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At least 757 records · Page 42

A machine learning approach to photometric metallicities of giant stars

ABSTRACT Despite the advances provided by large-scale photometric surveys, stellar features – such as metallicity – generally remain limited to spectroscopic observations often of bright, nearby low-extinction stars. To rectify this, we present a neural network approach for estimating the metallicities and distances of red giant stars with 8-band photometry and parallaxes from Gaia EDR3 and the 2MASS and WISE surveys. The algorithm accounts for uncertainties in the predictions arising from the range of possible outputs at each input and from the range of models compatible with the training set (through drop-out). A two-stage procedure is adopted where an initial network to estimate photoastrometric parallaxes is trained using a large sample of noisy parallax data from Gaia EDR3 and then a secondary network is trained using spectroscopic metallicities from the APOGEE and LAMOST surveys and an augmented feature space utilizing the first-stage parallax estimates. The algorithm produces metallicity predictions with an average uncertainty of $\pm 0.19\, \mathrm{dex}$. The methodology is applied to stars within the Galactic bar/bulge with particular focus on a sample of 1.69 million objects with Gaia radial velocities. We demonstrate the use and validity of our approach by inspecting both spatial and kinematic gradients with metallicity in the Galactic bar/bulge recovering previous results on the vertical metallicity gradient (−0.528 ± 0.002 dex kpc−1) and the vertex deviation of the bar ($-21.29\pm 2.74\, \mathrm{deg}$).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Forecasting the potential of weak lensing magnification to enhance LSST large-scale structure analyses

ABSTRACT Recent works have shown that weak lensing magnification must be included in upcoming large-scale structure analyses, such as for the Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST), to avoid biasing the cosmological results. In this work, we investigate whether including magnification has a positive impact on the precision of the cosmological constraints, as well as being necessary to avoid bias. We forecast this using an LSST mock catalogue and a halo model to calculate the galaxy power spectra. We find that including magnification has little effect on the precision of the cosmological parameter constraints for an LSST galaxy clustering analysis, where the halo model parameters are additionally constrained by the galaxy luminosity function. In particular, we find that for the LSST gold sample (i < 25.3) including weak lensing magnification only improves the galaxy clustering constraint on Ωm by a factor of 1.03, and when using a very deep LSST mock sample (i < 26.5) by a factor of 1.3. Since magnification predominantly contributes to the clustering measurement and provides similar information to that of cosmic shear, this improvement would be reduced for a combined galaxy clustering and shear analysis. We also confirm that not modelling weak lensing magnification will catastrophically bias the cosmological results from LSST. Magnification must therefore be included in LSST large-scale structure analyses even though it does not significantly enhance the precision of the cosmological constraints.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

AGNs in post-mergers from the ultraviolet near infrared optical northern survey

The kinematic disturbances associated with major galaxy mergers are known to produce gas inflows, which in turn may trigger accretion onto the supermassive black holes (SMBH) of the participant galaxies. While this effect has been studied in galaxy pairs, the frequency of active galactic nuclei (AGNs) in fully coalesced post-merger systems is poorly constrained due to the limited size or impurity of extant post-merger samples. Previously, we combined convolutional neural network (CNN) predictions with visual classifications to identify a highly pure sample of 699 post-mergers in deep r-band imaging. In the work presented here, we quantify the frequency of AGNs in this sample using three metrics: optical emission lines, mid-infrared (mid-IR) colour, and radio detection of low-excitation radio galaxies (LERGs). We also compare the frequency of AGNs in post-mergers to that in a sample of spectroscopically identified galaxy pairs. We find that AGNs identified by narrow-line optical emission and mid-IR colour have an increased incidence rate in post-mergers, with excesses of ~4 over mass- and redshift-matched controls. The optical and mid-IR AGN excesses in post-mergers exceed the values found for galaxy pairs, indicating that AGN activity in mergers peaks after coalescence. Conversely, we recover no significant excess of LERGs in post-mergers or pairs. Finally, we find that the [O III ] luminosity (a proxy for SMBH accretion rate) in post-mergers that host an optical AGN is ~0.3 dex higher on average than in non-interacting galaxies with an optical AGN, suggesting that mergers generate higher accretion rates than secular triggering mechanisms.

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Radio galaxy zoo EMU: towards a semantic radio galaxy morphology taxonomy

We present a novel natural language processing (NLP) approach to deriving plain English descriptors for science cases otherwise restricted by obfuscating technical terminology. We address the limitations of common radio galaxy morphology classifications by applying this approach. We experimentally derive a set of semantic tags for the Radio Galaxy Zoo EMU (Evolutionary Map of the Universe) project and the wider astronomical community. We collect 8486 plain English annotations of radio galaxy morphology, from which we derive a taxonomy of tags. The tags are plain English. The result is an extensible framework, which is more flexible, more easily communicated, and more sensitive to rare feature combinations, which are indescribable using the current framework of radio astronomy classifications.

