenge is to develop an architecture that will operate on the allotted 5 Watts and meet the diverging requirements of multiple missions. This architecture will need to incorporate a multitude of new advanced microelectronic technologies. The microelectronics developed must be a modular and scalable packaging of technology to solve the problem of developing a solution to both reduce cost and meet the requirements of various missions. This development will utilize the most cost effective approach, whether infusing commercially driven semiconductor devices into spacecraft applications or partnering with industry to design and develop low cost, low power, low mass, and high capacity data processing devices. This paper will discuss the nano-sat architecture and the major technologies that will be developed. The major technologies that will be covered include: (1) Light weight Low Power Electronics Packaging, (2) Radiation Hard/Tolerant, Low Power Processing Platforms, (3) High capacity Low Power Memory Systems (4) Radiation Hard reconfiguragble field programmable gate array (rFPGA)

Culver, Harry↗

Wind Energy Accomplishments and Year-End Performance Report: Fiscal Year 2023

As the United States' largest source of renewable energy, wind is already playing a vital role in the nation's shift to electricity generated from sustainable resources. Scientists, engineers, and analysts at the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) are propelling our country closer to this clean energy future with new efficient, reliable, and cost-competitive wind technologies and deployment strategies. In Fiscal Year 2023 (FY 2023), NREL received national acclaim for recent wind technology breakthroughs, applauded sustained decades of progress in wind energy research, and heralded new initiatives to support the next generation of wind development. This report and NREL's achievements of the last year set the stage for innovative research to come. Two NREL software innovations used to assess wind technology options were recognized with R&D 100 Awards. The Renewable Energy Potential (reV) model helps planners, developers, and researchers calculate wind energy capacity, generation, and cost for specific facilities, fleets and scenarios. NREL's Simulation and Emulation for Advanced Systems validates transmission and distribution solutions to minimize implementation risks. Both of these tools can be applied to a range of renewable solutions to cut costs and improve the reliability of systems in even the most remote locations. The laboratory commemorated landmark anniversaries for wind energy research facilities and programs managed by NREL. The National Wind Technology Center (NWTC) celebrated 30 years as a world-class hub for renewable energy research. An important component of the NWTC on NREL's Flatirons Campus, the one-of-a-kind 7-megawatt (MW) Controllable Grid Interface wind energy research apparatus, turned 10 this year. The Collegiate Wind Competition completed its tenth annual competition in May 2023. Six years after the grand challenges in wind energy science were first compiled, NREL brought together more than 100 wind energy experts from 15 countries to revisit the field's most pressing research needs. Other key new research initiatives examined ways to simultaneously address the needs for skilled wind energy workers and equitable job opportunities. NREL released the first national-level report evaluating offshore wind industry workforce gaps and ways to build a large, diverse pool of job candidates. The lab also co-hosted the International Partnering Forum's Offshore Wind Workforce Summit as part of its ongoing efforts to address the special challenges of that industry sector. NREL research and development (R&D) for the DOE Wind Energy Technologies Office (WETO) continues to build momentum in its efforts to combat climate change, create clean energy jobs, and promote energy justice. This report provides more detail on these top achievements and other accomplishments made by NREL and its partners during FY 2023 (between Oct. 1, 2022, and Sept. 30, 2023).

accomplishments↗

Economic Development Impact of 1,000 MW of Wind Energy in Texas

Texas has approximately 9,727 MW of wind energy capacity installed, making it a global leader in installed wind energy. As a result of the significant investment the wind industry has brought to Texas, it is important to better understand the economic development impacts of wind energy in Texas. This report analyzes the jobs and economic impacts of 1,000 MW of wind power generation in the state.The impacts highlighted in this report can be used in policy and planning decisions and can be scaled to get a sense of the economic development opportunities associated with other wind scenarios. This report can also inform stakeholders in other states about the potential economic impacts associated with the development of 1,000 MW of new wind power generation and the relationships of differentelements in the state economy.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Capacity Markets for Transactive Energy Systems

Capacity markets provide important incentives for resource adequacy in electricity markets and may become more important for providing sufficient revenue and generation capacity with changes to energy market prices driven by increasing levels of zero marginal cost resources. However, current capacity market designs also have important shortfalls that may limit the benefits they can provide to the future grid. Current capacity markets are primarily designed for participation from conventional thermal generators, but markets are evolving with increasing levels of variable renewable energy resources. However, further reforms may be necessary to enable more participation from DERs and demand-side resources. To understand the benefits and shortfalls of current capacity market design, we review the historical reasons electricity markets have needed capacity markets or capacity payments for resource adequacy, and how current capacity market designs may create challenges for incorporating increasing levels of DERs and demand-side resources. We then consider how transactive systems, which allow the coordination of bids and offers for DERs and demand-side resources through a market interaction approach, administered by a Distribution System Operator (DSO), can address traditional resource adequacy problems due to inelastic consumer demand. We also consider the need for a DSO-level capacity market in helping to meet resource adequacy, reliability, and other electricity market objectives. We find that because the missing money in electricity markets is largely driven by incentives to meet resource adequacy goals, and the bulk grid would always supply power to the DSO, that resource adequacy is unlikely to be a determining factor in the need for a DSO-level capacity market. Many current reliability problems could also be addressed by the incorporation of more flexible demand enabled with transactive energy systems. However, other DSO objectives, including resilience, reactive power, voltage control, environmental policies, and energy equity could lead to specific challenges that could be aided by a DSO-level capacity market. We consider the possibility of a DSO-level capacity market in addressing these challenges as well as its potential role in coordinating with the Independent System Operator (ISO) who operates the wholesale market. We conclude with suggestions for future research, including the need to develop analytical models of DSO-level capacity market designs to address these potential objectives and examine their implications for DSOs and consumers.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Quantum channel capacities

