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DOE OSTI2023

Investigating the Electronic Structure of Prospective Water-Splitting Oxide BaCe 0.25 Mn 0.75 O 3-δ before and after Thermal Reduction

BaCe 0.25 Mn 0.75 O 3-δ (BCM), a non-stoichiometric oxide with a layered perovskite-like crystal structure, has recently emerged as a prospective contender for application in renewable energy harvesting by solar thermochemical hydrogen generation. Using solar-thermal energy and a reducing environment, oxygen vacancies can be created in high-temperature BCM, and the reduced crystal so obtained can, in turn, produce H 2 by stripping oxygen from H 2 O. Therefore, a first step toward understanding the working mechanism and optimizing the performance of BCM is a thorough and comparative analysis of the electronic structure of the pristine and the reduced material. In this paper, we probe the electronic structure of BCM using the combined effort of first-principles calculations and experimental O K-edge X-ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS). The computed projected density of states (PDOS) and orbital plots are used to propose a simplified model for orbital mixing between the oxygen and metal atoms. With the help of state-of-the-art simulations, we are able to find the origins of the XAS peaks and categorize them on the basis of contribution from Ce and Mn. For the reduced crystal, the calculations show that the change in electron density resulting from the reduction is strongly localized around the oxygen vacancy. Experimental measurements reveal a marked lowering of the first O K-edge peak in the reduced crystal. Using theoretical analysis, this is shown to result from lifting of spin degeneracy in the absorption peaks as well as from a diminished O 2p contribution to the frontier unoccupied orbitals, in accordance with the tight binding scheme. The simulated results serve as a reference for the extent of spectral change as a function of the percentage of oxygen vacancies in the reduced crystal. Here, our study paves the way for the investigation of the working mechanism of BCM and for computational and experimental efforts aimed at design and discovery of efficient water-splitting oxides.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2026

Systematic Benchmarking of Climate Models: Methodologies, Applications, and New Directions

As climate models become increasingly complex, there is a growing need to comprehensively and systematically assess model performance with respect to observations. Given the increasing number and diversity of climate model simulations in use, the community has moved beyond simple model intercomparison and toward developing methods capable of benchmarking a large number of simulations against a suite of climate metrics. Here, we present a detailed review of evaluation and benchmarking methods and approaches developed in the last decade, focusing primarily on scientific implications for Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) simulations and CMIP6 results that contributed to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6). Based on this review, we explain the resulting contemporary philosophy of model benchmarking, and provide clear distinctions and definitions of the terms model verification, process validation, evaluation, and benchmarking. While significant progress has been made in model development based on systematic evaluation and benchmarking efforts, some climate system biases still remain. The development of open‐source community software packages has played a fundamental role in identifying areas of significant model improvement and bias reduction. We review the key features of several software packages that have been commonly used over the past decade to evaluate and benchmark global and regional climate models. Additionally, we discuss best practices for the selection of evaluation and benchmarking metrics and for interpreting the obtained results, the importance of selecting suitable sources of reference data and accurate uncertainty quantification.

Environmental sciences↗

DOE OSTI2025

ADEPT: A Pedagogical Framework for Integrating Agentic AI with Deterministic Scientific Workflows

The integration of Large Language Models (LLMs) into scientific research promises to accelerate discovery, yet a significant gap remains between the dynamic reasoning of Artificial Intelligence (AI) agents and the static, deterministic nature of canonical scientific workflows. This paper introduces ADEPT (Agentic Discovery and Exploration Platform for Tools), a reference architecture and pedagogical framework explicitly designed to bridge this gap. ADEPT's primary mission is to provide a transparent, "glass-box" environment where researchers and engineers can learn to effectively wrap established scientific software (e.g., BLAST, Nextflow pipelines) and compose it into reliable, agent-driven workflows. We describe its modular, multi-server architecture, which leverages the Model Context Protocol (MCP) for tool serving, LangGraph for robust agentic orchestration, and a secure nsjail-based sandbox for safe code execution. By prioritizing architectural clarity, safety, and modularity, ADEPT serves as an extensible blueprint for building trustworthy AI-augmented systems and fosters the collaborative development necessary to responsibly employ agentic AI for science. We provide practical examples of how to adapt and extend this framework, highlighting its utility in workforce development and AI-readiness capabilities across research and development projects.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

