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All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2019

Identification of RR Lyrae stars in multiband, sparsely-sampled data from the Dark Energy Survey using template fitting and Random Forest classification

Many studies have shown that RR Lyrae variable stars (RRL) are powerful stellar tracers of Galactic halo structure and satellite galaxies. The Dark Energy Survey (DES), with its deep and wide coverage (g ~ 23.5 mag in a single exposure; over 5000 deg2) provides a rich opportunity to search for substructures out to the edge of the Milky Way halo. However, the sparse and unevenly sampled multiband light curves from the DES wide-field survey (a median of four observations in each of grizY over the first three years) pose a challenge for traditional techniques used to detect RRL. We present an empirically motivated and computationally efficient template-fitting method to identify these variable stars using three years of DES data. When tested on DES light curves of previously classified objects in SDSS stripe 82, our algorithm recovers 89% of RRL periods to within 1% of their true value with 85% purity and 76% completeness. Using this method, we identify 5783 RRL candidates, ~28% of which are previously undiscovered. This method will be useful for identifying RRL in other sparse multiband data sets.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Multifrequency Models of Black Hole Photon Rings from Low-luminosity Accretion Disks

Images of black holes encode both astrophysical and gravitational properties. Detecting highly lensed features in images can differentiate between these two effects. We present an accretion disk emission model coupled to the Adaptive Analytical Ray Tracing (AART) code that allows a fast parameter space exploration of black hole photon ring images produced from synchrotron emission from 10 to 670 GHz. As an application, we systematically study several disk models and compute their total flux density, average radii, and optical depth. The model parameters are chosen around fiducial values calibrated to general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic (GRMHD) simulations and observations of M87*. For the parameter space studied, we characterize the transition between optically thin and thick regimes and the frequency at which the first photon ring is observable. Our results highlight the need for careful definitions of photon ring radius in the image domain, as in certain models the highly lensed photon ring is dimmer than the direct emission at certain angles. We find that at low frequencies the ring radii are set by the electron temperature, while at higher frequencies the magnetic field strength plays a more significant role, demonstrating how multifrequency analysis can also be used to infer plasma parameters. Lastly, we show how our implementation can qualitatively reproduce multifrequency black hole images from GRMHD simulations when adding time variability to our disk model through Gaussian random fields. This approach provides a new method for simulating observations from the Event Horizon Telescope and the proposed Black Hole Explorer space mission.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1973

A guidance and navigation system for continuous low thrust vehicles

A midcourse guidance and navigation system for continuous low thrust vehicles is described. A set of orbit elements, known as the equinoctial elements, are selected as the state variables. The uncertainties are modelled statistically by random vector and stochastic processes. The motion of the vehicle and the measurements are described by nonlinear stochastic differential and difference equations respectively. A minimum time nominal trajectory is defined and the equation of motion and the measurement equation are linearized about this nominal trajectory. An exponential cost criterion is constructed and a linear feedback guidance law is derived to control the thrusting direction of the engine. Using this guidance law, the vehicle will fly in a trajectory neighboring the nominal trajectory. The extended Kalman filter is used for state estimation. Finally a short mission using this system is simulated. The results indicate that this system is very efficient for short missions.

Tse, C. J. C.↗

NASA NTRS1975

Effects of time-shifted data on flight determined stability and control derivatives

Flight data were shifted in time by various increments to assess the effects of time shifts on estimates of stability and control derivatives produced by a maximum likelihood estimation method. Derivatives could be extracted from flight data with the maximum likelihood estimation method even if there was a considerable time shift in the data. Time shifts degraded the estimates of the derivatives, but the degradation was in a consistent rather than a random pattern. Time shifts in the control variables caused the most degradation, and the lateral-directional rotary derivatives were affected the most by time shifts in any variable.

