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At least 757 records · Page 42

Human HLTF mediates postreplication repair by its HIRAN domain-dependent replication fork remodelling

Defects in the ability to respond properly to an unrepaired DNA lesion blocking replication promote genomic instability and cancer. Human HLTF, implicated in error-free replication of damaged DNA and tumour suppression, exhibits a HIRAN domain, a RING domain, and a SWI/SNF domain facilitating DNA-binding, PCNA-polyubiquitin-ligase, and dsDNA-translocase activities, respectively. Here, we investigate the mechanism of HLTF action with emphasis on its HIRAN domain. We found that in cells HLTF promotes the filling-in of gaps left opposite damaged DNA during replication, and this postreplication repair function depends on its HIRAN domain. Our biochemical assays show that HIRAN domain mutant HLTF proteins retain their ubiquitin ligase, ATPase and dsDNA translocase activities but are impaired in binding to a model replication fork. These data and our structural study indicate that the HIRAN domain recruits HLTF to a stalled replication fork, and it also provides the direction for the movement of the dsDNA translocase motor domain for fork reversal. We suggest functional similarities between the HIRAN, the OB, the HARP2, and other domains found in certain motor proteins, which may explain why only a subset of DNA translocases can carry out fork reversal.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

CRADA Final Report: Weld Predictor App

Welding is an important manufacturing process used in a broad range of industries and market sectors, including automotive, aerospace, heavy manufacturing, medical, and defense. During welded fabrication, high localized heat input and subsequent rapid cooling result in the creation of residual stresses and distortion. These residual stresses can significantly affect the fatigue resistance, cracking behavior, and load-carrying capacity of welded structures during service. Further, additional fitting and tacking time is often required to fit distorted subassemblies together, resulting in non-value added cost. Using trial-and-error methods to determine which welding parameters, welding sequences, and fixture designs will most effectively reduce distortion is a time-consuming and expensive process. For complex structures with many welds, this approach can take several months. For this reason, efficient and accurate methods of mitigating distortion are in-demand across all industries where welding is used. Analytical and computational methods and commercial software tools have been developed to predict welding-induced residual stresses and distortion. Welding process parameters, fixtures, and tooling can be optimized to reduce the HAZ softening and minimize weld residual stress and distortion, improving performance and reducing design, fabrication and testing costs. However, weld modeling technology tools are currently accessible only to engineers and designers with a background in finite element analysis (FEA) who work with large manufacturers, research institutes, and universities with access to high-performance computing (HPC) resources. Small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in the US do not typically have the human and computational resources needed to adopt and utilize weld modeling technology. To allow an engineer with no background in FEA and SMEs to gain access to this important design tool, EWI and the Ohio Supercomputer Center (OSC) developed the online weld application software tool “WeldPredictor” ( https://eweldpredictor.ewi.org ). About 1400 users have tested this application. This project marked the beginning of development on the next version of WeldPredictor that addresses many outstanding features of the original, including 3D models, allow more material hardening laws, model material phase transformation, and uses open source finite element solvers to quickly solve problems (as opposed to expensive commercial tools).

42 ENGINEERING↗

Reactor Power Level Estimation by Fusing Multi-Modal Sensor Measurements

Estimates of the power level of a nuclear reactor based on measurements from an independent monitoring sensor system can help in the compliance verification of its declared operations. We present a three-level fusion method to estimate the power level of a nuclear reactor using features derived from infrared, electromagnetic, and acoustic sensor measurements collected in proximity to the reactor. Based on a simplified analytical model of the secondary coolant system of the reactor, we identify partial regression functions of the power level in terms of the temperature difference between inlet and outlet of coolant pipes, and the activity levels of four fans and four pumps, which are estimated as features from the sensor measurements. The power level estimator employs a combination of aggregate and complementary fusion steps at three levels to incorporate the multi-modal features in a structure that reflects the secondary cooling system and its partial regression functions. Using the measurements from a test campaign at an operational reactor, we show that this estimator achieves 3.47% or lower root mean square error under 5-fold cross validation. More generally, these results illustrate a progressive reduction in estimation error as additional modalities are appropriately incorporated, and that the fuser outperforms single modality features and their sub-combinations.

