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DOE OSTI2025

Rapid wavefield forecasting for earthquake early warning via deep sequence to sequence learning

We propose a deep learning model, WaveCastNet, to forecast high-dimensional wavefields. WaveCastNet integrates a convolutional long expressive memory architecture into a sequence-to-sequence forecasting framework, enabling it to model long-term dependencies and multiscale patterns in both space and time. By sharing weights across spatial and temporal dimensions, WaveCastNet requires significantly fewer parameters than more resource-intensive models such as transformers, resulting in faster inference times. Crucially, WaveCastNet also generalizes better than transformers to rare and critical seismic scenarios, such as high-magnitude earthquakes. Here, we show the ability of the model to predict the intensity and timing of destructive ground motions in real time, using simulated data from the San Francisco Bay Area. Furthermore, we demonstrate its zero-shot capabilities by evaluating WaveCastNet on real earthquake data. Our approach does not require estimating earthquake magnitudes and epicenters, steps that are prone to error in conventional methods, nor does it rely on empirical ground-motion models, which often fail to capture strongly heterogeneous wave propagation effects.

Geophysics↗

DOE OSTI2025

Fast superconducting qubit control with subharmonic drives

Increasing the fidelity of single-qubit gates requires a combination of faster pulses and increased qubit coherence. However, these requirements can be contradictory. Additionally, increasing the drive power can heat the qubit’s environment and degrade coherence. In this work, we circumvent this issue and achieve rapid gates by pumping a transmon’s native Kerr at approximately one third of the qubit’s resonant frequency. The subharmonic Rabi rate of the process is proportional to applied drive amplitude cubed, allowing for rapid gates. In addition, we demonstrate that filtering can be used to protect the qubit’s coherence while performing rapid gates. Single qubit gates as short as 37.4 ns are demonstrated with fidelity of 99.91%. We present theoretical calculations indicating that drive induced multi-photon decay will not limit qubit lifetime; calculated power absorption also indicates that this technique could reduce cryostat heating for fast gates, a vital requirement for large-scale quantum computers.

Xia, Mingkang [Univ. of Pittsburgh, PA (United Sta↗

DOE OSTI2026

BiG-SCAPE 2.0 and BiG-SLiCE 2.0: scalable, accurate and interactive sequence clustering of metabolic gene clusters

Microbial metabolic gene clusters encode the biosynthesis or catabolism of metabolites that facilitate ecological specialization, mediate microbiome interactions and constitute a major source of medicines and crop protection agents. Here, we present BiG-SCAPE and BiG-SLiCE 2.0, next-generation methods that facilitate scalable, accurate and interactive gene cluster analyses. BiG-SCAPE 2.0 updates its classification, alignment methods, and visualizations, enabling more accurate analysis, up to 8x faster runtimes and halved memory requirements. BiG-SLiCE 2.0 updates its distance metric, pHMM database, and classification logic, resulting in increased sensitivity nearing that of BiG-SCAPE. Analysis of 260,630 biosynthetic gene clusters from publicly available genomes reveals that both tools generate concurring estimates of gene cluster diversity, thus providing significantly extended methodological support for recent evidence indicating that the vast majority of natural product diversity remains unexplored. Together, these updates will facilitate global genome mining efforts for natural product discovery and microbiome analyses scalable with current data sizes.

Draisma, Arjan [Wageningen University & Research (↗

DOE OSTI2026

Revealing ultrafast proton-transfer-mediated autoionization as a source of low-energy electrons in hydrogen-bonded systems

Ionizing radiation can trigger ultrafast proton transfer, a central mechanism in many chemical and biological functions, that in turn can enable or suppress electron relaxation processes and consequently cause abrupt changes in the reaction pathway. This study combines theory and experiment to probe ultrafast relaxation and dissociation in water dimers following inner- and outer-valence photoionization. By tracking electron and nuclear motion simultaneously, we reveal competing fragmentation pathways that produce low-energy electrons, which are key agents in radiation-induced chemistry, including DNA damage. While low-energy electrons are known to arise via intermolecular Coulombic decay, here we identify a faster relaxation mechanism gated by proton transfer following inner-valence ionization, which we call proton-transfer-mediated autoionization. Occurring within 10 femtoseconds, this process alters fragmentation outcomes, yielding either D 3 O + + OD + or D 2 O + + D 2 O + , depending on the interplay of proton migration and hydrogen back-transfer. Our findings underscore the intricate coupling between electronic and nuclear dynamics in hydrogen-bonded systems and establish proton-transfer-mediated autoionization as a significant pathway for low-energy electron generation.

