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At least 757 records · Page 42

Bayesian tomography of high-dimensional on-chip biphoton frequency combs with randomized measurements

Abstract Owing in large part to the advent of integrated biphoton frequency combs, recent years have witnessed increased attention to quantum information processing in the frequency domain for its inherent high dimensionality and entanglement compatible with fiber-optic networks. Quantum state tomography of such states, however, has required complex and precise engineering of active frequency mixing operations, which are difficult to scale. To address these limitations, we propose a solution that employs a pulse shaper and electro-optic phase modulator to perform random operations instead of mixing in a prescribed manner. We successfully verify the entanglement and reconstruct the full density matrix of biphoton frequency combs generated from an on-chip Si 3 N 4 microring resonator in up to an 8 × 8-dimensional two-qudit Hilbert space, the highest dimension to date for frequency bins. More generally, our employed Bayesian statistical model can be tailored to a variety of quantum systems with restricted measurement capabilities, forming an opportunistic tomographic framework that utilizes all available data in an optimal way.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Cooperative effect of local active stresses on the macroscopic contractility of elastic fiber networks

The collective action of actively contractile units embedded in elastic biopolymer networks plays a crucial role in regulating the network's macroscopic mechanical response. Here, in this study, we investigate how the macroscopic boundary stress in model elastic fiber networks depends on the number and nature of embedded contractile units, each exerting an isotropic force dipole, as well as on the bending stiffness of fibers. We find that the macroscopic stress increases nonlinearly with the number of dipoles due to mutual stiffening of initially soft, bending-dominated networks. Using effective medium theory, we relate this enhanced contractility to an increase in the effective average network coordination number due to constraints imposed by the force dipoles. By comparing three distinct force dipole models that differ in their local structures, we demonstrate that the specific manner in which an active unit constrains the network strongly influences the onset and nature of the stiffening transition. Our results highlight that not only the quantity but also the local geometry of force-generating units critically determines the macroscopic mechanical behavior. This framework provides a physical basis for understanding how biological systems—such as molecular motors in the cytoskeleton, or adherent cells in the extracellular matrix—can modulate network-scale nonlinear elastic properties through local tuning of active force-generating units.

Biological and medical sciences↗

Identification of Blue Horizontal Branch Stars with Multimodal Fusion

Blue Horizontal Branch stars (BHBs) are ideal tracers to probe the global structure of the milky Way (MW), and the increased size of the BHB star sample could be helpful to accurately calculate the MW's enclosed mass and kinematics. Large survey telescopes have produced an increasing number of astronomical images and spectra. However, traditional methods of identifying BHBs are limited in dealing with the large scale of astronomical data. A fast and efficient way of identifying BHBs can provide a more significant sample for further analysis and research. Therefore, in order to fully use the various data observed and further improve the identification accuracy of BHBs, we have innovatively proposed and implemented a Bi-level attention mechanism-based Transformer multimodal fusion model, called Bi-level Attention in the Transformer with Multimodality (BATMM). The model consists of a spectrum encoder, an image encoder, and a Transformer multimodal fusion module. The Transformer enables the effective fusion of data from two modalities, namely image and spectrum, by using the proposed Bi-level attention mechanism, including cross-attention and self-attention. As a result, the information from the different modalities complements each other, thus improving the accuracy of the identification of BHBs. The experimental results show that the F1 score of the proposed BATMM is 94.78%, which is 21.77% and 2.76% higher than the image and spectral unimodality, respectively. It is therefore demonstrated that higher identification accuracy of BHBs can be achieved by means of using data from multiple modalities and employing an efficient data fusion strategy.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A Modular Optimal Power Flow Method for Integrating New Technologies in Distribution Grids

This work proposes a modular concept to build optimal power flow (OPF) models for distribution networks containing various emerging technologies under diverse ownership structures, to efficiently deal with evolving technology capabilities and information sharing or privacy constraints. This concept will support any typical OPF application (e.g., optimal dispatch of a given asset without violating grid constraints) by coordinating between grid module and technology module without the need to recreate various modeling elements as technology capability changes due to innovation. Moreover, the modularity of the proposed concept enables achieving system level objectives without sharing detailed information on module level objectives and constraints among modules. To achieve this, the proposed work develops a gradient-descent algorithm which builds upon the literature on the state-of-the-art power flow approximation. The proposed concept is demonstrated with two case studies of i) controllable loads and ii) battery energy storage system (BESS) on an actual large-scale distribution grid.

