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At least 757 records · Page 42

Planning Bias: Planning as a Source of Sampling Bias

Many data-driven planning methods are trained on data generated by planners. It is well known that many statistical learning methods are sensitive to sampling bias, and yet there has been little or no attention to planning as a sampling method and its role in introducing sampling bias into planner-generated training data. Recently, it has been demonstrated that A**,* in the presence of problems with variable heuristic error, prefers some solutions over other equally cost-optimal solutions. But, as we discuss in this paper, mitigation may not be as simple as resolving arbitrary tie-breaking by sampling from ties uniformly at random. In this paper, we formalize an intuition of planning bias. We focus on problems which output a single solution. Diverse planning only complicates the problem by generalizing it to bias in the set of sets; we show how it is subject to bias in the single solution. We make some useful observations about deterministic algorithms in contrast to non-deterministic algorithms. We explain how information entropy may be a good way to measure planning bias, and discuss some issues in evaluating practical approaches to measurement. We address the intuition that uniform random tiebreaking should mitigate bias; and sketch a novel approach to constructing an appropriate random distribution for duplicate detection during forward search for unbiased A*. Finally, we suggest directions for future work.

Planning Scheduling Algorithms↗

Evolution of Scenario Generation Capabilities in the ExaSGD Project

High-fidelity renewable energy scenarios and rare-event high-impact contingencies are essential for modeling operations and infrastructure expansion of the next generation power grids using exascale computing resources. As the ExaSGD project progressed, our capabilities for generating scenarios for modeling wind power output at multiple wind farms significantly improved, evolving from the use of independent random perturbations to importance sampling-based techniques capturing representative spatial-temporal relations. Contingency generation also improved, evolving from standard N-1 techniques to probabilistic models of infrastructure damage resulting from extreme weather events. We review the developments in the realistic intermittent-energy scenario forecasting and extreme-event contingency creation as the ExaSGD project progressed and discuss the future work in these areas.

economic dispatch↗

Interactive Visualization of Multi-Group Cross Sections on High-Fidelity Spatial Meshes

Core simulation tools utilizing Monte Carlo transport methods represent the 'Holy Grail' for nuclear reactor analysis. However, deterministic transport methods pose a number of advantages to Monte Carlo from a computational perspective, which seems likely to make these methods more viable in the near to intermediate term. Deterministic methods almost universally discretize the energy domain in a few to hundreds of energy groups. One of the key challenges for deterministic transport-based methods to be viable is accurate, reactor agnostic multi-group cross section generation. This paper describes tools for data processing and visualization of multigroup cross sections generated on high-fidelity spatial meshes from the OpenMC Monte Carlo code. Next generation deterministic transport reactor core modeling tools will require multi-group cross section (MGXS) generation on high-fidelity spatial meshes. High-fidelity MGXS are necessary for the accurate simulation of neutron physics in nuclear reactors with a high degree of spectral heterogeneity - e.g., large localized neutron flux gradients throughout a reactor core. Although many local (e.g., pin cell) approximations have been developed to model the scalar flux to compute spectral-averaged MGXS, these techniques cannot account for complex intra-pin and intra-assembly spatial self-shielding effects. Monte Carlo presents the most accurate method for reactor agnostic multi-group cross section generation since it does not require the use of local approximations to the flux. Monte Carlo has been proposed as a highly desirable framework for reactor agnostic cross section generation for many years. Monte Carlo methods can effectively embed all of the relevant spectral effects into the MGXS through the random particle tracking and interaction sampling processes. Previous work has applied MCNP and Serpent to compute few-group constants for diffusion calculations, and OpenMC to compute multi-group cross sections for transport-based methods. The primary difficulty with using Monte Carlo for MGXS generation is the tremendous computational resources required to adequately converge multi-group cross sections in each spatial region and energy group. Recent development of the OpenMC Monte Carlo code for high-performance computing platforms has made multigroup cross section generation from Monte Carlo more tractable in the foreseeable future. The recent release of OpenMC v0.7.1 includes a new Python-based module for MGXS generation. The MGXS generation module leverages many of the algorithms and features for 'big data' analysis of large tally datasets on complex spatial meshes. This paper describes the data management workflow and visualization tools which have been developed to explore the plethora of MGXS data generated with OpenMC. It is the authors' hope that the development of the visualization tool described in this paper will ultimately enable the design of machine learning algorithms to accelerate the convergence rate of high-fidelity multi-group cross section generated with Monte Carlo. (authors)

