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DOE OSTI2019

A modular biogeochemical modeling suite for next-generation ocean models (Final Report)

The Marine Biogeochemistry Library (MARBL) is a self-contained implementation of ocean biogeochemistry suitable for incorporation in Earth system models. The default configuration of MARBL represents multiple nutrient co-limitation (N, P, Si, and Fe), includes three explicit phytoplankton functional groups (diatoms, diazotrophs, and pico/nano phytoplankton), and one implicit group (calcifiers); there is one zooplankton group. MARBL includes fully prognostic carbonate chemistry and simulates sinking particulate organic matter implicitly, subject to ballasting by mineral dust, biogenic mineral carbonate and opal. MARBL represents subgrid-scale variations in light, variable C:P stoichiometry, semi-labile and refractory dissolved organic material pools, prognostic oceanic emission of ammonia, and an explicit ligand tracer that complexes iron. MARBL is fully runtime-configurable, and is flexible enough to accommodate a variable number of plankton functional types and ecosystem configurations. Critically, MARBL is implemented to be independent of any particular ocean general circulation model (OGCM); it is a standalone library that interfaces with an OGCM's via an explicit "driver" layer. MARBL can thus be coupled to multiple OGCM's, enabling efficient maintenance, development, and cross-model inter-comparison. MARBL is the ocean biogeochemistry component for the Community Earth System Model and the DOE’s Energy Exascale Earth System Model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

LCOE reduction through proactively optimized monitoring of PV Systems (Final Technical Report)

The project demonstrates the value proposition for a high-resolution monitoring system (HRMS) with diagnostic-prognostic capability and determine its impact on LCOE. The HRMS differs from conventional monitoring systems in a number of ways. First it will include the capability to automatically measure IV curves at the string and module levels. This provides a much richer view into the DC performance of the PV system and allows classification of many typical failure and degradation modes. Second, it will incorporate software capable of quantifying power and energy losses in the field as well as define the location and mechanism of the power and energy loss. Moreover, we aimed to deliver a prognostic system that is capable of predicting certain failures before they occur and giving system operators the opportunity to more efficiently plan operations and maintenance (O&M) activity in order to lower costs and increase yield over the life of the system. The research identifies cost targets required for different monitoring stages, including at the string combiner, at the individual string, and at the module level, to lower the levelized cost of energy (LCOE). Finally, a comprehensive guide determines the value PV monitoring brings to PV field operations. The guide assists plant operators in maximizing value from existing plants and identify the trade-offs of different monitoring solutions for future plants depending on the size, location, and expected system lifetime.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Facilitating Data Collection of Maintenance Events to Populate the Hydrogen Component Reliability Database (HyCReD)

The Hydrogen Component Reliability Database (HyCReD) is a collaborative project between the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, the University of Maryland, and hydrogen stakeholders to improve safety and reliability for hydrogen facilities by implementing component reliability data taxonomies that support hydrogen infrastructure failure rate analysis. The project aims to quantify failure rates of hydrogen components through high-quality data collection and analysis on root causes and maintenance needed. HyCReD provides a common database for cataloging hydrogen component failures which exists for reliability research in many other mature industries [2]. The database fills a gap for the hydrogen community by providing a scientifically rigorous approach to quantitative risk assessment (QRA), prognostic health management (PHM), and reliability-centered maintenance (RCM) analysis. High level results will be aggregated and anonymized to protect company sensitive information; detailed results will be used to help address issues of hydrogen components. These advanced analytics will support accelerated deployment of hydrogen infrastructure by enabling better: design and safety of projects (safety codes and standards development), infrastructure reliability and cost (component failure rates, maintenance protocols), and component R&D needs (robust supply chain). A key to a successful HyCReD implementation is facilitating the ease of reporting and data quality in the database that can be used for analysis. Maintenance data was a previously identified gap in initial efforts to populate and validate the database taxonomies [3]. Collection of maintenance data will be instrumental in identifying failure modes and rates, identifying incipient component failures or reduced performance, cataloging best practices for maintenance routines and methods for prognostic health management, and quantifying the risk and effect of different failure modes. Several key priorities are identified for streamlined data collection to achieve quality and detailed failure data: Applicability, Ease of Use, Accessibility, and Information Security. The HyCReD team has now begun deployment of the database to several companies and groups that have signed non-disclosure agreements to facilitate the data collection of failures in industry hydrogen refueling station infrastructure. This paper will provide an update into the process of HyCReD deployment including the development of a coding guide for facility personnel to reference and ensure data quality and consistency from one station to another as well as implementation of contextually dependent data fields of system taxonomy and formatted entries to provide ease of use. The goal is to communicate the lessons learned from the roll-out to technicians and engineers in the field, and the addition of need for high level of security to protect all stakeholders.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2017

