SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “input uncertainty”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 757 records · Page 42

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2024

Enhancing the accuracy and generality of the Debye–Grüneisen Model: Optimizing the volume dependence for accurate predictions across varied compositions

In this work, we have introduced an optimized Debye-Grüneisen model that revolutionizes the determination of the Debye temperature and Grüneisen parameters. Unlike conventional methods, our model requires only the 0 K energy volume data for a material as input, eliminating the need to determine the bulk modulus and its pressure derivative, which often pose challenges due to numerical uncertainties. This unique feature sets our model apart from existing approaches and streamlines the process, enabling accurate predictions of thermal expansion behavior across various materials. To demonstrate its effectiveness, we showcase its excellent agreement with measured coefficients of thermal expansion (CTE) for the nickel-cobalt-chromium-aluminum-yttrium (Ni-Co-Cr-Al-Y) bond-coating system. Additionally, we apply our approach by conducting a high-throughput search for potential bond-coating materials among 90,000 compositions within the aluminum-cobalt-chromium-iron-nickel (Al-Co-Cr-Fe-Ni) system. From this extensive search, four compositions are synthesized, and the measured CTE values agree very well with theoretical predictions, hence validating our approach. In conclusion, the current optimized Debye-Grüneisen model combined with Density Functional Theory (DFT)-based thermodynamic database enables reliable and efficient high-throughput calculations of CTE of of a material without expensive phonon calculations.

Bond coating materials↗

DOE OSTI2025

United States multi-sector land use and land cover base maps to support human and Earth system models

Abstract Earth System Models (ESMs) require current and future projections of land use and landcover change (LULC) to simulate land-atmospheric interactions and global biogeochemical cycles. Among the most utilized land systems in ESMs are the Community Land Model (CLM) and the Land-Use Harmonization 2 (LUH2) products. Regional studies also use these products by extending coarse projections to finer resolutions via downscaling or by using multisector dynamic (MSD) models. One such MSD model is the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), which has its own independent land module, but often relies on CLM or LUH2 as spatial inputs for its base years. However, this requires harmonization of thematically incongruent land systems at multiple spatial resolutions, leading to uncertainty and error propagation. To resolve these issues, we develop a thematically consistent LULC system for the conterminous United States adaptable to multiple MSD frameworks to support research at a regional level. Using empirically derived spatial products, we developed a series of base maps for multiple contemporary years of observation at a 30-m resolution that support flexibility and interchangeability amongst LUH2, CLM, and GCAM classification systems.

Oliver, Jay↗

DOE OSTI2020

Probabilistic modeling and prediction of out-of-plane unidirectional composite lamina properties

Computational simulation provides an efficient means to predict the behavior of customized hybrid material configurations using validated, physics-based models. One limitation to this approach is the quality and quantity of available data to characterize the many constituent input properties. Therefore, a systematic approach to identify the most influential parameters on the hybrid behavior and quantify the corresponding uncertainty in predictive capabilities is required. Here, an approach using Bayesian multimodel inference and imprecise global sensitivity analysis is presented to investigate the effects of sparse constituent data on the prediction of composite material properties. The methodology allows the identification, using quantified uncertainties, of the most influential constituent material parameters for specified homogenized properties. This sensitivity analysis further enables a dimension reduction when assessing the influence of uncertainties on material properties and can be used to inform testing programs of the constituent properties that require additional testing/data collection in order to minimize uncertainty in macro-scale composite properties. The methodology is specifically demonstrated on the prediction and sensitivity analysis of out-of-plane mechanical properties of a unidirectional lamina.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS2014

Output Feedback M-MRAC Backstepping With Aerospace Applications

The paper presents a certainty equivalence output feedback backstepping adaptive control design method for the systems of any relative degree with unmatched uncertainties without over-parametrization. It uses a fast prediction model to estimate the unknown parameters, which is independent of the control design. It is shown that the system's input and output tracking errors can be systematically decreased by the proper choice of the design parameters. The approach is applied to aerospace control problems and tested in numerical simulations.

Output feedback adaptive control↗

NASA NTRS2020

Aircraft System Identification from Multisine Inputs and Frequency Responses

A frequency-domain approach is described for estimating parameters, such as stability and control derivatives, in aircraft flight dynamic models from measured input and output data. The approach uses orthogonal phase-optimized multisines for moving the aircraft control effectors, Fourier analysis for computing multiple-input multiple-output frequency responses, and a maximum likelihood estimator called frequency response error (FRE) for determining values and uncertainties for the model parameters. The approach is demonstrated using flight test data for two subscale airplanes: the T-2 generic transport model and the X-56A aeroelastic demonstrator. Results and comparisons with the output-error method indicated that the approach produced accurate estimates of stability and control derivatives and their uncertainties from flight test data.

