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Using Markov Models of Fault Growth Physics and Environmental Stresses to Optimize Control Actions

A generalized Markov chain representation of fault dynamics is presented for the case that available modeling of fault growth physics and future environmental stresses can be represented by two independent stochastic process models. A contrived but representatively challenging example will be presented and analyzed, in which uncertainty in the modeling of fault growth physics is represented by a uniformly distributed dice throwing process, and a discrete random walk is used to represent uncertain modeling of future exogenous loading demands to be placed on the system. A finite horizon dynamic programming algorithm is used to solve for an optimal control policy over a finite time window for the case that stochastic models representing physics of failure and future environmental stresses are known, and the states of both stochastic processes are observable by implemented control routines. The fundamental limitations of optimization performed in the presence of uncertain modeling information are examined by comparing the outcomes obtained from simulations of an optimizing control policy with the outcomes that would be achievable if all modeling uncertainties were removed from the system.

Bole, Brian↗

Evaluation and optimization of lidar temperature analysis algorithms using simulated data

The middle atmosphere (20 to 90 km altitude) ha received increasing interest from the scientific community during the last decades, especially since such problems as polar ozone depletion and climatic change have become so important. Temperature profiles have been obtained in this region using a variety of satellite-, rocket-, and balloon-borne instruments as well as some ground-based systems. One of the more promising of these instruments, especially for long-term high resolution measurements, is the lidar. Measurements of laser radiation Rayleigh backscattered, or Raman scattered, by atmospheric air molecules can be used to determine the relative air density profile and subsequently the temperature profile if it is assumed that the atmosphere is in hydrostatic equilibrium and follows the ideal gas law. The high vertical and spatial resolution make the lidar a well adapted instrument for the study of many middle atmospheric processes and phenomena as well as for the evaluation and validation of temperature measurements from satellites, such as the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS). In the Network for Detection of Stratospheric Change (NDSC) lidar is the core instrument for measuring middle atmosphere temperature profiles. Using the best lidar analysis algorithm possible is therefore of crucial importance. In this work, the JPL and CNRS/SA lidar analysis software were evaluated. The results of this evaluation allowed the programs to be corrected and optimized and new production software versions were produced. First, a brief description of the lidar technique and the method used to simulate lidar raw-data profiles from a given temperature profile is presented. Evaluation and optimization of the JPL and CNRS/SA algorithms are then discussed.

Leblanc, Thierry↗

Earth System Model Parameter Adjustment Using a Green's Functions Approach

We demonstrate the practicality and effectiveness of using a Green's functions estimation approach for adjusting uncertain parameters in an Earth system model (ESM). This estimation approach has previously been applied to an intermediate-complexity climate model and to individual ESM components, e.g., ocean, sea ice, or carbon cycle components. Here, the Green's functions approach is applied to a state-of-the-art ESM that comprises a global atmosphere/land configuration of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) coupled to an ocean and sea ice configuration of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm). Horizontal grid spacing is approximately 110 km for GEOS and 37–110 km for MITgcm. In addition to the reference GEOS-MITgcm simulation, we carried out a series of model sensitivity experiments, in which 20 uncertain parameters are perturbed. These “control” parameters can be used to adjust sea ice, microphysics, turbulence, radiation, and surface schemes in the coupled simulation. We defined eight observational targets: sea ice fraction, net surface shortwave radiation, downward longwave radiation, near-surface temperature, sea surface temperature, sea surface salinity, and ocean temperature and salinity at 300 m. We applied the Green's functions approach to optimize the values of the 20 control parameters so as to minimize a weighted least-squares distance between the model and the eight observational targets. The new experiment with the optimized parameters resulted in a total cost reduction of 9 % relative to a simulation that had already been adjusted using other methods. The optimized experiment attained a balanced cost reduction over most of the observational targets. We also report on results from a set of sensitivity experiments that are not used in the final optimized simulation but helped explore options and guided the optimization process. These experiments include an assessment of sensitivity to the number of control parameters and to the selection of observational targets and weights in the cost function. Based on these sensitivity experiments, we selected a specific definition for the cost function. The sensitivity experiments also revealed a decreasing overall cost as the number of control variables was increased. In summary, we recommend using the Green's functions estimation approach as an additional fine-tuning step in the model development process. The method is not a replacement for modelers' experience in choosing and adjusting sensitive model parameters. Instead, it is an additional practical and effective tool for carrying out final adjustments of uncertain ESM parameters.