Hanif, Sarmad↗

Development of the multigroup cross section library for the CASL neutronics simulator MPACT: Method and procedure

The MPACT neutronics module of the Consortium for Advanced Simulation of Light Water Reactors (CASL) core simulator is a 3D whole core transport code being developed for the CASL toolset known as the Virtual Environment for Reactor Analysis (VERA). Key characteristics of the MPACT code include a subgroup method for resonance self-shielding and a whole-core transport solver with a 2D/1D synthesis method. The AMPX and SCALE code packages have been significantly improved to include intermediate resonance parameters, as well as new modules to enhance the accuracy of resonance data and scattering matrices for the Bondarenko approach and transport cross sections of hydrogen. In addition, CASL XSTools have been developed to generate the MPACT multigroup cross section library. A simple super-homogenization method for 238U has been developed to resolve reaction rate discrepancy issues caused by angle-dependent total cross sections, poor scattering matrices, and a poor resonance interference model at coarse group structure. Here, due to the limitation of computing capacity that can occur even in high performance computing, a new 51-group structure has been developed for efficient simulation that is applicable for both pressurized water reactor (PWR) and boiling water reactor (BWR) simulations. A new ENDF/B-VII.1 MPACT 51-group library has been developed using the AMPX/SCALE and XSTools code packages, and it has been verified and validated by performing various benchmark calculations.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Effect of CLIQ on Training of HL-LHC Quadrupole Magnets

The high-luminosity LHC upgrade requires stronger than LHC low-beta quadrupole magnets to reach the luminosity goals of the project. The project is well advanced and HL-LHC quadrupole magnets are currently being commissioned in US Labs (MQXFA magnets) and CERN (MQXFB magnets). Those are the first Nb 3 Sn magnets to be used in any large particle accelerator. At development stages, many Nb 3 Sn accelerator sub-scale models showed relatively slow training and MQXFA magnets were projected to have low tens of quenches before reaching operational field. Recently it was shown that dedicated capacitor-based de-vices can affect Nb 3 Sn magnet training, and it was suggested that CLIQ, a capacitor-based device intended for quench protection, can do too. Here, the present paper investigates effects on training likely induced by CLIQ, using the base fact that only half the coils in a quadrupole experience upward current modulation at quench because of capacitor discharge. The study encompasses all MQXFA production magnets trained at BNL to date. No other high-statistics data from identical magnets (series) with CLIQ protection exist so far. Implications and opportunities stemming from data analysis are discussed and conclusions drawn.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Comparisons of ground-based monitor data with Pioneers 8, 9, 10 and 11 observations in 1968-1974

The paper examines ground-based neutron monitor data and the counting rates in different energy channels on the Pioneer 8, 9, 10 and 11 spacecraft to determine the scale size of the transient cosmic-ray variations (Forbush decreases) and the relationship of these variations to changes in the interplanetary magnetic field. Since the Pioneer spacecraft sampled the inner modulating region extensively, the spatial extent of Forbush decreases (Fd's) can be determined. In some cases the Fd modulating region was co-rotating and in others radially expanding. The azimuthal extent of the Fd region was variable but was typically about 45 deg in extent. These observations will be interpreted in terms of models proposed for Fds.

Lockwood, J. A.↗

The QBO as Potential Amplifier and Conduit to Lower Altitudes of Solar Cycle Influence?