Life Prediction Model for Grid-Connected Li-ion Battery Energy Storage System

Lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries are being deployed on the electrical grid for a variety of purposes, such as to smooth fluctuations in solar renewable power generation. The lifetime of these batteries will vary depending on their thermal environment and how they are charged and discharged. To optimal utilization of a battery over its lifetime requires characterization of its performance degradation under different storage and cycling conditions. Aging tests were conducted on commercial graphite/nickel-manganese-cobalt (NMC) Li-ion cells. A general lifetime prognostic model framework is applied to model changes in capacity and resistance as the battery degrades. Across 9 aging test conditions from 0oC to 55oC, the model predicts capacity fade with 1.4% RMS error and resistance growth with 15% RMS error. The model, recast in state variable form with 8 states representing separate fade mechanisms, is used to extrapolate lifetime for example applications of the energy storage system integrated with renewable photovoltaic (PV) power generation.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Causal Approach to Integrate Component Health Data into System Reliability Models

Two of the challenges of current plant reliability approaches are the ability to integrate plant health data, and to support decision making. Condition based data and diagnostic/prognostic information are in fact not considered into plant reliability models to inform system engineers on the most critical components. Currently, the propagation of quantitative health data from the component to the system level is a challenge given the diverse nature/structure of the data. On the other hand, plant reliability methods (which are typically based on fault-trees or reliability block diagrams) can effectively propagate data from the component to the system level, but values of failure rates or failure probabilities are an approximated integral representation of the past industry-wide operational experience, and it neglects the present component health status (e.g., diagnostic and condition-based data) and health projection (when available from prognostic data). Our first claim is that system reliability models should propagate health information from the component to the system/plant level in order to provide a quantitative snapshot of system/plant health and identify the most critical components. Our second claim is that component health should be informed solely by that specific component current and historical performance data and should not be an approximated integral representation of the past industry-wide operational experience. This paper is directly supporting these two claims by proposing a different approach to perform reliability modeling which relies on available component diagnostic, prognostic and condition-based data to measure component health, and it propagates this information through fault tree models. The propagation of health data from the component to the system level is performed not in terms of probability, but in terms of margins where margin is defined as the “distance” between the present actual status and an undesired event (e.g., failure or unacceptable performance). Through a cause-effect lens, while classical reliability models target the effect associated to a component performance, a margin-based approach focuses on the cause of an undesired component performance (i.e., component health). Hence, thinking of reliability in terms of margins implies decision making based on causal reasoning. We will show how fault tree models can be solved using a margin language and how this process can effectively assist system engineers to identify the most critical components.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Evaluation of sterol-o-acyl transferase 1 and cholesterol ester levels in plasma, peritoneal fluid and tumor tissue of patients with endometrial cancer: A pilot study

Endometrial cancer (EC) is the most prevalent gynecological malignancy. Abnormal accumulation of sterol-O-acyl transferase 1 (SOAT1) and SOAT1-mediated cholesterol ester (CE) contributes to cancer progression in various malignancies, including ovarian cancer. Therefore, it was hypothesized that similar molecular changes may occur in EC. The present study aimed to evaluate the diagnostic and/or prognostic potential of SOAT1 and CE in EC by: i) Determining SOAT1 and CE levels in plasma, peritoneal fluid and endometrial tissue from patients with EC and control subjects; ii) performing receiver operating characteristic curve analysis to determine diagnostic performance; iii) comparing SOAT1 and CE expression to that of the tumor proliferation marker Ki67; and iv) assessing the association between SOAT1 expression and survival. Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay was used to determine the levels of SOAT1 protein in tissue, plasma and peritoneal fluid. The mRNA and protein expression levels of SOAT1 and Ki67 in tissues were detected by reverse transcription-quantitative polymerase chain reaction and immunohistochemistry, respectively. CE levels were determined colorimetrically in plasma and peritoneal fluid. SOAT1-associated survival data from the cBioPortal cancer genomics database were used to assess prognostic relevance. The results revealed that SOAT1 and CE levels were significantly elevated in tumor tissue and peritoneal fluid samples collected from the EC group. By contrast, the plasma levels of SOAT1 and CE in the EC and control groups were similar. Significant positive associations between CE and SOAT1, SOAT1/CE and Ki67, and SOAT1/CE and poor overall survival in patients with EC suggested that SOAT1/CE may be associated with malignancy, aggressiveness and poor prognosis. In conclusion, SOAT1 and CE may serve as potential biomarkers for prognosis and target-specific treatment of EC.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Modelling mixed-phase clouds with the large-eddy model UCLALES–SALSA

