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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1979

Computer analysis of shells of revolution using asymptotic results

It is suggested that asymptotic results for the behavior of thin shells can be incorporated in a general computer code for the analysis of a complex shell structure. The advantage when compared to existing finite difference or finite element codes is a substantial reduction in computational labor with the capability of working to a specified level of accuracy. A reduction in user preparation time and dependance on user judgment is also gained, since mesh spacing can be internally generated. The general theory is described in this paper, as well as the implementation in the computer code FAST 1 (Functional Algorithm for Shell Theory) for the analysis of the general axisymmetric shell structure with axisymmetric loading.

Steele, C. R.↗
NASA NTRS1976

Survey of computer programs for prediction of crash response and of its experimental validation

The author seeks to critically assess the potentialities of the mathematical and hybrid simulators which predict post-impact response of transportation vehicles. A strict rigorous numerical analysis of a complex phenomenon like crash may leave a lot to be desired with regard to the fidelity of mathematical simulation. Hybrid simulations on the other hand which exploit experimentally observed features of deformations appear to hold a lot of promise. MARC, ANSYS, NONSAP, DYCAST, ACTION, WHAM II and KRASH are among some of the simulators examined for their capabilities with regard to prediction of post impact response of vehicles. A review of these simulators reveals that much more by way of an analysis capability may be desirable than what is currently available. NASA's crashworthiness testing program in conjunction with similar programs of various other agencies, besides generating a large data base, will be equally useful in the validation of new mathematical concepts of nonlinear analysis and in the successful extension of other techniques in crashworthiness.

Kamat, M. P.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Molecular Analyzer for Complex Refractory Organic-Rich Surfaces (MACROS)

The Molecular Analyzer for Complex Refractory Organic-rich Surfaces, MACROS, is a novel instrument package being developed at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. MACROS enables the in situ characterization of a sample's composition by coupling two powerful techniques into one compact instrument package: (1) laser desorption/ionization time-of-flight mass spectrometry (LDMS) for broad detection of inorganic mineral composition and non-volatile organics, and (2) liquid-phase extraction methods to gently isolate the soluble organic and inorganic fraction of a planetary powder for enrichment and detailed analysis by liquid chromatographic separation coupled to LDMS. The LDMS is capable of positive and negative ion detection, precision mass selection, and fragment analysis. Two modes are included for LDMS: single laser LDMS as the broad survey mode and two step laser mass spectrometry (L2MS). The liquid-phase extraction will be done in a newly designed extraction module (EM) prototype, providing selectivity in the analysis of a complex sample. For the sample collection, a diamond drill front end will be used to collect rock/icy powder. With all these components and capabilities together, MACROS offers a versatile analytical instrument for a mission targeting an icy moon, carbonaceous asteroid, or comet, to fully characterize the surface composition and advance our understanding of the chemical inventory present on that body.

Getty, Stephanie A.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Exploring Sensitivity of ICF Outputs to Design Parameters in Experiments Using Machine Learning

We report building a sustainable burn platform in inertial confinement fusion (ICF) requires an understanding of the complex coupling of physical processes and the effects that key experimental design changes have on implosion performance. While simulation codes are used to model ICF implosions, incomplete physics and the need for approximations deteriorate their predictive capability. Identification of relationships between controllable design inputs and measurable outcomes can help guide the future design of experiments and development of simulation codes, which can potentially improve the accuracy of the computational models used to simulate ICF implosions. In this article, we leverage developments in machine learning (ML) and methods for ML feature importance/sensitivity analysis to identify complex relationships in ways that are difficult to process using expert judgment alone. We present work using random forest (RF) regression for prediction of yield, velocity, and other experimental outcomes given a suite of design parameters, along with an assessment of important relationships and uncertainties in the prediction model. We show that RF models are capable of learning and predicting on ICF experimental data with high accuracy, and we extract feature importance metrics that provide insight into the physical significance of different controllable design inputs for various ICF design configurations. These results can be used to augment expert intuition and simulation results for optimal design of future ICF experiments.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

