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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS1975

Stochastic control system parameter identifiability

The parameter identification problem of general discrete time, nonlinear, multiple input/multiple output dynamic systems with Gaussian white distributed measurement errors is considered. The knowledge of the system parameterization was assumed to be known. Concepts of local parameter identifiability and local constrained maximum likelihood parameter identifiability were established. A set of sufficient conditions for the existence of a region of parameter identifiability was derived. A computation procedure employing interval arithmetic was provided for finding the regions of parameter identifiability. If the vector of the true parameters is locally constrained maximum likelihood (CML) identifiable, then with probability one, the vector of true parameters is a unique maximal point of the maximum likelihood function in the region of parameter identifiability and the constrained maximum likelihood estimation sequence will converge to the vector of true parameters.

Lee, C. H.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Approximation for Horizontal Photon Transport in Cloud Remote Sensing Problems

The effect of horizontal photon transport within real-world clouds can be of consequence to remote sensing problems based on plane-parallel cloud models. An analytic approximation for the root-mean-square horizontal displacement of reflected and transmitted photons relative to the incident cloud-top location is derived from random walk theory. The resulting formula is a function of the average number of photon scatterings, and particle asymmetry parameter and single scattering albedo. In turn, the average number of scatterings can be determined from efficient adding/doubling radiative transfer procedures. The approximation is applied to liquid water clouds for typical remote sensing solar spectral bands, involving both conservative and non-conservative scattering. Results compare well with Monte Carlo calculations. Though the emphasis is on horizontal photon transport in terrestrial clouds, the derived approximation is applicable to any multiple scattering plane-parallel radiative transfer problem. The complete horizontal transport probability distribution can be described with an analytic distribution specified by the root-mean-square and average displacement values. However, it is shown empirically that the average displacement can be reasonably inferred from the root-mean-square value. An estimate for the horizontal transport distribution can then be made from the root-mean-square photon displacement alone.

Plantnick, Steven↗
DOE OSTI2025

Algorithm to extract direction in 2D discrete distributions and a continuous Frobenius norm

In this study, we present a novel algorithm for determining directionality in 2D distributions of discrete data. We compare a reference dataset with a known direction to a measured dataset with an unknown direction by the Frobenius norm of the difference (FND) to find the unknown direction. To generalize this concept, we develop a continuous Frobenius norm of the difference (CFND) as a continuous analog of the FND and derive its analytical expression. By relating fitted and normalized 2D Gaussian distributions, we show that the CFND approximates the FND, and we validate this relationship with computer simulations. We find that a first-order approximation of the CFND between two similar Gaussian distributions takes the form of an absolute sine function, offering a simple analytical form with potential for specialized applications in segmented inverse beta decay (IBD) neutrino detectors, astronomy, machine learning, and more. Although this method may easily extend to 3D scalar fields, our focus here is on 2D real-valued fields as it directly applies to directionality. Our methodology consists of modeling a 2D Gaussian distribution, binning the data into a histogram, and encoding it as a square matrix. Rotating this matrix around its geometric center and comparing it to a measured dataset using the FND gives us rotational data that we fit with an absolute sine function. The location of the minimum of this fit is the angle closest to the true angle of the direction in the measured dataset. We present the derivation and discuss initial applications of the CFND in our novel algorithm, demonstrating its success in approximating directionality in 2D distributions.

