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DOE OSTI2026

Data-Driven Modeling of High-Resolution Residential Load Profiles Using Low-Resolution Smart Meter Measurements

Accurate and high-resolution residential load profiles are essential for power system modeling, demand response planning, and effective grid operation. As the energy sector moves towards a more actively managed distribution system, the ability to understand residential energy consumption at a minute-by-minute scale becomes increasingly critical. High-resolution load profiles provide key insights into demand patterns and user behavior, enabling grid operators to design more effective energy solutions; however, residential load measurements in the field are typically recorded at low resolutions, such as 15-60 minutes, which makes it hard to study the characteristics of different residential customers. This paper addresses these challenges by introducing a data-driven approach to generate realistic, high-resolution residential load profiles based on lowre-solution measurements and weather information. The proposed method retains the key features of the actual residential load measurements while offering appliance-level energy consumption details for each residential building. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed load profile generator, proving its capability to support utilities in optimizing residential energy management and ensuring a more reliable and resilient grid.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Optimization of submicron Ni/Au/Ge contacts to an AlGaAs/GaAs two-dimensional electron gas

We report on fabrication and performance of sub-micrometer Ni/Au/Ge contacts to a two-dimensional electron gas in an AlGaAs/GaAs heterostructure. Utilizing scanning transmission electron microscopy, energy dispersive x-ray spectroscopy, and low temperature electrical measurements, we investigate the relationship between contact performance and the mechanical and chemical properties of the annealed metal stack. Contact geometry and crystallographic orientation significantly impact performance. Our results indicate that the spatial distribution of germanium in the annealed contact plays a central role in the creation of high transmission contacts. We characterize the transmission of our contacts at high magnetic fields in the quantum Hall regime. Our work establishes that contacts with an area of 0.5 μm2 and resistance less than 400 Ω can be fabricated with high yield.

Physics↗

DOE OSTI2024

ARQUIN: Architectures for Multinode Superconducting Quantum Computers

Many proposals to scale quantum technology rely on modular or distributed designs wherein individual quantum processors, called nodes, are linked together to form one large multinode quantum computer (MNQC). One scalable method to construct an MNQC is using superconducting quantum systems with optical interconnects. However, internode gates in these systems may be two to three orders of magnitude noisier and slower than local operations. Surmounting the limitations of internode gates will require improvements in entanglement generation, use of entanglement distillation, and optimized software and compilers. Still, it remains unclear what performance is possible with current hardware and what performance algorithms require. In this article, we employ a systems analysis approach to quantify overall MNQC performance in terms of hardware models of internode links, entanglement distillation, and local architecture. We show how to navigate tradeoffs in entanglement generation and distillation in the context of algorithm performance, lay out how compilers and software should balance between local and internode gates, and discuss when noisy quantum internode links have an advantage over purely classical links. Here, we find that a factor of 10–100× better link performance is required and introduce a research roadmap for the co-design of hardware and software towards the realization of early MNQCs. While we focus on superconducting devices with optical interconnects, our approach is general across MNQC implementations.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2024

Role of Intermolecular Interactions in Deep Eutectic Solvents for CO 2 Capture: Vibrational Spectroscopy and Quantum Chemical Studies

Recent research and reviews on CO 2 capture methods, along with advancements in industry, have highlighted high costs and energy-intensive nature as the primary limitations of conventional direct air capture and storage (DACS) methods. In response to these challenges, deep eutectic solvents (DESs) have emerged as promising absorbents due to their scalability, selectivity, and lower environmental impact compared to other absorbents. However, the molecular origins of their enhanced thermal stability and selectivity for DAC applications have not been explored before. Therefore, the current study focuses on a comprehensive investigation into the molecular interactions within an alkaline DES composed of potassium hydroxide (KOH) and ethylene glycol (EG). Combining Fourier transform infrared (FT-IR) and quantum chemical calculations, the study reports structural changes and intermolecular interactions induced in EG upon addition of KOH and its implications on CO 2 capture. Experimental and computational spectroscopic studies confirm the presence of noncovalent interactions (hydrogen bonds) within both EG and the KOH-EG system and point to the aggregation of ions at higher KOH concentrations. Additionally, molecular electrostatic potential (MESP) surface analysis, natural bond orbital (NBO) analysis, quantum theory of atoms-in-molecules (QTAIM) analysis, and reduced density gradient-noncovalent interaction (RDG-NCI) plot analysis elucidate changes in polarizability, charge distribution, hydrogen bond types, noncovalent interactions, and interaction strengths, respectively. Evaluation of explicit and hybrid models assesses their effectiveness in representing intermolecular interactions. This research enhances our understanding of molecular interactions in the KOH-EG system, which are essential for both the absorption and desorption of CO 2 . The study also aids in predicting and selecting DES components, optimizing their ratios with salts, and fine-tuning the properties of similar solvents and salts for enhanced CO 2 capture efficiency.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Adaptive Computing (AC) [SWR-24-106]

