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At least 757 records · Page 42

Failure prediction and estimation of failure parameters

Machine-learning methods and apparatus are disclosed to determine frictional state or other parameters in an earthquake zone or other failing medium, using acoustic emission, seismic waves, or other detectable indicators of microscopic processes. Predictions of future failures are demonstrated in different regimes. A classifier is trained using time series of acoustic emission data along with historic data of frictional state or failure events. In disclosed examples, random forests and gradient boost trees are used, and grid-search or EGO procedures are used for hyperparameter tuning. Once trained, the classifier can be applied to testing or live data in order to assess a frictional state, assess seismic hazard, or make predictions regarding a future failure event. The technology has been developed in a double direct shear apparatus, but can be widely applied to seismic faults, other terrestrial failures, or failures in man-made structures. Variations are disclosed.

Johnson, Paul Allan↗

A Machine Learning Approach to Quantitative Analysis of Enamel Microstructure from Scanning Electron Microscopy Images

Dental enamel, the outermost tissue of mammalian teeth, must withstand a lifetime of wear and cyclic contact. To meet this demand, enamel possesses a combination of high hardness and resistance to fracture, properties that are typically mutually exclusive. The impressive damage tolerance has been attributed largely to decussation of the enamel rods, the principal unit of its microstructure. As such, enamel is inspiring the design of next‐generation structural materials. However, quantitative descriptions of the decussated enamel rod microstructure remain limited due to challenges encountered in applying computed tomography and in acquiring quality images appropriate for traditional digital processing methods. Here, a machine learning segmentation method is applied to images of the enamel obtained using scanning electron microscopy to support quantitative analysis of the microstructure. A pretrained convolutional neural network is used to expand the input training image dataset to allow the training of a random forest classifier, which ultimately segments the image with a very small training set ( n = 3 images). A validation of this segmentation method is presented, in addition to its application to calculate relevant microstructural parameters for images of tooth enamel from selected mammalian species. The methodology applied here is equally applicable to other hard tissues.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Canopy reflectance modeling in a tropical wooded grassland

Geometric/optical canopy reflectance modeling and spatial/spectral pattern recognition is used to study the form and structure of savanna in West Africa. An invertible plant canopy reflectance model is tested for its ability to estimate the amount of woody vegetation from remotely sensed data in areas of sparsely wooded grassland. Dry woodlands and wooded grasslands, commonly referred to as savannas, are important ecologically and economically in Africa, and cover approximately forty percent of the continent by some estimates. The Sahel and Sudan savannas make up the important and sensitive transition zone between the tropical forests and the arid Sahara region. The depletion of woody cover, used for fodder and fuel in these regions, has become a very severe problem for the people living there. LANDSAT Thematic Mapper (TM) data is used to stratify woodland and wooded grassland into areas of relatively homogeneous canopy cover, and then an invertible forest canopy reflectance model is applied to estimate directly the height and spacing of the trees in the stands. Because height and spacing are proportional to biomass in some cases, a successful application of the segmentation/modeling techniques will allow direct estimation of tree biomass, as well as cover density, over significant areas of these valuable and sensitive ecosystems. The model being tested in sites in two different bioclimatic zones in Mali, West Africa, will be used for testing the canopy model. Sudanian zone crop/woodland test sites were located in the Region of Segou, Mali.

Simonett, David↗

NASA’s NextGen Remote Sensing Instruments Have Arrived: Data Products For Studying Disease Vectors

Remote sensing can be used to measure, evaluate or estimate both the environment (state functions) and interfaces (processfunctions) defining vector habitats. The products of remote sensing can be integrated directly into the epidemiological equationsto significantly enhance our understanding of disease vector’s life cycles and habitats. The next generation of NASA’s remotesensing instruments which have become recently operational will provide a significant enhancement in our ability to studydisease vector’s life cycles and habitats. These instruments are on the International Space Station (ISS) and includeECOSTRESS, DESIS, and GEDI. ECOSTRESS is a 5 channel, thermal IR instrument with 70 m resolution and approximately1-5 day repeat cycle of day/night pairs. DESIS jointly developed by German Aerospace Center and Teledyne Brown Engineeringis a hyperspectral sensor system of 235 channels and 30 m resolution. DESIS data is only being acquired on demand. GEDI is ahigh-resolution laser ranger used for observing Earth’s forests and topography. NASA’s current ISS instrument configuration provides measurements of the critical environmental measures of environmentalstate functions important to vector & disease life cycles. Remote sensing data provide a spatial context and time series oflandscape scale process functions represented by land use mapping and measurements of ecological functions. Global publichealth is entering a new information age through the use of spatial models of disease vector/host ecologies driven by the use ofremotely sensed data to measure environmental and structural factors critical in determining disease vector habitats. In 2018, NASA initiated a new study for the Surface Biology and Geology (SBG) Designated Observable, identified in the 2018National Academies’ Decadal Survey entitled, “Thriving on Our Changing Planet: A Decadal Strategy for Earth Observationfrom Space.” (https://www.nap.edu/catalog/24938/thriving-on-our-changing-planet-a-decadal-strategy-for-earth) . The SBG isplanned to collect global remote sensing measurements using a hyperspectral spectrometer and multispectral thermal data. Thesedata sets will provide a significant enhancement in our ability to study disease vector’s life cycles and habitats globally. The 3sensors on the ISS provide precursor data to prepare the community for the application of future SBG data toward diseasestudies.

