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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Understanding Type Ia Supernova Distance Biases by Simulating Spectral Variations

In the next decade, transient searches from the Vera C. Rubin Observatory and the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope will increase the sample of known Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) from ~10 3 to 10 5 . With this reduction of statistical uncertainties on cosmological measurements, new methods are needed to reduce systematic uncertainties. Here, characterizing the underlying spectroscopic evolution of SN Ia remains a major systematic uncertainty in current cosmological analyses, motivating a new simulation tool for the next era of SN Ia cosmology: Build Your Own Spectral Energy Distribution (byosed). byosed is used within the SNANA framework to simulate light curves by applying spectral variations to model SEDs, enabling flexible testing of possible systematic shifts in SN Ia distance measurements. We test the framework by comparing a nominal Roman SN Ia survey simulation using a baseline SED model to simulations using SEDs perturbed with byosed, and investigating the impact of ignoring specific SED features in the analysis. These features include semiempirical models of two possible, predicted relationships: between SN ejecta velocity and light-curve observables, and a redshift-dependent relationship between SN Hubble residuals and host-galaxy mass. We analyze each byosed simulation using the SALT2 and BEAMS with Bias Corrections framework, and estimate changes in the measured value of the dark-energy equation-of-state parameter, w. We find a difference of Δw = –0.023 for SN velocity and Δw = 0.021 for redshift-evolving host mass when compared to simulations without these features. By using byosed for SN Ia cosmology simulations, future analyses (e.g., the Rubin and Roman SN Ia samples) will have greater flexibility to constrain or reduce such SN Ia modeling uncertainties.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

A User’s Guide to the PLTEMP/ANL Code

PLTEMP/ANL V4.4 is a program that obtains a steady-state flow and temperature solution, in geometrical extent, for a nuclear reactor core, or a single fuel assembly, including the effect of manufacturing and modelling uncertainties by the means of hot channel factors. It is based on an evolutionary sequence of codes originally used for calculating plate temperatures, hence “PLTEMP”, developed at Argonne National Laboratory over the past 30 years. Fueled and non-fueled regions are modeled. Each fuel assembly consists of one or more plates or tubes separated by coolant channels. The fuel plates may have one to five layers of different materials, each with heat generation. The width of a fuel plate may be divided into multiple longitudinal stripes, each with its own axial power shape. Depending upon the heat transfer method selected, the temperature solution is effectively 2-dimensional or 3-dimensional. The geometry may be either slab or radial, corresponding to fuel assemblies made of a series of flat (or slightly curved) plates, or of nested tubes. A variety of thermal-hydraulic correlations are available to determine safety margins such as onset of nucleate boiling ratio (ONBR), departure from nucleate boiling ratio (DNBR), and onset of flow instability ratio (OFIR). Coolant properties for either light or heavy water are obtained from FORTRAN functions rather than from tables. The code is intended for thermal-hydraulic analysis of research reactor performance in the sub-cooled boiling regime. Both turbulent and laminar flow regimes can be modeled. Options to calculate both forced flow and natural circulation are available. A general search capability for select design and safety parameters is available to greatly reduce the reactor analyst’s time.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
NASA NTRS2018

Modeling the Proton Radiation Belt With Van Allen Probes Relativistic Electron-Proton Telescope Data

An empirical model of the proton radiation belt is constructed from data taken during 2013-2017 by the Relativistic Electron-Proton Telescopes on the Van Allen Probes satellites. The model intensity is a function of time, kinetic energy in the range 18-600 megaelectronvolts, equatorial pitch angle, and L shell of proton guiding centers. Data are selected, on the basis of energy deposits in each of the nine silicon detectors, to reduce background caused by hard proton energy spectra at low L. Instrument response functions are computed by Monte Carlo integration, using simulated proton paths through a simplified structural model, to account for energy loss in shielding material for protons outside the nominal field of view. Overlap of energy channels, their wide angular response, and changing satellite orientation require the model dependencies on all three independent variables be determined simultaneously. This is done by least squares minimization with a customized steepest descent algorithm. Model uncertainty accounts for statistical data error and systematic error in the simulated instrument response. A proton energy spectrum is also computed from data taken during the 8 January 2014 solar event, to illustrate methods for the simpler case of an isotropic and homogeneous model distribution. Radiation belt and solar proton results are compared to intensities computed with a simplified, on-axis response that can provide a good approximation under limited circumstances.

