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At least 757 records · Page 42

Switching off hydrogen-bond-driven excitation modes in liquid methanol

Hydrogen bonding plays an essential role on intermolecular forces, and consequently on the thermodynamics of materials defined by this elusive bonding character. It determines the property of a vital liquid as water as well as many processes crucial for life. The longstanding controversy on the nature of the hydrogen bond (HB) can be settled by looking at the effect of a vanishing HB interaction on the microscopic properties of a given hydrogen-bonded fluid. This task suits the capabilities of computer simulations techniques, which allow to easily switch off HB interactions. We then use molecular dynamics to study the microscopic properties of methanol, a prototypical HB liquid. Fundamental aspects of the dynamics of methanol at room temperature were contextualised only very recently and its rich dynamics was found to have striking analogies with that of water. The lower temperature (200 K) considered in the present study led us to observe that the molecular centre-of-mass dynamics is dominated by four modes. Most importantly, the computational ability to switch on and off hydrogen bonds permitted us to identify which, among these modes, have a pure HB-origin. This clarifies the role of hydrogen bonds in liquid dynamics, disclosing new research opportunities and unexplored interpretation schemes.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

The MCNP6 Analytic Criticality Benchmark Suite

Analytical benchmarks provide an invaluable tool for verifying computer codes used to simulate neutron transport. Several collections of analytical benchmark problems [1-4] are used routinely in the verification of production Monte Carlo codes such as MCNP® [5,6]. Verification of a computer code is a necessary prerequisite to the more complex validation process. The verification process confirms that a code performs its intended functions correctly. The validation process involves determining the absolute accuracy of code results vs. nature. In typical validations, results are computed for a set of benchmark experiments using a particular methodology (code, cross-section data with uncertainties, and modeling) and compared to the measured results from the set of benchmark experiments. The validation process determines bias, bias uncertainty, and possibly additional margins. Verification is generally performed by the code developers, while validation is generally performed by code users for a particular application space. The VERIFICATION_KEFF suite of criticality problems [1,2] was originally a set of 75 criticality problems found in the literature for which exact analytical solutions are available. Even though the spatial and energy detail is necessarily limited in analytical benchmarks, typically to a few regions or energy groups, the exact solutions obtained can be used to verify that the basic algorithms, mathematics, and methods used in complex production codes perform correctly. The present work has focused on revisiting this benchmark suite. A thorough review of the problems resulted in discarding some of them as not suitable for MCNP benchmarking. For the remaining problems, many of them were reformulated to permit execution in either multigroup mode or in the normal continuous-energy mode for MCNP. Execution of the benchmarks in continuous-energy mode provides a significant advance to MCNP verification methods.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

West Valley Demonstration Project (WVDP) Annual Site Environmental Report (ASER) for Calendar Year 2017

West Valley Demonstration Project (WVDP) Annual Site Environmental Report (ASER) for Calendar Year 2017. The report, prepared for the U.S. Department of Energy West Valley Demonstration Project office (DOE-WVDP), summarizes the environmental protection program at the WVDP for calendar year (CY) 2017. Monitoring and surveillance of the facilities used by the DOE are conducted to verify protection of public health and safety and the environment. The report is a key component of DOE’s effort to keep the public informed of environmental conditions at the WVDP. The quality assurance protocols applied to the environmental monitoring program ensure the validity and accuracy of the monitoring data. In addition to demonstrating compliance with environmental laws, regulations, and directives, evaluation of data collected in 2017 continued to indicate that WVDP activities pose no threat to public health or safety, or to the environment.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

West Valley Demonstration Project (WVDP) Annual Site Environmental Report (ASER) for Calendar Year 2021

The report, prepared for the U.S. Department of Energy West Valley Demonstration Project office (DOE-WVDP), summarizes the environmental protection program at the WVDP for calendar year (CY) 2021. Monitoring and surveillance of the facilities used by the DOE are conducted to verify protection of public health and safety and the environment. The report is a key component of DOE’s effort to keep the public informed of environmental conditions at the WVDP. The quality assurance protocols applied to the environmental monitoring program ensure the validity and accuracy of the monitoring data. In addition to demonstrating compliance with environmental laws, regulations, and directives, evaluation of data collected in 2021 continued to indicate that WVDP activities pose no threat to public health or safety, or to the environment.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Roadmap to Advance Heliostat Technologies for High Temperature Solar-Thermal Systems