The solar cycle (SC) effect in the lower atmosphere has been linked observationally to the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO), which is generated primarily by small-scale gravity waves (GW). Following up on a 2D study with our Numerical Spectral Model (NSM), we discuss here a 3D study in which we simulated the QBO under the influence of the SC. For a SC period of 10 years, the relative amplitude of radiative forcing is taken to vary exponentially with height, i.e., 0.2% at the surface, 2% at 50 km, 20% at 100 km and above. Applying spectral analysis to filter out and identify the SC signature, this model produces a relatively large modulation in the QBO of the lower stratospheric circulation, which is in qualitative agreement with the results obtained by Salby and Callaghan (2000) who analyzed zonal wind observations covering more than 40 years. The modeled SC modulation of the QBO extends to high latitudes where it produces temperature variations of about 1 K in the troposphere below 10 km. We report that the SC also generates in the model a hemispherically symmetric Equatorial Annual Oscillation (EAO, with 12-month period) that is largely confined to low latitudes. Under the influence of the GWs, the SC modulated EA0 propagates down into the lower stratosphere like the QBO. As is the case for the QBO, the energy of this EA0 is partially redistributed by the meridional circulation and planetary waves, presumably, to generate measurable SC signatures in the tropospheric temperature of the polar regions, which may be related to the so called Arctic Oscillation (Thompson and Wallace, 1998). The larger SC influence at higher altitudes is apparently transferred to the lower and denser regions of the atmosphere by tapping the momentum from the upward propagating GWs that drive the oscillations. The SC modulation of the QBO period could prove to be very effective in this process, as our earlier 2D study indicated. Further studies are needed, (1) to make sure that the SC effects are real and the numerical results are robust, and (2) to explore more fully the mechanism(s) that may conspire to amplify the SC effect. Quasi-decadal oscillations, generated internally by the QBO interacting with the seasonal cycles, may interfere with, or aid, the SC influence.

Mayr, Hans G.↗

Cold-Point Tropopause Temperature Bias in Reanalyses Modulated By Equatorial Waves

In this reanalysis inter-comparison study, we compare the modeled Cold-point tropopause temperature (CPT from model level data) near the equator to that of multi-mission GNSS-RO within a preliminary time period of 2007-2011. The known reanalysis CPT temperature warm bias is studied relative to the phase of equatorial waves filtered from GNSS-RO at tropopause level. This uncovers a common denominator in the CPT temperature bias behavior in all reanalyses: - When equatorial waves are present, within their cold phase the reanalysis bias is increased by over 1K, i.e. >1K on top of the reanalysis average warm bias. - Within an equatorial wave’s warm phase, the opposite is observed, with the reanalysis CPT temperature bias even being reversed at higher equatorial wave amplitudes, i.e. the modeled CPT becoming too cold in these cases. - With no equatorial wave anomalies present, the reanalysis bias remains at the average reported in previous inter-comparisons that looked at zonal-mean CPT biases. Inertia-Gravity and Mixed Rossby-Gravity waves show this behavior most clearly, Kelvin waves show a similar modulation but with half of the magnitude, and equatorial Rossby wave modulation of CPT reanalysis bias is still apparent but with further decreased magnitude. This hints on a time-space scale-dependence, with medium-smaller-scale and faster equatorial waves influencing CPT reanalysis bias the most. For comparison, the large-scale and slow-moving MJO does not show any of the effects described above. Current work focuses on the data assimilation response of the reanalysis systems, again relative to the equatorial wave’s phases.

Tropopause↗

Multi-scale processes driving tropical convection and influence of the aerosol (Final Technical Report)

This DOE GoAmazon collaborative project between scientists in the US and Brazil addresses fundamental processes that drive tropical deep convection including aerosol effects. The results provide guidance for improving the parameterizations of cloud and aerosol effects by increasing the knowledge of processes at work in tropical convection, especially over tropical land. Highlights include: • GoAmazon2014/5 observations permitted, for the first time, a comprehensive evaluation of the strong relationship between lower free tropospheric moisture and deep convective onset over the Amazon (Schiro et al. 2016, JAS; Schiro et al. 2018b, PNAS; Chakraborty et al. 2018, ACP; Schiro and Neelin 2018c). A set of diagnostics for deep convective onset has been established using data from the GoAmazon2014/5 campaign (Schiro et al. 2016, JAS), highlighting similarities and differences between the convective transition statistics over tropical land versus corresponding statistics from ARM campaigns in the tropical Western Pacific. The initial set of diagnostics has been provided as a module to be incorporated into the ARM Diagnostics Package of Shaocheng Xie and coworkers, which is being integrated into the PCMDI and E3SM diagnostics packages. Additionally, a set of downdraft diagnostics to inform model parameterizations has been developed (Schiro and Neelin 2018a, ACP). • These diagnostics have been used in constraining the behavior of modeled convective parameterizations. This includes using them with parameter perturbation experiments in the Community Earth System Model to show which parameter ranges are consistent with observed onset statistics, and to show that the primary causal direction of the water vapor-precipitation relationship is via the impact of mixing processes and free tropospheric moisture on convection (Kuo et al. 2017, JAS). Lintner et al. (2017, GRL) used this impact of free tropospheric moisture to systematically analyze issues in the simulation of Amazon rainfall in the CMIP5 model ensemble. • Leveraging the multi-instrument GoAmazon observations, Schiro et al. (2018, PNAS) are able to provide for the first time an empirical mixing using radar wind profiler data that provides a good predictor of precipitation for both mesoscale convective systems and smaller-scale convection. In addition, buoyancy estimated from these results is a good predictor of precipitation across the seasonal and diurnal cycles (Schiro and Neelin 2018c, JAS) and permits the effects of aerosols to be distinguished from those of the thermodynamic environment in the transition to deep convection (Chakraborty et al. 2018, ACP). • Placing the GoAmazon campaign in a larger context, in collaboration with U. São Paulo investigators, Rehbein et al. (2018) analyzed the characteristics of the mesoscale convective systems (MCS) that affect Amazon rainfall, including origins, lifetimes, propagation speed and displacement. de Barros Soares et al. (2017) establish statistically significant observed warming trends over much of South America and are able to attribute the origin of this to anthropogenic forcing based on the agreement of climate model simulations with and without anthropogenic forcings. This analysis left open the attribution of precipitation trends due to large natural variability. Barkhardorian et al. (2018) provide evidence indicating that the observed regional precipitation decrease and drying during recent over northern South America during recent austral springs will continue and intensify in the course of unfolding anthropogenic climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Roles of irrigation and reservoir operations in modulating terrestrial water and energy budgets in the Indian subcontinental river basins

