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At least 757 records · Page 42

Quantifying the Seasonal and Interannual Variability of North American Isoprene Emissions Using Satellite Observations of the Formaldehyde Column

Quantifying isoprene emissions using satellite observations of the formaldehyde (HCHO) columns is subject to errors involving the column retrieval and the assumed relationship between HCHO columns and isoprene emissions, taken here from the GEOS-CHEM chemical transport model. Here we use a 6-year (1996-2001) HCHO column data set from the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME) satellite instrument to (1) quantify these errors, (2) evaluate GOME-derived isoprene emissions with in situ flux measurements and a process-based emission inventory (Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature, MEGAN), and (3) investigate the factors driving the seasonal and interannual variability of North American isoprene emissions. The error in the GOME HCHO column retrieval is estimated to be 40%. We use the Master Chemical Mechanism (MCM) to quantify the time-dependent HCHO production from isoprene, alpha- and beta-pinenes, and methylbutenol and show that only emissions of isoprene are detectable by GOME. The time-dependent HCHO yield from isoprene oxidation calculated by MCM is 20-30% larger than in GEOS-CHEM. GOME-derived isoprene fluxes track the observed seasonal variation of in situ measurements at a Michigan forest site with a -30% bias. The seasonal variation of North American isoprene emissions during 2001 inferred from GOME is similar to MEGAN, with GOME emissions typically 25% higher (lower) at the beginning (end) of the growing season. GOME and MEGAN both show a maximum over the southeastern United States, but they differ in the precise location. The observed interannual variability of this maximum is 20-30%, depending on month. The MEGAN isoprene emission dependence on surface air temperature explains 75% of the month-to-month variability in GOME-derived isoprene emissions over the southeastern United States during May-September 1996-2001.

Palmer, Paul I.↗

Observations of hysteresis in solar cycle variations among seven solar activity indicators

We show that smoothed time series of 7 indices of solar activity exhibit significant solar cycle dependent differences in their relative variations during the past 20 years. In some cases these observed hysteresis patterns start to repeat over more than one solar cycle, giving evidence that this is a normal feature of solar variability. Among the indices we study, we find that the hysteresis effects are approximately simple phase shifts, and we quantify these phase shifts in terms of lag times behind the leading index, the International Sunspot Number. Our measured lag times range from less than one month to greater than four months and can be much larger than lag times estimated from short-term variations of these same activity indices during the emergence and decay of major active regions. We argue that hysteresis represents a real delay in the onset and decline of solar activity and is an important clue in the search for physical processes responsible for changing solar emission at various wavelengths.

Bachmann, Kurt T.↗

Synthesizing land use and demographic change in Southeast Asia’s smaller urbanized areas from 2000–2015

The majority of the human population now reside in urban areas today. The United Nations estimates that nearly half of all urban dwellers currently live in cities smaller than 500 000 persons and the majority of future urban growth will take place in Asia and Africa, likely in these smaller urban areas, not mega cities. Thus, understanding the factors that influence urban demographic trajectories in small urban areas is critical to address sustainable and equitable policy initiatives related to food security, changing climate hazard exposure, and economic opportunities. Here we focus on Southeast Asia—a region historically characterized by lower urban population proportions, yet with a rapidly shifting dynamic demographic—to examine correlates of demographic change among smaller cities. We combine two open-source satellite-informed datasets: GHS urban center database (2015) and age-sex gridded data from WorldPop to calculate socio-demographic characteristics to model drivers of change in annualized urban population growth from 2000–2015 for 505 urbanized places. We find a general pattern of decreasing dependency ratios as city-size increases for most urban areas in Southeast Asia. Higher rates of growth and more variation is observed for smaller cities—those with fewer than 300 000 persons, the lowest population limit for UN data on urbanization. When examining covariates of urban population growth, we find significant statistical associations of population change in smaller urbanized areas with climatic, economic, and land cover/land use variables, but with country-specific variations. Characterizing a continuum of urban population development in the context of changing environmental, economic and climate conditions has been an important sustainable development and equity issue for decades, but newer analysis of city-level drivers allows for systematic inquiry thus moving beyond total population counts for policy-relevant insight.

