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Thermal Effects on Far-Field Distributed Acoustic Strain-Rate Sensors

Summary Fiber-optic cables cemented outside of the casing of an unconventional well measure crosswell strain changes during fracturing of neighboring wells with low-frequency distributed acoustic sensing (LF-DAS). As a hydraulic fracture intersects an observation well instrumented with fiber-optic cables, the fracture fluid injected at ambient temperatures can cool a section of the sensing fiber. Often, LF-DAS and distributed temperature sensing (DTS) cables are run in tandem, enabling the detection of such cooling events. The increasing use of LF-DAS for characterizing unconventional hydraulic fracture completions demands an investigation of the effects of temperature on the measured strain response by LF-DAS. Researchers have demonstrated that LF-DAS can be used to extract the temporal derivative of temperature for use as a differential-temperature-gradient sensor. However, differential-temperature-gradient sensing is predicated on the ability to filter strain components out of the optical signal. In this work, beginning with an equation for optical phase shift of LF-DAS signals, a model relating strain, temperature, and optical phase shift is explicitly developed. The formula provides insights into the relative strength of strain and temperature effects on the phase shift. The uncertainty in the strain-rate measurements due to thermal effects is estimated. The relationship can also be used to quantify uncertainties in differential-temperature-gradient sensors due to strain perturbations. Additionally, a workflow is presented to simulate the LF-DAS response accounting for both strain and temperature effects. Hydraulic fracture geometries are generated with a 3D fracture simulator for a multistage unconventional completion. The fracture width distributions are imported by a displacement discontinuity method (DDM) program to compute the strain rates along an observation well. An analytic model is used to approximate the temperature in the fracture. Using the derived formulae for optical phase shift, the model outputs are then used to compute the LF-DAS response at a fiber-optic cable, enabling the generation of waterfall plots including both strain and thermal effects. The model results suggest that before, during, and immediately following a fracture intersecting a well instrumented with fiber, the strain on the fiber drives the LF-DAS signal. However, at later times, as completion fluid cools the observation well, the temperature component of the LF-DAS signal can be equal to or exceed the strain component. The modeled results are compared to a published field case in an attempt to enhance the interpretation of LF-DAS waterfall plots. Finally, we propose a sensing configuration to identify the events when “wet fractures” (fractures with fluids) intersect the observation well.

Engineering↗

Prevention of Dual-Mode Excitation in 9-Cell Cavities for LCLSII-HE

Dual-Mode Excitation, also referred to as mode-mixing, is a superposition of two fundamental pi modes in an SRF cavity. In 9-cell TESLA cavities used for the LCLSII-HE project, the two modes that are commonly excited are the pi mode (1300.2 MHz), and the 7/9 pi mode (1297.8 MHz). During vertical cavity qualification testing, only the pi mode is driven by the RF system. However, at high gradients, emitted power at the frequency of the 7/9 pi mode grows despite the RF system only powering the pi mode. When this happens, the RF power measurement system is unable to differentiate between the superimposed modes, and any data taken is invalid. The previous method of dealing with mode-mixing was to turn off power to the cavity, let both modes decay fully, then restore power. Because of the time-sensitive nature of this testing, this leads to underestimates of Q0 or any radiant field emission present in the cavity. The novel RF control solution prevents the 7/9 pi mode from being excited while not interfering with measurements of the fundamental pi mode. A second RF control system is connected to the cavity which drives the 7/9 pi mode. The loop phase for driving the 7/9 pi mode in self excited loop mode is determined then shifted by 180 degrees, thus providing a negative feedback to the undesired mode. Because this off-resonance power can be very small, on the order of milliwatts, it does not interfere with the high-power measurements of the fundamental pi mode. At Jefferson Lab, we are now able to test a cavity for the LCLSII-HE project with no problems from mode-mixing, which allows for CW processing of high-gradient multipacting and field emission.