End-Use Savings Shapes Measure Documentation: LED Lighting

Building on the successfully completed effort to calibrate and validate the U.S. Department of Energy's ResStock and ComStock models over the past three years, the objective of this work is to produce national data sets that empower analysts working for federal, state, utility, city, and manufacturer stakeholders to answer a broad range of analysis questions. The goal of this work is to develop energy efficiency, electrification, and demand flexibility end-use load shapes (electricity, gas, propane, or fuel oil) that cover a majority of the high-impact, market-ready (or nearly market-ready) measures. "Measures" refers to energy efficiency variables that can be applied to buildings during modeling. An end-use savings shape is the difference in energy consumption between a baseline building and a building with an energy efficiency, electrification, or demand flexibility measure applied. It results in a timeseries profile that is broken down by end use and fuel (electricity or on-site gas, propane, or fuel oil use) at each timestep. ComStock is a highly granular, bottom-up model that uses multiple data sources, statistical sampling methods, and advanced building energy simulations to estimate the annual subhourly energy consumption of the commercial building stock across the United States. The baseline model intends to represent the U.S. commercial building stock as it existed in 2018. The methodology and results of the baseline model are discussed in the final technical report of the End-Use Load Profiles project. This documentation focuses on a single end-use savings shape measure - LED lighting. The LED lighting measure replaces interior lights with LEDs where applicable. The measure resulted in 1.25 TBtu energy savings across the building stock, with the majority of savings occurring in retail and warehouse buildings.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2015

Underground Test Area Activity Quality Assurance Plan Nevada National Security Site, Nevada. Revision 2

This Quality Assurance Plan (QAP) provides the overall quality assurance (QA) requirements and general quality practices to be applied to the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Field Office (NNSA/NFO) Underground Test Area (UGTA) activities. The requirements in this QAP are consistent with DOE Order 414.1D, Change 1, Quality Assurance (DOE, 2013a); U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Guidance for Quality Assurance Project Plans for Modeling (EPA, 2002); and EPA Guidance on the Development, Evaluation, and Application of Environmental Models (EPA, 2009). If a participant’s requirement document differs from this QAP, the stricter requirement will take precedence. NNSA/NFO, or designee, must review this QAP every two years. Changes that do not affect the overall scope or requirements will not require an immediate QAP revision but will be incorporated into the next revision cycle after identification. Section 1.0 describes UGTA objectives, participant responsibilities, and administrative and management quality requirements (i.e., training, records, procurement). Section 1.0 also details data management and computer software requirements. Section 2.0 establishes the requirements to ensure newly collected data are valid, existing data uses are appropriate, and environmental-modeling methods are reliable. Section 3.0 provides feedback loops through assessments and reports to management. Section 4.0 provides the framework for corrective actions. Section 5.0 provides references for this document.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Demonstrating MeV-Scale Physics Capabilities of Large Neutrino LArTPCs with Ambient Blip Activity in MicroBooNE

Large neutrino liquid argon time projection chamber (LArTPC) experiments can broaden their physics reach by incorporating isolated MeV-scale features present in their data. We use data from MicroBooNE, an 85 tonne LArTPC exposed to Fermilab neutrino beams from 2015 until 2021, to demonstrate new calorimetric and particle discrimination capabilities for isolated ~O(1 MeV) energy depositions referred to as "blips". We observe concentrations of blips near fiberglass support struts along the TPC edge, with an energy spectrum indicative of specific gamma-ray decays. These and other blip sources are being used to validate calibrations in MicroBooNE's data by leveraging spectral features. This work further reports on the progress towards distinguishing between low-energy protons and electrons in large LArTPCs using cosmogenic data. The composition of proton-like blips selected using this new technique is being studied to evaluate the accuracy of cosmic ray flux models used in LArTPCs