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability (physics↗
NASA NTRS2005

Ice photochemistry as a source of amino acids and other organic molecules in meteorites, and implications for the origin of life and the search for life in the Solar System

The tons of extraterrestrial organic material that come to the Earth every day probably helped to made the Earth habitable, and possibly played a role in the origin of life. At the astrochemistry lab (http://www.astrochem.orq) we investigate the formation and distribution of organic molecules in space and consider the impact such molecules may have on the habitability of planets and the search for life in the Solar System. The organic compounds in meteorites include amino acids, aromatics of various sorts including purine and pyrimidine bases, and fatty acids that form bi-layer vesicles. The origin of many of these species remains mysterious, but in recent years we and others have performed experiments that suggest low temperature radiation chemistry could account for the presence and deuterium enrichment of many of these molecules. . I will present our laboratory experiments that show the viability of low temperature radiation chemistry as a source of organic molecules such as;amino acids (Nature, 2002, 416, 401-403), amphiphiles (Astrobiology, 2003, 2, 371, Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci. 2001, 98, 815), quinones (Science, 1999, 283, 1135) and other functionalized aromatic compounds (Meteoritics, 2001, 36, 351 ; Astrophysical Journal., 2003, 582, L25), some of which were invoked as potential biomarkers in the Alan Hills 84001 Martian meteorite. Understanding how components of proteins and DNA could form in sterile space environments is also of relevance to our search for life elsewhere in the Solar System, the great task now ahead of NASA. If we find evidence of Life elsewhere in the Solar System it will probably be in form of chemical biomarkers, quintessentially biological molecules that indicate the presence of micro-organisms. While most people think of molecules such as amino acids, and nucleo-bases as good candidate biomarkers, these molecules are produced non-biotically in space and are expected to be present on the surface of other planets even in the absence of Life. Understanding the range of non-biological organic molecules which could act as false biomarkers in space is a prerequisite for any reasonable search for Life on other worlds.

Bernstein, Max↗
NASA NTRS1991

A rocket tomography measurement of the N2(+) 3914 A emission rates within an auroral arc

A rocket tomography experiment designed to measure the two-dimensional distribution of the N2(+) 3914 A volume emission rates within an auroral arc is described. A simple filter photometer on board a sounding rocket, which was launched during the ARIES auroral campaign, was used to measure the 3914 A aruoral brightnesses at elevation angles ranging from 0 to 360 deg in the plane of the rocket trajectory. The measured auroral brightnesses have been tomographically inverted to recover the local 3914 A volume emissioin rates as a function of both altitude and latitude within the arc. The tomographic inversion procedure, which is based upon a maximum probability algebraic reconstruction approach, is described, and the implications of the results for studies of auroral excitation processes are briefly discussed.

Mcdade, I. C.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Bayesian image reconstruction - The pixon and optimal image modeling

In this paper we describe the optimal image model, maximum residual likelihood method (OptMRL) for image reconstruction. OptMRL is a Bayesian image reconstruction technique for removing point-spread function blurring. OptMRL uses both a goodness-of-fit criterion (GOF) and an 'image prior', i.e., a function which quantifies the a priori probability of the image. Unlike standard maximum entropy methods, which typically reconstruct the image on the data pixel grid, OptMRL varies the image model in order to find the optimal functional basis with which to represent the image. We show how an optimal basis for image representation can be selected and in doing so, develop the concept of the 'pixon' which is a generalized image cell from which this basis is constructed. By allowing both the image and the image representation to be variable, the OptMRL method greatly increases the volume of solution space over which the image is optimized. Hence the likelihood of the final reconstructed image is greatly increased. For the goodness-of-fit criterion, OptMRL uses the maximum residual likelihood probability distribution introduced previously by Pina and Puetter (1992). This GOF probability distribution, which is based on the spatial autocorrelation of the residuals, has the advantage that it ensures spatially uncorrelated image reconstruction residuals.