Owen, Peter↗

2019 and 2022 Twin Cities Travel Behavior Inventory Surveys

# 2019 and 2022 Twin Cities Travel Behavior Inventory Surveys To help local and regional planning agencies understand shifting demographics and travel patterns, surveys were conducted in Minnesota’s greater Twin Cities region in 2019 and 2022. Survey results aided the Metropolitan Council in proposing practical transportation investments, preparing competitive grant applications, and prioritizing improvements to best fit regional needs. ## Data Collection Agency RSG conducted the surveys for the Metropolitan Council. ## Survey Methodology These mixed-mode surveys focused on bus, rail, car, micromobility, ride-hailing, and walking. Designed as household travel surveys, they were carried out in English, Spanish, Karen, Oromo, Somali, and Hmong during two timeframes: Oct. 1, 2018—Sept. 30, 2019 and June 22, 2021—Feb. 5, 2022. Participants accessed the surveys using a smartphone-based app, website, or call center. A questionnaire captured data about demographics, daily travel activities, and typical transportation patterns to inform model updates and gain information about emerging behavioral changes such as electric vehicle adoption and teleworking frequency. It also addressed the impacts of COVID-19 on participants’ typical travel behavior. ## Survey Records, Data, and Documentation Survey records include a total of 31,251 participants—16,152 participants from 7,837 households during the 2019 survey and 15,099 participants from 7,952 households during the 2022 survey.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

2019 and 2022 Twin Cities Travel Behavior Inventory Surveys

# 2019 and 2022 Twin Cities Travel Behavior Inventory Surveys To help local and regional planning agencies understand shifting demographics and travel patterns, surveys were conducted in Minnesota’s greater Twin Cities region in 2019 and 2022. Survey results aided the Metropolitan Council in proposing practical transportation investments, preparing competitive grant applications, and prioritizing improvements to best fit regional needs. ## Data Collection Agency RSG conducted the surveys for the Metropolitan Council. ## Survey Methodology These mixed-mode surveys focused on bus, rail, car, micromobility, ride-hailing, and walking. Designed as household travel surveys, they were carried out in English, Spanish, Karen, Oromo, Somali, and Hmong during two timeframes: Oct. 1, 2018—Sept. 30, 2019 and June 22, 2021—Feb. 5, 2022. Participants accessed the surveys using a smartphone-based app, website, or call center. A questionnaire captured data about demographics, daily travel activities, and typical transportation patterns to inform model updates and gain information about emerging behavioral changes such as electric vehicle adoption and teleworking frequency. It also addressed the impacts of COVID-19 on participants’ typical travel behavior. ## Survey Records, Data, and Documentation Survey records include a total of 31,251 participants—16,152 participants from 7,837 households during the 2019 survey and 15,099 participants from 7,952 households during the 2022 survey.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

2019 and 2022 Twin Cities Travel Behavior Inventory Surveys

# 2019 and 2022 Twin Cities Travel Behavior Inventory Surveys To help local and regional planning agencies understand shifting demographics and travel patterns, surveys were conducted in Minnesota’s greater Twin Cities region in 2019 and 2022. Survey results aided the Metropolitan Council in proposing practical transportation investments, preparing competitive grant applications, and prioritizing improvements to best fit regional needs. ## Data Collection Agency RSG conducted the surveys for the Metropolitan Council. ## Survey Methodology These mixed-mode surveys focused on bus, rail, car, micromobility, ride-hailing, and walking. Designed as household travel surveys, they were carried out in English, Spanish, Karen, Oromo, Somali, and Hmong during two timeframes: Oct. 1, 2018—Sept. 30, 2019 and June 22, 2021—Feb. 5, 2022. Participants accessed the surveys using a smartphone-based app, website, or call center. A questionnaire captured data about demographics, daily travel activities, and typical transportation patterns to inform model updates and gain information about emerging behavioral changes such as electric vehicle adoption and teleworking frequency. It also addressed the impacts of COVID-19 on participants’ typical travel behavior. ## Survey Records, Data, and Documentation Survey records include a total of 31,251 participants—16,152 participants from 7,837 households during the 2019 survey and 15,099 participants from 7,952 households during the 2022 survey.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

