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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS1988

An analysis of the Kalman filter in the Gamma Ray Observatory (GRO) onboard attitude determination subsystem

The Gamma Ray Observatory (GRO) spacecraft needs a highly accurate attitude knowledge to achieve its mission objectives. Utilizing the fixed-head star trackers (FHSTs) for observations and gyroscopes for attitude propagation, the discrete Kalman Filter processes the attitude data to obtain an onboard accuracy of 86 arc seconds (3 sigma). A combination of linear analysis and simulations using the GRO Software Simulator (GROSS) are employed to investigate the Kalman filter for stability and the effects of corrupted observations (misalignment, noise), incomplete dynamic modeling, and nonlinear errors on Kalman filter. In the simulations, on-board attitude is compared with true attitude, the sensitivity of attitude error to model errors is graphed, and a statistical analysis is performed on the residuals of the Kalman Filter. In this paper, the modeling and sensor errors that degrade the Kalman filter solution beyond mission requirements are studied, and methods are offered to identify the source of these errors.

Snow, Frank↗

DOE OSTI2019

Evaluation and Validation Approaches for Simulation of Social Behavior: Challenges and Opportunities

While models of social systems have grown in scope to represent increasingly complex phenomena, efforts to validate these models against observations suffer from a number of challenges that include the lack of shared approaches, the use of single-dimensional evaluation criteria, and the difficulty in evaluating causal mechanisms. Moreover, current evaluation approaches suffer from sensitivity of the existing measurements to initial conditions and model assumptions, and failure to account for uncertainty. These effects lead to the lack of generalizability to new contexts, inability to replicate the validation approach for new models, and difficulties in interpretation of validation results. These challenges can be addressed by building a set of diverse and robust evaluation metrics and by developing best practices for comparative, reproducible validation of varied social simulation approaches against real-world data. Herein, we outline several best practices for data-drive model validation, such as defining evaluation strategies consistent with the intended use case and defining broad comparison criteria to highlight both model strengths and weaknesses. Leveraging common validation practices will enable robust analysis of simulation performance across diverse social scenarios and modeling approaches.

Saldanha, Emily G.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Statistical analysis of stratospheric temperature and ozone profile data for trends and model comparison

Work performed during the project period July 1, 1990 to June 30, 1992 on the statistical analysis of stratospheric temperature data, rawinsonde temperature data, and ozone profile data for the detection of trends is described. Our principal topics of research are trend analysis of NOAA stratospheric temperature data over the period 1978-1989; trend analysis of rawinsonde temperature data for the period 1964-1988; trend analysis of Umkehr ozone profile data for the period 1977-1991; and comparison of observed ozone and temperature trends in the lower stratosphere. Analysis of NOAA stratospheric temperature data indicates the existence of large negative trends at 0.4 mb level, with magnitudes increasing with latitudes away from the equator. Trend analysis of rawinsonde temperature data over 184 stations shows significant positive trends about 0.2 C per decade at surface to 500 mb range, decreasing to negative trends about -0.3 C at 100 to 50 mb range, and increasing slightly at 30 mb level. There is little evidence of seasonal variation in trends. Analysis of Umkehr ozone data for 12 northern hemispheric stations shows significant negative trends about -.5 percent per year in Umkehr layers 7-9 and layer 3, but somewhat less negative trends in layers 4-6. There is no pronounced seasonal variation in trends, especially in layers 4-9. A comparison was made of empirical temperature trends from rawinsonde data in the lower stratosphere with temperature changes determined from a one-dimensional radiative transfer calculation that prescribed a given ozone change over the altitude region, surface to 50 km, obtained from trend analysis of ozonsonde and Umkehr profile data. The empirical and calculated temperature trends are found in substantive agreement in profile shape and magnitude.

