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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 739 records · Page 41
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Carbon starvation is absent regardless of season of burn in Liquidambar styraciflua L.

In the Southeastern United States, the function and stability of pine ecosystems depends on frequent low intensity fires. One of the critical effects of frequent fire is the inhibition of hardwood competition by removing above-ground stems (top-kill). Previous long-term studies have correlated early growing season burns with higher understory mortality when compared to dormant season burns. Seasonal differences in mortality from insufficient carbon reserves in roots after leaf flush were posited as the mechanism but this was never explicitly tested. In this experiment, we burned two-year-old pot-grown sweetgums (Liquidambar styraciflua L.) in the dormant season (February), growing season (May), and compared their physiological responses to plants that were unburned. By the end of the first post-burn growing season, mortality was higher after the dormant season burn than the growing season burn and unburned trees had nearly twice the mass of either the burned treatments. Tissue starch concentrations were similar across all treatments highlighting the resiliency of sweetgum carbon stocks to recover from above-ground stem removal regardless of season. We showed the critical importance of top-killing stems regardless of season of burn. Our findings further suggest that dormant season fires can be more lethal to young sweetgum, possibly due to susceptibility of tender new shoots to freezing damage.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

One-step transformation of biomass to fuel precursors using a bi-functional combination of Pd/C and water tolerant Lewis acid

Direct one-pot transformation of lignocellulosic biomass has been developed as an effective and sustainable strategy to produce fuel blend stocks and high value chemical building blocks. In this wok, a bi-functional catalyst system consisting of palladium supported on carbon (Pd/C) and metal triflates (i.e., Sm(OTf) 3 , La(OTf) 3 , and Cu(OTf) 2 ) were shown to promote the biomass liquefaction in both hot-compressed water and supercritical ethanol medium, converting fir wood into oxygenated compounds. We report the highest bio-oil yield from hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL) was 10.47 wt% over Pd/C whereas the highest bio-oil yield of 49.71 wt% was achieved from supercritical ethanol liquefaction (SCEL) over the bi-functional catalyst system of Pd/C and La(OTf) 3 . Higher heating values, carbon recovered values and boiling point distributions were further determined for elucidating the physical properties of the bio-oils. Gas chromatography mass spectrometry (GC–MS) analysis of the bio-oils revealed the chemical composition of the bio-oils. Substituted phenols and cyclopentenone/cyclopentanone type compounds consisted of more than 60 area% of the total products from HTL, whereas phenol and esters represented the major products from SCEL. The major reaction pathways are proposed based on the GC–MS results, which include depolymerizaton, isomerization, dehydration, condensation, and hydrogenation.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Soil organic matter is principally root derived in an Ultisol under oak forest

To a large degree, the sources and stability of soil organic carbon remain poorly constrained. A clear understanding of links among the components of the soil C cycle is hampered by the complexity of the system as well as challenges associated with partitioning bulk soil C into meaningful fractions. A large accidental 14 CO 2 release at the Oak Ridge Reservation in Tennessee, USA provided a strong label pulse into adjacent, well-studied oak forests, resulting in highly elevated Δ 14 C values in leaf litter (~1000‰) and roots (~260–450‰). A four-year manipulative study was conducted to determine the relative contribution of litter versus roots to the bulk mineral soil C pool, as well as to free light, occluded light and heavy fractions. The heavy fraction was further split into fractions with densities of 1.7–2.4 g cm –3 and >2.4 g cm –3 to test the homogeneity of the mineral-associated fraction of C. Substantial concentrations of label were detected in all soil fractions within a year of the 14 CO 2 release, indicating rapid incorporation of newly fixed photosynthates in all fractions of soil organic C, regardless of differences in stability inferred by previous work. This rapid incorporation of label occurred only in treatments where roots were labeled, indicating that roots are the major source of inputs to mineral soil C stocks at these sites. Separation of the heavy fraction into subfractions of intermediate (1.7–2.4 g cm –3 ) and high (>2.4 g cm –3 ) density indicated that both subfractions incorporated label at similar rates, despite significant differences in degree of microbial processing. In general, the rate of label incorporation suggested a much faster turnover for all fractions than indicated by natural radiocarbon abundance values. This study suggests that within each soil fraction there are portions of slow-cycling and fast-cycling materials, and the determination of an average turnover time or mean age is dependent on experimental approach. The rapid incorporation of label into all fractions within a year regardless of inferred stability implies a high degree of heterogeneity in all fractions regardless of how finely the soils are partitioned. Further refinement of the nature and drivers of this heterogeneity could yield important insights into the soil C cycle.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Composition and persistence of soil organic matter along eroding and depositional transects in buried vs. modern soil layers: A case of the Brady paleosol at Wauneta, Nebraska