Pina, R. K.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Interplanetary magnetic field dependency of stable Sun-aligned polar cap arcs

This is the first analysis, using a statistically significant data set, of the morphological dependence of the presence, orientation, and motion of stable sun-aligned polar cap arcs upon the vector interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). For the one winter season analyzed we had 1392 all-sky 630.0-nm images of 2-min resolution containing a total of 150 polar cap arcs, all with corresponding values of the IMF as measured by International Monitoring Platform (IMP) 8 or International Sun Earth Explorer (ISEE) 2. After demonstrating an unbiased data set with smooth normal distributions of events versus the dimensions of time, space, and IMF component, we examine IMF dependencies of the properties of the optical arcs. A well-defined dependence for B(sub z) is found for the presence/absence of stable Sun-aligned polar cap arcs. Consistent with previous statistical studies, the probability of observing polar cap aurora steadily increases for larger positive values of B(sub z), and linearly decreases when B(sub z) becomes more negative. The probability of observing Sun-aligned arcs within the polar cap is determined to vary sharply as a function of the arc location; arcs were observed 40% of the time on the dawnside and only 10% on the duskside. This implies an overall probability of at least 40% for the whole polar cap. 20% of the arcs were observed during 'southward IMF conditions,' but in fact under closer inspection were found to have been formed under northward IMF conditions; these 'residual' positive B(sub z) arcs ha d a delayed residence time in the polar cap of about what would be expected after a north to south transition of B(sub z). A firm dependence on B(sub y) is also found for both the orientation and the dawn-dusk direction of motion of the arcs. All the arcs are Sun-aligned to a first approximation, but present deviations from this orientation, depending primarily upon the location of the arc in corrected geomagnetic (CG) coordinates. The arcs populating the 06-12 and the 12-18 quadrants of the CG coordinate system point toward the cusp. The B(sub y) dependency of the arc alignment is consistent with a cusp displacement in local time according to the sign of B(sub y). We found that the arc direction of motion depended both on B(sub y) and the arc location within the polar cap. For a given value of B(sub y) two well-defined regions (or cells) exist. Within each cell the arcs move in the same direction toward the boundary between the cells. The arcs located in the duskside move dawnward; those in the dawnside move duskward. The relative size of these dusk and dawn regions (or cells) are controlled by the magnitude of B(sub y). This persistent dusk-dawn motion fo the polar cap arcs is interpreted in terms of newly open flux tubes entering the polar cap and exerting a displacement of the convective cells and the polar cap arcs that are embedded within them.

Valladares, C. E.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Microlensing by the galactic bar

We compute the optical depth and duration distribution of microlensing events towrd Baade's window in a model composed of a Galactic disk and a bar. The bar model is a self-consistent dynamical model built out of individual orbits that has been populated to be consistent with the COBE maps of the Galaxy and kinematic observations of the Galactic bulge. We find that most of the lenses are in the bulge with a line-of-sight distance 6.25 kpc (adopting R(sub 0) = 8 kpc). The microlensing optical depth of a 2 x 10(exp 10) solar mass bar plus a truncated disk is (2.2 +/- 0.45) x 10(exp -6), consistent with the large optical depth (3.2 +/- 1.2) x 10(exp -6) found by Udalski et al. (1994). This model optical depth is enhanced over the predictions of axisymmetric models by Kiraga & Paczynski (1994) by slightly more than a factor of 2, since the bar is elongated along the line of sight. The large Einstein radius and small transverse velocity dispersion also predict a longer event duration in the self-consistent bar model than in the Kiraga-Paczynski model. The event rate and duration distribution also depend on the lower mass cutoff of the lens mass function. With a 0.1 solar mass cutoff, five to seven events (depending on the contribution of disk lenses) with a logarithmic mean duration of 20 days are expected for the Optical Gravitational Lensing Experiment (OGLE) according to our model, while Udalski et al. (1994) observed nine events with durations from 8 to 62 days. On the other hand, if most of the lenses are brown dwarfs, our model predicts too many short-duration events. A Kolmogorov-Smirnov test finds only 7% probability for the model with 0.01 solar mass cutoff to be consistent with current data.