Southeast Asia synthesis↗

The brightness variations of Comet Halley at large heliocentric distances

The reasons for the intrinsic brightness variations of up to 500 percent on time scales as short as a few hours detected by Sekanina (1984) in Comet Halley between October 1982 and February 1984 are discussed. It is shown that solar wind-modulated electrostatic dust blowoff from the night side of the comet is consistent with the observed brightness variations. The variations coincide with the encounter of high-speed streams with the comet. The stream's propagation time to the comet and the sun's rotation during this transit were used to locate the stream origin on the coronal surface, and the results are shown.

Flammer, K. R.↗

Puzzling Problems of He I Line Formation in Early B Stars

Although NLTE model atmospheres have been shown to resolve most of the equivalent width (EW) discrepancies for blue He I lines (Auer and Mihalas 1972, 1973) Wolff and Heasley 1984, 1985) have demonstrated that discrepancies remain for the leading members of the singlet/triplet 2P - nD series viz. lambda 6678 and lambda 5876. These two lines are the strongest nonresonance He I transitions and are important because they respond to thermal changes in the superficial atmosphere (approximately 10(exp -3)) of early B stars. In order to understand the observed rapid variations of the lambda 6678 line in mild Be stars, we undertook a survey of EW's of lambda 6678 and lambda 4388, namely the first and third member of the same series. These two lines have a log gf ratio of 15 but have similar EW's in B star spectra. Our new observations confirm the red line discrepancy noted by WH85 and point to additional EW differences among various groups of B stars not noted hitherto.

Smith, Myron A.↗

The observed day-to-day variability of Mars water vapor

The diurnal variability of atmospheric water vapor as derived from the Viking MAWD data is discussed. The detection of day to day variability of atmospheric water would be a significant finding since it would place constraints on the nature of surface reservoirs. Unfortunately, the diurnal variability seen by the MAWD experiment is well correlated with the occurrence of dust and/or ice hazes, making it difficult to separate real variations from observational effects. Analysis of the day to day variability of water vapor in the Martian atmosphere suggests that the observations are, at certain locations and seasons, significantly affected by the presence of water-ice hazes. Because such effects are generally limited to specific locations, such as Tharsis, Lunae Planum, and the polar cap edge during the spring, the seasonal and latitudinal trends in water vapor that have been previously reported are not significantly affected.

Jakosky, Bruce M.↗

Northern and Southern Hemisphere Ground-Based Infrared Spectroscopic Measurements of Tropospheric Carbon Monoxide and Ethane

Time series of CO and C2H6 measurements have been derived from high resolution infrared solar spectra recorded in Lauder, New Zealand (45.0 deg S, 169.7 deg E, altitude 0.37 km) and at the U. S. National Solar Observatory (31.90 deg N, 111.6 deg W, altitude 2.09 km) on Kitt Peak. Lauder observations were obtained between July 1993 and November 1997 while the Kitt Peak measurements were recorded between May 1977 and December 1997. Both databases were analyzed with spectroscopic parameters that included significant improvements for C2H6 relative to previous studies. Target CO and C2H6 lines were selected to achieve similar vertical samplings based on averaging kernels. These calculations show that partial columns from layers extending from the surface to the mean tropopause and from the mean tropopause to 100 km are nearly independent. Retrievals based on a semiempirical application of the Rodgers optimal estimation technique are reported for the lower layer, which has a broad maximum in sensitivity in the upper troposphere. The Lauder CO and C2H6 partial columns exhibit highly asymmetrical seasonal cycles with minima in austral autumn and sharp peaks in austral spring. The spring maxima are the result of tropical biomass burning emissions followed by deep convective vertical transport to the upper troposphere and long-range horizontal transport. Significant year-to-year variations are observed for both CO and C2H6, but the measured trends, (+0.37 +/- 0.57)%/ yr and (-0.64 +/- 0.79)%/ yr, 1 sigma, respectively, indicate no significant long-term changes. The Kitt Peak data also exhibit CO and C2H6 seasonal variations in the lower layer with trends equal to (-0.27 +/- 0.17)%/ yr and (-1.20 +/- 0.35)%/ yr, 1 sigma, respectively. Hence, a decrease in the Kitt Peak tropospheric C2H6 column has been detected, though the CO trend is not significant. Both measurement sets are compared with previous observations, reported trends, and three-dimensional model calculations.