2019 and 2022 Twin Cities Travel Behavior Inventory Surveys

# 2019 and 2022 Twin Cities Travel Behavior Inventory Surveys To help local and regional planning agencies understand shifting demographics and travel patterns, surveys were conducted in Minnesota’s greater Twin Cities region in 2019 and 2022. Survey results aided the Metropolitan Council in proposing practical transportation investments, preparing competitive grant applications, and prioritizing improvements to best fit regional needs. ## Data Collection Agency RSG conducted the surveys for the Metropolitan Council. ## Survey Methodology These mixed-mode surveys focused on bus, rail, car, micromobility, ride-hailing, and walking. Designed as household travel surveys, they were carried out in English, Spanish, Karen, Oromo, Somali, and Hmong during two timeframes: Oct. 1, 2018—Sept. 30, 2019 and June 22, 2021—Feb. 5, 2022. Participants accessed the surveys using a smartphone-based app, website, or call center. A questionnaire captured data about demographics, daily travel activities, and typical transportation patterns to inform model updates and gain information about emerging behavioral changes such as electric vehicle adoption and teleworking frequency. It also addressed the impacts of COVID-19 on participants’ typical travel behavior. ## Survey Records, Data, and Documentation Survey records include a total of 31,251 participants—16,152 participants from 7,837 households during the 2019 survey and 15,099 participants from 7,952 households during the 2022 survey.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

2019 and 2022 Twin Cities Travel Behavior Inventory Surveys

# 2019 and 2022 Twin Cities Travel Behavior Inventory Surveys To help local and regional planning agencies understand shifting demographics and travel patterns, surveys were conducted in Minnesota’s greater Twin Cities region in 2019 and 2022. Survey results aided the Metropolitan Council in proposing practical transportation investments, preparing competitive grant applications, and prioritizing improvements to best fit regional needs. ## Data Collection Agency RSG conducted the surveys for the Metropolitan Council. ## Survey Methodology These mixed-mode surveys focused on bus, rail, car, micromobility, ride-hailing, and walking. Designed as household travel surveys, they were carried out in English, Spanish, Karen, Oromo, Somali, and Hmong during two timeframes: Oct. 1, 2018—Sept. 30, 2019 and June 22, 2021—Feb. 5, 2022. Participants accessed the surveys using a smartphone-based app, website, or call center. A questionnaire captured data about demographics, daily travel activities, and typical transportation patterns to inform model updates and gain information about emerging behavioral changes such as electric vehicle adoption and teleworking frequency. It also addressed the impacts of COVID-19 on participants’ typical travel behavior. ## Survey Records, Data, and Documentation Survey records include a total of 31,251 participants—16,152 participants from 7,837 households during the 2019 survey and 15,099 participants from 7,952 households during the 2022 survey.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

2019 and 2022 Twin Cities Travel Behavior Inventory Surveys

# 2019 and 2022 Twin Cities Travel Behavior Inventory Surveys To help local and regional planning agencies understand shifting demographics and travel patterns, surveys were conducted in Minnesota’s greater Twin Cities region in 2019 and 2022. Survey results aided the Metropolitan Council in proposing practical transportation investments, preparing competitive grant applications, and prioritizing improvements to best fit regional needs. ## Data Collection Agency RSG conducted the surveys for the Metropolitan Council. ## Survey Methodology These mixed-mode surveys focused on bus, rail, car, micromobility, ride-hailing, and walking. Designed as household travel surveys, they were carried out in English, Spanish, Karen, Oromo, Somali, and Hmong during two timeframes: Oct. 1, 2018—Sept. 30, 2019 and June 22, 2021—Feb. 5, 2022. Participants accessed the surveys using a smartphone-based app, website, or call center. A questionnaire captured data about demographics, daily travel activities, and typical transportation patterns to inform model updates and gain information about emerging behavioral changes such as electric vehicle adoption and teleworking frequency. It also addressed the impacts of COVID-19 on participants’ typical travel behavior. ## Survey Records, Data, and Documentation Survey records include a total of 31,251 participants—16,152 participants from 7,837 households during the 2019 survey and 15,099 participants from 7,952 households during the 2022 survey.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

