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At least 757 records · Page 42

Cross - Scale Intercomparison of Climate Change Impacts Simulated by Regional and Global Hydrological Models in Eleven Large River Basins

Ideally, the results from models operating at different scales should agree in trend direction and magnitude of impacts under climate change. However, this implies that the sensitivity to climate variability and climate change is comparable for impact models designed for either scale. In this study, we compare hydrological changes simulated by 9 global and 9 regional hydrological models (HM) for 11 large river basins in all continents under reference and scenario conditions. The foci are on model validation runs, sensitivity of annual discharge to climate variability in the reference period, and sensitivity of the long-term average monthly seasonal dynamics to climate change. One major result is that the global models, mostly not calibrated against observations, often show a considerable bias in mean monthly discharge, whereas regional models show a better reproduction of reference conditions. However, the sensitivity of the two HM ensembles to climate variability is in general similar. The simulated climate change impacts in terms of long-term average monthly dynamics evaluated for HM ensemble medians and spreads show that the medians are to a certain extent comparable in some cases, but have distinct differences in other cases, and the spreads related to global models are mostly notably larger. Summarizing, this implies that global HMs are useful tools when looking at large-scale impacts of climate change and variability. Whenever impacts for a specific river basin or region are of interest, e.g. for complex water management applications, the regional-scale models calibrated and validated against observed discharge should be used.

Hydrological models↗

Collaborative Project: Development of an Isotope-Enabled CESM for Testing Abrupt Climate Changes

One of the most important validations for a state-of-art Earth System Model (ESM) with respect to climate changes is the simulation of the climate evolution and abrupt climate change events in the Earth’s history of the last 21,000 years. However, one great challenge for model validation is that ESMs usually do not directly simulate geochemical variables that can be compared directly with past proxy records. In this proposal, we have met this challenge by developing the simulation capability of major isotopes in a state-of-art ESM, the Community Earth System Model (CESM), enabling us to make direct model-data comparison by comparing the model directly against proxy climate records. Our isotope-enabled ESM incorporates the capability of simulating key isotopes and geotracers, notably δ 18 O, δD, δ 14 C, and δ 13 C, Nd and Pa/Th. The isotope-enabled ESM have been used to perform some simulations for the last 21000 years. The direct comparison of these simulations with proxy records has shed light on the mechanisms of important climate change events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Updates to NASA’s Break-in-Prebreathe Rules Due to Type II Decompression Sickness Risk Considerations

INTRODUCTION. Investigation of a central neurological decompression sickness (DCS) case during ground testing at Johnson Space Center identified a break-in-prebreathe (BIP) 13 minutes prior to depressurization as the leading credible cause despite applicable prebreathe payback rules being followed. Applicable NASA rules, for ground and flight, directed 2:1 payback of breaks up to 10 mins in duration, regardless of when a break occurs relative to depress. Full restart of prebreathe is directed following breaks > 10 min. The adequacy of NASA’s BIP rules was evaluated prior to resuming hypobaric ground testing or ISS extravehicular activities. METHODS. The following information sources were reviewed prior to formulating recommendations: i) Type II DCS case report and investigation findings; ii) documented rationale for existing flight rules, iii) consultations with subject matter experts involved in definition of existing flight rules (several of whom had since left NASA), iv) relevant published literature, v) model estimates of tissue on-gassing and off-gassing, and vi) NASA’s operational experience with late breaks in prebreathe. RESULTS. NASA’s nominal prebreathe protocols are validated via extensive ground testing to ensure DCS risk is reduced to within acceptable limits. Conversely, there exists a paucity of data, no validated models, and limited documentation regarding BIP risk for NASA prebreathe protocols. Flight rules implemented for shuttle and later ISS are based primarily on expert opinion and an assumption of symmetric on-gassing and off-gassing, which would make 2:1 payback a conservative mitigation for a BIP. Assumption of exponential gas kinetics makes late breaks higher risk, or require greater payback, than earlier breaks. Two BIPs have occurred using the current ISS prebreathe protocol, each of which was followed by greater than 2:1 payback and at least 59 minutes of 100% O2 pre-depress. No DCS cases have been reported during shuttle or ISS EVA operations. DISCUSSION. Interim changes were implemented to protect against late breaks during ground and flight prebreathes by ensuring negligible difference in conservatively modeled ppN2 pre-depress compared to nominal validated protocols. Additional documentation and literature review as well as chamber test planning are ongoing with the objective of further ground and flight rule updates and validation of a BIP risk model.

