Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Model initialization”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 757 records · Page 42
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Characterization of oceanic post-cold frontal clouds and their model representation. Final report

Low-level clouds are ubiquitous over the oceans, and their impact on the Earth’ radiative budget is important. However, general circulation models (GCMs) that are used to represent our climate and its evolution still experience problems to represent their correct amount and radiative impact. In the extratropical latitudes (~30-60 N/S), cloud properties are strongly modulated by the occurrence of anti-cyclones (high pressure systems) and cyclones (low pressure systems). While deep clouds dominate in cyclones near the center and along the cold and warm fronts, low-level clouds populate the colder regions of the cyclones, and more specifically the region in the wake of the cold fronts, the post-cold frontal region (PCF). The GCMs mentioned above were found to underestimate the amount of these PCF clouds, and this caused errors in their representation of the amount of solar radiation at the surface of the southern hemisphere oceans, causing an excess in absorption and errors in long-term predictions. To better understand which processes are ill-represented in the GCMs to cause such issues, we used ground-based observations from the Eastern North Atlantic (ENA) ARM site and a high resolution regional model (called WRF) to examine the properties of PCF clouds. With the WRF model, we simulated the passage of a cold front at the ENA site using theoretically distinct representations of convection and the physics of the boundary layer. While these physical representations had little impact on the timing, structure and circulation of the cold front, we found a high sensitivity to how the large scale information was fed into the model. Errors rapidly developed if the incoming flow information was injected too far from the site, but 1000 km was found to be an optimal distance between the outer boundary and the ENA site for a realistic cold front passage. With this model, we then conducted a series of experiment where convection and boundary layer schemes were changed, and revealed that 1) the clouds were more sensitive to the convection than boundary layer schemes and 2) the interaction between the two has a large impact. Furthermore, changing the representation of the physics in the model had greater impacts on PCF clouds than changing the initial conditions. As large-scale models increase their spatial resolution, convection will eventually be resolved but it remains that their representation of the physics of the boundary layer will matter for the correct representation of shallow (low-level) clouds. Observations were used to find which large-scale information had a clear relationship with PCF cloud and precipitation properties, in view of helping with GCM parameterizations and evaluation. Both lower troposphere stability and surface forcing were found to be important for PCF clouds that experience more vigorous dynamics than their tropical or subtropical counterparts. For cloud base and top heights, a simple measure of the change in potential temperature between the surface and the 800 hPa was found to be a good predictor. This relationship was found to hold as well when using data from campaigns recently conducted in the southern ocean south of Tasmania. A recent GCM was found to succeed in representing similar relations. For cloud depth, water content, and different characteristics of precipitation both the temperature contrast between the surface and near-air and the near-surface wind speed had a strong relationship. To summarize, through observational constraints and regional model experiments, the project has provided guidance to evaluate GCMs and tools to improve their representation of low-level clouds in the extratropics. It has also highlighted differences in behavior between these clouds and those typically found in the subtropics, thus opening new avenues of research for shallow clouds in general.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Advective gas flow in bentonite: Development and comparison of enhanced multi-phase numerical approaches

Understanding the impact of repository gas, generated from degradation of waste and its interaction with the host rock, is essential when assessing the performance and safety function of long-term disposal systems for radioactive waste. Numerical models based on conventional multi-phase flow theory have historically been applied to predict the outcome and impact of gas flow on different repository components. However, they remain unable to describe the full complexity of the physical processes observed in water-saturated experiments (e.g., creation of dilatant pathways) and thus, the development of novel representations for their description is required when assessing fully saturated clay-based systems. This was the primary focus of Task A within the international cooperative project DECOVALEX-2019 (D-2019) and refinement of these approaches is the primary focus of this study (Task B in the current phase of DECOVALEX-2023). This paper summarises development of enhanced numerical representations of key processes and compares the performance of each model against high-quality laboratory test data. Experimental data reveals that gas percolation in water-saturated compacted bentonite is characterised by four key features: (i) a quiescence phase, followed by (ii) the gas breakthrough, which leads to a (iii) peak value, which is then followed by (iv) a negative decay. Three models based on the multiphase flow theory have been developed. These models can provide good initial values and reasonable responses for gas breakthrough (although some of them still predict a too-smooth response). Peak gas pressure values are in general reasonably well captured, although maximum radial stress differences are observed at 48 mm from the base of the sample. Here, numerical peak values of 12.8 MPa are predicted, whereas experimental values are about 11 MPa. These models are also capable of providing a reasonable representation of the negative pressure decay following peak pressure. However, other key specific features (such as the timing of gas breakthrough) still require a better representation. The model simulations and their comparison with experimental data show that these models need to be further improved with respect to model parameter calibration, the numerical representation of spatial heterogeneities in material properties and flow localisation, and the upscaling of the related physical processes and parameters. To further understand gas flow localisation, a new conceptual model has been developed, which shows that discrete channels can possibly be induced through the instability of gas-bentonite interface during gas injection, thus providing a new perspective for modeling gas percolation in low-permeability deformable media.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

