Reduced-Order Modeling and Simulated Annealing Optimization for Efficient Residential Building Utility Bill Calibration
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32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
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Results for “Optimization modeling”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Optimizing wind farm siting to reduce power system impacts of wind variability
We introduce and solve two variants of a biobjective optimization model to reduce the negative impact of wind variability on the power system by strategically locating wind farms. The first model variant considers average changes in wind power over time; the second captures extreme fluctuations in wind power. A complementary set of wind sites is selected with the aim of minimizing both residual demand and the variability in residual demand. Because exact optimization is computationally intensive, we develop two heuristics—forward and backward greedy algorithms—to find approximate solutions. The results are compared with the exact optimization results for a well-selected subset of the data as well as to the results from selecting sites based on average wind alone. The two models are solved using demand data and potential wind sites for the Southwest Power Pool. Though both objectives can be improved by adding more sites, for a fixed number of sites, minimizing residual demand and variability in residual demand are competing objectives. Here, we find an approximate efficient frontier to compare trade-offs between the two objectives. We also vary the parameter in the heuristic that controls how the two objectives are prioritized. For the case study, the backward greedy algorithm is more effective at reducing the wind power variability than the forward greedy algorithm. Furthermore, using the backward algorithm for the full dataset is more effective than solving the exact optimization on a subset of the data when the results are evaluated using the full dataset.
17 WIND ENERGY↗
Equation-based languages – A new paradigm for building energy modeling, simulation and optimization
Most of the state-of-the-art building simulation programs implement models in imperative programming languages. This complicates modeling and excludes the use of certain efficient methods for simulation and optimization. In contrast, equation-based modeling languages declare relations among variables, thereby allowing the use of computer algebra to enable much simpler schematic modeling and to generate efficient code for simulation and optimization. We contrast the two approaches in this paper. We explain how such manipulations support new use cases. In the first of two examples, we couple models of the electrical grid, multiple buildings, HVAC systems and controllers to test a controller that adjusts building room temperatures and PV inverter reactive power to maintain power quality. In the second example, we contrast the computing time for solving an optimal control problem for a room-level model predictive controller with and without symbolic manipulations. As a result, exploiting the equation-based language led to 2, 200 times faster solution
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
Criteria for the optimal design of experimental tests
Some of the basic concepts are unified that were developed for the problem of finding optimal approximating functions which relate a set of controlled variables to a measurable response. The techniques have the potential for reducing the amount of testing required in experimental investigations. Specifically, two low-order polynomial models are considered as approximations to unknown functionships. For each model, optimal means of designing experimental tests are presented which, for a modest number of measurements, yield prediction equations that minimize the error of an estimated response anywhere inside a selected region of experimentation. Moreover, examples are provided for both models to illustrate their use. Finally, an analysis of a second-order prediction equation is given to illustrate ways of determining maximum or minimum responses inside the experimentation region.
Canavos, G. C.↗
Methane and nitrous oxide porewater concentrations and surface fluxes of a regulated river
Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from rivers are a critical missing component of current global GHG models. Their exclusion is mainly due to a lack of in-situ measurements and a poor understanding of the spatiotemporal dynamics of GHG production and emissions, which prevents optimal model parametrization. We combined simultaneous observations of porewater concentrations along different beach positions and depths, and surface fluxes of methane and nitrous oxide at a plot scale in a large regulated river during three water stages: rising, falling, and low. Our goal was to gain insights into the interactions between hydrological exchanges and GHG emissions and elucidate possible hypotheses that could guide future research on the mechanisms of GHG production, consumption, and transport in the hyporheic zone (HZ). Results indicate that the site functioned as a net source of methane. Surface