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DOE OSTI2026

Observational Data for Next-Generation Climate Model Evaluation: Requirements, Considerations, and Best Practices

Climate model simulations are an important source of information about our planet’s climate system and also enable informed decision-making under different future scenarios. As a new archive of results from the next generation of climate models is anticipated to become available with the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 7 (CMIP7), the need to develop efficient and robust methods to evaluate models is paramount. Observations are an integral part of model evaluation, providing a means to quantify and understand the degree to which climate models can faithfully reproduce Earth system processes. Such analysis is critical for constraining climate projections, identifying areas of focus for model development, and assisting analysts in deciphering the utility of models for specific applications. Observations of Earth system come from a diversity of sources, span different space–time domains, and are produced by different communities, and each dataset features different data structures and formats, metadata standards, and its own unique uncertainties. Uncertainties in an observational dataset may stem from gaps in temporal and spatial coverage, instrumentation errors, or assumptions in retrieval and processing methods. How then does one ensure that observational data are ready for use and utilized in the most appropriate way for robust, rapid, and routine climate model evaluation? The CMIP7 Model Benchmarking Task Team with input from the broader climate modeling, model evaluation, and observational data communities present a vision and considerations for best practices toward the optimal and appropriate use of observational data to support next-generation climate model evaluation.

Climate models↗

DOE OSTI2024

Modeled estimates of permafrost hydrology and related fields for pan-Arctic region over the period 1980-2100

This dataset contains gridded estimates of total runoff (mm/day); subsurface runoff (mm/day); snow water equivalent (SWE, mm/day); vertical upward water flux of combined surface evaporation, evapotranspiration, and snow sublimation (mm/day); and soil temperature (C) across the pan-Arctic basin from simulations of the Permafrost Water Balance Model (PWBM v4). These data were generated to allow researchers to advance understanding of the changes unfolding in the Arctic's terrestrial water cycle under the influences of climate warming, hydrological cycle intensification, and permafrost thaw. The dataset will enable researchers to address important questions spanning multiple disciplines. For example, how will rising river flows exported to the coast impact critical zone ecosystems, near-shore ice dynamics, and ocean biogeochemical processes. Spatial resolution is 25x25 km with N=39926 grid cells spanning the domain. Three forcing datasets were used to drive simulations at an implicit daily time step over the period 1980-2100. Daily air temperature, precipitation, and wind speed data from the WATCH Forcing Data methodology applied to ERA5 reanalysis (W5E5) were used for meteorological forcings over the period 1980-2019. Simulations for the period 1980-2100 used meteorological data from two global climate models; IPSL-CM6A-LR and MPI-ESM1-2-HR. The PWBM hydrological outputs are organized by grid and month in gzipped ASCII text files within each archived tar file. Soil temperature is organized by grid cell and day of year from DOY 205 to DOY 260. No special software is required to work with these data. The package contains spatial domain and river basin information files. These data are most useful for analyses of the spatial and temporal variations in terrestrial hydrology and soil thermal dynamics. A manuscript describing the model simulations and associated analysis has been accepted for publication in The Cryosphere (Rawlins and Karmalkar, 2024).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Recent advances and challenges in optimization models for expansion planning of power systems and reliability optimization

Optimization models for expansion planning of power systems aim to determine capacities, investment timing, and location of power systems to satisfy the power demands while minimizing the total cost. The models have become complex in recent years to reflect both regulations on conventional energy sources and the increasing penetration of renewable energy sources (RES). This paper reviews the basic concepts and optimization models for expansion planning of power systems. We first explain the definition and features of generation expansion planning (GEP), transmission expansion planning (TEP), and generation and transmission expansion planning (GTEP). To address the computational challenges of large-scale expansion planning problems, we review several simplifications including temporal and spatial aggregation, and decomposition methods. This paper also addresses power system reliability defined as the probability of satisfying the load demand while withstanding failures of components. Finally, the goal of this paper is to provide a research overview, discuss trends in expansion planning of power systems, and suggest directions for future research.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2023

First estimation of high-resolution solar photovoltaic resource maps over China with Fengyun-4A satellite and machine learning