NEA HTTR LOFC Project Test#3 Benchmark Results

In the second half of FY23, the High Temperature Engineering Test Reactor (HTTR) Loss Of Forced Cooling (LOFC)#3 data for the 9 MW test case with Vessel Cooling System (VCS) off were made available through the Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) LOFC project framework; the neutronic model developed for the initial test (LOFC#1) achieved a satisfactory level of maturity, demonstrating its accuracy in predicting power evolution and core re-criticality, but LOFC#3 should be used primarily to investigate thermal hydraulic phenomena, as the reactor was shut down prematurely due to overheating in the upper reactor components, which prevented re-criticality; this report focuses on advancing the HTTR thermal hydraulic model to accurately simulate the LOFC#3 scenario, including simulating the LOFC#3 benchmark and generating the corresponding benchmark specifications, aiming to ensure consistency across participant models and provide essential data for future participants, including private industry stakeholders seeking to validate their computational tools.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Leveraging Triphenylphosphine-Containing Polymers to Explore Design Principles for Protein-Mimetic Catalysts

Complex interactions between noncoordinating residues are significant yet commonly overlooked components of macromolecular catalyst function. While these interactions have been demonstrated to impact binding affinities and catalytic rates in metalloenzymes, the roles of similar structural elements in synthetic polymeric catalysts remain underexplored. Using a model Suzuki–Miyuara cross-coupling reaction, we performed a series of systematic studies to probe the interconnected effects of metal–ligand cross-links, electrostatic interactions, and local rigidity in polymer catalysts. To achieve this, a novel bifunctional triphenylphosphine acrylamide (BisTPPAm) monomer was synthesized and evaluated alongside an analogous monofunctional triphenylphosphine acrylamide (TPPAm). In model copolymer catalysts, increased initial reaction rates were observed for copolymers untethered by Pd complexation (BisTPPAm-containing) compared to Pd-cross-linked catalysts (TPPAm-containing). Further, incorporating local rigidity through secondary structure-like and electrostatic interactions revealed nonmonotonic relationships between composition and the reaction rate, demonstrating the potential for tunable behavior through secondary-sphere interactions. Lastly, through rigorous cheminformatics featurization strategies and statistical modeling, we quantitated relationships between chemical descriptors of the substrate and reaction conditions on catalytic performance. Collectively, these results provide insights into relationships among the composition, structure, and function of protein-mimetic catalytic copolymers.

Catalysts↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Bayesian Deep Learning Approach to Near-Term Climate Prediction

Since model bias and associated initialization shock are serious shortcomings that reduce prediction skills in state-of-the-art decadal climate prediction efforts, we pursue a complementary machine-learning-based approach to climate prediction. The example problem setting we consider consists of predicting natural variability of the North Atlantic sea surface temperature on the interannual timescale in the pre-industrial control simulation of the Community Earth System Model. While previous works have considered the use of recurrent networks such as convolutional LSTMs and reservoir computing networks in this and other similar problem settings, we currently focus on the use of feedforward convolutional networks. In particular, we find that a feedforward convolutional network with a Densenet architecture is able to outperform a convolutional LSTM in terms of predictive skill. Next, we go on to consider a probabilistic formulation of the same network based on Stein variational gradient descent and find that in addition to providing useful measures of predictive uncertainty, the probabilistic (Bayesian) version improves on its deterministic counterpart in terms of predictive skill. Finally, we characterize the reliability of the ensemble of machine learning models obtained in the probabilistic setting by using analysis tools developed in the context of ensemble numerical weather prediction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

