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Nuclear Smuggling Detection and Deterrence FY 2016 Data Analysis Annual Report

The National Nuclear Security Administration’s Office of Nuclear Smuggling Detection and Deterrence (NSDD) has facilitated the installation of more than 3,500 radiation portal monitors (RPMs) at 606 sites in 56 countries worldwide. This collection of RPMs represents the world’s largest network of radiation detectors and provides one element in the defense-in-depth approach that supports the Global Nuclear Detection Architecture. These systems support NSDD’s mission to build partner country capability to deter, detect, and interdict the illicit transport of radiological and fissile material through strategic points of entry and exit at seaports, airports, and border crossings. NSDD works collaboratively with partner countries and international organizations to optimize the operation of these RPMs. The large amount of data provided by NSDD partner countries highlights the close cooperation and partnerships NSDD has built with 56 countries around the world. Thirty-seven of these countries shared at least some RPM-related data with NSDD in fiscal year 2016. This significant level of data sharing is a key element that distinguishes the NSDD office as unique among nuclear nonproliferation programs and initiatives: NSDD can provide specific, objective, data-driven decisions and support for sustaining the radiation detection systems it helped deploy. This data analysis report summarizes and aggregates the RPM data provided to the NSDD office for analysis and review in fiscal year 2016. The data can be used to describe RPM performance and characterize the wide diversity of NSDD deployment sites. For example, NSDD deploys detector systems across sites with natural background radiation levels that can vary by a factor of approximately six from site to site. Some lanes have few occupancies, whereas others have approximately 8,000 occupancies per day and the different types of cargo that travel through a site can result in site-wide alarm rates that range from near 0% at some sites to above 3% at others. Based on the data received, the global average uptime for NSDD RPMs was above 96% for fiscal year 2016. NSDD takes all of these factors into account in making recommendations to partner countries on how to most effectively manage and maintain site operations. NSDD utilizes reports and other information products created by data analysts to efficiently allocate the resources needed to detect and ultimately interdict illicit nuclear and radiological material.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

A review of artificial intelligence applications in manufacturing operations

Abstract Artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) can improve manufacturing efficiency, productivity, and sustainability. However, using AI in manufacturing also presents several challenges, including issues with data acquisition and management, human resources, infrastructure, as well as security risks, trust, and implementation challenges. For example, getting the data needed to train AI models can be difficult for rare events or costly for large datasets that need labeling. AI models can also pose security risks when integrated into industrial control systems. In addition, some industry players may be hesitant to use AI due to a lack of trust or understanding of how it works. Despite these challenges, AI has the potential to be extremely helpful in manufacturing, particularly in applications such as predictive maintenance, quality assurance, and process optimization. It is important to consider the specific needs and capabilities of each manufacturing scenario when deciding whether and how to use AI in manufacturing. This review identifies current developments, challenges, and future directions in AI/ML relevant to manufacturing, with the goal of improving understanding of AI/ML technologies available for solving manufacturing problems, providing decision‐support for prioritizing and selecting appropriate AI/ML technologies, and identifying areas where further research can yield transformational returns for the industry. Early experience suggests that AI/ML can have significant cost and efficiency benefits in manufacturing, especially when combined with the ability to capture enormous amounts of data from manufacturing systems.

Plathottam, Siby Jose↗

Tropospheric Airborne Meteorological Data Reporting (TAMDAR) Sensor Validation and Verification on National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Lockheed WP-3D Aircraft