Fengyun-4A (FY-4A), which is the latest-generation Chinese geostationary meteorological satellite, measures solar reflection and thermal emission with high temporal, spatial, and spectral resolutions. It is expected to be highly beneficial for solar resource assessment and forecasting in China. This study is the first to estimate, using FY-4A and a random forest model, the global horizontal irradiance (GHI) at a 4-km–15-min spatio-temporal resolution over China, as a means to arrive at a solar photovoltaic (PV) resource map. In terms of GHI estimates, the root mean square error and mean bias error between hourly measured and retrieved values are 147.02 (35.2%), –5.64 W/m 2 (–1.4%), respectively, whereas the values of daily estimates are 29.20 (18.0%), –2.97 W/m 2 (–1.3%). The retrieval accuracy is found much better for instances with solar zenith angles smaller than 60°. Relatively larger errors are found at locations in the Sichuan Basin and northeastern China, which can be attributed to bright surfaces and/or strong cloud transients. With the retrieved irradiance, PV resource is derived through a physical model chain. The annual mean PV resource map suggests that, over most of the west areas, the annual mean effective irradiance exceeds 1700 kWh/m 2 , with the highest value found in Tibet (around 2000 kWh/m 2 per annum). Eastern China has an annual effective irradiance of only 1300–1500 kWh/m 2 . In conclusion, the region with poorest solar resource is the Sichuan Basin (less than 1100 kWh/m 2 per annum).

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Radiation and heat transport in divergent shock–bubble interactions

Shock–bubble interactions (SBIs) are important across a wide range of physical systems. In inertial confinement fusion, interactions between laser-driven shocks and micro-voids in both ablators and foam targets generate instabilities that are a major obstacle in achieving ignition. Experiments imaging the collapse of such voids at high energy densities (HED) are constrained by spatial and temporal resolution, making simulations a vital tool in understanding these systems. In this study, we benchmark several radiation and thermal transport models in the xRAGE hydrodynamic code against experimental images of a collapsing mesoscale void during the passage of a 300 GPa shock. We also quantitatively examine the role of transport physics in the evolution of the SBI. This allows us to understand the dynamics of the interaction at timescales shorter than experimental imaging framerates. We find that all radiation models examined reproduce empirical shock velocities within experimental error. Radiation transport is found to reduce shock pressures by providing an additional energy pathway in the ablation region, but this effect is small (∼1% of total shock pressure). Employing a flux-limited Spitzer model for heat conduction, we find that flux limiters between 0.03 and 0.10 produce agreement with experimental velocities, suggesting that the system is well-within the Spitzer regime. Higher heat conduction is found to lower temperatures in the ablated plasma and to prevent secondary shocks at the ablation front, resulting in weaker primary shocks. Finally, we confirm that the SBI-driven instabilities observed in the HED regime are baroclinically driven, as in the low energy case.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2018

Observing clouds in 4D with multi-view stereo photogrammetry

We report that newly installed stereo cameras ringing the Southern Great Plains (SGP) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) site in Oklahoma are providing a 4D gridded view of shallow clouds. Six digital cameras have been installed in pairs at a distance of 6 kilometers from the site and with a spacing of 500 meters between cameras in a pair. These pairs of cameras provide stereoscopic views of shallow clouds from all sides; when these data are combined, they allow for a complete stereo reconstruction. The result – the Clouds Optically Gridded by Stereo (COGS) product – is a 4D grid of cloudiness covering a 6 km × 6 km × 6 km cube at a spatial resolution of 50 meters and a temporal resolution of 20 seconds. This provides an unprecedented set of data on the sizes, lifetimes, and lifecycles of shallow clouds. Lastly, this type of information is critical for developing cloud macrophysical schemes for the next generation of weather and climate models.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

NASA NTRS1998

Comparison of Surface Ground Temperature from Satellite Observations and the Off-Line Land Surface GEOS Assimilation System

