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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 757 records · Page 42
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

An integrated approach to examine fuel-cladding chemical interaction in HT9/U-10Zr metallic fast reactor fuels: Coupling machine learning with electron microscopy and local mechanical properties analysis

The metallic U-Zr nuclear fuel alloy has garnered renewed interest as a promising candidate for next-generation sodium-cooled fast reactors. Recent studies and technology assessments have identified several areas requiring improvements, enhanced knowledge, and reliable data to strengthen the U-Zr fuel design basis for qualification and commercial applications. One of the most challenging phenomena impacting this fuel system’s performance is fuel-cladding chemical interaction (FCCI). This work aimed to harvest FCCI data by examining selected HT9/U-10Zr (wt. %) fuel samples of prototypic full-length fuel pins through an integrated approach. This approach integrated scanning electron microscopy (SEM) microstructure characterization with localized mechanical properties examination to deepen understanding of FCCI phenomenon in HT9/U-10Zr fuel system. Particularly, this study focused on MFF fuel pins irradiated at Fast Flux Test Facility (FFTF), which aimed to qualify metallic fuel as a driver fuel for FFTF and to assess its viability for larger-scale fast reactors. Electron microscopy provided high confidence in detecting and distinguishing the different FCCI layers, while small-scale mechanical testing (SSMT) probed the mechanical properties of these layers. SEM examination of a MFF-2 pin 192167, with a time averaged inner cladding temperature (TICT) slightly over 500°C, revealed minimal cladding-side FCCI (cladding wastage). In contrast, significantly thicker cladding wastage comprising two distinct sublayers was observed in samples from the thermally hot MFF-3 pin 193045 and MFF-5 pin 195011 where the TICT ranged from 610-635°C. SSMT indicated complete embrittlement in the sublayer adjacent to the fuel and a tendency toward embrittlement in the other sublayer. Additionally, a new machine learning method was developed, validated, and used to quantify cladding wastage thickness. The machine learning method reliably predicted the wastage thickness across various fuel pins and sample cross-sections. Furthermore, the available cladding wastage data from HT9/U-10Zr fuel system demonstrated a strong temperature dependency. However, the dataset remains small, and ongoing research activities are essential to further understand the FCCI phenomenon and develop a reliable FCCI model for enhanced fuel performance simulation under various conditions.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

CFD simulations of Molten Salt Fast Reactor core cavity flows

Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) has become increasingly important in the research and development of advanced nuclear reactors. Here, in the current study, extensive CFD simulations were conducted for the coolant flow in Molten Salt Fast Reactor (MSFR) core models using the state-of-the-art spectral element flow solver Nek5000 and multiscale coarse-mesh thermal-hydraulic software Pronghorn. The underlying motivation is to seek an in-depth understanding of how the internal velocity distribution can be influenced by the MSFR core cavity shape, the Reynolds number, turbulence modeling options and the inlet boundary conditions. The CFD techniques involved in this investigation range from coarse-mesh CFD, RANS modeling, to the high-fidelity LES calculations. Specifically, a series of RANS simulations were performed for the 2-D axisymmetric core model and 3-D wedge domains to study the flow distribution inside the MSFR core. It is observed that a proper representation of the MSFR inlet channel duct is important for the prediction of internal flow distribution. It is also showcased here how researchers can leverage the Nek5000 CFD results to calibrate more efficient coarse-mesh CFD tools, like Pronghorn, for the actual MSFR design needs. Moreover, this paper highlights a 3-D LES model for an entire MSFR core using the spectral element method and demonstrates the feasibility of this modeling approach. The readiness and potential limitations of the RANS approach are examined with respect to the high-fidelity LES simulations. The present investigation lays a solid foundation as we are leveraging the high-fidelity CFD capabilities to inform MSFR design efforts.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Failure investigation and mitigation after experimental research reactor fuel plate deformation in an irradiation device

