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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 757 records · Page 42
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Subsurface Characterization and Machine Learning Predictions at Brady Hot Springs Results

Geothermal power plants typically show decreasing heat and power production rates over time. Mitigation strategies include optimizing the management of existing wells - increasing or decreasing the fluid flow rates across the wells - and drilling new wells at appropriate locations. The latter is expensive, time-consuming, and subject to many engineering constraints, but the former is a viable mechanism for periodic adjustment of the available fluid allocations. Data and supporting literature from a study describing a new approach combining reservoir modeling and machine learning to produce models that enable strategies for the mitigation of decreased heat and power production rates over time for geothermal power plants. The computational approach used enables translation of sets of potential flow rates for the active wells into reservoir-wide estimates of produced energy and discovery of optimal flow allocations among the studied sets. In our computational experiments, we utilize collections of simulations for a specific reservoir (which capture subsurface characterization and realize history matching) along with machine learning models that predict temperature and pressure timeseries for production wells. We evaluate this approach using an "open-source" reservoir we have constructed that captures many of the characteristics of Brady Hot Springs, a commercially operational geothermal field in Nevada, USA. Selected results from a reservoir model of Brady Hot Springs itself are presented to show successful application to an existing system. In both cases, energy predictions prove to be highly accurate: all observed prediction errors do not exceed 3.68% for temperatures and 4.75% for pressures. In a cumulative energy estimation, we observe prediction errors that are less than 4.04%. A typical reservoir simulation for Brady Hot Springs completes in approximately 4 hours, whereas our machine learning models yield accurate 20-year predictions for temperatures, pressures, and produced energy in 0.9 seconds. This paper aims to demonstrate how the models and techniques from our study can be applied to achieve rapid exploration of controlled parameters and optimization of other geothermal reservoirs. Includes a synthetic, yet realistic, model of a geothermal reservoir, referred to as open-source reservoir (OSR). OSR is a 10-well (4 injection wells and 6 production wells) system that resembles Brady Hot Springs (a commercially operational geothermal field in Nevada, USA) at a high level but has a number of sufficiently modified characteristics (which renders any possible similarity between specific characteristics like temperatures and pressures as purely random). We study OSR through CMG simulations with a wide range of flow allocation scenarios. Includes a dataset with 101 simulated scenarios that cover the period of time between 2020 and 2040 and a link to the published paper about this project, where we focus on the Machine Learning work for predicting OSR's energy production based on the simulation data, as well as a link to the GitHub repository where we have published the code we have developed (please refer to the repository's readme file to see instructions on how to run the code). Additional links are included to associated work led by the USGS to identify geologic factors associated with well productivity in geothermal fields. Below are the high-level steps for applying the same modeling + ML process to other geothermal reservoirs: 1. Develop a geologic model of the geothermal field. The location of faults, upflow zones, aquifers, etc. need to be accounted for as accurately as possible 2. The geologic model needs to be converted to a reservoir model that can be used in a reservoir simulator, such as, for instance, CMG STARS, TETRAD, or FALCON 3. Using native state modeling, the initial temperature and pressure distributions are evaluated, and they become the initial conditions for dynamic reservoir simulations 4....

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

SCF Framework, HF Stability, and RPA Correlation for Jordan–Wigner-Transformed Spin Hamiltonians on Arbitrary Coupling Topologies

Mapping spins to fermions via the Jordan–Wigner (JW) transformation can render mean-field (Hartree–Fock, HF) descriptions effective for strongly correlated spin systems. As established in recent work, the application of such approaches is not limited by the nonlocal structure of JW strings or by site ordering because string operators can be absorbed into Thouless rotations of a Slater determinant, and the variational optimization of a unitary Lie-algebraic similarity transformation removes any ordering dependence. Leveraging these ideas, we develop a self-consistent field (SCF) scheme that expresses the mean-field energy as a functional of the single-particle density matrix, providing an alternative to gradient-based optimization of Thouless parameters. We derive the analytical orbital Hessian to diagnose HF stability and compute the ground-state correlation energy through the random-phase approximation (RPA). Benchmark results for the XXZ and J 1 –J 2 model on one- and two-dimensional lattices demonstrate that RPA significantly improves mean-field accuracy.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Noise dynamics of quantum annealers: estimating the effective noise using idle qubits