Steers, S. T.↗

NASA NTRS1976

Operations research investigations of satellite power stations

A systems model reflecting the design concepts of Satellite Power Stations (SPS) was developed. The model is of sufficient scope to include the interrelationships of the following major design parameters: the transportation to and between orbits; assembly of the SPS; and maintenance of the SPS. The systems model is composed of a set of equations that are nonlinear with respect to the system parameters and decision variables. The model determines a figure of merit from which alternative concepts concerning transportation, assembly, and maintenance of satellite power stations are studied. A hybrid optimization model was developed to optimize the system's decision variables. The optimization model consists of a random search procedure and the optimal-steepest descent method. A FORTRAN computer program was developed to enable the user to optimize nonlinear functions using the model. Specifically, the computer program was used to optimize Satellite Power Station system components.

Cole, J. W.↗

NASA NTRS1978

Large Area Crop Inventory Experiment (LACIE). Feasibility of assessing crop condition and yield from LANDSAT data

The author has identified the following significant results. Yield modelling for crop production estimation derived a means of predicting the within-a-year yield and the year-to-year variability of yield over some fixed or randomly located unit of area. Preliminary studies indicated that the requirements for interpreting LANDSAT data for yield may be sufficiently similar to those of signature extension that it is feasible to investigate the automated estimation of production. The concept of an advanced yield model consisting of both spectral and meteorological components was endorsed. Rationale for using meteorological parameters originated from known between season and near harvest dynamics in crop environmental-condition-yield relationships.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1990

Studies of solar type stars

Satellite observations show a change of 0.1 percent in solar irradiance over the past decade. The question arises as to whether larger changes in irradiance may occur over century time scales. Researchers approached this question by looking at changes in surface magnetism, since the satellite observations also show that irradiance and surface magnetism are correlated. To obtain information on possible variations in surface magnetism over century-long intervals, researchers looked at records of surface magnetism spanning up to 20 years for a sample of 74 stars of solar type, i.e., of similar age and mass to the sun. The histories of these stars, observed in random phases of their long-term variability, give a snapshot at any one time of the behavior of a solar-type star over long periods of time. Evidence on Maunder Minimum phases and levels of magnetic activity in these solar-type stars are compared with information on solar magnetism. Implications for solar irradiance changes are discussed.

Baliunas, Sallie↗

NASA NTRS1997

Cellular effects of individual high-linear energy transfer particles and implications for tissue response at low doses

The energy deposition patterns produced by the radiation environment in space can be quite different from those in conventional radiation environments. Furthermore, conventional radiation biological experiments, using randomly distributed particle tracks, cannot access some variables which may be important in determining the health effects of irradiation. Controlled microbeam irradiation provides the means to investigate the effects and unique energy deposition patterns and cell environment for a variety of end points.

Non-NASA Center↗

DOE OSTI2019

Data-Driven Preemptive Voltage Monitoring and Control Using Probabilistic Voltage Sensitivities: Preprint

Increased penetration of distributed variable re-newable generation may cause random voltage fluctuations and violations at multiple nodes. Traditional methods of voltage control typically involve reactionary responses of capacitor banks, tap changers, and recently even smart inverters. But due to the lack of foresight in voltage violations, these controls are ineffective to completely mitigate the issue. Therefore, new methods of predicting voltage violations subject to random power injection changes in the distribution network is needed, which can be used to guide optimal and dynamic methods of voltage control. This work lays the foundation for such preemptive voltage monitoring and control by proposing an analytical and sensor data-driven voltage sensitivity analysis method. Driven by stochastic data and forecasts, the method can be used to develop probabilistic voltage sensitivities and consequently to predict system nodes with high likelihood of voltage limit violations. The effectiveness of this method is tested on IEEE 69 node distribution system integrated with distributed solar. The results demonstrate the proposed method's ability to successfully predict nodes with high probability of voltage violations for a specific time series simulation. The results also demonstrate the ability to guide timely power injection control actions to mitigate future voltage violations.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2020