The Adaptive Computing (AC) software stack supports goal-based computing, for which a simulation workload is created on the fly adapting to the results of calculations. Application-specific code defines an objective, which may be to solve an optimization problem or to train a surrogate model with minimal uncertainty. Then, the AC driver decides where in the design parameter space to run simulations to best achieve that objective. This process is iterative and online; as new data is returned from simulations, the AC driver chooses new simulations to run. The AC driver can strategically run simulations on distributed hardware resources (including high performance computing machines, cloud resources, and edge devices) to maximize throughput and obey resource constraints.

Griffin, Kevin [National Renewable Energy Laborato↗

DOE OSTI2026

Adaptive Computing (AC) (Open Source) [SWR-24-106]

The Adaptive Computing (AC) software stack supports goal-based computing, for which a simulation workload is created on the fly, adapting to the results of calculations. Application-specific code defines an objective, which may be to solve an optimization problem or to train a surrogate model with minimal uncertainty. Then, the AC driver decides where in the design parameter space to run simulations to best achieve that objective. This process is iterative and online; as new data is returned from simulations, the AC driver chooses new simulations to run. The AC driver can strategically run simulations on distributed hardware resources (including high performance computing machines, cloud resources, and edge devices) to maximize throughput and obey resource constraints.

Griffin, Kevin [National Laboratory of the Rockies↗

DOE OSTI2024

DEM simulation of the compression of crushable sand: does the initial particle shape matter?

Advances in DEM modeling, combined with high-resolution X-ray tomography, opened the way for computer models based on virtual replicas of the particles which preserve nearly all facets of their geometry. This leads to simulation advantages, but also high computational costs. Here we tackle a question stemming from this trend: how accurate should particle models be to ensure accuracy? We address this question for the case of the compression of crushable sand. LS-DEM was used to generate three models of Ottawa sand (exact replicas, ellipsoids, and spheres) from digital images of its grains. Compression-induced crushing was simulated for all sets by tracking evolving size and shape distribution. The results confirm that exact replicas provide the closest match of the measurements. However, intermediate degrees of rendering (e.g. ellipsoids preserving volume and aspect ratio of the real grains) led to satisfactory results only marginally different from those of exact replicas. In conclusion, these findings provide an example of the protocols that may be followed to identify the optimal degree of particle approximation which should be regarded as mandatory to achieve a conscious, sustainable use of computational resources.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Bull Trout and Westslope Cutthroat Trout movement in a dam tailrace

Populations of Bull Trout Salvelinus confluentus and Westslope Cutthroat Trout Oncorhynchus clarkii lewisi in the Pend Oreille Basin have declined, partly due to fragmentation caused by hydropower dams. This study aimed to analyze the movements and behavior of these species downstream of Albeni Falls Dam over two years to inform fishway design. Radiotracking investigations were conducted to monitor 10 adult Bull Trout and 17 adult Westslope Cutthroat Trout from September 2008 to July 2010. Macro and micro detection zones were delineated to study fine- and large-scale movements in the tailrace. Macro zones included the spillway and powerhouse tailrace areas. Micro zones were nested within macro zones to identify regions close to the dam where fishway structures could be built. Both Bull Trout and Westslope Cutthroat Trout exhibited high mobility in the dam tailrace, transitioning between macro detection zones. Seasonal variations influenced their distribution patterns. During the spring freshet migration season, both species were primarily detected at the left powerhouse micro zone. In sedentary periods (fall/winter and summer), fish actively swam throughout the tailrace, displaying search behavior. These behavior observations suggest that potential fishway entrances located near dam concrete would be effective: the area near the left powerhouse was identified as the optimal construction location. This study highlights the feasibility of designing fish passage structures to mitigate population fragmentation and support species recovery.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Multi-Factor-Coupled, Ahead-of-Time Aggregation of Power Flexibility Under Forecast Uncertainty