X-Band Radar and Surface-Based Observations of Cold-Season Precipitation in Western Colorado’s Complex Terrain

Abstract Hydrologic processes associated with intermountain cold-season precipitation in the Upper Colorado River basin have important impacts on avalanche forecasting and water resource management. However, traditional weather radar networks struggle with observations in this complex terrain. Data collected during the Study of Precipitation, the Lower Atmosphere, and the Surface for Hydrometeorology (SPLASH) and its sister campaign, Surface Atmosphere Integrated Field Laboratory (SAIL) in the East River watershed of western Colorado, are used to examine a multistorm period from 23 December 2021 to 1 January 2022 that contributed 35% of the total winter precipitation in this watershed. Dual-polarization X-band radar and disdrometer measurements show ∼30-mm differences in precipitation amount at two sites in proximity over four distinct storm events within the period. Wind patterns, synoptic forcings, microphysical characteristics of precipitation, and surface meteorology are analyzed to explain the observed spatial variability of cold-season precipitation in complex mountainous terrain. Analysis shows that differences over time within this event are mainly accounted for by synoptic forcings, such as frontal passages; differences between sites are accounted for by the impact of variations in local wind patterns on precipitation microphysics. Patterns of surface precipitation intensity are compared and found to be correlated with X-band radar signatures; a relationship between a strong dendritic growth stage and intense low-density surface precipitation is reinforced by this study. This relationship demonstrates the importance of particle growth mechanisms on surface snowfall patterns in high-altitude complex terrain, underscoring the importance of realistic microphysical parameterizations. Significance Statement The amount and density of snowpack from western Colorado winter storms have significant impacts on water resources in the Upper Colorado River basin. Snowpack characteristics are affected by small-scale differences in how snow forms in the atmosphere. These differences are hard to study in the complex terrain of the Rockies, but data from the SPLASH and SAIL field campaigns allows us to investigate how snow crystal formation and mountain-driven wind patterns affect snow near the surface. Our study finds that snow crystal growth varies over small space and time scales and is likely controlled by the terrain beneath a given location and resultant local wind patterns. These results imply that predicting snowpack in the Rockies requires properly representing local wind patterns and crystal growth processes in models.

Heflin, Stella↗
NASA NTRS2017

Structure in the 3D Galaxy Distribution: III. Fourier Transforming the Universe: Phase and Power Spectra

We demonstrate the effectiveness of a relatively straightforward analysis of the complex 3D Fourier transform of galaxy coordinates derived from redshift surveys. Numerical demonstrations of this approach are carried out on a volume-limited sample of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey redshift survey. The direct unbinned transform yields a complex 3D data cube quite similar to that from the Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) of finely binned galaxy positions. In both cases deconvolution of the sampling window function yields estimates of the true transform. Simple power spectrum estimates from these transforms are roughly consistent with those using more elaborate methods. The complex Fourier transform characterizes spatial distributional properties beyond the power spectrum in a manner different from (and we argue is more easily interpreted than) the conventional multi-point hierarchy. We identify some threads of modern large scale inference methodology that will presumably yield detections in new wider and deeper surveys.

Galactic clusters↗
NASA NTRS2015

Forward Bay Cover Separation Modeling and Testing for the Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle

