Development of HelioPortal to Enable Reliable Forecasts of Solar Activity Through Data Assimilation and Machine Learning Approaches
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Joint Lead-Free Solder Test Program for High Reliability Military and Space Applications
Current and future space and defense systems face potential risks from the continued use of tin-lead solder, including: compliance with current environmental regulations, concerns about potential environmental legislation banning lead-containing products, reduced mission readiness, and component obsolescence with lead surface finishes. For example, the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) has lowered the Toxic Chemical Release reporting threshold for lead to 100 pounds. Overseas, the Waste Electrical and Electronic Equipment (WEEE) and the Restriction on Hazardous Substances (RoHS) Dicctives in Europe and similar mandates in Japan have instilled concern that a legislative body will prohibit the use of lead in aerospace/military electronics soldering. Any potential banning of lead compounds could reduce the supplier base and adversely affect the readiness of missions led by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD). Before considering lead-free electronics for system upgrades or future designs, however, it is important for the DoD and NASA to know whether lead-free solders can meet their systems' requirements. No single lead-free solder is likely to qualify for all defense and space applications. Therefore, it is important to validate alternative solders for discrete applications. As a result of the need for comprehensive test data on the reliability of lead-free solders, a partnership was formed between the DoD, NASA, and several original equipment manufactures (OEMs) to conduct solder-joint reliability (laboratory) testing of three lead-free solder alloys on newly manufactured and reworked circuit cards to generate performance data for high-reliability (IPC Class 3) applications.
Brown, Christina↗
A Contrast in Use of Metrics in Earth Science Data Systems
In recent years there has been a surge in the number of systems for processing, archiving and distributing remotely sensed data. Such systems, working independently as well as in collaboration, have been contributing greatly to the advances in the scientific understanding of the Earth system, as well as utilization of the data for nationally and internationally important applications. Among such systems, we consider those that are developed by or under the sponsorship of NASA to fulfill one of its strategic objectives: "Study Earth from space to advance scientific understanding and meet societal needs." NASA's Earth science data systems are of varying size and complexity depending on the requirements they are intended to meet. Some data systems are regarded as NASA's "Core Capabilities" that provide the basic infrastructure for processing, archiving and distributing a set of data products to a large and diverse user community in a robust and reliable manner. Other data systems constitute "Community Capabilities". These provide specialized and innovative services to data users and/or research products offering new scientific insight. Such data systems are generally supported by NASA through peer reviewed competition. Examples of Core Capabilities are 1. Earth Observing Data and Information System (EOSDIS) with its Distributed Active Archive Centers (DAACs), Science Investigator-led Processing Systems (SIPSs), and the EOS Clearing House (ECHO); 2. Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) Science Data and Information System (TSDIS); 3. Ocean Data Processing System (ODPS); and 4. CloudSat Data Processing Center. Examples of Community Capabilities are projects under the Research, Education and Applications Solutions Network (REASON), and Advancing Collaborative Connections for Earth System Science (ACCESS) Programs. In managing these data system capabilities, it is necessary to have well-established goals and to measure progress relative to them. Progress is measured through "metrics", which can be a combination of quantitative as well as qualitative assessments. The specific metrics of interest depend on the user of the metrics as well as the type of data system. The users of metrics can be data system managers, program managers, funding agency or the public. Data system managers need metrics for assessing and improving the performance of the system and for future planning. Program managers need metrics to assess progress and the value of the data systems sponsored by them. Also, there is a difference in the metrics needed for core capabilities that tend to be more complex, larger and longer-term compared to community capabilities and the community capabilities that tend to be simpler, smaller and shorter-term. Even among community capabilities there are differences; hence the same set of metrics does not apply to all. Some provide data products to users, some provide services that enable better utilization of data or interoperability among other systems, and some are a part of a larger project where provision of data or services is only a minor activity. There is also a contrast between metrics used for internal and external purposes. Examples of internal purposes are: ensuring that the system meets its requirements, and planning for evolution and growth. Examples of external purposes are: providing to sponsors indicators of success of the systems, demonstrating the contributions of the system to overall program success, etc. This paper will consider EOSDIS, REASON and ACCESS programs to show the various types of metrics needed and how they need to be tailored to the types of data systems while maintaining the overall management goals of measuring progress and contributions made by the data systems.
Ramapriyan, Hampapuram↗
Testing of the reliability of alkanes as biological indicators and development of reference data on alkanes of various origins Final report
Alkane reliability as biological indicators, and sensitive analytical methods for determining contamination
RELIABILITY↗
Reasoning Service Exemplars for NASA’s Data and Reasoning Fabric
Future operations for Urban and Advanced Air Mobility are enabled by a distributed network of reliable and secured data and reasoning services referred to here as a fabric. In the aggregate, such a system must be all encompassing and mission agnostic, but specific use-cases are still needed to improve understanding and drive design paradigms. For this purpose, three reasoning service exemplars for Target Selection and Routing, Trajectory Generation, and Battery Health Management were developed and integrated into a specific NASA proposed data and reasoning fabric. These services were then used to build a mission reasoning application for lightning strike reconnaissance developed in collaboration with the Civil Air Patrol. Autonomous mission execution was then demonstrated using a multivehicle simulation platform with a full envelope 6 Degree-of-Freedom dynamics model for a concept electric Vertical Takeoff and Landing aircraft.