fluxes of methane during river water stages at three beach positions (shallow intermediate and deep) correlated with porewater concentrations of methane. However, fluxes were significantly higher in the intermediate position during low water stage, suggesting that low residence time increased methane emissions. Vertical profiles of methane peaked at different depths, indicating an influence of the magnitude and direction of the hyporheic mixing during the different river water stages on methane production and consumption. The site acted as either a sink or a source of nitrous oxide depending on the elevation of the water column. Nitrous oxide porewater concentrations peaked at the upper layers of the sediment throughout the different water stages. River hydrological stages significantly influenced porewater concentrations and fluxes of GHG, probably by influencing heterotrophic respiration (production and consumption processes) and transport to and from the HZ. Our results highlight the importance of including dynamic hydrological exchanges when studying and modeling GHG production and consumption in the HZ of large rivers.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Chamber Flux and Porewater Concentration of CH4, CO2 and N2O, 2018, Columbia River bank at the Hanford site, WA, USA
This is the corresponding observations data for the paper: Jorge A Villa; Garrett J Smith; Yang Ju; Lupita Renteria; Jordan C Angle; Evan Arntzen; Samuel F Harding; Huiying Ren; Xingyuan Chen; Audrey H Sawyer; Emily B Graham; James C Stegen; Kelly C Wrighton; Gil Bohrer (2020) Methane and nitrous oxide porewater concentrations and surface fluxes of a regulated river. Science of the Total Environment.Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from rivers are a critical missing component of current global GHG models. Their exclusion is mainly due to a lack of in-situ measurements and a poor understanding of the spatiotemporal dynamics of GHG production and emissions, which prevents optimal model parametrization. We combined simultaneous observations of porewater concentrations along different beach positions and depths, and surface fluxes of methane and nitrous oxide at a plot scale in a large regulated river during three water stages: rising, falling, and low. Our goal was to gain insights into the interactions between hydrological exchanges and GHG emissions and elucidate possible hypotheses that could guide future research on the mechanisms of GHG production, consumption, and transport in the hyporheic zone (HZ). Results indicate that the site functioned as a net source of methane. Surface fluxes of methane during river water stages at three beach positions (shallow, intermediate and deep) correlated with porewater concentrations of methane. However, fluxes were significantly higher in the intermediate position during the low water stage, suggesting that low residence time increased methane emissions. Vertical profiles of methane peaked at different depths, indicating an influence of the magnitude and direction of the hyporheic mixing during the different river water stages on methane production and consumption. The site acted as either a sink or a source of nitrous oxide depending on the elevation of the water column. Nitrous oxide porewater concentrations peaked at the upper layers of the sediment throughout the different water stages. River hydrological stages significantly influenced porewater concentrations and fluxes of GHG, probably by influencing heterotrophic respiration (production and consumption processes) and transport to and from the HZ. Our results highlight the importance of including dynamic hydrological exchanges when studying and modeling GHG production and consumption in the HZ of large rivers.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
A Computational Framework for Evaluating and Optimizing Critical Mineral Recovery Opportunities in Produced Water Networks
In this presentation, we show a quadratically constrained optimization model to assess how operational decisions in a produced water network can meet minimum Lithium recovery concentration requirements while minimizing operating costs. We also discuss the need for global optimization algorithmic tools and how we look to address such challenges.
Bhatia, Arsh↗
Implications of real-gas behavior on refractive index calculations for optical diagnostics of fuel–air mixing at high pressures
Three models to compute the refractive index of gaseous mixtures at real gas conditions are presented with the purpose to improve the accuracy of state relationships between refractive index and thermodynamic properties. Models are compared with experimental data to determine one that is applicable to high pressure mixtures with non-ideal thermodynamic behavior near or above a fluids’ critical point. The optimal model is applied to analyze adiabatic thermal mixing of fuel and air at typical diesel engine conditions. Our results show that the ideal gas mixture law is appropriate in the vapor region, assuming it is known, for example, from experimental measurements. Finally, the model is applied for binary fuel-air mixing at supercritical conditions to demonstrate its full potential.