The large-eddy model UCLALES–SALSA, with an exceptionally detailed aerosol description for both aerosol number and chemical composition, has been extended for ice and mixed-phase clouds. Comparison to a previous mixed-phase cloud model intercomparison study confirmed the accuracy of newly implemented ice microphysics. A further simulation with a heterogeneous ice nucleation scheme, in which ice-nucleating particles (INPs) are also a prognostic variable, captured the typical layered structure of Arctic mid-altitude mixed-phase cloud: a liquid layer near cloud top and ice within and below the liquid layer. In addition, the simulation showed a realistic freezing rate of droplets within the vertical cloud structure. The represented detailed sectional ice microphysics with prognostic aerosols is crucially important in reproducing mixed-phase clouds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2015

Representing northern peatland microtopography and hydrology within the Community Land Model

Predictive understanding of northern peatland hydrology is a necessary precursor to understanding the fate of massive carbon stores in these systems under the influence of present and future climate change. Current models have begun to address microtopographic controls on peatland hydrology, but none have included a prognostic calculation of peatland water table depth for a vegetated wetland, independent of prescribed regional water tables. We introduce here a new configuration of the Community Land Model (CLM) which includes a fully prognostic water table calculation for a vegetated peatland. Our structural and process changes to CLM focus on modifications needed to represent the hydrologic cycle of bogs environment with perched water tables, as well as distinct hydrologic dynamics and vegetation communities of the raised hummock and sunken hollow microtopography characteristic of peatland bogs. The modified model was parameterized and independently evaluated against observations from an ombrotrophic raised-dome bog in northern Minnesota (S1-Bog), the site for the Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Climatic and Environmental Change experiment (SPRUCE). Simulated water table levels compared well with site-level observations. The new model predicts hydrologic changes in response to planned warming at the SPRUCE site. At present, standing water is commonly observed in bog hollows after large rainfall events during the growing season, but simulations suggest a sharp decrease in water table levels due to increased evapotranspiration under the most extreme warming level, nearly eliminating the occurrence of standing water in the growing season. Simulated soil energy balance was strongly influenced by reduced winter snowpack under warming simulations, with the warming influence on soil temperature partly offset by the loss of insulating snowpack in early and late winter. Furthermore, the new model provides improved predictive capacity for seasonal hydrological dynamics in northern peatlands, and provides a useful foundation for investigation of northern peatland carbon exchange.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2011

Desert dust and anthropogenic aerosol interactions in the Community Climate System Model coupled-carbon-climate model

Coupled-carbon-climate simulations are an essential tool for predicting the impact of human activity onto the climate and biogeochemistry. Here we incorporate prognostic desert dust and anthropogenic aerosols into the CCSM3.1 coupled carbon-climate model and explore the resulting interactions with climate and biogeochemical dynamics through a series of transient anthropogenic simulations (20th and 21st centuries) and sensitivity studies. The inclusion of prognostic aerosols into this model has a small net global cooling effect on climate but does not significantly impact the globally averaged carbon cycle; we argue that this is likely to be because the CCSM3.1 model has a small climate feedback onto the carbon cycle. We propose a mechanism for including desert dust and anthropogenic aerosols into a simple carbon-climate feedback analysis to explain the results of our and previous studies. Inclusion of aerosols has statistically significant impacts on regional climate and biogeochemistry, in particular through the effects on the ocean nitrogen cycle and primary productivity of altered iron inputs from desert dust deposition.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2015

Representing northern peatland microtopography and hydrology within the Community Land Model

Predictive understanding of northern peatland hydrology is a necessary precursor to understanding the fate of massive carbon stores in these systems under the influence of present and future climate change. Current models have begun to address microtopographic controls on peatland hydrology, but none have included a prognostic calculation of peatland water table depth for a vegetated wetland, independent of prescribed regional water tables. We introduce here a new configuration of the Community Land Model (CLM) which includes a fully prognostic water table calculation for a vegetated peatland. Our structural and process changes to CLM focus on modifications needed to represent the hydrologic cycle of bogs environment with perched water tables, as well as distinct hydrologic dynamics and vegetation communities of the raised hummock and sunken hollow microtopography characteristic of peatland bogs. The modified model was parameterized and independently evaluated against observations from an ombrotrophic raised-dome bog in northern Minnesota (S1-Bog), the site for the Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Climatic and Environmental Change experiment (SPRUCE). Simulated water table levels compared well with site-level observations. The new model predicts significant hydrologic changes in response to planned warming at the SPRUCE site. At present, standing water is commonly observed in bog hollows after large rainfall events during the growing season, but simulations suggest a sharp decrease in water table levels due to increased evapotranspiration under the most extreme warming level, nearly eliminating the occurrence of standing water in the growing season. Simulated soil energy balance was strongly influenced by reduced winter snowpack under warming simulations, with the warming influence on soil temperature partly offset by the loss of insulating snowpack in early and late winter. The new model provides improved predictive capacity for seasonal hydrological dynamics in northern peatlands, and provides a useful foundation for investigation of northern peatland carbon exchange.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2015