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Dissect two-halo galactic conformity effect for central galaxies: the dependence of star formation activities on the large-scale environment

We investigate the two-halo galactic conformity effect for central galaxies, which is the spatial correlation of the star formation activities for central galaxies to several Mpcs, by studying the dependence of the star formation activities of central galaxies on their large-scale structure in our local Universe using the SDSS data. Here we adopt a novel environment metric using only central galaxies quantified by the distance to the nth nearest central galaxy. This metric measures the environment within an aperture from ∼1 to ≳ 10 Mpc, with a median value of ∼4 Mpc. We found that two kinds of conformity effects in our local Universe. The first one is that low-mass central galaxies are more quenched in high-density regions, and we found that this effect mainly comes from low-mass centrals that are close to a more massive halo. A similar trend is also found in the IllustrisTNG simulation, which can be entirely explained by backsplash galaxies. The second conformity effect is that massive central galaxies in low-density regions are more star-forming. This population of galaxies also possesses a higher fraction of spiral morphology and lower central stellar velocity dispersion, suggesting that their low quiescent fraction is due to less-frequent major merger events experienced in the low-density regions and, as a consequence, less-massive bulges and central black holes.

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A data compression and optimal galaxy weights scheme for Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument and weak lensing data sets

Combining different observational probes, such as galaxy clustering and weak lensing, is a promising technique for unveiling the physics of the Universe with upcoming dark energy experiments. The galaxy redshift sample from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) will have a significant overlap with major ongoing imaging surveys specifically designed for weak lensing measurements: the Kilo-Degree Survey (KiDS), the Dark Energy Survey (DES), and the Hyper Suprime-Cam (HSC) survey. In this work, we analyse simulated redshift and lensing catalogues to establish a new strategy for combining high-quality cosmological imaging and spectroscopic data, in view of the first-year data assembly analysis of DESI. In a test case fitting for a reduced parameter set, we employ an optimal data compression scheme able to identify those aspects of the data that are most sensitive to cosmological information and amplify them with respect to other aspects of the data. We find this optimal compression approach is able to preserve all the information related to the growth of structures.

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Uncertainty quantification of the virial black hole mass with conformal prediction

Precise measurements of the black hole mass are essential to gain insight on the black hole and host galaxy co-evolution. A direct measure of the black hole mass is often restricted to nearest galaxies and instead, an indirect method using the single-epoch virial black hole mass estimation is used for objects at high redshifts. However, this method is subjected to biases and uncertainties as it is reliant on the scaling relation from a small sample of local active galactic nuclei. In this study, we propose the application of conformalized quantile regression (CQR) to quantify the uncertainties of the black hole predictions in a machine learning setting. We compare CQR with various prediction interval techniques and demonstrated that CQR can provide a more useful prediction interval indicator. In contrast to baseline approaches for prediction interval estimation, we show that the CQR method provides prediction intervals that adjust to the black hole mass and its related properties. That is it yields a tighter constraint on the prediction interval (hence more certain) for a larger black hole mass, and accordingly, bright and broad spectral line width source. Using a combination of neural network model and CQR framework, the recovered virial black hole mass predictions and uncertainties are comparable to those measured from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey. The code is publicly available.

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On the impact of the galaxy window function on cosmological parameter estimation

One important source of systematics in galaxy redshift surveys comes from the estimation of the galaxy window function. Up until now, the impact of the uncertainty in estimating the galaxy window function on parameter inference has not been properly studied. In this paper, we show that the uncertainty and the bias in estimating the galaxy window function will be salient for ongoing and next-generation galaxy surveys using a simulation-based approach. With a specific case study of cross-correlating emission-line galaxies from the DESI Legacy Imaging Surveys and the Planck cosmic microwave background lensing map, we show that neural network-based regression approaches to modelling the window function are superior in comparison to linear regression-based models. Here, we additionally show that the definition of the galaxy overdensity estimator can impact the overall signal-to-noise of observed power spectra. Finally, we show that the additive biases coming from the window functions can significantly bias the modes of the inferred parameters and also degrade their precision. Thus, a careful understanding of the window functions will be essential to conduct cosmological experiments.