2019 and 2022 Twin Cities Travel Behavior Inventory Surveys

# 2019 and 2022 Twin Cities Travel Behavior Inventory Surveys To help local and regional planning agencies understand shifting demographics and travel patterns, surveys were conducted in Minnesota’s greater Twin Cities region in 2019 and 2022. Survey results aided the Metropolitan Council in proposing practical transportation investments, preparing competitive grant applications, and prioritizing improvements to best fit regional needs. ## Data Collection Agency RSG conducted the surveys for the Metropolitan Council. ## Survey Methodology These mixed-mode surveys focused on bus, rail, car, micromobility, ride-hailing, and walking. Designed as household travel surveys, they were carried out in English, Spanish, Karen, Oromo, Somali, and Hmong during two timeframes: Oct. 1, 2018—Sept. 30, 2019 and June 22, 2021—Feb. 5, 2022. Participants accessed the surveys using a smartphone-based app, website, or call center. A questionnaire captured data about demographics, daily travel activities, and typical transportation patterns to inform model updates and gain information about emerging behavioral changes such as electric vehicle adoption and teleworking frequency. It also addressed the impacts of COVID-19 on participants’ typical travel behavior. ## Survey Records, Data, and Documentation Survey records include a total of 31,251 participants—16,152 participants from 7,837 households during the 2019 survey and 15,099 participants from 7,952 households during the 2022 survey.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

2019 and 2022 Twin Cities Travel Behavior Inventory Surveys

# 2019 and 2022 Twin Cities Travel Behavior Inventory Surveys To help local and regional planning agencies understand shifting demographics and travel patterns, surveys were conducted in Minnesota’s greater Twin Cities region in 2019 and 2022. Survey results aided the Metropolitan Council in proposing practical transportation investments, preparing competitive grant applications, and prioritizing improvements to best fit regional needs. ## Data Collection Agency RSG conducted the surveys for the Metropolitan Council. ## Survey Methodology These mixed-mode surveys focused on bus, rail, car, micromobility, ride-hailing, and walking. Designed as household travel surveys, they were carried out in English, Spanish, Karen, Oromo, Somali, and Hmong during two timeframes: Oct. 1, 2018—Sept. 30, 2019 and June 22, 2021—Feb. 5, 2022. Participants accessed the surveys using a smartphone-based app, website, or call center. A questionnaire captured data about demographics, daily travel activities, and typical transportation patterns to inform model updates and gain information about emerging behavioral changes such as electric vehicle adoption and teleworking frequency. It also addressed the impacts of COVID-19 on participants’ typical travel behavior. ## Survey Records, Data, and Documentation Survey records include a total of 31,251 participants—16,152 participants from 7,837 households during the 2019 survey and 15,099 participants from 7,952 households during the 2022 survey.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