Disease Vectors↗

Winter roosting ecology of tricolored bats ( Perimyotis subflavus ) in trees and bridges

Abstract Tricolored bats (Perimyotis subflavus) that roost in subterranean hibernacula have experienced precipitous declines from white-nose syndrome (WNS); however, understudied populations also use during winter non-subterranean roosts such as tree cavities, bridges, and foliage. Our objectives were to determine winter roost use by tricolored bats in an area devoid of subterranean roosts, determine roost microclimates to relate them to growth requirements of the fungal causal agent of WNS, and determine habitat factors influencing winter tree selection. From November to March 2017–2019, we used radiotelemetry to track 15 bats to their day roosts in the upper Coastal Plain of South Carolina and recorded microclimates in accessible tree cavities and bridges. We also characterized habitat and tree characteristics of 24 used trees and 153 random, available trees and used discrete choice models to determine selection. Roost structures included I-beam bridges, cavities in live trees, and foliage. Bridges were warmer and less humid than cavities. Roost temperatures often were amenable to fungal growth (< 19.5°C) but fluctuated widely depending on ambient temperatures. Bats used bridges on colder days (8.7°C ± 5.0 SD) and trees on warmer days (11.3°C ± 5.4). Bats selected low-decay trees closer to streams in areas with high canopy closure and cavity abundance. Bats also appeared to favor hardwood forests and avoid pine forests. Our results suggest that access to multiple roost microclimates might be important for tricolored bats during winter, and forest management practices that retain live trees near streams and foster cavity formation in hardwood forests likely will benefit this species. Our results also suggest tricolored bats using bridge and tree roosts might be less susceptible to WNS than bats using subterranean hibernaculum roosts. Thus, forests in areas without subterranean hibernacula in the southeastern United States that support bats during winter might represent important refugia from WNS for multiple species.

Zoology↗

Canopy reflectance modeling in a tropical wooded grassland

Geometric/optical canopy reflectance modeling and spatial/spectral pattern recognition are used to study the form and structure of savanna in West Africa. An invertible plant canopy reflectance model is tested for its ability to estimate the amount of woody vegetation cover in areas of sparsely wooded grassland from remotely sensed data. Dry woodlands and wooded grasslands, commonly referred to as savannas, are important ecologically and economically in Africa, and cover approximately forty percent of the continent by some estimates. The Sahelian and Sudanian savanna make up the important and sensitive transition zone between the tropical forests and the arid Saharan region. The depletion of woody cover, used for fodder and fuel in these regions, has become a very severe problem for the people living there. LANDSAT Thematic Mapper (TM) data is used to stratify woodland and wooded grassland into areas of relatively homogeneous canopy cover, and then by applying an invertible forest canopy reflectance model to estimate directly the height and spacing of the trees in the stands. Since height and spacing are proportional to biomass in some cases, a successful application of the segmentation/modeling techniques will allow direct estimation of woody biomass, as well as cover density, over significant areas of these valuable and sensitive ecosystems. Sahelian savanna sites in the Gourma area of Mali being used by the NASA/GIMMS project (Global Inventory Modeling and Monitoring System, at Goddard Space Flight Center), in conjunction with CIPEA/Mali (Centre International pour l'Elevage en Afrique) will be used for testing the canopy model. The model will also be tested in a Sudanian zone crop/woodland area in the Region of Segou, Mali.