Green's Function↗

AI-enabled, implantable, multichannel wireless telemetry for photodynamic therapy

Photodynamic therapy (PDT) offers several advantages for treating cancers, but its efficacy is highly dependent on light delivery to activate a photosensitizer. Advances in wireless technologies enable remote delivery of light to tumors, but suffer from key limitations, including low levels of tissue penetration and photosensitizer activation. Here, we introduce DeepLabCut (DLC)-informed low-power wireless telemetry with an integrated thermal/light simulation platform that overcomes the above constraints. The simulator produces an optimized combination of wavelengths and light sources, and DLC-assisted wireless telemetry uses the parameters from the simulator to enable adequate illumination of tumors through high-throughput (<20 mice) and multi-wavelength operation. Together, they establish a range of guidelines for effective PDT regimen design. In vivo Hypericin and Foscan mediated PDT, using cancer xenograft models, demonstrates substantial suppression of tumor growth, warranting further investigation in research and/or clinical settings.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Advancing Understanding of Fission Gas Behavior in Nuclear Fuel through Leadership Class Computing

This report describes the outcome of the pilot SciDAC project jointly funded by the DOE Office of Nuclear Energy and the DOE Office of Science, Advanced Scientific Computing Research to advance understanding of fission gas behavior in nuclear fuel. The computational approach involved utilizing both a bottom up and top down multiscale materials modeling to evaluate the processes of xenon fission gas diffusion, xenon clustering and precipitation and the mechanisms of fission gas resolution by energetic fission fragments in uranium dioxide nuclear fuel. The computer science and applied mathematics research activities were focused on optimizing the uranium – oxygen – xenon interatomic potential implementation in the LAMMPS molecular dynamics code for large-scale simulations of fission gas resolution, in addition to improvements in visualization of accelerated molecular dynamics simulations and performance optimization of the Xolotl continuum cluster dynamics with a new grouping scheme to reduce the computational cost of modeling very large fission gas bubbles containing more than 10,000 xenon atoms. The most impactful result from this project stems from a systematic series of atomistic molecular dynamics to evaluate fission gas resolution from xenon bubbles that, combined with the fission product yields and consideration of electron-phonon coupling, informed a first principles model that predicts the magnitude of fission gas resolution in good agreement with empirical estimates.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Design and Analysis of a Wake Steering Controller with Wind Direction Variability

Wind farm control strategies are being developed to mitigate wake losses in wind farms, increasing energy production. Wake steering is a type of wind farm control in which a wind turbine's yaw position is misaligned from the wind direction, causing its wake to deflect away from downstream turbines. Current modeling tools used to optimize and estimate energy gains from wake steering are designed to represent wakes for fixed wind directions. However, wake steering controllers must operate in dynamic wind conditions and a turbine's yaw position cannot perfectly track changing wind directions. Research has been conducted on robust wake steering control optimized for variable wind directions. In this paper, the design and analysis of a wake steering controller with wind direction variability is presented for a two-turbine array using the FLOw Redirection and Induction in Steady State (FLORIS) control-oriented wake model. First, the authors propose a method for modeling the turbulent and low-frequency components of the wind direction, where the slowly varying wind direction serves as the relevant input to the wake model. Next, we explain a procedure for finding optimal yaw offsets for dynamic wind conditions considering both wind direction and yaw position uncertainty. We then performed simulations with the optimal yaw offsets applied using a realistic yaw offset controller in conjunction with a baseline yaw controller, showing good agreement with the predicted energy gain using the probabilistic model. Using the Gaussian wake model in FLORIS as an example, we compared the performance of yaw offset controllers optimized for static and dynamic wind conditions for different turbine spacings and turbulence intensity values. For a spacing of 5 rotor diameters and a turbulence intensity of 10%, robust yaw offsets optimized for variable wind directions yielded an energy gain improvement of 128%. In general, accounting for wind direction variability in the yaw offset optimization process was found to improve energy production more as the separation distance increased, whereas the relative improvement remained roughly the same for the range of turbulence intensity values considered.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Design and analysis of a wake steering controller with wind direction variability

