Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Model Inference”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 757 records · Page 42
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Fast Adaptive Neural Control of Resonant Extraction at Fermilab

We present progress on the development of a machine learning (ML) regulation system for third-order resonant extraction of the beam delivered to the Mu2e experiment at Fermilab. We consider classical and ML-based controllers optimized on semi-analytic simulations and provide performance comparisons for several models. Additionally, we discuss the efficiency of each model in training, which has implications for future work on adaptive control. We also discuss progress on developing optimized implementations of ML models for edge-based inference.

Whitbeck, A. [Fermilab] (ORCID:0000000342245164)↗
DOE OSTI2017

Exploiting Cross-sensitivity by Bayesian Decoding of Mixed Potential Sensor Arrays

LANL mixed-potential electrochemical sensor (MPES) device arrays were coupled with advanced Bayesian inference treatment of the physical model of relevant sensor-analyte interactions. We demonstrated that our approach could be used to uniquely discriminate the composition of ternary gas sensors with three discreet MPES sensors with an average error of less than 2%. We also observed that the MPES exhibited excellent stability over a year of operation at elevated temperatures in the presence of test gases.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2019

Hierarchical Linear Regression (Rev. 1)

We describe an algorithm for making inferences in a hierarchical linear model. The model allows different slopes and intercepts for different groups, and ties together the different slopes by representing them as samples from a higher level distribution. (The intercepts are treated as statistically independent.) Our model and code permit many options for the variance of this hierarchical distribution for the slopes, including gamma distributions on the precision, t-distributions on the standard error, pooled slopes (all equal), and independent slopes. The algorithm is described in the paper; an implementation of the algorithm in R is available on request.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Analysis of the effect of spherical aberrations on a solenoid scan

Solenoid scans are often used to determine the beam emittance of an intense relativistic electron beam (IREB). In a solenoid scan, the beam size is measured at a location downstream of the solenoid as a function of the strength of the solenoid magnetic field. The emittance is then inferred using a beam optics model of the transport of the beam through the solenoid magnet to the imaging location. This requires precise knowledge of the field strength and shape as a function of the current supplied to the solenoid. The beam optics model for an IREB needs to include an accurate model of the magnetic field. Unfortunately, most beam optics models do not include the effect of spherical aberrations which are inherent in a solenoid magnet. Spherical aberrations are manifested as an essentially quadratic increase in the solenoid magnetic field as a function of radius. One consequence of this is that the focal length will be dependent on the beam radius. This note examines the sensitivity of a typical solenoid scan performed on DARHT axis 2 to spherical aberrations. The sensitivity to spherical aberrations is examined as a function of the beam envelope size and the drift distance from the solenoid magnet to the imaging station.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2025

Geant4 Event Biasing and Fast Simulation

Geant4 offers advanced event biasing techniques to significantly accelerate simulations involving rare events. Various biasing methods, such as leading particle selection, cross-section biasing, radioactive decay enhancement, and bremsstrahlung splitting, enable efficient event sampling, though they require careful handling. Additionally, Geant4 provides a Fast Simulation Interface, allowing the replacement of standard processes in specific region and for selected particles, enabling faster execution or external code integration. Applications of fast simulation include electromagnetic shower modeling in calorimeters, machine learning inference, and offloading tasks to specialized hardware like GPUs, making Geant4 a powerful tool for computationally demanding simulations.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Fast Adaptive Neural Control of Resonant Extraction at Fermilab

We present progress on the development of a machine learning (ML) regulation system for third-order resonant extraction of the beam delivered to the Mu2e experiment at Fermilab. We consider classical and ML-based controllers optimized on semi-analytic simulations and provide perfor- mance comparisons for several models. Additionally, we discuss the efficiency of each model in training, which has implications for future work on adaptive control. We also discuss progress on developing optimized implementations of ML models for edge-based inference.