2019 and 2022 Twin Cities Travel Behavior Inventory Surveys

# 2019 and 2022 Twin Cities Travel Behavior Inventory Surveys To help local and regional planning agencies understand shifting demographics and travel patterns, surveys were conducted in Minnesota’s greater Twin Cities region in 2019 and 2022. Survey results aided the Metropolitan Council in proposing practical transportation investments, preparing competitive grant applications, and prioritizing improvements to best fit regional needs. ## Data Collection Agency RSG conducted the surveys for the Metropolitan Council. ## Survey Methodology These mixed-mode surveys focused on bus, rail, car, micromobility, ride-hailing, and walking. Designed as household travel surveys, they were carried out in English, Spanish, Karen, Oromo, Somali, and Hmong during two timeframes: Oct. 1, 2018—Sept. 30, 2019 and June 22, 2021—Feb. 5, 2022. Participants accessed the surveys using a smartphone-based app, website, or call center. A questionnaire captured data about demographics, daily travel activities, and typical transportation patterns to inform model updates and gain information about emerging behavioral changes such as electric vehicle adoption and teleworking frequency. It also addressed the impacts of COVID-19 on participants’ typical travel behavior. ## Survey Records, Data, and Documentation Survey records include a total of 31,251 participants—16,152 participants from 7,837 households during the 2019 survey and 15,099 participants from 7,952 households during the 2022 survey.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

2019 and 2022 Twin Cities Travel Behavior Inventory Surveys

# 2019 and 2022 Twin Cities Travel Behavior Inventory Surveys To help local and regional planning agencies understand shifting demographics and travel patterns, surveys were conducted in Minnesota’s greater Twin Cities region in 2019 and 2022. Survey results aided the Metropolitan Council in proposing practical transportation investments, preparing competitive grant applications, and prioritizing improvements to best fit regional needs. ## Data Collection Agency RSG conducted the surveys for the Metropolitan Council. ## Survey Methodology These mixed-mode surveys focused on bus, rail, car, micromobility, ride-hailing, and walking. Designed as household travel surveys, they were carried out in English, Spanish, Karen, Oromo, Somali, and Hmong during two timeframes: Oct. 1, 2018—Sept. 30, 2019 and June 22, 2021—Feb. 5, 2022. Participants accessed the surveys using a smartphone-based app, website, or call center. A questionnaire captured data about demographics, daily travel activities, and typical transportation patterns to inform model updates and gain information about emerging behavioral changes such as electric vehicle adoption and teleworking frequency. It also addressed the impacts of COVID-19 on participants’ typical travel behavior. ## Survey Records, Data, and Documentation Survey records include a total of 31,251 participants—16,152 participants from 7,837 households during the 2019 survey and 15,099 participants from 7,952 households during the 2022 survey.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Molecular Cage Reports on Its Contents: Spectroscopic Signatures of Cryo-Cooled K + - and Ba 2+ -Benzocryptand Complexes

UV photofragment spectroscopy and IR–UV double resonance methods are used to determine the structure and spectroscopic responses of a three-dimensional [2.2.2]-benzocryptand cage to the incorporation of a single K + or Ba 2+ imbedded inside it (labeled as K + -BzCrypt, Ba 2+ -BzCrypt). We studied the isolated ion-cryptand complex under cryo-cooled conditions, brought into the gas phase by nano-electrospray ionization. Incorporation of a phenyl ring in place of the central ethyl group in one of the three N-CH 2 -CH 2 -O-CH 2 -CH 2 -O-CH 2 -CH 2 -N chains provides a UV chromophore whose S 0 –S 1 transition we probe. K + -BzCrypt and Ba 2+ -BzCrypt have their S 0 –S 1 origin transitions at 35,925 and 36,446 cm –1 , respectively, blue-shifted by 174 and 695 cm –1 from that of 1,2-dimethoxybenzene. These origins are used to excite a single conformation of each complex selectively and record their IR spectra using IR–UV dip spectroscopy. The alkyl CH stretch region (2800–3000 cm –1 ) is surprisingly sensitive to the presence and nature of the encapsulated ion. We carried out an exhaustive conformational search of cage conformations for K + -BzCrypt and Ba 2+ -BzCrypt, identifying two conformations (A and B) that lie below all others in energy. Here, we extend our local mode anharmonic model of the CH stretch region to these strongly bound ion-cage complexes to predict conformation-specific alkyl CH stretch spectra, obtaining quantitative agreement with experiment for conformer A, the gas-phase global minimum. The large electrostatic effect of the charge on the O- and N-lone pairs affects the local mode frequencies of the CH 2 groups adjacent to these atoms. The localized CH 2 scissors modes are pushed up in frequency by the adjacent O/N-atoms so that their overtones have little effect on the alkyl CH stretch region. However, the localized CH 2 wags are nearly degenerate and strongly coupled to one another, producing an array of delocalized wag normal modes, whose highest frequency members reach up above 1400 cm –1 . As such, their overtones mix significantly with the CH stretch modes, most notably involving the CH 2 symmetric stretch fundamentals of the central ethyl groups in the all-alkyl chains and the CH stretches adjacent to the N-atoms and antiperiplanar to the nitrogen lone pair.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Nonlocal subpicosecond delay metrology using spectral quantum interference

