Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Dynamic State Estimation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 757 records · Page 42
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2019

Real-Time UAV Trajectory Prediction for Safety Monitoring in Low-Altitude Airspace

The rising number of small unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) expected in the next decade will enable a new series of commercial, service, and military operations in low altitude airspace as well as above densely populated areas. These operations may include on-demand delivery, medical transportation services, law enforcement operations, traffic surveillance and many more. Such unprecedented scenarios create the need for robust, efficient ways to monitor the UAV state in time to guarantee safety and mitigate contingencies throughout the operations. This work proposes a generalized monitoring and prediction methodology that utilizes realtime measurements of an autonomous UAV following a series of way-points. Two different methods, based on sinusoidal acceleration profiles and high-order splines, are utilized to generate the predicted path. The monitoring approach includes dynamic trajectory re-planning in the event of unexpected detour or hovering of the UAV during flight. It can be further extended to different vehicle types, to quantify uncertainty affecting the state variables, e.g., aerodynamic and other environmental effects, and can also be implemented to prognosticate safety-critical metrics which depend on the estimated flight path and required thrust. The proposed framework is implemented on a simplified, scalable UAV modeling and control system traversing 3D trajectories. Results presented include examples of real-time predictions of the UAV trajectories during flight and a critical analysis of the proposed scenarios under uncertainty constraints.

UAV trajectory prognosis↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Aeroelastic Simulation of Transonic Truss-Braced Wing Aircraft for Flight Dynamic Stability Analysis

This paper presents aeroelastic simulation of the Mach 0.8 Transonic Truss-Braced Wing (TTBW) aeroelastic model using CFD solver FUN3D for the flight dynamic and control stability analysis. A jig twist optimization is performed to obtain a flight optimized jig twist for the flexible Mach 0.8 TTBW model. The developed aeroelastic model steady-state stability derivatives with respect to the angle of attack, angle of sideslip, and airspeed are calculated with perturbations in the angle of attack, angle of sideslip, and Mach number, respectively. A series of unsteady simulations is conducted for the developed aeroelastic model in pitch oscillation at various reduced frequencies. The dynamic stability derivatives are estimated using a frequency domain estimation method. The control derivatives of the elevator, rudder, and ailerons of the developed aeroelastic model are estimated for control stability analysis.

TTBW↗
DOE OSTI2025

Improving Dose Modeling With Dynamic Modeling Tools [Slides]

Utilities aiming for higher fuel enrichment for power uprates or extended operation times before refueling must conduct a new dose analysis. Current conservative dose estimation standards may cause utilities to exceed regulatory limits for proposed increased fuel enrichment. A more accurate modeling of doses from reactor accidents can lower these conservative assumptions. Prescott et al. (2022) demonstrated that the Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Linked Diagrams (EMRALD) software tool, developed at Idaho National Laboratory (INL), can be coupled with the Modular Accident Analysis Program (MAAP5) for dynamic accident analysis in reactor plants. EMRALD forms models of potential accident scenarios, while MAAP5 simulates the accident progression and dose consequences. By integrating these software tools with utility-specific data, a more precise estimation of dose consequences from plant accidents can be achieved. Preliminary findings indicate that EMRALD provides accurate mean core damage frequencies for generalized accident scenarios. Future work includes expanding the model to account for plant-specific data and mitigation factors.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS2012

Carbon Consequences of Forest Disturbance and Recovery Across the Conterminous United States

Forests of North America are thought to constitute a significant long term sink for atmospheric carbon. The United States Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program has developed a large data base of stock changes derived from consecutive estimates of growing stock volume in the US. These data reveal a large and relatively stable increase in forest carbon stocks over the last two decades or more. The mechanisms underlying this national increase in forest stocks may include recovery of forests from past disturbances, net increases in forest area, and growth enhancement driven by climate or fertilization by CO2 and Nitrogen. Here we estimate the forest recovery component of the observed stock changes using FIA data on the age structure of US forests and carbon stocks as a function of age. The latter are used to parameterize forest disturbance and recovery processes in a carbon cycle model. We then apply resulting disturbance/recovery dynamics to landscapes and regions based on the forest age distributions. The analysis centers on 28 representative climate settings spread about forested regions of the conterminous US. We estimate carbon fluxes for each region and propagate uncertainties in calibration data through to the predicted fluxes. The largest recovery-driven carbon sinks are found in the South central, Pacific Northwest, and Pacific Southwest regions, with spatially averaged net ecosystem productivity (NEP) of about 100 g C / square m / a driven by forest age structure. Carbon sinks from recovery in the Northeast and Northern Lake States remain moderate to large owing to the legacy of historical clearing and relatively low modern disturbance rates from harvest and fire. At the continental scale, we find a conterminous U.S. forest NEP of only 0.16 Pg C/a from age structure in 2005, or only 0.047 Pg C/a of forest stock change after accounting for fire emissions and harvest transfers. Recent estimates of NEP derived from inventory stock change, harvest, and fire data show twice the NEP sink we derive from forest age distributions. We discuss possible reasons for the discrepancies including modeling errors and the possibility of climate and/or fertilization (CO2 or N) growth enhancements.