Whitbeck, A. [Fermilab]↗
DOE OSTI2025

Clustering of DESI galaxies split by thermal Sunyaev-Zeldovich effect

The thermal Sunyaev-Zeldovich (tSZ) effect is associated with galaxy clusters - extremely large and dense structures tracing the dark matter with a higher bias than isolated galaxies. We propose to use the tSZ data to separate galaxies from redshift surveys into distinct subpopulations corresponding to different densities and biases independently of the redshift survey systematics. Leveraging the information from different environments, as in density-split and density-marked clustering, is known to tighten the constraints on cosmological parameters, like $\Omega_m$, $\sigma_8$ and neutrino mass. We use data from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) and the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) in their region of overlap to demonstrate informative tSZ splitting of Luminous Red Galaxies (LRGs). We discover a significant increase in the large-scale clustering of DESI LRGs corresponding to detections starting from 1-2 sigma in the ACT DR6 + Planck tSZ Compton-$y$ map, below the cluster candidate threshold (4 sigma). We also find that such galaxies have higher line-of-sight coordinate (and velocity) dispersions and a higher number of close neighbors than both the full sample and near-zero tSZ regions. We produce simple simulations of tSZ maps that are intrinsically consistent with galaxy catalogs and do not include systematic effects, and find a similar pattern of large-scale clustering enhancement with tSZ effect significance. Moreover, we observe that this relative bias pattern remains largely unchanged with variations in the galaxy-halo connection model in our simulations. This is promising for future cosmological inference from tSZ-split clustering with semi-analytical models. Thus, we demonstrate that valuable cosmological information is present in the lower signal-to-noise regions of the thermal Sunyaev-Zeldovich map, extending far beyond the individual cluster candidates.

Astronomy data analysis↗
DOE OSTI2026

XRISM Finds the Changing-look Active Galactic Nucleus NGC 1365 in an Extended Low State: A Dense, Highly Ionized Outflow Obscures the Central Source

We present the first XRISM/Resolve observations of the active galactic nucleus NGC 1365, obtained in 2024 February and July. NGC 1365 is known for rapid transitions between Compton-thick and Compton-thin states, along with strong absorption from a highly ionized wind. During our observations, the source was found in a persistent low-flux state, characterized by a decrease in hard-X-ray luminosity and significant line-of-sight obscuration. In this state, XRISM/Resolve reveals clear Fe XXV and Fe XXVI absorption lines together with, for the first time in this source, corresponding emission lines. These features may arise either from reemission from a photoionized wind (P Cygni profile) or from collisionally ionized gas associated with outflow-driven shocks in the interstellar medium. We estimate the wind launch radius to be approximately 10 16 cm (∼10 4 R g ), consistent with the location of the X-ray broadline region. We also resolve a broadened Fe Kα line by σ ∼ 1300 km s −1 , placing it at similar scales to the wind, consistent with radii inferred from disk-broadening models and the variability of the Fe Kα broad line. The similarity of the Fe Kα profile to the Hβ wing and broad Paα width indicates that the X-ray-emitting region is likely cospatial with the optical/infrared broadline region and originates from the same gas.

Astronomy and AstroPhysics↗
DOE OSTI2022

Probabilistic estimation of depth-resolved profiles of soil thermal diffusivity from temperature time series

Abstract. Improving the quantification of soil thermal and physical properties is key to achieving a better understanding and prediction of soil hydro-biogeochemical processes and their responses to changes in atmospheric forcing. Obtaining such information at numerous locations and/or over time with conventional soil sampling is challenging. The increasing availability of low-cost, vertically resolved temperature sensor arrays offers promise for improving the estimation of soil thermal properties from temperature time series, and the possible indirect estimation of physical properties. Still, the reliability and limitations of such an approach need to be assessed. In the present study, we develop a parameter estimation approach based on a combination of thermal modeling, sliding time windows, Bayesian inference, and Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation to estimate thermal diffusivity and its uncertainty over time, at numerous locations and at an unprecedented vertical spatial resolution (i.e., down to 5 to 10 cm vertical resolution) from soil temperature time series. We provide the necessary framework to assess under which environmental conditions (soil temperature gradient, fluctuations, and trend), temperature sensor characteristics (bias and level of noise), and deployment geometries (sensor number and position) soil thermal diffusivity can be reliably inferred. We validate the method with synthetic experiments and field studies. The synthetic experiments show that in the presence of median diurnal fluctuations ≥ 1.5 ∘C at 5 cm below the ground surface, temperature gradients > 2 ∘C m−1, and a sliding time window of at least 4 d the proposed method provides reliable depth-resolved thermal diffusivity estimates with percentage errors ≤ 10 % and posterior relative standard deviations ≤ 5 % up to 1 m depth. Reliable thermal diffusivity under such environmental conditions also requires temperature sensors to be spaced precisely (with accuracy to a few millimeters), with a level of noise ≤ 0.02 ∘C, and with a bias defined by a standard deviation ≤ 0.01 ∘C. Finally, the application of the developed approach to field data indicates significant repeatability in results and similarity with independent measurements, as well as promise in using a sliding time window to estimate temporal changes in soil thermal diffusivity, as needed to potentially capture changes in bulk density or water content.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Tensor-Dictionary Learning with Deep Kruskal-Factor Analysis

