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DOE OSTI2024

Risk-Aware Framework Development for Disruption Prediction: Alcator C-Mod and DIII-D Survival Analysis

Abstract Survival regression models can achieve longer warning times at similar receiver operating characteristic performance than previously investigated models. Survival regression models are also shown to predict the time until a disruption will occur with lower error than other predictors. Time-to-event predictions from time-series data can be obtained with a survival analysis statistical framework, and there have been many tools developed for this task which we aim to apply to disruption prediction. Using the open-source Auton-Survival package we have implemented disruption predictors with the survival regression models Cox Proportional Hazards, Deep Cox Proportional Hazards, and Deep Survival Machines. To compare with previous work, we also include predictors using a Random Forest binary classifier, and a conditional Kaplan-Meier formalism. We benchmarked the performance of these five predictors using experimental data from the Alcator C-Mod and DIII-D tokamaks by simulating alarms on each individual shot. We find that developing machine-relevant metrics to evaluate models is an important area for future work. While this study finds cases where disruptive conditions are not predicted, there are instances where the desired outcome is produced. Giving the plasma control system the expected time-to-disruption will allow it to determine the optimal actuator response in real time to minimize risk of damage to the device.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Framework for Identifying Building Energy Models of Localized Utility Service Areas Using Smart Meter Data

Bottom-up load modeling of buildings offers a versatile approach to simulating baseline demand and scenarios of future technology evolution and adoption at the individual building level. This capability is essential to understanding how future load shapes may change with the adoption of electric equipment and vehicles, particularly as it relates to grid planning and infrastructure investments. Traditionally, grid planning techniques have used historical load data to predict future load and infrastructure needs. However, with the anticipated rise in adoption of electrification technologies such as heat pumps and electric vehicles, historical data become less reliable predictors of the future. By employing ResStock, a high-fidelity building stock modeling tool, we can fine-tune electrification scenarios and aggregate models to represent varying geographic resolutions of the grid system, while considering the underlying features of homes. This may enable a more accurate and responsive approach to anticipate and plan for the evolving landscape of energy demands. We present a new framework that leverages building stock energy modeling to identify building models that align with the load shapes and housing attributes of buildings with AMI data. This approach applies two model layers: (1) a classification step that identifies the presence of air conditioning, electric heating, and electric water heating, and (2) an optimization routine that identifies building energy models aligning with load profile data from advanced metering infrastructure meters. This report demonstrates one approach to deploying this framework, and presents results for three test cases that use both modeled and AMI data to assess performance. For a test case using AMI data in Fort Collins, Colorado, we observed a median monthly electricity load CV-RMSE of 16.6%, and a top ten daily heating and cooling median absolute percent error of 7.7% and 8.3%, respectively. For each AMI meter, we identify a set of potential energy models so that downstream use-cases can account for uncertainty driven by variability of baseline technologies and occupant behavior, which impact the response to electrification and energy efficiency scenarios. Our results indicate that ResStock has potential as a scalable solution for modeling residential energy demand at local grid resolutions. Its performance depends on location-specific factors, underlying building characteristics, and the level of aggregation, offering a path towards more precise and adaptive distribution grid planning for the evolving energy landscape.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Overview of oxygen opacity experiments at the National Ignition Facility and investigation of potential systematic errors

Experiments to measure oxygen opacity at stellar interior conditions have been performed at the National Ignition Facility in a Discovery Science campaign. These experiments utilize the Opacity-on-NIF platform with a sample comprised of O, Mg, and Si. The spectral data from the Opacity Spectrometer cover the 1000–2000 eV photon energy range showing bound-free continuum absorption from O and line absorption from Mg and Si. DANTE and the Gated X-ray Detector are employed to measure the sample plasma’s temperature and density, respectively. Initial data show lower transmission than expected by theoretical models, raising questions of whether potential background or data uniformity concerns could produce systematic errors in the inferred transmission. Here, we investigate three concerns thought to be important for the oxygen opacity data, including instrumental scattered background, sample self-emission non-uniformity, and backlight continuum non-uniformity. Additionally, we show the effect of a recently developed method to account for 2nd order crystal reflection. The total effect of these concerns on one experiment is found to be small compared to the observed difference between the inferred transmission and a model calculation at the inferred temperature and density. Thus, we conclude that these potential sources of systematic error cannot account for the observed difference, increasing the likelihood of a real effect due to the high temperature and density conditions. However, because this is only a single experiment, we cannot make a firm conclusion. More experiments measuring the opacity and necessary calibrations are needed to assess the reproducibility and uncertainty of this result.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2009

