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Simulation Center for Runaway Electron Avoidance and Mitigation (SCREAM) - NIMROD DIII-D Shattered Pellet Injection Disruption Mitigation and RE Modeling. Final report

Final technical report for UCSD and subcontractor contributions to DE-SC0016420, Simulation Center for Runaway Electron Avoidance and Mitigation (SCREAM). Project description. MHD modeling includeing runaway electron drift orbit calculations will be carried out for DII-D disruption mitigation scenarios. The effects of pitch angle scattering on the energy distribution of runaway electron population will be evaluated using one or more collision models integrated / coupled with the runaway orbit following model in the nimrod code. An extension of the test particle model will be developed to predict runaway electron generation considering both primary and secondary sources of runaway electron production. Simulations simultaneously modelling the effects of generation, confinement, and moderation-space losses during a DII-D rapid shutdown (mitigated disruption) will be completed.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Charge exchange transition probability for collisions between unlike ions and atoms within the adiabatic approximation

A simple formula for the transition probability for electron exchange between unlike ions and atoms is established within the adiabatic approximation by employing the Linear Combination of Atomic Orbitals (LCAO) method. The formula also involves an adiabatic parameter, introduced by Massey, and thus the difficulties arising from the internal energy defect and the adiabatic approximation are avoided. Specific reactions Li(+++) + H to Li(++) + H(+) and Be(4+) + H to Be(3+) + H(+) are considered as examples. The calculated capture cross section results of the present work are compared with the experimental data and with the calculation of other authors over the velocity range of 10(7) cm/sec to 10(8) cm/sec.

Xu, Y. J.↗

Analyzing a Mid-Air Collision Over the Hudson River

On August 8, 2009, a private airplane collided with a sightseeing helicopter over the Hudson River near Hoboken, New Jersey. All three people aboard the airplane, the pilot and two passengers, and all six people aboard the helicopter, the pilot and five passengers, were killed. The National Transportation Safety Board report on the accident identified inherent limitations of the see-and-avoid concept, inadequate regulations, and errors by the pilots and an air traffic controller as causing or contributing to the accident. This paper presents the results of analyzing the accident using the Systems-Theoretic Accident Model and Processes (STAMP) approach to determining accident causation.

Brown, Sean↗

Submerged AUV Charging Station

Autonomous Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) are becoming increasingly important for military surveillance and mine detection. Most AUVs are battery powered and have limited lifetimes of a few days to a few weeks. This greatly limits the distance that AUVs can travel underwater. Using a series of submerged AUV charging stations, AUVs could travel a limited distance to the next charging station, recharge its batteries, and continue to the next charging station, thus traveling great distances in a relatively short time, similar to the Old West “Pony Express.” One solution is to use temperature differences at various depths in the ocean to produce electricity, which is then stored in a submerged battery. It is preferred to have the upper buoy submerged a reasonable distance below the surface, so as not to be seen from above and not to be inadvertently destroyed by storms or ocean going vessels. In a previous invention, a phase change material (PCM) is melted (expanded) at warm temperatures, for example, 15 °C, and frozen (contracted) at cooler temperatures, for example, 8 °C. Tubes containing the PCM, which could be paraffin such as pentadecane, would be inserted into a container filled with hydraulic oil. When the PCM is melted (expanded), it pushes the oil out into a container that is pressurized to about 3,000 psi (approx equals 20.7 MPa). When a valve is opened, the high-pressure oil passes through a hydraulic motor, which turns a generator and charges a battery. The low-pressure oil is finally reabsorbed into the PCM canister when the PCM tubes are frozen (contracted). Some of the electricity produced could be used to control an external bladder or a motor to the tether line, such that depth cycling is continued for a very long period of time. Alternatively, after the electricity is generated by the hydraulic motor, the exiting low-pressure oil from the hydraulic motor could be vented directly to an external bladder on the AUV, such that filling of the bladder causes the AUV to rise, and emptying of the bladder allows the AUV to descend. This type of direct buoyancy control is much more energy efficient than using electrical pumps in that the inefficiencies of converting thermal energy to electrical energy to mechanical energy is avoided. AUV charging stations have been developed that use electricity produced by waves on floating buoys and that use electricity from solar photovoltaics on floating buoys. This is the first device that has absolutely no floating or visible parts, and is thus impervious to storms, inadvertent ocean vessel collisions, or enemy sabotage.