The increasing penetration of distributed energy resources (DERs) is significantly reshaping the role of distribution systems under active energy management. To aggregate the active-reactive power flexibility of DERs dispersed at the feeder and provide capacity support to the transmission system, it is essential to efficiently identify feasible substation power injection trajectories. This paper introduces a novel ahead-of-time flexibility characterization method to address it. First, a polyhedral non-feeder-level power flexibility region (PFR) is constructed, accounting for various time-dependent, power-coupled, and forecast error uncertainties. Then, a polyhedral feeder-level PFR is analytically derived through a coordinate transformation, which can reveal the uncertainty propagation path, i.e., how uncertainty applies to the feeder-level PFR. To facilitate the high-level application, a tractable chance-constrained Chebyshev centering optimization model is further developed to find a ball-shaped inner approximation of the feeder-level PFR. Finally, the proposed method is validated on a modified IEEE 123-bus test system. Here, both theoretical and experimental results show that, with appropriate robustness parameter settings, the proposed method can make the approximated PFR less conservative with abundant robustness against forecast error uncertainty.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Empowering Rural Electrification in Honduras: An Integrated Assessment of PV/BESS and Productive Uses of Electricity in Gracias a Dios

Honduras faces significant challenges in its energy sector, particularly in rural areas where access to reliable and affordable electricity remains limited. The flagship rural electrification initiative for Honduras Secretary of Energy (SEN) is the Politica de Acceso Universal a la Electricidad (PAUEH - Universal Electricity Access Policy), a key solution for addressing this energy poverty is the deployment of more than 1700 distributed solar and hybrid mini-grid solutions. In late 2023 as a first step towards supporting SEN's electrification efforts, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) developed a literature review of SEN electrification policy documents and conducted a series of technical capacity-building workshops with SEN and other energy sector stakeholders in Honduras focused on using NREL's open-source REopt tool to conduct techno-economic assessments and develop least-cost optimizations for potential solar + storage mini-grid systems. Building on some initial capacity building on mini-grid modeling, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) worked with SEN to develop a detailed techno-economic assessment for electrifying two schools, a healthcare clinic, and a hospital in a hypothetical community within the department of Gracias a Dios. The analysis also evaluates the business case for cold storage productive use of energy (PUE) applications for the fisheries value chain and how the incorporation of these PUE loads potentially impacts both the viability of the PV+BESS solutions as well as local economic development. By assessing the potential for deployment of integrated PV/BESS systems to both support critical community services like education and healthcare, as well as potential for downstream enterprise and economic development, this analysis represents a first step that can help to inform specific strategies for development of pilot PV+BESS projects aligned with national priorities and sector level planning under PAUEH.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Large deviations of ionic currents in dilute electrolytes

Here, we evaluate the exponentially rare fluctuations of the ionic current for a dilute electrolyte by means of macroscopic fluctuation theory. We consider the fluctuating hydrodynamics of a fluid electrolyte described by a stochastic Poisson–Nernst–Planck equation. We derive the Euler–Lagrange equations that dictate the optimal concentration profiles of ions conditioned on exhibiting a given current, whose form determines the likelihood of that current in the long-time limit. For a symmetric electrolyte under small applied voltages, number density fluctuations are small, and ionic current fluctuations are Gaussian with a variance determined by the Nernst–Einstein conductivity. Under large applied potentials, the ionic current distribution is generically non-Gaussian. Its structure is constrained thermodynamically by Gallavotti–Cohen symmetry and the thermodynamic uncertainty principle.

