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At least 757 records · Page 42

Nonlinear Impedance Analysis of La 0.4 Sr 0.6 Co 0.2 Fe 0.8 O 3-δ Thin Film Oxygen Electrodes

Here, linear and nonlinear electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS, NLEIS) were used to study 20 nm thin film La 0.6 Sr 0.4 Co 0.2 Fe 0.8 O 3-δ (LSCF-6428) electrodes at 600°C in oxygen environments. LSCF films were epitaxially deposited on single crystal yttria-stabilized zirconia (YSZ) with a 5 nm gadolinium-doped ceria (GDC) protective interlayer. Impedance measurements reveal an oxygen storage capacity similar to independent thermogravimetry measurements on semi-porous pellets. However, the impedance data fail to obey a homogeneous semiconductor point-defect model. Two consistent scenarios were considered: a homogeneous film with non-ideal thermodynamics (constrained by thermogravimetry measurements), or an inhomogeneous film (constrained by a semiconductor point-defect model with a Sr maldistribution). The latter interpretation suggests that gradients in Sr composition would have to extend beyond the space-charge region of the gas-electrode interface. While there is growing evidence supporting an equilibrium Sr segregation at the LSCF surface monolayer, a long-range, non-equilibrium Sr stratification caused by electrode processing conditions offers a possible explanation for the large volume of highly reducible LSCF. Additionally, all thin films exhibited fluctuations in both linear and nonlinear impedance over the hundred-hour measurement period. This behavior is inconsistent with changes solely in the surface rate coefficient and possibly caused by variations in the surface thermodynamics over exposure time.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Budget Constrained Machine Learning for Early Prediction of Adverse Outcomes for COVID-19 Patients

Background: Machine learning (ML) based risk stratification models of Electronic Health records (EHR) data may help to optimize treatment of COVID-19 patients, but are often limited by their lack of clinical interpretability and cost of laboratory tests. We develop a ML based tool for predicting adverse outcomes based on EHR data to optimize clinical utility under a given cost structure. This cohort study was performed using deidentified EHR data from COVID-19 patients from ProMedica Healthcare in northwest Ohio and southeastern Michigan. Methods: We tested performance of various ML approaches for predicting either increasing ventilatory support or mortality and the set of model features under a budget constraint was optimized via exhaustive search across all combinations of features. Results: The optimal sets of features for predicting ventilation under any budget constraint included demographics and comorbidities (DCM), basic metabolic panel (BMP), D-dimer, lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), CRP, brain natriuretic peptide (BNP), and procalcitonin and for mortality included DCM, BMP, complete blood count, D-dimer, LDH, CRP, BNP, procalcitonin and ferritin. Conclusions: This study presents a quick, accurate and cost-effective method to evaluate risk of deterioration for patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection at the time of clinical evaluation.

Cadena Pico, JoseE.↗

SANDWake3D

SAND2026-23958O SANDWake3D models atmospheric surface layers and turbine wakes using a 3D parabolic RANS solver. This Python-based tool uses an efficient method to simulate wakes, capturing complex wake behaviors such as wind shear, veer, and atmospheric stratification, naturally. It has been calibrated and validated against higher-fidelity large eddy simulations (LES), providing reliable results for wind energy and atmospheric research applications. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

SciDAC↗

Observations of Aerosol, Cloud, Turbulence, and Radiation Properties at the Top of the Marine Boundary Layer over the Eastern North Atlantic Ocean: The ACORES Campaign