Wind farm control strategies are being developed to mitigate wake losses in wind farms, increasing energy production. Wake steering is a type of wind farm control in which a wind turbine's yaw position is misaligned from the wind direction, causing its wake to deflect away from downstream turbines. Current modeling tools used to optimize and estimate energy gains from wake steering are designed to represent wakes for fixed wind directions. However, wake steering controllers must operate in dynamic wind conditions and a turbine's yaw position cannot perfectly track changing wind directions. Research has been conducted on robust wake steering control optimized for variable wind directions. In this paper, the design and analysis of a wake steering controller with wind direction variability is presented for a two-turbine array using the FLOw Redirection and Induction in Steady State (FLORIS) control-oriented wake model. First, the authors propose a method for modeling the turbulent and low-frequency components of the wind direction, where the slowly varying wind direction serves as the relevant input to the wake model. Next, we explain a procedure for finding optimal yaw offsets for dynamic wind conditions considering both wind direction and yaw position uncertainty. We then performed simulations with the optimal yaw offsets applied using a realistic yaw offset controller in conjunction with a baseline yaw controller, showing good agreement with the predicted energy gain using the probabilistic model. Using the Gaussian wake model in FLORIS as an example, we compared the performance of yaw offset controllers optimized for static and dynamic wind conditions for different turbine spacings and turbulence intensity values, assuming uniformly distributed wind directions. For a spacing of five rotor diameters and a turbulence intensity of 10 %, robust yaw offsets optimized for variable wind directions yielded an energy gain equivalent to 3.24 % of wake losses recovered, compared to 1.42 % of wake losses recovered with yaw offsets optimized for static wind directions. In general, accounting for wind direction variability in the yaw offset optimization process was found to improve energy production more as the separation distance increased, whereas the relative improvement remained roughly the same for the range of turbulence intensity values considered.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

A scalable matrix-free spectral element approach for unsteady PDE constrained optimization using PETSc/TAO

In this work, we provide a new approach for the efficient matrix-free application of the transpose of the Jacobian for the spectral element method for the adjoint-based solution of partial differential equation (PDE) constrained optimization. This results in optimizations of nonlinear PDEs using explicit integrators where the integration of the adjoint problem is not more expensive than the forward simulation. Solving PDE constrained optimization problems entails combining expertise from multiple areas, including simulation, computation of derivatives, and optimization. The Portable, Extensible Toolkit for Scientific computation (PETSc) together with its companion package, the Toolkit for Advanced Optimization (TAO), is an integrated numerical software library that contains an algorithmic/software stack for solving linear systems, nonlinear systems, ordinary differential equations, differential algebraic equations, and large-scale optimization problems and, as such, is an ideal tool for performing PDE-constrained optimization. This paper describes an efficient approach in which the software stack provided by PETSc/TAO can be used for large-scale nonlinear time-dependent problems. Time integration can involve a range of high-order methods, both implicit and explicit. The PDE-constrained optimization algorithm used is gradient-based and seamlessly integrated with the simulation of the physical problem.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

LDRD 226360 Final Project Report: Simulated X-ray Diffraction and Machine Learning for Optimizing Dynamic Experiment Analysis