Atomic and molecular interactions with photons↗

DOE OSTI2026

The impact of metastability on the high-pressure behavior of cerium

The structures adopted by solids under pressure are often assumed to reflect thermodynamic equilibrium, yet in many materials phase selection is strongly influenced by kinetic pathways and microstructural inheritance. Elemental cerium (Ce) exemplifies this challenge, with decades of conflicting reports describing different high-pressure crystal structures emerging under nominally identical conditions. Here we use neutron diffraction from large ( ~ 60 mm 3 ) sample volumes to follow the structural evolution in ultra-high-purity Ce during controlled pressure-temperature cycling between 85 and 295 K and up to 8 GPa. We find that the crystal structure formed at high pressure depends on the compression pathway: slow compression ( ~ 0.25 GPa hr −1 ) at room temperature favors an orthorhombic phase (α'), whereas slow ( ~ 0.25 GPa hr −1 ) and also moderately faster ( ~ 0.5 GPa hr −1 ) compression at low temperature stabilizes a pure monoclinic phase (α"). The low-temperature phase persists metastably over a wide temperature range but transforms irreversibly upon heating above ~ 280 K, or modest pressure cycling. Remarkably, the lower-pressure γ phase remains trapped far beyond the expected stability field, persisting to the highest pressures studied. These observations show that phase selection in Ce is governed by kinetics and microstructural memory rather than equilibrium thermodynamics or sample morphology alone, establishing path dependence as a defining feature of its high-pressure behavior.

Ridley, Christopher J. [Oak Ridge National Laborat↗

DOE OSTI2025

Accelerating charge estimation in molecular dynamics simulations using physics-informed neural networks: corrosion applications

Molecular Dynamics (MD) simulations are used to understand the effects of corrosion on metallic materials in salt brine. Reactive force fields in classical MD enable accurate modeling of bond formation and breakage in the aqueous medium and at the metal-electrolyte interface, while also facilitating dynamic partial charge equilibration. However, MD simulations are computationally intensive and unsuitable for modeling the long time scales characteristic of corrosive phenomena. To address this, we develop reduced-order machine learning models that provide accurate and efficient predictions of charge density in corrosive environments. Specifically, we use Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks to forecast charge density evolution based on atomic environments represented by Smooth Overlap of Atomic Positions (SOAP) descriptors. A physics-informed loss function enforces charge neutrality and electronegativity equivalence. The atomic charges predicted by the deep learning model trained on this work were obtained two orders of magnitude faster than those from molecular dynamics (MD) simulations, with an error of less than 3% compared to the MD-obtained charges, even in extrapolative scenarios, while adhering to physical constraints. This demonstrates the excellent accuracy, computational efficiency, and validity of the developed model. Lastly, even though developed for corrosion, these protocols are formulated in a phenomenon-agnostic manner, allowing application to various variable-charge interatomic potentials and related fields.

Atomistic models↗

DOE OSTI2026

Machine learning pipeline for denoising low signal-to-noise ratio and out-of-distribution transmission electron microscopy datasets

High-resolution transmission electron microscopy (HRTEM) is crucial for observing material’s structural and morphological evolution at Angstrom scales, but the electron beam can alter these processes. Devices such as CMOS-based direct-electron detectors operating in electron-counting mode can be utilized to substantially reduce the electron dosage. However, the resulting images often lead to a low signal-to-noise ratio, which requires frame integration that sacrifices temporal resolution. Several machine learning (ML) models have been recently developed to successfully denoise HRTEM images. Yet, these models are often computationally expensive, and their inference speeds on GPUs are outpaced by the imaging speed of advanced detectors, precluding in situ analysis. Furthermore, the performance of these denoising models on datasets with imaging conditions that deviate from the training datasets has not been evaluated. To mitigate these gaps, we propose a new self-supervised ML denoising pipeline specifically designed for time-series HRTEM images. This pipeline integrates a blind-spot convolution neural network with pre-processing and post-processing steps, including drift correction and low-pass filtering. Results demonstrate that our model outperforms various other ML and non-ML denoising methods in noise reduction and contrast enhancement, leading to improved visual clarity of atomic features. Additionally, the model is drastically faster than U-Net-based ML models and demonstrates excellent out-of-distribution generalization. The model’s computational inference speed is in the order of milliseconds per image, rendering it suitable for application in in-situ HRTEM experiments.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Virtual sensing-enabled digital twin framework for real-time monitoring of nuclear systems leveraging deep neural operators