02 PETROLEUM↗
Evaluation and comparison of benchmark QSAR models to predict a relevant REACH endpoint: The bioconcentration factor (BCF)
The bioconcentration factor (BCF) is an important bioaccumulation hazard assessment metric in many regulatory contexts. Its assessment is required by the REACH regulation (Registration, Evaluation, Authorization and Restriction of Chemicals) and by CLP (Classification, Labeling and Packaging). We challenged nine well-known and widely used BCF QSAR models against 851 compounds stored in an ad-hoc created database. The goodness of the regression analysis was assessed by considering the determination coefficient (R{sup 2}) and the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE); Cooper's statistics and Matthew's Correlation Coefficient (MCC) were calculated for all the thresholds relevant for regulatory purposes (i.e. 100 L/kg for Chemical Safety Assessment; 500 L/kg for Classification and Labeling; 2000 and 5000 L/kg for Persistent, Bioaccumulative and Toxic (PBT) and very Persistent, very Bioaccumulative (vPvB) assessment) to assess the classification, with particular attention to the models' ability to control the occurrence of false negatives. As a first step, statistical analysis was performed for the predictions of the entire dataset; R{sup 2}>0.70 was obtained using CORAL, T.E.S.T. and EPISuite Arnot–Gobas models. As classifiers, ACD and log P-based equations were the best in terms of sensitivity, ranging from 0.75 to 0.94. External compound predictions were carried out for the models that had their own training sets. CORAL model returned the best performance (R{sup 2}{sub ext}=0.59), followed by the EPISuite Meylan model (R{sup 2}{sub ext}=0.58). The latter gave also the highest sensitivity on external compounds with values from 0.55 to 0.85, depending on the thresholds. Statistics were also compiled for compounds falling into the models Applicability Domain (AD), giving better performances. In this respect, VEGA CAESAR was the best model in terms of regression (R{sup 2}=0.94) and classification (average sensitivity>0.80). This model also showed the best regression (R{sup 2}=0.85) and sensitivity (average>0.70) for new compounds in the AD but not present in the training set. However, no single optimal model exists and, thus, it would be wise a case-by-case assessment. Yet, integrating the wealth of information from multiple models remains the winner approach. - Highlights: • REACH encourages the use of in silico methods in the assessment of chemicals safety. • The performances of nine BCF models were evaluated on a benchmark database of 851 chemicals. • We compared the models on the basis of both regression and classification performance. • Statistics on chemicals out of the training set and/or within the applicability domain were compiled. • The results show that QSAR models are useful as weight-of-evidence in support to other methods.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Optimization of greenhouse gas emissions in second-hand consumer product recovery through reuse platforms
Highlights: • Effects of waste diversion on flow of products to reuse processes. • Framework for solid waste management that focuses on reuse processes for waste diversion. • Application of framework on the material flow and GHG emissions from clothing reuse. - Abstract: Product reuse in the solid waste management sector is promoted as one of the key strategies for waste prevention. This practice is considered to have favorable impact on the environment, but its benefits have yet to be established. Existing research describes the perspective of “avoided production” only, but has failed to examine the interdependent nature of reuse practices within an entire solid waste management system. This study proposes a new framework that uses optimization to minimize the greenhouse gas emissions of an integrated solid waste management system that includes reuse strategies and practices such as reuse enterprises, online platforms, and materials exchanges along with traditional solid waste management practices such as recycling, landfilling, and incineration. The proposed framework uses material flow analysis in combination with an optimization model to provide the best outcome in terms of GHG emissions by redistributing product flows in the integrated solid waste management system to the least impacting routes and processes. The optimization results provide a basis for understanding the contributions of reuse to the environmental benefits of the integrated solid waste management system and the exploration of the effects of reuse activities on waste prevention. A case study involving second-hand clothing is presented to illustrate the implementation of the proposed framework as applied to the material flow. Results of the case study showed the considerable impact of reuse on GHG emissions even for small replacement rates, and helped illustrate the interdependency of the reuse sector with other waste management practices. One major contribution of this study is the development of a framework centered on product reuse that can be applied to identify the best management strategies to reduce the environmental impact of product disposal and to increase recovery of reusable products.
12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
arco (Assembled Resource-Constrained Optimization) [SWR-26-030]
Arco (Assembled Resource-Constrained Optimization) is a memory-smart optimization DSL and solver for LP and MIP problems on constrained hardware. The software is an optimization framework built around a KDL-based domain-specific language and a CLI compiler/solver. You write optimization models in .kdl files, and the arco CLI compiles, validates, inspects, and solves them. Language bindings (Python today, more planned) provide programmatic access to the same engine. Built for harder optimization problems on constrained resources, Arco is intentional about every allocation, careful with stack and heap behavior, and relentless about minimizing memory usage so more systems can run real workloads. Arco is built primarily for internal use within our organization. You are welcome to try it, but we make no guarantees about API stability or robustness at this stage
Sanchez Perez, Pedro Andres [National Laboratory o↗
Applications of the Dulmage–Mendelsohn decomposition for debugging nonlinear optimization problems
Nonlinear modeling and optimization is a valuable tool for aiding decisions by engineering practitioners, but programming an optimization problem based on a complex electrical, mechanical, or chemical process is a time-consuming and error-prone activity. Therefore, there is a need for model analysis and debugging tools that can detect and diagnose modeling errors. One such tool is the Dulmage–Mendelsohn decomposition, which identifies structurally under- and over-determined subsets in systems of equations and variables by partitioning the bipartite graph of the system. This work provides the necessary background to understand the Dulmage–Mendelsohn decomposition and its application to the analysis of nonlinear optimization problems, demonstrates its use in diagnosing a variety of modeling errors, and introduces software implementations for analyzing nonlinear optimization problems in the Pyomo and JuMP algebraic modeling languages.