Jones, Jack A.↗

A structural examination and collision cross section database for over 500 metabolites and xenobiotics using drift tube ion mobility spectrometry

The confident identification of metabolites and xenobiotics in biological and environmental studies is an analytical challenge due to their immense dynamic range, vast chemical space and structural diversity. Ion mobility spectrometry (IMS) is widely used for small molecule analyses since it can separate isomeric species and be easily coupled with front end separations and mass spectrometry for multidimensional characterizations. However, to date IMS metabolomic and exposomic studies have been limited by an inadequate number of accurate collision cross section (CCS) values for small molecules, causing features to be detected but not confidently identified. In this work, we utilized drift tube IMS (DTIMS) to directly measure CCS values for over 450 small molecules including primary metabolites, secondary metabolites and xenobiotics. Since DTIMS measurements do not need calibrates, they avoid calibration errors which can cause CCS accuracy problems and difficulties identifying structurally similar molecules. Furthermore, all measurements were performed in triplicate in both positive and negative polarities with nitrogen gas and seven different electric fields, so that relative standard deviations (RSD) could be assessed for each molecule and structural differences studied. The primary metabolites selected for the database are from key metabolism pathways such as glycolysis, the pentose phosphate pathway, and the tricarboxylic acid (TCA) cycle, while the secondary metabolites consist of classes such as terpenes and flavonoids, and the xenobiotics represent a range of molecules from antibiotics to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons. Different CCS trends were observed for several of the diverse small molecule classes, allowing insight in their separations and a possible why of classifying unknowns. This CCS database and structural information are freely available for download at http://panomics.pnnl.gov/metabolites/ with new molecules being added monthly.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

UAS Pilot Performance Comparisons with Different Low Size, Weight and Power Sensor Ranges

The present study evaluated the performance of UAS pilots under four simulated low size, weight, and power (SwaP) sensor ranges: 1.5nmi, 2.0nmi, 2.5nmi, and 3.0nmi. Nine active-duty UAS pilots responded to scripted DAA conflicts against non-cooperative intruders while flying a simulated RQ-7 Shadow at varied speeds along a pre-filed flight path in Class E airspace. Findings revealed a linear effect of sensor range on alerting time and separation performance, with nearly every DAA well clear (DWC) violation and all Near Mid-Air Collision (NMAC) events occurring below 2.5nmi. Response time differences at these reduced ranges were negligible due to the high frequency of warning-level alerts that require an immediate response. Since caution alert duration was truncated to some degree by each tested declaration range, pilots were often unable to coordinate their avoidance maneuvers with ATC prior to their uploads. Nonetheless, the 2.5nmi range allowed minimum alerting times that were sufficient for acceptable pilot performance. The study findings will inform DAA system requirements for UAS with alternative surveillance equipment and aircraft performance capabilities. Implications on DAA display and sensor requirements are discussed.

unmanned aircraft systems↗

UAS Pilot Performance Comparisons with Different Low Size, Weight and Power Sensor Ranges

The present study evaluated the performance of UAS pilots under four simulated low size, weight, and power (SwaP) sensor ranges: 1.5nmi, 2.0nmi, 2.5nmi, and 3.0nmi. Nine active-duty UAS pilots responded to scripted DAA conflicts against non-cooperative intruders while flying a simulated RQ-7 Shadow at varied speeds along a pre-filed flight path in Class E airspace. Findings revealed a linear effect of sensor range on alerting time and separation performance, with nearly every DAA well clear (DWC) violation and all Near Mid-Air Collision (NMAC) events occurring below 2.5nmi. Response time differences at these reduced ranges were negligible due to the high frequency of warning-level alerts that require an immediate response. Since caution alert duration was truncated to some degree by each tested declaration range, pilots were often unable to coordinate their avoidance maneuvers with ATC prior to their uploads. Nonetheless, the 2.5nmi range allowed minimum alerting times that were sufficient for acceptable pilot performance. These findings will inform DAA system requirements for UAS with alternative surveillance equipment and aircraft performance capabilities. Implications on DAA display and sensor requirements are discussed.