Hardware Implementation of Serially Concatenated PPM Decoder

A prototype decoder for a serially concatenated pulse position modulation (SCPPM) code has been implemented in a field-programmable gate array (FPGA). At the time of this reporting, this is the first known hardware SCPPM decoder. The SCPPM coding scheme, conceived for free-space optical communications with both deep-space and terrestrial applications in mind, is an improvement of several dB over the conventional Reed-Solomon PPM scheme. The design of the FPGA SCPPM decoder is based on a turbo decoding algorithm that requires relatively low computational complexity while delivering error-rate performance within approximately 1 dB of channel capacity. The SCPPM encoder consists of an outer convolutional encoder, an interleaver, an accumulator, and an inner modulation encoder (more precisely, a mapping of bits to PPM symbols). Each code is describable by a trellis (a finite directed graph). The SCPPM decoder consists of an inner soft-in-soft-out (SISO) module, a de-interleaver, an outer SISO module, and an interleaver connected in a loop (see figure). Each SISO module applies the Bahl-Cocke-Jelinek-Raviv (BCJR) algorithm to compute a-posteriori bit log-likelihood ratios (LLRs) from apriori LLRs by traversing the code trellis in forward and backward directions. The SISO modules iteratively refine the LLRs by passing the estimates between one another much like the working of a turbine engine. Extrinsic information (the difference between the a-posteriori and a-priori LLRs) is exchanged rather than the a-posteriori LLRs to minimize undesired feedback. All computations are performed in the logarithmic domain, wherein multiplications are translated into additions, thereby reducing complexity and sensitivity to fixed-point implementation roundoff errors. To lower the required memory for storing channel likelihood data and the amounts of data transfer between the decoder and the receiver, one can discard the majority of channel likelihoods, using only the remainder in operation of the decoder. This is accomplished in the receiver by transmitting only a subset consisting of the likelihoods that correspond to time slots containing the largest numbers of observed photons during each PPM symbol period. The assumed number of observed photons in the remaining time slots is set to the mean of a noise slot. In low background noise, the selection of a small subset in this manner results in only negligible loss. Other features of the decoder design to reduce complexity and increase speed include (1) quantization of metrics in an efficient procedure chosen to incur no more than a small performance loss and (2) the use of the max-star function that allows sum of exponentials to be computed by simple operations that involve only an addition, a subtraction, and a table lookup. Another prominent feature of the design is a provision for access to interleaver and de-interleaver memory in a single clock cycle, eliminating the multiple clock-cycle latency characteristic of prior interleaver and de-interleaver designs.