Prebreathe↗

Updates to NASA’s Break-in-Prebreathe Rules Due to Type II Decompression Sickness Risk Considerations

INTRODUCTION. Investigation of a central neurological decompression sickness (DCS) case during ground testing at Johnson Space Center identified a break-in-prebreathe (BIP) 13 minutes prior to depressurization as the leading credible cause despite applicable prebreathe payback rules being followed. Applicable NASA rules, for ground and flight, directed 2:1 payback of breaks up to 10 mins in duration, regardless of when a break occurs relative to depress. Full restart of prebreathe is directed following breaks > 10 min. The adequacy of NASA’s BIP rules was evaluated prior to resuming hypobaric ground testing or ISS extravehicular activities. METHODS. The following information sources were reviewed prior to formulating recommendations: i) Type II DCS case report and investigation findings; ii) documented rationale for existing flight rules, iii) consultations with subject matter experts involved in definition of existing flight rules (several of whom had since left NASA), iv) relevant published literature, v) model estimates of tissue on-gassing and off-gassing, and vi) NASA’s operational experience with late breaks in prebreathe. RESULTS. NASA’s nominal prebreathe protocols are validated via extensive ground testing to ensure DCS risk is reduced to within acceptable limits. Conversely, there exists a paucity of data, no validated models, and limited documentation regarding BIP risk for NASA prebreathe protocols. Flight rules implemented for shuttle and later ISS are based primarily on expert opinion and an assumption of symmetric on-gassing and off-gassing, which would make 2:1 payback a conservative mitigation for a BIP. Assumption of exponential gas kinetics makes late breaks higher risk, or require greater payback, than earlier breaks. Two BIPs have occurred using the current ISS prebreathe protocol, each of which was followed by greater than 2:1 payback and at least 59 minutes of 100% O2 pre-depress. No DCS cases have been reported during shuttle or ISS EVA operations. DISCUSSION. Interim changes were implemented to protect against late breaks during ground and flight prebreathes by ensuring negligible difference in conservatively modeled ppN2 pre-depress compared to nominal validated protocols. Additional documentation and literature review as well as chamber test planning are ongoing with the objective of further ground and flight rule updates and validation of a BIP risk model.

Prebreathe↗

Numerical Model Development and Validation for the WECCCOMP Control Competition

This paper details the development and validation of a numerical model of the Wavestar wave energy converter (WEC) developed in WEC-Sim. This numerical model was developed in support of the WEC Control Competition (WECCCOMP), a competition with the objective of maximizing WEC performance over costs through innovative control strategies. WECCCOMP has two stages: numerical implementation of control strategies, and experimental implementation. The work presented in this paper is for support of the numerical implementation, where contestants are provided a WEC-Sim model of the 1:20 scale Wavestar device to develop their control algorithms. This paper details the development of the numerical model in WEC-Sim and of its validation through comparison to experimental data.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Space Weather Models and Their Validation and Verification at the CCMC

The Community Coordinated l\lodeling Center (CCMC) is a US multi-agency activity with a dual mission. With equal emphasis, CCMC strives to provide science support to the international space research community through the execution of advanced space plasma simulations, and it endeavors to support the space weather needs of the CS and partners. Space weather support involves a broad spectrum, from designing robust forecasting systems and transitioning them to forecasters, to providing space weather updates and forecasts to NASA's robotic mission operators. All of these activities have to rely on validation and verification of models and their products, so users and forecasters have the means to assign confidence levels to the space weather information. In this presentation, we provide an overview of space weather models resident at CCMC, as well as of validation and verification activities undertaken at CCMC or through the use of CCMC services.