Spacecraft multi-body separation events during atmospheric descent require complex testing and analysis to validate the flight separation dynamics models used to verify no re-contact. The NASA Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV) architecture includes a highly-integrated Forward Bay Cover (FBC) jettison assembly design that combines parachutes and piston thrusters to separate the FBC from the Crew Module (CM) and avoid re-contact. A multi-disciplinary team across numerous organizations examined key model parameters and risk areas to develop a robust but affordable test campaign in order to validate and verify the FBC separation event for Exploration Flight Test-1 (EFT-1). The FBC jettison simulation model is highly complex, consisting of dozens of parameters varied simultaneously, with numerous multi-parameter interactions (coupling and feedback) among the various model elements, and encompassing distinct near-field, mid-field, and far-field regimes. The test campaign was composed of component-level testing (for example gas-piston thrusters and parachute mortars), ground FBC jettison tests, and FBC jettison air-drop tests that were accomplished by a highly multi-disciplinary team. Three ground jettison tests isolated the testing of mechanisms and structures to anchor the simulation models excluding aerodynamic effects. Subsequently, two air-drop tests added aerodynamic and parachute elements, and served as integrated system demonstrations, which had been preliminarily explored during the Orion Pad Abort-1 (PA-1) flight test in May 2010. Both ground and drop tests provided extensive data to validate analytical models and to verify the FBC jettison event for EFT-1. Additional testing will be required to support human certification of this separation event, for which NASA and Lockheed Martin are applying knowledge from Apollo and EFT-1 testing and modeling to develop a robust human-rated FBC separation event.

Ali, Yasmin↗
DOE OSTI2020

Deep Learning Prediction of Interspecies Interactions from Self-organized Spatiotemporal Patterns of Co-evolving Organisms

Microorganisms colonizing natural habits such as soils co-evolve to form specific spatial patterns through interspecies interactions. These self-organized patterns are a key ecological phenotype, which provides critical information on their interaction mechanisms. However, conventional network inference techniques that analyze species population data in bulk have yet to be extended to account for such spatial heterogeneity. Here we proposed supervised deep learning as a new network inference tool for predicting interspecies interactions from spatiotemporal patterns of microbial evolution. Due to lack of biological imaging data that can be used for training deep learning networks, we used in silico data generated from high-fidelity agent-based models to determine model structure and parameters. Even though networks were trained under simple configurations where interaction coefficients are assumed to be spatially invariant, we demonstrated that the resulting model can be utilized to successfully predict spatial variation of interactions in more complex domains (i.e., configured with a context-dependent mixture of interaction coefficients) as well as in simple domains without further training. In the further test against real biological data obtained through imaging experiments of a binary consortium (Pseudomonas fluorescens and a mutant of Escherichia coli), our model also predicted the dramatic shifts in interactions of the two organisms across different environmental contexts. Through various successful demonstrations in this work, the combined use of the agent-based model and machine learning algorithm provides a means to use new type of data - microscopic images - for extracting microbial interactions, therefore presenting itself as a useful tool for the analysis of more complex microbial community interactions.

Lee, Joon-Yong↗
NASA NTRS2017

Structure in the 3D Galaxy Distribution. III. Fourier Transforming the Universe: Phase and Power Spectra

We demonstrate the effectiveness of a relatively straightforward analysis of the complex 3D Fourier transform of galaxy coordinates derived from redshift surveys. Numerical demonstrations of this approach are carried out on a volume-limited sample of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey redshift survey. The direct unbinned transform yields a complex 3D data cube quite similar to that from the Fast Fourier Transform of finely binned galaxy positions. In both cases, deconvolution of the sampling window function yields estimates of the true transform. Simple power spectrum estimates from these transforms are roughly consistent with those using more elaborate methods. The complex Fourier transform characterizes spatial distributional properties beyond the power spectrum in a manner different from (and we argue is more easily interpreted than) the conventional multipoint hierarchy. We identify some threads of modern large-scale inference methodology that will presumably yield detections in new wider and deeper surveys.

Galaxies↗
DOE OSTI2024

To Derive or Not to Derive: I/O Libraries Take Charge of Derived Quantities Computation

The ever-increasing volume of data produced by HPC simulations necessitates scalable methods for data exploration and knowledge extraction. Scientific data analysis often involves complex queries across distributed datasets, requiring manipulation of multiple primary variables and generating derived data that needs to be handled efficiently, creating challenges for applications that need to parse many large datasets. Relying on individual applications to handle all intermediate data generally leads to redundant computations across studies and unnecessary data transfers. In this paper, we investigate the performance of different approaches where applications define derived variables as quantities of interest (QoIs) and offload the computation and transfer of these QoIs to the I/O library. This significantly reduces redundancy and optimizes data movement across the distributed storage and processing infrastructure by allowing control over when and where derived variables are computed. We present a detailed analysis of the performance-storage trade-offs associated with different solutions and showcase results for our study on two large-scale datasets created from climate and combustion simulations.