Parameterizing deep convection using the assumed probability density function method

Due to their coarse horizontal resolution, present-day climate models must parameterize deep convection. This paper presents single-column simulations of deep convection using a probability density function (PDF) parameterization. The PDF parameterization predicts the PDF of subgrid variability of turbulence, clouds, and hydrometeors. That variability is interfaced to a prognostic microphysics scheme using a Monte Carlo sampling method.The PDF parameterization is used to simulate tropical deep convection, the transition from shallow to deep convection over land, and mid-latitude deep convection.These parameterized single-column simulations are compared with 3-D reference simulations. The agreement is satisfactory except when the convective forcing is weak. The same PDF parameterization is also used to simulate shallow cumulus and stratocumulus layers. The PDF method is sufficiently general to adequately simulate these five deep, shallow, and stratiform cloud cases with a single equation set. This raises hopes that it may be possible in the future, with further refinements at coarse time step and grid spacing, to parameterize all cloud types in a large-scale model in a unified way.

Storer, R. L.↗

NASA NTRS1973

Recent results from satellite beacon measurements

The techniques are reviewed for measuring ionospheric electron content, the most important parameter in the study of transionospheric propagation. Data collected since 1964 have yielded a synoptic description of the behavior of the electron content in midlatitudes. Empirical relationships between the level of solar activity and the electron content were developed permitting the prognostication of the electron content values. Construction of such prognostication schemes was stimulated by current efforts to create accurate satellite borne navigation systems. Gravity waves propagating in the thermosphere leave a signature in the electron content records. Studies of such records have allowed the identification of the position of the gravity wave source, and its radiation pattern. A one-to-one relationship between these waves and polar substorms was revealed. Electron content measurements were used to monitor the protonosphere with good time resolution. Protonospheric storms were observed with this technique. Slab thickness data obtained from content measurements were used to determine the neutral air temperature in the thermosphere.

Darosa, A. V.↗

NASA NTRS1974

Recent results from satellite beacon measurements

A review is made of the techniques for measuring ionospheric electron content, the most important parameter in the study of transionospheric propagation. Data collected since 1964 have yielded a synoptic description of the behavior of the electron content in mid-latitudes. Empirical relationships between the level of solar activity and the electron content have been developed permitting the prognostication of the electron content values. Marked discrepancies between prognostication and observation which occur during ionospheric storms are being studied to identify their causes. Electron content bite-outs during solar eclipses fall off with distance from totality more rapidly than simple theory predicts suggesting the action of eclipse induced neutral winds. Gravity waves propagating in the thermosphere leave a signature in the electron content records. Studies of such records have allowed the identification of the position of the gravity wave source, and its radiation pattern.

Da Rosa, A. V.↗

NASA NTRS1976

Wind laws for shockless initialization

A system of diagnostic equations for the velocity field, or wind laws, was derived for each of a number of models of large-scale atmospheric flow. The derivation in each case is mathematically exact and does not involve any physical assumptions not already present in the prognostic equations, such as nondivergence or vanishing of derivatives of the divergence. Therefore, initial states computed by solving these diagnostic equations should be compatible with the type of motion described by the prognostic equations of the model and should not generate initialization shocks when inserted into the model. Numerical solutions of the diagnostic system corresponding to a barotropic model are exhibited. Some problems concerning the possibility of implementing such a system in operational numerical weather prediction are discussed.

Ghil, M.↗

NASA NTRS1980

The January and July performance of the OSU two-level atmospheric general circulation model

A modified version of the two-level atmospheric general circulation model has been developed and employed in the simulation of January and July global climates. The overall physical and numerical formation of the Oregon State University model is the same as that described by Gates and Schlesinger (1977), but in the new version water vapor at the upper level has been made a prognostic variable, the parameterizations of cumulus convection, large-scale condensation and evaporation, clouds, and radiative transfer have been changed, the surface snow mass and ground temperature have been made prognostic variables, and the treatment of the surface boundary layer has been revised. It is found that the model simulates most features of the large-scale distributions of observed January and July climate more accurately than before.