Tiao, G. C.↗

NASA NTRS2022

Natural Language Processing Techniques for Intelligent Knowledge Management of Safety Reports

Safety, failure, and incident reports are common artifacts across various domains, including aviation and wildfire response. These reports are often mandatory to submit, resulting in the culmination of large repositories of text-based documents. Simultaneously, these reports and corresponding repositories are often only manually analyzed and queried by users via out-of-date search engines. As a consequence, we have been developing the Manager for Intelligent Knowledge Access (MIKA) toolkit, which uses natural language processing to improve information access and reuse. In this presentation, we discuss natural language processing techniques for knowledge discovery and apply these methods to a repository of aerial wildfire mishap reports. Two methods are used for knowledge discovery: topic modeling and named-entity recognition. We use topic modeling to identify hazards and perform a trend analysis to produce a data-driven risk matrix. A custom named-entity recognition model, build from fine tuning a pre-trained language model, is used to identify failure modes, failure causes, failure effects, control processes, and recommendations to aid in failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA). Throughout the presentation, we discuss and apply natural language processing techniques to better leverage the vast amount of information contained in report repositories.

Machine learning↗

DOE OSTI2018

Securing against malicious control of circuit breakers in electrical substations

An example method for detecting and mitigating attacks on electric power substations comprises detecting a command to open or close a circuit breaker in the electric power substation. A modified extended substation model for the electric power substation is generated, based on the detected command and based on measurements in substation, where the modified extended substation model is a power flow model for the substation and for one or more directly connected neighboring substations. A power flow analysis is performed, using the modified extended substation model, to generate a predicted voltage for each of a plurality of nodes in the substation and in the one or more directly connected neighboring substations. Each predicted voltage is compared to a corresponding allowable voltage range, and execution of the command is blocked in response to determining that one or more of the voltages is outside the corresponding allowable voltage range.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Securing against malicious control of circuit breakers in electrical substations

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS2016

Integrating Flight Dynamics & Control Analysis and Simulation in Rotorcraft Conceptual Design

The development of a toolset, SIMPLI-FLYD ('SIMPLIfied FLight dynamics for conceptual Design') is described. SIMPLI-FLYD is a collection of tools that perform flight dynamics and control modeling and analysis of rotorcraft conceptual designs including a capability to evaluate the designs in an X-Plane-based real-time simulation. The establishment of this framework is now facilitating the exploration of this new capability, in terms of modeling fidelity and data requirements, and the investigation of which stability and control and handling qualities requirements are appropriate for conceptual design. Illustrative design variation studies for single main rotor and tiltrotor vehicle configurations show sensitivity of the stability and control characteristics and an approach to highlight potential weight savings by identifying over-design.

Integrating Flight Dynamics↗

NASA NTRS2013

Bulk Insolation Models as Predictors for Locations for High Lunar Hydrogen Concentrations

In this study we consider the bulk effects of surface illumination on topography (insolation) and the possible thermodynamic effects on the Moon's hydrogen budget. Insolation is important as one of the dominant loss processes governing distributions of hydrogen volatiles on the Earth, Mars and most recently Mercury. We evaluated three types of high latitude > 65 deg., illumination models that were derived from the Lunar Observing Laser Altimetry (LOLA) digital elevation models (DEM)'s. These models reflect varying accounts of solar flux interactions with the Moon's near-surface. We correlate these models with orbital collimated epithermal neutron measurements made by the Lunar Exploration Neutron Detector (LEND). LEND's measurements derive the Moon's spatial distributions of hydrogen concentration. To perform this analysis we transformed the topographic model into an insolation model described by two variables as each pixels 1) slope and 2) slope angular orientation with respect to the pole. We then decomposed the illumination models and epithermal maps as a function of the insolation model and correlate the datasets.