Paleosols form when soils are buried through deposition by aeolian, colluvial, alluvial or other processes. Burial of former topsoil isolates soil organic matter (SOM) from surface conditions, allowing carbon to accumulate and potentially remain stable for millennia. In this study, SOM composition, distribution, and persistence were analyzed in the Brady Soil of Nebraska, USA to compare SOM spatial variability in modern and buried soils, as well as the impact of erosional exposure on SOM stability. The Brady Soil, formed as a surface soil during the Pleistocene-Holocene transition and now a paleosol buried up to 6 m deep (or more) by loess deposition during the Holocene, was sampled along burial (up to 5.8 m depth) and erosional (up to 1.8 m depth) transects to compare SOM dynamics in different geomorphic settings. Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy (FTIR) and Fourier Transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (FTICR-MS) were used to analyze SOM composition, while δ 13 C isotope analyses identified SOM sources and radiocarbon values were used to estimate turnover rates. Results confirmed a vegetation shift from C3 to C4 plants after Brady Soil formation, reflecting warming climatic conditions. Increasing SOM age and decreasing δ 13 C and δ 15 N values with depth indicated slowing of decomposition rate in buried soils. Higher pH in the Brady Soil suggested greater base cation content, supporting SOM stabilization through organo-mineral associations and aggregate formation. However, exposure of the Brady Soil due to surface erosion caused faster SOM turnover. This result suggested susceptibility of buried SOM to losses via decomposition upon erosional exposure, possibly accelerated by priming in response to modern SOM inputs. These findings highlight the potential loss of carbon stocks in buried soils under future climate change, as shifts in soil physicochemical properties may destabilize long-preserved SOM.

Environmental sciences↗
DOE OSTI2026

Forest aboveground biomass estimation through integration of sentinel-2 and PALSAR-2 time series: assessing models trained on GEDI and field inventory benchmarks

Accurate and spatially explicit forest Aboveground Biomass (AGB) mapping through remote sensing is critical for quantifying terrestrial carbon stocks and informing effective forest management strategies. However, AGB estimation in dense forests with complex terrain remains challenging due to satellite sensor signal saturation problem (saturation issue occurs in high biomass forests), structural complexity, and limited ground truth for calibration. This study presents a novel framework that integrates multi-temporal Sentinel-2 optical imagery, ALOS PALSAR-2 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data, and topographic variables with explainable Machine Learning to map AGB across mountainous forests within subtropical and temperate oceanic climate zones of Mexico. We evaluate the effects of temporal granularity and sensor synergy by comparing multiple temporal inputs and sensor configurations (Sentinel-2, PALSAR-2, and their fusion), and assess model performance using two reference datasets: NASA GEDI LiDAR-derived biomass and Mexico’s National Forest and Soil Inventory (INFyS). Our results showed that models trained on INFyS consistently outperformed those trained on GEDI, highlighting limitations in GEDI’s reliability in biomass estimates within this study region. Furthermore, the integration of Sentinel-2 and PALSAR-2 provided improved predictions compared to single-sensor models, particularly when combined with temporally explicit yearly statistics. The best-performing model, which was trained on INFyS data, and considered both Sentinel-2 and PALSAR-2 yearly statistics, as well as topographic variables, achieved an R2 of 0.64, RMSE of 51.10 Mg/ha, and relative RMSE (rRMSE) of 58.69%. Explainable ML analysis identified Sentinel-2 spectral indices and topographic features as key predictors, while PALSAR-2 metrics provided complementary information, partially mitigating saturation effects in high-biomass areas. Specifically, integrating both sensors substantially improved AGB estimation in high biomass forest (≥200 Mg/ha), yielding 98% gains over optical-only model, with resulting estimates exceeding GEDI L4B by 29% and ESA-CCI-BIOMASS by 174%. Terrain-stratified analysis indicated close agreement with GEDI in low-slope areas, with increasing divergence as slope steepness increased, while estimates remained consistently higher than ESA-CCI-BIOMASS across all slope classes. The proposed approach advances multi-sensor fusion and temporal feature engineering for AGB mapping using open-access satellite datasets, providing a scalable and reproducible framework for annual biomass monitoring in topographically complex mountainous forests. The resulting 25 m resolution biomass product has the potential to provide spatially detailed information for forest monitoring and may support applications in carbon accounting and forest management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Testing and signal identification for two-sample high-dimensional covariances via multi-level thresholding