On the Fidelity of Computational Models for the Flow of Milled Loblolly Pine: A Benchmark Study on Continuum-Mechanics Models and Discrete-Particle Models

The upstream of bioenergy industry has suffered from unreliable operations of granular biomass feedstocks in handling equipment. Computational modeling, including continuum-mechanics models and discrete-particle models, offers insightful understandings and predictive capabilities on the flow of milled biomass and can assist equipment design and optimization. This paper presents a benchmark study on the fidelity of the continuum and discrete modeling approaches for predicting granular biomass flow. We first introduce the constitutive law of the continuum-mechanics model and the contact law of the coarse-grained discrete-particle model, with model parameters calibrated against laboratory characterization tests of the milled loblolly pine. Three classical granular material flow systems (i.e., a lab-scale rotating drum, a pilot-scale hopper, and a full-scale inclined plane) are then simulated using the two models with the same initial and boundary conditions as the physical experiments. The close agreement of the numerical predictions with the experimental measurements on the hopper mass flow rate, the hopper critical outlet width, the material stopping thickness on the inclined plane, and the dynamic angle of repose, clearly indicates that the two methods can capture the critical flow behavior of granular biomass. The qualitative comparison shows that the continuum-mechanics model outperforms in parameterization of materials and wall friction, and large-scale systems, while the discrete-particle model is more preferred for discontinuous flow systems at smaller scales. Industry stakeholders can use these findings as guidance for choosing appropriate numerical tools to model biomass material flow in part of the optimization of material handling equipment in biorefineries.

Jin, Wencheng↗
DOE OSTI2024

Image-Based Fracture Surface Defect Characterization Methods for Additively Manufactured Ti-6Al-4V Tested in Fatigue

Abstract Fatigue initiation in additively manufactured samples/parts often occurs at processed-induced defects such as lack-of-fusion (LoF), keyhole, or other morphological/microstructural defects that have unique characteristics and measurable qualities. Attempts at identifying and minimizing such defects have utilized optimized processing conditions along with in situ and ex situ characterization that includes metallography and/or X-ray computed tomography (XCT). This paper highlights the benefits of using fracture surface analyses to detect and quantify defects that may not be detected by metallography/XCT due to sectioning and resolution limits. In addition to using manual quantification of fatigue initiating LoF and keyhole defects on fracture surfaces, image-based machine learning using convolutional neural networks such as U-Net were also used to automate the process. Statistical analyses were used to identify the extreme cases of defects that initiated and accelerated fatigue and to model the distribution of defect size and shape characteristics to distinguish the type of defect. Initial results show agreement between trained machine learning models and ground truth data in defect segmentation, and the distributions of defect characteristics are distinguishable to particular process-induced defect types.

Materials Science↗
DOE OSTI2019

Numerical Integration of Viscoelastic Models

Accurate modeling of viscoelasticity remains an important consideration for a variety of materials (e.g. polymers and inorganic glasses). As such, over the previous decades a substantial body of work has been dedicated to developing appropriate constitutive models for viscoelasticity ranging from initial considerations of linear thermoviscoelasticity to more complex non-linear formulations incorporating fictive temperatures or potential energy clocks including the use of both internal state variable(ISV) and hereditary integral representations. Nonetheless, relatively limited (in comparison to plasticity) attention has been paid to the numerical integration of such schemes. In terms of integral based formulations, Taylor et al. first considered the problem of the integration of a linear viscoelasticity model. That work focused on the integration of the hereditary integrals and demonstrated improved performance of the new scheme with a custom finite element code over an existing finite difference reference. Chambers and Becker, using a free volume based shift factor, also considered the integration of the hereditary integrals and the impact on the problem of a pressurized thick-walled cylinder and developed an adaptive scheme to bound the error. Chambers later developed three-point Gauss and composite integration schemes for the hereditary integrals and noted improved accuracy. With respect to ISV-based schemes, formulations for the non-linear Schapery model have been proposed. However, in those efforts greater attention was paid to convergence of the non-linear solution scheme than impact of numerical integration. Various authors (e.g. Holzapfel and Simo and Hughes) have also studied the use of convolution integrals with differential forms of ISVs for temperature-independent formulations. Regardless, while the "potential energy clock" (PEC) and "simplified potential energy clock"(SPEC) models have been used to study a variety of non-linear responses (e.g.), limited attention has been paid to the numerical performance. As will be discussed later, the "clock" at the center of the formulations includes temperature and complex history dependence making the numerical integration of such a model even more challenging. Thus, in the current work an initial effort towards characterizing the numerical integration of the constitutive model through simplified problems is performed. To that end, in Section 2 the theory of the model is briefly presented while the numerical integration is discussed in Section 3. Results of various studies characterizing the numerical behavior and performance are then given in Section 4. Finally, some concluding remarks and thoughts for follow on works are provided in Section 5.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