Selesnick, R. S.↗
DOE OSTI2014

Improving Thermal Model Prediction Through Statistical Analysis of Irradiation and Post-Irradiation Data from AGR Experiments

As part of the High Temperature Reactors (HTR) R&D program, a series of irradiation tests, designated as Advanced Gas-cooled Reactor (AGR), have been defined to support development and qualification of fuel design, fabrication process, and fuel performance under normal operation and accident conditions. The AGR tests employ fuel compacts placed in a graphite cylinder shrouded by a steel capsule and instrumented with thermocouples (TC) embedded in graphite blocks enabling temperature control. While not possible to obtain by direct measurements in the tests, crucial fuel conditions (e.g., temperature, neutron fast fluence, and burnup) are calculated using core physics and thermal modeling codes. This paper is focused on AGR test fuel temperature predicted by the ABAQUS code's finite element-based thermal models. The work follows up on a previous study, in which several statistical analysis methods were adapted, implemented in the NGNP Data Management and Analysis System (NDMAS), and applied for qualification of AGR-1 thermocouple data. Abnormal trends in measured data revealed by the statistical analysis are traced to either measuring instrument deterioration or physical mechanisms in capsules that may have shifted the system thermal response. The main thrust of this work is to exploit the variety of data obtained in irradiation and post-irradiation examination (PIE) for assessment of modeling assumptions. As an example, the uneven reduction of the control gas gap in Capsule 5 found in the capsule metrology measurements in PIE helps identify mechanisms other than TC drift causing the decrease in TC readings. This suggests a more physics-based modification of the thermal model that leads to a better fit with experimental data, thus reducing model uncertainty and increasing confidence in the calculated fuel temperatures of the AGR-1 test.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Probabilistic measures for biological adaptation and resilience

This paper introduces an approach to quantifying ecological resilience in biological systems, particularly focusing on noisy systems responding to episodic disturbances with sudden adaptations. Incorporating concepts from nonequilibrium statistical mechanics, we propose a measure termed “ecological resilience through adaptation,” specifically tailored to noisy, forced systems that undergo physiological adaptation in the face of stressful environmental changes. Randomness plays a key role, accounting for model uncertainty and the inherent variability in the dynamical response among components of biological systems. Our measure of resilience is rooted in the probabilistic description of states within these systems and is defined in terms of the dynamics of the ensemble average of a model-specific observable quantifying success or well-being. Our approach utilizes stochastic linear response theory to compute how the expected success of a system, originally in statistical equilibrium, dynamically changes in response to a environmental perturbation and a subsequent adaptation. Importantly, the resulting mathematical derivations allow for the estimation of resilience in terms of ensemble averages of simulated or experimental data. Finally, through a simple but clear conceptual example, we illustrate how our resilience measure can be interpreted and compared to other existing frameworks in the literature. The methodology is general but inspired by applications in plant systems, with the potential for broader application to complex biological processes.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1993

Multivariable control of the Space Shuttle Remote Manipulator System using linearization by state feedback

This thesis develops and demonstrates an approach to nonlinear control system design using linearization by state feedback. The design provides improved transient response behavior allowing faster maneuvering of payloads by the SRMS. Modeling uncertainty is accounted for by using a second feedback loop designed around the feedback linearized dynamics. A classical feedback loop is developed to provide the easy implementation required for the relatively small on board computers. Feedback linearization also allows the use of higher bandwidth model based compensation in the outer loop, since it helps maintain stability in the presence of the nonlinearities typically neglected in model based designs.