Water management activities affect the terrestrial water cycle by increasing water supply and hence changing the partitioning of surface water and energy budgets over irrigated agricultural land, as well as modifying streamflow seasonality through reservoir operations (for irrigation, hydropower generation, and other purposes). Indian sub-continental basins are strongly influenced by human activities. However, the dynamics of how anthropogenic activities interact with the terrestrial water cycle have not been sufficiently studied over Indian sub-continental Basins. In this study, we applied a well-evaluated water management model, coupled with a large-scale land surface hydrological model with irrigation and reservoir operation schemes to examine the impacts of irrigation and reservoir operations on terrestrial water budgets over the Indian sub-continental basins. We conducted two simulations: one NATURAL (i.e., no irrigation and no reservoirs) and water management scenario (i.e., with irrigation and with reservoir regulations, referred to as MANAGED) over 18 basins from 1951 to 2012. The water management impacts were evaluated by comparing a number of key water and energy budget terms such as evapotranspiration (ET), total runoff (TR), land surface temperature (LST), reservoir storage, and discharge. Our results show that water management activities have significant (p-value < 0.05) impacts on ET and LST in most of the river basins during the pre-monsoon season (February-May). Comparing to the NATURAL scenario, ET under the MANAGED scenario is significantly increased in most basins during pre- and post-monsoon seasons especially in semi-arid regions, and LST is reduced predominately in the pre-monsoon season when irrigation water demand is high.

Shah, Harsh L.↗

Debris-induced consequences on turbulence and vorticity in solar photovoltaic module-generated array wakes

Particle-laden flows in solar photovoltaic (PV) systems are inevitable, where wind-swept debris in open environments are carried by high winds and turbulence, coating panel surfaces or damaging structures. Particle deposition, or soiling, is a well-known issue for large-scale plants which rely on uninhibited solar rays for optimal production. But understanding the mechanisms leading to soiling requires a physical and fluid dynamics-centered focus, since turbulence dominates PV panel wakes and is also known to alter particle concentration and trajectories. This study presents an experimental campaign toward consequences of particle-laden flow between two model PV panels using time-resolved particle image velocimetry. The model array was subjected to varied particle volume fractions, including a tracer particle case and a water droplet case. Characterization of mean velocity, turbulence statistics, and mean kinetic energy within the single phase and, separately, particle phase flows showed modified features due to particle inertia. Images captured at a frequency of 1 kHz in the near wake of the upstream panel allow for a first experimental look at vorticity and convective velocity of vortex structures for single-phase and particle-phase flows which are crucial to debris transport and soiling in PV environments.