LOCOMOTIVES - Comprehensive Impact and Cost Assessment Framework of Carbon Lowering Approaches for the US Rail Freight System

The goal of this project is to develop a tool to aid railroads and other stakeholders assess and approach the decarbonization of freight rail operations by identifying new, viable low-carbon energy storage and conversion systems for future locomotive systems and how they should be deployed on the existing US freight rail network. In the first quarter, the project focused on collecting data, establishing a simulation workflow, and engaging industry through the creation of the Industry Advisory Board (IAB). In the second quarter, the project focused on selecting fuel pathways and powertrain technologies, setting performance targets, conducting a techno-economic analyses, and developing the simulation framework that would serve as the backbone of the future toolhead. The third quarter involved developing an industry-oriented interactive dashboard powered by a five-step sequential framework, as well as holding industry advisory board meetings as per the initial technology-to-market plan. In the remaining project quarters, the NUFRIEND dashboard were fine-tuned with the help of IAB member feedback and in-depth scenario analyses were conducted to support the techno-economic analysis of energy sources. Additionally, dashboard documentation, project insights, and open-source code on GitHub were prepared and released. Throughout the project, the team completed testing and analysis of all model components, integrated all initial test scenarios, and conducted stakeholder engagement. Lower-carbon drop-in fuels can be deployed as admixtures and are considered uniform across the network at a desired penetration rate, while hydrogen and battery-electric technology deployment poses a more complex problem as they require significant investments to be made in the siting of refueling/charging facilities and the replacement of locomotive fleets. Thus, strategies for locating and sizing refueling/charging facilities on a railroad’s network to meet their energy demands were developed to inform deployment decisions. To address this challenge, the Northwestern University Freight Rail Infrastructure & Energy Network Decarbonization (NUFRIEND) framework presents a five-step sequential framework to select O-D paths, locate facilities, reroute flows, size facilities, and evaluate the deployment for alternative energy sources that require locomotive powertrains to be converted and new refueling infrastructure to be deployed. The NUFRIEND Framework is an industry-oriented tool for simulating the deployment of new energy technologies across the US freight rail network. The framework provides a comprehensive network-level optimization and scenario simulation tool for decarbonizing the freight rail sector, addressing the uncertainties surrounding technological developments by supporting sensitivity analyses for different operational and technological parameters through a transparent and flexible input module. It offers practical alternatives to diesel locomotives and can be applied for any railroad considering the specific network structure and freight demand, outputting evaluation metrics for the associated emissions and costs relative to diesel operations. A number of relevant simulation scenarios were run and analyzed for key insights on the value of different alternative technologies for freight rail decarbonization. The project developments and findings have been presented at numerous conferences and events.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2023