The frequency of extreme X-ray variability for radio-quiet quasars

ABSTRACT We analyse 1598 serendipitous Chandra X-ray observations of 462 radio-quiet quasars to constrain the frequency of extreme amplitude X-ray variability that is intrinsic to the quasar corona and innermost accretion flow. The quasars in this investigation are all spectroscopically confirmed, optically bright (mi ≤ 20.2), and contain no identifiable broad absorption lines in their optical/ultraviolet spectra. This sample includes quasars spanning z ≈ 0.1–4 and probes X-ray variability on time-scales of up to ≈12 rest-frame years. Variability amplitudes are computed between every epoch of observation for each quasar and are analysed as a function of time-scale and luminosity. The tail-heavy distributions of variability amplitudes at all time-scales indicate that extreme X-ray variations are driven by an additional physical mechanism and not just typical random fluctuations of the coronal emission. Similarly, extreme X-ray variations of low-luminosity quasars seem to be driven by an additional physical mechanism, whereas high-luminosity quasars seem more consistent with random fluctuations. The amplitude at which an X-ray variability event can be considered extreme is quantified for different time-scales and luminosities. Extreme X-ray variations occur more frequently at long time-scales (Δt ≳ 300 d) than at shorter time-scales and in low-luminosity quasars compared to high-luminosity quasars over a similar time-scale. A binomial analysis indicates that extreme intrinsic X-ray variations are rare, with a maximum occurrence rate of $\lt 2.4{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ of observations. Finally, we present X-ray variability and basic optical emission-line properties of three archival quasars that have been newly discovered to exhibit extreme X-ray variability.

Timlin, III, John D.↗

DOE OSTI2014

Effects of the scatter in sunspot group tilt angles on the large-scale magnetic field at the solar surface

The tilt angles of sunspot groups represent the poloidal field source in Babcock-Leighton-type models of the solar dynamo and are crucial for the build-up and reversals of the polar fields in surface flux transport (SFT) simulations. The evolution of the polar field is a consequence of Hale's polarity rules, together with the tilt angle distribution which has a systematic component (Joy's law) and a random component (tilt-angle scatter). We determine the scatter using the observed tilt angle data and study the effects of this scatter on the evolution of the solar surface field using SFT simulations with flux input based upon the recorded sunspot groups. The tilt angle scatter is described in our simulations by a random component according to the observed distributions for different ranges of sunspot group size (total umbral area). By performing simulations with a number of different realizations of the scatter we study the effect of the tilt angle scatter on the global magnetic field, especially on the evolution of the axial dipole moment. The average axial dipole moment at the end of cycle 17 (a medium-amplitude cycle) from our simulations was 2.73 G. The tilt angle scatter leads to an uncertainty of 0.78 G (standard deviation). We also considered cycle 14 (a weak cycle) and cycle 19 (a strong cycle) and show that the standard deviation of the axial dipole moment is similar for all three cycles. The uncertainty mainly results from the big sunspot groups which emerge near the equator. In the framework of Babcock-Leighton dynamo models, the tilt angle scatter therefore constitutes a significant random factor in the cycle-to-cycle amplitude variability, which strongly limits the predictability of solar activity.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1998

Advanced Water Vapor Lidar Detection System

In the present water vapor lidar system, the detected signal is sent over long cables to a waveform digitizer in a CAMAC crate. This has the disadvantage of transmitting analog signals for a relatively long distance, which is subjected to pickup noise, leading to a decrease in the signal to noise ratio. Generally, errors in the measurement of water vapor with the DIAL method arise from both random and systematic sources. Systematic errors in DIAL measurements are caused by both atmospheric and instrumentation effects. The selection of the on-line alexandrite laser with a narrow linewidth, suitable intensity and high spectral purity, and its operation at the center of the water vapor lines, ensures minimum influence in the DIAL measurement that are caused by the laser spectral distribution and avoid system overloads. Random errors are caused by noise in the detected signal. Variability of the photon statistics in the lidar return signal, noise resulting from detector dark current, and noise in the background signal are the main sources of random error. This type of error can be minimized by maximizing the signal to noise ratio. The increase in the signal to noise ratio can be achieved by several ways. One way is to increase the laser pulse energy, by increasing its amplitude or the pulse repetition rate. Another way, is to use a detector system with higher quantum efficiency and lower noise, on the other hand, the selection of a narrow band optical filter that rejects most of the day background light and retains high optical efficiency is an important issue. Following acquisition of the lidar data, we minimize random errors in the DIAL measurement by averaging the data, but this will result in the reduction of the vertical and horizontal resolutions. Thus, a trade off is necessary to achieve a balance between the spatial resolution and the measurement precision. Therefore, the main goal of this research effort is to increase the signal to noise ratio by a factor of 10 over the current system, using a newly evaluated, very low noise avalanche photo diode detector and constructing a 10 MHz waveform digitizer which will replace the current CAMAC system.