Hesse, Michael↗

An experimental and kinetic modeling study of the oxidation of hexane isomers: Developing consistent reaction rate rules for alkanes

Alkanes are key components in gasoline, jet and diesel fuels and considerably influence the combustion behavior of these fuels because of their wide range of reactivity. An improved understanding of their combustion behavior and the development of chemical kinetic models that can accurately simulate their combustion behavior are important for the development of next-generation internal-combustion and gas-turbine engines. The current work provides here improved insight into oxidation mechanisms of a representative family of hydrocarbon fuels, specifically the hexane isomers: n-hexane, 2-methylpentane, 3-methylpentane, 2,2-dimethylbutane and 2,3-dimethylbutane. These isomers provide carbon “skeletons” ranging from straight-chained to highly-branched and provide a framework for the subsequent development of kinetic mechanisms for larger alkanes. New ignition delay times for the four branched hexane isomers were measured in a high-pressure shock tube and in a rapid compression machine, both at stoichiometric conditions (φ = 1), p = 15 bar and X O2 = 21% over temperatures from 600 to1300 K. These data were combined with previously published measurements under the same conditions for the remaining n-hexane isomer to provide a complete body of experimental data for kinetic modeling analysis. In addition, very recent experimental measurements of individual intermediate chemical species concentrations from all five hexane isomers in a jet-stirred reactor are also included and provide another family of data for further assessment of hexane isomer reactivity. Different reactivities were observed for each hexane isomer in each experimental facility, resulting from differences in their molecular structures. Consistent reaction rate rules have been applied to develop a combined detailed chemical kinetic model for all five hexane isomers. Kinetic model validation studies are reported to show that the current model reproduces well the ignition delay times of all five alkane isomers, as well as their variations in reactivity over a wide range of temperatures and other operating conditions. Equally important, these results show that it is not necessary to have a separate, different kinetic model for each isomer of a family of alkane fuels and that a single, coherent, integrated set of reaction rate classes and rules is sufficient to accurately describe combustion rates of combustion of straight-chain n-alkanes and branched-chain alkane fuels. This suggests strongly that a single set of reaction classes and rate rules should be sufficient to describe combustion kinetics of alkane fuels of any size and degree of branching.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Improved internal short circuit models for thermal runaway simulations in lithium-ion batteries

Thermal runaway (TR) modeling is one of the primary tools that can be used to overcome challenges associated with lithium-ion battery (LIB) safety. Among all LIB accidents that have occurred over the past decade, Internal Short Circuit (ISC) remains the most common trigger mechanism. Many available models in the literature either use a simplified approach to simulate ISC or completely ignore its contribution. The aim of this study is to understand the nature of the heat released for different types of ISC scenarios, including aluminum-anode, anode–cathode, and copper-cathode ISC. We study ISC behavior using a coupled electrochemical–thermal model with an integrated TR chemical kinetics solver built in the COMSOL Multiphysics framework. The time duration of heat release and the magnitude of the peak ISC current are studied as functions of parameters such as the size of the penetrating filament and the capacity of the cell. The numerical results are used to build an empirical model validated against the published experimental TR propagation data. Our model can be successfully used as a viable low-cost substitute in lower order (lumped) TR simulations to enable TR prevention and mitigation.