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Validation of wind resource and energy production simulations for small wind turbines in the United States

Abstract. Due to financial and temporal limitations, the small wind community relies upon simplified wind speed models and energy production simulation tools to assess site suitability and produce energy generation expectations. While efficient and user-friendly, these models and tools are subject to errors that have been insufficiently quantified at small wind turbine heights. This study leverages observations from meteorological towers and sodars across the United States to validate wind speed estimates from the Wind Integration National Dataset (WIND) Toolkit, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis v5 (ERA5), and the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2), revealing average biases within ±0.5 m s−1 at small wind hub heights. Observations from small wind turbines across the United States provide references for validating energy production estimates from the System Advisor Model (SAM), Wind Report, MyWindTurbine.com, and Global Wind Atlas 3 (GWA3), which are seen to overestimate actual annual capacity factors by 2.5, 4.2, 11.5, and 7.3 percentage points, respectively. In addition to quantifying the error metrics, this paper identifies sources of model and tool discrepancies, noting that interannual fluctuation in the wind resource, wind speed class, and loss assumptions produces more variability in estimates than different horizontal and vertical interpolation techniques. The results of this study provide small wind installers and owners with information about these challenges to consider when making performance estimates and thus possible adjustments accordingly. Looking to the future, recognizing these error metrics and sources of discrepancies provides model and tool researchers and developers with opportunities for product improvement that could positively impact small wind customer confidence and the ability to finance small wind projects.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Demonstrating MeV-Scale Physics Capabilities of Large Neutrino LArTPCs with Ambient Blip Activity in MicroBooNE

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2024

End-Use Savings Shapes Measure Documentation: Boiler Replacement with Air-Source Heat Pump Boiler and Natural Gas Boiler Backup

Building on the successfully completed effort to calibrate and validate the U.S. Department of Energy's ResStock (™) and ComStock (™) models over the past three years, the objective of this work is to produce national data sets that empower analysts working for federal, state, utility, city, and manufacturer stakeholders to answer a broad range of analysis questions. The goal of this work is to develop energy efficiency, electrification, and demand flexibility end-use load shapes (electricity, gas, propane, or fuel oil) that cover a majority of the high-impact, market-ready (or nearly market-ready) measures. "Measures" refers to energy efficiency variables that can be applied to buildings during modeling. An end-use savings shape is the difference in energy consumption between a baseline building and a building with an energy efficiency, electrification, or demand flexibility measure applied. It results in a time-series profile that is broken down by end use and fuel (electricity or on-site gas, propane, or fuel oil use) at each timestep. ComStock is a highly granular, bottom-up model that uses multiple data sources, statistical sampling methods, and advanced building energy simulations to estimate the annual subhourly energy consumption of the commercial building stock across the United States. The baseline model intends to represent the U.S. commercial building stock as it existed in 2018. The methodology and results of the baseline model are discussed in the final technical report of the End-Use Load Profiles project. This documentation focuses on a single end-use savings shape measure - boiler replacement with air-source heat pump boiler with natural gas boiler backup. This measure replaces natural gas boilers for HVAC application by air-source heat pump boilers when applicable and use natural gas boiler backup when the heat pump boiler could not operate due to outdoor air conditions which are below its cutoff temperature. This measure helps to quantify the decarbonization as well as the energy savings potential from the replacement. The measure resulted higher savings in natural gas consumption compared to the increase in electricity consumption, with a ratio of 3. The total natural gas energy consumption was reduced by 41%, whereas the total electricity consumption was increased by 5.3%.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2026