Precise knowledge of position and timing information is critical to support elementary protocols such as entanglement swapping on quantum networks. While approaches have been devised to use quantum light for such metrology, they largely rely on time-of-flight (ToF) measurements with single-photon detectors and, therefore, are limited to picosecond-scale resolution owing to detector jitter. In this work, we demonstrate an approach to distributed sensing that leverages phase modulation to map changes in the spectral phase to coincidence probability, thereby overcoming the limits imposed by single-photon detection. By extracting information about the joint biphoton phase, we measure a generalized delay—the difference in signal–idler arrival, relative to local radio frequency (RF) phase modulation. For nonlocal ranging measurements, we achieve (2$σ$) precision of ±0.04 ps and for measurements of the relative RF phase, (2$σ$) precision of ±0.7°. We complement this fine timing information with ToF data from single-photon time-tagging to demonstrate absolute measurement of time delay. By relying on off-the-shelf telecommunications equipment and standard quantum resources, this approach has the potential to reduce overhead in practical quantum networks.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Impurity leakage and radiative cooling in the first nitrogen and neon seeding study in the closed DIII-D SAS configuration

A comparative study of nitrogen versus neon has been carried out to analyze the impact of the two radiative species on power dissipation, SOL impurity distribution, divertor and pedestal characteristics. The experimental results show that N remains compressed in the divertor, thereby providing high radiative losses without affecting the pedestal profiles and displacing carbon as dominant radiator. Neon, instead, radiates more upstream than N thus reducing the power flux through the separatrix leading to a reduced ELM frequency and compression in the divertor. A significant amount of neon is measured in the plasma core leading to a steeper density gradient. The different behavior between the two impurities is confirmed by SOLPS-ITER modeling which for the first time at DIII-D includes multiple impurity species and a treatment of full drifts, currents and neutral–neutral collisions. The impurity transport in the SOL is studied in terms of the parallel momentum balance showing that N is mostly retained in the divertor whereas Ne leaks out consistent with its higher ionization potential and longer mean free path. This is also in agreement with the enrichment factor calculations which indicate lower divertor enrichment for neon. The strong ionization source characterizing the SAS divertor causes a reversal of the main ions and impurity flows. The flow reversal together with plasma drifts and the effect of the thermal force contribute significantly in the shift of the impurity stagnation point affecting impurity leakage. This work provides a demonstration of the impurity leakage mechanism in a closed divertor structure and the consequent impact on pedestal. Since carbon is an intrinsic radiator at DIII-D, in this paper we have also demonstrated the different role of carbon in the N vs Ne seeded cases both in the experiments and in the numerical modeling. Here, carbon contributes more when neon seeding is injected compared to when nitrogen is used. Finally, the results highlight the importance of accompanying experimental studies with numerical modeling of plasma flows, drifts and ionization profile to determine the details of the SOL impurity transport as the latter may vary with changes in divertor regime and geometry. In the cases presented here, plasma drifts and flow reversal caused by high level of closure in the slot upper divertor at DIII-D play an important role in the underlined mechanism.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Quantum dynamics in strongly driven random dipolar magnets