Singh, Bakhshish Preet (ORCID:0000000264751992)↗

Effect of geometry and operational parameters on the dehumidification performance of a desiccant coated heat exchanger

Solid desiccant dehumidification systems are an alternative to vapor-compression-based air dehumidification systems. They use solid desiccant materials to adsorb air moisture in space cooling. DCHE can integrate the cooling component in the heat exchanger to achieve higher dehumidification capacity. Comprehensive numeric modeling would be necessary to assist in the design and operation of the DCHE under development to achieve maximum performance. Here, we provide the details of a heat and mass transfer model developed for this purpose. The model aims to cover a gap in existing models by independently modeling heat transfer on the solid desiccant, fin, and tube. The model results were compared with an experimental reference for validation. The air outlet humidity and temperature results for dehumidification and regeneration showed a deviation lower than 15% from the experiment. The validated model was used to perform a parametric study for a series of design and operating conditions. The parametric analysis showed that an increase of 25% in desiccant layer thickness and thermal contact resistance between solid elements reduces moisture removal by 9.1% and 1%, respectively. These results indicate the need to independently model the desiccant layer.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Isobutanol Octane Blending Model with Gasoline: Cooperative Research and Development Final Report, CRADA Number CRD-17-00689

The purpose of this agreement between the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and Gevo, under the DOE Small Business Vouchers Pilot, is to develop a predictive octane blending model for isobutanol and blendstocks for oxygenated blending (BOBs). Validated models of ethanol octane blending effects are currently used in refinery blending models. While it is known that isobutanol increases octane when blended into BOBs, the effect is non-linear, and dependent on hydrocarbon blendstock properties. Because no predictive model currently exists for isobutanol and BOBs, blenders must perform expensive and time-consuming tests to determine the octane effect on each batch of finished fuel. NREL will make basic measurements of research octane number (RON) and motor octane number (MON) of finished gasoline-isobutanol blends prepared in a broad range of BOBs. The key properties and detailed composition of BOBs utilized will be measured by NREL. Using these measured fuel properties, NREL will develop a predictive octane blending model for isobutanol in BOBs that can be used by terminals to further reduce barriers to market penetration of isobutanol.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

High-Temperature Modal Survey of a Hot-Structure Control Surface

NASA Dryden is directing a program to test a Carbon-Silicon Carbide (C/SiC) Ruddervator Subcomponent Test Article (RSTA). The RSTA is a truncated version of the full-scale X-37 hot-structure control surface incorporating all major features including the metallic spindle and five major C/SiC quasi isotropic lay-up components secured with C/SiC fasteners. As part of NASA's Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate Hypersonics program, the RSTA will undergo thermal-structural testing to develop an extensive database for future structural design and analysis methodology validation. Ground Vibration Tests (GVTs) are routinely conducted for model validation in supporting flutter analysis for subsonic and supersonic vehicles; however, for hypersonic vehicle applications, GVT techniques are not well-established. New fabrication technologies, high-temperature materials systems, and sensors offer new opportunities to develop techniques for performing GVTs at elevated temperatures. The RSTA is comprised of materials whose stiffness both increases and decreases with increasing temperature. The impact of this type of material system interaction must be understood as it will ultimately affect hypersonic flutter analysis. The test objectives are to perform room-temperature GVTs, develop the capability to conduct high-temperature GVTs and to compare and generate an understanding of the modal characteristics which capture RSTA's material interaction when subjected to temperature varying conditions.

Spivey, Natalie D.↗

Quantifying the Effect of Mixing on the Mean Age of Air in CCMVal-2 and CCMI-1 Models

The stratospheric age of air (AoA) is a useful measure of the overall capabilities of a general circulation model (GCM) to simulate stratospheric transport. Previous studies have reported a large spread in the simulation of AoA by GCMs and coupled chemistry-climate models (CCMs). Compared to observational estimates, simulated AoA is mostly too low. Here we attempt to untangle the processes that lead to the AoA differences between the models and between models and observations. AoA is influenced by both mean transport by the residual circulation and two-way mixing; we quantify the effects of these processes using data from the CCM inter-comparison projects CCMVal-2 (Chemistry-Climate Model Validation Activity 2) and CCMI-1 (Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative, phase 1). Transport along the residual circulation is measured by the residual circulation transit time (RCTT). We interpret the difference between AoA and RCTT as additional aging by mixing. Aging by mixing thus includes mixing on both the resolved and subgrid scale. We find that the spread in AoA between the models is primarily caused by differences in the effects of mixing and only to some extent by differences in residual circulation strength. These effects are quantified by the mixing efficiency, a measure of the relative increase in AoA by mixing. The mixing efficiency varies strongly between the models from 0.24 to 1.02. We show that the mixing efficiency is not only controlled by horizontal mixing, but by vertical mixing and vertical diffusion as well. Possible causes for the differences in the models' mixing efficiencies are discussed. Differences in subgrid-scale mixing (including differences in advection schemes and model resolutions) likely contribute to the differences in mixing efficiency. However, differences in the relative contribution of resolved versus parameterized wave forcing do not appear to be related to differences in mixing efficiency or AoA.