Gainaru, Ana↗
NASA NTRS1994

Gender- and age-related differences in heart rate dynamics: are women more complex than men?

OBJECTIVES. This study aimed to quantify the complex dynamics of beat-to-beat sinus rhythm heart rate fluctuations and to determine their differences as a function of gender and age. BACKGROUND. Recently, measures of heart rate variability and the nonlinear "complexity" of heart rate dynamics have been used as indicators of cardiovascular health. Because women have lower cardiovascular risk and greater longevity than men, we postulated that there are important gender-related differences in beat-to-beat heart rate dynamics. METHODS. We analyzed heart rate dynamics during 8-min segments of continuous electrocardiographic recording in healthy young (20 to 39 years old), middle-aged (40 to 64 years old) and elderly (65 to 90 years old) men (n = 40) and women (n = 27) while they performed spontaneous and metronomic (15 breaths/min) breathing. Relatively high (0.15 to 0.40 Hz) and low (0.01 to 0.15 Hz) frequency components of heart rate variability were computed using spectral analysis. The overall "complexity" of each heart rate time series was quantified by its approximate entropy, a measure of regularity derived from nonlinear dynamics ("chaos" theory). RESULTS. Mean heart rate did not differ between the age groups or genders. High frequency heart rate power and the high/low frequency power ratio decreased with age in both men and women (p < 0.05). The high/low frequency power ratio during spontaneous and metronomic breathing was greater in women than men (p < 0.05). Heart rate approximate entropy decreased with age and was higher in women than men (p < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS. High frequency heart rate spectral power (associated with parasympathetic activity) and the overall complexity of heart rate dynamics are higher in women than men. These complementary findings indicate the need to account for gender-as well as age-related differences in heart rate dynamics. Whether these gender differences are related to lower cardiovascular disease risk and greater longevity in women requires further study.

NASA Discipline Cardiopulmonary↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Enabling Interoperability in Earth System Digital Twins (ESDT): Integrating Observations, Models, and AI for Actionable Insights Through NASA'S Intelligent Systems Technology Program

NASA’s Intelligent Systems Technology Program (IST) is driving a paradigm shift in Earth science through the development of Earth System Digital Twins (ESDT). These integrated information systems create a dynamic "digital replica" of the Earth by harmonizing continuous, multi-source observations with high-fidelity models and state-of-the-art artificial intelligence (AI) that enable “What now?”, “What next?”, and “What if?” scenario building. These scenarios are reflected in NASA IST’s series of ESDTs, from the Coastal Zone Digital Twin that integrates complex data on the current state of the Chesapeake Bay to the Terrestrial Environmental Rapid-Replication and Assimilation Hydrometeorological (TerraHydro) AI-based ESDT that forecasts water movement across Earth’s surface, to the Agriculture Land Information System (AgLIS) which can be used to assess optimal planting dates and crop yield estimates. By bridging the gap between vast data archives and actionable insights, these projects enable a system-of-systems approach to understanding complex, interacting Earth processes. This poster will highlight recent innovations and future directions from NASA’s ESDT initiatives: Continuous Data Assimilation & Multi-Source Fusion. A core requirement of the ESDT work is the transition from static models to dynamic "living" replicas. This involves creating frameworks for the continual assimilation of near-real-time data from uncoordinated, heterogeneous sources, including satellite observations and airborne assets, and ground-based Internet of Things (IoT) sensors. These systems link design, operational status, and environmental data, ensuring the digital twin accurately reflects the current state of the physical Earth system. High-Fidelity Hybrid Modeling & Computational Acceleration to enable interactive "what-if" explorations, programs are moving beyond traditional, slow physical solvers by developing fast surrogate machine learning models and Deep Generative Models (DGMs). These hybrid approaches use neural networks to emulate complex physics, such as cloud feedback or ocean dynamics, at a fraction of the original computing cost, often leveraging advanced hardware like Graphics Processing Units (GPUs) to achieve the necessary scale. Federated Ecosystems & Interoperable Frameworks rather than building isolated tools, NASA IST is moving toward federated ESDTs and reusable analytic collaborative frameworks. This theme focuses on interoperability standards and common ontologies that allow specialized digital twins to interact and share data. This system-of-systems architecture supports multi-discipline investigations, such as analyzing how upstream watershed changes impact downstream urban flooding or how wildfire emissions affect regional air quality. By leveraging these advancements, ESDTs empower researchers and decision-makers to conduct real-time analysis and run complex hypothetical scenarios, ultimately improving our understanding of Earth’s evolving systems and informing critical real-world applications.