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An empirical approach to model selection: weak lensing and intrinsic alignments

ABSTRACT In cosmology, we routinely choose between models to describe our data, and can incur biases due to insufficient models or lose constraining power with overly complex models. In this paper, we propose an empirical approach to model selection that explicitly balances parameter bias against model complexity. Our method uses synthetic data to calibrate the relation between bias and the χ2 difference between models. This allows us to interpret χ2 values obtained from real data (even if catalogues are blinded) and choose a model accordingly. We apply our method to the problem of intrinsic alignments – one of the most significant weak lensing systematics, and a major contributor to the error budget in modern lensing surveys. Specifically, we consider the example of the Dark Energy Survey Year 3 (DES Y3), and compare the commonly used non-linear alignment (NLA) and tidal alignment and tidal torque (TATT) models. The models are calibrated against bias in the Ωm–S8 plane. Once noise is accounted for, we find that it is possible to set a threshold Δχ2 that guarantees an analysis using NLA is unbiased at some specified level Nσ and confidence level. By contrast, we find that theoretically defined thresholds (based on, e.g. p-values for χ2) tend to be overly optimistic, and do not reliably rule out cosmological biases up to ∼1–2σ. Considering the real DES Y3 cosmic shear results, based on the reported difference in χ2 from NLA and TATT analyses, we find a roughly $30{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ chance that were NLA to be the fiducial model, the results would be biased (in the Ωm–S8 plane) by more than 0.3σ. More broadly, the method we propose here is simple and general, and requires a relatively low level of resources. We foresee applications to future analyses as a model selection tool in many contexts.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

nautilus : boosting Bayesian importance nested sampling with deep learning

ABSTRACT We introduce a novel approach to boost the efficiency of the importance nested sampling (INS) technique for Bayesian posterior and evidence estimation using deep learning. Unlike rejection-based sampling methods such as vanilla nested sampling (NS) or Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms, importance sampling techniques can use all likelihood evaluations for posterior and evidence estimation. However, for efficient importance sampling, one needs proposal distributions that closely mimic the posterior distributions. We show how to combine INS with deep learning via neural network regression to accomplish this task. We also introduce nautilus, a reference open-source python implementation of this technique for Bayesian posterior and evidence estimation. We compare nautilus against popular NS and MCMC packages, including emcee, dynesty, ultranest, and pocomc, on a variety of challenging synthetic problems and real-world applications in exoplanet detection, galaxy SED fitting and cosmology. In all applications, the sampling efficiency of nautilus is substantially higher than that of all other samplers, often by more than an order of magnitude. Simultaneously, nautilus delivers highly accurate results and needs fewer likelihood evaluations than all other samplers tested. We also show that nautilus has good scaling with the dimensionality of the likelihood and is easily parallelizable to many CPUs.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A declining major merger fraction with redshift in the local Universe from the largest-yet catalogue of major and minor mergers in SDSS

It is difficult to accurately identify galaxy mergers and it is an even larger challenge to classify them by their mass ratio or merger stage. In previous work we used a suite of simulated mergers to create a classification technique that uses linear discriminant analysis to identify major and minor mergers. Here, we apply this technique to 1.3 million galaxies from the SDSS DR16 photometric catalogue and present the probability that each galaxy is a major or minor merger, splitting the classifications by merger stages (early, late, post-coalescence). We present publicly available imaging predictor values and all of the above classifications for one of the largest-yet samples of galaxies. We measure the major and minor merger fraction (f merg ) and build a mass-complete sample of galaxies, which we bin as a function of stellar mass and redshift. For the major mergers, we find a positive slope of fmerg with stellar mass and negative slope of f merg with redshift between stellar masses of 10.5 < M * (log M ⊙ ) < 11.6 and redshifts of 0.03 < z < 0.19. We are able to reproduce an artificial positive slope of the major merger fraction with redshift when we do not bin for mass or craft a complete sample, demonstrating the importance of mass completeness and mass binning. Further, we determine that the positive trend of the major merger fraction with stellar mass is consistent with a hierarchical assembly scenario. The negative trend with redshift requires that an additional assembly mechanism, such as baryonic feedback, dominates in the local Universe.