Grauer, Jared A.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Multifidelity Monte Carlo estimation for efficient uncertainty quantification in climate-related modeling

Abstract. Uncertainties in an output of interest that depends on the solution of a complex system (e.g., of partial differential equations with random inputs) are often, if not nearly ubiquitously, determined in practice using Monte Carlo (MC) estimation. While simple to implement, MC estimation fails to provide reliable information about statistical quantities (such as the expected value of the output of interest) in application settings such as climate modeling, for which obtaining a single realization of the output of interest is a costly endeavor. Specifically, the dilemma encountered is that many samples of the output of interest have to be collected in order to obtain an MC estimator that has sufficient accuracy – so many, in fact, that the available computational budget is not large enough to effect the number of samples needed. To circumvent this dilemma, we consider using multifidelity Monte Carlo (MFMC) estimation which leverages the use of less costly and less accurate surrogate models (such as coarser grids, reduced-order models, simplified physics, and/or interpolants) to achieve, for the same computational budget, higher accuracy compared to that obtained by an MC estimator – or, looking at it another way, an MFMC estimator obtains the same accuracy as the MC estimator at lower computational cost. The key to the efficacy of MFMC estimation is the fact that most of the required computational budget is loaded onto the less costly surrogate models so that very few samples are taken of the more expensive model of interest. We first provide a more detailed discussion about the need to consider an alternative to MC estimation for uncertainty quantification. Subsequently, we present a review, in an abstract setting, of the MFMC approach along with its application to three climate-related benchmark problems as a proof-of-concept exercise.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

An Iterative Response-Surface-Based Approach for Chance-Constrained AC Optimal Power Flow Considering Dependent Uncertainty

A modern power system is characterized by a stochastic variation of the loads and an increasing penetration of renewable energy generation, which results in large uncertainties in its states. These uncertainties bring formidable challenges to the power system planning and operation process. To address these challenges, we propose a cost-effective, iterative response-surface-based approach for the chance-constrained AC optimal power-flow problem that aims to ensure the secure operation of the power systems considering dependent uncertainties. Starting from a stochastic-sampling-based framework, we first utilize the copula theory to simulate the dependence among multivariate uncertain inputs. Then, to reduce the prohibitive computational time required in the traditional Monte-Carlo method, we propose, instead of using the original complicated power-system model, to rely on a polynomial-chaos-based response surface. This response surface allows us to efficiently evaluate the time-consuming power-system model at arbitrary distributed sampled values with a negligible computational cost. This further enables us to efficiently conduct an online stochastic testing for the system states that not only screens out the statistical active constraints, but also assists in a better design of the tightened bounds without using any Gaussian or symmetric assumption. Finally, an iterative procedure is executed to fine-tune the optimal solution that better satisfies a predefined probability. The simulations conducted in multiple test systems demonstrate the excellent performance of the proposed method.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRS2021

In-Flight Turbulence Emulation for Fixed-Wing Aircraft using Equivalent Multisine Excitations

A procedure is discussed for designing control-equivalent turbulence input (CETI) excitations to emulate a fixed-wing aircraft response to turbulence while flying through calm air. These excitations are added to the actuator commands to produce the same motion of the aircraft that would have resulted from flying in actual turbulence. Although CETI models are usually shaping filters driven by white noise inputs, the equivalent control inputs in this report were constructed as multisine excitations, which enables mimicking the response to turbulence with arbitrary power spectra, within hardware limitations. Practical aspects of the approach are discussed, such as actuator dynamics, model uncertainty, actual in-flight turbulence, and others. The procedure is demonstrated using a flight dynamics simulation model of a subscale generic jet transport aircraft.

control-equivalent turbulence inputs (CETI)↗

NASA NTRS1987

Satellite lifetime prediction

Satellite lifetime predictions are critically dependent on the ability to forecast future solar and geomagnetic activity. These quantities are inputs to the atmospheric model with which values of atmospheric density are computed along a projected orbital path. Density values are combined with the predicted ballistic coefficient timeline to compute drag and predict decay histories. The major uncertainty in making predictions that pertain to the time periods that are years in the future is in the solar and geomagnetic activity projections, although the ballistic coefficient is also frequently in doubt. The study concludes that while present density models are adequate for planning, the inputs to them, particularly solar/geomagnetic activity indices, are unreliable.