Since its establishment, the Heliostat Consortium (HelioCon) has made substantial progress toward closing many of the gaps in concentrating solar power (CSP) research. Numerous techno-economic studies have been performed, investigating topics ranging from the trade-off between size and temperature for industrial process heat applications to optimization of the heliostat design itself for various applications. Significant improvements have been made in optical metrology techniques, with first steps toward in situ measurement of heliostat fields. Several standards have been, and continue to be, developed with the coordination of an international group of CSP industry participants. Training programs have been developed, with universities including CSP in their engineering curricula, and many public webinars have been held to provide broad access to the latest CSP research. Improved CSP components such as mirror facets and wireless communication systems have been developed, and the solar tower at Sandia National Laboratories has been upgraded with a testbed for closed-loop controls research and development. Field deployment challenges involving heliostat foundations and sensitive wildlife habitats have been explored, with progress made toward methods for streamlining project development and permitting. Additional knowledge has been added to the body of work on wind behavior of heliostats and arrays of heliostats, with progress made toward a holistic understanding of wind design methods. Finally, techniques have been developed and demonstrated for assessing soiling conditions at a proposed project site, with predictive models for the soiling rate showing good results. Taking these results together, HelioCon has contributed greatly to the global CSP research and development effort over the past several years.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Southwest Regional Partnership on Carbon Sequestration: Phase III (Final Scientific/Technical Report)

The Southwest Regional Partnership on Carbon Sequestration (SWP) is one of 7 regional partnerships formed in 2003 under the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnerships (RCSPs) initiative. The overall purpose of the initiative was to help determine and implement the technology, infrastructure, and regulations most appropriate to promote carbon storage in different regions of the country. Covering Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Utah, and parts of Texas, Wyoming, and Kansas, the SWP evaluated regional carbon storage and utilization potential and focused on technologies and sites that could complement the region’s strong position in energy production. The project progressed through three phases: • Phase I (2003–2005): Characterized regional geologic formations and CO 2 sources, assessed sequestration potential, and identified pilot test sites. • Phase II (2005–2013): Conducted small-scale field tests to validate sequestration methods, including geologic and terrestrial projects. • Phase III (2008–2022): Demonstrated large-scale CO 2 injection at a commercial oil field to test monitoring, verification, and long-term storage strategies. This report covers Phase III. The final project site, the Farnsworth Unit (FWU) in Texas, provided real-world testing of reservoir characterization, monitoring, and risk evaluation tools and processes that could be used in any commercial scale carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) project. Extensive data collection and analysis helped refine best practices for reservoir characterization, injection monitoring, and storage verification. The SWP contributed to national databases, DOE best practice manuals, and regional geological assessments to support future sequestration efforts. Key lessons learned include the importance of robust data management, strategic site selection, regulatory navigation, and effective industry collaboration. The project’s findings will inform ongoing and future carbon storage initiatives. Task 1 (Regional Characterization) • The SWP continued to participate in national outreach efforts and NATCARB. • The SWP evaluated multiple potential sites before selecting the FWU as the primary field test location. Task 2 (Public Outreach and Education) • The SWP contributed to national databases, DOE best practice manuals, and regional geological assessments to support future sequestration efforts. Task 3 (Permitting and Regulatory Compliance) • The SWP ensured compliance with federal and state regulations, including National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) requirements. • The SWP obtained all necessary permits for drilling, injection, and monitoring activities. Task 4 (Site Characterization and Planning) • The SWP developed work plans for four key activities: characterization, simulation, monitoring and verification, and risk evaluation. • The SWP collected and synthesized legacy data from multiple sources to build initial static geological models and dynamic reservoir models demonstrating project feasibility. • The SWP conducted an initial risk evaluation and developed mitigation plans. Task 5 (Field Operations and Data Collection) • The SWP drilled, logged, and cored three characterization wells to gather critical subsurface data. • The SWP conducted multiple geophysical surveys, including 3D seismic, crosswell seismic, and vertical seismic profiling, to improve reservoir characterization. Task 6 (Monitoring and Verification) • The SWP performed extensive geological characterization using data from characterization wells and seismic surveys. • The SWP established a surface monitoring network to track CO 2 flux in soil gas, groundwater chemistry, and near-surface atmospheric CO 2 levels. • The SWP built and refined reservoir models to study the effects of relative permeability on simulation behavior and improve calibration with experimental data. Task 7 (Risk Assessment and Model Refinement) • The SWP conducted multiple studies to evaluate reservoir integrity, predict CO 2 plume behavior and improve predictive modeling capabilities. • The SWP refined geological models and used them to enhance the accuracy of simulation models. • The SWP continued quantitative risk assessment of top-ranked risks and strengthened the link between qualitative and quantitative risk methodologies.