We report on the Azores Stratocumulus Measurements of Radiation, Turbulence and Aerosols (ACORES) campaign, which took place around Graciosa and Pico Islands/Azores in July 2017. The main objective was to investigate the vertical distribution of aerosol particles, stratocumulus microphysical and radiative properties, and turbulence parameters in the eastern North Atlantic. The vertical exchange of mass, momentum, and energy between the free troposphere (FT) and the cloudy marine boundary layer (MBL) was explored over a range of scales from submeters to kilometers. To cover these spatial scales with appropriate measurements, helicopter-borne observations with unprecedented high resolution were realized using the Airborne Cloud Turbulence Observation System (ACTOS) and Spectral Modular Airborne Radiation Measurement System–Helicopter-Borne Observations (SMART-HELIOS) instrumental payloads. Here, the helicopter-borne observations were combined with ground-based aerosol measurements collected at two continuously running field stations on Pico Mountain (2,225 m above sea level, in the FT), and at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) station on Graciosa (at sea level). First findings from the ACORES observations we are discussing in the paper are as follows: (i) we have observed a high variability of the turbulent cloud-top structure on horizontal scales below 100 m with local temperature gradients of up to 4 K over less than 1 m vertical distance, (ii) we have collected strictly collocated radiation measurements supporting the relevance of small-scale processes by revealing significant inhomogeneities in cloud-top brightness temperature to scales well below 100 m, and (iii) we have concluded that aerosol properties are completely different in the MBL and FT with often-complex stratification and frequently observed burst-like new particle formation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Pronounced Impact of Salinity on Rapidly Intensifying Tropical Cyclones

We show the importance of salinity for rapidly intensifying Atlantic tropical cyclones and demonstrate the potential for improved prediction of rapid intensification through the inclusion of salinity. Tropical Cyclone (TC) rapid intensification (RI) is difficult to predict and poses a formidable threat to coastal populations. A warm upper ocean is well-known to favor RI, but the role of ocean salinity is less clear. This study shows a strong inverse relationship between salinity and TC RI in the eastern Caribbean and western tropical Atlantic due to near-surface freshening from the Amazon-Orinoco River system. In this region, rapidly intensifying TCs induce a much stronger surface enthalpy flux compared to more weakly intensifying storms, in part due to a reduction in SST cooling caused by salinity stratification. This reduction has a noticeable positive impact on TCs undergoing RI, but the impact of salinity on more weakly intensifying storms is insignificant. These statistical results are confirmed through experiments with an ocean mixed layer model, which show that the salinity-induced reduction in SST cold wakes increases significantly as the storm’s intensification rate increases. Currently, operational statistical-dynamical RI models do not use salinity as a predictor. Through experiments with a statistical RI prediction scheme, it is found that the inclusion of surface salinity significantly improves the RI detection skill, offering promise for improved operational RI prediction. Satellite surface salinity may be valuable for this purpose, given its global coverage and availability in near real-time.

Balaguru, Karthik↗

Can a simple dynamical system describe the interplay between drag and buoyancy in terrain-induced canopy flows?

Under non-neutral stratification and in the presence of topography the dynamics of turbulent flow within a canopy is not yet completely understood. This has, among others, serious implications for the measurement of surface – atmosphere exchange by means of eddy-covariance: for example the measurement of carbon dioxide fluxes are strongly influenced if drainage flows occur during night, when the flow within the canopy decouples from the flow aloft. An improved physical understanding of the behavior of scalars under canopy turbulence in complex terrain is urgently needed. In the present work, we investigate the dynamics of turbulent flow within sloped canopies, focusing on the slope wind and potential temperature. We concentrate on the presence of oscillatory behavior in the flow variables in terms of switching of flow regimes by conducting linear stability analysis. We revisit and correct the simplified theory that exists in the literature, which is based on the interplay between the drag force and the buoyancy. We find that the simplified description of this dynamical system cannot exhibit the observed richness of the dynamics. To augment the simplified dynamical system’s analysis, we make use of large-eddy simulation of a three-dimensional hill covered by a homogeneous forest and analyze the phase synchronization behavior of the buoyancy and drag forces in the momentum budget to explore the turbulent dynamics in more detail.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Thermodynamic and Dynamic Mechanisms for Hydrological Cycle Intensification over the Full Probability Distribution of Precipitation Events