This report is the final documentation for the one-year LDRD project 226360: Simulated X-ray Diffraction and Machine Learning for Optimizing Dynamic Experiment Analysis. As Sandia has successfully developed in-house X-ray diffraction tools for study of atomic structure in experiments, it has become increasingly important to develop computational analysis methods to support these experiments. When dynamically compressed lattices and orientations are not known a priori, the identification requires a cumbersome and sometimes intractable search of possible final states. These final states can include phase transition, deformation and mixed/evolving states. Our work consists of three parts: (1) development of an XRD simulation tool and use of traditional data science methods to match XRD patterns to experiments; (2) development of ML-based models capable of decomposing and identifying the lattice and orientation components of multicomponent experimental diffraction patterns; and (3) conducting experiments which showcase these new analysis tools in the study of phase transition mechanisms. Our target material has been cadmium sulfide, which exhibits complex orientation-dependent phase transformation mechanisms. In our current one-year LDRD, we have begun the analysis of high-quality c-axis CdS diffraction data from DCS and Thor experiments, which had until recently eluded orientation identification.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Advanced assessment of beam-induced background at a muon collider

Renewed international interest in muon colliders motivates the continued investigation of the impacts of beam-induced background on detector performance. This continues the effort initiated by the Muon Accelerator Program and carried out until 2017. The beam-induced background from muon decays directly impacts detector performance and must be mitigated by optimizing the overall machine design, with particular attention paid to the machine detector interface region. In order to produce beam-induced background events and to study their characteristics in coordination with the collider optimization, a flexible simulation approach is needed. To achieve this goal we have chosen to utilize the combination of LineBuilder and Monte Carlo FLUKA codes. We report the results of beam-induced background studies with these tools obtained for a 1.5 TeV center of mass energy collider configuration. Good agreement with previous simulations using the MARS15 code demonstrates that our choice of tools meet the accuracy and performance requirements to perform future optimization studies on muon collider designs.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Automation and optimization of stopping and range of ions in matter simulation runtime

Prior to every ion implantation experiment a simulation of the ion range and other relevant parameters is performed using Monte-Carlo based codes. Although increasing computing power has improved the speed of these calculations, the demands on Monte-Carlo codes are also increasing, requiring evaluation of the optimal number of simulations while ensuring accuracy within threshold bounds. We evaluate the “Stopping and Range of Ions in Matter” (SRIM) code due to its widespread usage. We show how dividing simulations into multiple parallel simulations with different random seeds can lead to calculation speedup and find lower bounds for the required number of ion traces simulated based on an exemplar system of a Ga focused ion beam and a high energy C beam as used in high linear energy transfer testing. Here our results indicate simulations can yield results within the underlying data accuracy of SRIM at 10X and 100X shorter simulation time than the SRIM default values.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

High Fidelity Thermal Simulators for Non-Nuclear Testing: Analysis and Initial Results

Non-nuclear testing can be a valuable tool in the development of a space nuclear power system, providing system characterization data and allowing one to work through various fabrication, assembly and integration issues without the cost and time associated with a full ground nuclear test. In a non-nuclear test bed, electric heaters are used to simulate the heat from nuclear fuel. Testing with non-optimized heater elements allows one to assess thermal, heat transfer, and stress related attributes of a given system, but fails to demonstrate the dynamic response that would be present in an integrated, fueled reactor system. High fidelity thermal simulators that match both the static and the dynamic fuel pin performance that would be observed in an operating, fueled nuclear reactor can vastly increase the value of non-nuclear test results. With optimized simulators, the integration of thermal hydraulic hardware tests with simulated neutronie response provides a bridge between electrically heated testing and fueled nuclear testing, providing a better assessment of system integration issues, characterization of integrated system response times and response characteristics, and assessment of potential design improvements' at a relatively small fiscal investment. Initial conceptual thermal simulator designs are determined by simple one-dimensional analysis at a single axial location and at steady state conditions; feasible concepts are then input into a detailed three-dimensional model for comparison to expected fuel pin performance. Static and dynamic fuel pin performance for a proposed reactor design is determined using SINDA/FLUINT thermal analysis software, and comparison is made between the expected nuclear performance and the performance of conceptual thermal simulator designs. Through a series of iterative analyses, a conceptual high fidelity design can developed. Test results presented in this paper correspond to a "first cut" simulator design for a potential liquid metal (NaK) cooled reactor design that could be applied for Lunar surface power. Proposed refinements to this simulator design are also presented.