02 PETROLEUM↗

A Comparison of the Environmental Effects of Open-Loop and Closed-Loop Pumped Storage Hydropower

Pumped storage hydropower (PSH) capabilities are generally characterized as either open-loop or closed-loop. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) defines open-loop PSH as “continuously connected to a naturally flowing water feature,” and closed-loop PSH as “not continuously connected to a naturally flowing water feature.” All the PSH projects constructed in the United States to date are open-loop, so the potential environmental effects of closed-loop systems are not as well documented as the effects of open-loop systems. To address this knowledge gap, the DOE Water Power Technologies Office, under its HydroWIRES Initiative, has prepared this report to: (1) compare the potential environmental effects of open-loop PSH projects with those of closed-loop PSH projects; (2) describe how these effects are being avoided, minimized, or mitigated at existing projects in other countries and proposed projects in the United States; and (3) discuss the relative significance of the environmental issues. The report begins with a brief introduction on the current status of PSH development in the United States. Next, the report describes the current Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) hydropower licensing process, emphasizing some recent regulatory changes that affect closed-loop PSH development. The report then provides a summary comparison of the environmental effects of constructing and operating open-loop and closed-loop PSH systems and discusses the relative significance of those issues. This comparison and discussion are based on the results of a literature review and a review of FERC licensing records. The literature review includes journal articles, technical reports, and presentations on the environmental effects of PSH systems. It includes literature from the United States as well as countries where closed-loop PSH projects have been constructed. The FERC records review examines the FERC licensing record (e.g., National Environmental Policy Act documents and license orders) to identify the environmental effects anticipated and mitigation measures proposed for six of the closed-loop PSH projects currently licensed or permitted in the United States. For comparison, the FERC records review also discusses the environmental effects and mitigation measures for four open-loop PSH projects proposed or currently operating in the United States. The comparison of effects between open-loop and closed-loop projects is relative; that is, it characterizes the impacts of each project type as generally lower or higher than another project type. The comparison reflects general trends among project types because there are sometimes exceptions to the examples cited. The comparison is based on both spatial (location) and temporal (duration) factors and reflects both the severity and likelihood of effects. The report concludes that the environmental effects of closed-loop PSH projects are generally lower (i.e., more localized and of shorter duration) than those of open-loop PSH projects because they are located “off-stream,” minimizing aquatic and terrestrial impacts, and often have greater siting flexibility than open-loop PSH projects. For certain closed-loop project designs, however, impacts to groundwater may be higher relative to open-loop projects and should be considered in any environmental review.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Rapid Evaluation Framework for the CMIP7 Assessment Fast Track

As Earth system models (ESMs) grow in complexity and in volume of output data, there is an increasing need for rapid, comprehensive evaluation of their scientific performance. The upcoming Assessment Fast Track for the Seventh Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP7) will require expeditious response for model analyses designed to inform and drive integrated Earth system assessments. To meet this challenge, the Rapid Evaluation Framework (REF), a community-driven platform for benchmarking and performance assessment of ESMs, was designed and developed. The initial implementation of the REF, constructed to meet the near-term needs of the CMIP7 Assessment Fast Track, builds upon four disparate community evaluation and benchmarking tools that are coupled together using the Coordinated Model Evaluation Capabilities (CMEC) framework. The REF runs within a containerized workflow for portability and reproducibility and is aimed at generating and organizing diagnostics covering a variety of model variables. The REF leverages well documented observational datasets to provide assessments of model fidelity across a collection of diagnostics. All diagnostics were identified and selected with community involvement and consultation. Operational integration with the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) will permit automated execution of the REF for selected diagnostics as soon as model output data are published on ESGF by the originating modeling centers. The REF is designed to be portable across a range of current computational platforms to facilitate use by modeling centers for assessing the evolution of model versions or gauging the relative performance of CMIP simulations before being published on ESGF. When integrated into production simulation workflows, results from the REF provide immediate quantitative feedback that allows model developers and scientists to quickly identify model biases and performance issues. After the REF is released to the community, its subsequent development and support will be prioritized by an international consortium of scientists and engineers, enabling a broader impact across Earth science disciplines. For instance, the REF will facilitate improvements to models and will enhance confidence in model projections through process-based selection of models based on their performance with respect to observations. Production of reproducible diagnostics and community-based assessments are key features of the REF. Furthermore, providing interoperability with existing evaluation packages assures that contributions from previous community efforts will be available for use in future model intercomparison projects.