The surface ground temperature (Tg) is an important meteorological variable, because it represents an integrated thermal state of the land surface determined by a complex surface energy budget. Furthermore, Tg affects both the surface sensible and latent heat fluxes. Through these fluxes. the surface budget is coupled with the atmosphere above. Accurate Tg data are useful for estimating the surface radiation budget and fluxes, as well as soil moisture. Tg is not included in conventional synoptical weather station reports. Currently, satellites provide Tg estimates globally. It is necessary to carefully consider appropriate methods of using these satellite data in a data assimilation system. Recently, an Off-line Land surface GEOS Assimilation (OLGA) system was implemented at the Data Assimilation Office at NASA-GSFC. One of the goals of OLGA is to assimilate satellite-derived Tg data. Prior to the Tg assimilation, a thorough investigation of satellite- and model-derived Tg, including error estimates, is required. In this study we examine the Tg from the n Project (ISCCP DI) data and the OLGA simulations. The ISCCP data used here are 3-hourly DI data (2.5x2.5 degree resolution) for 1992 summer months (June, July, and August) and winter months (January and February). The model Tg for the same periods were generated by OLGA. The forcing data for this OLGA 1992 simulation were generated from the GEOS-1 Data Assimilation System (DAS) at Data Assimilation Office NASA-GSFC. We examine the discrepancies between ISCCP and OLGA Tg with a focus on its spatial and temporal characteristics, particularly on the diurnal cycle. The error statistics in both data sets, including bias, will be estimated. The impact of surface properties, including vegetation cover and type, topography, etc, on the discrepancies will be addressed.

Yang, R.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Using Remotely Sensed Data and Watershed and Hydrodynamic Models to Evaluate the Effects of Land Cover Land Use Change on Aquatic Ecosystems in Mobile Bay, AL

Alabama coastal systems have been subjected to increasing pressure from a variety of activities including urban and rural development, shoreline modifications, industrial activities, and dredging of shipping and navigation channels. The impacts on coastal ecosystems are often observed through the use of indicator species. One such indicator species for aquatic ecosystem health is submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV). Watershed and hydrodynamic modeling has been performed to evaluate the impact of land cover land use (LCLU) change in the two counties surrounding Mobile Bay (Mobile and Baldwin) on SAV stressors and controlling factors (temperature, salinity, and sediment) in the Mobile Bay estuary. Watershed modeling using the Loading Simulation Package in C++ (LSPC) was performed for all watersheds contiguous to Mobile Bay for LCLU scenarios in 1948, 1992, 2001, and 2030. Remotely sensed Landsat-derived National Land Cover Data (NLCD) were used in the 1992 and 2001 simulations after having been reclassified to a common classification scheme. The Prescott Spatial Growth Model was used to project the 2030 LCLU scenario based on current trends. The LSPC model simulations provided output on changes in flow, temperature, and sediment for 22 discharge points into the estuary. These results were inputted in the Environmental Fluid Dynamics Computer Code (EFDC) hydrodynamic model to generate data on changes in temperature, salinity, and sediment on a grid throughout Mobile Bay and adjacent estuaries. The changes in the aquatic ecosystem were used to perform an ecological analysis to evaluate the impact on SAV habitat suitability. This is the key product benefiting the Mobile Bay coastal environmental managers that integrates the influences of temperature, salinity, and sediment due to LCLU driven flow changes with the restoration potential of SAVs. Data products and results are being integrated into NOAA s EcoWatch and Gulf of Mexico Data Atlas online systems for dissemination to coastal resource managers and stakeholders.

Al-Hamdan, Mohammad Z.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Using Remotely Sensed Data and Watershed and Hydrodynamic Models to Evaluate the Effects of Land Cover Land Use Change on Aquatic Ecosystems in Mobile Bay, AL

Al-Hamdan, Mohammad↗

DOE OSTI2025

Solid-state platform for cooperative quantum dynamics driven by correlated emission