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

A Comprehensive Investigation of Active Learning Strategies for Conducting Anti-Cancer Drug Screening

It is well-known that cancers of the same histology type can respond differently to a treatment. Thus, computational drug response prediction is of paramount importance for both preclinical drug screening studies and clinical treatment design. To build drug response prediction models, treatment response data need to be generated through screening experiments and used as input to train the prediction models. In this study, we investigate various active learning strategies of selecting experiments to generate response data for the purposes of (1) improving the performance of drug response prediction models built on the data and (2) identifying effective treatments. Here, we focus on constructing drug-specific response prediction models for cancer cell lines. Various approaches have been designed and applied to select cell lines for screening, including a random, greedy, uncertainty, diversity, combination of greedy and uncertainty, sampling-based hybrid, and iteration-based hybrid approach. All of these approaches are evaluated and compared using two criteria: (1) the number of identified hits that are selected experiments validated to be responsive, and (2) the performance of the response prediction model trained on the data of selected experiments. The analysis was conducted for 57 drugs and the results show a significant improvement on identifying hits using active learning approaches compared with the random and greedy sampling method. Active learning approaches also show an improvement on response prediction performance for some of the drugs and analysis runs compared with the greedy sampling method.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Image sampling, reconstruction, and the effect of sample-scene phasing

This paper is a 1-D analysis of the degradation caused by image sampling and interpolative reconstruction. The analysis includes the sample-scene phase as an explicit random parameter and provides a complete characterization of this image degradation as the sum of two terms: one term accounts for the mean effect of undersampling (aliasing) and nonideal reconstruction averaged over all sample-scene phases; the other term accounts for variations about this mean. The results of this paper have application to the design and performance analysis of image scanning, sampling, and reconstruction systems.

Park, S. K.↗

Influence of atmospherically induced random wave fronts on diffraction imagery - A computer simulation model for testing image reconstruction algorithms

This paper is devoted to the development of a two-dimensional computer-simulation model that is based on the rigid constraints of optical diffraction theory with careful attention paid to the generation of sample realizations of Gaussian-distributed, spatially random, isotropic wave fronts that have zero-mean and prescribed-covariance functions. Given a sample realization of the wave front, the corresponding centered point-spread function and optical-transfer function are evaluated. A detailed study is made of the statistics of random wave-front tilt, point-spread function, modulus squared of transfer function, and phase of transfer function.

Barakat, Richard↗

Random insights into the complexity of two-dimensional tensor network calculations

Projected entangled pair states (PEPS) offer memory-efficient representations of some quantum many-body states that obey an entanglement area law and are the basis for classical simulations of ground states in two-dimensional (2d) condensed matter systems. However, rigorous results show that exactly computing observables from a 2d PEPS state is generically a computationally hard problem. Yet approximation schemes for computing properties of 2d PEPS are regularly used, and empirically seen to succeed, for a large subclass of (“not too entangled”) condensed matter ground states. Adopting the philosophy of random matrix theory, in this work, we analyze the complexity of approximately contracting a 2d random PEPS by exploiting an analytic mapping to an effective replicated statistical mechanics model that permits a controlled analysis at a large bond dimension. Through this statistical-mechanics lens, we argue that (i) although approximately sampling wave-function amplitudes of random PEPS faces a computational-complexity phase transition above a critical bond dimension, and (ii) one can generically efficiently estimate the norm and correlation functions for any finite bond dimension. Furthermore, these results are supported numerically for various bond-dimension regimes. It is an important open question whether the above results for random PEPS apply more generally also to PEPS representing physically relevant ground states.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

An uncertainty quantification method relevant to material test reactors

Within material test reactor calculations, energy dependent flux and reaction rate uncertainties are typically not quantified when performing as-run analyses to determine the neutron field experienced by the experiment. When high fidelity Monte-Carlo codes are used in such analyses, straight forward methods to calculate output uncertainties are not available, instead expert opinion is used to postulate computational uncertainties. New methods to propagate uncertainties through these high fidelity simulations are available when sufficient computational power is available. A tool is developed here for sampling any part of an MCNP input from random distributions to determine output uncertainties based on those inputs. Another tool is developed to sample nuclear data cross-section in ACE format using multi-group nuclear data covariances. The Total Monte-Carlo Method and Gesellschaft für Anlagen-und Reaktorsicherheit method (GRS) are implemented and compared to one another as well as MCNP sensitivity and uncertainty calculations. The methods were applied to the Godiva critical sphere k-eigenvalue, the UAM pin-cell benchmark energy dependent flux and reaction rates, and the Advanced Test Reactor energy dependent flux within an experimental location. Furthermore, the two methods agree well, with GRS allowing for an order of magnitude speedup for reaction rate uncertainty calculations and several orders of magnitude for eigenvalue uncertainty calculations.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