Experimental research reactor fuel testing is conducted in the Belgian Reactor 2 (BR2) of the Belgian Nuclear Research Centre (SCK CEN) in dedicated irradiation vehicles or rigs. One such vehicle allows flat full-size fuel plates to be irradiated by inserting them into slotted baskets that captures a narrow portion of the longitudinal edges of the plates. The motion of the fuel plates within the baskets is possible within the narrow slots and thus, the plate is considered to be unattached. The design intentionally omits fixing mechanisms of the fuel plates to the baskets to facilitate the inspection and repositioning of the plates between the irradiation cycles and the accommodation of thermal expansion of the plates in the lateral direction. However, loosely inserted fuel plates have weak structural boundary conditions allowing for larger out-of-plane deflections caused by hydrodynamic loads exerted by the flowing coolant, as compared to those of fixed plates. Unexpected large deformations of plates occurred in several irradiation cycles that further resulted in a loss of cladding integrity. These deformations could not be attributed to a single source. This triggered a series of thermal hydraulic, structural, and fluid-structure interaction analyses aiming at understanding the observed phenomenon. The analyses revealed that, for a certain combination of unfavorable manufacturing and assembly tolerances, fuel plate edges could escape out of the slots in the irradiation basket due to the hydrodynamic load. Subsequently, the plate could become wedged inside the basket coolant channel opening. This resulted in reduced coolant flow and accelerated temperature increase and thermal expansion of the plate while under irradiation. This unfavorable feedback loop could then lead to excessive plate surface temperatures, deformed plates and cladding failure, as was observed in the experiments. These analyses not only provided a probable cause of the fuel plate failures, but also resulted in a new and improved design of the irradiation basket to avoid these issues in the future. In conclusion, a series of recent successful irradiations confirm that the sources of failures were identified correctly, and the implemented mitigations were adequate.

BR2↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian Optimized Deep Ensemble for Uncertainty Quantification of Deep Neural Networks: a System Safety Case Study on Sodium Fast Reactor Thermal Stratification Modeling

Deep neural networks (DNNs) are increasingly important to scientific computing and engineering system simulations. Accurate uncertainty quantification (UQ) for DNNs is critical in safety-sensitive engineering domains. Traditional Deep Ensemble (DE) methods, while easy to implement, frequently suffer from poorly calibrated uncertainty estimates and limited predictive accuracy due to reliance on fixed architectures with varied weight initializations. To address these issues, we introduce a workflow that combines Bayesian Optimization (BO) and DE. The workflow is modular, scalable, and integrates parallel BO initialized with Sobol sequences to individually optimize the hyperparameters of each ensemble member. This method enhances ensemble diversity, improves predictive accuracy, and provides reliable uncertainty estimates. We evaluate the proposed BODE approach in a sodium fast reactor thermal stratification modeling case study, where we used a densely connected convolutional neural network to predict turbulent viscosity during the reactor transient with consideration of data noise. We benchmark its performance against several optimization approaches, including baseline deep ensemble, evolutionary algorithm-optimized ensemble, ensemble formed via random search combined with greedy selection, and a BO ensemble using random initialization. Here, our results demonstrate superior performance of the developed BODE approach. In noise-free scenarios, BODE notably reduces incorrect aleatoric uncertainty and significantly enhances predictive accuracy. Under conditions of 5% and 10% Gaussian noise, BODE adaptively quantifies uncertainty proportional to data noise, achieving up to an 80% reduction in root mean square error compared to baseline methods and producing well-calibrated prediction intervals.

Bayesian optimization↗
DOE OSTI2024

Integration of pH Control into Chi.Bio Reactors and Demonstration with Small-Scale Enzymatic Poly(ethylene terephthalate) Hydrolysis

Small-scale bioreactors that are affordable and accessible would be of major benefit to the research community. In previous work, an open-source, automated bioreactor system was designed to operate up to the 30 mL scale with online optical monitoring, stirring, and temperature control, and this system, dubbed Chi.Bio, is now commercially available at a cost that is typically 1–2 orders of magnitude less than commercial bioreactors. In this work, we further expand the capabilities of the Chi.Bio system by enabling continuous pH monitoring and control through hardware and software modifications. For hardware modifications, we sourced low-cost, commercial pH circuits and made straightforward modifications to the Chi.Bio head plate to enable continuous pH monitoring. For software integration, we introduced closed-loop feedback control of the pH measured inside the Chi.Bio reactors and integrated a pH-control module into the existing Chi.Bio user interface. We demonstrated the utility of pH control through the small-scale depolymerization of the synthetic polyester, poly(ethylene terephthalate) (PET), using a benchmark cutinase enzyme, and compared this to 250 mL bioreactor hydrolysis reactions. The results in terms of PET conversion and rate, measured both by base addition and product release profiles, are statistically equivalent, with the Chi.Bio system allowing for a 20-fold reduction of purified enzyme required relative to the 250 mL bioreactor setup. Through inexpensive modifications, the ability to conduct pH control in Chi.Bio reactors widens the potential slate of biochemical reactions and biological cultivations for study in this system, and may also be adapted for use in other bioreactor platforms.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Quantifying Impacts of Biomass Pelletization on Fast Pyrolysis Using a Single-Particle Reactor, X-ray Computed Tomography, and Computational Modeling