The paper considers testing and signal identification for covariance matrices from two populations of marginally sub-Gaussian distributed. A multi-level thresholding procedure is proposed for testing the equality of two high-dimensional covariance matrices, which is designed to detect sparse and faint differences between the covariances. A novel -statistic composition is developed to establish the asymptotic distribution of the thresholding statistics in conjunction with the matrix blocking and the coupling techniques. It is shown that the proposed test is more powerful than the existing tests in detecting sparse and weak signals in covariances. Multiple testing procedures are constructed to discover different covariances and the sub-groups of variables with different covariance structures between the two populations. The proposed procedures are based on the multi-level thresholding test, which are able to control the false discovery proportion () with high power. Simulation experiments and a case study on the returns of the S&P 500 stocks before and after the COVID-19 pandemic are conducted to demonstrate and compare the utilities of the proposed methods.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Thermal performance and energy consumption validation of an occupied local government office building outfitted with ceiling tile phase change materials

Buildings present an opportunity for energy conservation and the modulation of peak energy demand through controlled Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning (HVAC) energy use. The administrative and office building stock in the United States holds potential to achieve energy and demand savings through retrofits such as insulation, weatherization, and thermal energy storage. Specifically, there is a need to validate passive phase change material (PCM) applications in full scale in aging administrative buildings in the US to evaluate the energy benefits. Aim of this study was to conduct a whole building level thermal and energy validation of an operational building and explore an alternative method for evaluating energy efficiency. To accomplish this, the study employed PCMs in the drop ceiling and carry out an energy audit and on-site measurement of HVAC systems' energy demand and consumption. A full-scale EnergyPlus energy model, modeled by the authors, served as a baseline for evaluation. The results show that calibrated model's envelope temperature measures fall within the accepted errors. HVAC energy simulation results also fall within the accepted errors for monthly and hourly pre- and post- PCM retrofit electricity and natural gas data. The novelty of this study is that it employees energy scales per Heating Degree Hour and Cooling Degree Hour, in contrast to the commonly used Heating Degree Days and Cooling Degree Days as reported in the literature to analyze energy savings. These findings underscore the pivotal role of a calibrated model in assessing the efficacy of a singular energy measure, like a PCM-retrofitted ceiling, in an occupied office building.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Energy innovation in the US buildings sector: Setting the stage and mapping the future

Jared Langevin is a staff scientist at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, where he leads modeling of US buildings sector innovation and its implications for energy demand, consumer costs, and the power grid. Eric Wilson is a senior research engineer in the Building Technologies and Sciences Center at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). Much of his 15-year career at NREL has revolved around modeling and analysis of the US building stock. Jared and Eric co-led the development of a National Blueprint for buildings sector innovation while serving as advisors to the US Department of Energy’s Deputy Assistant Secretary for Buildings and Industry.

Langevin, Jared↗
DOE OSTI2020

Partitioning of tramp elements Cu and Si in a Ni-based superalloy and their effect on creep properties