Rao, Nageswara↗

When ancient numerical demons meet physics-informed machine learning: adjoint-based gradients for implicit differentiable modeling

Recent advances in differentiable modeling, a genre of physics-informed machine learning that trains neural networks (NNs) together with process-based equations, have shown promise in enhancing hydrological models' accuracy, interpretability, and knowledge-discovery potential. Current differentiable models are efficient for NN-based parameter regionalization, but the simple explicit numerical schemes paired with sequential calculations (operator splitting) can incur numerical errors whose impacts on models' representation power and learned parameters are not clear. Implicit schemes, however, cannot rely on automatic differentiation to calculate gradients due to potential issues of gradient vanishing and memory demand. Here we propose a “discretize-then-optimize” adjoint method to enable differentiable implicit numerical schemes for the first time for large-scale hydrological modeling. The adjoint model demonstrates comprehensively improved performance, with Kling–Gupta efficiency coefficients, peak-flow and low-flow metrics, and evapotranspiration that moderately surpass the already-competitive explicit model. Therefore, the previous sequential-calculation approach had a detrimental impact on the model's ability to represent hydrological dynamics. Furthermore, with a structural update that describes capillary rise, the adjoint model can better describe baseflow in arid regions and also produce low flows that outperform even pure machine learning methods such as long short-term memory networks. The adjoint model rectified some parameter distortions but did not alter spatial parameter distributions, demonstrating the robustness of regionalized parameterization. Despite higher computational expenses and modest improvements, the adjoint model's success removes the barrier for complex implicit schemes to enrich differentiable modeling in hydrology.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Pragmatic Uncertainty Quantification and Propagation in Inverse Estimation of Structural Dynamics Parameters given Material Property Uncertainties and Limited Sensor Data

In this report we demonstrate some relatively simple and inexpensive methods to effectively account for various sources of epistemic lack-of-knowledge type uncertainty in inverse problems. The demonstration problem involves inverse estimation of six parameters of a bolted joint that attaches a kettlebell shaped object to a thick plate. The parameters are efficiently inverted in a modal-based model calibration using gradient-based optimization. Two material properties of the kettlebell are treated as uncertain to within given epistemic uncertainty bounds. We apply and test interval and sparse-sample probabilistic approaches to account for uncertainty in the estimated parameters (and various scalar functionals of the parameters as generic quantities of interest, QOIs) due to uncertainties in the material properties. We also investigate the error effects of limited numbers of vibration sensors (accelerometers) on the kettlebell and plate, and therefore abbreviated excitation/response information in the parameter inversions. We propose and demonstrate a Leave-K-Sensors-Out “cross-prediction” UQ approach to estimate related uncertainties on the parameters and QOI functionals. We indicate how uncertainties from material properties and limited sensors are treated in a combined manner. The economical combined UQ approach involves just three to five samples (i.e. three to five inverse simulations), with no added complication or error/uncertainty from use of surrogate models for affordability. Finally, we describe a related economical UQ approach for handling potential parameter solution non-uniqueness and numerical optimization related precision uncertainties in the estimated parameter values. Indicated further research is identified.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Machine-learning prediction for quasiparton distribution function matrix elements

There have been rapid developments in the direct calculation in lattice QCD (LQCD) of the Bjorken-x dependence of hadron structure through large-momentum effective theory (LaMET). LaMET overcomes the previous limitation of LQCD to moments (that is, integrals over Bjorken x) of hadron structure, allowing LQCD to directly provide the kinematic regions where the experimental values are least known. LaMET requires large-momentum hadron states to minimize its systematics and allow us to reach small- x reliably. This means that very fine lattice spacing to minimize lattice artifacts at order $(P_za)^n$ will become crucial for next-generation LaMET-like structure calculations. Furthermore, such calculations require operators with long Wilson-link displacements, especially in finer lattice units, increasing the communication costs relative to that of the propagator inversion. In this work, we explore whether machine-learning algorithms can make predictions of correlators to reduce the computational cost of these LQCD calculations. We consider two algorithms, gradient-boosting decision tree and linear models, applied to LaMET data, the matrix elements needed to determine the kaon and $η_s$ unpolarized parton distribution functions (PDFs), meson distribution amplitude (DA), and the nucleon gluon PDF. We find that both algorithms can reliably predict the target observables with different prediction accuracy and systematic errors. The predictions from smaller displacement z to larger ones work better than those for momentum p due to the higher correlation among the data.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Modeling of Stress and Temperature Effects on Creep of Reduced Activation Ferritic-Martensitic Steel Alloy F82H (Tertiary Creep Modeling of RAFM Steel)