Bragg-Sitton, Shannon M.↗

High Fidelity, Fuel-Like Thermal Simulators for Non-Nuclear Testing: Analysis and Initial Test Results

Non-nuclear testing can be a valuable tool in the development of a space nuclear power system, providing system characterization data and allowing one to work through various fabrication, assembly and integration issues without the cost and time associated with a full ground nuclear test. In a non-nuclear test bed, electric heaters are used to simulate the heat from nuclear fuel. Testing with non-optimized heater elements allows one to assess thermal, heat transfer. and stress related attributes of a given system, but fails to demonstrate the dynamic response that would be present in an integrated, fueled reactor system. High fidelity thermal simulators that match both the static and the dynamic fuel pin performance that would be observed in an operating, fueled nuclear reactor can vastly increase the value of non-nuclear test results. With optimized simulators, the integration of thermal hydraulic hardware tests with simulated neutronic response provides a bridge between electrically heated testing and fueled nuclear testing. By implementing a neutronic response model to simulate the dynamic response that would be expected in a fueled reactor system, one can better understand system integration issues, characterize integrated system response times and response characteristics and assess potential design improvements at relatively small fiscal investment. Initial conceptual thermal simulator designs are determined by simple one-dimensional analysis at a single axial location and at steady state conditions; feasible concepts are then input into a detailed three-dimensional model for comparison to expected fuel pin performance. Static and dynamic fuel pin performance for a proposed reactor design is determined using SINDA/FLUINT thermal analysis software, and comparison is made between the expected nuclear performance and the performance of conceptual thermal simulator designs. Through a series of iterative analyses, a conceptual high fidelity design is developed: this is followed by engineering design, fabrication, and testing to validate the overall design process. Test results presented in this paper correspond to a "first cut" simulator design for a potential liquid metal (NaK) cooled reactor design that could be applied for Lunar surface power. Proposed refinements to this simulator design are also presented.

Bragg-Sitton, Shannon M.↗

Enhancement of disposal efficiency for deep geological repositories based on three design factors - Decay heat optimization, increased thermal limit of the buffer and double-layer concept

This study investigates the enhancement of disposal efficiency for deep geological repositories (DGRs) based on three design factors: decay heat optimization, increased thermal limit of the buffer, and double-layer concept using coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) numerical simulations. Decay heat optimization is achieved by iteratively emplacing spent nuclear fuels having the maximum and minimum decay heat in a canister. Disposal areas can be reduced by 20 % to 40 % compared to the current reference disposal system in Korea (KRS+) in accordance with the combinations of the three design factors, alleviating challenges in site selection for the DGR. This study additionally identifies an optimal layer spacing of 500 m for the double-layer concept in the viewpoint of the buffer temperature, where thermal interaction between the upper and lower layers nearly disappears. However, determining the ultimate disposal and layer spacing requires engineering judgement, considering not only the thermal performance of the DGR but also various factors such as cost and difficulties of the construction and rock mass stability. DGRs designed with an increased thermal limit of the buffer poses a greater probability of rock mass failure around disposal tunnels and deposition holes due to elevated thermal stresses. Densely arranged heat sources for the DGRs with enhanced disposal efficiency lead to larger temperature increase even at the far-field scale, raising a possibility of thermally driven fracture shear activation with associated hydraulic, mechanical, and seismic changes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

LOCOMOTIVES - Comprehensive Impact and Cost Assessment Framework of Carbon Lowering Approaches for the US Rail Freight System