Gettman, Chang-Ching LO↗
NASA NTRS2015

Early Operations Flight Correlation of the Lunar Laser Communications Demonstration (LLCD) on the Lunar Atmosphere and Dust Environment Explorer (LADEE)

The Lunar Atmosphere and Dust Environment Explorer (LADEE) mission launched on September 7, 2013 with a one month cruise before lunar insertion. The LADEE spacecraft is a power limited, octagonal, composite bus structure with solar panels on all eight sides with four vertical segments per side and 2 panels dedicated to instruments. One of these panels has the Lunar Laser Communications Demonstration (LLCD), which represents a furthering of the laser communications technology demonstration proved out by the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO). LLCD increases the bandwidth of communication to and from the moon with less mass and power than LROs technology demonstrator. The LLCD Modem and Controller boxes are mounted to an internal cruciform composite panel and have no dedicated radiator. The thermal design relies on power cycling of the boxes and radiation of waste heat to the inside of the panels, which then reject the heat when facing cold space. The LADEE mission includes a slow roll and numerous attitudes to accommodate the challenging thermal requirements for all the instruments on board. During the cruise phase, the internal Modem and Controller avionics for LLCD were warmer than predicted by more than modeling uncertainty would suggest. This caused concern that if the boxes were considerably warmer than expected while off, they would also be warmer when operating and could limit the operational time when in lunar orbit. The thermal group at Goddard Space Flight Center evaluated the models and design for these critical avionics for LLCD. Upon receipt of the spacecraft models and audit was performed and data was collected from the flight telemetry to perform a sanity check of the models and to correlate to flight where possible. This paper describes the efforts to correlate the model to flight data and to predict the thermal performance when in lunar orbit and presents some lessons learned.

LADEE↗
DOE OSTI2018

Improvement of a mixture experiment model relating the component proportions to the size of nanonized itraconazole particles in extemporary suspensions

A paper by Foglio Bonda et al. published previously in this journal (2016, Vol. 83, pp. 175–183) discussed the use of mixture experiment design and modeling methods to study how the proportions of three components in an extemporaneous oral suspension affected the mean diameter of drug particles (Z ave ). The three components were itraconazole (ITZ), Tween 20 (TW20), and Methocel® E5 (E5). This commentary addresses some errors and other issues in the previous paper, and also discusses an improved model relating proportions of ITZ, TW20, and E5 to Z ave . The improved model contains six of the 10 terms in the full-cubic mixture model, which were selected using a different cross-validation procedure than used in the previous paper. In conclusion, compared to the four-term model presented in the previous paper, the improved model fit the data better, had excellent cross-validation performance, and the predicted Z ave of a validation point was within model uncertainty of the measured value.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗
NASA NTRS1979

Probable LAGEOS contributions to a worldwide geodynamics control network

The paper describes simulations performed on the contributions which LAGEOS laser ranging data can make to the establishment of a worldwide geodynamics control network. A distribution of 10 fixed ranging stations was assumed for most of the calculations, and a single 7-day arc was used, measurements assumed to be made every 10 minutes in order to avoid artificial reductions in the uncertainties due to oversampling. Computer simulations were carried out in which the coordinates of the stations and improvements in the gravity field coefficients were solved for simultaneously. It is suggested that good accuracy for station coordinates can be expected, even with the present gravity field model uncertainties, if sufficient measurement accuracy is achieved at a reasonable distribution of stations. Further, it is found that even 2-cm range measurement errors would be likely to be the main source of station coordinate errors in retrospective analyses of LAGEOS ranging results five or six years from now.