Elsayed-Ali, Hani↗

DOE OSTI2024

Probabilistic Context Neighborhood model for lattices

Here we present the Probabilistic Context Neighborhood model designed for two-dimensional lattices as a variation of a Markov random field assuming discrete values. In this model, the neighborhood structure has a fixed geometry but a variable order, depending on the neighbors’ values. Our model extends the Probabilistic Context Tree model, originally applicable to one-dimensional space. It retains advantageous properties, such as representing the dependence neighborhood structure as a graph in a tree format, facilitating an understanding of model complexity. Furthermore, we adapt the algorithm used to estimate the Probabilistic Context Tree to estimate the parameters of the proposed model. We illustrate the accuracy of our estimation methodology through simulation studies. Additionally, we apply the Probabilistic Context Neighborhood model to spatial real-world data, showcasing its practical utility.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Evaluation of residual gas fraction estimation methods for cycle-to-cycle combustion variability analysis and modeling

Cycle-to-cycle combustion variability in spark-ignition engines during normal operation is mainly caused by random perturbations of the in-cylinder conditions such as the flow velocity field, homogeneity of the air-fuel distribution, spark energy discharge, and turbulence intensity of the flame front. Such perturbations translate into the variability of the energy released observed at the end of the combustion process. During normal operating conditions, the cycle-to-cycle variability (CCV) of the energy release behaves as random uncorrelated noise. However, during diluted combustion, in either the form of exhaust gas recirculation (EGR) or excess air (lean operation), the CCV tends to increase as dilution increases. Moreover, when the ignition limit is reached at high dilution levels, the combustion CCV is exacerbated by sporadic occurrences of incomplete combustion events, and the uncorrelation assumption no longer holds. The low or null energy released by partial burns and misfires has an impact on the following combustion event due to the residual gas that carries burned and unburned gases, which contributes to the deterministic coupling between engine cycles. Many residual gas fraction estimation methods, however, only address the nominal case where complete combustion occurs and combustion events are uncorrelated. Here we evaluate the efficacy of such methods on capturing the effects of partial burns and misfires on the residual gas estimate for high-EGR operation. The advantages and disadvantages of each method are discussed based on their ability to generate cycle-to-cycle estimates. Finally, a comparison between the different estimation techniques is presented based on their usefulness for control-oriented modeling.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2023

A Predictor-Corrector Strategy for Adaptivity in Dynamical Low-Rank Approximations

Here, in this paper, we present a predictor-corrector strategy for constructing rank-adaptive, dynamical low-rank approximations (DLRAs) of matrix-valued ODE systems. The strategy is a compromise between (i) low-rank step-truncation approaches that alternately evolve and compress solutions and (ii) strict DLRA approaches that augment the low-rank manifold using subspaces generated locally in time by the DLRA integrator. The strategy is based on an analysis of the error between a forward temporal update into the ambient full-rank space, which is typically computed in a step-truncation approach before recompressing, and the standard DLRA update, which is forced to live in a low-rank manifold. We use this error, without requiring its full-rank representation, to correct the DLRA solution. A key ingredient for maintaining a low-rank representation of the error is a randomized SVD, which introduces some degree of stochastic variability into the implementation. The strategy is formulated and implemented in the context of discontinuous Galerkin spatial discretizations of PDEs and applied to several versions of DLRA methods found in the literature as well as a new variant. Numerical experiments comparing the predictor-corrector strategy to other methods demonstrate robustness to overcome shortcomings of step truncation or strict DLRA approaches: The former may require more memory than is strictly needed, while the latter may miss transients solution features that cannot be recovered. The effect of randomization, tolerances, and other implementation parameters is also explored.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2017