Zhao, Hongsheng↗
DOE OSTI2026

Generation of random geological models using multi-randomization for machine learning

Generating high-fidelity geological models is essential for advancing machine learning (ML) methods in automated seismic interpretation. For instance, seismic images paired with corresponding fault labels are foundational for ML-based fault detection from seismic migration sections. While several open-access datasets of random geological models exist, open-source tools specifically designed to produce large volumes of such models for ML applications remain scarce. To address this gap, we present RGM (Random Geological Model), an open-source software package for efficiently generating 2D and 3D synthetic geological models tailored for ML workflows. RGM supports the creation of diverse model components, including medium property distributions (P-/S-wave velocities and density), seismic reflectivity images (i.e., synthetic migration sections), relative geological time, and discrete fault attributes such as probability, dip, strike, rake, and displacement. It also accommodates the creation of complex geological features such as salt bodies and unconformities. The model generation algorithm employs a multi-randomization strategy, yielding an effectively infinite-dimensional model space that encompasses a wide range of geological scenarios and associated seismic features. Furthermore, RGM incorporates a method to generate synthetic elastic migration images using analytical elastic reflection coefficients combined with frequency-dependent scaling. This functionality enables the creation of training datasets for ML models that leverage elastic seismic images. RGM is implemented in modern object-oriented Fortran, allowing users to flexibly control statistical parameters governing model variability. We demonstrate the capability, performance, and geological realism of the package through comprehensive 2D and 3D examples.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1973

Solar proton fluences as observed during 1966-1972 and as predicted for 1977-1983 space missions

The probability with which any given proton fluence level will be exceeded during a space mission is computed for missions to be flown during the active phase of the next solar cycle (1977-1983). This probability is a function of fluence level, proton energy threshold, and mission duration. Data on the major solar proton events of 1966-1972 are given; it is argued that only this data set (and not that of the previous solar cycle) is appropriate for estimating next-cycle fluences. Probable numbers of each of the two types of events are estimated from Burrell's extension of Poisson statistics. Fluences of all future anomalously large events are assumed to have a common spectrum, that given by the August 1972 event. Fluences of the ordinary events are assumed to obey a log normal distribution. It is shown that for much of the confidence-level mission-duration regime of interest, at least one anomalously large event will occur; and given such an occurrence, the ordinary-event contribution to mission fluence is negligible.

King, J. H.↗
NASA NTRS1977

Effects of soil maturation on grain size-dependence of trapped solar gases

A description is presented of a simple two-part model which relates the retention of solar-wind-implanted noble gases and N in different grain sizes of lunar soils to the maturation level of that soil. It is assumed that concentrations of solar-wind gases are implanted into surfaces of soil grains in inverse proportion to grain diameter and that differences in irradiation probability and surface saturation as a function of grain diameter generally are not a major factor. The model demonstrates that incorporation of a major fraction of this surface-correlated gas into constructional particles such as agglutinates causes much of the gas to become volume-correlated in mature soils. This volume-correlated gas produces a relative enrichment in gas concentrations in coarser grains and a selective enrichment of more retentive gases (e.g., N) over less retentive gases (e.g., He). It is shown that the maturity model plays a major role in determining the complexities of the distribution of solar-wind gases in soils.

Bogard, D. D.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Application of Simulated Annealing and Related Algorithms to TWTA Design