While traditionally regarded as an obstacle to quantum coherence, recent breakthroughs in quantum optics have shown that the dissipative interaction of a qubit with its environment can be leveraged to protect quantum states and synthesize many-body entanglement. Inspired by this progress, here we set the stage for the—as yet uncharted—exploration of analogous cooperative phenomena in hybrid solid-state platforms. We develop a comprehensive formalism for the quantum many-body dynamics of an ensemble of solid-state spin defects interacting with the magnetic field fluctuations of a common solid-state reservoir. Our framework applies to any solid-state reservoir whose fluctuating spin, pseudospin, or charge degrees of freedom generate magnetic fields. To understand whether correlations induced by dissipative processes can play a relevant role in a realistic experimental setup, we apply our model to a qubit array interacting via the spin fluctuations of a ferromagnetic bath. Our results show that the low-temperature collective relaxation rates of the qubit ensemble can display clear signatures of super- and subradiance, i.e., forms of cooperative dynamics traditionally achieved in atomic ensembles. We find that the solid-state analog of these cooperative phenomena is robust against spatial disorder in the qubit ensemble and thermal fluctuations of the magnetic reservoir, providing a route for their feasibility in near-term experiments. Finally, our work lays the foundation for a multiqubit approach to quantum sensing of solid-state systems and the direct generation of many-body entanglement in spin-defect ensembles. Furthermore, we discuss how the tunability of solid-state reservoirs opens up novel pathways for exploring cooperative phenomena in regimes beyond the reach of conventional quantum optics setups.

NV centers↗

NASA NTRS1986

Modeling of dust halo formation following comet outbursts Preliminary results

Evolution of gas and dust distributions following a spatially and temporally localized comet outburst was calculated using a hybrid kinetic - hydrodynamic method. It was found that a comet outburst resulted in significantly increased dust terminal velocities. As these higher terminal velocity values result in larger apex distances, therefore the outburst generates distinct dust envelopes in front of the regular dust coma. Such envelopes were observed at several comets (cf. comet Donati).

Gombosi, T. I.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Regional Assimilation of NASA Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) Data

The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPORT) Center seeks to accelerate the infusion of NASA Earth Science Enterprise (ESE) observations, data assimilation and modeling research into NW S forecast operations and decision-making. The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), is expected to advance climate research and weather prediction into the 21 st century. It is one of six instruments onboard Aqua, a satellite that is part of NASA s Earth Observing System. AIRS, along with two partner microwave sounding instruments, represents the most advanced atmospheric sounding system ever deployed in space. The system is capable of measuring the atmospheric temperature in the troposphere with radiosonde accuracies of 1 K over 1 km-thick layers under both clear and cloudy conditions, while the accuracy of the derived moisture profiles will exceed that obtained by radiosondes. It is imperative that the scientific community is prepared to take full advantage of next-generation satellite data that will become available within the next decade. The purpose of this paper is to describe a procedure designed to optimally assimilate AIRS data at high spatial resolution over both land and ocean. The assimilation system used in this study is the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) developed at the Forecast System Laboratory used extensively around the globe. Results will focus on quality control issues associated with AIRS, optimal assimilation strategies, and the impact of the AIRS data on subsequent numerical forecasts at 12 km produced by the next generation Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model.

Chou, Shih-Hung↗

DOE OSTI2023

Model assessment of synthetic jets for turbulent combustion experiments

Abstract Understanding turbulent premixed flames is essential to predict and optimize advanced combustion strategies, but critical capability gaps exist for collecting and validating measurements such as turbulent flame speed. Here, we evaluate synthetic jets as a new, promising turbulence generation device for constant-volume combustion chambers, quantitatively assessing turbulence intensity and spatial uniformity in a hypothetical 4,189-cm 3 vessel for various premixture conditions. Graphic Abstract

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Modeling of transverse stimulated Raman scattering in KDP/DKDP in large-aperture plates suitable for polarization control

Transverse stimulated Raman scattering (TSRS) in potassium dihydrogen phosphate (KDP) and deuterated potassium dihydrogen phosphate (DKDP) plates for large-aperture, inertial confinement fusion (ICF)-class laser systems is a well-recognized limitation giving rise to parasitic energy conversion and laser-induced damage. The onset of TSRS is manifested in plates exposed to the ultraviolet section of the beam. TSRS amplification is a coherent process that grows exponentially and is distributed nonuniformly in the crystal and at the crystal surfaces. To understand the growth and spatial distribution of TSRS energy in various configurations, a modeling approach has been developed to simulate the operational conditions relevant to ICF-class laser systems. Specific aspects explored in this work include (i) the behavior of TSRS in large-aperture crystal plates suitable for third-harmonic generation and use as wave plates for polarization control in current-generation ICF-class laser system configurations; (ii) methods, and their limitations, of TSRS suppression and (iii) optimal geometries to guide future designs.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2019