Simonett, D.↗

Self-dissimilarity as a High Dimensional Complexity Measure

For many systems characterized as "complex" the patterns exhibited on different scales differ markedly from one another. For example the biomass distribution in a human body "looks very different" depending on the scale at which one examines it. Conversely, the patterns at different scales in "simple" systems (e.g., gases, mountains, crystals) vary little from one scale to another. Accordingly, the degrees of self-dissimilarity between the patterns of a system at various scales constitute a complexity "signature" of that system. Here we present a novel quantification of self-dissimilarity. This signature can, if desired, incorporate a novel information-theoretic measure of the distance between probability distributions that we derive here. Whatever distance measure is chosen, our quantification of self-dissimilarity can be measured for many kinds of real-world data. This allows comparisons of the complexity signatures of wholly different kinds of systems (e.g., systems involving information density in a digital computer vs. species densities in a rain-forest vs. capital density in an economy, etc.). Moreover, in contrast to many other suggested complexity measures, evaluating the self-dissimilarity of a system does not require one to already have a model of the system. These facts may allow self-dissimilarity signatures to be used a s the underlying observational variables of an eventual overarching theory relating all complex systems. To illustrate self-dissimilarity we present several numerical experiments. In particular, we show that underlying structure of the logistic map is picked out by the self-dissimilarity signature of time series produced by that map

Wolpert, David H.↗

The 3D Lyman- α forest power spectrum from eBOSS DR16

We measure the three-dimensional power spectrum (P3D) of the transmitted flux in the Lyman-α (Ly α) forest using the complete extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey data release 16 (eBOSS DR16). This sample consists of ~205 000 quasar spectra in the redshift range 2 ≤ z ≤ 4 at an effective redshift z = 2.334. We propose a pair-count spectral estimator in configuration space, weighting each pair by exp( i k ∙ r), for wave vector k and pixel pair separation r, effectively measuring the anisotropic power spectrum without the need for fast Fourier transforms. This accounts for the window matrix in a tractable way, avoiding artefacts found in Fourier-transform based power spectrum estimators due to the sparse sampling transverse to the line of sight of Ly α skewers. We extensively test our pipeline on two sets of mocks: (i) idealized Gaussian random fields with a sparse sampling of Ly α skewers, and (ii) log-normal LyaCoLoRe mocks including realistic noise levels, the eBOSS survey geometry and contaminants. On eBOSS DR16 data, the Kaiser formula with a non-linear correction term obtained from hydrodynamic simulations yields a good fit to the power spectrum data in the range $(0.02 ≤ k ≤ 0.35)$ h Mpc -1 at the 1–2σ level with a covariance matrix derived from LyaCoLoRe mocks. We demonstrate a promising new approach for full-shape cosmological analyses of Ly α forest data from cosmological surveys such as eBOSS, the currently observing Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument and future surveys such as the Prime Focus Spectrograph, WEAVE-QSO, and 4MOST.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Litter Production of Oak-Hickory Forest at Missouri Ozark (MOFLUX) Site: 2003-2022

This dataset contains measurements of litter production at the second-growth upland oak-hickory forest at the Missouri Ozark AmeriFlux (MOFLUX) site. The MOFLUX site is located in the University of Missouri Baskett Forest situated in the Ozark Border Region of central Missouri, USA, and is part of the AmeriFlux network (site ID: US-MOz). During 2003, 24 circular vegetation plots (each 0.08 hectares) were established in the MOFLUX forest. The plots were situated 50 meters apart on 5 linear transects radiating out from the flux tower base in southeast, south, southwest, west, and northwest directions—there were 5 plots per transect except for the northwest one, which had only 4 due to the presence of a small pond at the terminus (Fig. 1). Litter measurements were initiated in October 2003 and continue to the present. Data through 2022 are reported in this dataset. On each plot, two subplots were established for the collection of litter. Subplots were setup using a stratified random design to ensure the collectors were not immediately adjacent to one another. Litter collectors were usually emptied at monthly intervals, or less during the autumn leaf drop. Samples were dried to constant mass and then sorted before determining the dry mass of leaf, vegetative and woody litter. These litter data have been valuable in modeling efforts to examine the impacts of intensifying moisture extremes (i.e., moisture excess and deficit conditions) on soil carbon cycling. More recent data will be added periodically with no changes to previously released data or the format and structure of the data file. This dataset contains one data file in comma separate (.csv) format. Additional metadata are provided: one data dictionary and a file-level metadata file in comma separate (.csv) format and a user guide in PDF (*.pdf) format.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Discrimination of Hexane Isomers by Temperature Swing Adsorption in a Rigid Aluminum Metal–Organic Framework