The goal of this project is to develop a tool to aid railroads and other stakeholders assess and approach the decarbonization of freight rail operations by identifying new, viable low-carbon energy storage and conversion systems for future locomotive systems and how they should be deployed on the existing US freight rail network. In the first quarter, the project focused on collecting data, establishing a simulation workflow, and engaging industry through the creation of the Industry Advisory Board (IAB). In the second quarter, the project focused on selecting fuel pathways and powertrain technologies, setting performance targets, conducting a techno-economic analyses, and developing the simulation framework that would serve as the backbone of the future toolhead. The third quarter involved developing an industry-oriented interactive dashboard powered by a five-step sequential framework, as well as holding industry advisory board meetings as per the initial technology-to-market plan. In the remaining project quarters, the NUFRIEND dashboard were fine-tuned with the help of IAB member feedback and in-depth scenario analyses were conducted to support the techno-economic analysis of energy sources. Additionally, dashboard documentation, project insights, and open-source code on GitHub were prepared and released. Throughout the project, the team completed testing and analysis of all model components, integrated all initial test scenarios, and conducted stakeholder engagement. Lower-carbon drop-in fuels can be deployed as admixtures and are considered uniform across the network at a desired penetration rate, while hydrogen and battery-electric technology deployment poses a more complex problem as they require significant investments to be made in the siting of refueling/charging facilities and the replacement of locomotive fleets. Thus, strategies for locating and sizing refueling/charging facilities on a railroad’s network to meet their energy demands were developed to inform deployment decisions. To address this challenge, the Northwestern University Freight Rail Infrastructure & Energy Network Decarbonization (NUFRIEND) framework presents a five-step sequential framework to select O-D paths, locate facilities, reroute flows, size facilities, and evaluate the deployment for alternative energy sources that require locomotive powertrains to be converted and new refueling infrastructure to be deployed. The NUFRIEND Framework is an industry-oriented tool for simulating the deployment of new energy technologies across the US freight rail network. The framework provides a comprehensive network-level optimization and scenario simulation tool for decarbonizing the freight rail sector, addressing the uncertainties surrounding technological developments by supporting sensitivity analyses for different operational and technological parameters through a transparent and flexible input module. It offers practical alternatives to diesel locomotives and can be applied for any railroad considering the specific network structure and freight demand, outputting evaluation metrics for the associated emissions and costs relative to diesel operations. A number of relevant simulation scenarios were run and analyzed for key insights on the value of different alternative technologies for freight rail decarbonization. The project developments and findings have been presented at numerous conferences and events.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Utilizing Direct Numerical Simulations of Transition and Turbulence in Design Optimization

Design optimization methods that use the Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equations with the associated turbulence and transition models, or other model-based forms of the governing equations, may result in aerodynamic designs with actual performance levels that are noticeably different from the expected values because of the complexity of modeling turbulence/transition accurately in certain flows. Flow phenomena such as wake-blade interaction and trailing edge vortex shedding in turbines and compressors (examples of such flows) may require a computational approach that is free of transition/turbulence models, such as direct numerical simulations (DNS), for the underlying physics to be computed accurately. Here we explore the possibility of utilizing DNS data in designing a turbine blade section. The ultimate objective is to substantially reduce differences between predicted performance metrics and those obtained in reality. The redesign of a typical low-pressure turbine blade section with the goal of reducing total pressure loss in the row is provided as an example. The basic ideas presented here are of course just as applicable elsewhere in aerodynamic shape optimization as long as the computational costs are not excessive.

Direct numerical simulations of transition and tur↗

Coupling 1D xRAGE simulations with machine learning for graded inner shell design optimization in double shell capsules

Advances in machine learning provide the ability to leverage data from expensive simulations of high-energy-density experiments to significantly cut down on computational time and costs associated with the search for optimal target designs. This study presents an application of cutting-edge Bayesian optimization methods to the one-dimensional (1D) design optimization of double shell graded layer targets for inertial confinement fusion experiments. This investigation attempts to reduce hydrodynamic instabilities while retaining high yields for future NIF experiments. Machine learning methods can use predictive physics simulations to identify graded layer designs from within the vast design space that demonstrate high predicted performance, including novel designs with high uncertainty in performance that may hold unexpected promise. By applying machine learning tools to the simulation design, we map the trade-off between 1D yield and instability, specifically isolating parameter ranges, which maintain high performance while showing significantly improved Rayleigh–Taylor stability over the point design. Furthermore, the groundwork laid in this study will be a useful design tool for future NIF experiments with graded layer targets.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