CCMI↗

Fission Product Quantification and Burnup Analysis via Gamma Spectrometry of the AGR-5/6/7 TRISO Fuel Experiment

Five capsules containing varying configurations of TRISO fuel compacts were irradiated in the most recent Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR) TRISO test campaign, AGR-5/6/7. As part of the post-irradiation examination (PIE) of this work all the fuel compacts and capsule graphite holders were measured with the Precision Gamma Scanner (PGS) to determine isotopic activities and locations using gamma spectrometry. Measuring the compacts allowed for the comparison of physics model depletion calculations with the measured compact activity to validate models. These measurements also are used to find compacts of interest with low fission product retention that may be tested in subsequent PIE. Measurements of the holders can confirm fission product distribution and migration. Of the isotopes measured, Cs-137 and Cs-134 were used to estimate location of failed particles as well as determine a measured burnup estimation. Results from Capsule 1 compacts and the holder indicate many fuel particle failures occurred. There are high amounts of cesium in the holder near Stack 9 of Capsule 1 that corresponds to low fractions?measured-to-calculated (M/C) ratio?of cesium remaining in those compacts. All other capsules had cesium retention ratios near 1. The isotope 110mAg had less consistent results. Capsule 2 compacts exhibited a M/C of 0.20, much lower than anticipated for the temperatures these compacts underwent. Capsule 3 experienced much higher temperatures, >1300C and had an average M/C of 0.75. These are the opposite results than what was predicted by past AGR experiments for the relationship between temperature and isotope retention. Capsule 4 and 5 showed good fission product retention and agreement with the physics model predictions. The burnup results from the PGS measurements showed strong agreement between the physics models and the measured values. Using a ratio of Cs-134/Cs-137 to calculate the burnup match closely with the physics models. Additionally, the Cs-137 burnup results were less accurate but extremely close to the model results.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Can MODIS Data Calibrate and Validate Coastal Sediment Transport Models? Rapid Prototyping Using 250 m Data and the ECOMSED Model for Lake Pontchartrain, LA USA

Field measurements from small boats and sparse arrays of instrumented buoys often do not provide sufficient data to capture the dynamic nature of biogeophysical parameters in may coastal aquatic environments. Several investigators have shown the MODIS 250 m images can provide daily synoptic views of suspended sediment concentration in coastal waters to determine sediment transport and fate. However, the use of MODIS for coastal environments can be limited due to a lack of cloud-free images. Sediment transport models are not constrained by sky conditions but often suffer from a lack of in situ observations for model calibration or validation. We demonstrate here the utility of MODIS 250 m to calibrate (set model parameters), validate output, and set or reset initial conditions of a hydrodynamic and sediment transport model (ECOMSED) developed for Lake Pontchartrain, LA USA. We present our approach in the context of how to quickly assess of 'prototype' an application of NASA data to support environmental managers and decision makers. The combination of daily MODIS imagery and model simulations offer a more robust monitoring and prediction system of suspended sediments than available from either system alone.