Geology of the One Earth Energy Site

The One Earth Energy site is one of two sites in the Illinois Storage Corridor (ISC) project. The objectives of the ISC project is to accelerate commercial deployment of carbon capture utilization and storage at two individual sites and receive approvals for Underground Injection Control (UIC) Class VI permits for construction at each site. At the One Earth Energy site, an extensive data collection program was undertaken, which included the drilling of a test well (One Earth Energy #1 [OEE #1]), four 2D seismic lines, and a small 3D seismic survey. The OEE #1 well was drilled in 2022 and acquired extensive core, log, and testing data to characterize the subsurface geology of the site. Coring was focused on the storage interval, the Mt. Simon Sandstone, and the confining interval, the Eau Claire Formation. The core and log data were used to evaluate the sedimentology and sequence stratigraphy, as well as to develop the conceptual geologic model. This report includes the geological summaries of the Mt. Simon Sandstone and the Eau Claire Formation. The extensive analysis of the log data is included in the petrophysical section, showing ranges of porosity, estimated pore size, and the mineral content of selected zones in the well. The separate petrographic technical report entitled “Petrographic and Advanced Geologic Characterization Report on One Earth Energy #1 (API# 1211325373)”, report number DOE-UIUC-0031892-04, details thin section point-counting analysis that includes mineralogical and pore space analysis, including grain size analysis, annotated thin section photomicrographs, scanning electron microscopy (SEM) with energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDS), and statistics of grain size analysis on Mt. Simon thin sections from OEE #1. The final OEE #1 well data to be included in this geology report is the routine core analysis of both whole core plugs and rotary sidewall core plugs. In addition to the OEE #1 well, four 2D seismic lines and a small 3D survey were acquired as part of the overall subsurface geological characterization. This geology report references the seismic interpretation report, entitled “One Earth Energy Site Seismic Interpretation Task 5.0”, report number DOE-UIUC-0031892-07. This report details the stratigraphic and structural interpretation of the 2D and 3D seismic data acquired at the One Earth Energy site. The 2D seismic data was acquired in 2019 and 2021, and the 3D survey was acquired in 2022. The objectives of the seismic programs were to contribute to the subsurface characterization of the Mt. Simon-Eau Claire Storage Complex by evaluating the continuity of potential storage reservoirs and containment intervals across the project area, and to determine if any geologic features are present that would increase containment risk to the proposed carbon storage project.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2015

Influence of radiation dose and reconstruction algorithm in MDCT assessment of airway wall thickness: A phantom study

Purpose: Wall thickness (WT) is an airway feature of great interest for the assessment of morphological changes in the lung parenchyma. Multidetector computed tomography (MDCT) has recently been used to evaluate airway WT, but the potential risk of radiation-induced carcinogenesis—particularly in younger patients—might limit a wider use of this imaging method in clinical practice. The recent commercial implementation of the statistical model-based iterative reconstruction (MBIR) algorithm, instead of the conventional filtered back projection (FBP) algorithm, has enabled considerable radiation dose reduction in many other clinical applications of MDCT. The purpose of this work was to study the impact of radiation dose and MBIR in the MDCT assessment of airway WT. Methods: An airway phantom was scanned using a clinical MDCT system (Discovery CT750 HD, GE Healthcare) at 4 kV levels and 5 mAs levels. Both FBP and a commercial implementation of MBIR (Veo{sup TM}, GE Healthcare) were used to reconstruct CT images of the airways. For each kV–mAs combination and each reconstruction algorithm, the contrast-to-noise ratio (CNR) of the airways was measured, and the WT of each airway was measured and compared with the nominal value; the relative bias and the angular standard deviation in the measured WT were calculated. For each airway and reconstruction algorithm, the overall performance of WT quantification across all of the 20 kV–mAs combinations was quantified by the sum of squares (SSQs) of the difference between the measured and nominal WT values. Finally, the particular kV–mAs combination and reconstruction algorithm that minimized radiation dose while still achieving a reference WT quantification accuracy level was chosen as the optimal acquisition and reconstruction settings. Results: The wall thicknesses of seven airways of different sizes were analyzed in the study. Compared with FBP, MBIR improved the CNR of the airways, particularly at low radiation dose levels. For FBP, the relative bias and the angular standard deviation of the measured WT increased steeply with decreasing radiation dose. Except for the smallest airway, MBIR enabled significant reduction in both the relative bias and angular standard deviation of the WT, particularly at low radiation dose levels; the SSQ was reduced by 50%–96% by using MBIR. The optimal reconstruction algorithm was found to be MBIR for the seven airways being assessed, and the combined use of MBIR and optimal kV–mAs selection resulted in a radiation dose reduction of 37%–83% compared with a reference scan protocol with a dose level of 1 mGy. Conclusions: The quantification accuracy of airway WT is strongly influenced by radiation dose and reconstruction algorithm. The MBIR algorithm potentially allows the desired WT quantification accuracy to be achieved with reduced radiation dose, which may enable a wider clinical use of MDCT for the assessment of airway WT, particularly for younger patients who may be more sensitive to exposures with ionizing radiation.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Anomalous compressible mode generation by global frame projections of pure Alfven mode