Joint emulation of Earth System Model temperature-precipitation realizations with internal variability and space-time and cross-variable correlation: fldgen v2.0 software description

Earth System Models (ESMs) are excellent tools for quantifying many aspects of future climate dynamics but are too computationally expensive to produce large collections of scenarios for downstream users of ESM data. In particular, many researchers focused on the impacts of climate change require large collections of ESM runs to rigorously study the impacts to both human and natural systems of low-frequency high-importance events, such as multi-year droughts. Climate model emulators provide an effective mechanism for filling this gap, reproducing many aspects of ESMs rapidly but with lower precision. The fldgen v1.0 R package quickly generates thousands of realizations of gridded temperature fields by randomizing the residuals of pattern scaling temperature output from any single ESM, retaining the spatial and temporal variance and covariance structures of the input data at a low computational cost. The fldgen v2.0 R package described here extends this capability to produce joint realizations of multiple variables, with a focus on temperature and precipitation in an open source software package available for community use (https://github.com/jgcri/fldgen). This substantially improves the fldgen package by removing the requirement that the ESM variables be normally distributed, and will enable researchers to quickly generate covarying temperature and precipitation data that are synthetic but faithful to the characteristics of the original ESM.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Spatiotemporal Variability in Wind Turbine Blade Leading Edge Erosion

Wind turbine blade leading edge erosion (LEE) reduces energy production and increases wind energy operation and maintenance costs. Degradation of the blade coating and ultimately damage to the underlying blade structure are caused by collisions of falling hydrometeors with rotating blades. The selection of optimal methods to mitigate/reduce LEE are critically dependent on the rates of coating fatigue accumulation at a given location and the time variance in the accumulation of material stresses. However, no such assessment currently exists for the United States of America (USA). To address this research gap, blade coating lifetimes at 883 sites across the USA are generated based on high-frequency (5-min) estimates of material fatigue derived using a mechanistic model and robust meteorological measurements. Results indicate blade coating failure at some sites in as few as 4 years, and that the frequency and intensity of material stresses are both highly episodic and spatially varying. Time series analyses indicate that up to one-third of blade coating lifetime is exhausted in just 360 5-min periods in the Southern Great Plains (SGP). Conversely, sites in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) exhibit the same level of coating lifetime depletion in over three times as many time periods. Thus, it may be more cost-effective to use wind turbine deregulation (erosion-safe mode) for damage reduction and blade lifetime extension in the SGP, while the application of blade leading edge protective measures may be more appropriate in the PNW. Annual total precipitation and mean wind speed are shown to be poor predictors of blade coating lifetime, re-emphasizing the need for detailed modeling studies such as that presented herein.

Pryor, Sara C. (ORCID:0000000348473440)↗

NASA NTRS1981

The photometric center of the Gegenschein

Model calculations are employed to assess two factors that determine the position of the photometric center of the Gegenschein: (1) the increased scattering efficiency of the interplanetary dust near backscattering (at scattering angles of 165 to 180 deg); and (2) the spatial density distribution of the dust. Computer-generated brightness contours are used to examine which of these two factors dominates. It is found that the effect of the enhanced scattering of light by dust in the backscattering region is more important than the effect of the spatial density distribution of the dust. This means that the photometric center should be observed at the antisolar point at all times, except possibly when the antisolar point is at its maximum displacement from the symmetry plane.

Misconi, N. Y.↗

NASA NTRS1991

A tentative identification of methanol as the progenitor of the 3.52-micron emission feature in several comets

Continuum emission has been detected during 3.44-3.64 micron spectral region observations of Comets P/Brorsen-Metcalf, Okazaki-Levy-Rudenko, and Levy. The spatial brightness profile of the 3.52-micron emission feature was measured and found to be consistent with uniform outflow from a central, unresolved source; the molecule generating the emission is either directly sublimated from the cometary surface or is a short-lived parent specie's dissociation product. The modeled IR spectrum of CH3OH implies the consistency of the observed spectra with a methanol origin for the 3.52 emission.

Hoban, Susan↗