A Bayesian optimization procedure is presented for calibrating a multi-mechanism micromechanical model for creep to experimental data of F82H steel. Reduced activation ferritic martensitic (RAFM) steels based on are the most promising candidates for some fusion reactor structures. Although there are indications that RAFM steel could be viable for fusion applications at temperatures up to 600 °C, the maximum operating temperature will be determined by the creep properties of the structural material and the breeder material compatibility with the structural material. Due to the relative paucity of available creep data on F82H steel compared to other alloys such as Grade 91 steel, micromechanical models are sought for simulating creep based on relevant deformation mechanisms. As a point of departure, this work recalibrates a model form that was previously proposed for Grade 91 steel to match creep curves for F82H steel. Due to the large number of parameters (9) and cost of the nonlinear simulations, an automated approach for tuning the parameters is pursued using a recently developed Bayesian optimization for functional output (BOFO) framework [1]. Incorporating extensions such as batch sequencing and weighted experimental load cases into BOFO, a reasonably small error between experimental and simulated creep curves at two load levels is achieved in a reasonable number of iterations. Validation with an additional creep curve provides confidence in the fitted parameters obtained from the automated calibration procedure to describe the creep behavior of F82H steel at 600 °C. The model is further extended using a temperature dependent scaling law approach to simulate creep response between 550 °C and 650 °C. The efficacy of this extension is compared with the previously used scaling law approach for Grade 91 steel.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Measuring the muon precession frequency in the E989 Fermilab g-2 experiment

Since more than 50 years the electron and muon anomalies, $a_e$ and $a_\mu$, defined in terms of the gyromagnetic factor $g_i$ for particle $i$ as $a_i=(g_i-2)/2$, have provided a deep insight into the quantum structure of elementary particles.They have been, and continue to be, a milestone for the development of the Standard Model of Particle Physics against which all new theories have to be compared.For almost 20 years, the experimental value of $a_\mu$ has shown a tantalizing discrepancy of more than $3 \sigma$ from the theoretical prediction making it mandatory for experimentalists to improve the current result, dominated by the E821 experiment at BNL\cite{BNL}. The Muon $g-2$ E989 experiment at Fermilab will use the same storage ring technique used at BNL, and previously in the CERN-III experiment, with the goal of decreasing by a factor of 4 the current error on $a_\mu$, which will allow for a finer comparison with the theoretical prediction. E989 started collecting data in winter 2018 accumulating, in the period April-July 2018 (Run1) almost twice the statistics of the previous experiment (before application of data quality cuts). In this document, the experiment will be briefly described, underlying the improvements which will allow to reduce the systematic error, and some preliminary result will be shown.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Systematic improvement of redox potential calculation of Fe(III)/Fe(II) complexes using a three-layer micro-solvation model

Electrochemical transformations of metal ions in aqueous media are challenging to model accurately due to the dynamic solvation structure surrounding ions at different charge states. Predictive modeling at the atomistic scale is essential for understanding these solvation architectures but is often computationally prohibitive. In this contribution, we present a simple, fast, and accurate three-layer micro-solvation model to evaluate the redox potential of metal ions in aqueous solutions. Our model, developed and validated for Fe 3+ /Fe 2+ redox potentials, combines the DFT-based geometry optimizations of the octahedral Fe complex with two layers of explicit water molecules to capture solute–solvent interactions and an implicit solvation model to account for bulk solvent effects. This approach yields accurate predictions for Fe 3+ /Fe 2+ redox potentials in water, achieving errors of 0.02 V with ωB97X-V, 0.01 V with ωB97X-D3, 0.04 V with ωB97M-V, and 0.02 V with B3LYP-D3 functionals. We further demonstrate the generality of our model by applying it to additional metal complexes, including the challenging Fe(CN) 6 3−/4− system, where our model successfully achieves close agreement with experimental values, with an error of 0.07 V and an average error of 0.21 V for all five systems. In summary, the presented simple solvation model has broad applicability and potential for enhancing computational efficiency in redox potential predictions across various chemical and industrial processes of metal ions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Analysis into Asymptotic Convergence to Full Nonlinear Solutions and Exploration of the Implication of Numerical Operator Mutation of Differential Systems