Farhadi, Jafar [University of California, Berkeley↗

DOE OSTI2024

Deep Learning-Based Weather-Related Power Outage Prediction with Socio-Economic and Power Infrastructure Data

This paper presents a deep learning-based approach for hourly power outage probability prediction within census tracts encompassing a utility company's service territory. Two distinct deep learning models, conditional Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) and unconditional MLP, were developed to forecast power outage probabilities, leveraging a rich array of input features gathered from publicly available sources including weather data, weather station locations, power infrastructure maps, socio-economic and demographic statistics, and power outage records. Given a one-hour-ahead weather forecast, the models predict the power outage probability for each census tract, taking into account both the weather prediction and the location's characteristics. The deep learning models employed different loss functions to optimize prediction performance. Our experimental results underscore the significance of socio-economic factors in enhancing the accuracy of power outage predictions at the census tract level.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2026

CRADA Number NFE-24-10110 with Qubit Engineering Inc. (CRADA Final Report)

Over the past year, the Qubit Engineering team has pushed the frontiers of power‑grid optimization, working in close collaboration with Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA). Their progress is reflected in three newly submitted conference papers, “Unified Relational GNN Architecture for AC Optimal Power Flow Calculations in Electric Grids,” “Graph‑Based Attention Mechanisms for Solving the AC Optimal Power Flow Problem in Electrical‑Power Networks,” and “Enhanced Power‑Grid Maintenance Planning and Quantum‑Inspired Combinatorial Prospects.” These publications showcase state‑of‑the‑art graph‑neural‑network methods for AC‑OPF and novel quantum‑inspired heuristics for maintenance scheduling. Beyond the academic results, the Qubit team has converted the research into two production‑grade tools built on TVA data: Neuro‑Grid, an AI‑driven power‑flow simulator that provides instant, interactive full‑grid load‑flow visualizations, and Quanta‑Grid, a quantum‑inspired maintenance‑scheduling engine to support logistics optimization for power utilities. Together, these advances demonstrate how Qubit’s partnership with ORNL and TVA is delivering practical, physics‑grounded analytics for next‑generation grid management.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2026

Comparison of automated chemical-guided segmentation and human annotation of soil organic matter in X-ray microcomputed tomography imaging in contrasted soil types

Soil organic matter (OM) formation and persistence is strongly influenced by the spatial distribution of organic substrates and microscale soil heterogeneity by dictating OM accessibility to microorganisms. However, traditional size and/or density fractionation techniques disrupt aggregate architecture, eliminating spatial information needed to fully understand intra-aggregate OM distribution. To quantify three-dimensional OM spatial distribution and automate segmentation in X-ray microcomputed tomography (µCT) imaging without human annotation bias, we developed an iodine gas vapor (I2) based staining workflow that eliminates labor-intensive manual annotation while maintaining segmentation accuracy, using aggregates from four taxonomically diverse soils (Xerofluvent, Haploxeroll Sphagnofibrist, Palehumult) with an 8-fold range of soil organic carbon. Human annotation of 10 µCT slices by the experienced and inexperienced annotators resulted in variations up to 3% in the Dice similarity coefficient (DSC), reflecting a degree of inherent subjectivity of manual labeling. Such inconsistencies are expected to compound as the number of manually annotated slices increases. Dual-energy µCT imaging at 33.1 keV (below the iodine (I) K-edge) and 33.2 keV (above the I K-edge) was used to resolve aggregate microstructure following I2 staining. The automated image subtraction pipeline identified OM regions by the I Kedge induced brightness increases, achieving DSC values of 0.58–0.83 relative to an experienced annotator. Sensitivity analyses revealed that the reconstruction alpha value—optimized via the open-source tool TomocuPy—and the 3D registration slice count were the primary determinants of accuracy, providing a novel benchmark for dual-energy soil imaging. The pipeline without GPU acceleration achieved 9.6 to 43.2 times faster than manual annotation. Using GPU-accelerated image post-processing and affine transformation matrices, the pipeline successfully segmented OM elements for large-scale datasets (3232×3232 pixel, 2048 slices) within ~5200 s from raw file acquisition to segmented output. The high-throughput approach enables the quantification of OM spatial distribution across diverse and heterogeneous soil.