Alfven wave is the single most important physical phenomenon of magneto-hydrodynamic turbulence and has far-reaching impact to almost all studies related to astrophysical magnetic field. Yet the restoration of the Alfven wave fluctuations from a given magnetic field, aka the local Alfven wave problem, is never properly addressed in literature albeit its importance. Previous works model the Alfven wave fluctuation as the perturbation along a straight-line, constant magnetic field. However, Lazarian & Pogosyan (2012) suggested that the decomposition of Alfven wave along a straight line, aka. the global frame decomposition, has a factor of discrepancy to the true local Alfven wave fluctuation. Here, in this paper, we provide a geometric interpretation on how the local Alfven wave is related to the global frame through the use of vector frame formulation. We prove both analytically and numerically that the local frame Alfven wave is an orthogonal transformation of that of the global frame and related by the local Alfvenic Mach number. In other words, when we observe Alfven wave in the global frame of reference, some of the Alfven wave will be mistaken as compressible waves. The importance of frame choices have a far-reaching impact to the analytical studies of MHD turbulence. Combining the frame formalism and the new techniques we can have accurate measurement to some of the fundamental turbulence properties like the inclination angle of mean magnetic field relative to the line of sight.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Multiscale Electricity Modeling for Evaluating Carbon Capture and Sequestration Technologies (Final Report)

Carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) technologies that can operate with a high degree of operating flexibility could provide necessary electric grid flexibility in a system with high shares of variable renewables. This project examines the deployment and dispatch potential of twelve unique flexible CCS (FLECCS) technologies that encompass post-combustion carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) capture designs, concepts using a storage media to enable energy arbitrage, and hybrid processes that integrate CCS with direct air capture (DAC) for flexibility with net zero or negative CO 2 emissions. FLECCS technology potential is explored with a multi-model, multi-scale framework including the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) electric sector capacity expansion model (CEM) and the PLEXOS production cost model (PCM). Innovative methods were developed to represent FLECCS technology operating modes, performance, and cost in the two models. ReEDS was then used to simulate nine scenarios for each FLECCS technology, three CO 2 emissions price futures reaching $\$$150, $\$$225, and $\$$300/tCO 2 in 2050; and three scenarios for FLECCS technology deployment favorability relative to competing technologies. For each CO 2 price and reference FLECCS favorability, the 2050 infrastructures from ReEDS model are downscaled and implemented in PLEXOS to examine hourly dispatch under detailed operational constraints that are not included in ReEDS. FLECCS technologies exhibited a wide range of deployment potential ranging from none to several hundred gigawatts of capacity, with outcomes highly sensitive to input cost and performance parameters that are inherently highly uncertain. When deployed, FLECCS tended to displace a combination of wind, solar, and natural gas-based technologies rather than supporting increased renewable deployment. As a result, CO 2 emissions reductions facilitated by FLECCS deployment tended to come with higher overall system costs and electricity prices. When economically competitive, FLECCS technologies can contribute significant flexible generation and firm capacity to the grid, but continued technology development and an expanded analytical scope are necessary to fully understand FLECCS deployment potential its impact on the electric power sector. Follow-on analysis incorporating captured CO 2 tax credit value from the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and other potential policy scenarios could be particularly valuable, as this policy can substantially change the relative competitiveness of FLECCS technologies.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