As part of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Aviation Safety and Security Program, the Tropospheric Airborne Meteorological Data Reporting project (TAMDAR) developed a low-cost sensor for aircraft flying in the lower troposphere. This activity was a joint effort with support from Federal Aviation Administration, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and industry. This paper reports the TAMDAR sensor performance validation and verification, as flown on board NOAA Lockheed WP-3D aircraft. These flight tests were conducted to assess the performance of the TAMDAR sensor for measurements of temperature, relative humidity, and wind parameters. The ultimate goal was to develop a small low-cost sensor, collect useful meteorological data, downlink the data in near real time, and use the data to improve weather forecasts. The envisioned system will initially be used on regional and package carrier aircraft. The ultimate users of the data are National Centers for Environmental Prediction forecast modelers. Other users include air traffic controllers, flight service stations, and airline weather centers. NASA worked with an industry partner to develop the sensor. Prototype sensors were subjected to numerous tests in ground and flight facilities. As a result of these earlier tests, many design improvements were made to the sensor. The results of tests on a final version of the sensor are the subject of this report. The sensor is capable of measuring temperature, relative humidity, pressure, and icing. It can compute pressure altitude, indicated air speed, true air speed, ice presence, wind speed and direction, and eddy dissipation rate. Summary results from the flight test are presented along with corroborative data from aircraft instruments.

Tsoucalas, George↗

The Need for Precise and Well-documented Experimental Data on Prompt Fission Neutron Spectra from Neutron-induced Fission of {sup 239}Pu

The spectrum of neutrons emitted promptly after {sup 239}Pu(n,f)—a so-called prompt fission neutron spectrum (PFNS)—is a quantity of high interest, for instance, for reactor physics and global security. However, there are only few experimental data sets available that are suitable for evaluations. In addition, some of those data sets differ by more than their 1-σ uncertainty boundaries. We present the results of MCNP studies indicating that these differences are partly caused by underestimated multiple scattering contributions, over-corrected background, and inconsistent deconvolution methods. A detailed uncertainty quantification for suitable experimental data was undertaken including these effects, and test-evaluations were performed with the improved uncertainty information. The test-evaluations illustrate that the inadequately estimated effects and detailed uncertainty quantification have an impact on the evaluated PFNS and associated uncertainties as well as the neutron multiplicity of selected critical assemblies. A summary of data and documentation needs to improve the quality of the experimental database is provided based on the results of simulations and test-evaluations. Given the possibly substantial distortion of the PFNS by multiple scattering and background effects, special care should be taken to reduce these effects in future measurements, e.g., by measuring the {sup 239}Pu PFNS as a ratio to either the {sup 235}U or {sup 252}Cf PFNS.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Application of DLT cybersecurity stack to TES applications for a scalable, cybersecure, and interoperable future

Transactive Energy Systems (TES) are expected to improve upon existing grid operations and capabilities by enabling the integration of traditional grid resources with distributed energy resources (DER). Distributed Ledger Technology or DLT (e.g., blockchain) presents itself as a viable instrument to support decentralized, autonomous, and tamper-evident applications, which can be leveraged within TES's ecosystem. DLTs can provide pertinent security controls including access controls, data immutability, and traceability in addition to other well-known advantages such as decentralization and scalability. This work demonstrates the DLT Cybersecurity stack and its applicability to TES-based use-cases/applications. The seven-layer DLT cybersecurity stack is a DLT-agnostic framework that can quickly be used to classify and group the individual needs of an application into the different processing and cybersecurity layers offered by a DLT using a common taxonomy and an architectural mapping framework. This enables application engineers to demystify and strengthen the overall security aspects of their systems while maintaining an open perspective towards features and drawbacks that may hinder their performance in real-world scenarios. The paper leverages the work performed by the IEEE P2418.5 - Blockchain for Energy Standards working group.

Blockchain, blockchain interoperability, Cybersecu↗

VULCON: A System for Vulnerability Prioritization, Mitigation, and Management

Vulnerability remediation is a critical task in operational software and network security management. In this paper, an effective vulnerability management strategy, called VULCON (VULnerability CONtrol), is developed and evaluated. The strategy is based on two fundamental performance metrics: i). Time-to-Vulnerability Remediation (TVR) and; ii). Total Vulnerability Exposure (TVE). VULCON takes as input real vulnerability scan reports, metadata about the discovered vulnerabilities, asset criticality, and personnel resources. VULCON uses a mixed integer multi-objective optimization algorithm to prioritize vulnerabilities for patching, such that the above performance metrics are optimized subject to the given resource constraints. VULCON has been tested on multiple months of real scan data from a Cyber-Security Operations Center (CSOC). Results indicate an overall Total Vulnerability Exposure reduction of 8.97\% when VULCON optimizes a realistic security analyst workforce's effort. Additionally, it is demonstrated that VULCON can determine monthly resources required to maintain a target TVE score. As such, VULCON provides valuable operational guidance for improving vulnerability response processes in CSOCs.