Abstract Real-time monitoring is a foundation of nuclear digital twin technology, crucial for detecting material degradation and maintaining nuclear system integrity. Traditional physical sensor systems face limitations, particularly in measuring critical parameters in hard-to-reach or harsh environments, often resulting in incomplete data coverage. Machine learning-driven virtual sensors offer a transformative solution by complementing physical sensors in monitoring critical degradation indicators. This paper introduces the use of Deep Operator Networks (DeepONet) to predict key thermal-hydraulic parameters in the hot leg of pressurized water reactor. DeepONet acts as a virtual sensor, mapping operational inputs to spatially distributed system behaviors without requiring frequent retraining. Our results show that DeepONet achieves low mean squared and Relative L2 error, making predictions 1400 times faster than traditional CFD simulations . These characteristics enable DeepONet to function as a real-time virtual sensor, synchronizing with the physical system to track degradation conditions and provide insights within the digital twin framework for nuclear systems.

Hossain, Raisa↗

DOE OSTI2025

Quantum annealing for combinatorial optimization: a benchmarking study

Quantum annealing (QA) has the potential to significantly improve solution quality and reduce time complexity in solving combinatorial optimization problems compared to classical optimization methods. However, due to the limited number of qubits and their connectivity, the QA hardware did not show such an advantage over classical methods in past benchmarking studies. Recent advancements in QA with more than 5000 qubits, enhanced qubit connectivity, and the hybrid architecture promise to realize the quantum advantage. Here, we use a quantum annealer with state-of-the-art techniques and benchmark its performance against classical solvers. To compare their performance, we solve over 50 optimization problem instances represented by large and dense Hamiltonian matrices using quantum and classical solvers. The results demonstrate that a state-of-the-art quantum solver has higher accuracy (~0.013%) and a significantly faster problem-solving time (~6561×) than the best classical solver. Our results highlight the advantages of leveraging QA over classical counterparts, particularly in hybrid configurations, for achieving high accuracy and substantially reduced problem solving time in large-scale real-world optimization problems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

High-resolution modelling identifies the Bering Strait’s role in amplified Arctic warming

The Arctic region has warmed nearly four times faster than the global average since 1979, with far-reaching global implications. However, model projections of Arctic warming rates are uncertain and one key component is the ocean heat transport (OHT) into the Arctic Ocean. Here we use high-resolution historical and future climate simulations to show that the OHT through the Bering Strait exerts a more substantial influence on Arctic warming than previously recognized. The high-resolution ensemble exhibits a 20% larger warming rate for 2006–2100 compared with standard low-resolution model simulations. The enhanced Arctic warming in the high-resolution simulations is primarily attributable to an increased OHT through the narrow and shallow Bering Strait that is nearly four times larger than in the low-resolution simulations. Consequently, the projected rate of Arctic warming by low-resolution climate simulations is likely to be underestimated due to the model resolution being insufficient to capture future changes in Bering Strait OHT.

Xu, Gaopeng (ORCID:0000000283521818)↗

DOE OSTI2024

Feasibility of peak temperature targets in light of institutional constraints

Despite faster-than-expected progress in clean energy technology deployment, global annual CO 2 emissions have increased from 2020 to 2023. The feasibility of limiting warming to 1.5 °C is therefore questioned. Here we present a model intercomparison study that accounts for emissions trends until 2023 and compares cost-effective scenarios to alternative scenarios with institutional, geophysical and technological feasibility constraints and enablers informed by previous literature. Our results show that the most ambitious mitigation trajectories with updated climate information still manage to limit peak warming to below 1.6 °C (‘low overshoot’) with around 50% likelihood. However, feasibility constraints, especially in the institutional dimension, decrease this maximum likelihood considerably to 5–45%. Accelerated energy demand transformation can reduce costs for staying below 2 °C but have only a limited impact on further increasing the likelihood of limiting warming to 1.6 °C. Our study helps to establish a new benchmark of mitigation scenarios that goes beyond the dominant cost-effective scenario design.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