Quantum annealing is a type of analog computation that aims to use quantum mechanical fluctuations in search of optimal solutions of QUBO (quadratic unconstrained binary optimization) or, equivalently, Ising problems. Since NP-hard problems can in general be mapped to Ising and QUBO formulations, the quantum annealing paradigm has the potential to help solve various NP-hard problems. Current quantum annealers, such as those manufactured by D-Wave Systems, Inc. have various practical limitations including the size (number of qubits) of the problem that can be solved, the qubit connectivity, and error due to the environment or system calibration, which can reduce the quality of the solutions. Typically, for an arbitrary problem instance, the corresponding QUBO (or Ising) structure will not natively embed onto the available qubit architecture on the quantum chip. Thus, in these cases, a minor embedding of the problem structure onto the device is necessary. However, minor embeddings on these devices do not always make use of the full sparse chip hardware graph, and a large portion of the available qubits stay unused during quantum annealing. In this work, we embed a disjoint random QUBO on the unused parts of the chip alongside the QUBO to be solved, which acts as an indicator of the solution quality of the device over time. Using experiments on three different D-Wave quantum annealers, we demonstrate that (i) long term trends in solution quality exist on the D-Wave device, and (ii) the unused qubits can be used to measure the current level of noise of the quantum system.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2023

Plasmons in Z 2 topological insulators

Here, we study plasmonic excitations in the Kane-Mele model, a two-dimensional Z 2 topological insulator on the honeycomb lattice, using the random phase approximation (RPA). In the topologically nontrivial phase, the model has conducting edge states that traverse the bulk energy gap and display spin-momentum locking. Such a state of matter is called the quantum spin hall (QSH) phase, which is robust against time-reversal (TR) invariant perturbations. We find that in the QSH phase, gapless spin-polarized plasmons can be excited on the edges of the system. The propagation of these plasmons is chiral for each individual spin component and shows spin-momentum locking for both spin components on the same edge. Moreover, we study the effect of external magnetic fields on the gapless edge plasmons. Specifically, out-of-plane magnetic fields delocalize edge plasmons propagating in one direction without affecting the other one, while an in-plane magnetic field can be applied to selectively excite a specific spin-plasmon branch with proper doping or gating to the system. Our findings may have potential applications in novel plasmonic and spintronic devices. We also investigate plasmons in the Kane-Mele model on a finite-sized diamond-shaped nanoflake and observe low-energy plasmons circulating the boundary of the material.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2021

Impact of confined geometries on hopping and trapping of motile bacteria in porous media

We use a random walk particle-tracking (RWPT) approach to elucidate the impact of porous media confinement and cell-cell interactions on bacterial transport. The model employs stochastic alternating motility states consisting of hopping movement and trapping reorientation. The stochastic motility patterns are defined based on direct visualization of individual trajectory data. We validate our model against experimental data, at single-cell resolution, of bacterial E. coli motion in three-dimensional confined porous media. Results show that the model is able to efficiently simulate the spreading dynamics of motile bacteria as it captures the impact of cell-cell interaction and pore confinement, which marks the transition to a late-time subdiffusive regime. Furthermore, the model is able to qualitatively reproduce the observed directional persistence. Lastly, our RWPT model constitutes a meshless simple method which is easy to implement and does not invoke ad hoc assumptions but represents the basis for a multiscale approach to the study of bacterial dispersal in porous systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Cross-correlation spectra in interacting quantum dot systems

Two-color spin-noise spectroscopy of interacting electron spins in singly charged semiconductor quantum dots provides information on the interquantum dot interactions. We investigate the spin cross-correlation function in a quantum dot ensemble employing a modified semiclassical approach. Spin-correlation functions are calculated using a Hamilton quaternion approach that maintains local quantum mechanical properties of the spins. This method takes into account the effects of the nuclear-electric quadrupolar interactions, the randomness of the coupling constants, and the variation of the electron g factor on the spin-noise power spectra. We demonstrate that the quantum dot ensemble can be mapped on an effective two-quantum dot problem and discuss how the characteristic length scale of the interdot interaction modifies the low-frequency cross-correlation spectrum. Here, we argue that details on the interaction strength distribution can be extracted from the cross-correlation spectrum when applying a longitudinal or a transversal external magnetic field.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2026

Semi-Analytical Hierarchical Bayesian Inference of Nonlinear Model Structure in Stochastic Dynamics: Applied to Compartmental Models of Infectious Diseases