Bender, P. L.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Evaluation of Automotive Grade Resistors for Space Flight

Over the past decade, electronic, electrical, and electromechanical (EEE) parts for space applications have undergone significant changes, largely driven by CubeSat and commercial space developers pushing the boundaries on the utilization of commercial parts in space. Global product shortages and shipping delays are still impacting space flight project deadlines. Many projects have turned to automotive grade resistors as an alternate to their MILSPEC counterparts to fulfill requirements. In addition, automotive grade resistors may offer designers a wider range of parts to consider. A recent NASA study recommended the use of high-volume manufactured commercial components for space applications provided these components show evidence of stringent fabrication controls and thorough reliability monitoring practices. Automotive grade components have stringent qualification requirements per the Automotive Electronic Council (AEC). However, the end user usually does not have insight into the practices the manufacturer may use to reduce/eliminate infant mortality nor for compliance to all datasheet specifications. Screening, Life and Accelerated Life testing on a set of standard automotive-grade chip resistors is proposed to evaluate the reliability of these components. Requirements from both the AEC-Q (Automotive Electronic Council Qualification) and EEE-INST-002 (Instructions for EEE Parts Selection, Screening, Qualification, and Derating) for resistors is compared and discussed. The resistors have been tested by using a modified methodology from EEEINST-002 to evaluate their reliability for space flight projects. The findings of this study indicate that the underlying degradation mechanisms at rated temperature and power are best represented by power law models with a fitted exponent between 0 and 1. A linear model is more conservative which compensates for potential model uncertainty given the wide range of design and materials used in automotive resistors, while still providing useful long-term resistance drift estimates. No electrical anomalies or failures were observed throughout the 1000-hour Life Tests other than small in tolerance resistance drift aging. Degradation models were utilized to quantify and extrapolate the long-term resistance drift under operating conditions for the components. The models demonstrated that some automotive-grade resistors are likely to operate 10 years at nominal usage conditions while others might fail earlier.

Zainab Abdullahi↗
DOE OSTI2015

A GLOBAL MODEL OF THE LIGHT CURVES AND EXPANSION VELOCITIES OF TYPE II-PLATEAU SUPERNOVAE

We present a new self-consistent and versatile method that derives photospheric radius and temperature variations of Type II-Plateau supernovae based on their expansion velocities and photometric measurements. We apply the method to a sample of 26 well-observed, nearby supernovae with published light curves and velocities. We simultaneously fit ∼230 velocity and ∼6800 mag measurements distributed over 21 photometric passbands spanning wavelengths from 0.19 to 2.2 μm. The light-curve differences among the Type II-Plateau supernovae are well modeled by assuming different rates of photospheric radius expansion, which we explain as different density profiles of the ejecta, and we argue that steeper density profiles result in flatter plateaus, if everything else remains unchanged. The steep luminosity decline of Type II-Linear supernovae is due to fast evolution of the photospheric temperature, which we verify with a successful fit of SN 1980K. Eliminating the need for theoretical supernova atmosphere models, we obtain self-consistent relative distances, reddenings, and nickel masses fully accounting for all internal model uncertainties and covariances. We use our global fit to estimate the time evolution of any missing band tailored specifically for each supernova, and we construct spectral energy distributions and bolometric light curves. We produce bolometric corrections for all filter combinations in our sample. We compare our model to the theoretical dilution factors and find good agreement for the B and V filters. Our results differ from the theory when the I, J, H, or K bands are included. We investigate the reddening law toward our supernovae and find reasonable agreement with standard R{sub V}∼3.1 reddening law in UBVRI bands. Results for other bands are inconclusive. We make our fitting code publicly available.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Evaluation of Automotive Grade Resistors for Space Flight