unmanned aircraft systems↗

UAS Pilot Performance Comparisons with Different Low Size, Weight and Power Sensor Ranges

The present study evaluated the performance of UAS pilots under four simulated low size, weight, and power (SwaP) sensor ranges: 1.5nmi, 2.0nmi, 2.5nmi, and 3.0nmi. Nine active-duty UAS pilots responded to scripted DAA conflicts against non-cooperative intruders while flying a simulated RQ-7 Shadow at varied speeds along a pre-filed flight path in Class E airspace. Findings revealed a linear effect of sensor range on alerting time and separation performance, with nearly every DAA well clear (DWC) violation and all Near Mid-Air Collision (NMAC) events occurring below 2.5nmi. Response time differences at these reduced ranges were negligible due to the high frequency of warning-level alerts that require an immediate response. Since caution alert duration was truncated to some degree by each tested declaration range, pilots were often unable to coordinate their avoidance maneuvers with ATC prior to their uploads. Nonetheless, the 2.5nmi range allowed minimum alerting times that were sufficient for acceptable pilot performance. These findings will inform DAA system requirements for UAS with alternative surveillance equipment and aircraft performance capabilities. Implications on DAA display and sensor requirements are discussed.

unmanned aircraft systems↗

UAS Well Clear Recovery Against Non-Cooperative Intruders Using Vertical Maneuvers

This paper documents a study that drove the development of a mathematical expression in the detect-and-avoid (DAA) minimum operational performance standards (MOPS) for unmanned aircraft systems (UAS). This equation describes the conditions under which vertical maneuver guidance should be provided during recovery of DAA well clear separation with a non-cooperative VFR aircraft. Although the original hypothesis was that vertical maneuvers for DAA well clear recovery should only be offered when sensor vertical rate errors are small, this paper suggests that UAS climb and descent performance should be considered-in addition to sensor errors for vertical position and vertical rate-when determining whether to offer vertical guidance. A fast-time simulation study involving 108,000 encounters between a UAS and a non-cooperative visual-flight-rules aircraft was conducted. Results are presented showing that, when vertical maneuver guidance for DAA well clear recovery was suppressed, the minimum vertical separation increased by roughly 50 feet (or horizontal separation by 500 to 800 feet). However, the percentage of encounters that had a risk of collision when performing vertical well clear recovery maneuvers was reduced as UAS vertical rate performance increased and sensor vertical rate errors decreased. A class of encounter is identified for which vertical-rate error had a large effect on the efficacy of horizontal maneuvers due to the difficulty of making the correct left/right turn decision: crossing conflict with intruder changing altitude. Overall, these results support logic that would allow vertical maneuvers when UAS vertical performance is sufficient to avoid the intruder, based on the intruder's estimated vertical position and vertical rate, as well as the vertical rate error of the UAS' sensor.

UAS in the NAS↗

Influence of Cu/Li Ratio on the Welding Forces and Mechanical Properties of Two Bobbin Tool Friction Stir Welded Al-Cu-Li Alloys

Increasing space activities produce a high number of space objects and lead to increasing collision risks which urges leading industries to look for future removal strategies. Material substitution in order to raise demisability during atmospheric reentry is a possible solution. Modern aluminum lithium alloys are under consideration to replace high-temperature melting materials like titanium. Further, friction stir welding was proposed as suitable joining technology in order to avoid high heat inputs during manufacturing. In this work, two modern Al-Li-Cu alloys, AA 2060 and AA 2196, in peak-aged temper were welded using the stationary shoulder variant of bobbin tool friction stir welding. Identical process parameters led to defect-free welds in both alloys. The macrostructural and microstructural features are shown and analyzed. The welds were mechanically tested to an efficiency of 78 and 70% of the base metal ultimate tensile strength for AA 2060 T8 and AA 2196 T8, respectively. The process forces as well as the thermal cycle experienced by the workpiece material were used to explain the mechanical performance. The difference in composition regarding the Cu/Li ratio of the alloys was taken into account when the mechanical properties were correlated with the thermally affected microstructure of the weldments.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Stereo Vision-Based Obstacle Avoidance for Micro Air Vehicles Using an Egocylindrical Image Space Represntation