Hydrogen Concentrations↗

DOE OSTI2025

PSA 2025 Presentation: "Modeling and Sensitivity Analysis of a Generation IV Pebble Bed Reactor Using MELCOR 2.2"

Accompanying the advancement of reactor technologies is the need for computational modeling and simulation to predict their behavior under normal operating conditions and accident scenarios. New Generation IV reactor designs which employ non-conventional fuel have a particular need for modeling the behavior and release of radionuclides and other material from the fuel. In this work, MELCOR version 2.2, a system-level safety and accident scenario code developed by Sandia National Laboratories, was used to model a 200-MWth pebble bed modular reactor and calculate the inventories of circulating and deposited graphite, metal dust, and elemental components released from the fuel elements. A base case modeling the reactor under standard operating conditions was calculated using MELCOR and the inventories were extrapolated to 30 years of operation time using a logarithmic regression fit. A sensitivity analysis was also performed in which several key parameters for the base case model were modified to explore the effect of these changes on the inventories calculated by MELCOR. A set of transient scenario simulations for a depressurized loss of forced cooling (DLOFC) accident were also performed. The results of the sensitivity analysis and transient simulations are reported and discussed in relation to the modeling techniques used for this study.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

NASA NTRS1998

Structural Similitude and Scaling Laws

Aircraft and spacecraft comprise the class of aerospace structures that require efficiency and wisdom in design, sophistication and accuracy in analysis and numerous and careful experimental evaluations of components and prototype, in order to achieve the necessary system reliability, performance and safety. Preliminary and/or concept design entails the assemblage of system mission requirements, system expected performance and identification of components and their connections as well as of manufacturing and system assembly techniques. This is accomplished through experience based on previous similar designs, and through the possible use of models to simulate the entire system characteristics. Detail design is heavily dependent on information and concepts derived from the previous steps. This information identifies critical design areas which need sophisticated analyses, and design and redesign procedures to achieve the expected component performance. This step may require several independent analysis models, which, in many instances, require component testing. The last step in the design process, before going to production, is the verification of the design. This step necessitates the production of large components and prototypes in order to test component and system analytical predictions and verify strength and performance requirements under the worst loading conditions that the system is expected to encounter in service. Clearly then, full-scale testing is in many cases necessary and always very expensive. In the aircraft industry, in addition to full-scale tests, certification and safety necessitate large component static and dynamic testing. Such tests are extremely difficult, time consuming and definitely absolutely necessary. Clearly, one should not expect that prototype testing will be totally eliminated in the aircraft industry. It is hoped, though, that we can reduce full-scale testing to a minimum. Full-scale large component testing is necessary in other industries as well, Ship building, automobile and railway car construction all rely heavily on testing. Regardless of the application, a scaled-down (by a large factor) model (scale model) which closely represents the structural behavior of the full-scale system (prototype) can prove to be an extremely beneficial tool. This possible development must be based on the existence of certain structural parameters that control the behavior of a structural system when acted upon by static and/or dynamic loads. If such structural parameters exist, a scaled-down replica can be built, which will duplicate the response of the full-scale system. The two systems are then said to be structurally similar. The term, then, that best describes this similarity is structural similitude. Similarity of systems requires that the relevant system parameters be identical and these systems be governed by a unique set of characteristic equations. Thus, if a relation or equation of variables is written for a system, it is valid for all systems which are similar to it. Each variable in a model is proportional to the corresponding variable of the prototype. This ratio, which plays an essential role in predicting the relationship between the model and its prototype, is called the scale factor.

Simitses, George J.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Bayesian Adaptive Polynomial Chaos Expansions

Polynomial chaos expansions (PCEs) are widely used for uncertainty quantification (UQ) tasks, particularly in the applied mathematics community. However, PCE has received comparatively less attention in the statistics literature, and fully Bayesian formulations remain rare—especially with implementations in R. Motivated by the success of adaptive Bayesian machine learning models such as BART, BASS and BPPR, we develop a new fully Bayesian adaptive PCE method with an efficient and accessible R implementation: khaos. Our approach includes a novel proposal distribution that enables data-driven interaction selection and supports a modified g-prior tailored to PCE structure. Through simulation studies and real-world UQ applications, we demonstrate that the Bayesian adaptive PCE provides competitive performance for surrogate modeling, global sensitivity analysis and ordinal regression tasks.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2019