The efficient separation of alkane isomers with similar physicochemical properties remains a persistent challenge for the petrochemical industry. Adsorptive separation using metal− organic frameworks (MOFs) offers an energy-efficient alternative to conventional distillation. Herein, we report temperature swing discrimination of hexane isomers with different degrees of branching using MIL-120, a rigid aluminum pyromellitate-based MOF. MIL-120 features uniform one-dimensional channels with an aperture of ∼5.5 Å. At 30 °C, it selectively adsorbs linear and monobranched hexanes while excluding the dibranched isomer. Upon heating to 120 °C, both mono- and dibranched isomers are completely excluded, whereas linear hexane remains strongly adsorbed. Breakthrough experiments validate the temperature swing separation performance. Adsorption heat analysis combined with ab initio calculations provides a quantitative measure of distinct differences in adsorption enthalpies, binding energies, and diffusion barriers responsible for the observed separation efficiency, highlighting the potential of this MOF for efficient separation of alkane isomers via temperature swing adsorption.

Adsorption↗

The Role of Snowmelt and Subsurface Heterogeneity in Headwater Hydrology of a Mountainous Catchment in Colorado: A Model‐Data Integration Approach

Mountainous headwater streams are sustained by both snowmelt‐driven streamflow and groundwater discharge in the Upper Colorado River Basin. However, predicting headwater stream discharge magnitude and peak flow timing is challenging in mountainous terrains, where snowmelt rates vary with vegetation type and elevation, and heterogeneous subsurface physical properties influence groundwater storage and its release. We used a model‐data integration approach to investigate the roles of snowmelt and subsurface structure in stream discharge and groundwater level. We ran an ensemble of 100 integrated surface‐subsurface hydrologic models for a mountainous headwater catchment near Crested Butte, Colorado, USA. We also evaluated and calibrated these models against observed data sets, including snow depth measurements using distributed temperature probes, stream discharge, and groundwater levels. Calibration with multiple data sources using neural density estimators has further constrained uncertainty in subsurface properties and snowmelt rates. Results indicated that observed slower snowmelt rates in evergreen forests delayed the peak flow and baseflow onset. In upstream areas with lower subsurface permeability, water was stored within the subsurface but was not released as interflow or shallow groundwater flow, and thereby not contributing to downstream streamflow during recession limb periods. Double peaks in groundwater occurred in areas with spatial subsurface heterogeneity, in our case due to the contrast between granodiorite and Mancos shale. These process‐based insights into groundwater and snowmelt dynamics in mountainous headwaters will help improve predictions of headwater hydrology.

Wang, Lijing [University of Connecticut, Storrs, C↗

CRADA Number NFE-22-09333 with Holocene Climate Corporation (CRADA Final Report:)

Holocene Climate Corporation has developed and scaled up a novel technology for Direct Air Capture (DAC) that is based on cutting-edge research initiated at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). According to the IPCC, carbon dioxide capture from the air and its sequestration are necessary to keep global temperature rise below 1.5°C by 2050. DAC is a viable and practical way to reach this goal. DAC can happen anywhere in the world, takes up a fraction of the land of forests, and along with the sequestration of CO 2 , provides permanent and verifiable removal of carbon from the atmosphere. The proposed project aimed to facilitate knowledge transfer from ORNL to Holocene focusing on (i) the synthesis of the ORNL patented material which builds the cornerstone of the DAC technology, and (ii) required analytical methods needed to conduct crystallization bench-scale experimentation and technology development. Furthermore, ORNL conducted research centered around CO 2 absorption using an air-liquid contacting structure with an aqueous amino acid solution. The achievements under this project comprise successful knowledge transfer from ORNL to the entire Holocene team to jump-start their internal R&D and technological development activities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Improving the Fire Weather Index System for Peatlands Using Peat-Specific Hydrological Input Data

The Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) system, even though originally developed and calibrated for an upland Jack pine forest, is used globally to estimate fire danger for any fire environment. However, for some environments, such as peatlands, the applicability of the FWI in its current form, is often questioned. In this study, we replaced the original moisture codes of the FWI with hydrological estimates resulting from the assimilation of satellite-based L-band passive microwave observations into a peatland-specific land surface model. In a conservative approach that maintains the integrity of the original FWI structure, the distributions of the hydrological estimates were first matched to those of the corresponding original moisture codes before replacement. The resulting adapted FWI, hereafter called FWIpeat, was evaluated using satellite-based information on fire presence over boreal peatlands from 2010 through 2018. Adapting the FWI with model- and satellite-based hydrological information was found to be beneficial in estimating fire danger, especially when replacing the deeper moisture codes of the FWI. For late-season fires, further adaptations of the fine fuel moisture code show even more improvement due to the fact that late-season fires are more hydrologically driven. The proposed FWIpeat should enable improved monitoring of fire risk in boreal peatlands.