Energy & Fuels↗

Calculating potential fields using microchannel spatial light modulators

We describe and present experimental results of the optical calculation of potential field maps suitable for mobile robot navigation. The optical computation employs two write modes of a microchannel spatial light modulator (MSLM). In one mode, written patterns expand spatially, and this characteristic is used to create an extended two dimensional function representing the influence of the goal in a robot's workspace. Distinct obstacle patterns are written in a second, non-expanding, mode. A model of the mechanisms determining MSLM write mode characteristics is developed and used to derive the optical calculation time for full potential field maps. Field calculations at a few hertz are possible with current technology, and calculation time vs. map size scales favorably in comparison to digital electronic computation.

Reid, Max B.↗

Bioregenerative life support: not a picnic

If humans are to live permanently in space, regenerative life support systems are an enabling technology and must replace the picnic approach of taking all supplies required for each mission. These systems are classified by technologies as either physical/chemical or bioregenerative. Both of these system-types can recycle water, remove carbon dioxide, produce oxygen, and recover essential elements from waste products. Bioregenerative can also produce food, thus, making it essential if humans are to exist in space independent of earth. A solely bioregenerative life support system includes plants as a biomass production module and microbial organisms in bioreactors as a resource recovery module. In the Advanced Life Support Program, bioregenerative life support systems are being investigated through a research and technology development project which includes large scale testing as part of the Breadboard Project and human tests conducted in the soon to be constructed BioPlex facility. Research and technology development efforts are directed toward optimizing biomass productivity in controlled chambers by developing light weight, energy efficient, and automated systems; recycling liquid and solid wastes; baselining the operation of bioreactors; determining system microbial stability; assessing chemical contamination; and building models required for long term system operations. The program will include space flight studies in the near future to determine if these life support technologies will function in microgravity. When a bioregenerative system is finally incorporated into a mission, the conversion from a picnic and resupply mentality to permanent recycling and independence from earth will be complete.

NASA Center KSC↗

Characterization of Slosh Damping for Ortho-Grid and Iso-Grid Internal Tank Structures

Grid stiffened tank structures such as Ortho-Grid and Iso-Grid are widely used in cryogenic tanks for providing stiffening to the tank while reducing mass, compared to tank walls of constant cross-section. If the structure is internal to the tank, it will positively affect the fluid dynamic behavior of the liquid propellant, in regard to fluid slosh damping. As NASA and commercial companies endeavor to explore the solar system, vehicles will by necessity become more mass efficient, and design margin will be reduced where possible. Therefore, if the damping characteristics of the Ortho-Grid and Iso-Grid structure is understood, their positive damping effect can be taken into account in the systems design process. Historically, damping by internal structures has been characterized by rules of thumb and for Ortho-Grid, empirical design tools intended for slosh baffles of much larger cross-section have been used. There is little or no information available to characterize the slosh behavior of Iso-Grid internal structure. Therefore, to take advantage of these structures for their positive damping effects, there is much need for obtaining additional data and tools to characterize them. Recently, the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center conducted both sub-scale testing and computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations of slosh damping for Ortho-Grid and Iso-Grid tanks for cylindrical tanks containing water. Enhanced grid meshing techniques were applied to the geometrically detailed and complex Ortho-Grid and Iso-Grid structures. The Loci-STREAM CFD program with the Volume of Fluid Method module for tracking and locating the water-air fluid interface was used to conduct the simulations. The CFD simulations were validated with the test data and new empirical models for predicting damping and frequency of Ortho-Grid and Iso-Grid structures were generated.

Douglas G. Westra↗

NETL Direct Air Capture Center

In 2022 Congress authorized the $25M National Energy Technology Laboratory Direct Air Capture Center. The facility will be specifically targeted at accelerating the commercialization of technologies beyond the conceptual stage which have not yet reached full pilot-scale (TRL 3 to 6). The ability to operate over a wide range of conditions will help the developers to understand how their technologies respond in different climates, from summer to winter and arid to tropical. NETL recognizes that DAC technology is still early in its evolution, and a wide variety of highly varied technologies are being explored. The Center will be designed with substantial flexibility to accommodate the rapidly evolving technological landscape. Testing systems at three scales will be included: lab-scale systems designed to examine the long-term stability of DAC materials, bench-scale module testing systems capable of probing flow dynamics, and small pilot-scale skid rooms able to test prototype DAC units under a wide variety of climate conditions. The NETL DAC Center will feature dedicated engineering, technician, scientific and logistical support for experimental system design, installation, operation of experiments, and interpretation of results for projects including but not limited to kinetics of absorption/desorption, thermal duty, and post-mortem elemental characterization to understand degradation. The NETL DAC Center projects will also have access to dedicated process modeling and analysis to evaluate the technoeconomic aspects of new technologies. NETL’s Systems Engineering and Analysis (SEA) team, the Carbon Capture Simulation Initiative (CCSI), and the Institute for the Design of Advanced Energy Systems (IDAES) are all potential collaborators with NETL’s testing partners from industry, academia, and other research institutions. NETL also has world class capabilities in device scale modeling (i.e., MFIX) that will be available to help design more efficient contactors and optimize unique internal configurations that can be realized by advanced manufacturing. The talk will cover the design and capabilities of the center, the planned availability, and feedback will be solicited from the audience on DAC testing needs.