The pore structure and density of lignocellulosic feedstocks dictate intraparticle transport phenomena and thereby play an important role in thermochemical conversion processes such as fast pyrolysis for biofuel and biochemical production. Variations in microstructure are inherent from different biomass species and can be introduced by preprocessing techniques such as cutting and pelletization. Morphological changes also occur during conversion and lead to vastly different pore structures and behavior during pyrolysis, which impact required conversion times and product distributions. The current work presents a comprehensive comparison of fast pyrolysis of neat and pelletized pine feedstocks, which includes single-particle experiments, modeling, and 3D imaging by X-ray computed tomography (XCT). The particle-scale model included anisotropic heat and mass transport in a shrinking particle with pyrolysis reactions based on the CRECK mechanism with boundary conditions informed by reactor-scale simulations of the single-particle reactor. The models were validated by measurements of the temperature and mass loss from single-particle pyrolysis experiments of neat and pelletized pine. Quantitative analysis of XCT geometries revealed that pyrolytic conversion yielded chars with increased porosity and permeability compared to the unpyrolyzed materials, along with decreased tortuosity and anisotropy. Pelletization of the pine feedstock resulted in a much denser, less permeable material, which converted slower and produced more residual char after pyrolysis compared to neat pine. The results from particle modeling revealed that accounting for the dynamic and anisotropic heat and mass transport caused by differences in pore structure is critical to achieving agreement with experimental results. Overall, this study highlights the dramatic differences in conversion behavior imparted by pelletization and the importance of capturing microstructural attributes in computational models to guide the design and optimization of pyrolysis processes for specific biomass feedstocks.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Surface-Initiated Atom Transfer Radical Polymerization Using Hydrogel Reactors

Atom transfer radical polymerization (ATRP) is a controlled radical polymerization method that enables the synthesis of tailored polymeric materials with low dispersity, highlighting its immense potential for green fabrication of advanced materials. However, its broader implementation is limited by challenges in product isolation, maintaining catalyst activity, and mitigating atmospheric sensitivity arising from oxygen-sensitive metal catalysts. Here, gelatin hydrogels (GHs) are introduced as a soft “reactor” matrix for interfacial ATRP, operating with minimal metal-catalyst loading while exhibiting possibly an organoreductive behavior. This strategy leverages activator regeneration via electron transfer through a ligand–metal charge-transfer (LMCT) mechanism to reduce oxidized metal catalysts within the GH network. Polymerization is evaluated by growing polymer brushes at an active interface formed between GHs swollen in monomer solution and an initiating surface, and sequential growth experiments confirmed that GH-mediated ATRP preserves living character. Under UV illumination, LMCT is activated, producing polymers both at the desired interface and within the GH bulk. UV–Vis spectroscopy revealed active reduction of Cu(II) to Cu(I) along with concentration-dependent complex formation, indicating dynamic coordination chemistry within the hydrogel. The redox-active arginine- and glutamic acid-rich gelatin backbone coordinates and reduces the metal center, enabling ATRP at ppm-level catalyst concentrations. While polymerization proceeds in GH-Cu(II) reactors, adding external mobile ligands to the GH results in longer polymer brushes. Here, the results reported here are exploratory. More experiments are needed to characterize polymer brush growth in GHs and compare it to conventional surface-initiated polymerization in solution.

Absorption↗
DOE OSTI2026

Development of Data-Driven Models for Performance Prediction and Chemical Dosing of a Full-Scale Controlled Phosphorus Precipitation Reactor