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A dark siren measurement of the Hubble constant using gravitational wave events from the first three LIGO/Virgo observing runs and DELVE

The current and next observation seasons will detect hundreds of gravitational waves (GWs) from compact binary systems coalescence at cosmological distances. When combined with independent electromagnetic measurements, the source redshift will be known, and we will be able to obtain precise measurements of the Hubble constant H_0 via the distance–redshift relation. However, most observed mergers are not expected to have electromagnetic counterparts, which prevents a direct redshift measurement. In this scenario, one possibility is to use the dark sirens method that statistically marginalizes over all the potential host galaxies within the GW location volume to provide a probabilistic source redshift. Here we presented H_0 measurements using two new dark sirens compared to previous analyses using DECam data: GW190924|$\_$|021846 and GW200202|$\_$|154313. The photometric redshifts of the possible host galaxies of these two events are acquired from the DECam Local Volume Exploration Survey (DELVE) carried out on the Blanco telescope at Cerro Tololo. The combination of the H_0 posterior from GW190924|$\_$|021846 and GW200202|$\_$|154313 together with the bright siren GW170817 leads to |$H_{0} = 68.84^{+15.51}_{-7.74}\, \rm {km\, s^{-1}\, Mpc^{-1}}$|⁠. Including these two dark sirens improves the 68 per cent confidence interval (CI) by 7 per cent over GW170817 alone. This demonstrates that the addition of well-localized dark sirens in such analysis improves the precision of cosmological measurements. Using a sample containing 10 well-localized dark sirens observed during the third LIGO/Virgo observation run, without the inclusion of GW170817, we determine a measurement of |$H_{0} = 76.00^{+17.64}_{-13.45}\, \rm {km\, s^{-1}\, Mpc^{-1}}$|⁠.

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Validating sequential Monte Carlo for gravitational-wave inference

Nested sampling (NS) is the preferred stochastic sampling algorithm for gravitational-wave inference for compact binary coalescences. It can handle the complex nature of the gravitational-wave likelihood surface and provides an estimate of the Bayesian model evidence. However, there is another class of algorithms that meets the same requirements, but has not been used for gravitational-wave analyses: sequential Monte Carlo (SMC), an extension of importance sampling that maps samples from an initial density to a target density via a series of intermediate densities. In this work, we validate a type of SMC algorithm, called persistent sampling (PS), for gravitational-wave inference. We consider a range of different scenarios including binary black holes and binary neutron stars and real and simulated data and show that PS produces results that are consistent with NS whilst being, on average, 2 times more efficient and 2.74 times faster. This demonstrates that PS is a viable alternative to NS that should be considered for future gravitational-wave analyses.

black hole mergers↗

Unraveling emission line galaxy conformity at z ∼ 1 with DESI early data

Emission line galaxies (ELGs) are now the preeminent tracers of large-scale structure at z > 0.8 due to their high density and strong emission lines, which enable accurate redshift measurements. However, relatively little is known about ELG evolution and the ELG–halo connection, exposing us to potential modelling systematics in cosmology inference using these sources. In this paper, we use a variety of observations and simulated galaxy models to propose a physical picture of ELGs and improve ELG–halo connection modelling in a halo occupation distribution framework. We investigate Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI)-selected ELGs in COSMOS data, and infer that ELGs are rapidly star-forming galaxies with a large fraction exhibiting disturbed morphology, implying that many of them are likely to be merger-driven starbursts. We further postulate that the tidal interactions from mergers lead to correlated star formation in central–satellite ELG pairs, a phenomenon dubbed ‘conformity’. We argue for the need to include conformity in the ELG–halo connection using galaxy models such as IllustrisTNG, and by combining observations such as the DESI ELG autocorrelation, ELG cross-correlation with luminous red galaxies, and ELG–cluster cross-correlation. We also explore the origin of conformity using the UniverseMachine model and elucidate the difference between conformity and the well-known galaxy assembly bias effect.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DAmodel: hierarchical Bayesian modelling of DA white dwarfs for spectrophotometric calibration

We use hierarchical Bayesian modelling to calibrate a network of 32 all-sky faint DA white dwarf (DA WD) spectrophotometric standards (⁠16.5 < V , 19.5⁠) alongside three CALSPEC standards, from 912 Å to 32 μm. The framework is the first of its kind to jointly infer photometric zero points and WD parameters (surface gravity log g⁠, effective temperature T eff ⁠, extinction A V ⁠, dust relation parameter R V ) by simultaneously modelling both photometric and spectroscopic data. We model panchromatic Hubble Space Telescope Wide Field Camera 3 (HST/WFC3) UVIS and IR photometry, HST/STIS UV spectroscopy, and ground-based optical spectroscopy to sub-per cent precision. Photometric residuals for the sample are the lowest yet yielding < 0.004 mag RMS on average from the UV to the NIR, achieved by jointly inferring time-dependent changes in system sensitivity and WFC3/IR count-rate nonlinearity. Our GPU-accelerated implementation enables efficient sampling via Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, critical for exploring the high-dimensional posterior space. The hierarchical nature of the model enables population analysis of intrinsic WD and dust parameters. Inferred spectral energy distributions from this model will be essential for calibrating the James Webb Space Telescope as well as next-generation surveys, including Vera Rubin Observatory’s Legacy Survey of Space and Time and the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope.

methods: statistical↗

The return of the merging galaxy subclusters of El Gordo?