Earth System↗
DOE OSTI2023

Methodology for Thermodynamic Analysis Coupled with Computational Fluid Dynamics Modeling for Casting a Novel Aluminum–Cerium Alloy

In this paper, we present the results of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analysis to assess castability, porosity, molten metal fluidity and other technological properties of a new Al-Ce alloy. A thermodynamic analysis of a new Al-Ce alloy is done to obtain the physical properties as a function of temperature across both solid and liquid phases. These properties are then used to build the CFD of model the full casting process from initial pouring through to final solidification of the part, here an example of a heavy duty mor mount is used. While several excellent commercial CFD codes exists this process shows that CFD can be used to assess the capability of the alloy to properly fill the mold, as well as give predictions where scattered porosity or large-scale defects may occur in the casting. Further, unlike the commercially available software (e.g., ProCAST, SOLIDCast , MAGMASOFT®) the complex 3D-analysis of the stress / strain fields in cast parts is not performed at this time. However, the availability of free software for assessing the required thermodynamic / thermo-physical properties of new alloys (OpenCALPHAD) and CFD codes such as OpenFOAM® makes the developed option attractive and economical, especially for the analysis of new Al-Ce alloys, for which the available data does not exist.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS1995

Improved CDMA Performance Using Parallel Interference Cancellation

This report considers a general parallel interference cancellation scheme that significantly reduces the degradation effect of user interference but with a lesser implementation complexity than the maximum-likelihood technique. The scheme operates on the fact that parallel processing simultaneously removes from each user the interference produced by the remaining users accessing the channel in an amount proportional to their reliability. The parallel processing can be done in multiple stages. The proposed scheme uses tentative decision devices with different optimum thresholds at the multiple stages to produce the most reliably received data for generation and cancellation of user interference. The 1-stage interference cancellation is analyzed for three types of tentative decision devices, namely, hard, null zone, and soft decision, and two types of user power distribution, namely, equal and unequal powers. Simulation results are given for a multitude of different situations, in particular, those cases for which the analysis is too complex.