Williams, Christopher A.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Atomistic simulations and machine learning of solute grain boundary segregation in Mg alloys at finite temperatures

Understanding solute segregation thermodynamics is the first step in investigating grain boundary (GB) properties, such as strong yttrium (Y) effects on grain growth and texture evolution in micro-scale polycrystalline magnesium (Mg) alloys. To estimate the average GB segregation behavior in low-solute-concentration Mg alloys (e.g., 2 at.% Y), a state-of-the-art spectral approach is applied based on a per-site segregation energy spectrum for Y solute atoms at zero K obtained from molecular statistics (MS) simulations of ~10 4 GB sites in Mg symmetric tilt GBs (STGBs). Although selected MS simulation results are consistent with verification by density functional theory (DFT) calculations, estimates of average segregation tendency based on the zero-K energy spectrum deviate from experimental observations. To resolve this problem, thermodynamic integration (TI) methods based on molecular dynamics (MD) simulations are used to determine the per-site segregation free energies of Y at representative GB sites, which show contributions beyond harmonic approximations can be important for certain GB sites at high temperatures. A surrogate model of per-site segregation free energy is constructed from a small set of TI data points using stacking cross-validation regressors and physics-informed descriptors. This model is applied to predict the Y segregation free energy spectra for thousands of GB sites in Mg STGBs with uncertainty quantification. Finally, the average segregation tendency predicted by the spectral approach based on the free energy spectra agrees well (within the uncertainty range) with experimental observations for micro-scale polycrystalline Mg alloys at typical thermomechanical processing temperatures (500 ~ 800 K), where thermodynamic equilibrium states are likely to be achieved due to fast diffusion.

Atomistic simulations↗
DOE OSTI2021

Projecting the likely importance of weak-interaction-driven bulk viscosity in neutron star mergers

ABSTRACT In this work, we estimate how much bulk viscosity driven by Urca processes is likely to affect the gravitational wave signal of a neutron star coalescence. In the late inspiral, we show that bulk viscosity affects the binding energy at fourth post-Newtonian order. Even though this effect is enhanced by the square of the gravitational compactness, the coefficient of bulk viscosity is likely too small to lead to observable effects in the waveform during the late inspiral, when only considering the orbital motion itself. In the post-merger, however, the characteristic time-scales and spatial scales are different, potentially leading to the opposite conclusion. We post-process data from a state-of-the-art equal-mass binary neutron star merger simulation to estimate the effects of bulk viscosity (which was not included in the simulation itself). In that scenario, we find that bulk viscosity can reach high values in regions of the merger. We compute several estimates of how much it might directly affect the global dynamics of the considered merger scenario, and find that it could become significant. Even larger effects could arise in different merger scenarios or in simulations that include non-linear effects. This assessment is reinforced by a quantitative comparison with relativistic heavy-ion collisions where such effects have been explored extensively.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Characterizing non-Markovian and coherent errors in quantum simulation