We introduce new dictionary learning methods for tensor-variate data of any order. We represent each data item as a sum of Kruskal decomposed dictionary atoms within the framework of beta-process factor analysis (BPFA). Our model is nonparametric and can infer the tensor-rank of each dictionary atom. This Kruskal-Factor Analysis (KFA) is a natural generalization of BPFA. We also extend KFA to a deep convolutional setting and develop online learning methods. We test our approach on image processing and classification tasks achieving state of the art results for 2D & 3D inpainting and Caltech 101. The experiments also show that atom-rank impacts both overcompleteness and sparsity.

Stevens, Andrew J.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Bayesian inference for plasmonic nanometrology

Here, we introduce a Bayesian method for the characterization of plasmonic nanoparticles, which is applicable to both near- and far-field problems. Designed to combine data generated from any photon-plasmon interaction experiment with physically motivated theoretical models, our approach leverages state-of-the-art Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling techniques and returns parameter estimates on nanometric scales. Simulated spectral data sets, describing resonant scattering of photons from ellipsoidal and toroidal nanoparticles, are explored as concrete examples of our approach, with the resulting Bayesian estimates showing excellent agreement with the ground truth, even under conditions of high statistical noise. By incorporating Bayes factors into the method as well, we reveal how model selection can determine which one of competing geometric shapes better explains the observed data. Our comprehensive nanometrology procedure can be tailored to a variety of light-particle interaction models, and its reliance on Bayesian inference furnishes automatic uncertainty quantification. In addition to applicability to a host of plasmonic configurations such as nanoparticle dimers, trimers, and array studies, it is proposed that the presented analysis can be extended to the quantum regime, where nonclassical photon statistics may provide additional insight for inference of scatterer properties.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Variational Inference Approach to Inverse Problems with Gamma Hyperpriors

Hierarchical models with gamma hyperpriors provide a flexible, sparse-promoting framework to bridge L 1 and L 2 regularizations in Bayesian formulations to inverse problems. Despite the Bayesian motivation for these models, existing methodologies are limited to maximum a posteriori estimation. The potential to perform uncertainty quantification has not yet been realized. This paper introduces a variational iterative alternating scheme for hierarchical inverse problems with gamma hyperpriors. The proposed variational inference approach yields accurate reconstruction, provides meaningful uncertainty quantification, and is easy to implement. In addition, it lends itself naturally to conduct model selection for the choice of hyperparameters. Here, we illustrate the performance of our methodology in several computed examples, including a deconvolution problem and sparse identification of dynamical systems from time series data.

Bayesian shrinkage↗
DOE OSTI2025

wa-hls4ml and lui-gnn: A benchmark and GNN-based surrogate model for hls4ml resource and latency estimation

As machine learning (ML) increasingly serves as a tool for addressing real-time challenges in scientific applications, the development of advanced tooling has significantly reduced the time required to iterate on various designs. These advancements have solved major obstacles, but also exposed new challenges. For example, processes that were not previously considered bottlenecks, such as model synthesis, are now becoming limiting factors in the rapid iteration of designs. To reduce these emerging constraints, multiple efforts are being launched toward designing an ML-based surrogate model that estimates resource usage of synthesized accelerator architectures. This model would reduce the design iteration time, especially when designing within a set of given hardware constraints. This approach shows considerable potential, but as it stands, the effort is early and would benefit from coordination and standardization to assist future work as it emerges. We introduce wa-hls4ml, a benchmark for ML accelerator resource and latency estimation, and its corresponding initial dataset of more than 100,000 fully connected neural networks, all synthesized using hls4ml and targeting Xilinx FPGAs. In addition to the resource utilization and latency data provided, the dataset includes generated artifacts and log files for many of the synthesized neural networks, in order to support future research in ML-based code generation. The benchmark evaluates the performance of resource and latency predictors against several common ML model architectures, primarily originating from scientific domains, as exemplar models, as well as the average performance across a subset of the dataset. We measure the performance of a given predictor model through multiple metrics, including $R^2$ score and SMAPE on regression tasks, as well as inference time to further characterize the estimator under test. Additionally, we introduce the latency/utilization inference graph neural network (lui-gnn), a surrogate model that uses a graph neural network to represent input architectures in the form of a directed graph. This graph representation allows for a diverse set of model architectures to all be effectively handled by a surrogate model. We present the architecture and performance of the model, as evaluated by the new proposed benchmark, including SMAPE, $R^2$ score, and inference times, and find that lui-gnn generally predicts latency and utilization for the 75\% quantile within several percent of the synthesized resources on the synthetic test dataset, indicating that this approach of estimating resource and latency via a surrogate models has promise and warrants further research.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Radiation Source Localization Using Surrogate Models Constructed from 3-D Monte Carlo Transport Physics Simulations