Schlesinger, M. E.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Analyzing Martian winds and tracer concentrations using Mars Observer data

During the courses of a day, the Mars Observer spacecraft will acquire globally distributed profiles of the martian atmosphere. It is highly desirable that this data be assembled into synoptic weather maps (complete specifications of the atmospheric pressure, temperature, and winds at a given time), which can in turn be used as starting points in the study of many meteorological phenomena. Unfortunately, the special nature of the Mars Observer data presents several challenges above and beyond the usual difficult problem of data initialization. Mars Observer atmospheric data will consist almost exclusively of asynoptic vertical profiles of temperatures (or radiances) and pressures, whereas winds are generally in balance with horizontal gradients of these quantities (which will not be observed). It will therefore be necessary to resort to dynamical models to analyze the wind fields. As a rule, data assimilation into atmospheric models can result in the generation of spurious gravity waves, so special steps must be taken to suppress these. In addition, the asynoptic nature of the data will require a four-dimensional (space and time) data assimilation scheme. The problem is to find a full set of meteorological fields (winds and temperatures) such that, when marched forward in time in the model, they achieve a best fit (in the weighted least-squares sense) to the data. The proposed solution is to develop a model especially for the Mars Observer data assimilation problem. Gravity waves are filtered from the model by eliminating all divergence terms from the prognostic divergence equation. This leaves a diagnostic gradient wind relation between the rotational wind and the temperature field. The divergent wind is diagnosed as the wind required to maintain the gradient wind balance in the presence of the diabatic heating. The primitive equations of atmospheric dynamics (with three principal dependent variables) are thus reduced to a simpler system with a single prognostic equation for temperature - the variable that will be best observed. (This balance system was apparently first derived by Charney as a first-order Rossby number expansion of the equations of motion). Experience with a full primitive equation model of the martian atmosphere indicates that a further simplification is possible: at least for short-term integrations, the model can be linearized about the zonally symmetric basic state.

Houben, Howard C.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Global Analysis, Interpretation and Modelling: An Earth Systems Modelling Program

The Goal of the GAIM is: To advance the study of the coupled dynamics of the Earth system using as tools both data and models; to develop a strategy for the rapid development, evaluation, and application of comprehensive prognostic models of the Global Biogeochemical Subsystem which could eventually be linked with models of the Physical-Climate Subsystem; to propose, promote, and facilitate experiments with existing models or by linking subcomponent models, especially those associated with IGBP Core Projects and with WCRP efforts. Such experiments would be focused upon resolving interface issues and questions associated with developing an understanding of the prognostic behavior of key processes; to clarify key scientific issues facing the development of Global Biogeochemical Models and the coupling of these models to General Circulation Models; to assist the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) process by conducting timely studies that focus upon elucidating important unresolved scientific issues associated with the changing biogeochemical cycles of the planet and upon the role of the biosphere in the physical-climate subsystem, particularly its role in the global hydrological cycle; and to advise the SC-IGBP on progress in developing comprehensive Global Biogeochemical Models and to maintain scientific liaison with the WCRP Steering Group on Global Climate Modelling.

Moore, Berrien, III↗

NASA NTRS1998

An Operational Computational Terminal Area PBL Prediction System

There are two fundamental goals of this research project which are listed here in terms of priority, i.e., a primary and secondary goal. The first and primary goal is to develop a prognostic system which could satisfy the operational weather prediction requirements of the meteorological subsystem within the Aircraft Vortex Spacing System (AVOSS), i.e., an operational computational Terminal Area PBL Prediction System (TAPPS). The second goal is to perform indepth diagnostic analyses of the meteorological conditions during the special wake vortex deployments at Memphis and Dallas during August 95 and September 97, respectively. These two goals are interdependent because a thorough understanding of the atmospheric dynamical processes which produced the unique meteorology during the Memphis and Dallas deployments will help us design a prognostic system for the planetary boundary layer (PBL) which could be utilized to support the meteorological subsystem within AVOSS. Concerning the primary goal, TAPPS Stage 2 was tested on the Memphis data and is about to be tested on the Dallas case studies. Furthermore benchmark tests have been undertaken to select the appropriate platform to run TAPPS in real time in support of the DFW AVOSS system. In addition, a technique to improve the initial data over the region surrounding Dallas was also tested and modified for potential operational use in TAPPS. The secondary goal involved several sensitivity simulations and comparisons to Memphis observational data sets in an effort to diagnose what specific atmospheric phenomena where occurring which may have impacted the dynamics of atmospheric wake vortices.

Lin, Yuh-Lang↗