The construction of large-scale structure catalogs for the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument

We present the technical details on how large-scale structure (LSS) catalogs are constructed from redshifts measured from spectra observed by the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI). The LSS catalogs provide the information needed to determine the relative number density of DESI tracers as a function of redshift and celestial coordinates and, e.g., determine clustering statistics. We produce catalogs that are weighted subsamples of the observed data, each matched to a weighted `random' catalog that forms an unclustered sampling of the probability density that DESI could have observed those data at each location. Precise knowledge of the DESI observing history and associated hardware performance allows for a determination of the DESI footprint and the number of times DESI has covered it at sub-arcsecond level precision. This enables the completeness of any DESI sample to be modeled at this same resolution. The pipeline developed to create LSS catalogs has been designed to easily allow robustness tests and enable future improvements. We describe how it allows ongoing work improving the match between galaxy and random catalogs, such as including further information when assigning redshifts to randoms, accounting for fluctuations in target density, accounting for variation in the redshift success rate, and accommodating blinding schemes.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

D-Guaranteed Discrimination of Statistical Hypotheses: a Review of Results and Unsolved Problems

We compare two sequential d-guaranteed tests and an optimal d-guaranteed test based on a fixed number of observations with respect to the average number of observations within the most accepted practical applications of Bayesian probabilistic models. We consider the sequential “first skipping” test, the sequential locally efficient test based on the score statistic, and the test based on a fixed number of observations that minimizes the necessary sample size. We study various characteristics of these tests connected with the number of observations within three probabilistic models, namely, the normal (ϑ, σ{sup 2}) distribution of the observed random variable and the normal a priori distribution of ϑ with fixed σ{sup 2}; the exponential distribution with the intensity parameter ϑ and the a priori gamma distribution of ϑ; and the Bernoulli sampling with the success probability ϑ and the a priori beta distribution of ϑ. We discuss the connection of the d-posterior approach with the compound decision problem as applied to the analysis of data provided by microchips (when the false discovery rate, or FDR, for short, is treated as the d-risk of the first kind). We present the vast data on characteristics of the mentioned tests obtained by the method of mathematical modeling in several tables. We discuss unsolved problems of the d-guaranteed discrimination of hypotheses with the minimal number of observations and approaches to their solution.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

General-Surrogate Adaptive Sampling Using Interquartile Range for Design Space Exploration

Abstract A surrogate model is a common tool to approximate system response at untested points for design space exploration. Adaptive sampling has been studied for improving the accuracy of surrogates iteratively by introducing additional samples (simulations and experiments). New samples are often selected based on the estimated uncertainty in the design space. While some surrogates such as kriging have readily available uncertainty models for their predictions, other surrogates do not. Consequently, there have been studies of using the process of leaving-samples-out (LSO) used in cross-validation tools to estimate prediction uncertainty, such as the universal prediction distribution (UPD). In this paper, an adaptive sampling scheme for general surrogates is proposed based on LSO, similar to cross-validation and interquartile range (IQR). Multiple submodels are first developed from LSO. The uncertainty is then estimated from the IQR of these surrogates at a given point. New samples are added iteratively at the point with maximum IQR for design space exploration. The proposed scheme is illustrated using kriging, radial basis function, and neural network surrogates. The proposed scheme is evaluated using four algebraic test functions. Multiple sets of initial samples were produced to account for randomness. For these test functions, the proposed scheme was found to be more accurate and robust than kriging with its own uncertainty model. The proposed scheme was more accurate than the UPD for three out of the four test functions. For a fixed number of samples, the IQR-based adaptive sampling also proved to be more accurate than all-at-once sampling in most cases even when the estimated uncertainty was only mildly correlated with prediction errors.