High-Resolution Meteorology with Climate Change Impacts from Global Climate Model Data Using Generative Machine Learning

As renewable energy generation increases, the impacts of weather and climate on energy generation and demand become critical to the reliability of the energy system. However, these impacts are often overlooked. Global climate models (GCMs) can be used to understand possible changes to our climate, but their coarse resolution makes them difficult to use in energy system modelling. Here we present open-source generative machine learning methods that produce meteorological data at a nominal spatial resolution of 4 km at an hourly frequency based on inputs from 100 km daily-average GCM data. These methods run 40 times faster than traditional downscaling methods and produce data that have high-resolution spatial and temporal attributes similar to historical datasets. We demonstrate that these methods can be used to downscale projected changes in wind, solar and temperature variables across multiple GCMs including projections for more frequent low-wind and high-temperature events in the Eastern United States.

climate change↗

DOE OSTI2025

Phage resistance mutations in a marine bacterium impact biogeochemically relevant cellular processes

Phage–bacteria interactions shape ecology and biogeochemistry across biomes. Resistance, arising from their evolutionary arms race, is well documented for receptor mutations, but other resistance mechanisms and their ecological implications remain unexplored. Here we isolated, sequenced and characterized 13 phage-resistant mutants of marine Cellulophaga baltica (Flavobacteriia). Mechanistically, mutations in surface proteins provided broad and complete extracellular resistance against multiple phages through decreased adsorption. Intracellular mutations affecting serine, glycine and threonine metabolism produced narrower resistance against a single phage, permitting viral DNA replication, and, in one mutant, were shown to be lipid mediated. Putative ecosystem impacts inferred from in vitro experiments include: (1) altered carbon utilization for all mutants, but especially by surface ones, (2) increased metabolite secretion for one modelled intracellular mutant (including experimentally verified acetate) and (3) increased ‘stickiness’ for all mutants, with surface mutants also sedimenting faster. Our findings highlight new resistance mechanisms and suggest that the phage–host arms race could result in ecosystem-level biogeochemical impacts in marine microorganisms.

Urvoy, Marion [Ohio State University]↗

DOE OSTI2024

Mitochondrial ATP generation is more proteome efficient than glycolysis

Metabolic efficiency profoundly influences organismal fitness. Nonphotosynthetic organisms, from yeast to mammals, derive usable energy primarily through glycolysis and respiration. Although respiration is more energy efficient, some cells favor glycolysis even when oxygen is available (aerobic glycolysis, Warburg effect). A leading explanation is that glycolysis is more efficient in terms of ATP production per unit mass of protein (that is, faster). Through quantitative flux analysis and proteomics, we find, however, that mitochondrial respiration is actually more proteome efficient than aerobic glycolysis. This is shown across yeast strains, T cells, cancer cells, and tissues and tumors in vivo. Instead of aerobic glycolysis being valuable for fast ATP production, it correlates with high glycolytic protein expression, which promotes hypoxic growth. Aerobic glycolytic yeasts do not excel at aerobic growth but outgrow respiratory cells during oxygen limitation. Here, we accordingly propose that aerobic glycolysis emerges from cells maintaining a proteome conducive to both aerobic and hypoxic growth.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2024

Release dynamics of nanodiamonds created by laser-driven shock-compression of polyethylene terephthalate

Laser-driven dynamic compression experiments of plastic materials have found surprisingly fast formation of nanodiamonds (ND) via X-ray probing. This mechanism is relevant for planetary models, but could also open efficient synthesis routes for tailored NDs. We investigate the release mechanics of compressed NDs by molecular dynamics simulation of the isotropic expansion of finite size diamond from different P-T states. Analysing the structural integrity along different release paths via molecular dynamic simulations, we found substantial disintegration rates upon shock release, increasing with the on-Hugnoiot shock temperature. We also find that recrystallization can occur after the expansion and hence during the release, depending on subsequent cooling mechanisms. Our study suggests higher ND recovery rates from off-Hugoniot states, e.g., via double-shocks, due to faster cooling. Laser-driven shock compression experiments of polyethylene terephthalate (PET) samples with in situ X-ray probing at the simulated conditions found diamond signal that persists up to 11 ns after breakout. In the diffraction pattern, we observed peak shifts, which we attribute to thermal expansion of the NDs and thus a total release of pressure, which indicates the stability of the released NDs.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Enhancing the Cherenkov over scintillation ratio using dichroic filters in BGO and TlCl for TOF-PET