Moision, Bruce↗

NASA NTRS2012

Cumulative Measurement Errors for Dynamic Testing of Space Flight Hardware

Located at the NASA Johnson Space Center in Houston, TX, the Six-Degree-of-Freedom Dynamic Test System (SDTS) is a real-time, six degree-of-freedom, short range motion base simulator originally designed to simulate the relative dynamics of two bodies in space mating together (i.e., docking or berthing). The SDTS has the capability to test full scale docking and berthing systems utilizing a two body dynamic docking simulation for docking operations and a Space Station Remote Manipulator System (SSRMS) simulation for berthing operations. The SDTS can also be used for nonmating applications such as sensors and instruments evaluations requiring proximity or short range motion operations. The motion base is a hydraulic powered Stewart platform, capable of supporting a 3,500 lb payload with a positional accuracy of 0.03 inches. The SDTS is currently being used for the NASA Docking System testing and has been also used by other government agencies. The SDTS is also under consideration for use by commercial companies. Examples of tests include the verification of on-orbit robotic inspection systems, space vehicle assembly procedures and docking/berthing systems. The facility integrates a dynamic simulation of on-orbit spacecraft mating or de-mating using flight-like mechanical interface hardware. A force moment sensor is used for input during the contact phase, thus simulating the contact dynamics. While the verification of flight hardware presents unique challenges, one particular area of interest involves the use of external measurement systems to ensure accurate feedback of dynamic contact. The measurement systems for the test facility have two separate functions. The first is to take static measurements of facility and test hardware to determine both the static and moving frames used in the simulation and control system. The test hardware must be measured after each configuration change to determine both sets of reference frames. The second function is to take dynamic measurements during hardware motion and contact. While performing dynamic testing of an active docking system, researchers found that the data from the motion platform, test hardware and two external measurement systems exhibited frame offsets and rotational errors. While the errors were relatively small when considering the motion scale overall, they substantially exceeded the individual accuracies for each component. After evaluating both the static and dynamic measurements, researchers found that the static measurements introduced significantly more error into the system than the dynamic measurements even though, in theory, the static measurement errors should be smaller than the dynamic. In several cases, the magnitude of the errors varied widely for the static measurements. Upon further investigation, researchers found the larger errors to be a consequence of hardware alignment issues, frame location and measurement technique whereas the smaller errors were dependent on the number of measurement points. This paper details and quantifies the individual and cumulative errors of the docking system and describes methods for reducing the overall measurement error. The overall quality of the dynamic docking tests for flight hardware verification was improved by implementing these error reductions.

Winnitoy, Susan↗

NASA NTRS1978

Precision attitude determination for multimission spacecraft

Attitude determination algorithms for a multimission spacecraft are derived and their performance analyzed. The attitude determination system is composed of a strapdown Inertial Reference Unit (IRU), two fixed head star trackers, and an onboard computer. IRU data is processed to maintain real-time knowledge of spacecraft attitude relative to an inertial reference frame. Star tracker data is processed using Kalman filtering techniques to estimate and correct the attitude determination errors and the gyro drift compensation errors. The results of a star availability analysis for stellar, solar and earth pointing missions are presented. Linear covariance analysis techniques are used to evaluate nominal attitude determination performance, the effects of sensor measurement accuracy variations, the effects of errors in knowledge of sensor measurement accuracy, and the effects of star tracker misalignment errors. Results of a nonlinear simulation analysis of attitude determination performance are also presented. These analyses show that precision attitude determination for stellar, solar and earth pointing missions is achieved.

Murrell, J. W.↗

NASA NTRS1982

The effects of transmitter/receiver clock time-base instability on coherent communication system performance

The purpose of this paper is to present a model and associated analysis of the deleterious effects which both transmitter and receiver data clock time-base instability have on bit-error probability. The types of time-base instability modeled and analyzed include what is commonly referred to as bit jitter (epoch jitter), bit-jitter rate (time interval jitter), and data asymmetry. The bit-error probability is determined as a function of the statistical characteristics of the time-base instability, the data-transition density, the signal-to-noise ratio in the bit-rate bandwidth and the mechanizations of both the data-bit detector and bit synchronizer. The latter is manifested through the bit synchronizer's natural frequency and loop-damping parameters. Numerical results which indicate the sensitivity of the system bit-error rate to various parameters of the model are provided.