Farris, Katheryn A.↗

Land and Atmosphere Near-Real-Time Capability for Earth Observing System

The past decade has seen a rapid increase in availability and usage of near-real-time data from satellite sensors. The EOSDIS (Earth Observing System Data and Information System) was not originally designed to provide data with sufficiently low latency to satisfy the requirements for near-real-time users. The EOS (Earth Observing System) instruments aboard the Terra, Aqua and Aura satellites make global measurements daily, which are processed into higher-level 'standard' products within 8-40 hours of observation and then made available to users, primarily earth science researchers. However, applications users, operational agencies, and even researchers desire EOS products in near-real-time to support research and applications, including numerical weather and climate prediction and forecasting, monitoring of natural hazards, ecological/invasive species, agriculture, air quality, disaster relief and homeland security. These users often need data much sooner than routine science processing allows, usually within 3 hours, and are willing to trade science product quality for timely access. While Direct Broadcast provides more timely access to data, it does not provide global coverage. In 2002, a joint initiative between NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration), NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration), and the DOD (Department of Defense) was undertaken to provide data from EOS instruments in near-real-time. The NRTPE (Near Real Time Processing Effort) provided products within 3 hours of observation on a best-effort basis. As the popularity of these near-real-time products and applications grew, multiple near-real-time systems began to spring up such as the Rapid Response System. In recognizing the dependence of customers on this data and the need for highly reliable and timely data access, NASA's Earth Science Division sponsored the Earth Science Data and Information System Project (ESDIS)-led development of a new near-real-time system called LANCE (Land, Atmosphere Near-Real-Time Capability for EOS) in 2009. LANCE consists of special processing elements, co-located with selected EOSDIS data centers and processing facilities. A primary goal of LANCE is to bring multiple near-real-time systems under one umbrella, offering commonality in data access, quality control, and latency. LANCE now processes and distributes data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer Earth Observing System (AMSR-E), Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) instruments within 3 hours of satellite observation. The Rapid Response System and the Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS) capabilities will be incorporated into LANCE in 2011. LANCE maintains a central website to facilitate easy access to data and user services. LANCE products are extensively tested and compared with science products before being made available to users. Each element also plans to implement redundant network, power and server infrastructure to ensure high availability of data and services. Through the user registration system, users are informed of any data outages and when new products or services will be available for access. Building on a significant investment by NASA in developing science algorithms and products, LANCE creates products that have a demonstrated utility for applications requiring near-real-time data. From lower level data products such as calibrated geolocated radiances to higher-level products such as sea ice extent, snow cover, and cloud cover, users have integrated LANCE data into forecast models and decision support systems. The table above shows the current near-real-time product categories by instrument. The ESDIS Project continues to improve the LANCE system and use the experience gained through practice to seek adjustments to improve the quality and performance of the system. For example, anGC-compliant Web Map Service (WMS) will be added shortly that will allow users to download geo-referenced MODIS images for arbitrary bounding boxes. Further, an OGC-compliant Web Coverage Service (WCS) will be added later this year that will expedite user access to arbitrary data subsets or re-formatted products. AIRS images are now served through WMS and available in multiple formats (PNG, GeoTIFF, KMZ). NASA has established a LANCE User Working Group to steer the development of the system and create a forum for sharing ideas and experiences that are expected to further improve the LANCE capabilities. The LANCE system has proved a success by satisfying the growing needs of the applications and operational communities for land and atmosphere data in near-real-time. NASA's Earth Sciences Division was able to leverage existing science research capabilities to provide the near-real-time community with products and imagery that support monitoring of disasters in a timely manner.