Simulated Annealing (SA) is a stochastic optimization algorithm used to search for global minima in complex design surfaces where exhaustive searches are not computationally feasible. The algorithm is derived by simulating the annealing process, whereby a solid is heated to a liquid state and then cooled slowly to reach thermodynamic equilibrium at each temperature. The idea is that atoms in the solid continually bond and re-bond at various quantum energy levels, and with sufficient cooling time they will rearrange at the minimum energy state to form a perfect crystal. The distribution of energy levels is given by the Boltzmann distribution: as temperature drops, the probability of the presence of high-energy bonds decreases. In searching for an optimal design, local minima and discontinuities are often present in a design surface. SA presents a distinct advantage over other optimization algorithms in its ability to escape from these local minima. Just as high-energy atomic configurations are visited in the actual annealing process in order to eventually reach the minimum energy state, in SA highly non-optimal configurations are visited in order to find otherwise inaccessible global minima. The SA algorithm produces a Markov chain of points in the design space at each temperature, with a monotonically decreasing temperature. A random point is started upon, and the objective function is evaluated at that point. A stochastic perturbation is then made to the parameters of the point to arrive at a proposed new point in the design space, at which the objection function is evaluated as well. If the change in objective function values (Delta)E is negative, the proposed new point is accepted. If (Delta)E is positive, the proposed new point is accepted according to the Metropolis criterion: rho((Delta)f) = exp((-Delta)E/T), where T is the temperature for the current Markov chain. The process then repeats for the remainder of the Markov chain, after which the temperature is decremented and the process repeats. Eventually (and hopefully), a near-globally optimal solution is attained as T approaches zero. Several exciting variants of SA have recently emerged, including Discrete-State Simulated Annealing (DSSA) and Simulated Tempering (ST). The DSSA algorithm takes the thermodynamic analogy one step further by categorizing objective function evaluations into discrete states. In doing so, many of the case-specific problems associated with fine-tuning the SA algorithm can be avoided; for example, theoretical approximations for the initial and final temperature can be derived independently of the case. In this manner, DSSA provides a scheme that is more robust with respect to widely differing design surfaces. ST differs from SA in that the temperature T becomes an additional random variable in the optimization. The system is also kept in equilibrium as the temperature changes, as opposed to the system being driven out of equilibrium as temperature changes in SA. ST is designed to overcome obstacles in design surfaces where numerous local minima are separated by high barriers. These algorithms are incorporated into the optimal design of the traveling-wave tube amplifier (TWTA). The area under scrutiny is the collector, in which it would be ideal to use negative potential to decelerate the spent electron beam to zero kinetic energy just as it reaches the collector surface. In reality this is not plausible due to a number of physical limitations, including repulsion and differing levels of kinetic energy among individual electrons. Instead, the collector is designed with multiple stages depressed below ground potential. The design of this multiple-stage collector is the optimization problem of interest. One remaining problem in SA and DSSA is the difficulty in determining when equilibrium has been reached so that the current Markov chain can be terminated. It has been suggested in recent literature that simulating the thermodynamic properties opecific heat, entropy, and internal energy from the Boltzmann distribution can provide good indicators of having reached equilibrium at a certain temperature. These properties are tested for their efficacy and implemented in SA and DSSA code with respect to TWTA collector optimization.

Radke, Eric M.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Management of SSME hardware life utilization

Statistical and probabilistic reliability methodologies were developed for the determination of hardware life limits for the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME). Both methodologies require that a mathematical reliability model of the engine (system) performance be developed as a function of the reliabilities of the components and parts. The system reliability model should be developed from the Failute Modes and Effects Analysis/Critical Items List. The statistical reliability methodology establishes hardware life limits directly from the failure distributions of the components and parts obtained from statistically-designed testing. The probabilistic reliability methodology establishes hardware life limits from a decision analysis methodology which incorporates the component/part reliabilities obtained from a probabilistic structural analysis, a calibrated maintenance program, inspection techniques, and fabrication procedures. Probilistic structural analysis is recommended as a tool to prioritize upgrading of the components and parts. The Weibull probability distribution is presently being investigated by NASA/MSFC to characterize the failure distribution of the SSME hardware from a limited data base of failures.

Pauschke, J. M.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Antitropical distribution and evolution in the Indo-West Pacific Ocean

Antitropical distributions of continental shelf, Indo-West Pacific species are probably not due to transgression of the tropics during the glacial periods, isothermic submergence, island integration, rising Neogene temperatures, or the Mesozoic dispersal of fragments from a Pacific continental mass. Characteristics of common antitropical patterns, plus information from systematic works on a variety on a variety of animal and plant groups, indicate that the long discarded "relict theory" of Theel (1885) appears to best fit the evidence, for it provides a mechanism whereby antitropical distribution may be brought about. The relict theory is compatible with the concept that the East Indies part of the Indo-West Pacific has been functioning as a center of evolutionary origin. It suggests that antitropical and associated disjunct patterns are produced as an older species, that has spread out to occupy a broad range, loses ground and gradually becomes supplanted by a younger species that had subsequently evolved in the East Indies. As this process goes on, the older species becomes restricted to a few isolated localities on the fringe of its original range. These isolates are often found to the north and south of the equatorial region but may include relict populations at the western edge of the Indian Ocean.