Chie, C. M.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Improved instrumental magnitude prediction expected from version 2 of the NASA SKY2000 master star catalog

The SKY2000 Master Star Catalog (MC), Version 2 and its predecessors have been designed to provide the basic astronomical input data needed for satellite acquisition and attitude determination on NASA spacecraft. Stellar positions and proper motions are the primary MC data required for operations support followed closely by the stellar brightness observed in various standard astronomical passbands. The instrumental red-magnitude prediction subsystem (REDMAG) in the MMSCAT software package computes the expected instrumental color index (CI) [sensor color correction] from an observed astronomical stellar magnitude in the MC and the characteristics of the stellar spectrum, astronomical passband, and sensor sensitivity curve. The computation is more error prone the greater the mismatch of the sensor sensitivity curve characteristics and those of the observed astronomical passbands. This paper presents the preliminary performance analysis of a typical red-sensitive CCDST during acquisition of sensor data from the two Ball CT-601 ST's onboard the Rossi X-Ray Timing Explorer (RXTE). A comparison is made of relative star positions measured in the ST FOV coordinate system with the expected results computed from the recently released Tycho Catalogue. The comparison is repeated for a group of observed stars with nearby, bright neighbors in order to determine the tracker behavior in the presence of an interfering, near neighbor (NN). The results of this analysis will be used to help define a new photoelectric photometric instrumental sensor magnitude system (S) that is based on several thousand bright star magnitudes observed with the PXTE ST's. This new system will be implemented in Version 2 of the SKY2000 MC to provide improved predicted magnitudes in the mission run catalogs.

Sande, C. B.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Survey of Header Compression Techniques

This report provides a summary of several different header compression techniques. The different techniques included are: (1) Van Jacobson's header compression (RFC 1144); (2) SCPS (Space Communications Protocol Standards) header compression (SCPS-TP, SCPS-NP); (3) Robust header compression (ROHC); and (4) The header compression techniques in RFC2507 and RFC2508. The methodology for compression and error correction for these schemes are described in the remainder of this document. All of the header compression schemes support compression over simplex links, provided that the end receiver has some means of sending data back to the sender. However, if that return path does not exist, then neither Van Jacobson's nor SCPS can be used, since both rely on TCP (Transmission Control Protocol). In addition, under link conditions of low delay and low error, all of the schemes perform as expected. However, based on the methodology of the schemes, each scheme is likely to behave differently as conditions degrade. Van Jacobson's header compression relies heavily on the TCP retransmission timer and would suffer an increase in loss propagation should the link possess a high delay and/or bit error rate (BER). The SCPS header compression scheme protects against high delay environments by avoiding delta encoding between packets. Thus, loss propagation is avoided. However, SCPS is still affected by an increased BER (bit-error-rate) since the lack of delta encoding results in larger header sizes. Next, the schemes found in RFC2507 and RFC2508 perform well for non-TCP connections in poor conditions. RFC2507 performance with TCP connections is improved by various techniques over Van Jacobson's, but still suffers a performance hit with poor link properties. Also, RFC2507 offers the ability to send TCP data without delta encoding, similar to what SCPS offers. ROHC is similar to the previous two schemes, but adds additional CRCs (cyclic redundancy check) into headers and improves compression schemes which provide better tolerances in conditions with a high BER.

Ishac, Joseph↗

NASA NTRS1993

An improved algorithm for retrieval of snow wetness using C-band AIRSAR

This study shows recent results of our efforts to develop and verify an algorithm for snow wetness retrieval from a polarimetric SAR (Synthetic Aperture Radar). Our algorithm is based on the first-order scattering model with consideration of both surface and volume scattering. It operates at C-band and requires only rough information about the ice volume fraction in snowpack. Comparing ground measurements and inferred from JPL AIRSAR data, the results showed that the relative error inferred from SAR imagery was within 25 percent. The inferred snow wetness from different looking geometries (two flight passes) provided consistent results within 2 percent. Both regional and point measurement comparisons between the ground and SAR derived snow wetness indicates that the inversion algorithm performs well using AIRSAR (Airborne Synthetic Aperture Radar) data and should prove useful for routine and large-area snow wetness (in top layer of a snowpack) measurements.