Merging galaxy clusters with radio relics provide rare insights to the merger dynamics as the relics are created by the violent merger process. We demonstrate one of the first uses of the properties of the radio relic to reduce the uncertainties of the dynamical variables and determine the three-dimensional (3D) configuration of a cluster merger, ACT-CL J0102-4915, nicknamed El Gordo. From the double radio relic observation and the X-ray observation of a comet-like gas morphology induced by motion of the cool core, it is widely believed that El Gordo is observed shortly after the first core passage of the subclusters. Here, we employ a Monte Carlo simulation to investigate the 3D configuration and dynamics of El Gordo. Using the polarization fraction of the radio relic, we constrain the estimate of the angle between the plane of the sky and the merger axis to be α=21°± $9\atop{11}$. We find the relative 3D merger speed of El Gordo to be 2400 ± $400\atop{200}$ km s -1 at pericentre. The two possible estimates of the time since pericentre (TSP) are 0.46 ± $0.09\atop{0.16}$ and 0.91± $0.22\atop{0.39}$ Gyr for the outgoing and returning scenario, respectively. We put our estimates of the TSP into context by showing that if the time-averaged shock velocity is approximately equal to or smaller than the pericentre velocity of the corresponding subcluster in the centre-of-mass frame, the two subclusters are more likely to be moving towards, rather than away, from each other, post apocentre. Finally, we compare and contrast the merger scenario of El Gordo with that of the Bullet Cluster, and show that this late-stage merging scenario explains why the south-east (SE) dark matter lensing peak of El Gordo is closer to the merger centre than the SE cool core.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Discovery of two gravitationally lensed quasars in the Dark Energy Survey

In this study, we present spectroscopic confirmation of two new lensed quasars via data obtained at the 6.5m Magellan/Baade Telescope. The lens candidates have been selected from the Dark Energy Survey (DES) and WISE based on their multi-band photometry and extended morphology in DES images. Images of DES J0115-5244 show two blue point sources at either side of a red galaxy. Our long-slit data confirm that both point sources are images of the same quasar at z s = 1.64. The Einstein Radius estimated from the DES images is 0.51''. DES J2146-0047 is in the area of overlap between DES and the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS). Two blue components are visible in the DES and SDSS images. The SDSS fiber spectrum shows a quasar component at z s = 2.38 and absorption compatible with Mg II and Fe II at z l = 0.799, which we tentatively associate with the foreground lens galaxy. The long-slit Magellan spectra show that the blue components are resolved images of the same quasar. Furthermore, the Einstein Radius is 0.68'' corresponding to an enclosed mass of 1.6 × 10 11 M ⊙ . Three other candidates were observed and rejected, two being low-redshift pairs of starburst galaxies, and one being a quasar behind a blue star. These first confirmation results provide an important empirical validation of the data-mining and model-based selection that is being applied to the entire DES dataset.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

Galaxy Cluster Mass Reconstruction Project - II. Quantifying scatter and bias using contrasting mock catalogues

Our paper is the second in a series in which we perform an extensive comparison of various galaxy-based cluster mass estimation techniques that utilize the positions, velocities and colours of galaxies. Our aim is to quantify the scatter, systematic bias and completeness of cluster masses derived from a diverse set of 25 galaxy-based methods using two contrasting mock galaxy catalogues based on a sophisticated halo occupation model and a semi-analytic model. Analysing 968 clusters, we find a wide range in the rms errors in log M200c delivered by the different methods (0.18–1.08 dex, i.e. a factor of ~1.5–12), with abundance-matching and richness methods providing the best results, irrespective of the input model assumptions. In addition, certain methods produce a significant number of catastrophic cases where the mass is under- or overestimated by a factor greater than 10. Given the steeply falling high-mass end of the cluster mass function, we recommend that richness- or abundance-matching-based methods are used in conjunction with these methods as a sanity check for studies selecting high-mass clusters. We also see a stronger correlation of the recovered to input number of galaxies for both catalogues in comparison with the group/cluster mass, however, this does not guarantee that the correct member galaxies are being selected. Finally, we did not observe significantly higher scatter for either mock galaxy catalogues. These results have implications for cosmological analyses that utilize the masses, richnesses, or abundances of clusters, which have different uncertainties when different methods are used.

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