A robust, sufficiently accurate and practical hydrodynamic simulation toolset is required as a key component of the modeling and simulation of air-gap electrostatic discharge events. This work was performed to complement these ongoing efforts. In particular, hydrodynamic simulations must be vetted to ensure they are robust and sufficiently accurate over relevant characteristic scales. Verification models were generated in order to cultivate the technical knowledge and expertise needed to properly create, implement and execute numerical simulations. Furthermore, this effort was utilized extensively to educate students on the mathematical and numerical principles underlying hydrodynamic simulations. This education opportunity, provided in a holistic and rigorous manner, has greatly benefited developing scientists and engineers with the necessary understandings and toolsets required to excel at accomplishing the task at hand, and, more generally, it has enabled them to generate key programmatic deliverables. This report articulates several subtilties; specifically, how perturbations, nonlinear behavior, and dissipative mechanisms influence numerical stability, how to properly structure mathematical and numerical solutions, and how to properly generate error estimation/assignment. A more rigorous discussion of the consequences of such topics can be found in the body of this report in Chapters 2 and 3 with qualitative findings discussed in Chapter 4.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Tensor networks, p -adic fields, and algebraic curves: arithmetic and the AdS 3 /CFT 2 correspondence

One of the many remarkable properties of conformal field theory in two dimensions is its connection to algebraic geometry. Since every compact Riemann surface is a projective algebraic curve, many constructions of interest in physics (which a priori depend on the analytic structure of the spacetime) can be formulated in purely algebraic language. This opens the door to interesting generalizations, obtained by taking another choice of field: for instance, the p-adics. Herein, we generalize the $\mathrm{AdS} / \mathrm{CFT}$ correspondence according to this principle; the result is a formulation of holography in which the bulk geometry is discrete—the Bruhat–Tits tree for $\mathrm{PGL} (2, \mathbb{Q}_p)$—but the group of bulk isometries nonetheless agrees with that of boundary conformal transformations and is not broken by discretization. We anticipate that this forms the natural geometric setting for tensor networks that have been proposed as models of bulk reconstruction via quantum error correcting codes; in certain cases, geodesics in the Bruhat–Tits tree reproduce those constructed using quantum error correction. Other aspects of holography also hold: Standard holographic results for massive free scalar fields in a fixed background carry over to the tree, whose vertical direction can be interpreted as a renormalization-group scale for modes in the boundary $\mathrm{CFT}$. Higher-genus bulk geometries (the $\mathrm{BTZ}$ black hole and its generalizations) can be understood straightforwardly in our setting, and the Ryu–Takayanagi formula for the entanglement entropy appears naturally

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Validation metrics for turbulent plasma transport

Developing accurate models of plasma dynamics is essential for confident predictive modeling of current and future fusion devices. In modern computer science and engineering, formal verification and validation processes are used to assess model accuracy and establish confidence in the predictive capabilities of a given model. This paper provides an overview of the key guiding principles and best practices for the development of validation metrics, illustrated using examples from investigations of turbulent transport in magnetically confined plasmas. Particular emphasis is given to the importance of uncertainty quantification and its inclusion within the metrics, and the need for utilizing synthetic diagnostics to enable quantitatively meaningful comparisons between simulation and experiment. As a starting point, the structure of commonly used global transport model metrics and their limitations is reviewed. An alternate approach is then presented, which focuses upon comparisons of predicted local fluxes, fluctuations, and equilibrium gradients against observation. The utility of metrics based upon these comparisons is demonstrated by applying them to gyrokinetic predictions of turbulent transport in a variety of discharges performed on the DIII-D tokamak [J. L. Luxon, Nucl. Fusion 42, 614 (2002)], as part of a multi-year transport model validation activity.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Enabling probabilistic learning on manifolds through double diffusion maps