Hoffman, Forrest [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000158024134)↗

Towards a quantitative understanding of bonding in supersonic single particle impacts: A three-dimensional FIB-SEM exploration

Particle bonding is crucial to coating quality in cold spray, but it has been a challenge to accurately quantify bonding even in single particle impacts. This paper uses FIB-SEM to explicitly map the particle-substrate interface for Cu-on-Cu single microparticle impacts in a full 3D rendering that spans a wide range of impact velocities. This approach permits a detailed quantification of the total bonding area and all of its associated components. In addition to revealing why prior 2D characterization efforts have missed important details about impact bonding, these data quantitatively reveal the evolution of bonding from its onset at the “critical velocity” V cr (where bonding is generally poor, ∼6 %) to its peak at around 1.3‧V cr (where almost 90 % of the particle bonds). Further increase in the velocity to 1.5‧V cr and beyond finds the onset of hydrodynamic penetration and a decrease in bonding. These data then support the development of a simple analytical model based on oxide rarefication and extrusion of bare metal through gaps in the oxide layer as driving the development of bonding. As a result, the model reproduces the experiments and provides guidance on optimization of bonding as a function of material and process parameters.

Analytical methods↗

The Physics behind Precipitation Onset Bias in CMIP6 Models: The Pseudo-Entrainment Diagnostic and Trade-Offs between Lapse Rate and Humidity

Conditional instability and the buoyancy of plumes drive moist convection but have a variety of representations in model convective schemes. Vertical thermodynamic structure information from Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) sites and reanalysis (ERA5), satellite-derived precipitation (TRMM3b42), and diagnostics relevant for plume buoyancy are used to assess climate models. Previous work has shown that CMIP6 models represent moist convective processes more accurately than their CMIP5 counterparts. However, certain biases in convective onset remain pervasive among generations of CMIP modeling efforts. Here we diagnose these biases in a cohort of nine CMIP6 models with sub-daily output, assessing conditional instability in profiles of equivalent potential temperature θ e and saturation equivalent potential temperature θ es in comparison to a plume model with different mixing assumptions. Most models capture qualitative aspects of the θ es vertical structure, including a substantial decrease with height in the lower free troposphere associated with the entrainment of subsaturated air. We define a “pseudo-entrainment” diagnostic that combines subsaturation and a θ es measure of conditional instability similar to what entrainment would produce under the small-buoyancy approximation. This captures the trade-off between larger θ es lapse rates (entrainment of dry air) and small subsaturation (permits positive buoyancy despite high entrainment). This pseudo-entrainment diagnostic is also a reasonable indicator of the critical value of integrated buoyancy for precipitation onset. Models with poor θ e /θ es structure (those using variants of the Tiedtke Scheme) or low entrainment runs of CAM5, and models with low subsaturation, such as NASA-GISS, lie outside the observational range in this diagnostic.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Scaling Equitable Finance