Modeling variability in porescale multiphase flow experiments

Microfluidic devices and porescale numerical models are commonly used to study multiphase flow in biological, geological, and engineered porous materials. In this work, we perform a set of drainage and imbibition experiments in six identical microfluidic cells to study the reproducibility of multiphase flow experiments. We observe significant variations in the experimental results, which are smaller during the drainage stage and larger during the imbibition stage. We demonstrate that these variations are due to sub-porescale geometry differences in microcells (because of manufacturing defects) and variations in the boundary condition (i.e.,fluctuations in the injection rate inherent to syringe pumps). Computational simulations are conducted using commercial software STAR-CCM+, both with constant and randomly varying injection rate. Stochastic simulations are able to capture variability in the experiments associated with the varying pump injection rate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2019

The ASAS-SN catalogue of variable stars – IV. Periodic variables in the APOGEE survey

ABSTRACT We explore the synergy between photometric and spectroscopic surveys by searching for periodic variable stars among the targets observed by the Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment (APOGEE) using photometry from the All-Sky Automated Survey for Supernovae (ASAS-SN). We identified 1924 periodic variables among more than $258\, 000$ APOGEE targets; 465 are new discoveries. We homogeneously classified 430 eclipsing and ellipsoidal binaries, 139 classical pulsators (Cepheids, RR Lyrae, and δ Scuti), 719 long-period variables (pulsating red giants), and 636 rotational variables. The search was performed using both visual inspection and machine learning techniques. The light curves were also modelled with the damped random walk stochastic process. We find that the median [Fe/H] of variable objects is lower by 0.3 dex than that of the overall APOGEE sample. Eclipsing binaries and ellipsoidal variables are shifted to a lower median [Fe/H] by 0.2 dex. Eclipsing binaries and rotational variables exhibit significantly broader spectral lines than the rest of the sample. We make ASAS-SN light curves for all the APOGEE stars publicly available and provide parameters for the variable objects.

Pawlak, Michał↗

DOE OSTI2015

SU-E-J-176: Characterization of Inter-Fraction Breast Variability and the Implications On Delivered Dose

Purpose: To systematically characterize inter-fraction breast variability and determine implications on delivered dose. Methods: Weekly port films were used to characterize breast setup variability. Five evenly spaced representative positions across the contour of each breast were chosen on the electronic port film in reference to graticule, and window and level was set such that the skin surface of the breast was visible. Measurements from the skin surface to treatment field edge were taken on each port film at each position and compared to the planning DRR, quantifying the variability. The systematic measurement technique was repeated for all port films for 20 recently treated breast cancer patients. Measured setup variability for each patient was modeled as a normal distribution. The distribution was randomly sampled from the model and applied as isocentric shifts in the treatment planning computer, representing setup variability for each fraction. Dose was calculated for each shifted fraction and summed to obtain DVHs and BEDs that modeled the dose with daily setup variability. Patients were categorized in to relevant groupings that were chosen to investigate the rigorousness of immobilization types, treatment techniques, and inherent anatomical difficulties. Mean position differences and dosimetric differences were evaluated between planned and delivered doses. Results: The setup variability was found to follow a normal distribution with mean position differences between the DRR and port film between − 8.6–3.5 mm with sigma range of 5.3–9.8 mm. Setup position was not found to be significantly different than zero. The mean seroma or whole breast PTV dosimetric difference, calculated as BED, ranged from a −0.23 to +1.13Gy. Conclusion: A systematic technique to quantify and model setup variability was used to calculate the dose in 20 breast cancer patients including variable setup. No statistically significant PTV or OAR BED differences were found between immobilization, treatment or anatomical differences investigated.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