Quantum simulation of many-body systems, particularly using ultracold atoms and trapped ions, presents a unique form of quantum control—it is a direct implementation of a multi-qubit gate generated by the Hamiltonian. As a consequence, it also faces a unique challenge in terms of benchmarking, because the well-established gate benchmarking techniques are unsuitable for this form of quantum control. Here we show that the symmetries of the target many-body Hamiltonian can be used not only to benchmark but to characterize experimental errors in the quantum simulation. We use our results to develop protocols to characterize these errors, which can be implemented using state-of-the-art technology. We consider two forms of errors: (i) unitary errors arising out of systematic errors in the applied Hamiltonian and (ii) canonical non-Markovian errors arising out of random shot-to-shot fluctuations in the applied Hamiltonian. We show that the dynamics of the expectation value of the target Hamiltonian itself, which is ideally constant in time, can be used to characterize these errors. In the presence of errors, the expectation value of the target Hamiltonian shows a characteristic thermalization dynamics, when it satisfies the operator thermalization hypothesis (OTH). That is, an oscillation in the short time followed by relaxation to a steady-state value in the long time limit. We show that while the steady-state value can be used to characterize the coherent errors, the amplitude of the oscillations can be used to estimate the non-Markovian errors. We prove a sandwich theorem to establish a linear relation between the amplitude of the oscillations and the magnitude of the non-Markovian errors. Moreover, by varying the initial state, we show that the steady state values can be used to completely construct the generator of the coherent errors. Using these results, we develop two experimental protocols to characterize the unitary errors based on these results, one of which requires single-qubit addressing and the other one doesn't. We also develop a protocol to characterize non-Markovian errors. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
NASA NTRS1998

The High Stability Engine Control (HISTEC) Program: Flight Demonstration Phase

Future aircraft turbine engines, both commercial and military, must be able to accommodate expected increased levels of steady-state and dynamic engine-face distortion. The current approach of incorporating sufficient design stall margin to tolerate these increased levels of distortion would significantly reduce performance. The objective of the High Stability Engine Control (HISTEC) program is to design, develop, and flight-demonstrate an advanced, integrated engine control system that uses measurement-based estimates of distortion to enhance engine stability. The resulting distortion tolerant control reduces the required design stall margin, with a corresponding increase in performance and decrease in fuel burn. The HISTEC concept has been developed and was successfully flight demonstrated on the F-15 ACTIVE aircraft during the summer of 1997. The flight demonstration was planned and carried out in two phases, the first to show distortion estimation, and the second to show distortion accommodation. Post-flight analysis shows that the HISTEC technologies are able to successfully estimate and accommodate distortion, transiently setting the stall margin requirement on-line and in real-time. This allows the design stall margin requirement to be reduced, which in turn can be traded for significantly increased performance and/or decreased weight. Flight demonstration of the HISTEC technologies has significantly reduced the risk of transitioning the technology to tactical and commercial engines.

DeLaat, John C.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Photoneutron Production Using an Electron Linear Accelerator for Applications in Neutron Imaging

Photoneutron production is possible using an electron linear accelerator and a target capable of generating photonuclear reactions. A short pulse neutron source can be useful for neutron imaging dynamic experiments. This study is aimed at the feasibility of photoneutron production using a 20 MeV electron linear accelerator and tungsten and depleted uranium targets of various thicknesses. MCNP6 (Monte Carlo N-Particle) code will be used to develop a computational model to estimate total neutron yield, and this will be verified at the Idaho State University’s Accelerator Center. After verification of the neutron yield and energy spectra, an additional MCNP6 model will be developed to analyze the neutron imaging processes. This study will potentially prove it is possible to conduct multi-mode imaging experiments on the anticipated Scorpius electron linear accelerator at the Nevada National Security Sites.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Dominant effect of anharmonicity on the equation of state and thermal conductivity of MgO under extreme conditions

Understanding heat transfer in the earth mantle region is of great scientific interest but highly challenging due to dissimilar conditions from our daily lives. Thermal conductivity of highly pressured and thermally activated materials can be completely different from that at ambient condition. In this study we calculate the equation of state and thermal conductivity of cubic crystalline MgO, a major component of the mantle, in such an environment. It is shown that the material properties are not accurately captured unless rigorous treatment of anharmonicity of phonon vibrational motion is explicitly applied. To predict renormalized phonon dispersion relations, interatomic force constants of high-order expansion are required, especially at elevated temperature. The anharmonicity plays an increasingly substantial role for regulating volume expansion as temperature rises, because the Gibbs free energy of MgO considerably deviates from what was predicted by the quasiharmonic approximation. We find that the lattice thermal conductivity of MgO and the heat transfer of the earth's mantle are reliably estimated only when both the temperature-dependent renormalization of phonon frequencies and four-phonon scattering effects are taken into consideration. We map the characteristics at Geotherm into contour diagrams in which equilibrium volumes and the thermal conductivities are described as functions of temperature and pressure. Furthermore, the thermal conductivity values of MgO in this study are smaller than those in previous theoretical studies due to the additional incorporation of four-phonon scatterings in the calculations. Specifically, deviation between the values in previous studies and in this study becomes larger as thermodynamic variables reach those near the core-mantle boundary. For instance, thermal conductivities of 52.15 and 23.67 Wm -1 K -1 are estimated at ambient and extreme conditions (T = 4000K and P = 135 GPa), respectively.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