A Bayesian computational framework for parsimonious inference in stochastic nonlinear dynamical systems is presented. This framework enables the concurrent estimation of system states, time-varying parameters, time-invariant parameters, and the optimal sparsity structure of the model parameters. Because differential equation-based models are often simplified mechanistic or phenomenological representations, robust inference from noisy measurement data requires explicit treatment of model error and uncertainty. Model error and time-varying parameters can be represented as random processes, enabling inference while making minimal assumptions about the underlying sources of discrepancy and variability. Adopting stochastic differential equation representations affords the model significant flexibility, but can also render it susceptible to overfitting during statistical inversion, where the inferred model may track noise rather than the underlying signal. To alleviate the effects of overfitting and to enable the discovery of the optimal sparse representation of the time-invariant parameters, a Bayesian sparse learning algorithm is embedded within the framework. This sparse learning framework adopts an approximate hierarchical Bayesian setting defined by a series of semi-analytical expressions. The model structure inference framework is validated using a stochastic compartmental model for tracking and forecasting active cases of an infectious disease. Compartmental models describe population-level infectious disease dynamics through interactions among population fractions grouped by disease state. Mathematically, such models consist of a system of coupled ordinary differential equations. This example adopts an expressive compartmental model that includes multiple possible interactions between disease states, motivated by early uncertainty surrounding COVID-19 reinfection dynamics and their implications for long-term epidemic forecasting. The sparse learning exercise permits the inference of a priori unknown epidemiological dynamics from simulated public health data, discovering the nested compartmental model that optimizes the trade-off between average data-fit and model complexity. It is shown that inducing sparsity among the model parameters eliminates redundant interactions between compartments, equivalently revealing the optimal coupling structure between differential equations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Physics-Informed Gaussian Process Regression for States Estimation and Forecasting in Power Grids

Real-time state estimation and forecasting are critical for the efficient operation of power grids. In this paper, a physics-informed Gaussian process regression (PhI-GPR) method is presented and used for forecasting and estimating the phase angle, angular speed, and wind mechanical power of a three-generator power grid system using sparse measurements. In standard data-driven Gaussian process regression (GPR), parameterized models for the prior statistics are fit by maximizing the marginal likelihood of observed data. In the PhI-GPR method, we propose to compute the prior statistics offline by solving stochastic differential equations (SDEs) governing the power grid dynamics. The short-term forecast of a power grid system dominated by wind generation is complicated by the stochastic nature of the wind and the resulting uncertainty in wind mechanical power. Here, we assume that the power grid dynamics are governed by swing equations, with the wind mechanical power fluctuating randomly in time. We solve these equations for the mean and covariances of the power grid states using the Monte Carlo simulation method. We demonstrate that the proposed PhI-GPR method can accurately forecast and estimate observed and unobserved states. For the considered problem, PhI-GPR has computational advantages over the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) method: In PhI-GPR, ensembles are computed offline and independently of the data acquisition process, whereas for EnFK, ensembles are computed online with data acquisition, rendering real-time forecast more challenging. We also demonstrate that the PhI-GPR forecast is more accurate than the EnKF forecast when the random mechanical wind power is non-Markovian. In contrast, the two methods produce similar forecasts for the Markovian mechanical wind power. For observed states, we show that PhI-GPR provides a forecast comparable to the standard data-driven GPR; both forecasts are significantly more accurate than the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) forecast. We also show that the ARIMA forecast is more sensitive to observation frequency and measurement errors than the PhI-GPR forecast.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Coupling Shared E-scooters and Public Transit: A Spatial and Temporal Analysis

The integration of shared e-scooters with public transit is a promising solution for urban mobility's first/last-mile challenge. This study explores spatiotemporal factors influencing this integration, using 35-day e-scooter trip data from Chicago. Employing a random-effect negative binomial approach, we modeled the frequency of e-scooter trips to access/egress to/from bus stops and train stations. Results indicate that weather conditions, design features like intersection density, and multimodal network density significantly influence usage. The transit system characteristics such as service frequency have a positive effect on the integration of e-scooters and trains while a similar effect for bus and e-scooter integration was not significant. Furthermore, safety-related variables such as accident and crime rates as well as demographic characteristics were also revealed to be significant factors in our study. These findings offer vital insights to urban planners and policymakers for infrastructure, safety enhancements, and interventions to encourage efficient e-scooter-public transit integration.

Chicago↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evidence of ordering in Cu-Ni alloys from experimental electronic entropy measurements

Phase diagrams exhibiting extended solid-solution and lenslike melting are often reproduced using ideal solutions, where ideal mixing considers a fully random configurational entropy of mixing. In the field of irreversible thermodynamics, experimental measurements of the composition variation of high-temperature electronic transport and molten-state properties suggest, however, a strong role for short-range atomic ordering in these systems. Herein, measurements of the thermopower and resistivity are reported for Cu-Ni solid solutions as a function of temperature and composition. The electronic transport properties were interpreted with an irreversible thermodynamic framework, revealing a large electronic contribution to the entropy of mixing. By considering a cluster model for the configurational entropy that uses the electronic contribution to inform the existence of ordered associates, we rationalize such a contribution of the electronic entropy with the ideal entropy of mixing commonly used to model such systems. In conclusion, these results suggest that the short-range order of the atoms plays a significant role in both solid and liquid states, even when there are no dominant intermetallic compounds in these alloys.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Genetic programming for understanding cognitive biases that generate polarization in social networks