Luebke, David↗

Accelerating commercialization of direct air capture technology

In 2022 Congress authorized the $25M National Energy Technology Laboratory Direct Air Capture Center. The facility will be specifically targeted at accelerating the commercialization of technologies beyond the conceptual stage which have not yet reached full pilot-scale (TRL 3 to 6). The ability to operate over a wide range of conditions will help the developers to understand how their technologies respond in different climates, from summer to winter and arid to tropical. NETL recognizes that DAC technology is still early in its evolution, and a wide variety of highly varied technologies are being explored. The Center will be designed with substantial flexibility to accommodate the rapidly evolving technological landscape. Testing systems at three scales will be included: lab-scale systems designed to examine the long-term stability of DAC materials, bench-scale module testing systems capable of probing flow dynamics, and small pilot-scale skid rooms able to test prototype DAC units under a wide variety of climate conditions. The NETL DAC Center will feature dedicated engineering, technician, scientific and logistical support for experimental system design, installation, operation of experiments, and interpretation of results for projects including but not limited to kinetics of absorption/desorption, thermal duty, and post-mortem elemental characterization to understand degradation. The NETL DAC Center projects will also have access to dedicated process modeling and analysis to evaluate the technoeconomic aspects of new technologies. NETL’s Systems Engineering and Analysis (SEA) team, the Carbon Capture Simulation Initiative (CCSI), and the Institute for the Design of Advanced Energy Systems (IDAES) are all potential collaborators with NETL’s testing partners from industry, academia, and other research institutions. NETL also has world class capabilities in device scale modeling (i.e., MFIX) that will be available to help design more efficient contactors and optimize unique internal configurations that can be realized by advanced manufacturing. The talk will cover the design and capabilities of the center, the planned availability, and feedback will be solicited from the audience on DAC testing needs.

Luebke, David↗

Advancing uncertainty characterization for understanding projected water scarcity in multi-sector, multi-actor river basins across scales.

Invited Talk at AGU Fall Meeting 2023 Modeling how human institutions and infrastructure interact with the water cycle is essential to better understand the vulnerability, and resilience of water resources systems from the local to the global scale. This is especially true when investigating multi-sector, multi-actor responses to the effects of long-term changes and short-term shocks. It is also well recognized that uncertainty present throughout the modeling cycle (e.g., in data, functional relations, and model coupling approaches) limits our ability to trace the interactive dynamics of human-water systems, as well as to quantify their implications for management and planning. Systems with large numbers of diverse stakeholders further compound this challenge, as uncertain drivers and complex dynamics might have very disparate effects on water users. The work presented is conducted through the Integrated Multisector Multiscale Modeling (IM3) Science Focus Area, which explores how human and natural systems co-evolve in response to change. Through this multi-year effort, we have developed exploratory modeling methods to better characterize how the uncertain human and natural drivers of water scarcity yield consequential vulnerabilities in institutionally complex, multi-sectoral systems. This talk will specifically present on a series of uncertainty characterization experiments performed in the Upper Colorado River Basin, a sub-basin of the Colorado with thousands of water users. These complementary and systematic experiments are aimed at understanding: How are various uncertain stressors (e.g., climate change, demand growth) affecting the diverse water users of this basin in terms of water shortage? What are the key drivers of this shortage for each user? Methods and results from this work are used to address additional questions on the ability of adaptation to modulate the effects of these uncertain drivers, and on their compounding effects across spatial scales and through sectoral interactions.

Hadjimichael, Antonia↗