This study evaluated the use of data-driven models to improve control of a struvite precipitation reactor that removes phosphorus from wastewater while producing a fertilizer product. The researchers developed predictive models for influent orthophosphate concentration, effluent orthophosphate concentration, and phosphorus removal using operational data from a full-scale MagPrex™ reactor at a water resource recovery facility in Denver, Colorado. Model predictions were used to recommend magnesium chloride dosing adjustments needed to achieve a target effluent phosphorus concentration. Several machine learning approaches were tested, with ridge regression providing the best predictions for influent orthophosphate concentration and phosphorus removal, and XGBoost providing the best predictions for effluent orthophosphate concentration. Simulation results indicated that the decision-support approach could correctly identify dosing adjustments in most cases and reduce chemical use. Full-scale implementation achieved lower accuracy due to changing operating conditions and limited historical data in some operating ranges. Here, the results demonstrate the potential of data-driven tools to support phosphorus recovery process control while also identifying practical limitations that affect deployment in full-scale systems.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Constraining the impact of chlorine as a neutron absorber in next-gen fast reactor designs

The role of chlorine as a neutron poison and as a seed for producing radioactive waste in nuclear systems has driven a renewed interest to improve its nuclear data uncertainties. Additionally, basic and applied science programs that use CLYC (Cs 2 LiYCl 6 :Ce) detectors for neutron spectroscopy and monitoring are also very sensitive to any change in chlorine nuclear data for simulations of the detector response. In this work, sensitivities relevant for these different applications are addressed through simulations of the efficiency of CLYC detectors in a fast fission spectrum when applying new chlorine nuclear data as input. These simulations are validated by an experimental measurement using CLYC detectors coupled to an ionization chamber loaded with a 252 Cf spontaneous fission source. The results are then used to obtain the first reliable direct measurement of the 35 Cl(n,p 0 ) and summed Cl(n,p+n,α) fission spectrum average cross sections, found to be 54.7(32) and 105.0(98) mb, respectively. The results are within uncertainty of calculated fission spectrum averaged cross sections based on recently re-evaluated chlorine nuclear data, which confirm recent impact studies performed for the Molten Chloride Reactor Experiment. Meanwhile, there currently exists only one published criticality benchmark experiment that is sufficiently sensitive to chlorine nuclear data. Discrepancies are found with this set of criticality safety benchmarks, which are more sensitive to thermal and epithermal neutron energies than the energies, above 100 keV, tested in this current work. Hence, there is still a need to re-evaluate the chlorine nuclear data at lower energies to assess these discrepancies. Interpretation of the data from future “faster” criticality benchmarks, which are needed for next-gen fast reactor designs, benefit from the improved constraints on the chlorine nuclear data validated in this work.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

DBD plasma-thermal tandem reactors for converting biogas to carbon nanofibers

Sequestering greenhouse gases (CO 2 and CH 4 ) in biogas into carbon nanofibers (CNF) offers a promising route to mitigate carbon emissions and create value-added solid carbon materials. Coupling non-thermal plasma with a thermocatalytic reactor in a tandem setup is a promising approach for tandem reactions of dry reforming of methane to synthesis gas and its subsequent conversion to CNF. Various parameters were studied to determine their effects on CNF growth. Decreasing the total flow rate resulted in an increase in CNF growth. Increasing the plasma power input or the plasma zone length also enhanced the production of CNF. These results illustrate that plasma-thermal tandem reactors can be used to synthesize CNF from biogas with tunable parameters that may be further optimized in future studies.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Application of research reactor environments for validation of the IRDFF-II dosimetry cross section library

Activation data from seven different reactor-based reference neutron fields are examined to provide enhanced validation evidence for the newly released IRDFF-II library. A least-squares based spectrum adjustment methodology is used and rigorous statistical metrics demonstrate the consistency of the set of IRDFF-II dosimetry cross sections. The use of these reactor-based neutron fields provides validation evidence for nine more reactions than have been addressed in the 252 Cf(sf) and 235 U(th) benchmark validation testing. The use of covers to shift their energy response increases the power of the response validation but makes it challenging to properly capture response correlations.

Griffin, Patrick↗
DOE OSTI2025

Design of a High-Assay Low-Enriched Uranium Tri-Structural Isotropic Critical Experiment for Advanced Reactor Validation

High-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU) fuel is a key component of many small modular reactor designs. Critical experiments are an important way to understand the neutronic performance of systems by obtaining nuclear data validations through measurements. Data reduce uncertainty and risk by showing that systems respond as predicted to changes such as temperature, subsequently advancing the overall technology readiness level of the materials within. Numerous critical experiments have been performed at the National Criticality Experiments Research Center (NCERC) operated by Los Alamos National Laboratory at the Nevada National Security Site since it became operational in 2011. However, the first experiment with HALEU fuel did not occur until 2024. Through extensive engineering, the experiment described in this paper was successfully designed and executed for the Comet vertical lift assembly at NCERC to perform measurements with HALEU tri-structural isotropic fuel that will assist in validation of nuclear data and computational modeling of small modular reactors for years to come.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