Recent studies have applied agent-based models to infer human-interpretable explanations of individual-scale behaviors that generate macro-scale patterns in complex social systems. Genetic programming has proven to be an ideal explainable AI tool for this purpose, where primitives may be expressed in an interpretable fashion and assembled into agent rules. Evolutionary model discovery (EMD) is a tool that combines genetic programming and random forest feature importance analysis, to infer individual-scale, human-interpretable explanations from agent-based models. We deploy EMD to investigate the cognitive biases behind the emergence of ideological polarization within a population. An agent-based model is developed to simulate a social network, where agents are able to create or sever links with one another, and update an internal ideological stance based on their neighbors' stances. Agent rules govern these actions and constitute of cognitive biases. A set of 7 cognitive biases are included as genetic program primitives in the search for rules that generate hyper-polarization among the population of agents. We find that heterogeneity in cognitive biases is more likely to generate polarized social networks. Highly polarized social networks are likely to emerge when individuals with confirmation bias are exposed to those with either attentional bias, egocentric bias, or cognitive dissonance.

Gunaratne, Chathika↗
DOE OSTI2025

Spectral anomalies and broken symmetries in maximally chaotic quantum maps

Spectral statistics such as the level spacing statistics and spectral form factor (SFF) are widely expected to accurately identify “ergodicity,” including the presence of underlying macroscopic symmetries, in generic quantum systems ranging from quantized chaotic maps to interacting many-body systems. By studying various quantizations of maximally chaotic maps that break a discrete classical symmetry upon quantization, we demonstrate that this approach can be misleading and fail to detect macroscopic symmetries. Notably, the same classical map can exhibit signatures of different random matrix symmetry classes in short-range spectral statistics depending on the quantization. While the long-range spectral statistics encoded in the early time ramp of the SFF are more robust and correctly identify macroscopic symmetries in several common quantizations, we also demonstrate analytically and numerically that the presence of Berry-like phases in the quantization leads to spectral anomalies, which break this correspondence. Finally, we provide numerical evidence that long-range spectral rigidity remains directly correlated with ergodicity in the quantum dynamical sense of visiting a complete orthonormal basis.

Shou, Laura [Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (↗
DOE OSTI2020

Many-body quantum dynamics slows down at low density

We study quantum many-body systems with a global U(1) conservation law, focusing on a theory of N interacting fermions with charge conservation, or N interacting spins with one conserved component of total spin. We define an effective operator size at finite chemical potential through suitably regularized out-of-time-ordered correlation functions. The growth rate of this density-dependent operator size vanishes algebraically with charge density; hence we obtain new bounds on Lyapunov exponents and butterfly velocities in charged systems at a given density, which are parametrically stronger than any Lieb-Robinson bound. We argue that the density dependence of our bound on the Lyapunov exponent is saturated in the charged Sachdev-Ye-Kitaev model. We also study random automaton quantum circuits and Brownian Sachdev-Ye-Kitaev models, each of which exhibit a different density dependence for the Lyapunov exponent, and explain the discrepancy. We propose that our results are a cartoon for understanding Planckian-limited energy-conserving dynamics at finite temperature.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2025

Machine Learning Models for Mapping Groundwater Pollution Risk: Advancing Water Security and Sustainable Development Goals in Georgia, USA

The widespread use of pesticides, such as atrazine and malathion, in agricultural systems raises significant concerns regarding the contamination of groundwater, which serves as a critical resource for drinking water. This study applies machine learning techniques to predict the concentrations of atrazine and malathion in groundwater across Georgia, USA, using 2019 data. A Random Forest classifier was employed to integrate various environmental and demographic factors, including pesticide application rates, precipitation, lithology, and population density, to predict pesticide contamination in groundwater. The models demonstrated high training accuracies of 100% and moderate average testing accuracy of 55% for atrazine and 60% for malathion across five iterations. The low test accuracy of the model, ranging from 50% to 75%, is likely due to overfitting, which can be attributed to the small dataset size and the complex nature of pesticide-contamination patterns, making it challenging for the model to generalize to unseen data. Feature importance analysis revealed that average pesticide usage emerged as the most influential factor for atrazine, while aquifer lithology and precipitation played crucial roles in both models. These results provide valuable insights into the dynamics of pesticide contamination, highlighting areas at greater risk of contamination. The findings underscore the importance of integrating environmental, geological, and agricultural variables for more effective groundwater management and sustainable agricultural practices, contributing to the protection of water resources and public health.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