Rinsland, Curtis P.↗

Dust and the intrinsic spectral index of quasar variations: hints of finite stress at the innermost stable circular orbit

ABSTRACT We present a study of 9 242 spectroscopically confirmed quasars with multiepoch ugriz photometry from the SDSS Southern Survey. By fitting a separable linear model to each quasar’s spectral variations, we decompose their five-band spectral energy distributions into variable (disc) and non-variable (host galaxy) components. In modelling the disc spectra, we include attenuation by dust on the line of sight through the host galaxy to its nucleus. We consider five commonly used attenuation laws, and find that the best description is by dust similar to that of the Small Magellanic Cloud, inferring a lack of carbonaceous grains from the relatively weak 2175-Å absorption feature. We go on to construct a composite spectrum for the quasar variations spanning 700–8000 Å. By varying the assumed power-law Lν ∝ να spectral slope, we find a best-fitting value α = 0.71 ± 0.02, excluding at high confidence the canonical Lν ∝ ν1/3 prediction for a steady-state accretion disc with a T ∝ r−3/4 temperature profile. The bluer spectral index of the observed quasar variations instead supports the model of Agol & Krolik, and Mummery & Balbus, in which a steeper temperature profile, T ∝ r−7/8, develops as a result of finite magnetically induced stress at the innermost stable circular orbit extracting energy and angular momentum from the black hole spin.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Mars: Correcting surface albedo observations for effects of atmospheric dust loading

We have developed a radiative transfer model which allows the effects of atmospheric dust loading on surface albedo to be investigated. This model incorporates atmospheric dust opacity, the single scattering albedo and particle phase function of atmospheric dust, the bidirectional reflectance of the surface, and variable lighting and viewing geometry. The most recent dust particle properties are utilized. The spatial and temporal variability of atmospheric opacity (Tan) strongly influences the radiative transfer modelling results. We are currently using the approach described to determine Tan for IRTM mapping sequences of selected regions. This approach allows Tan to be determined at the highest spatial and temporal resolution supported by the IRTM data. Applying the radiative transfer modelling and determination of Tan described, IRTM visual brightness observations can be corrected for the effects of atmospheric dust loading a variety of locations and times. This approach allows maps of 'dust-corrected surface albedo' to be constructed for selected regions. Information on the variability of surface albedo and the amount of dust deposition/erosion related to such variability results. To date, this study indicates that atmospheric dust loading has a significant effect on observations of surface albedo, amounting to albedo corrections of as much as several tens of percent. This correction is not constant or linear, but depends upon surface albedo, viewing and lighting geometry, the dust and surface phase functions, and the atmospheric opacity. It is clear that the quantitative study of surface albedo, especially where small variations in observed albedo are important (such as photometric analyses), needs to account for the effects of the atmospheric dust loading. Maps of 'dust-corrected surface albedo' will be presented for a number of regions.

Lee, S. W.↗

Small vs. Large Convective Cloud Objects from CERES Aqua Observations: Where are the Intraseasonal Variation Signals?

During inactive phases of Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO), there are plenty of deep but small convective systems and far fewer deep and large ones. During active phases of MJO, a manifestation of an increase in the occurrence of large and deep cloud clusters results from an amplification of large-scale motions by stronger convective heating. This study is designed to quantitatively examine the roles of small and large cloud clusters during the MJO life cycle. We analyze the cloud object data from Aqua CERES observations for tropical deep convective (DC) and cirrostratus (CS) cloud object types according to the real-time multivariate MJO index. The cloud object is a contiguous region of the earth with a single dominant cloud-system type. The size distributions, defined as the footprint numbers as a function of cloud object diameters, for particular MJO phases depart greatly from the combined (8-phase) distribution at large cloud-object diameters due to the reduced/increased numbers of cloud objects related to changes in the large-scale environments. The medium diameter corresponding to the combined distribution is determined and used to partition all cloud objects into "small" and "large" groups of a particular phase. The two groups corresponding to the combined distribution have nearly equal numbers of footprints. The medium diameters are 502 km for DC and 310 km for cirrostratus. The range of the variation between two extreme phases (typically, the most active and depressed phases) for the small group is 6-11% in terms of the numbers of cloud objects and the total footprint numbers. The corresponding range for the large group is 19-44%. In terms of the probability density functions of radiative and cloud physical properties, there are virtually no differences between the MJO phases for the small group, but there are significant differences for the large groups for both DC and CS types. These results suggest that the intreseasonal variation signals reside at the large cloud clusters while the small cloud clusters represent the background noises resulting from various types of the tropical waves with different wavenumbers and propagation directions/speeds.