Micro air vehicles which operate autonomously at low altitude in cluttered environments require a method for on-board obstacle avoidance for safe operation. Prior approaches can be divided between purely reactive approaches, mapping low-level visual features directly to headings to maneuver the vehicle around the obstacle, and deliberative methods that use on-board 3-D sensors to create a 3-D, voxel-based world model, which is then used to generate collision free 3-D trajectories. In this paper, we use forward-looking stereo vision with a large horizontal and vertical field of view and project range from stereo into a novel robot-centered, cylindrical, inverse range map we call an egocylinder. With this implementation we reduce the complexity of our world representation from a 3D map to a 2.5D image space representation, which supports very efficient motion planning and collision-checking. Configuration space expansion is done very efficiently on the egocylinder as an image processing function. Deploying a fast reactive motion planner directly on the configuration space expanded egocylinder image, we demonstrate the effectiveness of this new approach experimentally in an indoor environment.

Micro air vehicles↗

Parametrization of Generalized Parton Distributions from 𝑡-Channel String Exchange in AdS Spaces

We introduce a string-based parametrization for nucleon quark and gluon generalized parton distributions (GPDs) that is valid for all skewness. Our approach leverages conformal moments, representing them as the sum of spin-𝑗 nucleon 𝐴-form factor and skewness-dependent spin-𝑗 nucleon 𝐷-form factor, derived from 𝑡-channel string exchange in AdS spaces consistent with Lorentz invariance and unitarity. This model-independent framework, satisfying the polynomiality condition due to Lorentz invariance, uses Mellin moments from empirical data to estimate these form factors. With just five Regge slope parameters, our method accurately produces various nucleon quark GPD types and symmetric nucleon gluon GPDs through pertinent Mellin-Barnes integrals. Our isovector nucleon quark GPD is in agreement with existing lattice data, promising to improve the empirical extraction and global analysis of nucleon GPDs in exclusive processes, by avoiding the deconvolution problem at any skewness, for the first time.

QCD phenomenology↗

Triton: Igiugig Fish Video Analysis (Project Report)

This document summarizes the analysis of video data collected around the Ocean Renewable Power Company’s RivGen® device in the Kvichak River during July and August 2015. Human (manual) analysis of the data was undertaken and used to develop automated algorithms to detect fish in the frames and describe interaction behavior. In addition, a web application, EyeSea, was developed to combine manual and automated processing, so that ultimately the automated algorithms could be used to identify where human analysis was needed (i.e., when fish are present in video frames). The aim of the project was to develop algorithms that could identify video frames with fish present that could then be used to enable faster manual analysis. However, the project has also identified recommendations for future data collection, and research that could help analysis and interpretation. The manual analysis started to look at all data from the start of the deployment; this was to ensure rare events were seen, and initially focused on night-time data when more fish were present. This process highlighted the amount of time taken to identify fish, and ultimately only 42.33 hours of video were reviewed due to the time-consuming analysis. The data were classified as ‘Fish’, when the reviewer was confident it was a fish, and ‘Maybe’ fish, when it was difficult to distinguish. This was based on the movement, shape and color characteristics. ‘Fish’ were further classified as ‘adult’, ‘juvenile’, or ‘unidentifiable’. Behavioral attributes were noted, which were broadly divided into passive and avoidance activities. In over 42 hours data, there were only 20 potential contact interactions, of which 3 were ‘Maybe’ classifications, 12 were juveniles and 5 were adults; on only one occasion was an actual contact confirmed, and this was an adult fish with the camera, not the turbine itself. This also highlights the difficulties associated with confirming a strike or collision event as occurring or being a near-miss. More interactions were detected at night; this was probably biased by nighttime artificial light use, which may have attracted fish, but also could have increased detection probability as the light is reflected from the fish itself. For the algorithm development, background subtraction, optical flow, and deep learning techniques were considered. The deep learning approach was determined as needing too much training data for this application, and therefore was not continued. The optical flow analysis was considered promising, but did not give immediate results, so would need further investigation. Therefore, background subtraction was the main focus. Three methods of background subtraction were tried: Robust Principal Components Analysis (RPCA), Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) and Video Background Extraction(ViBE). A classification technique was then applied to the foreground images to determine fish presence. Using this combination, it was found that fish could be accurately detected when occupying more pixels (>200 pixels, 98.2% correct; 100-200 pixels, 99.6% correct; 5-100 pixels, 85.4% correct; 2-5 pixels, 66.3% correct). In parallel, EyeSea was developed to convert the video data to a usable form and to enable manual and automated analysis of the data that would have a standardized output. Recommendations for further research, and standardized methods for data collection are given.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Grain formation in astronomical systems: A critical review of condensation processes