Driven by dramatic declines in up-front cost, the U.S. solar photovoltaics (PV) industry has taken off over the past decade, growing from 1 gigawatt of installed capacity in 2009 to 89 gigawatts in 2020—or enough capacity to power roughly 19 million homes. The industry is expected to double in size over just the next 5 years.1 Much of the growth has been driven by large, utility-scale projects that can produce 5 mega- watts or more of power—enough to power at least 1,000 homes. The cost of electricity produced by these projects has decreased by more than 70 percent since 2010. As of Q3 2020, development costs of large, util- ity-scale solar PV power plants were under $1 per watt, down by more than 70 percent from 2010.2 A robust array of investors has come forward to efficiently deliver capital to these kinds of utility-scale projects including large banks, insurance companies, pension funds, and others. But low- and moderate-income communities, including communities of color, are at risk of being left behind in the transition to clean energy. Mission- driven solar project developers and financial institu- tions have been working alongside energy justice advocates to open up solar access for these communi- ties, using strategies ranging from community solar, to solar installations on affordable multifamily housing, to distributed solar and storage programs, and more. Their goals go beyond simply generating more green energy to advancing social equity by: • empowering communities to control their energy future • stabilizing energy prices, saving money, and build- ing wealth for low-income families • creating quality jobs • improving health by reducing pollution • providing energy resilience for vulnerable communities Mission-driven actors are successfully deploying a wide variety of strategies to meet these goals, from helping low-income homeowners get solar—and some- times battery storage, to developing solar projects serv- ing affordable rental housing and community facilities, to building larger “shared solar” projects to which households from across the community can subscribe. However, the financing ecosystem does not work nearly as well for these “mission driven” solar proj- ects as it does for utility-scale projects. For home rooftop solar, even if low-income consumers have a home and suitable roof, they may fail to qualify for federal tax incentives, lack adequate credit to qualify for a loan—or the mission-driven lenders seeking to serve them may not be adequately capitalized to make long-term loans. For mission-driven commercial or community-scale projects, assembling nearly every component of the project capital stack—whether bridging early-stage costs, attracting tax credit equity investors, securing long-term debt, or coming up with sponsor equity and filling gaps—can present challenges. A variety of obstacles contribute to the scarcity of financing for low-income solar, including small project sizes, lack of developer balance sheet capacity, both real and perceived issues with credit risk, elevated technical assistance needs, and greater subsidy requirements to pursue goals such as deep energy affordability, climate resilience, or job creation. Still other obstacles are regulatory: for example, not all states allow community solar projects or Power Purchase Agreements, common strategies used for providing low-income solar—and the potential for regulations to shift over time creates risks that mission-driven projects can ill afford. This report synthesizes information garnered from 47 key informant interviews, four focus group discus- sions involving 60 stakeholders, and a review of the substantial existing literature on low-income solar finance to assess the current landscape of mission- driven solar development in the United States, examine the roles that community-based financial institutions could play, and recommend public invest- ments and policy changes that could help to scale the provision of equitable solar finance. Key recommen- dations for policymakers and funders in the renew- able energy and community development fields that emerge from this process include the following: • Help to capitalize and support community-based lenders to provide flexible, low-cost, and long- term financing to mission-driven solar projects— including providing guarantees or other forms of credit enhancement. • Provide federal support for equitable solar, including a grant-in-lieu-of-credits option for the Investment Tax Credit to improve access to this critical government subsidy. • Develop pools of government and philanthropic support that can complement financing from community-based lenders to complete the capi- tal stack for mission-driven projects, as well as to support education and technical assistance to both consumers and potential project sponsors. • Create a national Renewable Energy Credits pro- gram that includes social equity targets to provide a baseline of support for clean energy generation. • Change utility regulations to remove barriers to low-income solar projects; lower permitting costs; provide greater certainty for developers, consumers and owners; and measure progress toward equity in renewable energy policy implementation.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Measurement and simulation of heat exchange in fractured bedrock using inert and thermally degrading tracers

Multicomponent groundwater tracer tests were conducted in a well-characterized field site in Altona, NY using inert carbon-cored nanoparticles and a thermally degrading phenolic compound. Experiments were conducted in a mesoscale reservoir consisting of a single subhorizontal bedding plane fracture located 7.6 m below ground surface contained between two wells separated by 14.1 m. The reservoir rock, initially at 11.78C, was heated using 748C water. During the heating process, a series of tracer tests using thermally degrading tracers were used to characterize the progressive in situ heating of the fracture. Fiber-Optic Distributed Temperature Sensing (FODTS) was used to measure temperature rise orthogonal to the fracture surface at 10 locations. Recovery of the thermally degrading tracer’s product was increased as the reservoir was progressively heated indicating that the advancement of the thermal front was proportional to the mass fraction of the thermally degrading tracer recovered. Both GPR imaging and FODTS measurements reveal that flow was reduced to a narrow channel which directly connected the two wells and led to rapid thermal breakthrough. Computational modeling of inert tracer and heat transport in a two-dimensional discrete fracture demonstrate that subsurface characterization using inert tracers alone could not uniquely characterize the Altona field site. However, the inclusion of a thermally degrading tracer may permit accurate subsurface temperature monitoring. At the Altona field site, however, fluid-rock interactions appear to have increased reaction rates relative to laboratory-based measurements made in the absence of rock surfaces.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

West Valley Demonstration Project (WVDP) Annual Site Environmental Report (ASER) for Calendar Year 2020

West Valley Demonstration Project (WVDP) Annual Site Environmental Report (ASER) for Calendar Year 2020. The report, prepared for the U.S. Department of Energy West Valley Demonstration Project office (DOE-WVDP), summarizes the environmental protection program at the WVDP for calendar year (CY) 2020. Monitoring and surveillance of the facilities used by the DOE are conducted to verify protection of public health and safety and the environment. The report is a key component of DOE’s effort to keep the public informed of environmental conditions at the WVDP. The quality assurance protocols applied to the environmental monitoring program ensure the validity and accuracy of the monitoring data. In addition to demonstrating compliance with environmental laws, regulations, and directives, evaluation of data collected in 2020 continued to indicate that WVDP activities pose no threat to public health or safety, or to the environment.