Shi, Jiancheng↗

DOE OSTI2026

Latent space dynamics identification for interface tracking with application to shock-induced pore collapse

Capturing sharp, evolving interfaces remains a central challenge in reduced-order modeling, especially when data is limited and the system exhibits localized nonlinearities or discontinuities. Here, we propose LaSDI-IT (Latent Space Dynamics Identification for Interface Tracking), a data-driven framework that combines low-dimensional latent dynamics learning with explicit interface-aware encoding to enable accurate and efficient modeling of physical systems involving moving material boundaries. At the core of LaSDI-IT is a revised autoencoder architecture that jointly reconstructs the physical field and an indicator function representing material regions or phases, allowing the model to track complex interface evolution without requiring detailed physical models or mesh adaptation. The latent dynamics are learned through linear regression in the encoded space and generalized across parameter regimes using Gaussian process interpolation with greedy sampling. We demonstrate LaSDI-IT on the problem of shock-induced pore collapse in high explosives, a process characterized by sharp temperature gradients and dynamically deforming pore geometries. The method achieves relative prediction errors below 9% across the parameter space, accurately recovers key quantities of interest such as pore area and hot spot formation, and matches the performance of dense training with only half the data. This latent dynamics prediction was 10 6 times faster than the conventional high-fidelity simulation, proving its utility for multi-query applications. These results highlight LaSDI-IT as a general, data-efficient framework for modeling discontinuity-rich systems in computational physics, with potential applications in multiphase flows, fracture mechanics, and phase change problems.

Gaussian process↗

NASA NTRS1972

The pseudonoise test set: Communication system's performance evaluation based upon RMS error testing

A pseudonoise (PN) test set was built to provide a relatively easy means of accurately determining the end-to-end rms error introduced by a communication system when subjected to wideband data. It utilizes a filtered pseudorandom sequence generator as a wideband data source, providing a convenient means for digitally delaying the input reference signal for comparison with the distorted test communication system output. In addition to providing a means to measure the end-to-end rms error and the average delay of a communication system, the PN test set also provides a means to determine the tested system's impulse response and correlation function. The theory of PN testing is discussed in detail along with the most difficult aspects of implementation, the building of matched filter pairs. Both analytical and empirical results are reported which support the contentions that this is an accurate and practical way to acquire figures of merit for complete communication systems.

Wallace, G. R.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Coded multiple chirp spread spectrum system and overlay service

An asynchronous spread-spectrum system called coded multiple chirp is proposed, and the possible spread-spectrum overlay over an analog FM-TV signal is investigated by computer simulation. Multiple single-sloped up and down chirps are encoded by a pseudonoise code and decoded by dechirpers (pulse-compression filters) followed by a digital code correlator. The performance of the proposed system, expressed in terms of in probability of bit error and code miss probability, is similar to that of FSK (frequency shift keying) using codewords if sufficient compression gain is used. When chirp is used to overlay an FM-TV channel, two chirp signals with data rate up to 25 kb/s could be overlaid in a 36-MHz satellite transponder without significant mutual interference. Performance estimates for a VSAT (very small aperture terminal) earth station operating at C-band show that a 2.4-m antenna and 300-mW transmitter could send a 2.4-kb/s signal to a large central earth station over an occupied channel.

Kim, Junghwan↗

NASA NTRS1977

Analytic investigation of the AEM-A/HCMM attitude control system performance

The Heat Capacity Mapping Mission (HCMM), scheduled for launch in 1978, will be three-axis stabilized relative to the earth in a 600-kilometer altitude, polar orbit. The autonomous attitude control system consists of three torquing coils and a momentum wheel driven in response to error signals computed from data received from an infrared horizon sensor and a magnetometer. This paper presents a simple model of the attitude dynamics and derives the equations that determine the stability of the system during both attitude acquisition (acquisition-mode) and mission operations (mission-mode). Modifications to the proposed mission-mode control laws which speed the system's response to transient attitude errors and reduce the steady-state attitude errors are suggested. Numerical simulations are performed to validate the results obtained with the simple model.