Abstract The Cherenkov emission in inorganic crystal scintillators has been shown to dramatically improve time resolution for time-of-flight positron emission tomography (TOF-PET) for in slow scintillators with a high refractive index such as bismuth germanium oxide (BGO). This is due to the faster nature of the Cherenkov emission (tens of picoseconds) with respect to scintillation (nanosecond). However, the presence of slower scintillation light and the inability of existing detectors to distinguish between Cherenkov and scintillation make it difficult for BGO to achieve a good CTR for all the detected coincidence events. In this paper, we exploit the difference between the Cherenkov and scintillation emission spectra and use dichroic filters to enhance the Cherenkov over scintillation ratio. Dichroic filters transmit or reflect photons based on their wavelength, with a photon attenuation lower than 10%. We investigate several shortpass and longpass dichroic filters in a single-photon configuration with BGO and find the optimal filter that maximizes the Cherenkov over scintillation ratio. We demonstrate that we can enhance the ratio of Cherenkov to scintillation photons by a factor of 2.17 ± 0.38 by employing a shortpass dichroic filter with a cut-off wavelength of 450 nm for BGO, and by a factor of 2.87 ± 0.40 using a longpass dichroic filter with a cut-on wavelength of 550 nm for iodine/beryllium-doped thallium chloride.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

DOE OSTI2025

Constraining the impact of chlorine as a neutron absorber in next-gen fast reactor designs

The role of chlorine as a neutron poison and as a seed for producing radioactive waste in nuclear systems has driven a renewed interest to improve its nuclear data uncertainties. Additionally, basic and applied science programs that use CLYC (Cs 2 LiYCl 6 :Ce) detectors for neutron spectroscopy and monitoring are also very sensitive to any change in chlorine nuclear data for simulations of the detector response. In this work, sensitivities relevant for these different applications are addressed through simulations of the efficiency of CLYC detectors in a fast fission spectrum when applying new chlorine nuclear data as input. These simulations are validated by an experimental measurement using CLYC detectors coupled to an ionization chamber loaded with a 252 Cf spontaneous fission source. The results are then used to obtain the first reliable direct measurement of the 35 Cl(n,p 0 ) and summed Cl(n,p+n,α) fission spectrum average cross sections, found to be 54.7(32) and 105.0(98) mb, respectively. The results are within uncertainty of calculated fission spectrum averaged cross sections based on recently re-evaluated chlorine nuclear data, which confirm recent impact studies performed for the Molten Chloride Reactor Experiment. Meanwhile, there currently exists only one published criticality benchmark experiment that is sufficiently sensitive to chlorine nuclear data. Discrepancies are found with this set of criticality safety benchmarks, which are more sensitive to thermal and epithermal neutron energies than the energies, above 100 keV, tested in this current work. Hence, there is still a need to re-evaluate the chlorine nuclear data at lower energies to assess these discrepancies. Interpretation of the data from future “faster” criticality benchmarks, which are needed for next-gen fast reactor designs, benefit from the improved constraints on the chlorine nuclear data validated in this work.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Dynamically downscaled seasonal heat wave projections in the CONUS

Heat waves are a well-documented hazard that are projected to increase in intensity, duration, and frequency with climate change. Regions of the US experience widely varying temperatures; for example, 35 °C is extremely hot for spring in the Northeast but not for summer in the Southeast. It is important to evaluate projections within a regional context and at a high enough resolution to understand the risks to populations. We identify heat waves across the Conterminous US (CONUS) under SSP5–8.5 from 2020 to 2059 with an ensemble of dynamically downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) model outputs. We demonstrate that there are regional differences caused by seasonal and local drivers of persistent hot temperatures. Summer heat waves are increasing in intensity and duration faster than winter heat waves because of the atmospheric conditions that promote these events. Our analysis emphasizes the value of fine-resolution modeling for projecting future climate risks.

Rubin, Hannah [University of Tennessee, Knoxville ↗