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NASA NTRS2005

Buoyancy Suppression in Gases at High Temperatures

The computational fluid dynamics code FLUENT was used to study Rayleigh instability at large temperature differences in a sealed gas-filled enclosure with a cold top surface and a heated bottom wall (Benard problem). Both steady state and transient calculations were performed. The results define the boundaries of instability in a system depending on the geometry, temperature and pressure. It is shown that regardless of how fast the bottom-wall temperature can be ramped up to minimize the time spent in the unstable region of fluid motion, the eventual stability of the system depends on the prevailing final pressure after steady state has been reached. Calculations also show that the final state of the system can be different depending on whether the result is obtained via a steady-state solution or is reached by transient calculations. Changes in the slope of the pressure-versus-time curve are found to be a very good indicator of changes in the flow patterns in the system.

Kuczmarski, Maria A.↗
NASA NTRS2005

MRI-Based Computational Fluid Dynamics in Experimental Vascular Models: Toward the Development of an Approach for Prediction of Cardiovascular Changes During Prolonged Space Missions

A priority of NASA is to identify and study possible risks to astronauts health during prolonged space missions [l]. The goal is to develop a procedure for a preflight evaluation of the cardiovascular system of an astronaut and to forecast how it will be affected during the mission. To predict these changes, a computational cardiovascular model must be constructed. Although physiology data can be used to make a general model, a more desirable subject-specific model requires anatomical, functional, and flow data from the specific astronaut. MRI has the unique advantage of providing images with all of the above information, including three-directional velocity data which can be used as boundary conditions in a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) program [2,3]. MRI-based CFD is very promising for reproduction of the flow patterns of a specific subject and prediction of changes in the absence of gravity. The aim of this study was to test the feasibility of this approach by reconstructing the geometry of MRI-scanned arterial models and reproducing the MRI-measured velocities using CFD simulations on these geometries.

Spirka, T. A.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Influence of Turbulence on the Restraint of Liquid Jets by Surface Tension in Microgravity Investigated

Microgravity poses many challenges to the designer of spacecraft tanks. Chief among these are the lack of phase separation and the need to supply vapor-free liquid or liquidfree vapor to the spacecraft processes that require fluid. One of the principal problems of phase separation is the creation of liquid jets. A jet can be created by liquid filling, settling of the fluid to one end of the tank, or even closing a valve to stop the liquid flow. Anyone who has seen a fountain knows that jets occur in normal gravity also. However, in normal gravity, the gravity controls and restricts the jet flow. In microgravity, with gravity largely absent, surface tension forces must contain jets. To model this phenomenon, a numerical method that tracks the fluid motion and the surface tension forces is required. Jacqmin has developed a phase model that converts the discrete surface tension force into a barrier function that peaks at the free surface and decays rapidly away. Previous attempts at this formulation were criticized for smearing the interface. This can be overcome by sharpening the phase function, double gridding the fluid function, and using a higher order solution for the fluid function. The solution of this equation can be rewritten as two coupled Poisson equations that also include the velocity. After the code was implemented in axisymmetric form and verified by several test cases at the NASA Glenn Research Center, the drop tower runs of Aydelott were modeled. Work last year with a laminar model was found to overpredict Aydelott's results, except at the lowest Reynolds number conditions of 400. This year, a simple turbulence model was implemented by adding a turbulent viscosity based on the mixing-length hypothesis and empirical measurements of previous works. Predictions made after this change was implemented have been much closer to experimentally observed flow patterns and geyser heights. Two model runs is shown. The first, without any turbulence correction, breaks through the free surface and strikes the far end of the tank. In the second, the turbulence spreads the jet momentum over more of the free surface, enabling the surface tension forces to turn the jet back into the bulk liquid. The model geyser height with the second model is 1.1 cm. This is quite close to the 1.5-cm geyser height measured by Aydelott.