Recent research has focused on the development of surrogate models for radiation source localization in a simulated urban domain. We employ the Monte Carlo N-Particle (MCNP) code to provide high- delity simulations of radiation transport within an urban domain. The model is constructed to employ a source location (x, y, z) as input and return the estimated count rate for a set of speci ed detector locations. Because MCNP simulations are computationally expensive, we develop e cient and accurate surrogate models of the detector responses. We construct surrogate models using Gaussian processes (GP) and neural networks (NN) that we train and verify using the MCNP simulations. The trained surrogate models provide an e cient framework for Bayesian inference and experimental design. We employ Delayed Rejection Adaptive Metropolis (DRAM), a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm, to infer the location and intensity of an unknown source. The DRAM results yield a posterior probability distribution for the source's location conditioned on the observed detector count rates. The posterior distribution exhibits regions of high and low probability within the simulated environment identifying potential source locations. In this manner, we can quantify the source location to within at least one of these regions of high probability in the considered cases. Employing these methods, we are able to reduce the space of potential source locations by at least 60%.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2023

Measuring the giant radio galaxy length distribution with the LoTSS

Many massive galaxies launch jets from the accretion disk of their central black hole, but only ~10 3 instances are known in which the associated outflows form giant radio galaxies (GRGs, or giants): luminous structures of megaparsec extent that consist of atomic nuclei, relativistic electrons, and magnetic fields. Large samples are imperative to understanding the enigmatic growth of giants, and recent systematic searches in homogeneous surveys constitute a promising development. For the first time, it is possible to perform meaningful precision statistics with GRG lengths, but a framework to do so is missing. We measured the intrinsic GRG length distribution by combining a novel statistical framework with a LOFAR Two-metre Sky Survey (LoTSS) sample of freshly discovered giants. In turn, this allowed us to answer an array of questions on giants. For example, we can now assess how rare a 5 Mpc giant is compared with one of 1 Mpc, and how much larger – given a projected length – the corresponding intrinsic length is expected to be. Notably, we can now also infer the GRG number density in the Local Universe. We assumed the intrinsic GRG length distribution to be Paretian (i.e. of power-law form) with tail index ξ, and predicted the observed distribution by modelling projection and selection effects. To infer ξ, we also systematically searched the LoTSS for hitherto unknown giants and compiled the largest catalogue of giants to date. We show that if intrinsic GRG lengths are Pareto distributed with index ξ, then projected GRG lengths are also Pareto distributed with index ξ. Selection effects induce curvature in the observed projected GRG length distribution: angular length selection flattens it towards the lower end, while surface brightness selection steepens it towards the higher end. We explicitly derived a GRG’s posterior over intrinsic lengths given its projected length, laying bare the ξ dependence. We also discovered 2060 giants within LoTSS DR2 pipeline products; our sample more than doubles the known population. Spectacular discoveries include the largest, second-largest, and fourth-largest GRG known (l p = 5.1 Mpc, l p = 5.0 Mpc, and l p = 4.8 Mpc), the largest GRG known hosted by a spiral galaxy (l p = 2.5 Mpc), and the largest secure GRG known beyond redshift 1 (l p = 3.9 Mpc). We increase the number of known giants whose angular length exceeds that of the Moon from 10 to 23; among the discoveries is the angularly largest known radio galaxy in the Northern Sky, which is also the angularly largest known GRG ($\phi$ = 2°). Combining theory and data, we determined that intrinsic GRG lengths are well described by a Pareto distribution, and measured the index ξ = –3.5 ± 0.5. This implies that, given its projected length, a GRG’s intrinsic length is expected to be just 15% larger. Finally, we determined the comoving number density of giants in the Local Universe to be n GRG = 5 ± 2(100 Mpc) –3 . We developed a practical mathematical framework that elucidates the statistics of giant radio galaxy lengths. Through a LoTSS search, we also discovered 2060 new giants. By combining both advances, we determined that intrinsic GRG lengths are well described by a Pareto distribution with index ξ = –3.5 ± 0.5, and that giants are truly rare in a cosmological sense: most clusters and filaments of the Cosmic Web are not currently home to a giant. Thus, our work yields new observational constraints for analytical models and simulations featuring radio galaxy growth.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Bayesian Approach to the Eagar–Tsai Model for Melt Pool Geometry Prediction with Implications in Additive Manufacturing of Metals