Simon, Marvin↗
NASA NTRS2012

Integrated Simulation Design Challenges to Support TPS Repair Operations

During the Orbiter Repair Maneuver (ORM) operations planned for Return to Flight (RTF), the Shuttle Remote Manipulator System (SRMS) must grapple the International Space Station (ISS), undock the Orbiter, maneuver it through a long duration trajectory, and orient it to an EVA crewman poised at the end of the Space Station Remote Manipulator System (SSRMS) to facilitate the repair of the Thermal Protection System (TPS). Once repair has been completed and confirmed, then the SRMS proceeds back through the trajectory to dock the Orbiter to the Orbiter Docking System. In order to support analysis of the complex dynamic interactions of the integrated system formed by the Orbiter, ISS, SRMS, and SSMS during the ORM, simulation tools used for previous ‘nominal’ mission support required substantial enhancements. These upgrades were necessary to provide analysts with the capabilities needed to study integrated system performance. Prevalent throughout this ORM operation is a dynamically varying topology. In other words, the ORM starts with the SRMS grappled to the mated Shuttle/ISS stack (closed loop topology), moves to an open loop chain topology consisting of the Shuttle, SRMS, and ISS, and then, at the repair configuration, extends the chain topology to one consisting of the Shuttle, SMS, ISS, and SSRMS/EVA crewman. The resulting long dynamic chain of vehicles and manipulators may exhibit significant motion between the Shuttle worksite and the EVA crewman due to the system flexibility throughout the topology (particularly within the SRMS/SSRMS joints and links). Since the attachment points of both manipulators span the flexible structure of the ISS, simulation analysis may also need to take that into consideration. Moreover, due to the lengthy time duration associated with the maneuver and repair, orbital effects become a factor and require the ISS vehicle control system to maintain active attitude control. Several facets of the ORM operation make the associated analytical efforts different from previous mission support, including: (1) the magnitude of the SRMS handled payload (Le., Orbiter class), (2) the orbital effects induced on the integrated system consisting of the large Shuttle and ISS masses connected by a light flexible SRMS, (3) long duration environmental consequences due to the lengthy operational times associated with the maneuver and repair of the TPS, (4) active attitude control (as opposed to free drift) interacting with the SRMS and SSRMS manipulators (also due to the length of the maneuver and repair), (5) relative dynamics between the EVA crewman and thc worksite influenced by the extended flexible topology. In order to meet these analysis challenges, an ORM simulation architecture was developed leveraging upon numerous pre-existing simulation elements to analyze the various subsystems individually. For example, core manipulator subsystem simulations for both the SRMS and SSRMS were originally combined to provide the dual-arm dynamics topology simulation (in the absence of orbital dynamics and vehicle control). This capability was later merged with the simulation used to analyze SRMS loading with a heavy payload in the orbital environment with an active payload control system (in this case, the ISS Attitude Control System (ACS)), configured for the ORM. The resulting worksite dynamics simulation, based off of the modified ORM simulation, provided the extended topological chain of vehicles and manipulators, while taking into account the orbital effects of both the Shuttle and ISS (as well as its ACS). Verification and validation (V&V) of these integrated simulations became a challenge in itself. A systematic approach needed to be developed such that integration simulation results could be tested against previous constituent simulations upon which these simulations were built. General V&V categories included: (1) core orbital state propagation, (2), stand-alone SRMS, (3) stand-alone SSRMS, (4) stand-alone ISS ACS, (5) integrated Shuttle, SRMS, ISS (with active ACS) in the orbital environment, and (5) dual-arm SRMS/SSRMS dynamics topology. Integrated simulation V&V run suites were created and correlated to verification runs from subsystem simulations, in order to establish the validity of the results. This paper discusses the simulation design challenges encountered while developing simulation capabilities to mirror the ORM operations. The paper also describes the incremental build approach that was utilized, starting with the subsystem simulation elements and integration into increasing more complex simulations until the resulting ORM worksite dynamics simulation had been assembled. Furthermore, the paper presents an overall integrated simulation V&V methodology based upon a subsystem level testing, integrated comparisons, and phased checkout.

Thermal Protection System↗
DOE OSTI2021

Raman Spectroscopy Coupled with Chemometric Analysis for Speciation and Quantitative Analysis of Aqueous Phosphoric Acid Systems

Complex chemical systems that exhibit varied and matrix-dependent speciation are notoriously difficult to monitor and characterize on-line and in real-time. Optical spectroscopy is an ideal tool for in situ characterization of chemical species that can enable quantification as well as species identification. Chemometric modeling, a multivariate method, has been successfully paired with optical spectroscopy to enable measurement of analyte concentrations even in complex solutions where univariate methods such as Beer’s law analysis fail. Here, Raman spectroscopy is used to quantify the concentration of phosphoric acid and its three deprotonated forms during a titration. In this system, univariate approaches would be difficult to apply due to multiple species being present simultaneously within the solution as pH is varied. Locally Weighted Regression (LWR) modeling was used to determine phosphate concentration from spectral signature. LWR results, in tandem with Multivariate Curve Resolution modeling, provide direct measurement of the concentration of each phosphate species using only the Raman signal. Furthermore, results are presented within the context of fundamental solution chemistry, including Pitzer equations to compensate for activity coefficients and non-idealities associated with high ionic strength systems.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
NASA NTRS2022