The random dipolar magnet LiHo x Y 1– x F 4 enters a strongly frustrated regime for small Ho 3+ concentrations with x < 0.05. In this regime, the magnetic moments of the Ho 3+ ions experience small quantum corrections to the common Ising approximation of LiHo x Y 1– x F 4 , which lead to a $\mathbb{Z}_2$-symmetry breaking and small, degeneracy breaking energy shifts between different eigenstates. Here we show that destructive interference between two almost degenerate excitation pathways burns spectral holes in the magnetic susceptibility of strongly driven magnetic moments in LiHo x Y 1– x F 4 . Such spectral holes in the susceptibility, microscopically described in terms of Fano resonances, can already occur in setups of only two or three frustrated moments, for which the driven level scheme has the paradigmatic Λ shape. For larger clusters of magnetic moments, the corresponding level schemes separate into almost isolated many-body Λ schemes, in the sense that either the transition matrix elements between them are negligibly small or the energy difference of the transitions is strongly off-resonant to the drive. This enables the observation of Fano resonances, caused by many-body quantum corrections to the common Ising approximation also in the thermodynamic limit. Finally, we discuss its dependence on the driving strength and frequency as well as the crucial role that is played by lattice dissipation.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Planting miscanthus instead of row crops may increase the productivity and economic performance of farmed potholes

Abstract Climate change projections indicate that precipitation events in the central United States are expected to become more intense, more frequent in the spring, and less frequent in the summer. Such a precipitation shift could adversely impact crop yields, especially in subfield areas known as farmed potholes, which are highly susceptible to flooding and ponding, and crop death is more likely to occur, particularly early in the growing season. This suggests that planting alternative crops, such as more flood tolerant perennials, in these areas may be a more profitable option. Using observations of crop growth and yield along with ponding depth of a specific field and farmed pothole in the central United States, we developed a spatially explicit version of the agroecosystem model Agro‐IBIS to estimate water depth and crop yield. After evaluating the model, we conducted a case study for a specific farmed pothole with a range of future precipitation scenarios with Agro‐IBIS to simulate the effects of contemporary (2002–2016) and future precipitation on a conventional corn/soybean ( Zea mays L. and Glycine max Merr.) rotation and an alternative perennial miscanthus ( Miscanthus × giganteus Greef et Deu.) cropping system. The depth and frequency of ponding increased under most future precipitation scenarios. The corn/soybean rotation had greater total loss (i.e., no yield) on average (>30%) for all scenarios in comparison to miscanthus (<10%). Under one future precipitation scenario with increased spring precipitation, both the corn/soybean rotation and miscanthus simulations showed an increase in yield. A simple budget analysis indicated that it is more profitable to plant miscanthus instead of corn or soybeans where yields in farmed potholes are consistently poor. Our findings show that potholes can be individually modeled, and their influence on yield can be quantified for use in future management decisions dictated by change in climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Measurement-Based Approach for Inertia-Trend Analysis of the US Western Interconnection

Rising deployment of inverter-based resources (IBRs), characterized by a lack of rotating mass, is decreasing the total inertia of the system. This can lead to an increased Rate of Change of Frequency (RoCoF) during the disturbance and false activation of protective devices. There is a need to assess the inertia over the past decade amidst the evolving landscape of renewable energy sources to develop strategies for integrating energy storage, enhancing resilience measures, and ensuring the stable and reliable operation of the grid. Therefore, a realistic assessment of the inertia trend using a measurement-based approach that addresses the limitations of existing models is proposed. An inertia study of the Western Interconnection in the United States is performed utilizing the data from 2013 to 2022, obtained from FNET/ GridEye network. The three-second RoCoF time window is chosen for the study as it showed an optimum balance between a strong correlation with the power imbalance (ΔP) and minimum inclusion of primary response from governor. The obtained inertia trend result shows a small percentage declination of inertia over the decade. By examining the result alongside a generation mix graph, insights are gained into the dynamic interplay between shifting energy landscape and system inertia.

Dulal, Saurav↗