Chato, David J.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Transient Three-Dimensional Analysis of Nozzle Side Load in Regeneratively Cooled Engines

Three-dimensional numerical investigations on the start-up side load physics for a regeneratively cooled, high-aspect-ratio nozzle were performed. The objectives of this study are to identify the three-dimensional side load physics and to compute the associated aerodynamic side load using an anchored computational methodology. The computational methodology is based on an unstructured-grid, pressure-based computational fluid dynamics formulation, and a transient inlet condition based on an engine system simulation. Computations were performed for both the adiabatic and cooled walls in order to understand the effect of boundary conditions. Finite-rate chemistry was used throughout the study so that combustion effect is always included. The results show that three types of shock evolution are responsible for side loads: generation of combustion wave; transitions among free-shock separation, restricted-shock separation, and simultaneous free-shock and restricted shock separations; along with oscillation of shocks across the lip. Wall boundary conditions drastically affect the computed side load physics: the adiabatic nozzle prefers free-shock separation while the cooled nozzle favors restricted-shock separation, resulting in higher peak side load for the cooled nozzle than that of the adiabatic nozzle. By comparing the computed physics with those of test observations, it is concluded that cooled wall is a more realistic boundary condition, and the oscillation of the restricted-shock separation flow pattern across the lip along with its associated tangential shock motion are the dominant side load physics for a regeneratively cooled, high aspect-ratio rocket engine.

Wang, Ten-See↗
NASA NTRS2005

Martian Atmospheric Circulation and Climate

This project was submitted with four work tasks. The reviews recommended focusing on the following three, with an appropriately reduced budget: 1. In the first, we proposed to use Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) data to examine the general circulation of the atmosphere and to better constrain and validate a Mars General Circulation Model (GCM). 2. In the second, we proposed to examine processes responsible for the injection of dust into the atmosphere. We will conduct a global, seasonal survey of dust lifting events, and specifically of dust devil activity, using MGS MOC, MGS TES, and Odyssey THEMIS data. The results of this survey will be compared with model predictions of dust devil and other dust lifting processes. It is expected that some of the observational results will motivate specific simulations with the GCM and mesoscale models. 3. In the third task, we proposed to extract seasonal and spatial near-surface wind information from aeolian streaks. Detailed analysis will focus on streaks in the polar regions and in regions of large topography (such as Tharsis). The streak information will be used along with the mesoscale model to examine the processes that control local and regional scale flow patterns.

Richardson, Mark I.↗
NASA NTRS2005

DEVELOPMENT OF AN INFLIGHT COUNTERMEASURE TO MITIGATE POSTFLIGHT GAIT DYSFUNCTION

Following spaceflight crewmembers experience gait and postural instabilities due to inflight adaptive alterations in sensorimotor function. These changes can pose a risk to crew safety if nominal or emergency vehicle egress is required immediately following long-duration spaceflight. At present, no operational countermeasure is available to mitigate postflight locomotor disturbances. Therefore, the goal of this study is to develop an inflight training regimen that facilitates the recovery of locomotor function after long-duration spaceflight. The countermeasure we are developing is based on the concept of variable practice. During this type of training the subject gains experience producing the appropriate adaptive motor behavior under a variety of sensory conditions and response constraints. This countermeasure is built around current ISS treadmill exercise activities. Crewmembers will conduct their nominal inflight treadmill exercise while being exposed to variations in visual flow patterns. These variations will challenge the postural and locomotor systems repeatedly, thereby promoting adaptive reorganization in locomotor behavior. As a result of this training a subject learns to solve a class of motor problems, rather than a specific motor solution to one problem, Le., the subject learns response generalizability or the ability to "learn to learn" under a variety of environmental constraints. We anticipate that this training will accelerate recovery of postural and locomotor function during readaptation to gravitational environments following spaceflight facilitating neural adaptation to unit (Earth) and partial (Mars) gravity after long-duration spaceflight. The study calls for one group of subjects to perform the inflight treadmill training regimen while a control group of subjects performs only the nominal exercise procedures. Locomotor function in both groups is assessed before and after spaceflight using two tests of gait function: The Integrated Treadmill Locomotion Test (ITLT) and the Functional Mobility Test (FMT). The ITLT characterizes alterations in the integrated function of multiple sensorimotor subsystems responsible for the control of locomotion. This test calls for subjects to walk on a motorized treadmill while we assess changes in dynamic postural stability, head-trunk coordination, short-latency head stabilization responses, dynamic visual acuity, lower limb coordination strategies and gait cycle timing. To make these assessments we measure the following parameters while subjects walk on the treadmill: 1) full body 3-dimensional kinematics using a motion capture system (Motion Analysis Corp., Santa Rosa, CA); 2) the shock-wave transmitted from heel-strike to the head using triaxial accelerometers placed on the tibia and head (Entran, Fairfield, NJ); 3) vertical forces using an instrumented treadmill (Kistler Instrument Corp., Amherst, NY); 4) Dynamic visual acuity using Landolt Cs presented on a laptop computer located 4m from the eyes and 5) Gait cycle timing using foot-switches (Motion Lab Systems, Inc., Baton Rouge, LA) attached to the plantar surface of each shoe at the heel and toe. The FMT evaluates a subject's ability to perform challenging locomotor maneuvers similar to those encountered during an egress from a space vehicle. Subjects step over and duck under obstacles along with negotiating a series of pylons set up on a base of 10 cm thick medium density foam. The dependent measures for the FMT are time to complete the course and the number of obstacles touched. To date, we have collected pre and postflight locomotion data from Expeditions 5-9 who will serve as part of the control group for this study. Preliminary results comparing the recovery rates in gait control sub-systems obtained from the ITLT and FMT performance showed two recovery patterns: 1) a concordant recovery trend between gait control parameters and FMT performance indicating a restitution pattern of recovery and 2) gait controecovery that lagged recovery in FMT performance suggesting that improvement in locomotor function was attained through a pattern of substitution. These data suggest that recovery of postflight locomotor function may occur through adaptive mechanisms that lead to either restitution or substitution of function. Understanding the modes of postflight readaptation has implications for countermeasure development and testing and in astronaut postflight rehabilitation.