42 ENGINEERING↗
Bottom-up coarse-grained models with predictive accuracy and transferability for both structural and thermodynamic properties of heptane-toluene mixtures
This work investigates the promise of a “bottom-up” extended ensemble framework for developing coarse-grained (CG) models that provide predictive accuracy and transferability for describing both structural and thermodynamic properties. We employ a force-matching variational principle to determine system-independent, i.e., transferable, interaction potentials that optimally model the interactions in five distinct heptane-toluene mixtures. Similarly, we employ a self-consistent pressure-matching approach to determine a system-specific pressure correction for each mixture. The resulting CG potentials accurately reproduce the site-site rdfs, the volume fluctuations, and the pressure equations of state that are determined by all-atom (AA) models for the five mixtures. Furthermore, we demonstrate that these CG potentials provide similar accuracy for additional heptane-toluene mixtures that were not included their parameterization. Surprisingly, the extended ensemble approach improves not only the transferability but also the accuracy of the calculated potentials. Additionally, we observe that the required pressure corrections strongly correlate with the intermolecular cohesion of the system-specific CG potentials. Moreover, this cohesion correlates with the relative “structure” within the corresponding mapped AA ensemble. Finally, the appendix demonstrates that the self-consistent pressure-matching approach corresponds to minimizing an appropriate relative entropy.
37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
A robust dynamic state estimation approach against model errors caused by load changes
Dynamic state estimation (DSE) plays an important role in power system security monitoring and online control. In practice, there are two approaches to implementing DSE. The first approach is distributed DSE, which is based on the assumption that the terminal bus of each generator can be measured by PMUs (phasor measurement units). The assumption cannot be satisfied currently, however, because PMUs usually are installed at important high-voltage buses such as 500-kV buses installed in portions of the grid overseen by the Western Electricity Coordinating Council. Another issue of this approach is that performance of DSE is vulnerable to bad measurement data. The reason for this vulnerability is that DSE is performed separately through measurements at each terminal bus, and measurements at terminal buses are the only measurement upon which DSE can rely. Therefore, important redundant measurements are not included in this approach. The second approach is centralized DSE. This approach does not have the requirement for PMU location, and redundant measurements can be considered fully. However, load changes and grid topology changes impact centralized DSE. In this paper, we propose a new approach for handling the impact of load changes on DSE. We have developed a new algorithm that includes two sequential steps. In the first step, errors caused by load changes are detected by analyzing the difference between prediction results and measured results. In the second step, once model error is detected, a model optimization procedure is run to correct the error so the state estimation error can be mitigated. Simulation results from the IEEE 68 bus system show that the proposed approach can effectively handle model errors caused by load changes.
robust dynamic state estimation, load change, powe↗
SU-E-P-16: A Feasibility Study of Using Eclipse AAA for SRS Treatement
Purpose: To commission Varian Eclipse AAA for SRS treatment and compare the accuracy with Brainlab iPlan system for clinical cases measured with radiochromic film. Methods: A 6MV AAA clinical model for a Varian TrueBeam STx is used as baseline. The focal spot and field size of the baseline model(BASE) are (1.75,0.75) and 40×40cm{sup 2} respectively. Maximum field sizes, output factors(S{sub t}), FWHM focal spot and secondary source sizes are systematically adjusted to obtain an optimized model(OPT) by comparing the calculated PDD’s, profiles, and output factors with measurements taken with a stereotactic diode(SD) and, cc01 and cc04 ion chambers in Blue Phantom. In-phantom dose distributions of clinical SRS fields are calculated using the OPT and the clinical Brainlab iPlan pencil-beam. Within the 90% isodose-line(ROI), the average dose difference between the calculations and radiochromic film measurements are assessed. Results: The maximum field, focal spot and secondary source sizes for the OPT are 15×15cm{sup 2}, (0,0), and 32.3mm respectively. The OPT St input at 1.0 and 2.0cm fields are increased by 4.5% and 1.5% from BASE. The calculated output of the BASE and OPT underestimate by 16.1%–3.2% respectively at 0.5×0.5cm{sup 2} field and 3.1%−0.02% respectively at 1.0×1.0cm{sup 2} field. The depth doses at 10cm are within 3.5% and 0.4% of measurements for 0.5×0.5 and 1.0×1.0cm{sup 2}. The ROI dose of OPT and iPlan are within 1.6% and 0.6% of film measurements for 3.0cm clinical fields. For 1.0cm fields, the ROI dose of OPT underestimate 0.0–2.0% and iPlan overestimates 1.7–2.9% relative to measurements. Conclusion: The small field dose calculation of Eclipse AAA algorithm can be significantly improved by carefully adjusting the input parameters. The larger deviation of the OPT for 0.5×0.5cm{sup 2} field from measurements can be attributed to the lowest 1.0cm field size input limit of AAA. The OPT compares reasonably well with the iPlan pencil-beam and measurements.