Murphy, Kevin J.↗

Towards Resilient Critical Infrastructures: Application of Type-2 Fuzzy Logic in Embedded Network Security Cyber Sensor

Resiliency and cyber security of modern critical infrastructures is becoming increasingly important with the growing number of threats in the cyber-environment. This paper proposes an extension to a previously developed fuzzy logic based anomaly detection network security cyber sensor via incorporating Type-2 Fuzzy Logic (T2 FL). In general, fuzzy logic provides a framework for system modeling in linguistic form capable of coping with imprecise and vague meanings of words. T2 FL is an extension of Type-1 FL which proved to be successful in modeling and minimizing the effects of various kinds of dynamic uncertainties. In this paper, T2 FL provides a basis for robust anomaly detection and cyber security state awareness. In addition, the proposed algorithm was specifically developed to comply with the constrained computational requirements of low-cost embedded network security cyber sensors. The performance of the system was evaluated on a set of network data recorded from an experimental cyber-security test-bed.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Compilation and Evaluation of Data from Groundwater Impounded within the U12n and U12t Tunnels, Rainier and Aqueduct Mesas, Nevada National Security Site

The Department of Defense (DOD) Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Environmental Management Nevada Program (EM NV) conducted routine physical and geochemical monitoring of water impounded behind impermeable structures placed within the U12n and U12t tunnels on the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) (formerly the Nevada Test Site [NTS]). Desert Research Institute (DRI) conducted a semiquantitative evaluation of pressure data to determine the extent to which the tunnels have been inundated and a qualitative evaluation of monitored geochemical parameters to determine if trends exist that were indicative of hydrologic and/or geochemical processes operating behind the tunnel plugs. Data were also evaluated to determine if monitored radiological parameters exceeded primary standards associated with the Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) Safe Drinking Water Act (SDWA) (40 C.F.R. § 141.66).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Bhutan Agriculture III: Monitoring Cropland Changes in Bhutan using Remote Sensing to Bolster Food Security and Support Crop Monitoring

The Bhutan Agriculture III team aimed to improve agricultural efficiency in Bhutan. Bhutan is a nation heavily reliant on agriculture, but it faces challenges such as geophysical limitations and lack of scientific agricultural practice. The team partnered with a primary end user, Bhutan’s Department of Agriculture (DoA), and with collaborators; the Bhutan Foundation, National Plant Protection Centre (NPPC), Agricultural Research Department Centre (ARDC), National Statistics Bureau (NSB), and the Ugyen Wangchuck Institute for Conservation and Environment Research (UWICER). Advised by NASA SERVIR, the team developed crop masks and monitored rice distribution from 2015 to 2022 utilizing Earth observations such as Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), Landsat 9 OLI-2, Sentinel-1 C-Band Synthetic Aperture Radar (C-SAR), Sentinel-2 MultiSpectral Instrument (MSI) and Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM). The team gathered 5,000 points from the five dzongkhags that yield the most rice in Bhutan (Paro, Punakha, Samtse, Sarpang and Wangue Phodrang) using Collect Earth Online (CEO). With the data collected, the team split the data into training and validation data on Google Earth Engine (GEE) for a random forest (RF) classifier for rice and non-rice classification. After running the data on the Random Forest (RF) model, the team got an accuracy score of 81.48%, a kappa score of 55.75% and an F1 score of 86.11%. This data supports better agricultural decision-making for the governing body of Bhutan, helps enhance farming efficiency and foster sustainable practices, assists in overcoming data inaccuracy and bolsters food security in the country.

Sonam Seldon Tshering↗

A Hybrid Data-Driven and Model-Based Anomaly Detection Scheme for DER Operation: Preprint

This paper proposes a hybrid data and model-based anomaly detection for securing the operation of distributed energy resources (DERs) in distribution grids. Data-driven autoencoders (AE) are set up at the edge level by taking local DER data and detect anomalous operations by leveraging the reconstruction ability. In parallel, model-based state estimation (SE) is running at the system level by taking system models and measurements, the anomalies are identified by analyzing the measurements residual. The hybrid scheme preserves the benefits of both data-driven and model-based analysis and thus improves the robustness and accuracy of anomaly detection. It can be established by getting full use of the existing infrastructures in distribution grids. Numerical tests on a realistic distribution feeder in Southern California highlight the effectiveness as well as benefits of the proposed scheme.