Miller, Richard L.↗

Characterizing diurnal and seasonal cycles in monsoon systems from TRMM and CEOP observations

The CEOP Inter-Monsoon Study (CIMS) is one of the two main science drivers of CEOP that aims to (a) provide better understanding of fundamental physical processes in monsoon regions around the world, and (b) demonstrate the synergy and utility of CEOP data in providing a pathway for model physics evaluation and improvement. As the data collection phase for EOP-3 and EOP-4 is being completed, two full annual cycles (2003-2004) of research-quality data sets from satellites, reference sites, and model output location time series (MOLTS) have been processed and made available for data analyses and model validation studies. This article presents preliminary results of a CIMS study aimed at the characterization and intercomparison of all major monsoon systems. The CEOP reference site data proved its value in such exercises by being a powerful tool to cross-validate the TRMM data, and to intercompare with multi-model results in ongoing work. We use 6 years (1998-2003) of pentad CEOP/TRMM data with 2deg x 2.5deg latitude-longitude grid, over the domain of interests to define the monsoon climatological diurnal and annual cycles for the East Asian Monsoon (EAM), the South Asian Monsoon (SAM), the West Africa Monsoon (WAM), the North America/Mexican Monsoon (NAM), the South American Summer Monsoon (SASM) and the Australian Monsoon (AUM). As noted, the TRMM data used in the study were cross-validated using CEOP reference site data, where applicable. Results show that the observed diurnal cycle of rain peaked around late afternoon over monsoon land, and early morning over the oceans. The diurnal cycles in models tend to peak 2-3 hours earlier than observed. The seasonal cycles of the EAM and SAM show the strongest continentality, i.e, strong control by continental processes away from the ITCZ. The WAM, and the AUM shows the less continentality, i.e, strong control by the oceanic ITCZ.

Lau, William K. M.↗

Characterizing Diurnal and Seasonal Cycles in Monsoon Systems from TRMM and CEOP Observations

The CEOP Inter-Monsoon Study (CIMS) is one of the two main science drivers of CEOP that aims to (a) provide better understanding of fundamental physical processes in monsoon regions around the world, and (b) demonstrate the synergy and utility of CEOP data in providing a pathway for model physics evaluation and improvement. As the data collection phase for EOP-3 and EOP-4 is being completed, two full annual cycles (2003-2004) of research-quality data sets from satellites, reference sites, and model output location time series (MOLTS) have been processed and made available for data analyses and model validation studies. This article presents preliminary results of a CIMS study aimed at the characterization and intercomparison of all major monsoon systems. The CEOP reference site data proved its value in such exercises by being a powerful tool to cross-validate the TRMM data, and to intercompare with multi-model results in ongoing work. We use 6 years (1998-2003) of pentad CEOP/TRMM data with 2 deg x 2.5 deg. latitude-longitude grid, over the domain of interests to define the monsoon climatological diurnal and annual cycles for the East Asian Monsoon (EAM), the South Asian Monsoon (SAM), the West Africa Monsoon (WAM), the North America/Mexican Monsoon (NAM), the South American Summer Monsoon (SASM) and the Australian Monsoon (AUM). As noted, the TRMM data used in the study were cross-validated using CEOP reference site data, where applicable. Results show that the observed diurnal cycle of rain peaked around late afternoon over monsoon land, and early morning over the oceans. The diurnal cycles in models tend to peak 2-3 hours earlier than observed. The seasonal cycles of the EAM and SAM show the strongest continentality, i.e, strong control by continental processes away from the ITCZ. The WAM, and the AUM shows the less continentality, i.e, strong control by the oceanic ITCZ.

Lau, William K. M.↗

Guidance on the Evaluation of Models for LNG fires

This report provides datasets that can be used to validate models for Liquefied Natural Gas ( LNG ) fires, specifically those used to predict the thermal hazards from various types of fires from accidents involving LNG at land-based facilities. The datasets presented include pool fires, trench fires, jet fires, fireballs, and vapor cloud fires. Recommendations are provided regarding the method of quantification and the presentation of information for reporting the comparison.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Spacecraft charging modeling development and validation study

The effects of spacecraft charging are presented. Analytical models of the magnetospheric environment are used to show the charging interaction between the spacecraft and the plasma sheath, the discharge phenomena, and electromagnetic coupling from the discharge to spacecraft components. Ground tests to validate the models are described.

Odonnell, E. E.↗