The Oxidation Mechanism of Pure Magnesium Powder Particles: A Mathematical Approach

In this study, the mechanism of nonisothermal oxidation of magnesium powder was determined using a tension analysis, which was performed by mathematical modeling and the finite element method. The results revealed that phase transformation of magnesium hydroxide to magnesium oxide in the oxide layer plays an important role in this process so that formation of magnesium hydroxide in the early stages of oxidation (< 450 °C) leads to the formation of compressive stresses through the oxide layer, and as a result, the beginning of measurable oxidation is delayed. The results obtained by the mathematical model and finite element method were validated by the experimental results.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2018

A sensitivity analysis of the columnar-to-equiaxed transition for Ni-based superalloys in electron beam additive manufacturing

Solidification conditions experienced during Selective-Electron Beam Melting (S-EBM) of Nickel-Base superalloys generally lead to epitaxial grain growth from previous layers, resulting in highly textured columnar grain structures, and consequently, highly anisotropic mechanical properties. However, in recent work, researchers have been able to produce equiaxed grain structures by changing the scan strategy to influence the solidification conditions, thereby obtaining isotropic properties. The competition between columnar and equiaxed grain formation is governed by both the local thermal conditions and alloy thermodynamics. The above examples demonstrate successful manipulation of the thermal conditions through changes in process parameters. However, there is no guarantee that process conditions that encourage the formation of equiaxed grains for a given alloy will coincide with the production of defect free material. The goal of this work is therefore to understand the influence of alloy composition on the columnar-to-equiaxed transition (CET) so that alloys may be designed such that grain structure control is accessible to a wider range of S-EBM process conditions. A CET model originally developed by Hunt and extended by Gäumann was used to relate processing conditions to resulting microstructure. A sensitivity analysis of the CET model was performed using the Element Effects Methods. Furthermore, the results lead to a comparison of the relative effects of various alloying additions on the CET, as well as an assessment of other model parameters, including, most significantly, the nucleation density of equiaxed grains.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Optimizing conformance control for gas injection EOR in unconventional reservoirs

Field observations have shown that interference between wells caused by connected fractures commonly exists in unconventional reservoirs. The well interference effect and conformance issues could lead to minimal enhanced oil recovery response (EOR) in actual operations if they are not properly controlled. A series of data analysis, modeling, and experimental activities were performed in this study to investigate the gas EOR strategies in the Bakken Formation. Employing the embedded discrete fracture modeling technology, a multiple-well, multiple-fracture model was developed to capture the well interference and conformance issues in the Bakken. The model made it possible to investigate the complex flow behavior between wells in the EOR (huff ‘n’ puff) processes. Alternative EOR and conformance control strategies using water and surfactant injections were studied to improve oil production performance based on experimental observations. Results showed that water injection could be used for conformance control in the Bakken because of its relatively low mobility compared to gas; however, water could also block oil flow around the conformance control wells because of the high interfacial tension between oil and water. Adding surfactant to the injection water is more effective for improving gas EOR performance since surfactant reduces the oil–water interfacial tension and contact angle effectively. Up to 9.4% more oil could be produced from the huff ‘n’ puff wells in 2 years of EOR operations when rich gas was injected at only 3 MMscf/d with 6000 psi of surfactant injection in the offset wells for conformance control.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Structural studies of the IFNλ4 receptor complex using cryoEM enabled by protein engineering