Wittenstein, Gerald↗

DOE OSTI2025

Robust Optimal Control of Inverter-Based Resources Under Grid-Forming Operation

In this paper, we propose and solve a robust control problem for inverter-based resources under grid-forming operation to regulate the voltage and frequency. One major challenge is to mitigate the effect of unmeasurable load current disturbance, grid and load parametric uncertainties. Moreover, strong coupling between the state variables on both the AC and DC sides, as well as between the modulating control input and the frequency impose additional challenges. To address these challenges, first, a robust control problem is solved at the high level via transformation into an equivalent, but more tractable, optimal control problem. Then, in the middle layer a voltage control law is designed on the one side, and a frequency control law on the other side. Finally, an inverter filter current controller is designed to complete the controller design. Theoretical results are derived to provide stability guarantees for the resulting closed-loop system. Specifically, we show that the inverter current injection error is dissipative, the frequency error is semi-globally asymptotically stable, and the inverter terminal voltage error is globally asymptotically stable, all with provided sufficient conditions. Here, numerical simulation experiments are used to validate the theoretical claims. Furthermore, the developed controller is compared with existing work in literature to show the efficacy of the proposed approach.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRS1984

Using a commercial CAD system for simultaneous input to theoretical aerodynamic programs and wind-tunnel model construction

The Computer Aided Design (CAD) system's common geometry database was used to generate input for theoretical programs and numerically controlled (NC) tool paths for wind tunnel part fabrication. This eliminates the duplication of work in generating separate geometry databases for each type of analysis. Another advantage is that it reduces the uncertainty due to geometric differences when comparing theoretical aerodynamic data with wind tunnel data. The system was adapted to aerodynamic research by developing programs written in Design Analysis Language (DAL). These programs reduced the amount of time required to construct complex geometries and to generate input for theoretical programs. Certain shortcomings of the Design, Drafting, and Manufacturing (DDM) software limited the effectiveness of these programs and some of the Calma NC software. The complexity of aircraft configurations suggests that more types of surface and curve geometry should be added to the system. Some of these shortcomings may be eliminated as improved versions of DDM are made available.

Enomoto, F.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Updates of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer On-Orbit Calibration Uncertainty Assessments

The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instruments have successfully operated for more than 18 and 16 years, respectively, on-board the NASA’s Earth Observing System Terra and Aqua spacecraft. Both Terra and Aqua MODIS have significantly contributed to the advance of global Earth remote sensing applications with a broad range of science products that have been continuously produced since the beginning of each mission and freely distributed to users worldwide. MODIS collects data in 20 reflective solar bands (RSB) and 16 thermal emissive bands (TEB), covering wavelengths from 0.41 to 14.4 μm. Its level 1B (L1B) data products, which provide the input for the MODIS high-level science products, include the top of the atmosphere reflectance factors for the RSB, radiances for both the RSB and TEB, and associated uncertainty indices (UI) at a pixel-by-pixel level. This paper provides a brief review of MODIS L1B calibration algorithms, including a number of improvements made in recent years. It presents an update of sensor calibration uncertainty assessments with a focus on several new contributors resulting from on-orbit changes in sensor characteristics, approaches developed to address these changes, and the impact due to on-orbit changes on the L1B data quality. Also discussed are remaining challenges and potential improvements to be made to continuously maintain sensor calibration and data quality, particularly those related to the quality of MODIS L1B uncertainty.

Spectroradiometer↗

DOE OSTI2021

An Experimental Study of Uncertainty Considerations Associated with Predicting Auto-ignition Timing using Livengood-Wu Integral Method

The application of the Livengood-Wu (LW) integral method as a tool to estimate knock onset in spark ignited (SI) engines and combustion phasing in advanced compression ignition (ACI) engines has been demonstrated through simulations several times. In this study, the effect of uncertainties associated with parameters required for the LW integral method, when used as a tool for model based control of ignition timing in an ACI engine, were experimentally studied using five full boiling range gasoline fuels. As a first step, the method was applied to experimental data from a rapid compression machine and it was found that the ability of the LW integral method to predict ignition timing was very sensitive to the performance of the chemical kinetic model of each fuel. The method was subsequently applied to experimental data from a single-cylinder gasoline engine with simple approximations for the LW integral input parameters, and it was found that the predicted time of ignition was significantly different from the actual start of combustion. Systematic evaluation of various parametric uncertainties conducted thereafter showed that the uncertainty in cylinder charge temperature has the greatest influence. Improved methods of estimating cylinder charge temperature are proposed to account for the previously determined corrections, to enable the use of the LW integral method for model based control of ignition timing.