Scalar Co-SIMP dark matter: models and sensitivities

In this work, we present UV completions of the recently proposed number-changing Co-SIMP freeze-out mechanism. In contrast to the standard cannibalistic-type dark matter picture that occurs entirely in the dark sector, the 3 → 2 process setting the relic abundance in this case requires one Standard Model particle in the initial and final states. This prevents the dark sector from overheating and leads to rich experimental signatures. We generate the Co-SIMP interaction with a dark sector consisting of two scalars, with the mediator coupling to either nucleons or electrons. In either case, the dark matter candidate is naturally light : nucleophilic interactions favor the sub-GeV mass range and leptophilic interactions favor the sub-MeV mass range. Viable thermal models in these lighter mass regimes are particularly intriguing to study at this time, as new developments in low-threshold detector technologies will begin probing this region of parameter space. While particles in the sub-MeV regime can potentially impact light element formation and CMB decoupling, we show that a late-time phase transition opens up large fractions of parameter space. These thermal light dark matter models can instead be tested with dedicated experiments. We discuss the viable parameter space in each scenario in light of the current sensitivity of various experimental probes and projected future reach.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

U.S. Building Stock Characterization Study: A National Typology for Decarbonizing U.S. Buildings

To support the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) Advanced Building Construction (ABC) Collaborative, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) has been tasked with characterizing the U.S. building stock and developing a national typology of buildings. The potential use cases of such a typology are flexible and evolving, but in this initial phase, the primary intention is to help identify technology requirements and engineering solutions for moving the U.S. building stock toward a zero-carbon future by mid-century. This typology will also support the development of appropriate ABC research goals for existing buildings, such as cost targets for new technology development, and in a later phase, the typology can be used to support the implementation of ABC solutions by informing market aggregation and business model development. The ABC Initiative invests in new technologies that enable high building performance, can be deployed quickly with minimal onsite construction time, and are affordable and appealing to building owners, investors, and occupants. Funding awardees use many innovations, including new building materials, 3D printing, offsite manufacturing, robotics, and digital art-to-part. Although the goals of ABC cover a broad range of objectives around energy, comfort, and health, the primary ABC-related application of this national building characterization study is the development of retrofit packages that can be applied to reduce thermal loads in buildings. Retrofit packages will be determined collaboratively by the DOE and the ABC Collaborative. We anticipate a range of upgrade measures covering envelope-, HVAC-, and water-heating-related loads.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2022

SRF Cavity Fault Classification and Prediction at Jefferson Lab

Over the last few years several machine learning projects at Jefferson Lab have had a common focus to optimize operation of superconducting RF (SRF) cavities in the Continuous Electron Beam Accelerator Facility (CEBAF). In this talk we highlight work to identify and classify types of faults from C100-type cavities and then to extend those capabilities to provide real-time fault prediction. Early prediction may enable mitigation strategies to prevent some types of faults. In our approach we apply a two-step fault prediction pipeline. In the first step, a model distinguishes between faulty and normal signals. In the second step, signals flagged as faulty by the first model are classified into one of seven fault types based on learned signatures in the data. Initial results show that our model can successfully predict most fault types 200 ms before onset. In additional to model performance, we also highlight challenges in working with real-world data and challenges for deploying models.

Tennant, C.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Modeling of the Jupiter Lase Facility Using Virtual Beamline ++ (Vbl++) Code

The Jupiter Laser Facility (JLF) at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) is a mid-scale laser facility, with three different laser platforms: Janus (Target Area 1), Titan, and COMET. To help the facility and its users better understand the laser performance, a model of Janus and Titan has been developed using the Virtual Beamline ++ code (VBL++), which was initially developed by LLNL to model the National Ignition Facility beamlines and predict their performance.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Modeling of the TRIGA IPR-R1 research reactor with the Serpent2/RINNOVO Nodal core analysis package

The Serpent2/RINNOVO nodal core analysis code system, a dedicated tool for modeling research reactors, has the capability to accurately predict important core physics parameters involved in the safety of reactor operation, such as various reactivity coefficients, control rod and bank worths including the shutdown margin, power distributions as well as local neutron flux predictions at various core locations of high importance, e.g., at irradiation rigs. In this work, a hexagonal model of the unrodded initial core of the Brazilian IPR-R1 Mark I type TRIGA nuclear reactor has been created using the Serpent2/RINNOVO code system. The choice of employing a hexagonal core geometry representation has mainly been made to facilitate subsequent fuel shuffling operations and core follow calculations of this reactor. Numerical results in terms of the core eigenvalue and the assembly power distribution have then been compared against corresponding full core Serpent2 results to prove feasibility of using the Serpent2/RINNOVO code system for modeling small and highly heterogeneous TRIGA reactors. Overall, RINNOVO predicts the power distribution very accurately but the eigenvalue error still remains quite large. In light of being the very first evaluation of a TRIGA reactor with the RINNOVO nodal core simulator, these results are also considered to be very preliminary. Improved accuracy is expected by incorporating a proper methodology in the current code system for computing discontinuity factors for multi-assembly configurations. Furthermore, improved results are expected by increasing the number of energy groups used by RINNOVO in these core calculations.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Causal mechanism of injection-induced earthquakes through the M w 5.5 Pohang earthquake case study