Resource Conservation and Recovery Act↗

Subsurface Flow Across Polygonal Tundra Measured by Bromide Tracer, Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska, 2015-2016

A bromide tracer study with the primary focus on hydrology in the active layer of polygonal tundra in the Barrow Environmental Observatory in Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska from July 2015 to September 2016. Sampling devices placed at various depths in the polygon centers, rims, and troughs were used to monitor tracer concentrations during thaw seasons. The tracer was continually monitored simultaneously on a low- and high-centered polygon throughout thaw seasons. Included is one data file of the bromide tracer concentrations. Also included are measurements taken throughout the experiment - one data file each of frost table depth and precipitation; and twelve water table elevation data files. Water level data, meteorological data, and thaw depth measurements were taken throughout the experiment. Our approach permits a comparison of hydrological behaviors in low- and high-centered polygons over the same time period and meteorological conditions.The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a 10-year research effort (2012-2022) to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research.The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska.Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Economic implications of incorporating emission controls to mitigate air pollutants emitted from a modeled hydrocarbon-fuel biorefinery in the United States

The implementation of the US Renewable Fuel Standard is expected to increase the construction and operation of new biofuel facilities. Allowing this industry to grow without adversely affecting air quality is an important sustainability goal sought by multiple stakeholders. However, little is known about how the emission controls potentially required to comply with air quality regulations might impact biorefinery cost and deployment strategies such as siting and sizing. In this study, we use a baseline design for a lignocellulosic hydrocarbon biofuel production process to assess how the integration of emission controls impacts the minimum fuel selling price (MFSP) of the biofuel produced. We evaluate the change in MFSP for two cases as compared to the baseline design by incorporating (i) emission controls that ensure compliance with applicable federal air regulations and (ii) advanced control options that could be used to achieve potential best available control technology (BACT) emission limits. Our results indicate that compliance with federal air regulations can be achieved with minimal impact on biofuel cost (~$0.02 per gasoline gallon equivalent (GGE) higher than the baseline price of $5.10 GGE -1 ). However, if air emissions must be further reduced to meet potential BACT emission limits, the cost could increase nontrivially. For example, the MFSP could increase to $5.50 GGE -1 by adopting advanced emission controls to meet potential boiler BACT limits. Finally, given tradeoffs among emission control costs, permitting requirements, and economies of scale, these results could help inform decisions about biorefinery siting and sizing and mitigate risks associated with air permitting.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Evaluation of Nuclear Spent Fuel Disposal in Clay-Bearing Rock - Process Model Development and Experimental Studies