A novel conditional generative model for efficient ensemble forecasts of state variables in large-scale geological carbon storage

Integrating monitoring data to efficiently update reservoir pressure and CO 2 plume distribution forecasts presents a significant challenge in geological carbon storage (GCS) applications. Inverse modeling techniques are commonly used to fuse observational data and refine reservoir model parameters, thereby improving state variable forecasts. However, these techniques often rely on linear or Gaussian assumptions, which can limit their effectiveness in accurately predicting state variables. Moreover, simulating large-scale three-dimensional (3D) GCS problems is computationally expensive, making iterative runs in inverse problems prohibitive. To address these challenges, we propose a conditional generative model utilizing the score-based diffusion method for real-time 3D pressure and saturation field distribution predictions. Our approach involves solving the score function with a mini-batch-based Monte Carlo estimator to generate labeled data. This data is subsequently employed to train a fully connected neural network, enabling it to learn the conditional sample generator within a supervised learning framework. This method enables the rapid generation of a large ensemble of predictions, facilitating comprehensive uncertainty quantification of state variables. Here we applied our method to forecast the dynamic 3D distributions of pressure and saturation fields over a 30-year injection period. The statistical assessment with low root mean square error (RMSE) values demonstrates that our method can accurately predict the spatiotemporal distributions of both pressure and saturation fields. Moreover, the developed conditional generative model shows high computational efficiency by generating 100 ensemble forecasts of 3D state variables in less than 10 min. The consistency between ensemble averages and ground truth values further illustrates the model’s capability to capture state variable dynamics during the CO 2 plume injection process. Notably, the ground truth values fall within the ensemble forecasts, indicating that our uncertainty quantification effectively captures variability and potential noise in the observations. Thus, the developed conditional generative model proves to be a more efficient, accurate, and practical tool for GCS applications, facilitating timely risk analysis and informed decision-making.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Physics informed machine learning for chemistry tabulation

Modeling of turbulent combustion system requires modeling the underlying chemistry and the turbulent transport. Solving both systems simultaneously is computationally prohibitive. Instead, given the difference in scales at which the two sub-systems evolve, the two sub-systems are typically (re)solved separately. Popular approaches such as the Flamelet Generated Manifolds (FGM) use a two-step strategy where the governing reaction kinetics are pre-computed and mapped to a low-dimensional manifold, characterized by a few reaction progress variables (model reduction) and the manifold is then “looked-up” during the run-time to estimate the high-dimensional system state by the turbulent transport system. While existing works have focused on these two steps independently, in this work we show that joint learning of the progress variables and the look-up model, can yield more accurate results. Here, we build on the base formulation and implementation to include the dynamically generated Thermochemical State Variables (Lower Dimensional Dynamic Source Terms). We discuss the challenges in the implementation of this deep neural network architecture and experimentally demonstrate its superior performance.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Grid Parameters and Voltage Estimation Approach Integrating Data-Driven Converter Model

With Measurements of grid voltage and current are essential for the optimal operation of the grid protection and control (P&C) systems. Grid parameters vary through time during the faults and especially in the converter interfaced resources (CIRs) rich power grid, and thus accurate estimation is critical to avoid the mis-operation of the P&C systems. In this paper, a moving horizon estimation (MHE) as an observer is devised and applied to estimate the grid line parameters and grid voltages for protection enhancement. Due to the proprietary and confidentiality of CIRs, the proposed approach uses the black-box model to represent their dynamics. Leveraging the easily accessible measurements of output current from the black-box model of CIR and voltage at the point of common coupling, the proposed method estimates the grid impedance and grid voltage during normal and faulty operating conditions. The performance shows that the optimization-based observer was able to closely observe the accurate states and parameters, which can be utilized by the P&C systems.