Here, we present a generative learning framework for probabilistic sampling that extends Probabilistic Learning on Manifolds (PLoM), which is designed to generate statistically consistent realizations of a random vector in a finite-dimensional Euclidean space, informed by a (representative) set of observations. In its original form, PLoM constructs a reduced-order probabilistic model by combining three main components: (a) kernel density estimation to approximate the underlying probability measure, (b) Diffusion Maps to characterize the manifold of the data, and (c) a reduced-order Itô Stochastic Differential Equation (ISDE) to sample from the learned distribution. However, its sampling dynamics are posed in the ambient space and the retained number of reduced coordinates is chosen by projection-reconstruction error. In practice, this often (i) requires more coordinates than the data’s intrinsic dimension to achieve stable sampling and (ii) lacks a smooth, basis-independent lifting back to the data domain; moreover, standard Diffusion Maps emphasize harmonic eigenfunctions and can miss non-harmonic latent structure. We address these limitations by decoupling geometry learning from sampling: a first Diffusion Maps pass identifies non-harmonic coordinates on which we formulate a full-order ISDE directly in the latent space, while Double Diffusion Maps captures multiscale geometric features and Geometric Harmonics (GH) learns a smooth lifting map to the ambient variables that is independent of the particular diffusion basis. This hybrid design preserves the system’s dynamical richness with a compact geometric representation and enables principled out-of-sample inference. The effectiveness and robustness of the proposed method are illustrated through two numerical studies: one based on data generated from two-dimensional Hermite polynomial functions and another based on high-fidelity simulations of a detonation wave in a reactive flow.

Double diffusion maps↗

Accurate calculation of many-body energies in water clusters using a classical geometry-dependent induction model

We incorporate geometry-dependent distributed multipole and polarizability surfaces into an induction model that is used to describe the 3- and 4-body terms of the interaction between water molecules. The expansion is carried out up to hexadecapole with the multipoles distributed on the atom sites. Dipole-dipole, dipole-quadrupole, and quadrupole-quadrupole distributed polarizabilities are used to represent the response of the multipoles to an electric field. We compare the model against two large databases consisting of 43,844 3-body terms and 3,603 4-body terms obtained from high level ab initio calculations previously used to fit the MB-pol and q-AQUA interaction potentials. The classical induction model with no adjustable parameters reproduces the ab-initio 3- and 4-body terms contained in these teo Databases with a Root-Mean-Square-Error (RMSE) of 0.104/0.058 and a Mean-Absolute-Error (MAE) of 0.054/0.026 kcal/mol, respectively, results that are on a par with those obtained 1 by fitting the same data using tens of thousands of Permutationally Invariant Polynomials (PIPs). This demonstrates the accuracy of this physically motivated model in describing the 3- and 4-body terms in the interactions between water molecules with no adjustable parameters. The triple-dipole-dispersion energy was included in the 3-body energy and was found to be small but not quite negligible. The model represents a practical, efficient and transferable approach for obtaining accurate non-additive interactions for multi-component systems without the need of performing tens of thousands of high level electronic structure calculations and fitting them with tens of thousands of PIPs.

molecular analysis water, aqueous↗

Unraveling the CO Oxidation Mechanism over Highly Dispersed Pt Single Atom on Anatase TiO 2 (101)