60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
Thermodynamics-guided machine learning model for predicting convective boundary layer height and its multi-site applicability
Accurate estimation of convective boundary layer height (CBLH) is vital for weather, climate, and air quality modeling. Machine learning (ML) shows promise in CBLH prediction, but input parameter selection often lacks physical grounding, limiting generalizability. This study introduces a novel ML framework for CBLH prediction, integrating thermodynamic constraints and the diurnal CBLH cycle as an implicit physical guide. Boundary layer growth is modeled as driven by surface heat fluxes and atmospheric heat absorption represented with the low tropospheric stability, using the diurnal cycle as input and output. TPOT and AutoKeras are employed to select optimal models, validated against Doppler lidar-derived CBLH data, achieving an R 2 of 0.84 across untrained years. Comparisons of eddy covariance (ECOR) and energy balance Bowen ratio (EBBR) flux measurements show the same prediction capability. Models trained on the ARM SGP C1 site with ECOR data and tested at E37 and E39 yield R 2 values of 0.79 and 0.81, respectively, demonstrating their adaptability. The ML model trained with all sites' data slightly enhances the performance compared with ML models trained over single-site data. The interquartile range for predicted CBLH is consistently narrower than that for DL-derived CBLH, reflecting lower variability in predicted CBLH compared to DL-derived CBLH, which is influenced by additional factors, which are not well represented with the model inputs. The model's generalizability across multiple sites at the ARM SGP site demonstrates its potential for transfer to greater distances, offering a scalable approach for enhancing boundary layer parameterization in atmospheric models.
Chu, Yufei [Stony Brook Univ., NY (United States)]↗
STOCHASTIC OPTIMIZATION FOR LONG TERM CAPITAL STRUCTURES, SYSTEMS, AND COMPONENTS REFURBISHMENT AND REPLACEMENT
As commercial nuclear power plants (NPPs) pursue extended plant operations in the form of Second License Renewals (SLRs), opportunities exist for these plants to provide capital investments to ensure long-term, safe, and economic performance. Several utilities have already announced their intention to pursue extended operations for one or more of their NPPs via SLR2. The goal of this research is to develop a riskinformed approach to evaluate and prioritize plant capital investments made in preparation for, and during the period of, extended plant operations to support decisions in NPP operations. In order to prioritize project selection via a riskinformed approach we developed a single decision-making tool that integrates safety/reliability, cost, and stochastic optimization models to provide users with data analysis capabilities to more cost effectively manage plant assets. Both stochastic analysis methods—such as Monte Carlo-based sampling strategies—and multi-stage stochastic optimization strategies are employed to provide priority lists to decisionmakers in support of risk-informed decisions. We applied the proposed method to a trial application of projected replacement/refurbishment expenditures for plant capital assets (i.e., Structures, Systems, and Components [SSCs]). The objective is to optimize the SSC replacement/refurbishment schedule in terms of economic constraints, data uncertainties, and SSC reliability data, as well to generate a priority list for maximizing returns on investment.
42 ENGINEERING↗
Skeletal model reduction with forced optimally time dependent modes
Skeletal model reduction based on local sensitivity analysis of time dependent systems is presented in which sensitivities are modeled by forced optimally time dependent (f-OTD) modes. The f-OTD factorizes the sensitivity coefficient matrix into a compressed format as the product of two skinny matrices, i.e. f-OTD modes and f-OTD coefficients. The modes create a low-dimensional, time dependent, orthonormal basis which capture the directions of the phase space associated with most dominant sensitivities. These directions highlight the instantaneous active species, and reaction paths. Evolution equations for the f-OTD modes and coefficients are derived, and the implementation of f-OTD for skeletal reduction is described. For demonstration, skeletal reduction is conducted of the constant pressure ethylene-air burning in a zero-dimensional reactor, and new reduced models are generated. The laminar flame speed, the ignition delay, and the extinction curve as predicted by the models are compared against some existing skeletal models in literature for the same detailed model. Finally, the results demonstrate the capability of f-OTD to eliminate unimportant reactions and species in a systematic, efficient and accurate manner.
42 ENGINEERING↗