NASA Discipline Exobiology↗
DOE OSTI2024

Deciphering the Cofilin Oligomers via Intermolecular Disulfide Bond Formation: A Coarse-Grained Molecular Dynamics Approach to Understanding Cofilin’s Regulation on Actin Filaments

Cofilin, a key actin-binding protein, orchestrates the dynamics of the actomyosin network through its actin-severing activity and by promoting the recycling of actin monomers. Recent experimental work suggests that cofilin also forms functionally distinct oligomers through thiol post-translational modification (PTM) that encourages actin nucleation and assembly. Despite these advances, the structural conformations of cofilin oligomers that modulate actin activity remain elusive because there are combinatorial ways to oxidize thiols in cysteines to form disulfide bonds rapidly. This study employs molecular dynamics simulations to investigate human cofilin 1 as a case study for exploring cofilin dimers via disulfide bond formation. Using the free energy profiling, our simulations unveil a range of probable cofilin dimer structures not represented in current Protein Data Bank entries. These candidate dimers are characterized by their distinct population distributions and relative free energies. Of particular note is a dimer featuring an interface between cysteines 139 and 147 residues, which demonstrates stable free energy characteristics and intriguingly symmetrical geometry. In contrast, the experimentally proposed dimer structure exhibits a less stable free energy profile. Here, we also evaluate frustration quantification based on the energy landscape theory in the protein-protein interactions at the dimer interfaces. Notably, the 39-39 dimer configuration emerges as a promising candidate for forming cofilin tetramers, as substantiated by frustration analysis. Additionally, docking simulations with actin filaments further evaluate the stability of these cofilin dimer-actin complexes. Our findings thus offer a computational framework for understanding the role of thiol post-translational modification cofilin proteins in regulating oligomerization, and the subsequent cofilin-mediated actin dynamics in the actomyosin network.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS2015

Reliability and Probabilistic Risk Assessment - How They Play Together

Since the Space Shuttle Challenger accident in 1986, NASA has extensively used probabilistic analysis methods to assess, understand, and communicate the risk of space launch vehicles. Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), used in the nuclear industry, is one of the probabilistic analysis methods NASA utilizes to assess Loss of Mission (LOM) and Loss of Crew (LOC) risk for launch vehicles. PRA is a system scenario based risk assessment that uses a combination of fault trees, event trees, event sequence diagrams, and probability distributions to analyze the risk of a system, a process, or an activity. It is a process designed to answer three basic questions: 1) what can go wrong that would lead to loss or degraded performance (i.e., scenarios involving undesired consequences of interest), 2) how likely is it (probabilities), and 3) what is the severity of the degradation (consequences). Since the Challenger accident, PRA has been used in supporting decisions regarding safety upgrades for launch vehicles. Another area that was given a lot of emphasis at NASA after the Challenger accident is reliability engineering. Reliability engineering has been a critical design function at NASA since the early Apollo days. However, after the Challenger accident, quantitative reliability analysis and reliability predictions were given more scrutiny because of their importance in understanding failure mechanism and quantifying the probability of failure, which are key elements in resolving technical issues, performing design trades, and implementing design improvements. Although PRA and reliability are both probabilistic in nature and, in some cases, use the same tools, they are two different activities. Specifically, reliability engineering is a broad design discipline that deals with loss of function and helps understand failure mechanism and improve component and system design. PRA is a system scenario based risk assessment process intended to assess the risk scenarios that could lead to a major/top undesirable system event, and to identify those scenarios that are high-risk drivers. PRA output is critical to support risk informed decisions concerning system design. This paper describes the PRA process and the reliability engineering discipline in detail. It discusses their differences and similarities and how they work together as complementary analyses to support the design and risk assessment processes. Lessons learned, applications, and case studies in both areas are also discussed in the paper to demonstrate and explain these differences and similarities.