Here, this paper focuses on improving the melt pool geometry predictions and quantifying uncertainties using an adapted version of the Eagar–Tsai (E–T) model that incorporates temperature-dependent properties of the material as well as powder conditions. Additionally, Bayesian inference is employed to predict distributions for the E–T model input parameters of laser absorptivity and powder bed porosity by incorporating experimental results into the analysis. Monte Carlo uncertainty propagation is then used with these parameter distributions to estimate the melt pool depth and associated uncertainty. Our results for the 316L stainless steel suggest that both the absorptivity and powder bed porosity are strongly influenced by the laser power. In contrast, the scanning speed has only a marginal effect on both the absorptivity and powder bed porosity. We constructed a printability map using the Bayesian E–T model based on power-dependent input parameter values to demonstrate the merit of the approach. The Bayesian approach improved the accuracy in predicting the keyhole regions in the laser power-scan speed parameter space for the 316L stainless steel. Although applied to a specific adaptation of the E–T model, the method put forth can be extended to quantify uncertainties in other numerical models as well as in the estimation of unknown parameters.

316L Stainless Steel (SS).↗
DOE OSTI2026

Low-latency Jet Tagging for HL-LHC Using Transformer Architectures

Transformers are the state-of-the-art model architectures and widely used in application areas of machine learning. However the performance of such architectures is less well explored in the ultra-low latency domains where deployment on FPGAs or ASICs is required. Such domains include the trigger and data acquisition systems of the LHC experiments. We present a transformer-based algorithm for jet tagging built with the HGQ2 framework, which is able to produce a model with heterogeneous bitwidths for fast inference on FPGAs, as required in the trigger systems at the LHC experiments. The bitwidths are acquired during training by minimizing the total bit operations as an additional parameter. By allowing a bitwidth of zero, the model is pruned in-situ during training. Using this quantization-aware approach, our algorithm achieves state-of-the-art performance while also retaining permutation invariance which is a key property for particle physics applications. Due to the strength of transformers in representation learning, our work also serves as a stepping stone for the development of a larger foundation model for trigger applications.

Laatu, Lauri [Imperial Coll., London]↗
DOE OSTI2020

Veridical data science

Building and expanding on principles of statistics, machine learning, and scientific inquiry, we propose the predictability, computability, and stability (PCS) framework for veridical data science. Our framework, composed of both a workflow and documentation, aims to provide responsible, reliable, reproducible, and transparent results across the data science life cycle. The PCS workflow uses predictability as a reality check and considers the importance of computation in data collection/storage and algorithm design. It augments predictability and computability with an overarching stability principle. Stability expands on statistical uncertainty considerations to assess how human judgment calls impact data results through data and model/algorithm perturbations. As part of the PCS workflow, we develop PCS inference procedures, namely PCS perturbation intervals and PCS hypothesis testing, to investigate the stability of data results relative to problem formulation, data cleaning, modeling decisions, and interpretations. We illustrate PCS inference through neuroscience and genomics projects of our own and others. Moreover, we demonstrate its favorable performance over existing methods in terms of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves in high-dimensional, sparse linear model simulations, including a wide range of misspecified models. Finally, we propose PCS documentation based on R Markdown or Jupyter Notebook, with publicly available, reproducible codes and narratives to back up human choices made throughout an analysis. The PCS workflow and documentation are demonstrated in a genomics case study available on Zenodo.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