Abstract Precipitation changes in a warming climate have been examined with a focus on either mean precipitation or precipitation extremes, but changes in the full probability distribution of precipitation have not been well studied. This paper develops a methodology for the quantile-conditional column moisture budget of the atmosphere for the full probability distribution of precipitation. Analysis is performed on idealized aquaplanet model simulations under 3-K uniform SST warming across different horizontal resolutions. Because the covariance of specific humidity and horizontal mass convergence is much reduced when conditioned onto a given precipitation percentile range, their conditional averages yield a clear separation between the moisture (thermodynamic) and circulation (dynamic) effects of vertical moisture transport on precipitation. The thermodynamic response to idealized climate warming can be understood as a generalized “wet get wetter” mechanism, in which the heaviest precipitation of the probability distribution is enhanced most from increased gross moisture stratification, at a rate controlled by the change in lower-tropospheric moisture rather than column moisture. The dynamic effect, in contrast, can be interpreted by shifts in large-scale atmospheric circulations such as the Hadley cell circulation or midlatitude storm tracks. Furthermore, horizontal moisture advection, albeit of secondary role, is important for regional precipitation change. Although similar mechanisms are at play for changes in both mean precipitation and precipitation extremes, the thermodynamic contributions of moisture transport to increases in high percentiles of precipitation tend to be more widespread across a wide range of latitudes than increases in the mean, especially in the subtropics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Comparing Growth Rates of Simulated Moist and Dry Convective Thermals

The spreading rates of convective thermals are linked to their net entrainment, and previous literature has suggested differences in spreading rates between moist and dry thermals. Here, growth rates of idealized numerically simulated axisymmetric dry and moist convective thermals are directly compared. In an environment with dry-neutral stratification, the increase of thermal radius with height dR / dz is a larger by a factor of 1.7 for dry thermals relative to moist thermals. The fractional change in thermal volume ε is also greater for dry thermals within a distance of ~4 radii from the initial thermal height. Values of dR / dz are nearly constant with height for both moist and dry thermals consistent with classical theory based on dimensional analysis. The simulations are also consistent with theory relating impulse, circulation, and spreading rate for dry thermals proposed in previous papers and extended here to moist thermals, predicting they will spread less than dry thermals. Tests adding heating to dry thermals, either spread uniformly across the thermal volume or concentrated in the inner core, indicate that dR / dz and ε are smaller for moist thermals because latent heating is confined mostly to their cores. Additional axisymmetric moist simulations using modified lapse rates and large-eddy simulations support this analysis. Overall, these results indicate that slow spreading rates are a fundamental feature of moist thermals caused by latent heating that alters the spatial distribution of buoyancy within them relative to dry thermals.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evidence of Mixed Scaling for Mean Profile Similarity in the Stable Atmospheric Surface Layer

A new mixed scaling parameter Z = z/(Lh)1/2 is proposed for similarity in the stable atmospheric surface layer, where z is the height, L is the Obukhov length, and h is the boundary layer depth. In comparison with the parameter ζ = z/L from Monin–Obukhov similarity theory (MOST), the new parameter Z leads to improved mean profile similarity for wind speed and air temperature in large-eddy simulations. It also yields the same linear similarity relation for CASES-99 field measurements, including in the strongly stable (but still turbulent) regime where large deviations from MOST are observed. Results further suggest that similarity for turbulent energy dissipation rate depends on both Z and ζ. The proposed mixed scaling of Z and relevance of h can be explained by physical arguments related to the limit of z-less stratification that is reached asymptotically above the surface layer. The presented evidence and fitted similarity relations are promising, but the results and arguments are limited to a small sample of idealized stationary stable boundary layers. Here, corroboration is needed from independent datasets and analyses, including for complex and transient conditions not tested here.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Mechanisms of Low-Level Jet Formation in the U.S. Mid-Atlantic Offshore