Safie, Fayssal↗
DOE OSTI2024

Quarkonium transport in weakly and strongly coupled plasmas

We report on progress in the nonperturbative understanding of quarkonium dynamics inside a thermal plasma. The time evolution of small-size quarkonium is governed by two-point correlation functions of chromoelectric fields dressed with an adjoint Wilson line, known in this context as generalized gluon distributions (GGDs). The GGDs have been calculated in both weakly and strongly coupled plasmas by using perturbative and holographic methods. Strikingly, the results of our calculations for a strongly coupled plasma indicate that the quarkonium dissociation and recombination rates vanish in the transport descriptions that assume quarkonium undergoes Markovian dynamics. However, this does not imply that the dynamics is trivial. As a starting point to explore the phenomenological consequences of the result at strong coupling, we show a calculation of the Y(1 S ) formation probability in time-dependent perturbation theory. This is a first step towards the development of a transport formalism that includes non-Markovian effects, which, depending on how close the as of yet undetermined nonperturbative QCD result of the GGDs is to the strongly coupled N = 4 SYM result, could very well dominate over the Markovian ones in quark-gluon plasma produced at RHIC and the LHC.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
NASA NTRS2001

Structure and Variability of Water Vapor in the Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere

Upper-tropospheric humidity (UTH) has been synoptically mapped via an algorithm that rejects small-scale undersampled variance, which is intrinsic to asymptotic measurements of water vapor, cloud, and other convective properties. Mapped distributions of UTH have been used, jointly with high-resolution Global Cloud Imagery (GCI), to study how the upper troposphere is humidified. The time-mean distribution of UTH is spatially correlated to the time-mean distribution of cold cloud fraction (eta)(sub c) (T < than 230 K). Regions of large UTH coincide with regions of large eta(sub c), which mark deep convection. They also coincide with regions of reduced vertical stability, in which the vertical gradient of theta is weakened by convective mixing. Coldest cloud cover is attended convective overshoots above the local tropopause, which is simultaneously coldest and highest. Together, these features reflect the upper-troposphere being ventilated by convection, which mixes in moist air from lower levels. Histograms of UTH and eta(sub c) have been applied to construct the joint probability density function, which quantifies the relationship between these properties. The expected value of UTH in convective regions is strongly correlated to the expected value of eta(sub c). In ensembles of asymptotic samples, the correlation between epsilon[UTH] and epsilon[eta(sub c)] exceeds 0.80. As these expectations reflect the most likely values, the strong correlation between epsilon[UTH] and epsilon[eta(sub c)] indicates that the large-scale organization of UTH is strongly shaped by convective pumping of moisture from lower levels. The same relationship holds for unsteady fields - even though, instantaneously, those fields are comprised almost entirely of small-scale convective structure. The spatial autocorrelation of UTH, constructed at high resolution from overpass data along ascending and descending tracks of the orbit, is limited to only a couple of degrees in the horizontal. This mirrors the spatial autocorrelation of eta(sub c), which likewise operates coherently on short scales. The short correlation scale of UTH, which reflects the scale of individual convective systems, is comparable to the spacing of retrievals from MLS. These scales are undersampled in the asynoptic measurements. Despite their prevalence, the mapping algorithm described above successfully recovers synoptic behavior operating coherently on large scales. It reveals eastward migration of anomalous UTH from the Indian ocean to the central Pacific, in association with the modulation of convection by the Madden-Julian oscillation. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

Salby, Murry L.↗