An alloy's processing history, including melting, remelting or the choice of stock material, affects its purity and eventually involves tramp element pickup or retention. Herein, variants of a novel Ni-based superalloy were manufactured with different levels of purity. The so-called low purity alloys contained 0.138 wt. % Cu and 0.019 wt. % Si while the Cu and Si levels were below x-ray fluorescence (XRF) detection limits of 0.003 and 0.010 wt. %, respectively, in the high purity ingots. Atom-probe tomography (APT) was carried out and revealed Si partitioning at the following interfaces: grain boundaries, MC carbide/γ, M 3 B 2 boride/$γ$ and M 3 B 2 boride/$γ$'. Copper was found to primarily segregate to the $γ$' precipitates. An average of 2.4 × decrease in creep life and 4.3 × decrease in creep ductility was measured in the low purity alloys, which was attributed to the embrittlement caused by Si segregation to grain boundaries. Furthermore, the positive effect of B on the creep properties was mitigated by the presence of Si. Thermodynamic predictions for the matrix and γ' precipitate compositions represented the trends observed experimentally although the extent of preferential partitioning lacks accuracy. Monte Carlo simulations were performed to describe the partitioning of Cu and Si atoms to either $γ$ or $γ$' phases.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Distinct Assembly Processes and Microbial Communities Constrain Soil Organic Carbon Formation

Soil stores more carbon (C) than all vegetation and the atmosphere combined. Soil C stocks are broadly shaped by temperature, moisture, soil physical characteristics, vegetation, and microbial-mediated metabolic processes. The efficiency with which microorganisms use soil C regulates the balance between C storage in soil and the atmosphere. In this review, we discuss how microbial physiology and community assembly processes determine microbial growth rate and efficiency and, in turn, soil organic C cycling through the lens of community ecology. We introduce a conceptual framework cataloging life history (i.e., growth rate, resource acquisition, and stress tolerance) and assembly traits (i.e., competition, facilitation, and dispersal) that correspond with different growth efficiencies. We also compare how dominant mycorrhizal fungal type affects growth efficiency. We propose that further development and inclusion of specific community parameters in microbial-explicit Earth system models are needed for accurately predicting soil organic C responses to global change.

carbon sequestration↗
DOE OSTI2024

Paths to circularity for plastics in the United States

In 2019, the United States consumed over 57 million metric tons (MMT) of plastic with less than 7% recovered for reuse. This study provides an updated material flow analysis at national and regional scales for all durable and single-use plastics in the United States. From this material flow analysis, we develop a series of alternative future national plastic flow scenarios that envision a scale-up of recycling technologies, incorporating technical limitations and sorting infrastructure constraints. The results suggest that a maximum of 68% (24 MMT) of plastic waste could be diverted from landfills by scaling up existing commercial recycling technologies. Based on the current technological landscape, reaching near-zero waste is only possible if processes that are operating at pilot and laboratory scales can be effectively scaled and coupled with improved sorting infrastructure. Through these scenarios with increased recycling, the availability of postconsumer resin stocks could increase by 22–43 MMT.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evaluating Multimodel Ensemble Seasonal Climate Forecasts on Rangeland Plant Production in the California Annual Grassland

Seasonal precipitation and temperature directly affect total plant production in the California Annual Grassland (CAG). Technological advances have resulted in skillful seasonal climate forecasts (i.e., significant correlations between actual and forecasted climate), which could be input into plant production models to inform stocking and other rangeland management decisions. This study presents a procedure for forecasting plant production in the CAG ecosystem to predict annual plant production for grazing, restoration, or other rangeland management practices using a combination of historical gridMET climate data and seasonal hindcasts (i.e., retrospective forecasts, from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble program). Further, the results of this study first confirmed high forecast skill, throughout the growing season at all sites. We also identified skillful plant production forecasts across most of the growing season at two sites and in three of the seven forecasting months at one study site. Forecasting climate and end-of-year plant production across the growing season at three CAG sites allowed us to identify the places and times in the growing season when forecasting might be most helpful in informing management decisions. Integrating plant production forecasting into rangeland management practices could significantly improve rangeland management outcomes. These procedures provide a user guide for creating plant production forecasts for any given area of interest and may be applicable across a wide range of other agricultural and rangeland management systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Experimental and data-driven characterization of window-induced air leakage in residential buildings

Windows contributes up to 40% of envelope heat losses and around 9% of total building energy consumption due to air leakage. In the U.S., 48 million homes still use single-pane windows. Although the U.S. has an estimated 1.4 billion windows in its building stock and about 24 million windows are installed annually, only around 29 million individual window replacements (∼2%) occur each year. To address this gap, this study generates empirical evidence by (1) evaluating the contribution of windows to whole-building air leakage in 20 residential buildings using blower door tests before and after window replacement and (2) assessing whether building and window characteristics influence the measured change. Most simulation studies assume that replacing windows not only lowers the U-factor but also reduces air leakage by 10–20%. However, this assumption lacks empirical validation, highlighting the need for experimental analysis of air leakage specifically associated with windows. Using blower door tests in accordance with ASTM E779–19, the results indicated an average reduction in air infiltration of 6.1% within the range of 0.5–19.30% across all buildings and no significant correlations were found between air leakage improvements and any building/window characteristics. This research aims to help homeowners, and energy modelers to provide empirical data on importance of upgrading to more energy-efficient windows, supporting energy-efficient building standards.