An analysis is presented of the assumption and the applicability of the three theoretical methods for calculating condensations in cosmic clouds where no pre-existing nuclei exist. The three procedures are: thermodynamic equilibrium calculations, nucleation theory, and a kinetic treatment which would take into account the characteristics of each individual collision. Thermodynamics provide detailed results on the composition temperature and composition of the condensate provided the system attains equilibrium. Because of the cosmic abundance mixture of elements, large supersaturations in some cases and low pressures, equilibrium is not expected in astronomical clouds. Nucleation theory, a combination of thermodynamics and kinetics, has the limitations of each scheme. Kinetics, not requiring equilibrium, avoids nearly all the thermodynamics difficulties but requires detailed knowledge of many reactions which thermodynamics avoids. It appears to be the only valid way to treat grain formation in space. A review of experimental studies is given.

Donn, B.↗

3D Simulations of the Early Martian Hydrological Cycle Mediated by a H2-CO2 Greenhouse

For decades, the scientific community has been trying to reconcile abundant evidence for fluvialactivity on Noachian and early Hesperian Mars with the faint young Sun and reasonableconstraints on ancient atmospheric pressure and composition. Recently, the investigation of H2-CO2 collision-induced absorption has opened up a new avenue to warm Noachian Mars. We usethe ROCKE-3D global climate model to simulate plausible states of the ancient Martian climatewith this absorptive warming and reasonable constraints on surface paleopressure. We find that1.5-2 bar CO2-dominated atmospheres with ≥3% H2 can produce global mean surfacetemperatures above freezing, while also providing sufficient warming to avoid surfaceatmospheric CO2 condensation at 0°-45° obliquity. Simulations conducted with both moderntopography and a paleotopography, before Tharsis formed, highlight the importance of Tharsis asa cold trap for water on the planet. Additionally, we find that low obliquity (modern and 0°) ismore conducive to rainfall over valley network locations than high (45°) obliquity. PLAIN LANGUAGE SUMMARY Much evidence tells us that ancient Mars had liquid water on its surface. But reconciling thatwith the fainter young Sun and reasonable constraints on Mars' early atmosphere is challenging.We use a 3D global climate model with an atmosphere containing some amount of hydrogen (apossible greenhouse gas) to study Mars' early hydrological cycle and compare it to the geologicalevidence of surface liquid water billions of years ago. We find that hydrogen and carbon dioxidetogether in an atmosphere twice as thick as modern Earth can warm early Mars above thefreezing point of water and that a low axial tilt produces rainfall patterns that best match thegeologic evidence