A brief general review is presented of the theory of information transmission capacities of quantum communication channels, which is a development of the classical Shannon theory. Unlike a classical communication channel, a quantum channel is characterised by a whole set of different capacities, which depend on the type of transmitted information (classical or quantum) and on additional resources used during transmission. The main characteristics of a quantum channel are considered: classical capacity, capacity assisted by entanglement between the channel input and output, quantum capacity and secret classical capacity. The unique role of the quantum entanglement property, which manifests itself, in particular, in a nonclassical phenomenon of capacity superadditivity, is emphasised. (paper)

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

A newly proposed isotherm model to predict Cs exchange with crystalline silicotitanate in tank waste simulants

The Zheng Anthony Miller (ZAM) computer model, a multicomponent ion exchange model used to predict the exchange of Group I metals onto crystalline silicotitanate (CST), has historically been used to predict Cs distribution coefficients from Hanford and Savannah River Site (SRS) tank waste simulants. Comparison of experimentally determined Cs distribution coefficients from tank waste simulants with ZAM isotherm model predictions indicate overprediction of Cs and K distribution coefficients for simple and complex simulants with the engineered form of CST. Additionally, recent changes in chemical composition/manufacturing of IONSIV TM R9140-B have resulted in increased Cs capacity from high-salt, highly alkaline solutions. Here, this work served to assess different isotherm models and refine equilibrium parameters to develop a model that can be applied to Hanford and SRS tank waste Cs removal efforts. Toward this goal, the Campbell Westesen Peterson (CWP) model was developed. This model utilized the experimentally determined Cs capacity, and simplified ZAM equilibria expressions to include only the binary substitution of Cs + or K + on the Na + sites. Equilibrium constants for these equations were refined using experimentally determined distribution coefficients. Overall, the CWP model significantly improved our ability to predict both Cs and K loading capacity from complex matrices.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Large Load Impacts to Distribution System Hosting Capacity

This work examined the impact of large loads on utility distribution system models using the Sandia-developed open-source software DREAMS. It was shown that hosting capacity varies with location and changes after any asset is added to, or removed from, a system. Despite the tested models having similar rated voltages and other characteristics, their thermal and voltage constrained hosting capacity varied over 2 MW. The addition of a 3-phase balanced constant power large load with power factor of 1.0 exhibited non-linear reductions to all voltage constrained hosting capacities. The reductions to thermal constrained hosting capacity from a load with similar characteristics was more linear, related to the size of the added load, and did not impact all model buses. Co-located capacitors were shown to accommodate demand that was beyond the baseline voltage constrained hosting capacity limits, however, the costs and benefits from this approach were found to not be 1:1 and required additional available thermal capacity.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Regional power system modeling for evaluating renewable energy development and CO2 emissions reduction in China

Highlights: • We introduce a capacity expansion and operation model for China's power system. • Reference carbon emissions of China's power sector exceed 5.1 billion tons in 2050. • Flexible district heating marginally increases the integration of renewable energy. • Ultra-high voltage transmission does not improve the integration by itself. • A complete spot market as a policy change could be crucial for the integration. - Abstract: This study demonstrates how a regional power system modeling tool could be applied to evaluate renewable energy development and emissions reduction with technology change and market reform. We introduce a capacity expansion and operation model with provincial details for China's power system – the Renewable Electricity Planning and Operation (REPO) Model. We compare the spatial and temporal variation of renewable energy development under three alternative scenarios that depict three potentially important technology and reform directions – flexible district heating technology, ultra-high voltage transmission technology and complete spot market to the reference scenario. Under the reference scenario, the share of non-hydro renewable energy in China's power sector will reach 11.3% and carbon emissions of the power sector will increase to 5.1 billion metric tons in 2050. With assumptions made in the flexible district heating technology, ultra-high voltage transmission technology and complete spot market scenario, the share of non-hydro renewable energy in the power sector could increase to 14.3%, 11.5%, and 23.7%, and carbon emissions of power sector will change by −0.3, +0.0, and −1.0 billion metric tons in 2050, respectively. Similar analyses could be extended to other developing countries that plan to deregulate and decarbonize their power systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