DOE OSTI2023

End-Use Savings Shapes Measure Documentation: Variable Refrigerant Flow with Heat Recovery and Dedicated Outdoor Air System

Building on the successfully completed effort to calibrate and validate the U.S. Department of Energy's ResStock™ and ComStock™ models over the past 3 years, the objective of this work is to produce national data sets that empower analysts working for federal, state, utility, city, and manufacturer stakeholders to answer a broad range of analysis questions. The goal of this work is to develop energy efficiency, electrification, and demand flexibility end-use load shapes (electricity, gas, propane, or fuel oil) that cover a majority of the high-impact, market-ready (or nearly market-ready) measures. "Measures" refers to energy efficiency variables that can be applied to buildings during modeling. An end-use savings shape is the difference in energy consumption between a baseline building and a building with an energy efficiency, electrification, or demand flexibility measure applied. It results in a time-series profile that is broken down by end use and fuel (electricity or on-site gas, propane, or fuel oil use) at each time step. ComStock is a highly granular, bottom-up model that uses multiple data sources, statistical sampling methods, and advanced building energy simulations to estimate the annual subhourly energy consumption of the commercial building stock across the United States. The baseline model intends to represent the U.S. commercial building stock as it existed in 2018. The methodology and results of the baseline model are discussed in the final technical report of the End-Use Load Profiles project. This documentation focuses on a single heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) end-use savings shape measure - a variable refrigerant flow with heat recovery (VRF HR) heating and cooling system coupled with a dedicated outdoor air system (DOAS) for ventilation. This measure replaces existing multi-zone variable air volume (VAV) systems or single-zone rooftop units (RTU) with a VRF HR system coupled with a DOAS that includes an energy/heat recovery ventilator (E/HRV). The measure covers 53% of exisiting building stock's floor area and is not applicable to HVAC system types using district heating or cooling or buildings/spaces that include high-ventilation spaces such as kitchens where the amount of exhaust air is large. A DOAS with E/HRV is used to provide required outdoor ventilation air to spaces since ventilation air is generally not supplied by a VRF HR system. An exhaust air energy recovery ventilator (ERV ) with sensible and latent heat exchange is added to humid climate zones while a heat recovery ventilator (HRV ) with sensible only exchange is added to drier climate zones. The ERV is modeled as a fixed membrane plate counterflow heat exchanger, while the HRV is modeled as a sensible-only fixed aluminum plate counterflow heat exchanger. Both systems include a bypass (for temperature control and economizer lockout) and minimum exhaust temperature control for frost prevention.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2024

End-Use Savings Shapes Measure Documentation: Economizers

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2024

End-Use Savings Shapes Measure Documentation: Boiler Replacement with Air-Source Heat Pump Boiler and Electric Boiler Backup