Scott D Guzewich↗

Drift kinetic theory of alpha transport by tokamak perturbations

We report that upcoming tokamak experiments fuelled with deuterium and tritium are expected to have large alpha particle populations. Such experiments motivate new attention to the theory of alpha particle confinement and transport. A key topic is the interaction of alpha particles with perturbations to the tokamak fields, including those from ripple and magnetohydrodynamic modes like Alfvén eigenmodes. These perturbations can transport alphas, leading to changed localization of alpha heating, loss of alpha power and damage to device walls. Alpha interaction with these perturbations is often studied with single-particle theory. In contrast, we derive a drift kinetic theory to calculate the alpha heat flux resulting from arbitrary perturbation frequency and periodicity (provided these can be studied drift kinetically). Novel features of the theory include the retention of a large effective collision frequency resulting from the resonant alpha collisional boundary layer, correlated interactions over many poloidal transits and finite orbit effects. Heat fluxes are considered for the example cases of ripple and the toroidal Alfvén eigenmode (TAE). The ripple heat flux is small. The TAE heat flux is significant and scales with the square of the perturbation amplitude, allowing the derivation of constraints on mode amplitude for avoidance of significant alpha depletion. A simple saturation condition suggests that TAEs in one upcoming experiment will not cause significant alpha transport via the mechanisms in this theory. However, saturation above the level suggested by the simple condition, but within numerical and experimental experience, which could be accompanied by the onset of stochasticity, could cause significant transport.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Similarity Downselection: Finding the n Most Dissimilar Molecular Conformers for Reference-Free Metabolomics

Computational methods for creating in silico libraries of molecular descriptors (e.g., collision cross sections) are becoming increasingly prevalent due to the limited number of authentic reference materials available for traditional library building. These so-called “reference-free metabolomics” methods require sampling sets of molecular conformers in order to produce high accuracy property predictions. Due to the computational cost of the subsequent calculations for each conformer, there is a need to sample the most relevant subset and avoid repeating calculations on conformers that are nearly identical. The goal of this study is to introduce a heuristic method of finding the most dissimilar conformers from a larger population in order to help speed up reference-free calculation methods and maintain a high property prediction accuracy. Finding the set of the n items most dissimilar from each other out of a larger population becomes increasingly difficult and computationally expensive as either n or the population size grows large. Because there exists a pairwise relationship between each item and all other items in the population, finding the set of the n most dissimilar items is different than simply sorting an array of numbers. For instance, if you have a set of the most dissimilar n = 4 items, one or more of the items from n = 4 might not be in the set n = 5. An exact solution would have to search all possible combinations of size n in the population exhaustively. We present an open-source software called similarity downselection (SDS), written in Python and freely available on GitHub. SDS implements a heuristic algorithm for quickly finding the approximate set(s) of the n most dissimilar items. We benchmark SDS against a Monte Carlo method, which attempts to find the exact solution through repeated random sampling. We show that for SDS to find the set of n most dissimilar conformers, our method is not only orders of magnitude faster, but it is also more accurate than running Monte Carlo for 1,000,000 iterations, each searching for set sizes n = 3–7 out of a population of 50,000. We also benchmark SDS against the exact solution for example small populations, showing that SDS produces a solution close to the exact solution in these instances. Using theoretical approaches, we also demonstrate the constraints of the greedy algorithm and its efficacy as a ratio to the exact solution.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Fluctuations in Conjunction Miss Distance Projections as Time Approaches Time of Closest Approach

A responsibility of the Trajectory Operations Officer is to ensure that the International Space Station (ISS) avoids colliding with debris. United States Space Command (USSPACECOM) tracks and catalogs a portion of the debris in Earth orbit, but only objects with a perigee less than 600 km and a radar cross section (RCS) greater than 10 cm-objects that, in fact, represent only a small fraction of the objects in Earth orbit. To accommodate for this, the ISS uses shielding to protect against collisions with smaller objects. This study provides a better understanding of how quickly, and to what degree, USSPACECOM projections tend to converge to the final, true miss distance. The information included is formulated to better predict the behavior of miss distance data during real-time operations. It was determined that the driving components, in order of impact on miss distance fluctuations, are energy dissipation rate (EDR), RCS, and inclination. Data used in this analysis, calculations made, and conclusions drawn are stored in Microsoft Excel log sheets. A separate log sheet, created for each conjunction, contains information such as predicted miss distances, apogee and perigee of debris orbit, EDR, RCS, inclination, tracks and observations, statistical data, and other evaluation/orbital parameters.

Christian, John A., III↗