The DOE R&D program under the Spent Fuel Waste Science Technology (SFWST) campaign has made key progress in modeling and experimental approaches towards the characterization of chemical and physical phenomena that could impact the long-term safety assessment of heat-generating nuclear waste disposition in deep clay/shale/argillaceous rock. International collaboration activities such as heater tests and postmortem analysis of samples recovered from these have elucidated key information regarding changes in the engineered barrier system (EBS) material exposed to years of thermal loads. Chemical and structural analyses of sampled bentonite material from such tests has as well as experiments conducted on these are key to the characterization of thermal effects affecting bentonite clay barrier performance and the extent of sacrificial zones in the EBS during the thermal period. Thermal, hydrologic, and chemical data collected from heater tests and laboratory experiments has been used in the development, validation, and calibration of THMC simulators to model near-field coupled processes. This information leads to the development of simulation approaches (e.g., continuum vs. discrete) to tackle issues related to flow and transport at various scales of the host-rock and EBS design concept. Consideration of direct disposal of large capacity dual-purpose canisters (DPCs) as part of the back-end SNF waste disposition strategy has generated interest in improving our understanding of the effects of elevated temperatures on the EBS design. This is particularly important for backfilled repository concepts where temperature plays a key role in the EBS behavior and long-term performance. This report describes multiple R&D efforts on disposal in argillaceous geologic media through development and application of coupled THMC process models, experimental studies on clay/metal/cement barrier and host-rock (argillite) material interactions, molecular dynamic (MD) simulations of water transport during (swelling) clay dehydration, first-principles studies of metaschoepite (UO 2 corrosion product) stability, and advances in thermodynamic plus surface complexation database development. Drift-scale URL experiments provides key data for testing hydrological-chemical (HC) model involving strong couplings of fluid mixing and barrier material chemical interactions. The THM modeling focuses on heater test experiments in argillite rock and gas migration in bentonite as part of international collaboration activities at underground research laboratories (URLs). In addition, field testing at an URL involves in situ analysis of fault slip behavior and fault permeability. Pore-scale modeling of gas bubble migration is also being investigated within the gas migration modeling effort. Interaction experiments on bentonite samples from heater test under ambient and elevated temperatures permit the evaluation of ion exchange, phase stability, and mineral transformation changes that could impact clay swelling. Advances in the development, testing, and implementation of a spent nuclear fuel (SNF) degradation model coupled with canister corrosion focus on the effects of hydrogen gas generation and its integration with Geologic Disposal Safety Assessment (GDSA). GDSA integration activities includes evaluation of groundwater chemistries in shale formations.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

PANTHER. Pattern ANalytics To support High-performance Exploitation and Reasoning.

Sandia has approached the analysis of big datasets with an integrated methodology that uses computer science, image processing, and human factors to exploit critical patterns and relationships in large datasets despite the variety and rapidity of information. The work is part of a three-year LDRD Grand Challenge called PANTHER (Pattern ANalytics To support High-performance Exploitation and Reasoning). To maximize data analysis capability, Sandia pursued scientific advances across three key technical domains: (1) geospatial-temporal feature extraction via image segmentation and classification; (2) geospatial-temporal analysis capabilities tailored to identify and process new signatures more efficiently; and (3) domain- relevant models of human perception and cognition informing the design of analytic systems. Our integrated results include advances in geographical information systems (GIS) in which we discover activity patterns in noisy, spatial-temporal datasets using geospatial-temporal semantic graphs. We employed computational geometry and machine learning to allow us to extract and predict spatial-temporal patterns and outliers from large aircraft and maritime trajectory datasets. We automatically extracted static and ephemeral features from real, noisy synthetic aperture radar imagery for ingestion into a geospatial-temporal semantic graph. We worked with analysts and investigated analytic workflows to (1) determine how experiential knowledge evolves and is deployed in high-demand, high-throughput visual search workflows, and (2) better understand visual search performance and attention. Through PANTHER, Sandia's fundamental rethinking of key aspects of geospatial data analysis permits the extraction of much richer information from large amounts of data. The project results enable analysts to examine mountains of historical and current data that would otherwise go untouched, while also gaining meaningful, measurable, and defensible insights into overlooked relationships and patterns. The capability is directly relevant to the nation's nonproliferation remote-sensing activities and has broad national security applications for military and intelligence- gathering organizations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Risk Management and Risk Aversion, from Benefit to Impediment

Risk management is a critical tool for improving the probability of project success by identifying, assessing, prioritizing, and attempting to control threats to project realization. For industries that require high operational reliability due to the potential consequences of off-normal events, such as the nuclear, aerospace, and chemical sectors, a major focus of risk management is the preservation of process safety. Due to the nature of the processes or systems under consideration, the associated process safety analyses (such as risk and safety assessments) and safety features can require significant resources. These costs are typically tolerated either due to the need to satisfy regulatory requirements or based on the assumption that they generally decrease the occurrence of unwanted events and therefore improve the probability of project success. However, as the level of acceptable or tolerable risk from unwanted events decreases, the required resources necessary for ensuring and demonstrating satisfaction of these criteria can grow and in turn can become one of the dominant impediments to project success. This paper outlines a high-level theoretical framework for the consideration of dominant project risks, which includes potential project failure from both the occurrence of high consequence off-normal events and the inability to achieve project completion due to the resource needs and innovation losses associated with extreme risk aversion. Utilizing such an integrated approach permits an attempt to optimize the probability of successful project realization while also providing valuable insight into the proper level of acceptable risk. The work is presented as a first step, in hopes of spurring additional discussion and analysis regarding appropriate levels of risk tolerance and the balance of project benefits.

Grabaskas, David↗