Abstract Low-level jets (LLJs), in which the wind speed attains a local maximum at low altitudes, have been found to occur in the U.S. mid-Atlantic offshore, a region of active wind energy deployment as of 2023. In contrast to widely studied regions such as the U.S. southern Great Plains and the California coastline, the mechanisms that underlie LLJs in the U.S. mid-Atlantic are poorly understood. This work analyzes floating lidar data from buoys deployed in the New York Bight to understand the characteristics and causes of coastal LLJs in the region. Application of the Hilbert–Huang transform, a frequency analysis technique, to LLJ case studies reveals that mid-Atlantic jets frequently occur during times of adjustment in synoptic-scale motions, such as large-scale temperature and pressure gradients or frontal passages, and that they do not coincide with motions at the native inertial oscillation frequency. Subsequent analysis with theoretical models of inertial oscillation and thermal winds further reveals that these jets can form in the stationary geostrophic wind profile from horizontal temperature gradients alone—in contrast to canonical LLJs, which arise from low-level inertial motions. Here, inertial oscillation can further modulate the intensity and altitude of the wind speed maximum. Statistical evidence indicates that these oscillations arise from stable stratification and the associated frictional decoupling due to warmer air flowing over a cold sea surface during the springtime land–sea breeze. These results improve our conceptual understanding of mid-Atlantic jets and may be used to better predict low-level wind speed maxima. Significance Statement The purpose of this work is to identify and characterize the atmospheric mechanisms that result in an occasional low-level maximum in the wind speed off the U.S. mid-Atlantic coastline. Our findings show that these low-level jets form due to horizontal temperature gradients arising from fronts and synoptic systems, as well as from the land–sea breeze that forces warmer air over the cold ocean surface. This work aids predictability of such jets, improves our understanding of this coastal environment, and has implications for future deployment of offshore wind energy in this region.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Subpolar North Atlantic Mean State Affects the Response of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation to the North Atlantic Oscillation in CMIP6 Models

Abstract The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) plays an important role in climate, transporting heat and salt to the subpolar North Atlantic. The AMOC’s variability is sensitive to atmospheric forcing, especially the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Because AMOC observations are short, climate models are a valuable tool to study the AMOC’s variability. Yet, there are known issues with climate models, like uncertainties and systematic biases. To investigate this, preindustrial control experiments from models participating in the phase 6 of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) are evaluated. There is a large, but correlated, spread in the models’ subpolar gyre mean surface temperature and salinity. By splitting models into groups of either a warm–salty or cold–fresh subpolar gyre, it is shown that warm–salty models have a lower sea ice cover in the Labrador Sea and, hence, enable a larger heat loss during a positive NAO. Stratification in the Labrador Sea is also weaker in warm–salty models, such that the larger NAO-related heat loss can also affect greater depths. As a result, subsurface density anomalies are much stronger in the warm–salty models than in those that tend to be cold and fresh. As these anomalies propagate southward along the western boundary, they establish a zonal density gradient anomaly that promotes a stronger delayed AMOC response to the NAO in the warm–salty models. These findings demonstrate how model mean state errors are linked across variables and affect variability, emphasizing the need for improvement of the subpolar North Atlantic mean states in models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Curves, Coriolis, and Cross-Channel Circulation in the Hudson River Estuary

Abstract Despite its relatively small magnitude, cross-channel circulation in estuaries can influence the along-channel momentum balance, dispersion, and transport. We investigate spatial and temporal variation in cross-channel circulation at two contrasting sites in the Hudson River estuary. The two sites differ in the relative strength and direction of Coriolis and curvature forcing. We contrast the patterns and magnitudes of flow at the two sites during varying conditions in stratification driven by tidal amplitude and river discharge. We found well-defined flows during flood tides at both sites, characterized by mainly two-layer structures when the water column was more homogeneous and structures with three or more layers when the water column was more stratified. Ebb tides had generally weaker and less definite flows, except at one site where curvature and Coriolis reinforced each other during spring tide ebbs. Cross-channel currents had similar patterns, but were oppositely directed at the two sites, demonstrating the importance of curvature even in channels with relatively gradual curves. Coriolis and curvature dominated the measured terms in the cross-channel momentum balance. Their combination was generally consistent with driving the observed patterns and directions of flow, but local acceleration and cross-channel advection made some notable contributions. A large residual in the momentum balance indicates that some combination of vertical stress divergence, baroclinic pressure gradients, and along-channel and vertical advection must play an essential role, but data limitations prevented an accurate estimation of these terms. Cross-channel advection affected the along-channel momentum balance at times, with implications for the exchange flow’s strength. Significance Statement Currents that flow across the channel in an estuary move slower than those flowing along the channel, but they can transport materials and change water properties in important ways, affecting human uses of estuaries such as shipping, aquaculture, and recreation. We wanted to better understand cross-channel currents in the Hudson River estuary. We found that larger tides produced the strongest cross-channel currents with a two-layer pattern, compared to weaker currents with three layers during smaller tides. Higher or lower river flow also affected current strength. Comparing two locations, we saw cross-channel currents moving in opposite directions because of differences in the curvature of the river channel. Our results show how channel curvature and Earth’s rotation combine to produce cross-channel currents.