Soil microbial biomass↗

DOE OSTI2024

Fortalecimiento de la Electrificación Rural en Honduras: Una Evaluación Integrada de PV+BESS y Usos Productivos de la Electricidad en Gracias a Dios, Honduras [Empowering Rural Electrification in Honduras: An Integrated Assessment of PV/BESS and Productive Uses of Electricity in Gracias a Dios] (Spanish Translation)

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

In‐mold rheology and automated process control for injection molding of recycled polypropylene

Abstract Manufacturing plastic parts with secondary feedstocks has risen to the forefront of importance in recent years. However, the variation in molecular weight and rheology of secondary feedstock can lead to inconsistent part quality. This work evaluates the effectiveness of a novel closed‐loop adaptive process control system that adjusts nozzle pressure in response to in‐mold pressure data. Five different recycled polypropylene blends, with a broad distribution of flow properties, were evaluated to determine the effectiveness of the control system at reducing processing variation. The experimental results show that the process control strategy reduced the variation within the mold, as seen by in‐mold pressure curves and calculated in‐mold viscosity values. Additionally, the parameters that control the automated process adjustments were investigated, showing the importance of optimization. The analysis of the correlation between in‐mold rheology and mechanical properties showed a slight variation in the mechanical properties and parts weight with a coefficient of variation of under 5%. Overall, the results demonstrate the ability of pressure‐controlled molding and automated viscosity adjustment to reduce the variability when molding a secondary feedstock. Highlights Pressure‐controlled injection molding of recycled polypropylene. Automated closed‐loop adaptive process control methodology. Methodology resulted in a reduction in pressure variation during molding. Changes in mechanical properties and in‐mold viscosity were investigated. Results show the potential of pressure‐controlled molding at reducing variation.

Krantz, Joshua↗

DOE OSTI2025

Machine learning-driven predictive resource management in complex science workflows

Here, the collaborative efforts of large communities in science experiments, often comprising thousands of global members, reflect a monumental commitment to exploration and discovery. Recently, advanced and complex data processing has gained increasing importance in science experiments. Data processing workflows typically consist of multiple intricate steps, and the precise specification of resource requirements is crucial for each step to allocate optimal resources for effective processing. Estimating resource requirements in advance is challenging due to a wide range of analysis scenarios, varying skill levels among community members, and the continuously increasing spectrum of computing options. One practical approach to mitigate these challenges involves initially processing a subset of each step to measure precise resource utilization from actual processing profiles before completing the entire step. While this two-staged approach enables processing on optimal resources for most of the workflow, it has drawbacks such as initial inaccuracies leading to potential failures and suboptimal resource usage, along with overhead from waiting for initial processing completion, which is critical for fast-turnaround analyses. In this context, our study introduces a novel pipeline of machine learning models within a comprehensive workflow management system, the Production and Distributed Analysis (PanDA) system. These models employ advanced machine learning techniques to predict key resource requirements, overcoming challenges posed by limited upfront knowledge of characteristics at each step. Accurate forecasts of resource requirements enable informed and proactive decision-making in workflow management, enhancing the efficiency of handling diverse, complex workflows across heterogeneous resources.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2026

User Manual - HydraGNN v5.0: Distributed Implementation of Multi-Tasking Graph Neural Networks

This document serves as the user manual for HydraGNN v5.0, a scalable graph neural network (GNN) architecture for simultaneous prediction of multiple target properties using multi-task learning (MTL). This version of HydraGNN has been developed primarily to support the development, training, and deployment of predictive graph-based deep learning (DL) models for atomistic materials modeling. HydraGNN is templated over 13 message-passing policies, including invariant models (GIN, PNA, PNAPlus, GAT, MFC, CGCNN, SAGE, SchNet, DimeNet) and equivariant models (EGNN, PNAEq, PAINN, MACE), and supports distributed training via distributed data parallelism (DDP), DeepSpeed, and Fully Sharded Data Parallelism (FSDP) on leadership-class supercomputers. Although HydraGNN can be applied to problems beyond atomistic materials modeling, its current use is confined to homogeneous graphs. Additional capabilities include machine-learned interatomic potentials with energy-conserving forces, General, Powerful, and Scalable Graph Transformer (GraphGPS) global attention, periodic boundary conditions, hyperparameter optimization, mixed-precision training, and uncertainty quantification.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