anomaly detection↗

Distributed and Secure Spectrum Sharing for 5G and 6G Networks

Secure spectrum sharing or spectrum co-existence of multiple 5G networks and future 6G networks is a powerful enabler technology. The National Spectrum Strategy (NSS) published by the White House in November, 2023, and the subsequent NSS implementation plan led by the National Telecommunication and Information Administration (NTIA) is the driver of a national effort to enable co-existence of government incumbents and commercial networks in selected spectrum bands. Cellular networks such as 5G & 6G and non-cellular Wi-Fi 6E & 7 are the prominent wireless technologies considered for co-existence with incumbent wireless links. Security of the spectrum sharing solutions is a must to make this transformation of spectrum use possible, specially for mission critical communications. However, current spectrum sharing solutions rely on centralized data bases with inherent vulnerabilities. This paper focuses on secure spectrum sharing among multiple 5G networks using unlicensed and shared frequency bands. It presents an innovative AI/ML based distributed spectrum sharing approach that can be autonomously used by multiple networks. Each sharing network uses its own observation of the Radio Frequency (RF) environment, which consists of RF measurements reported from the 5G User Equipment (UE), to adjust the transmission power levels for secure co-existence. Data is presented to illustrate the superior performance of this solution compared to other spectrum sharing solutions where each network can utilize usage data of the other networks. Finally it discusses how this efficient spectrum sharing solution can evolve in the future for the 6G networks.

5G↗

Advanced architectures for high-performance quantum networking

As practical quantum networks prepare to serve an ever-expanding number of nodes, there has grown a need for advanced auxiliary classical systems that support the quantum protocols and maintain compatibility with the existing fiber-optic infrastructure. We propose and demonstrate a quantum local area network design that addresses current deployment limitations in timing and security in a scalable fashion using commercial off-the-shelf components. First, we employ White Rabbit switches to synchronize three remote nodes with ultra-low timing jitter, significantly increasing the fidelities of the distributed entangled states over previous work with Global Positioning System clocks. Second, using a parallel quantum key distribution channel, we secure the classical communications needed for instrument control and data management. Therefore, the conventional network that manages our entanglement network is secured using keys generated via an underlying quantum key distribution layer, preserving the integrity of the supporting systems and the relevant data in a future-proof fashion.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A Central Asia Hydrologic Monitoring Dataset for Food and Water Security Applications in Afghanistan

From the Hindu Kush mountains to the Registan Desert, Afghanistan is a diverse landscape where droughts, floods, conflict, and economic market accessibility pose challenges for agricultural livelihoods and food security. The ability to remotely monitor environmental conditions is critical to support decision making for humanitarian assistance. The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) Land Data Assimilation System (FLDAS) global and Central Asia data streams provide information on hydrologic states for routine integrated food security analysis. While developed for a specific project, these data are publicly available and useful for other applications that require hydrologic estimates of the water and energy balance. These two data streams are unique because of their suitability for routine monitoring, as well as for being a historical record for computing relative indicators of water availability. The global stream is available at ∼ 1-month latency, and monthly average outputs are on a 10 km grid from 1982–present. The second data stream, Central Asia (21–56°N, 30–100°E), at ∼ 1 d latency, provides daily average outputs on a 1 km grid from 2000–present. This paper describes the configuration of the two FLDAS data streams, background on the software modeling framework, selected meteorological inputs and parameters, and results from previous evaluation studies. We also provide additional analysis of precipitation and snow cover over Afghanistan. We conclude with an example of how these data are used in integrated food security analysis. For use in new and innovative studies that will improve understanding of this region, these data are hosted by U.S. Geological Survey data portals and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). The Central Asia data described in this paper can be accessed via the NASA repository at https://doi.org/10.5067/VQ4CD3Y9YC0R (Jacob and Slinski, 2021), and the global data described in this paper can be accessed via the NASA repository at https://doi.org/10.5067/5NHC22T9375G (McNally, 2018).

Amy McNally↗