Building on the successfully completed effort to calibrate and validate the U.S. Department of Energy's ResStock TM and ComStock TM models over the past three years, the objective of this work is to produce national data sets that empower analysts working for federal, state, utility, city, and manufacturer stakeholders to answer a broad range of analysis questions. The goal of this work is to develop energy efficiency, electrification, and demand flexibility end-use load shapes (electricity, gas, propane, or fuel oil) that cover a majority of the high-impact, market-ready (or nearly market-ready) measures. "Measures" refers to energy efficiency variables that can be applied to buildings during modeling. An end-use savings shape is the difference in energy consumption between a baseline building and a building with an energy efficiency, electrification, or demand flexibility measure applied. It results in a time-series profile that is broken down by end use and fuel (electricity or on-site gas, propane, or fuel oil use) at each timestep. ComStock is a highly granular, bottom-up model that uses multiple data sources, statistical sampling methods, and advanced building energy simulations to estimate the annual sub hourly energy consumption of the commercial building stock across the United States. The baseline model intends to represent the U.S. commercial building stock as it existed in 2018. The methodology and results of the baseline model are discussed in the final technical report of the End-Use Load Profiles project. This documentation focuses on a single end-use savings shape measure—boiler replacement by air-source heat pump boiler. This measure replaces space heating natural gas boilers by air-source heat pump boilers when applicable and helps quantify the decarbonization as well as the energy savings potential from the replacement. The measure resulted higher savings in natural gas consumption compared to the increase in electricity consumption, with a ratio of 2.9. The total natural gas energy consumption was reduced by 20%, whereas the total electricity consumption was increased by 2.5%.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2023

Tutorial: Lessons Learned for Behavior Analysts from Data Scientists

Big data is a computing term used to refer to large and complex data sets, typically consisting of terabytes or more of diverse data that is produced rapidly. The analysis of such complex data sets requires advanced analysis techniques with the capacity to identify patterns and abstract meanings from the vast data. The field of data science combines computer science with mathematics/statistics and leverages artificial intelligence, in particular machine learning, to analyze big data. This field holds great promise for behavior analysis, where both clinical and research studies produce large volumes of diverse data at a rapid pace (i.e., big data). This article presents basic lessons for the behavior analytic researchers and clinicians regarding integration of data science into the field of behavior analysis. We provide guidance on how to collect, protect, and process the data, while highlighting the importance of collaborating with data scientists to select a proper machine learning model that aligns with the project goals and develop models with input from human experts. Here, we hope this serves as a guide to support the behavior analysts interested in the field of data science to advance their practice or research, and helps them avoid some common pitfalls.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2016

Accuracy of automated measurement and verification (M&V) techniques for energy savings in commercial buildings

Trustworthy savings calculations are critical to convincing investors in energy efficiency projects of the benefit and cost-effectiveness of such investments and their ability to replace or defer supply-side capital investments. However, today’s methods for measurement and verification (M&V) of energy savings constitute a significant portion of the total costs of efficiency projects. They also require time-consuming manual data acquisition and often do not deliver results until years after the program period has ended. The rising availability of “smart” meters, combined with new analytical approaches to quantifying savings, has opened the door to conducting M&V more quickly and at lower cost, with comparable or improved accuracy. These meter- and software-based approaches, increasingly referred to as “M&V 2.0”, are the subject of surging industry interest, particularly in the context of utility energy efficiency programs. Program administrators, evaluators, and regulators are asking how M&V 2.0 compares with more traditional methods, how proprietary software can be transparently performance tested, how these techniques can be integrated into the next generation of whole-building focused efficiency programs. This paper expands recent analyses of public-domain whole-building M&V methods, focusing on more novel M&V2.0 modeling approaches that are used in commercial technologies, as well as approaches that are documented in the literature, and/or developed by the academic building research community. We present a testing procedure and metrics to assess the performance of whole-building M&V methods. We then illustrate the test procedure by evaluating the accuracy of ten baseline energy use models, against measured data from a large dataset of 537 buildings. The results of this study show that the already available advanced interval data baseline models hold great promise for scaling the adoption of building measured savings calculations using Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) data. Median coefficient of variation of the root mean squared error (CV(RMSE)) was less than 25% for every model tested when twelve months of training data were used. With even six months of training data, median CV(RMSE) for daily energy total was under 25% for all models tested. Finally, these findings can be used to build confidence in model robustness, and the readiness of these approaches for industry uptake and adoption

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