Bloomberg, J. J.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Development of an Inflight Countermeasure to Mitigate Postflight Gait Dysfunction

Following spaceflight crewmembers experience gait and postural instabilities due to inflight adaptive alterations in sensorimotor function. These changes can pose a risk to crew safety if nominal or emergency vehicle egress is required immediately following long-duration spaceflight. At present, no operational countermeasure is available to mitigate postflight locomotor disturbances. Therefore, the goal of this study is to develop an inflight training regimen that facilitates the recovery of locomotor function after long-duration spaceflight. The countermeasure we are developing is based on the concept of variable practice. During this type of training the subject gains experience producing the appropriate adaptive motor behavior under a variety of sensory conditions and response constraints. This countermeasure is built around current ISS treadmill exercise activities. Crewmembers will conduct their nominal inflight treadmill exercise while being exposed to variations in visual flow patterns. These variations will challenge the postural and locomotor systems repeatedly, thereby promoting adaptive reorganization in locomotor behavior. As a result of this training a subject learns to solve a class of motor problems, rather than a specific motor solution to one problem, Le., the subject learns response generalizability or the ability to "learn to learn" under a variety of environmental constraints. We anticipate that this training will accelerate recovery of postural and locomotor function during readaptation to gravitational environments following spaceflight facilitating neural adaptation to unit (Earth) and partial (Mars) gravity after long-duration spaceflight. The study calls for one group of subjects to perform the inflight treadmill training regimen while a control group of subjects performs only the nominal exercise procedures. Locomotor function in both groups is assessed before and after spaceflight using two tests of gait function: The Integrated Treadmill Locomotion Test (ITLT) and the Functional Mobility Test (FMT). The ITLT characterizes alterations in the integrated function of multiple sensorimotor subsystems responsible for the control of locomotion. This test calls for subjects to walk on a motorized treadmill while we assess changes in dynamic postural stability, head-trunk coordination, short-latency head stabilization responses, dynamic visual acuity, lower limb coordination strategies and gait cycle timing. To make these assessments we measure the following parameters while subjects walk on the treadmill: 1) full body 3-dimensional kinematics using a motion capture system (Motion Analysis Corp., Santa Rosa, CA); 2) the shock-wave transmitted from heel-strike to the head using triaxial accelerometers placed on the tibia and head (Entran, Fairfield, NJ); 3) vertical forces using an instumented treadmill (Kistler Instrument Corp., Amherst, NY); 4) Dynamic visual acuity using Landolt Cs presented on a laptop computer located 4m from the eyes and 5) Gait cycle timing using foot-switches (Motion Lab Systems, Inc., Baton Rouge, LA) attached to the plantar surface of each shoe at the heel and toe. The FMT evaluates s. subject's ability to perform challenging locomotor maneuvers similar to those encountered during an egress from a space vehicle. Subjects step over and duck under obstacles along with negotiating a series of pylons set up on a base of 10 cm thick medium density foam. The dependent measures for the FMT are time to complete the course and the number of obstacles touched. To date, we have collected pre and postflight locomotion data from Expeditions 5-9 who will serve as part of the control group for this study. Preliminary results comparing the recovery rates in gait control sub-systems obtained from the ITLT and FMT performance showed two recovery patterns: 1) a concordant recovery trend between gait control parameters and FMT performance indicating a restitution pattern of recovery and 2) gait controecovery that lagged recovery in FMT performance suggesting that improvement in locomotor function was attained through a pattern of substitution. These data suggest that recovery of postflight locomotor function may occur through adaptive mechanisms that lead to either restitution or substitution of function. Understanding the modes of postflight readaptation has implications for countermeasure development and testing and in astronaut postflight rehabilitation.