Canadian Fire Weather Index↗

Machine Learning for Predicting Team Functioning in HERA Missions

Team functioning is integral to success in future long term space exploration missions. Proactively detecting declines in team functioning can mitigate conflict and ensure mission success. This project developed a speech-based artificial intelligence (AI) system that unobtrusively predicts degradation in team functioning, including performance and cohesion, in the Human Exploration Research Analog (HERA) Campaigns 4 and 5. The AI system conducted automated analysis of the prosodic (tone of voice) and linguistic (language content) components of speech, modeling interpersonal dynamics at both the turn-taking and day-wide levels. We investigated team functioning via observing structured interactions (i.e., multi-mission space exploration vehicle-extra vehicular activity [MMSEV-EVA], team interaction battery [TIB]) and unstructured interactions before the MMSEV-EVA task. We developed machine learning models to predict team functioning (objective task accuracy, self reported team efficacy and self reported team cohesion) by analyzing OpenSmile acoustic features, linguistic descriptors extracted via the linguistic inquiry and word count (LIWC) dictionary, and semantic embeddings. In the TIB, static models using logistic regression and random forests were not able to predict task accuracy, but predicted team efficacy and cohesion during both the decision making and relational tasks to a moderate level (60-70%). Majority voting on the individual turns to predict day long team efficacy further increased accuracies (70-80%). Finally, long short-term memory (LSTM) models showed the best performance across all variables (80-91%), including task performance. In the MMSEV-EVA, static models achieved an accuracy of 60% with majority voting, which increased to 80% through the incorporation of mission day as a variable, accounting for the learning effect. A key finding across both tasks was the "team-dependent" nature of these interactions; models achieved much higher accuracy when trained on prior days of the same team's data rather than attempting to generalize across entirely different teams, with even 1-2 days of prior data per team achieving 5-15% improvement over team-independent models. In addition, the incorporation of pre-task data from the same team also improves model performance, e.g., incorporating data from the decision-making task of the TIB, which preceded the relational task, improved the prediction of team efficacy and cohesion during the latter. We compared model performance when trained on machine-generated data compared to data that had been further corrected by human annotators. Overall, models trained on human-corrected data exhibited a modest improvement in performance, particularly when acoustic features were used. We found no significant correlation between word error rate (WER) and model accuracy (r(55) = -0.08, p = 0.51), but model’s accuracy was significantly higher for medium/high quality transcription (0.74 (SD = 0.48)) compared to the low-quality group (0.64 (SD = 0.36)) (t(63)=2.82, p = 0.006). Based on these, several design recommendation emerge, that could inform Standards at NASA. Models predicting team functioning should incorporate at least one to two days of historical interaction data, include brief pre-task discussions, and explicitly model temporal learning effects, especially for longer operational tasks. Minimum quality standards for automated speech-processing pipelines are needed, given the performance gains observed with manually corrected acoustic data. Finally, systems should leverage both acoustic features and language embeddings in complementary ways, with modality choices and fusion strategies tailored to mission context, task demands, and data quality requirements.

Shrivatsa Mishra↗

Machine learning reveals sequence-function relationships in family 7 glycoside hydrolases

Family 7 glycoside hydrolases (GH7) are among the principal enzymes for cellulose degradation in nature and industrially. These important enzymes are often bimodular, including a catalytic domain and carbohydrate binding module (CBM) attached via a flexible linker, and exhibit an active site that binds cello-oligomers of up to ten glucosyl moieties. GH7 cellulases consist of two major subtypes: cellobiohydrolases (CBH) and endoglucanases (EG). Despite the critical importance of GH7 enzymes, there remain gaps in our understanding of how GH7 sequence and structure relate to function. Here, we employed machine learning to gain data-driven insights into relationships between sequence, structure, and function across the GH7 family. Machine-learning models, trained only on the number of residues in the active-site loops as features, were able discriminate GH7 CBHs and EGs with up to 99% accuracy, demonstrating that the lengths of loops A4, B2, B3, and B4 strongly correlate with functional subtype across the GH7 family. Classification rules were derived such that specific residues at 42 different sequence positions each predicted the functional subtype with accuracies surpassing 87%. A random forest model trained on residues at 19 positions in the catalytic domain predicted the presence of a CBM with 89.5% accuracy. Our ML results recapitulate, as top-performing features, a substantial number of the sequence positions determined by previous experimental studies to play vital roles in GH7 activity. We surmise that the yet-to-be-explored sequence positions among the top-performing features also contribute to GH7 functional variation and may be exploited to understand and manipulate function.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Detecting air pollution stress in southern California vegetation using Landsat Thematic Mapper band data

Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) and aircraft-borne Thematic Mapper simulator (TMS) data were collected over two areas of natural vegetation in southern California exposed to gradients of pollutant dose, particularly in photochemical oxidants: the coastal sage scrub of the Santa Monica Mountains in the Los Angeles basin, and the yellow pine forests in the southern Sierra Nevada. In both situations, natural variations in canopy closure, with subsequent exposure of understory elements (e.g.,rock or soil, chaparral, grasses, and herbs), were sufficient to cause changes in spectral variation that could obscure differences due to visible foliar injury symptoms observed in the field. TM or TMS data are therefore more likely to be successful in distinguishing pollution injury from background variation when homogeneous communities with closed canopies are subjected to more severe pollution-induced structural and/or compositional change. The present study helps to define the threshold level of vegetative injury detectable by TM data.

Westman, Walter E.↗

A transportable hemispherical illumination system for making reflectance factor measurements

An artificial source of stable, hemispherical illumination has been developed to facilitate the collection of reflectance factor measurements of targets of interest in a laboratory environment. The light source consists of a 76 cm (30 in.) aluminum hemisphere which has been coated internally with barium sulfate paint. Illumination is provided by two banks of lamps, each consisting of eight 62-W quartz halogen bulbs which have tungsten filaments. An internal baffle precludes the viewing of any direct beam of light. A simple metal structure has been developed to hold the hemisphere and all peripheral equipment, such as spectrometers, radiometers, and cameras, in place during data collection. The entire setup can be easily disassembled and packed in airline approved shipping cases to facilitate transportation to remote laboratory facilities. This illumination system has been used during the past three years to collect spectral reflectance factor data of tree branch samples and seedlings in support of an on-going study to investigate the effect of acidic deposition on forest vegetation.

Williams, Darrel L.↗

On the Electrification of Pyrocumulus Clouds

The electrification (or lack thereof) of pyrocumulus clouds is examined for several different wildfires that occurred during 2012‐2013. For example, pyrocumulus clouds above three Colorado wildfires (Hewlett Gulch, High Park, and Waldo Canyon; all occurred during summer 2012) electrified and produced small intracloud discharges whenever the smoke plumes grew to high altitudes (over 10 km above mean sea level, or MSL). This occurred during periods of rapid wildfire growth, as indicated by the shortwave infrared channel on a geostationary satellite, as well as by incident reports. In the Hewlett Gulch case, the fire growth led to increased updrafts within the plume, as inferred by multiple‐Doppler radar syntheses, which led to the vertical development and subsequent electrification ‐ a life cycle as short as 30 minutes. The lightning, detected by a three‐dimensional lightning mapping network, was favored in high‐altitude regions (~10 km MSL) containing modest reflectivities (25 dBZ and lower), ~0 dB differential reflectivity, and reduced correlation coefficient (~0.6‐0.7). This indicated the likely presence of ice particles (crystals and aggregates, possibly rimed) mixed with ash. Though neither multiple‐Doppler nor polarimetric observations were available during the electrification of the High Park and Waldo Canyon plumes, their NEXRAD observations showed reflectivity structures consistent with Hewlett Gulch. In addition, polarimetric and multiple‐Doppler scanning of unelectrified High Park plumes indicated only irregularly shaped ash, and not ice, was present (i.e., reflectivities < 25 dBZ, differential reflectivity > 5 dB, correlation < 0.4), and there was no broaching of the 10 km altitude. Based on these results, the electrification likely was caused by ice‐based processes that did not involve significant amounts of graupel. Results for pyrocumulus clouds above notable 2013 wildfires that also experienced rapid growth (e.g., Black Forest, Yarnell Hill, West Fork, Tres Lagunas, etc.) will be compared against the 2012 cases, with special emphasis on polarimetric NEXRAD and available lightning measurements, in order to better understand the physical processes responsible for pyrocumulus electrification.

Lang, Timothy J.↗