Xu, Kuan-Man↗

Long-term solar wind electron variations between 1971 and 1978

Imp solar wind electron data measured between 1971 and 1978 were studied with the aim of determining long-term variations near the earth. Two separate sets of parameter variations were observed: (1) in 1976-1977 the solar wind density, the electron temperature, and the interplanetary electrostatic potential were all enhanced, and (2) the halo density and associated electron parameters were all depressed during a 1 1/2-year period centered on the last 6 months of 1976. Although interpretation of these results in terms of corresponding coronal and interplanetary variations is not unique, it may be significant that measured solar wind parameters near the minimum of solar cycle 20 agree better with the Hartle-Sturrock model of the coronal expansion than they do during other epochs.

Feldman, W. C.↗

Time-resolved imaging and spectral studies of an X-ray burst from the globular cluster Terzan

The first image of an X-ray burst was recorded with the HRI detector at the Einstein Observatory while observing the globular cluster Terzan 2. The burst was coincident with a persistent X-ray source located near the center of the cluster (thus confirming an earlier suggested identification) and reached a peak luminosity exceeding 5 x 10 to the 38th (d/10 kpc) squared. After a rapid rise to peak luminosity, a double-peaked spectral variation was observed over the next approximately 20 s with anticorrelated changes in the apparent emission region radius and temperature derived from blackbody (and modified blackbody) spectral fits. A shell or disk geometry, which undergoes adiabatic expansion and contraction, may be implied for the burst emission region. Alternatively, Comptonization is required. It is also shown that the peak burst luminosity must exceed the Eddington limit.

Grindlay, J. E.↗

Analysis of sea ice dynamics

The ongoing work has established the basis for using multiyear sea ice concentrations from SMMR passive microwave for studies of largescale advection and convergence/divergence of the Arctic sea ice pack. Comparisons were made with numerical model simulations and buoy data showing qualitative agreement on daily to interannual time scales. Analysis of the 7-year SMMR data set shows significant interannual variations in the total area of multiyear ice. The scientific objective is to investigate the dynamics, mass balance, and interannual variability of the Arctic sea ice pack. The research emphasizes the direct application of sea ice parameters derived from passive microwave data (SMMR and SSMI) and collaborative studies using a sea ice dynamics model. The possible causes of observed interannual variations in the multiyear ice area are being examined. The relative effects of variations in the large scale advection and convergence/divergence within the ice pack on a regional and seasonal basis are investigated. The effects of anomolous atmospheric forcings are being examined, including the long-lived effects of synoptic events and monthly variations in the mean geostrophic winds. Estimates to be made will include the amount of new ice production within the ice pack during winter and the amount of ice exported from the pack.

Zwally, J.↗

Northern and Southern Hemisphere Ground-Based Infrared Spectroscopic Measurements of Tropospheric Carbon Monoxide and Ethane

Time series of CO and C2H, measurements have been derived from high-resolution infrared solar spectra recorded in Lauder, New Zealand (45.0 degrees S, 169.7 degrees E, altitude 0.37 km), and at the U.S. National Solar Observatory (31.9 degrees N, 11, 1.6 degrees W, altitude 2.09 km) on Kitt Peak. Lauder observations were obtained between July 1993 and November 1997, while the Kitt Peak measurements were recorded between May 1977 and December 1997. Both databases were analyzed with spectroscopic parameters that included significant improvements for C2H6 relative to previous studies. Target CO and C2H6 lines were selected to achieve similar vertical samplings based on averaging kernels. These calculations show that partial columns from layers extending from the surface to the mean tropopause and from the mean tropopause to 100 km are nearly independent. Retrievals based on a semiempirical application of the Rodgers optimal estimation technique are reported for the lower layer, which has a broad maximum in sensitivity in the upper troposphere. The Lauder CO and C2H, partial columns exhibit highly asymmetrical seasonal cycles with minima in austral autumn and sharp peaks in austral spring. The spring maxima are the result of tropical biomass burning emissions followed by deep convective vertical transport to the upper troposphere and long-range horizontal transport. Significant year-to-year variations are observed for both CO and C2H6, but the measured trends, (+0.37 +/- 0.57)% yr(exp -1) and (-0.64 +/- 0.79)% yr(exp -1), I sigma, respectively, indicate no significant long-term changes. The Kitt Peak data also exhibit CO and C2H6, seasonal variations in the lower layer with trends equal to (-0.27 +/- 0.17)% yr(exp -1) and (-1.20 +/- 0.35)% yr(exp -1), 1 sigma, respectively. Hence a decrease in the Kitt Peak tropospheric C2H6 column has been detected, though the CO trend is not significant. Both measurement sets are compared with previous observations, reported trends, and three-dimensional model calculations.