Bloomberg, J. J.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Video Animation of Ocean Topography From TOPEX/POSEIDON

Three video loops showing various aspects of the dynamic ocean topography obtained from the TOPEX/POSEIDON radar altimetry data will be presented. The first shows the temporal change of the global ocean topography during the first year of the mission. The time-averaged mean is removed to reveal the temporal variabilities. Temporal interpolation is performed to create daily maps for the animation. A spatial smoothing is also performed to retain only the large-sale features. Gyre-scale seasonal changes are the main features. The second shows the temporal evolution of the Gulf Stream. The high resolution gravimetric geoid of Rapp is used to obtain the absolute ocean topography. Simulated drifters are used to visualize the flow pattern of the current. Meanders and rings of the current are the main features. The third is an animation of the global ocean topography on a spherical earth. The JGM-2 geoid is used to obtain the ocean topography...

Fu, Lee-Lueng↗
NASA NTRS2009

Morphology and Density Structure of Post-CME Current Sheets

Eruption of a coronal mass ejection (CME) is believed to drag and open the coronal magnetic field, presumably leading to the formation of a large-scale current sheet and field relaxation by magnetic reconnection. This paper analyzes the physical characteristics of ray-like coronal features formed in the aftermath of CMEs, to confirm whether interpreting such phenomena in terms of a reconnecting current sheet is consistent with observations. Methods: The study focuses on UVCS/SOHO and LASCO/SOHO measurements of the ray width, density excess, and coronal velocity field as a function of the radial distance. The morphology of the rays implies that they are produced by Petschek-like reconnection in the large-scale current sheet formed in the wake of CME. The hypothesis is supported by the flow pattern, often showing outflows along the ray, and sometimes also inflows into the ray. The inferred inflow velocities range from 3 to 30 km/s, and are consistent with the narrow opening-angle of rays, which add up to a few degrees. The density of rays is an order of magnitude higher than in the ambient corona. The model results are consistent with the observations, revealing that the main cause of the density excess in rays is a transport of the dense plasma from lower to higher heights by the reconnection outflow.

Vrsnak, B.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Orbiter BLT Flight Experiment Wind Tunnel Simulations: Nearfield Flowfield Imaging and Surface Thermography

This paper reports a series of wind tunnel tests simulating the near-field behavior of the Space Shuttle Orbiter Boundary Layer Transition Detailed Test Objective (BLT DTO) flight experiment. Hypersonic flow over a flat plate with an attached BLT DTO-shaped trip was tested in a Mach 10 wind tunnel. The sharp-leading-edge flat plate was oriented at an angle of 20 degrees with respect to the freestream flow, resulting in post-shock edge Mach number of approximately 4. The flowfield was visualized using nitric oxide (NO) planar laser-induced fluorescence (PLIF). Flow visualizations were performed at 10 Hz using a wide-field of view and high-resolution NO PLIF system. A lower spatial resolution and smaller field of view NO PLIF system visualized the flow at 500 kHz, which was fast enough to resolve unsteady flow features. At the lowest Reynolds number studied, the flow was observed to be laminar and mostly steady. At the highest Reynolds number, flow visualizations showed streak instabilities generated immediately downstream of the trip. These instabilities transitioned to unsteady periodic and spatially irregular structures downstream. Quantitative surface heating imagery was obtained using the Temperature Sensitive Paint (TSP) technique. Comparisons between the PLIF flow visualizations and TSP heating measurements show a strong correlation between flow patterns and surface heating trends.