Causal mechanisms for fluid injection-induced earthquakes remain a challenge to identify. Past studies largely established spatiotemporal correlations. Here, we propose a multi-process causal mechanism for injection-induced earthquakes through a case study of the 2017 M w 5.5 induced earthquake near Pohang Enhanced Geothermal System, Korea, where detailed hydraulic stimulation and on-site seismicity monitoring data provide an unprecedented opportunity. Pore pressure modeling reveals that pore pressure changes initiate seismicity on critically stressed faults and Coulomb static stress transfer modeling reveals that earthquake interactions promote continued seismicity, leading to larger events. On the basis of these results, we propose the following causal mechanism for induced seismicity: pore pressure increase and earthquake interactions lead to fault weakening and ultimately triggering larger earthquakes later in the process. We suggest that it is prudent that pore pressure change, initial seismicity locations, and Coulomb static stress transfer from seismicity earlier in the sequence are assessed in real-time.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Update of Residential Load Profile for WECC Load Composition Model Using Cross-Correlation Method

The Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) initiated the development of a composite load model for transmission-level power system simulators. To more precisely utilize the model to represent the power consumption pattern for various locations of the WECC network, an up-to-date load composition dataset is required. The study in this paper aims to reconstruct the residential sector of the load composition model (LCM) dataset using latest survey or measurement data. The LCM residential dataset contains load profiles for twelve climate zones and five season types. The northwest energy efficiency alliance (NEEA) launched a study to generate the load profiles for four climate zones in the Pacific Northwest. Based on the NEEA database, a component-wise cross-correlation-based approach has been developed in this paper to update the obsolete residential load profiles of the four pacific northwest climate zones and populate the new load shape data into the other eight climate zones.

Liu, Yuan↗
DOE OSTI2024

Report on the sensitivity kernel construction and updating the SPiRaL model with waveform data

The WAVEFORMS Initiative in the Ground-based Nuclear Detonation Detection (GNDD) program includes research leading towards the prediction of entire seismic and acoustic waveforms produced by natural and manmade events, including explosions. A key aspect of this research is the development of Earth (seismic) models at multiple scales including crustal, regional, and global. The work described here pertains to the global-scale seismic tomography effort led by LLNL.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

An Assessment of the Error Due to Computing Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Porosity Using the Porosity Response Surface Approach

The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Performance Assessment (WIPP PA) must predict the likelihood that radionuclides will escape into the biosphere via mechanisms that depend on geohydraulic flow. Ideally, one would predict the geohydraulic flow using coupled geohydraulic and geomechanical simulations, but such coupled simulations are not computationally tractable. Instead, Sandia has historically used a look-up table of porosities for a given fluid pressure and time, called the porosity response surface, but this approach can introduce porosity errors because it largely ignores the porosity’s dependence on the past fluid pressure history. This report discusses efforts to quantify these porosity errors for both the legacy and new porosity response surfaces. Six hundred different fluid pressure histories were fed through the legacy/new geomechanical model and the legacy/new porosity response surface to generate six hundred porosity error histories. The error associated with the legacy porosity surface was substantial, while the error associated with the new porosity surface was typically small, except when fluid pressures exceeded the lithostatic pressure at the repository. In response to the errors at high pressures, a preliminary study of the WIPP PA’s sensitivity to these porosity errors was conducted. The study found that reducing the porosity errors at high pressures negligibly affected predictions of radionuclide releases. Finally, an initial machine-learned model for porosity was developed. This ML model significantly reduced the porosity error at high pressures, but sizable errors remained, so more development is necessary before coupling an ML model to the geohydraulic model.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