Over the past decade, electronic, electrical, and electromechanical (EEE) parts for space applications have undergone significant changes, largely driven by CubeSat and commercial space developers pushing the boundaries on the utilization of commercial parts in space. Global product shortages and shipping delays are still impacting space flight project deadlines. Many projects have turned to automotive grade resistors as an alternate to their MIL-SPEC counterparts to fulfill requirements. In addition, automotive grade resistors may offer designers a wider range of parts to consider. A recent NASA study recommended the use of high-volume manufactured commercial components for space applications provided these components show evidence of stringent fabrication controls and thorough reliability monitoring practices [1]. Automotive grade components have stringent qualification requirements per the Automotive Electronic Council (AEC). However, the end user usually does not have insight into the practices the manufacturer may use to reduce/eliminate infant mortality nor for compliance to all datasheet specifications. Screening, Life and Accelerated Life testing on a set of standard automotive-grade chip resistors is proposed to evaluate the reliability of these components. Requirements from both the AEC-Q (Automotive Electronic Council Qualification) and EEE-INST-002 (Instructions for EEE Parts Selection, Screening, Qualification, and Derating) for resistors is compared and discussed. The resistors have been tested by using a modified methodology from EEE-INST-002 to evaluate their reliability for space flight projects. The findings of this study indicate that the underlying degradation mechanisms at rated temperature and power are best represented by power law models with a fitted exponent between 0 and 1. A linear model is more conservative which compensates for potential model uncertainty given the wide range of design and materials used in automotive resistors, while still providing useful long-term resistance drift estimates. No electrical anomalies or failures were observed throughout the 1,000-hour Life Tests other than small in tolerance resistance drift aging. Degradation models were utilized to quantify and extrapolate the long-term resistance drift under operating conditions for the components. The models demonstrated that some automotive-grade resistors are likely to operate 10 years at nominal usage conditions while others might fail earlier.

Zainab Abdullahi↗
DOE OSTI2014

Uncertainties in Astrophysical β-decay Rates from the FRDM

β{sup −}-decay rates are of crucial importance in stellar evolution and nucleosynthesis, as they are a key component in stellar processes. Tabulated values of the decay rates as functions of both temperature T and density ρ are necessary input to stellar evolution codes such as MESA, or largescale nucleosynthesis simulations such as those performed by the NuGrid collaboration. Therefore, it is interesting to know the uncertainties in these rates and the effects of these uncertainties on stellar structure and isotopic yields. We have calculated β-strength functions and reaction rates for nuclei ranging from {sup 16}O to {sup 339}136, extending from the proton drip line to the neutron drip line based on a quasi-particle random-phase approximation (QRPA) in a deformed folded-Yukawa single-particle model. Q values are determined from the finite-range droplet mass model (FRDM). We have investigated the effect of model uncertainty on astrophysical β{sup −}-decay rates calculated by the FRDM. The sources of uncertainty considered are Q values and deformation. The rates and their uncertainties are generated for a variety of temperature and density ranges, corresponding to key stellar processes. We demonstrate the effects of these rate uncertainties on isotopic abundances using the NuGrid network calculations.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2008

The X-43A Six Degree of Freedom Monte Carlo Analysis

This report provides an overview of the Hyper-X research vehicle Monte Carlo analysis conducted with the six-degree-of-freedom simulation. The methodology and model uncertainties used for the Monte Carlo analysis are presented as permitted. In addition, the process used to select hardware validation test cases from the Monte Carlo data is described. The preflight Monte Carlo analysis indicated that the X-43A control system was robust to the preflight uncertainties and provided the Hyper-X project an important indication that the vehicle would likely be successful in accomplishing the mission objectives. The X-43A inflight performance is compared to the preflight Monte Carlo predictions and shown to exceed the Monte Carlo bounds in several instances. Possible modeling shortfalls are presented that may account for these discrepancies. The flight control laws and guidance algorithms were robust enough as a result of the preflight Monte Carlo analysis that the unexpected in-flight performance did not have undue consequences. Modeling and Monte Carlo analysis lessons learned are presented.