Danehy, Paul M.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Gravity Waves and Mesospheric Clouds in the Summer Middle Atmosphere: A Comparison of Lidar Measurements and Ray Modeling of Gravity Waves Over Sondrestrom, Greenland

We conducted gravity wave ray-tracing experiments within an atmospheric region centered near the ARCLITE lidar system at Sondrestrom, Greenland (67N, 310 deg E), in efforts to understand lidar observations of both upper stratospheric gravity wave activity and mesospheric clouds during August 1996 and the summer of 2001. The ray model was used to trace gravity waves through realistic three-dimensional daily-varying background atmospheres in the region, based on forecasts and analyses in the troposphere and stratosphere and climatologies higher up. Reverse ray tracing based on upper stratospheric lidar observations at Sondrestrom was also used to try to objectively identify wave source regions in the troposphere. A source spectrum specified by reverse ray tracing experiments in early August 1996 (when atmospheric flow patterns produced enhanced transmission of waves into the upper stratosphere) yielded model results throughout the remainder of August 1996 that agreed best with the lidar observations. The model also simulated increased vertical group propagation of waves between 40 km and 80 km due to intensifying mean easterlies, which allowed many of the gravity waves observed at 40 km over Sondrestrom to propagate quasi-vertically from 40-80 km and then interact with any mesospheric clouds at 80 km near Sondrestrom, supporting earlier experimentally-inferred correlations between upper stratospheric gravity wave activity and mesospheric cloud backscatter from Sondrestrom lidar observations. A pilot experiment of real-time runs with the model in 2001 using weather forecast data as a low-level background produced less agreement with lidar observations. We believe this is due to limitations in our specified tropospheric source spectrum, the use of climatological winds and temperatures in the upper stratosphere and mesosphere, and missing lidar data from important time periods.

LIDAR (LIGHT DETECTION AND RANGING)↗
NASA NTRS2011

The Solar Wind as a Laboratory for the Study of Magnetofluid Turbulence

The solar wind is the Sun's exosphere. As the solar atmosphere expands into interplanetary space, it is accelerated and heated. Data from spacecraft located throughout the heliosphere have revealed that this exosphere has velocities of several hundred kilometers/sec, densities at Earth orbit of about 5 particles/cm(exp 3), and an entrained magnetic field that at Earth orbit that is about 5 X 10(exp 5) Gauss. A fascinating feature of this magnetized plasma, which is a gas containing both charged particles and magnetic field, is that the magnetic field fluctuates in a way that is highly reminiscent of "Alfven waves", first defined by Hannes Alfven in 1942. Such waves have the defining property that the fluctuating magnetic fields are aligned with fluctuations in the velocity of the plasma and that, when properly normalized, the fluctuations have equal magnitudes. The observed alignment is not perfect and the resulting mismatch leads to a variety of complex interactions. In many respects, the flow patterns appear to be an example of fully developed magnetofluid turbulence. Recently, the dissipation range of this turbulence has been revealed by Search Coil magnetometer data from the four Cluster spacecraft. This tutorial will describe some of the properties of the large-scale and small-scale turbulence.

Goldstein, Melvyn L.↗
NASA NTRS2011

THEMIS Observations of a Transient Event at the Magnetopause

This study focuses on Time History of Events and Macroscale Interactions During Substorms (THEMIS) observations of a long \duration transient event in the vicinity of the dayside magnetopause at approx.15:34 UT on 18 July 2008 that was characterized by features typical of a magnetospheric flux transfer event (FTE): a bipolar negative-positive 5-7 nT signature in the Bn component, a positive monopolar variation in the Bl and Bm components, a approx.5-7 nT enhancement in the total magnetic field strength, and a transient density and flow enhancement. The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) was mostly radial and disturbed during the intervals studied; that is, it was favorable for the repeated formation, disappearance and reformation of the foreshock just upstream from the subsolar bow shock. We show that varying IMF directions and solar wind pressures created significant effects that caused the compressions of the magnetosphere and the bow shock and magnetopause motions and triggered the transient event. Global signatures of magnetic impulse events (MIEs) in ground magnetograms during the period suggest a widespread pressure pulse instead of a localized FTE as the cause of the event in the magnetosphere. The directions of propagation and the flow patterns associated with the event also suggest an interpretation in terms of pressure pulses.

Korotova, G. I.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Wet active chevron nozzle for controllable jet noise reduction

Disposed at or toward the trailing edge of one or more nozzles associated with a jet engine are injection ports which can selectively be made to discharge a water stream into a nozzle flow stream for the purpose of increasing turbulence in somewhat of a similar fashion as mechanically disposed chevrons have done in the known art. Unlike mechanically disposed chevrons of the known art, the fluid flow may be secured thereby increasing the engine efficiency. Various flow patterns, water pressures, orifice designs or other factors can be made operative to provide desired performance characteristics.