Engineering↗

Polynomial chaos representation of databases on manifolds

Characterizing the polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) of a vector-valued random variable with probability distribution concentrated on a manifold is a relevant problem in data-driven settings. The probability distribution of such random vectors is multimodal in general, leading to potentially very slow convergence of the PCE. In this paper, we build on a recent development for estimating and sampling from probabilities concentrated on a diffusion manifold. The proposed methodology constructs a PCE of the random vector together with an associated generator that samples from the target probability distribution which is estimated from data concentrated in the neighborhood of the manifold. The method is robust and remains efficient for high dimension and large datasets. The resulting polynomial chaos construction on manifolds permits the adaptation of many uncertainty quantification and statistical tools to emerging questions motivated by data-driven queries.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Theory and implementation of a very high throughput true random number generator in field programmable gate array

The contribution of this paper is proposing a new entropy extraction mechanism based on sampling phase jitter in ring oscillators to make a high throughput true random number generator in a field programmable gate array (FPGA) practical. Starting from experimental observation and analysis of the entropy source in FPGA, a multi-phase sampling method is exploited to harvest the clock jitter with a maximum entropy and fast sampling speed. This parametrized design is implemented in a Xilinx Artix-7 FPGA, where the carry chains in the FPGA are explored to realize the precise phase shifting. The generator circuit is simple and resource-saving, so that multiple generation channels can run in parallel to scale the output throughput for specific applications. The prototype integrates 64 circuit units in the FPGA to provide a total output throughput of 7.68 Gbps, which meets the requirement of current high-speed quantum key distribution systems. The randomness evaluation, as well as its robustness to ambient temperature, confirms that the new method in a purely digital fashion can provide high-speed high-quality random bit sequences for a variety of embedded applications.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Maximum a posteriori Ly α estimator (MAPLE): band power and covariance estimation of the 3D Ly α forest power spectrum

We present a novel maximum a posteriori estimator to jointly estimate band powers and the covariance of the three-dimensional power spectrum (P3D) of Ly $\alpha$ forest flux fluctuations, called MAPLE. Our Wiener-filter based algorithm reconstructs a window-deconvolved P3D in the presence of complex survey geometries typical for Ly $\alpha$ surveys that are sparsely sampled transverse to and densely sampled along the line of sight. We demonstrate our method on idealized Gaussian random fields with two selection functions: (i) a sparse sampling of 30 background sources per square degree designed to emulate the current Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument; (ii) a dense sampling of 900 background sources per square degree emulating the upcoming Prime Focus Spectrograph Galaxy Evolution Survey. Our proof-of-principle shows promise, especially since the algorithm can be extended to marginalize jointly over nuisance parameters and contaminants, i.e. offsets introduced by continuum fitting. Our code is implemented in JAX and is publicly available on GitHub.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Noise Radar Approach for Interrogating SAW Sensors Using Software Defined Radio

Passive, wireless surface acoustic wave (SAW) sensor systems can be approached from a radar perspective, where the SAW device is thought of as a cooperative target. Here, this paper investigates the use of a commercial-off-the-shelf software defined radio to interrogate wireless SAW sensors with a randomly generated interrogation pulse. The USRP B200mini is utilized as the transceiver platform with custom field-programmable gate array (FPGA) modifications to generate the random interrogation waveform and provide synchronization and buffering to the received signal. Each transmit sample bit in the FPGA is fed by an independent linear-feedback shift register, which generates pseudo-random I and Q samples for the interrogation pulse. An RF daughterboard has also been developed and integrated with the B200mini to increase the transmit power, provide filtering of the RF signals, and switch a signal antenna between the transmit and receive channels. Radio control and matched filter correlator post-processing are accomplished using Python. Design and implementation details for the FPGA modifications, RF daughterboard, and post-processing are discussed. Lastly, the system is demonstrated by wirelessly interrogating SAW temperature sensors at 915 MHz.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Self-Guided Multimedia Stress Management and Resilience Training for Flight Controllers