Catalysts with noble metals deposited as single atoms on metal oxide supports have recently been studied extensively due to their maximized metal utilization and potential for performing difficult chemical conversions owing to their unique electronic properties. Understanding of the reaction mechanisms on supported single-metal atoms is still limited but is highly important for designing more efficient catalysts. In this study, we report the complexity of the CO oxidation reaction mechanism on Pt single atoms supported on anatase TiO 2 (Pt SA /a-TiO 2 ) by coupling density functional theory (DFT) calculations and microkinetic analysis with kinetic measurements, in situ/operando infrared, and X-ray absorption spectroscopies. Starting from the adsorbed Pt SA occupying an O vacancy induced by reductive pretreatment, we show that CO oxidation follows a complex mechanism consisting of initiation steps to reorganize the active site and multibranch reactive cycles, with the Pt SA /a-TiO 2 catalyst not returning to its initial configuration. The initiation step consists of CO and O 2 adsorption healing the O vacancy, followed by CO oxidation using gas-phase CO to form Pt(CO). The reactive cycle alternates O 2 adsorption and dissociation to oxidize the catalyst to Pt(O)(O)(CO) and branching pathways of competing Langmuir–Hinshelwood (LH)- or Eley–Rideal (ER)-type CO oxidation steps to reduce it again to Pt(CO). In situ/operando infrared experiments, including cryogenic CO adsorption and isotopic CO exchange, confirm the combined involvement of strongly adsorbed CO and gas-phase CO in an Eley–Rideal step along the reaction cycle. Microkinetic modeling shows that Pt single atoms are present in a mixture of Pt(CO), Pt(CO)(O 2 ), Pt(O)(CO)(O 2 ), and Pt(CO)(CO 3 ) structures as the main intermediates during steady-state CO oxidation, all having the C–O vibrational stretch close to the experimentally observed value of 2115 cm –1 . Microkinetic modeling also shows that the fractional orders of CO and O 2 measured experimentally originate from multiple steps with a high degree of rate control and not from a simple competitive adsorption. The results demonstrate the complex reaction pathways that even CO oxidation on a simple single-atom system can follow, providing mechanistic insights for designing efficient Pt-based single-atom catalysts. Here, we further show that microkinetic modeling results are sensitive to changes in energies of intermediate and transition states within errors of density functional theory, which can ultimately lead to incorrect conclusions regarding the reaction pathways and most abundant reaction intermediates if not accounted for by experiments.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Graph convolutional networks applied to unstructured flow field data

Abstract Many scientific and engineering processes produce spatially unstructured data. However, most data-driven models require a feature matrix that enforces both a set number and order of features for each sample. They thus cannot be easily constructed for an unstructured dataset. Therefore, a graph based data-driven model to perform inference on fields defined on an unstructured mesh, using a graph convolutional neural network (GCNN) is presented. The ability of the method to predict global properties from spatially irregular measurements with high accuracy is demonstrated by predicting the drag force associated with laminar flow around airfoils from scattered velocity measurements. The network can infer from field samples at different resolutions, and is invariant to the order in which the measurements within each sample are presented. The GCNN method, using inductive convolutional layers and adaptive pooling, is able to predict this quantity with a validation R 2 above 0.98, and a Normalized Mean Squared Error below 0.01, without relying on spatial structure.

Ogoke, Francis (ORCID:0000000224327783)↗

Numerical discreteness errors in multispecies cosmological N -body simulations

ABSTRACT We present a detailed analysis of numerical discreteness errors in two-species, gravity-only, cosmological simulations using the density power spectrum as a diagnostic probe. In a simple set-up where both species are initialized with the same total matter transfer function, biased growth of power forms on small scales when the solver force resolution is finer than the mean interparticle separation. The artificial bias is more severe when individual density and velocity transfer functions are applied. In particular, significant large-scale offsets in power are measured between simulations with conventional offset grid initial conditions when compared against converged high-resolution results where the force resolution scale is matched to the interparticle separation. These offsets persist even when the cosmology is chosen so that the two particle species have the same mass, indicating that the error is sourced from discreteness in the total matter field as opposed to unequal particle mass. We further investigate two mitigation strategies to address discreteness errors: the frozen potential method and softened interspecies short-range forces. The former evolves particles under the approximately ‘frozen’ total matter potential in linear theory at early times, while the latter filters cross-species gravitational interactions on small scales in low-density regions. By modelling closer to the continuum limit, both mitigation strategies demonstrate considerable reductions in large-scale power spectrum offsets.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Galactoseismology and the local density of dark matter

Here, we model vertical breathing mode perturbations in the Milky Way's stellar disc and study their effects on estimates of the local dark matter density, surface density, and vertical force. Evidence for these perturbations, which involve compression and expansion of the Galactic disc perpendicular to its midplane, come from the SEGUE, RAVE, and LAMOST surveys. We show that their existence may lead to systematic errors of $10\%$ or greater in the vertical force $K_z(z)$ at $|z|=1.1\,{\rm kpc}$. These errors translate to $\gtrsim 25\%$ errors in estimates of the local dark matter density. Using different mono-abundant subpopulations as tracers offers a way out: if the inferences from all tracers in the Gaia era agree, then the dark matter determination will be robust. Disagreement in the inferences from different tracers will signal the breakdown of the unperturbed model and perhaps provide the means for determining the nature of the perturbation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