Thomas, Russell H.↗
NASA NTRS2011

The Solar Wind as a Magnetofluid Turbulence Laboratory

The solar wind is the Sun's exosphere. As the solar atmosphere expands into interplanetary space, it is accelerated and heated. Data from spacecraft located throughout the heliosphere have revealed that this exosphere has velocities of several hundred kilometers/sec, densities at Earth orbit of about 5 particles/cu cm, and an entrained magnetic field that at Earth orbit that is about 5 10-5 Gauss. A fascinating feature of the solar wind is that the magnetic field fluctuates in a way that is highly reminiscent of "Alfven waves, i.e., the fluctuating magnetic fields are more-or-less aligned with fluctuations in the velocity of the plasma and, with proper normalization, have approximately equal magnitudes. The imperfect (observed) alignment leads to a variety of complex interactions. In many respects, the flow patterns appear to be an example of fully developed magneto fluid turbulence. Recently, the dissipation range of this turbulence has been studied using search coil magnetometer data from the STAFF instrument on the four Cluster spacecraft. I will attempt to give an overview of selected properties of this large-scale and small-scale turbulence.

Goldstein, Melvyn L.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Wind Flow Simulation Around NASA KSC Vehicle Assembly Building

A model of the wind flow conditions around Kennedy Space Center (KSC) Vehicle Assembly Building (VA B) is presented. An incompressible Navier-Stokes flow solver was used to compute the flow field around fixed Launch Complex 39 (LC-39) buildings and structures. The 3-D flow field. including velocity magnitude and velocity vectors, was established to simulate the localized wind speeds and directions at specified locations in and around LC-39 buildings and structures. The results of this study not only help explain the physical phenomena of the flow patterns around LC-39 buildings but also are useful to the Shuttle personnel. Current Operations and Maintenance Requirements and Specifications (OMRS) for vehicle transfer operations are based on empirically derived historical data, and no detailed mathematical analysis of wind conditions around LC-39 structures has ever been accomplished.

Vu, B. T.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Numerical Simulations on Origin of Galilean Moons' Magnetic Anomalies

Galileo mission detected the magnetic anomalies originated from Galilean moons. These anomalies are likely generated in the moons interiors, under the influence of a strong ambient Jovian field. Among various possible generation mechanisms of the anomalies, we focus on magneto-convection and dynamos in the interiors via numerical simulation. To mimic the electromagnetic environment of the moons, we introduce in our numerical model an external uniform magnetic field B(sub 0) with a fixed orientation but varying field strength. Our results show that a finite B(sub 0) can substantially alter the dynamo processes inside the core. When the ambient field strength B(sub 0) increases to approximately 40% of the field generated by the pure dynamo action, the convective state in the core changes significantly: the convective flow decreases by 80% in magnitude, but the differential rotation becomes stronger in much of the fluid layer, leading to a stronger field generated in the core. The field morphologies inside the core tend to align with the ambient field, while the flow patterns show the symmetry-breaking effect under the influence of B(sub 0). Furthermore, the generated field tends to be temporally more stable.

Jiao, LiQuo↗
NASA NTRS2012

Influences of the El Nino Southern Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation on the Timing of the North American Spring

Detrended, modelled first leaf dates for 856 sites across North America for the period 1900-2008 are used to examine how the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) separately and together might influence the timing of spring. Although spring (mean March through April) ENSO and PDO signals are apparent in first leaf dates, the signals are not statistically significant (at a 95% confidence level (p <0.05)) for most sites. The most significant ENSO/PDO signal in first leaf dates occurs for El Nino and positive PDO conditions. An analysis of the spatial distributions of first leaf dates for separate and combined ENSO/PDO conditions features a northwest-southeast dipole that is significantly (at p <0.05) different than the distributions for neutral conditions. The nature of the teleconnection between Pacific SST's and first leaf dates is evident in comparable composites for detrended sea level pressure (SLP) in the spring months. During positive ENSO/PDO, there is an anomalous flow of warm air from the southwestern US into the northwestern US and an anomalous northeasterly flow of cold air from polar regions into the eastern and southeastern US. These flow patterns are reversed during negative ENSO/PDO. Although the magnitudes of first leaf date departures are not necessarily significantly related to ENSO and PDO, the spatial patterns of departures are significantly related to ENSO and PDO. These significant relations and the long-lived persistence of SSTs provide a potential tool for forecasting the tendencies for first leaf dates to be early or late.

McCabe, Gregory J.↗