A New 1D Model for Thermal Mixing and Stratification in Advanced Reactor Transients

Thermal mixing and stratification in large pools and enclosures play a critical role in the safety and performance of pool-type nuclear reactors, particularly during transient scenarios involving significant temperature differences between incoming and bulk coolant. Accurate modeling of these phenomena is essential for predicting system behavior and supporting passive safety features such as natural circulation. Here, this paper presents a new 1D model for thermal mixing and stratification, developed and implemented in the SAM code. The model represents a large pool as 1D coolant jet channels and zero-dimensional bulk pool volumes, enabling the simulation of a wide range of flow configurations, including hot and cold jet interactions, stratified layers, and the influence of complex geometries such as ceilings, free surfaces, and internal obstacles. Heat exchange between jet and pool regions is governed by closure relations calibrated against 3D computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations. The model improves upon earlier approaches by incorporating time-dependent jet characteristics and capturing the associated delay effects more accurately. Code-to-code comparisons and validation against experimental data from the Thermal Stratification Test Facility demonstrate the model’s accuracy and flexibility. This work offers two key contributions: (1) an efficient and robust method for simulating thermal mixing and stratification at the system level, eliminating the need for external coupling between system analysis codes and CFD, and (2) a significant enhancement of SAM’s capabilities to analyze thermal stratification phenomena in advanced reactor systems.

SAM↗
DOE OSTI2026

The ENDF/B Nuclear Data Library and Its Impact on Reactor Simulations

The ENDF/B library, which is developed, maintained, and distributed by the Cross Section Evaluation Working Group, is the main source of nuclear data for analyses and computational simulations in nuclear applications, like different nuclear reactors concepts, radiation shielding, medical applications, astrophysics, etc. The library is constantly being improved and updated, with each release bringing an optimal representation of nuclear interactions as they are understood in their time. The most recent release, ENDF/B-VIII.1, represents a significant improvement in terms of the performance and consistency of the measured differential data relative to previous versions, as it combines the most recent experimental differential data and advanced theoretical nuclear models. As one of the many highlights, ENDF/B-VIII.1 restores a high-burnup depletion performance, comparable to ENDF/B-VII.1, that had been degraded in ENDF/B-VIII.0, while further improving the performance in criticality benchmarks, such as those in the Mosteller’s suite. Additionally noteworthy is the improved performance of ENDF/B-VIII.1 in radiation shielding and thick-target leakage spectrum integral experiments, which are also important for fusion and reactor applications. In this work we present in a very summarized way the main updates implemented in the ENDF/B-VIII.1 release and its main impacts, and also begin to delineate the path forward as to what to expect in the future for the next ENDF/B release, which, based on the timeline of the past few releases, is estimated to happen around 5 years from now. We emphasize that the ENDF/B-VIII.1 release was the product of an enormous collaborative effort among many authors and that for a complete detailed picture, the reader is strongly encouraged to refer to the article accompanying the release, which is currently in the publication process, but available as preprint [G. P. A. Nobre et al. arXiv Preprint arXiv: 2511.03564 (2025)].

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Application of a Physics-Informed Convolutional Neural Network for Monitoring the Temperature Fields in High-Temperature Gas Reactors

Here, this work presents current advances in applying a physics-informed convolutional neural network (CNN) to evaluate temperature distributions in advanced reactors. Our goal is to demonstrate that the CNN can reconstruct temperature fields within the solid region of a prismatic fuel assembly in a high-temperature gas reactor (HTGR) with sensor data available in only a few cooling channels. Before that, we showcase the superior performance of the physics-informed CNN in comparison to a purely data-driven multilayer perceptron (MLP), considering a canonical heated channel setup. This analysis shows the advantages of our approach and justifies its choice. The datasets employed here are obtained upon numerical simulations performed with codes under the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation program. This work is important, as industry experience indicates that the assembly material in HTGR concepts is prone to large thermal-mechanical loads nearing operational limits. This makes it crucial to characterize peak temperatures and their distributions near hot spots. Modern thermocouples are unreliable in these types of harsh environments because of the high neutron fluxes and elevated temperatures involved. The CNN-based field reconstruction represents an attractive solution, enabling sensor arrays in less aggressive locations and augmenting indirect predictions for less accessible regions. The results show that the CNN reduces prediction errors by orders of magnitude in comparison to the MLP, considering the simple yet well-representative heated channel case. In the case of the HTGR fuel assembly, the CNN can successfully reconstruct temperature fields over various cooling regimes. Furthermore, we also explore the algorithm’s ability to detect abnormalities. Interestingly, the CNN proves it has the capacity to detect blockage in one of the noninstrumented cooling channels.