On the Estimation of Circumbinary Orbital Properties

We describe a fast, approximate method to characterize the orbits of satellites around a central binary in numerical simulations. A goal is to distinguish the free eccentricity—the random motion of a satellite relative to a dynamically cool orbit—from oscillatory modes driven by the central binary’s time-varying gravitational potential. We assess the performance of the method using the Kepler-16, Kepler-47, and Pluto–Charon systems. We then apply the method to a simulation of orbital damping in a circumbinary environment, resolving relative speeds between small bodies that are slow enough to promote mergers and growth. These results illustrate how dynamical cooling can set the stage for the formation of Tatooine-like planets around stellar binaries and the small moons around the Pluto–Charon binary planet.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Progress toward picosecond on-chip magnetic memory

Here, we offer a perspective on the prospects of ultrafast spintronics and opto-magnetism as a pathway to high-performance, energy-efficient, and non-volatile embedded memory in digital integrated circuit applications. Conventional spintronic devices, such as spin-transfer-torque magnetic-resistive random-access memory (STT-MRAM) and spin–orbit torque MRAM, are promising due to their non-volatility, energy-efficiency, and high endurance. STT-MRAMs are now entering into the commercial market; however, they are limited in write speed to the nanosecond timescale. Improvement in the write speed of spintronic devices can significantly increase their usefulness as viable alternatives to the existing CMOS-based devices. In this article, we discuss recent studies that advance the field of ultrafast spintronics and opto-magnetism. An optimized ferromagnet–ferrimagnet exchange-coupled magnetic stack, which can serve as the free layer of a magnetic tunnel junction (MTJ), can be optically switched in as fast as ~3 ps. Integration of ultrafast magnetic switching of a similar stack into an MTJ device has enabled electrical readout of the switched state using a relatively larger tunneling magnetoresistance ratio. Purely electronic ultrafast spin–orbit torque induced switching of a ferromagnet has been demonstrated using ~6 ps long charge current pulses. We conclude our Perspective by discussing some of the challenges that remain to be addressed to accelerate ultrafast spintronics technologies toward practical implementation in high-performance digital information processing systems.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES) for Hurricane Disturbance and Recovery

Tropical cyclones are an important cause of forest disturbance, and major storms caused severe structural damage and elevated tree mortality in coastal tropical forests. Model capabilities that can be used to understand post-hurricane forest recovery are still limited. We use a vegetation demography model, the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator, coupled with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model Land Model (ELM-FATES) to study the processes and the key factors regulating post-hurricane forest recovery. We implemented hurricane-induced forest damage, including defoliation, structural biomass reduction, and tree mortality, performed ensemble model simulations, and used random forest feature importance. For the simulation in the Luquillo Experimental Forest, Puerto Rico, we identified factors controlling the post-hurricane forest recovery, and quantified the sensitivity of key model parameters to the post-hurricane forest recovery. The results indicate a tendency for the Bisley forests to shift toward the light demanding plant functional type (PFT) when the pre-hurricane biomass between the light demanding and shade tolerant PFTs is nearly equal and forests experience hurricane disturbance with mortality >60% for both the two PFTs. Under more realistic conditions where the shade tolerant PFT is initially dominant, mortality >80% is required for a shift toward dominance of the light demanding PFT at Bisley. Hurricane mortality and background mortality are the two major factors regulating post-hurricane forest recovery in simulations. This research improves understanding of the ELM-FATES model behavior associated with hurricane disturbance and provides guidance for dynamic vegetation model development in representing hurricane induced forest damage with varied intensities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Organic molecules are deterministically assembled in variably inundated river sediments, but drivers remain unclear

Dissolved organic matter (DOM) is central to ecosystem function. A fundamental challenge is understanding the processes leading to variation in the chemistry of organic molecules that comprise DOM. Here we study these processes in variably inundated riverbed sediments, as an understudied, yet ubiquitous component of rivers. Using null-model approaches adopted from community ecology, we found that within-site variation in environmental conditions caused non-random (i.e., deterministic) shifts in DOM chemistry. Deterministic shifts were observed across diverse biomes, though the strength of determinism varied substantially. We found that the strength of determinism decreased with increasing sediment moisture, but in the form of a constraint space. Many systems fell below the upper constraint boundary, however. We propose a conceptual model based on our results and other publications in which DOM assemblages are hypothesized to be increasingly deterministic across the continuum from the river water column to saturated sediment pore spaces to unsaturated and dry soils/sediments.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