Uncertainty Models for the Hybrid Parametric Variation Method of Uncertainty Quantification; Analysis

There is some level of uncertainty in every finite element model (FEM), which flows to a level of uncertainty in predicted results. The purpose of uncertainty quantification (UQ) is to provide statistical bounds on prediction accuracy based on model uncertainty. This is distinct from model updating, which attempts to modify models to improve their accuracy. UQ does not improve the accuracy of models, but accepts that the models are inherently inaccurate and attempts to quantify the impact of that inaccuracy on predicted results. Previously, an alternate method for UQ, called the Hybrid Parametric Variation (HPV) method, was applied to Space Launch System (SLS) Hurty/Craig-Bampton (HCB) components to predict system-level statistics for launch vehicle attitude control transfer functions and core stage section loads due to buffet. The HPV method combines a parametric variation of the HCB fixed-interface (FI) modal frequencies with a nonparametric variation (NPV) method that randomly varies the HCB mass and stiffness matrices as Wishart random matrix distributions using random matrix theory (RMT). Alternatively, the most common method for modeling uncertainty in the structural dynamics community is a parametric approach, which varies physical parameters in the model. However, there are several disadvantages associated with the parametric method. Determining a reduced set of parameters that have a significant impact on the system response can be time consuming, and the selected parameter probability distributions are rarely reliably known. Therefore, in practice, the parameters are surrogates for the actual errors, and the link to parameter uncertainty is unknown. Another major drawback is that the uncertainty that can be represented is limited to the form of the nominal FEM. It is the experience of the authors that based on numerous aerospace programs, almost all FEM errors are in form rather than parameter values. This hypothesis is supported by the observation of the authors that it is almost never possible to ‘tune’ a FEM to match modal test results by only modifying model parameters. Model-form uncertainty cannot be directly represented by FEM input parameters nor included in a parametric approach. However, model-form uncertainty can be modeled using RMT, where a probability distribution is developed for the matrix ensemble of interest. The major advantage of the NPV method is that it covers errors in model form. The HPV method anchors uncertainty at the HCB component level to component modal test results by matching the HCB and test modes based on mode descriptions or other methods, and then applying differing levels of frequency variation. The specific variations depend on the confidence to which a component FEM has been validated through modal testing. The NPV method is layered on the frequency variation to match modal test self-orthogonality and cross-orthogonality (XO) results. Once the component uncertainty models are identified, they are assembled, and the uncertainty is propagated to the system level using a Monte Carlo (MC) analysis approach that generates statistics for system-level predictions This provides a UQ method that can be traced to test data, which can be updated as additional data and improved correlated models become available. The purpose of this paper is to collect and present all of the theory for HPV that has been previously published in reports and papers and to present examples of its application. Specifically, component uncertainty models based on the dispersion of corresponding mass and stiffness matrices using proposed test/analysis correlation metrics are investigated. The first example is purely academic so that the true answers are known, and the validity of the HPV method and the corresponding uncertainty models can be determined. The purpose of this paper is to collect and present all of the theory for HPV that has been previously published in reports and papers and to present examples of its application. Specifically, component uncertainty models based on the dispersion of corresponding mass and stiffness matrices using proposed test/analysis correlation metrics are investigated. The first example is purely academic so that the true answers are known, and the validity of the HPV method and the corresponding uncertainty models can be determined. The second example is an application to a component that is design specific to the SLS. Based on this work and other assessments, the HPV method provides another tool to the toolset used for complex system UQ analysis. From experience gathered to date using the HPV method, additional design specific applications must be investigated to provide further confidence in the validity of the HPV method of UQ analysis.

Uncertainty quantification↗