Baumann, Ethan↗
NASA NTRS1984

Geophysical interpretation of satellite laser ranging measurements of crustal movement in California

As determined by satellite laser ranging the rate of contraction of a 900 kilometer baseline between sites located near Quincy in northern California and San Diego in southern California is about 61 to 65 mm/yr with a formal uncertainty of about 10 mm/yr. The measured changes in baseline length are a manifestation of the relative motion between the North America and Pacific tectonic plates. This long baseline result is compared to measurements made by more conventional means on shorter baselines. Additional information based on seismicity, geology, and theoretical modelling is also analyzed. Deformation lying within a few tens of kilometers about the major faults in southern California accounts for most, but not all of the observed motion. Further motion is attributable to a broader scale deformation in southern California. Data suggesting crustal movements north of the Garlock fault, in and near the southern Sierra Nevada and local motion at an observatory are also critically reviewed. The best estimates of overall motion indicated by ground observations lie between 40 and 60 mm/yr. This lies within one or two standard deviations of that deduced by satellite ranging but the possibility of some unresolved deficit cannot be dismissed. The long time scale RM2 plate tectonic model of Minster and Jordan predicts a contraction between 47 and 53 mm/yr depending on the extension rate of the Basin and Range. Thus the ground based observations, satellite laser ranging (SLR) results, and RM2 rates differ at about the 10 mm/yr level and are consistent with one another within the data and model uncertainties.

Cohen, S. C.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Failure detection with uncertain models

In this paper the author considers the issue of robust failure detection. In one way or another all failure detection methods generate signals which tend to highlight the presence of particular failures if they have actually occurred. However, if any model uncertainties have effects on the observables which are at all like those of one or more of the failure modes, these will also be accentuated. Consequently the problem of robust failure detection is concerned with generating signals which are maximally sensitive to some effects (failures) and minimally sensitive to other (model errors). Previously announced in STAR as N83-32417

Lou, X.-C.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Probabilistic and Possibilistic Analyses of the Strength of a Bonded Joint

The effects of uncertainties on the predicted strength of a single lap shear joint are examined. Probabilistic and possibilistic methods are used to account for uncertainties. A total of ten variables are assumed to be random, with normal distributions. Both Monte Carlo Simulation and the First Order Reliability Method are used to determine the probability of failure. Triangular membership functions with upper and lower bounds located at plus or minus three standard deviations are used to model uncertainty in the possibilistic analysis. The alpha cut (or vertex) method is used to evaluate the possibility of failure. Linear and geometrically nonlinear finite element analyses are used calculate the response of the joint; fracture in the adhesive and material strength failure in the strap are used to evaluate its strength. Although probabilistic and possibilistic analyses provide significantly more information than do conventional deterministic analyses, they are computationally expensive. A novel scaling approach is developed and used to substantially reduce the computational cost of the probabilistic and possibilistic analyses. The possibilistic approach for treating uncertainties appears to be viable during the conceptual and preliminary design stages when limited data are available and high accuracies are not needed. However, this viability is mixed with several cautions that are discussed herein.

Stroud, W. Jefferson↗
NASA NTRS2007

The X-43A Six Degree of Freedom Monte Carlo Analysis

This report provides an overview of the Hyper-X research vehicle Monte Carlo analysis conducted with the six-degree-of-freedom simulation. The methodology and model uncertainties used for the Monte Carlo analysis are presented as permitted. In addition, the process used to select hardware validation test cases from the Monte Carlo data is described. The preflight Monte Carlo analysis indicated that the X-43A control system was robust to the preflight uncertainties and provided the Hyper-X project an important indication that the vehicle would likely be successful in accomplishing the mission objectives. The X-43A in-flight performance is compared to the preflight Monte Carlo predictions and shown to exceed the Monte Carlo bounds in several instances. Possible modeling shortfalls are presented that may account for these discrepancies. The flight control laws and guidance algorithms were robust enough as a result of the preflight Monte Carlo analysis that the unexpected in-flight performance did not have undue consequences. Modeling and Monte Carlo analysis lessons learned are presented.

Baumann, Ethan↗