Conley, Margaret M.↗

Assimilation of a Coordinated Fleet of Uncrewed Aircraft System Observations in Complex Terrain: Observing System Experiments

Uncrewed aircraft system (UAS) observations from the Lower Atmospheric Profiling Studies at Elevation–A Remotely-Piloted Aircraft Team Experiment (LAPSE-RATE) field campaign were assimilated into a high-resolution configuration of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. The impact of assimilating targeted UAS observations in addition to surface observations was compared to that obtained when assimilating surface observations alone using observing system experiments (OSEs) for a terrain-driven flow case and a convection initiation (CI) case observed within Colorado’s San Luis Valley (SLV). The assimilation of UAS observations in addition to surface observations results in a clear increase in skill for both flow regimes over that obtained when assimilating surface observations alone. For the terrain-driven flow case, the UAS observations improved the representation of thermal stratification across the northern SLV, which produced stronger upvalley flow over the eastern half of the SLV that better matched the observations. For the CI case, the UAS observations improved the representation of the pre-convective environment by reducing dry biases across the SLV and over the surrounding terrain. This led to earlier CI and more organized convection over the foothills that spilled outflows into the SLV, ultimately helping to increase low-level convergence and CI there. In addition, the importance of UAS capturing an outflow that originated over the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and triggered CI is discussed. These outflows and subsequent CI were not well captured in the simulation that assimilated surface observations alone. We report that observations obtained with a fleet of UAS are shown to notably improve high-resolution analyses and short-term predictions of two very different mesogamma-scale weather events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Intensification of Hurricane Sally (2020) over the Mississippi River Plume

Abstract Tropical Cyclone (TC) Sally formed on 11 September 2020, traveled through the Gulf of Mexico (GMX), and intensified rapidly before making landfall on the Alabama coast as a devastating category-2 TC with extensive coastal and inland flooding. In this study, using a combination of observations and idealized numerical model experiments, we demonstrate that the Mississippi River plume played a key role in the intensification of Sally near the northern Gulf Coast. As the storm intensified and its translation slowed before landfall, sea surface cooling was reduced along its track, coincident with a pronounced increase in SSS. Further analysis reveals that TC Sally encountered a warm Loop Current eddy in the northern GMX close to the Mississippi River plume. Besides deepening the thermocline, the eddy advected low-salinity Mississippi River plume water into the storm’s path. This resulted in the development of strong upper-ocean salinity stratification, with a shallow layer of freshwater lying above a deep, warm “barrier layer.” Consequently, TC-induced mixing and the associated sea surface cooling were reduced, aiding Sally’s intensification. These results suggest that the Mississippi River plume and freshwater advection by the Loop Current eddies can play an important role in TC intensification near the U.S. Gulf Coast.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Smoothing Lexis diagrams using kernel functions: A contemporary approach