Rinsland, Curtis P.↗

A new twist to the solar cycle

Recent numerical simulations of magnetic buoyancy instabilities suggest a new mechanism for the variation with the solar cycle in the scale and structure of surface magnetic flux. The nonlinear evolution of a predominantly toroidal field is found to depend crucially on the distribution of the weaker poloidal ingredient. For certain field configurations large, helical magnetic fragments are produced; for others the escaping field is small-scale and untwisted. We propose that the observed structural variations in flux may be accounted for by small changes in the twist of a deep-seated field. The large fragments will appear at the surface as active regions, which dominate at solar maximum, while the small-scale field will emerge as ephemeral regions which constitute practically all of the flux at solar minimum.

Cattaneo, Fausto↗

Directly Driven Ion Outflow

We examine ionospheric outflows in the high altitude magnetospheric polar cap during the POLAR satellite's apogee on April 19, 1996 using the Thermal Ion Dynamics Experiment (TIDE) instrument. The elevated levels of O(+) observed in this pass may be due to the geophysical conditions during and prior to the apogee pass. In addition to the high abundance of O(+) relative to H(+), several other aspects of this data are noteworthy. We observe relationships between the density, velocity, and temperature which appear to be associated with perpendicular heating and the mirror force, rather than adiabatic expansion. The H(+) outflow is at a fairly constant flux which is consistent with being source limited by charge exchange at lower altitudes. Local centrifugal acceleration in the polar cap is found to be insufficient to account for the main variations we observe in the outflow velocity. The solar wind speed is high during this pass approximately 700 kilometers per second, and there are Alfve'n waves present in the solar wind such that the solar wind speed and IMF Bx are correlated. In this pass both the H(+) and O(+) outflow velocities correlate with both the solar wind speed and IMF fluctuations. Polar cap magnetometer and Hydra electron data show the same long period wave structure as found in the solar wind and polar cap ion outflow. In addition, the polar cap Poynting flux along the magnetic field direction correlates well with the H(+) temperature (R=0.84). We conclude that the solar wind can drive polar cap ion outflow particularly during polar squalls by setting up a parallel drop that is tens of eV which then causes the ion outflow velocity of O(+) and H(+), the electrons, and magnetic perturbations to vary in a similar fashion.

Elliott, H. A.↗

The Beta Pictoris circumstellar disk. XV - Highly ionized species near Beta Pictoris

Temporal variations of the Fe II, Mg II, and Al III circumstellar lines towards Beta Pictoris have been detected and monitored since 1985. However, the unusual presence of Al III ions is still puzzling, since the UV stellar flux from an A5V star such as Beta Pic is insufficient to produce such an ion. In order to better define the origin of such a phenomenon, new observations have been carried out to detect faint signatures of other highly ionized species in the short UV wavelength range, where the stellar continuum flux is low. These observations reveal variations not only near the C IV doublet lines, but also in C I and Al II lines, two weakly ionized species, not clearly detectable until now. In the framework of an infalling body scenario, highly ionized species would be created in the tail, far from the comet head, by collisions with ambient gas surrounding the star, or a weak stellar wind. Spectral changes have also been detected near a CO molecular band location, which, if confirmed, would provide the first molecular signature around Beta Pictoris.

Deleuil, M.↗

On the influence of the atmospheric dust on the zodiacal light polarization

Three color observations of the nightglow brightness and polarization were made to determine the brightness of zodiacal light at the ecliptic pole. On the assumption that the degree of polarization of zodiacal light is 0.20 at the ecliptic pole, the corresponding brightnesses are found to be 68, 70, and 96 G2 stars of the 10th magnitude per square deg. at 0.37, 0.53, and 0.58 micron. The large diurnal variations in observed intensity and direction of polarization are attributed to the effects of dust in the earth's atmosphere.

Divari, N. B.↗