Machine learning↗
DOE OSTI2025

Identification of Important Phenomena for Light Water Reactors During Heat Transport System Failure Events in Integrated Energy Systems

This work adapts historical literature and existing phenomena identification and ranking tables (PIRT) to be applicable to a novel nuclear power plant (NPP) and chemical or thermal process integrated energy system (IES), particularly focusing on the process heat and heat transport system failure events that are not a concern during normal NPP operation but become vital when an IES is considered. Nuclear energy has been suggested to go beyond base-load applications and be used for hydrogen co-generation systems, amongst other IESs. Prior to the implementation of nuclear IESs, sufficient analysis must be performed on accident events to ensure public safety. The events considered were deemed important because of their potential to damage systems, structures, and components (SSCs). Process thermal events of concern include loss of heat load and temperature transient events. Loss of heat load events were characterized as having high importance and being well understood. Temperature transient events may be further categorized by the cyclic loading and harmonics phenomena. Cyclic loading issues were classified as medium to high importance with knowledge gaps existing regarding fatigue and low power operation, while harmonics phenomena were classified as low importance and are well understood. Heat transport system failure events of concern include intermediate and process heat exchanger failures, mass addition to reactor coolant, ingress of material from thermal manifold/energy storage, and loss of intermediate fluid. Furthermore, these events tended to be of high or medium importance, with some knowledge gaps needing to be filled for individual reactor systems due to unique designs.

Integrated Energy System (IES)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Comparative Evaluation of Spectral Methods for Robust Reactor Noise Estimation

Reactor noise analysis provides a noninvasive means to determine neutron kinetic parameters from stochastic fluctuations in detector signals. However, standard cross-power spectral density (CPSD) analyses can be sensitive to numerical processing choices, which may introduce processing-dependent systematic shifts in estimates of the prompt neutron decay constant (α) and limit reproducibility. This study uses a hybrid multitaper–Welch spectral estimator to analyze subcritical noise measurements from a fast-spectrum critical assembly. The decay constant α was extracted using three frequency-domain methods: the CPSD, the magnitude-squared coherence (MSC), and the generalized magnitude-squared coherence (GMSC). These coherence-based estimators normalize detector auto-spectral structure and are expected to reduce the sensitivity of fitted α values to processing parameters. A Sobol global sensitivity analysis identified which numerical inputs most strongly influence the fitted values of α. All estimators produced a linear dependence of α on inverse count rate, with delayed-critical extrapolations near 1.7 × 10 4 s −1 , in agreement within 8% of MCNP6.3 KOPTS benchmark calculations. Sensitivity results show that while the CPSD depends on both time-bin width and taper selection, the MSC and GMSC are dominated by time-bin width alone, indicating reduced parameter coupling and greater robustness to processing variability. These findings demonstrate the feasibility and practical value of coherence-based spectral estimators for extracting α from reactor noise and support their broader application to multi-detector and irregular datasets in subcritical system characterization.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2025

Estimating Potential Tritium and Plutonium Production in North Korea’s Experimental Light Water Reactor

Our work explores North Korea's 100 MW-th Experimental Light Water Reactor (ELWR) and its potential contributions to the country's nuclear weapons program. Built at the Yongbyon Nuclear Research Center, the ELWR began operations in October 2023 and represents North Korea's first attempts at a light-water reactor using domestically-enriched, ceramic fuel. Our study examines possible configurations for energy, tritium, and tritium-plutonium co-production. Assuming a single-batch core, the ELWR can be used to annually produce 48-82 grams of tritium, which can supply 2-4 new boosted warheads each year, up to a maximum arsenal of 88-150 warheads total. Concurrent production of tritium and weapon-grade plutonium is also possible but requires reprocessing of spent ceramic fuel. Furthermore, these findings underscore how North Korea's nuclear capabilities may be advanced through the ELWR's dual-use potential.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