Lexis diagrams are rectangular arrays of event rates indexed by age and period. Analysis of Lexis diagrams is a cornerstone of cancer surveillance research. Typically, population-based descriptive studies analyze multiple Lexis diagrams defined by sex, tumor characteristics, race/ethnicity, geographic region, etc. Inevitably the amount of information per Lexis diminishes with increasing stratification. Several methods have been proposed to smooth observed Lexis diagrams up front to clarify salient patterns and improve summary estimates of averages, gradients, and trends. In this article, we develop a novel bivariate kernel-based smoother that incorporates two key innovations. First, for any given kernel, we calculate its singular values decomposition, and select an optimal truncation point—the number of leading singular vectors to retain—based on the bias-corrected Akaike information criterion. Second, we model-average over a panel of candidate kernels with diverse shapes and bandwidths. The truncated model averaging approach is fast, automatic, has excellent performance, and provides a variance-covariance matrix that takes model selection into account. We present an in-depth case study (invasive estrogen receptor-negative breast cancer incidence among non-Hispanic white women in the United States) and simulate operating characteristics for 20 representative cancers. The truncated model averaging approach consistently outperforms any fixed kernel. Our results support the routine use of the truncated model averaging approach in descriptive studies of cancer.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Laminar-to-turbulent flame transition and cycle-to-cycle variations in large eddy simulation of spark-ignition engines

This paper investigates the effect of laminar-to-turbulent flame transition modeling on the prediction of cycle-to-cycle variations (CCVs) in large eddy simulation (LES) of spark-ignition (SI) engines. A laminar-to-turbulent flame transition model that describes the non-equilibrium sub-filter flame speed evolution during an early stage of flame kernel growth is developed. In the present model, the flame transition is characterized by the flame kernel size at which the flame transition ends, defined here as the flame transition scale. The proposed model captures the effects that variations in a turbulent flow field have on the evolution of early-stage burning rates, through variations in the flame transition scale. The proposed flame transition model is combined with the front propagation formulation (FPF) method and a spark-ignition model to predict CCVs in a gasoline direct injection SI engine. It is found that multi-cycle LES with the proposed flame transition model reproduces experimentally-observed CCVs satisfactorily. When the transition model is not considered or when variations in the transition process are neglected, CCVs are significantly under-predicted for the case considered here. These results indicate the importance of modeling the laminar-to-turbulent flame transition and the effect of turbulence on the transition process, when predicting CCVs, under certain engine conditions. The LES results are also used to analyze sources for variations in the flame transition. It is found, for the present engine case, that the most important source is the cycle-to-cycle variation in the turbulence dissipation rate, which is used to measure the strength of turbulence in the proposed model, near a spark plug. The large-scale velocity field and the variations of the laminar flame speed due to the mixture composition and thermal stratification are also found to be important factors to contribute to the variations in the flame transition.

42 ENGINEERING↗

CFD modeling of pre-spark heat release in a boosted direct-injection spark-ignition engine

Accurate predictions of low-temperature heat release (LTHR) are critical for modeling auto-ignition processes in internal combustion engines. While LTHR is typically obscured by deflagration, extremely late ignition phasing can lead to LTHR prior to the spark, a behavior known as pre-spark heat release (PSHR). In this research, PSHR in a boosted direct-injection spark-ignition engine was studied using 3-D computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and detailed chemical kinetics. The turbulent combustion was modeled via a hybrid approach that incorporates the G-equation model for tracking the turbulent flame front, and the well-stirred reactor model with detailed chemistry for assessing the low-temperature reactions in unburnt gas. Simulations were conducted using Co-Optima alkylate and E30 fuels at operating conditions characterized by different PSHR intensities. The predicted in-cylinder pressure and heat release rate were found to agree well with experiments. It was found the estimate of previous-cycle trapped residuals is of utmost importance for capturing PSHR correctly. A simulation best practice was developed which keeps the detailed chemistry solver active throughout the entire simulation, allowing to track the evolution of intermediate species from one cycle to the next. Following the validation, the dynamics of PSHR were analyzed in detail employing the pressure-temperature (P-T) trajectory framework. It was shown that PSHR correlated with the first-stage ignition delay of the fuel, hence showing close relation to the in-cylinder P-T trajectory and the chemical kinetics. Besides, it was indicated that LTHR is a self-limiting process that has the effect of attenuating the thermal stratification in the combustion chamber. Furthermore, it was observed the occurrence of PSHR caused the P-T trajectory of end-gas to overlap with the negative temperature coefficient region of the fuel’s ignition-delay maps. This effect was more significant in the fuel-rich regions where engine knock tendency would be generally higher, with potential implications on knock control and mitigation.

42 ENGINEERING↗