Air leakage↗
DOE OSTI2021

Climate and atmospheric deposition drive the inter-annual variability and long-term trend of dissolved organic carbon flux in the conterminous United States

The lateral flux of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) from soils to inland waters and ultimately to the ocean represents a fundamental component of the global carbon cycle. To estimate the DOC flux, we developed an empirical terrestrial-aquatic DOC fluxes model (TAF-DOC). TAF-DOC incorporates various environmental factors (e.g., meteorology, sulfur, and nitrogen deposition) that to-date have not been comprehensively considered or well-represented in existing modeling frameworks. TAF-DOC was applied to estimate spatial-temporal patterns of DOC flux and potential fates across the conterminous United States during the 1985 to 2018 time period. Our results suggest that TAF-DOC successfully characterized spatial-temporal of DOC flux. As expected, the interannual pattern of DOC flux was strongly regulated by precipitation, but the long-term trend was significantly influenced by the rate of atmospheric wet sulfur deposition. From 1985 to 2018, TAF-DOC estimated DOC loading from terrestrial to aquatic ecosystems in the conterminous United States to be 33.5 ± 2.2 TgC per year, which was roughly 0.39–0.49% of total soil organic carbon stock estimates. The dominant fate of terrestrially-derived DOC was delivery to the coastal ocean in riverine export (41%), with another 21% buried in sediment and the remaining 12.8 ± 0.4 TgC per year (38%) returned to the atmosphere through outgassing from inland waters. Finally, assuming the quantities of DOC sediment burial and export to the ocean as an annual sink of terrestrially-derived carbon, budget inventories and models that do not account for DOC flux in the conterminous United States will underestimate the net annual carbon sink by as much as 5.5–6.4%.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Estimating induced land use change emissions for sustainable aviation biofuel pathways

Sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs) are expected to play an essential role in achieving the aviation industries’ goal of carbon-neutral growth. However, producing biomass-based SAFs may induce changes in global land use and the associated carbon stock. The induced land use change (ILUC) emissions, as a part of the full life-cycle emissions for SAF pathways, will affect whether and to what extent SAFs reduce emissions compared with petroleum-based jet fuels. Here, we estimate the ILUC emission intensity for seventeen SAF pathways considered by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), covering five ASTM-certified technologies, nine biomass-based feedstocks, and four geographical regions. We introduce the SAF pathways into a well-established computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, GTAP-BIO, and its coupled emission accounting model, AEZ-EF, to study economy-wide implications of SAF production and estimate ILUC emissions intensity for each pathway. The estimated SAF ILUC emission intensities, using a 25-year amortization period, range from -58.5 g CO 2 e MJ -1 for the USA miscanthus alcohol (isobutanol)-to-jet (ATJ) pathway to 34.6 g CO 2 e MJ -1 for the Malaysia & Indonesia palm oil Hydrotreated Esters of Fatty Acids (HEFA) pathway. Notably, the vegetable oil pathways tend to have higher ILUC emission intensities due to their linkage to palm expansion and peatland oxidation in Southeast Asia. The cellulosic pathways studied provide negative ILUC emissions, mainly driven by the high carbon sequestrations in crop biomass and soil. Using the core life-cycle emissions established by ICAO, we show that fifteen of the assessed pathways have a lower full life-cycle emission intensity than petroleum-based jet fuels (89 g CO 2 e MJ -1 ), offering promising options to reduce aviation emissions.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Dynamics of organic matter molecular composition under aerobic decomposition and their response to the nitrogen addition in grassland soils