Lerner, G. M.↗

DOE OSTI2025

A new method for measuring refractory corrosion of ceramics in glass

Abstract Nuclear waste glass vitrification furnaces are lined with refractory ceramic blocks to contain the molten glass. The refractory liner is susceptible to corrosion and has a finite service lifetime. For this reason, predicting the refractory corrosion in contact with molten glass is integral to estimating melter service lifetime. Standardized laboratory tests varying time and temperature are commonly performed to estimate refractory material loss as a function of glass composition. These data are time and resource‐intensive to collect and are susceptible to considerable measurement error. In order to accelerate glass formulation and design for nuclear waste vitrification, methods are needed to increase laboratory‐scale throughput while maintaining data quality. In this work, a method to remove the residual glass from a corroded coupon using hydrofluoric acid is presented that accelerates the throughput of sample analysis while simultaneously facilitating more accurate measurements.

Amoroso, Jake W. [Savannah River National Laborato↗

NASA NTRS1976

Experiments with the fourth order GISS general circulation model

The new GISS GCM with 4th order conservative horizontal finite difference is briefly described. A simple forecast performed with real initial data indicates a significant increase in skill with respect to standard 2nd order GISS GCM. The improvement is limited by other sources of errors, especially poor initial data and vertical truncation. It is estimated that with a 4th order - 200 km grid model, errors introduced by horizontal truncation will be negligible for about a week for most synoptic scales (wavelengths larger than 1000 km).

Kalnay-Rivas, E.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Implementation and flight tests for the Digital Integrated Automatic Landing System (DIALS). Part 1: Flight software equations, flight test description and selected flight test data

Five flight tests of the Digital Automated Landing System (DIALS) were conducted on the Advanced Transport Operating Systems (ATOPS) Transportation Research Vehicle (TSRV) -- a modified Boeing 737 aircraft for advanced controls and displays research. These flight tests were conducted at NASA's Wallops Flight Center using the microwave landing system (MLS) installation on runway 22. This report describes the flight software equations of the DIALS which was designed using modern control theory direct-digital design methods and employed a constant gain Kalman filter. Selected flight test performance data is presented for localizer (runway centerline) capture and track at various intercept angles, for glideslope capture and track of 3, 4.5, and 5 degree glideslopes, for the decrab maneuver, and for the flare maneuver. Data is also presented to illustrate the system performance in the presence of cross, gust, and shear winds. The mean and standard deviation of the peak position errors for localizer capture were, respectively, 24 feet and 26 feet. For mild wind conditions, glideslope and localizer tracking position errors did not exceed, respectively, 5 and 20 feet. For gusty wind conditions (8 to 10 knots), these errors were, respectively, 10 and 30 feet. Ten hands off automatic lands were performed. The standard deviation of the touchdown position and velocity errors from the mean values were, respectively, 244 feet and 0.7 feet/sec.

Hueschen, R. M.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Precise interferometric tracking of spacecraft at low sun-earth-probe angles

When a spacecraft is at low sun-earth-probe (SEP) angle, phase perturbations induced in the spacecraft's signal by the solar plasma can impede the acquisition of meaningful spacecraft Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) measurements. This phenomenon imposes limitations on our ability to successfully acquire the spacecraft signal, and also introduces unmodeled errors into data that are successfully acquired. In this paper, an analysis of the solar plasma induced error on interferometric delay rate as a function of SEP angle is performed. In addition, the probability of correct signal phase connection as a function of SEP angle and plasma variability is calculated for 2.3 GHz and 8.4 GHz signals. In December 1986, an experiment was conducted to demonstrate VLBI navigation at low SEP angles, using the Voyager 2 spacecraft. The results of this experiment are consistent with the conclusions reached in the low SEP analysis and are also consistent with a theoretical error model for water vapor fluctuations in the earth's troposphere.

Kahn, Robert D.↗