Stress and anxiety-related problems are among the most common and costly behavioral health problems in society, and for those working in operational environments (i.e. astronauts, flight controllers, military) this can seriously impact crew performance, safety, and wellbeing. Technology-based interventions are effective for treating behavioral health problems, and can significantly improve the delivery of evidence-based health care. This study is evaluating the effectiveness, usefulness, and usability of a self-guided multimedia stress management and resilience training program in a randomized controlled trial (RCT) with a sample of flight controllers at Johnson Space Center. The intervention, SMART-OP (Stress Management and Resilience Training for Optimal Performance), is a six-session, cognitive behavioral-based computer program that uses self-guided, interactive activities to teach skills that can help individuals build resilience and manage stress. In a prior RCT with a sample of stressed but otherwise healthy individuals, SMART-OP reduced perceived stress and increased perceived control over stress in comparison to an Attention Control (AC) group. SMART-OP was rated as "highly useful" and "excellent" in usability and acceptability. Based on α-amylase data, individuals in SMART-OP recovered quicker and more completely from a social stress test as compared to the AC group [1]. In the current study, flight controllers are randomized either to receive SMART-OP training, or to a 6-week waitlist control period (WLC) before beginning SMART-OP. Eligible participants include JSC flight controllers and instructors without any medical or psychiatric disorder, but who are stressed based on self-report. Flight controllers provide a valid analog sample to astronauts in that they work in an operational setting, use similar terminology to astronauts, are mission-focused, and work under the same broader work culture. The study began in December 2014, and to date 79 flight controllers and instructors have expressed interest in the study, 49 of those were cleared for participation, we have screened 44 for eligibility, and 23 have met inclusion criteria. Recruitment is ongoing and the study will continue until December 2016. Outcome measures include perceived stress, perceived control over stress, resilience, mood, personality, emotion regulation, sleep, health behaviors, and psychophysiological data such as 24-hour heart rate, alpha amylase, and urinary and salivary cortisol. We are also collecting user feedback such as usability, working alliance, usefulness, and treatment credibility.

Rose, R. D.↗

Using the Monte Carlo Method to Evaluate the Reliability of Screening Multifamily Housing for Radon

When screening for radon in a multifamily housing complex using a fixed sample density (e.g., testing 1 in 10 (10%) or 1 in 4 units (25%)), the statistical confidence is dependent upon the assumed elevated radon frequency. For example, testing 25% of units in a complex estimated to have eight units with elevated radon levels will provide 90% confidence. However, if it is assumed that, in the same complex, there are only three units with elevated radon levels, the confidence drops to around 58% for the same sample density. Furthermore, in the previous example, if elevated radon levels are not found during the screening, all that can be stated is that the screening provides 90% confidence that there are no more than seven units in the complex with elevated radon levels. To more fully illustrate this uncertainty, ten separate multifamily housing radon data sets with 1 to 10 units with radon levels ≥4 pCi/L (Table 1) were selected for analysis using the Monte Carlo statistical method. Unlike other mathematically based statistical approaches, the Monte Carlo statistical method relies on repeated analysis of randomly selected data. from a 100% sampled complex at various sample densities. Success for each simulation is defined as finding at least one unit with elevated radon levels. In this statistical method, confidence in the overarching conclusion can be greatly enhanced by repeating the simulated screening hundreds or even thousands of times. For this study, each of the ten data sets was simulated 1,000 times. For each simulation, the data set was randomized three times before the fixed percentage of data was selected.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

Spatial patterns in occupancy and density of larval lampreys in freshwater habitats restored to a Stage 0 condition

Abstract We examined occupancy and density of larval lampreys ( Entosphenus tridentatus and Lampetra spp.) in two rivers in Oregon (USA) restored to a Stage 0 condition 1–5 years prior, using a multiscale occupancy model and a zero‐inflated Poisson mixture model. We sampled lampreys using backpack electrofishing in randomly distributed, paired, 1‐m 2 quadrats and recorded environmental data. Probabilities of occupancy and density were higher when water velocity was low, the substrate was noncompacted, and sediment was dominated by fines (<4 mm). At mean water depth (0.34 m) and velocity (0.09 m/s), estimated densities in occupied quadrats were 4.8 lampreys/m 2 (95%: 3.4–6.9) when the substrate was compacted, and fines were not dominant, and 21.1 lampreys/m 2 (95%: 17.7–25.3) when the substrate was noncompacted and fines were dominant. Probabilities of detecting occupancy in a 1‐m 2 quadrat sampled by backpack electrofishing were 0.76 (95%: 0.64–0.87) when captured after visual observation and 0.80 (95%: 0.71–0.88) with blind sweeps (i.e., constantly moving the net regardless of observation). The probability of capturing a single lamprey in a quadrat sampled by blind sweeps was 0.32 (95%: 0.27–0.37). Sampling in paired 1‐m 2 quadrats facilitated concurrent examination of patterns in occupancy and density while accounting for capture probability, which could aid temporal monitoring of restored habitats. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to document occupancy and estimate densities of larval lampreys in habitats that underwent valley floor restoration to Stage 0. We observed both lamprey genera within 5 years of restoration. Aquatic restoration that increases low‐velocity, noncompacted, fine sediment habitats could benefit lampreys.

Harris, Julianne E.↗