Subedi, Sunil↗
DOE OSTI2025

Trapping and imaging dynamic battery nanointerfaces via electrified cryo-EM

The electrified interface between a liquid and a solid underpins diverse phenomena, from ion-transfer during battery operation to action potentials enabling biological communication. However, conventional tools are blind to the nanoscale dynamics of this metastable interface. Here, we leverage electrified cryo–electron microscopy (eCryo-EM), a technique that rapidly freezes and kinetically traps these dynamic, nonequilibrium states during battery operation for nanoscale characterization. Collective snapshots of the electrified interface at controlled time intervals quantifies early-stage growth kinetics of the solid electrolyte interphase (SEI), a passivation film that governs electron and ion transport. Unexpectedly, the diffusivity of charged species of the two SEI films with differing chemistry and performance are estimated to be within 10% of the other, indicated by the slope of their diffusion-limited SEI growth regimes. Instead, the slope of the reaction-limited SEI growth regimes differs by a factor of 3, suggesting that lowered reactivity of the high-performance electrolyte is largely responsible for its high coulombic efficiency.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2021

NFD Methodology Report

The NetFlow Dynamics (NFD) model was developed for estimating the availability of a commodity supplied by a national- or regional-scale infrastructure following unexpected disruption of one or more of its components. The large scope of the disruptions of interest produce changes in availability lasting days to weeks. Consequently, the model does not resolve daily variations in system state and does not include the long-term processes that cause infrastructures to evolve as assets are added and removed according to owners ’planning decisions. NFD simulates fluid flow, including petroleum and other incompressible fluids, as well as natural gas and other compressible fluids, through pipeline networks characterized by limits on transmission capacity and storage. It was designed to enable efficient exploration of possible transmission system responses to large-scale disruptions lasting for days or longer. The model formulation reflects constraints on transmission and storage capacity imposed by the physical system assets. Those capacity limits are input parameters and are not derived from more basic system properties such as pipeline diameters and compressor power. A system’s response to a large disruption is controlled by operational decisions as well as damage to physical assets. The NFD model formulation allows users to efficiently consider alternative scenarios about the way remaining capacity might be used so that the analysis result appropriately reflects uncertainties about operator response.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Emerging mobile lidar technology to study boundary layer winds influenced by operating turbines

The development of a microjoule-class pulsed Doppler lidar and deployment of this compact system on mobile platforms such as aircraft, ships, or trucks have opened a new opportunity to characterize the dynamics of complex mesoscale wind flows. The PickUp-based Mobile Atmospheric Sounder (PUMAS) truck-based lidar system was recently used during the American Wake Experiment (AWAKEN) to assess the general structure of boundary layer (BL) wind and turbulence around wind turbines in central Oklahoma. Wind speed profiles averaged over PUMAS transects influenced by the operating turbines (waked flow) show a 1–2 m s −1 reduction compared to mean undisturbed (free flow) wind speed profiles. Spatial variability in wind speed was observed in time–height cross-sections at different distances from turbines. The wind speeds were about 9–12 m s −1 at 6 km distance compared to 5–7 m s −1 at the transects near the turbines. The PUMAS dataset from AWAKEN demonstrated the capability of the mobile Doppler lidar system to document spatial variability in wind flows at different distances from wind turbines and obtain quantitative estimates of wind speed reduction in the waked flow. The high-frequency, simultaneous measurements of the horizontal and vertical winds provide a new approach for characterizing dynamic processes critical for wind farm wake analyses.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1977

Lunar gravity - A long-term Keplerian rate method

Nearside tracking data from Apollo subsatellites and Lunar Orbiter 5 are used to construct a model of the farside lunar gravity field. An indirect method of calculating the average effect of all the gravity anomalies which affect spacecraft orbits is reduced to a linear estimation problem by eliminating the integration of spacecraft dynamics. Doppler frequency shifts between the lunar satellite and earth-based tracking station are used to measure the line of sight velocity component between the orbiter and the tracker; gravity determination is then performed in a weighted least squares estimator which employs the orbital rates as data and formulates the normal equations using the associated Keplerian state. Simulations performed demonstrate that farside gravity features can be economically determined by use of gravity estimates obtained from long-period models of nearside orbiting tracks.

Ferrari, A. J.↗