Grassland soils store a substantial proportion of the global soil carbon (C) stock. The transformation of C in grassland soils with respect to chemical composition and persistence strongly regulate the predicted terrestrial-atmosphere C flux in global C biogeochemical cycling models. In addition, increasing atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition alters C chemistry in grassland soils. However, there remains controversy about the importance of mineralogical versus biochemical preservation of soil C, as well as uncertainty regarding how grassland soil C chemistry responds to elevated N. This study used grassland soils with diverse soil organic matter (SOM) chemistries in an 8-month aerobic incubation experiment to evaluate whether the chemical composition of SOM converged across sites over time, and how SOM persistence responded to the N addition. This study demonstrates that over the course of incubation, the richness of labile compounds decreased in soils with less ferrihydrite content, whereas labile compounds were more persistent in ferrihydrite rich soils. In contrast, we found that the richness of more complex compounds increased over the incubation in most sites, independent of soil mineralogy. Moreover, we demonstrate the extent to which the diverse chemical composition of SOM converged among sites in response to microbial decomposition. N fertilization decreased soil respiration and inhibited the convergence of molecular composition across ecosystems by altering N demand for microbial metabolism and chemical interactions between minerals and organic molecules. This study provides original evidence that the decomposition and metabolism of labile organic molecules were largely regulated by soil mineralogy (physicochemical preservation), while the metabolism of more complex organic molecules was controlled by substrate complexity (biochemical preservation) independent to mineral-organic interactions. This study advanced our understanding of the dynamic biogeochemical cycling of C by unveiling that N addition dampened C respiration and diminished the convergence of SOM chemistry across diverse grassland ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Urban building energy modeling (UBEM) tools: A state-of-the-art review of bottom-up physics-based approaches

Regulations corroborate the importance of retrofitting existing building stocks or constructing new energy-efficient districts. There is, thus, a need for modeling tools to evaluate energy scenarios to better manage and design cities, and numerous methodologies and tools have been developed. Among them, Urban Building Energy Modelling (UBEM) tools allow the energy simulation of buildings at large scales. Choosing an appropriate UBEM tool, balancing the level of complexity, accuracy, usability, and computing needs, remains a challenge for users. The review focuses on the main bottom-up physics-based UBEM tools, comparing them from a user-oriented perspective. Five categories are used: (i) the required inputs, (ii) the reported outputs, (iii) the exploited workflow, (iv) the applicability of each tool, and (v) the potential users. Moreover, a critical discussion is proposed, focusing on interests and trends in research and development. The results highlighted major differences between UBEM tools that must be considered to choose the proper one for an application. Finally, barriers of adoption of UBEM tools include the needs of a standardized ontology, a common three-dimensional city model, a standard procedure to collect data, and a standard set of test cases. This feeds into future development of UBEM tools to support cities’ sustainability goals.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

Nexus of electrification and energy efficiency retrofit of commercial buildings at the district scale

Rapid electrification of buildings at the district scale is needed for cities to achieve climate change mitigation goals. However, most electrification studies focus on either the single building level or the city/region building stock level, and depend on the slow and uncertain process of requesting personally identifiable customer energy usage data from utilities. To answer a key question facing local policymakers: “Where can electrification proceed at scale without first upgrading the grid?” this study aims to quantify and inform building electrification impacts at the district scale using detailed building energy modeling and based on public records datasets. We explore how energy efficiency retrofits can help mitigate increased peak electric demand, and quantify impacts to energy use and carbon emissions. Building energy models of a baseline, and scenarios of simple electrification, energy retrofits, and electrification in combination with retrofits were created and simulated for 54 commercial buildings in two contiguous districts of San Francisco. A simple electrification scenario increased annual electricity consumption but reduced annual site energy usage by 15% to 17%, mainly due to replacing inefficient gas furnaces and boilers with more efficient heat pumps. Peak demand increased 7.4% for Fisherman's Wharf (e.g. within the capacity of the existing power grid), while the Design District showed a marginal decrease. Annual carbon emissions were reduced by 46% and 37%. Combining electrification with efficiency upgrades reduced peak demand by 26% and 40%, and annual carbon emissions by 63% and 64% for the two districts. Furthermore, these results indicate that impacts of electrification depend on the mix of building uses within a district, and coupling electrification with energy efficiency upgrades is an effective strategy to decarbonize buildings while maintaining or reducing the peak electric demand.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