Compression Ignition↗

DOE OSTI2022

The WRF-Solar Ensemble Prediction System: Development, Test, and Validation

Providing reliable probabilistic solar radiation information is needed to improve management of the uncertainty and variability of solar generation. Thus, guidance on how to develop skillful and accurate ensemble forecasts is essential and it will ultimately contribute to integration of high amounts of solar energy on the grid. A team from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and the National Center for Atmospheric Research had been collaborating to develop the WRF-Solar ensemble prediction system (WRF-Solar EPS) in the past three years to produce probabilistic solar irradiance forecasts and better predict solar energy by quantifying forecast uncertainty. The WRF-Solar EPS basically generates ensemble members for solar irradiance based on stochastic perturbations to provide intraday and day-ahead probabilistic forecasts. This study will present main research steps in developing the WRF-Solar EPS including: (a) tangent linear analysis for identifying key input variables of six WRF-Solar modules significantly related to predicting of cloud and solar irradiance, (b) combining stochastic perturbation technique with the WRF-Solar model, and (c) ensemble calibration method to decrease error and uncertainty of ensemble-based solar forecasts. The capability of WRF-Solar EPS is now updated to the most recent version of standard WRF model. This presentation will summarize comprehensive results from the evaluation of forecasts against the National Solar Radiation Data Base as well as ground-measured observations. Moreover, we will introduce the user's guide for WRF-Solar EPS (e.g., parameters to configure stochastic perturbations) and future extension of this research.

day-ahead forecast↗

NASA NTRS2020

Observational Constraints on the Effective Climate Sensitivity from the Historical Period

The observed warming in the atmosphere and ocean can be used to estimate the climate sensitivity linked to present-day feedbacks, which is referred to as the effective climate sensitivity (Shist). However, such an estimate is affected by uncertainty in the radiative forcing, particularly aerosols, over the historical period. Here, we make use of detection and attribution techniques to derive the surface air temperature and ocean warming that can be attributed directly to greenhouse gas increases. These serve as inputs to a simple energy budget to infer the likelihood of Shist in response to observed greenhouse gases increases over two time periods (1862–2012 and 1955–2012). The benefit of using greenhouse gas attributable quantities is that they are not subject to uncertainties in the aerosol forcing (other than uncertainty in the attribution to greenhouse gas versus aerosol forcing not captured by the multi-model aerosol response pattern). The resulting effective climate sensitivity estimate, Shist, ranges from 1.3 °Cto 3.1 °C(5%–95% range) over the full instrumental period (1862–2012) for our best estimate, and gets slightly wider when considering further uncertainties. This estimate increases to 1.7 °C–4.6 °C if using the shorter period (1955–2012).We also evaluate the climate model simulated surface air temperature and ocean heat content increase in response to greenhouse gas forcing over the same periods, and compare them with the observationally-constrained values.We find that that the ocean warming simulated in greenhouse gas only simulations in models considered here is consistent with that attributed to greenhouse gas increases from observations, while one model simulates more greenhouse gas-induced surface air warming than observed. However, other models with sensitivity outside our range show greenhouse gas warming that is consistent with that attributed in observations, emphasising that feedbacks during the historical period may differ from the feedbacks at CO2 doubling and from those at true equilibrium.

Tokarska, Katarzyna B↗

DOE OSTI2021

Scalable statistical inference of photometric redshift via data subsampling

Handling big data has largely been a major bottleneck in traditional statistical models. Consequently, when accurate point prediction is the primary target, machine learning models are often preferred over their statistical counterparts for bigger problems. But full probabilistic statistical models often outperform other models in quantifying uncertainties associated with model predictions. We develop a data-driven statistical modeling framework that combines the uncertainties from an ensemble of statistical models learned on smaller subsets of data carefully chosen to account for imbalances in the input space. We demonstrate this method on a photometric redshift estimation problem in cosmology, which seeks to infer a distribution of the redshift—the stretching effect in observing the light of far-away galaxies—given multivariate color information observed for an object in the sky. Our proposed method performs balanced partitioning, graph-based data subsampling across the partitions, and training of an ensemble of Gaussian process models.

data subsampling↗

DOE OSTI2025

Solving key challenges in collider physics with foundation models

Foundation models are neural networks that are capable of simultaneously solving many problems. Large language foundation models like ChatGPT have revolutionized many aspects of daily life, but their impact for science is not yet clear. In this paper, we use a new foundation model for hadronic jets to solve three key challenges in collider physics. In particular, we show how experiments can (1) save significant computing power when developing reconstruction algorithms, (2) perform a complete uncertainty quantification for high-dimensional measurements, and (3) search for new physics with model agnostic methods using low-level inputs. In each case, there are significant computational or methodological challenges with current methods that limit the science potential of deep learning algorithms. By solving each problem, we take jet foundation models beyond proof-of-principle studies and into the toolkit of practitioners.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Low Energy Analysis of NuclEar Reactions v0.0.1

This is a lightweight, easy to use Python analysis package for analyzing public low-energy nuclear reaction data relevant to understanding basic nuclear processes, often of relevance to Solar Fusion, to improve our theoretical understanding of them, and enable connections with input from lattice QCD. It performs the analysis in a Bayesian Framework and supports Bayesian Model Averaging to provide a robust uncertainty quantification.

Walker-Loud, André↗