Abstract IFNλ4 has posed a conundrum in human immunology since its discovery in 2013, with its expression linked to complications with viral clearance. While genetic and cellular studies revealed the detrimental effects of IFNλ4 expression, extensive structural and functional characterization has been limited by the inability to express and purify the protein, complicating explanations of its paradoxical behavior. In this work, we report a method for robust production of IFNλ4. We then use yeast surface display to affinity-mature IL10Rβ and solve the 72 kilodalton structures of IFNλ4 (3.26 Å) and IFNλ3 (3.00 Å) in complex with their receptors IFNλR1 and IL10Rβ using cryogenic electron microscopy. Comparison of the structures highlights differences in receptor engagement and reveals a distinct 12-degree rotation in overall receptor geometry, providing a potential mechanistic explanation for differences in cell signaling, downstream gene induction, and antiviral activities. Further, we perform a structural analysis using molecular modeling and simulation to identify a unique region of IFNλ4 that, when replaced, enables secretion of the protein from cells. These findings provide a structural and functional understanding of the IFNλ4 protein and enable future comprehensive studies towards correcting IFNλ4 dysfunction in large populations of affected patients.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

DOE OSTI2017

Prospects for distinguishing dark matter models using annual modulation

It has recently been demonstrated that, in the event of a putative signal in dark matter direct detection experiments, properly identifying the underlying dark matter-nuclei interaction promises to be a challenging task. Given the most optimistic expectations for the number counts of recoil events in the forthcoming Generation 2 experiments, differentiating between interactions that produce distinct features in the recoil energy spectra will only be possible if a strong signal is observed simultaneously on a variety of complementary targets. However, there is a wide range of viable theories that give rise to virtually identical energy spectra, and may only differ by the dependence of the recoil rate on the dark matter velocity. In this work, we investigate how degeneracy between such competing models may be broken by analyzing the time dependence of nuclear recoils, i.e. the annual modulation of the rate. For this purpose, we simulate dark matter events for a variety of interactions and experiments, and perform a Bayesian model-selection analysis on all simulated data sets, evaluating the chance of correctly identifying the input model for a given experimental setup. Lastly, we find that including information on the annual modulation of the rate may significantly enhance the ability of a single target to distinguish dark matter models with nearly degenerate recoil spectra, but only with exposures beyond the expectations of Generation 2 experiments.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2019

Dark Energy Survey Year 1 Results: Cross-correlation between Dark Energy Survey Y1 galaxy weak lensing and South Pole Telescope + P l a n c k CMB weak lensing

We cross-correlate galaxy weak lensing measurements from the Dark Energy Survey (DES) year-one data with a cosmic microwave background (CMB) weak lensing map derived from South Pole Telescope (SPT) and Planck data, with an effective overlapping area of 1289-deg 2 . With the combined measurements from four source galaxy redshift bins, we obtain a detection significance of 5.8σ. We fit the amplitude of the correlation functions while fixing the cosmological parameters to a fiducial ΛCDM model, finding A =0.99±0.17. We also use the correlation function measurements to constrain shear calibration bias, obtaining constraints that are consistent with previous DES analyses. Lastly, when performing a cosmological analysis under the ΛCDM model, we obtain the marginalized constraints of Ω m = 0.261$^{+0.070}_{-0.051}$ and S 8≡σ 8 $\sqrt{Ω_m/0.3}$=0.660$^{+0.085}_{-0.100}$. These measurements are used in a companion work that presents cosmological constraints from the joint analysis of two-point functions among galaxies, galaxy shears, and CMB lensing using DES, SPT, and Planck data.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Big Data Analysis of Massive PMU Datasets: A Data Platform Perspective

The discovery of `event signatures' and useful insights from very large historical Phasor Measurement Unit (PMU) datasets is predicated on offline Big Data analysis approaches that rely on the generation of predictive features on a massive scale. This paper presents lessons learned from a data platform perspective towards reducing barriers to adoption of Big Data analytics against a real dataset of almost half a trillion data points drawn from over 400 PMUs distributed across the North American power grid. We demonstrate software abstractions and targeted performance optimizations that can lead to significant productivity gains for power systems researchers seeking to perform offline exploratory temporal analysis and modeling tasks, with a focus on feature generation. We describe how our optimized approach goes beyond a naive application of mainstream Big Data technologies, enabling feature generation tasks, that previously took days or even weeks, to now be completed in just a few hours.

Kumar, Vijay S.↗