Autonomy↗
INTEGRATION OF DATA ANALYTICS WITH SYSTEM HEALTH PROGRAMS
Industry equipment reliability and asset management programs are essential elements that help ensure the safe and economical operation of nuclear power plants. The effectiveness of these programs is addressed in several industry developed and regulatory programs. However, these programs have proven to be labor intensive and expensive. There is an opportunity to significantly enhance the collection, analysis, and use of this information to provide more cost-effective plant operation. Additionally, there is an acute industry need to leverage advanced technology to reduce costs and improve operational effectiveness. The goal of this paper is to provide effective and efficient analytical methods and tools to support risk-informed decisions for the equipment reliability and asset management programs at nuclear power plants. This is accomplished by creating a direct bridge between component health/lifecycle data and decision making (e.g., maintenance scheduling and project prioritization). Here we are supporting typical system engineer decisions regarding maintenance activity scheduling and component ageing management. This is performed in a risk-informed context where herein the term “risk” is broadly constructed to include both plant reliability and economics. This framework combines data analytics tools to analyze equipment reliability data with risk-informed methods designed to support system engineer decisions (e.g., maintenance and replacement schedules, optimal maintenance posture) in a customizable workflow. A challenge is that the structure of this workflow strongly depends on the decision that needs to be made, the type of data available, and the constraints that need to be considered. Current methods are designed to provide specific answers to specific problems; however, these methods might prove to be inadequate even when problem settings slightly change (e.g., different types of requirements, additional dependencies between system reliability and economics). We tackled this challenge by designing framework in a flexible and modular fashion such that the user can assemble and customize his/her own workflow that integrates SSC economic lifecycle models (e.g., maintenance and replacement costs), system reliability models, and optimization methods.
97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
PRINCE/APIC - A centralized parts and materials information center for the reliability engineer.
Centralized parts and materials reliability information center /PRINCE/APIC/, explaining data storage and retrieval
RELIABILITY↗
UAS Autonomous Hazard Mitigation through Assured Compliance with Conformance Criteria
The behavior of a drone depends on the integrity of the data it uses and the reliability of the avionics systems that process that data to affect the operation of the aircraft. Commercial unmanned aircraft systems frequently rely on commercial-off-the-shelf and open source avionics components and data sources whose reliability and integrity are not easily assured. To mitigate failure events for aircraft that do not comply with conventional aviation safety standards, operational limitations are typically prescribed by regulators. Part 107 of the Federal Aviation Regulations serves as a good example of operational limitations that mitigate risk for small unmanned aircraft systems. These limitations, however, restrict growth possibilities for the industry. Any reasonable path toward achieving routine operation of all types of drones will have to address the need for assurance of avionics systems, especially their software. This paper discusses the possibility of strategically using assured systems as a stepping stone to routine operation of drones. A specimen system for assured geofencing, called Safeguard, is described as an example of such a stepping stone.
Dill, Evan, T.↗
An approach to verification and validation of a reliable multicasting protocol: Extended Abstract
This paper describes the process of implementing a complex communications protocol that provides reliable delivery of data in multicast-capable, packet-switching telecommunication networks. The protocol, called the Reliable Multicasting Protocol (RMP), was developed incrementally using a combination of formal and informal techniques in an attempt to ensure the correctness of its implementation. Our development process involved three concurrent activities: (1) the initial construction and incremental enhancement of a formal state model of the protocol machine; (2) the initial coding and incremental enhancement of the implementation; and (3) model-based testing of iterative implementations of the protocol. These activities were carried out by two separate teams: a design team and a V&V team. The design team built the first version of RMP with limited functionality to handle only nominal requirements of data delivery. This initial version did not handle off-nominal cases such as network partitions or site failures. Meanwhile, the V&V team concurrently developed a formal model of the requirements using a variant of SCR-based state tables. Based on these requirements tables, the V&V team developed test cases to exercise the implementation. In a series of iterative steps, the design team added new functionality to the implementation while the V&V team kept the state model in fidelity with the implementation. This was done by generating test cases based on suspected errant or off-nominal behaviors predicted by the current model. If the execution of a test in the model and implementation agreed, then the test either found a potential problem or verified a required behavior. However, if the execution of a test was different in the model and implementation, then the differences helped identify inconsistencies between the model and implementation. In either case, the dialogue between both teams drove the co-evolution of the model and implementation. We have found that this interactive, iterative approach to development allows software designers to focus on delivery of nominal functionality while the V&V team can focus on analysis of off nominal cases. Testing serves as the vehicle for keeping the model and implementation in fidelity with each other. This paper describes (1) our experiences in developing our process model; and (2) three example problems found during the development of RMP. Although RMP has provided our research effort with a rich set of test cases, it also has practical applications within NASA. For example, RMP is being considered for use in the NASA EOSDIS project due to its significant performance benefits in applications that need to replicate large amounts of data to many network sites.
Callahan, John R.↗
An approach to verification and validation of a reliable multicasting protocol
This paper describes the process of implementing a complex communications protocol that provides reliable delivery of data in multicast-capable, packet-switching telecommunication networks. The protocol, called the Reliable Multicasting Protocol (RMP), was developed incrementally using a combination of formal and informal techniques in an attempt to ensure the correctness of its implementation. Our development process involved three concurrent activities: (1) the initial construction and incremental enhancement of a formal state model of the protocol machine; (2) the initial coding and incremental enhancement of the implementation; and (3) model-based testing of iterative implementations of the protocol. These activities were carried out by two separate teams: a design team and a V&V team. The design team built the first version of RMP with limited functionality to handle only nominal requirements of data delivery. In a series of iterative steps, the design team added new functionality to the implementation while the V&V team kept the state model in fidelity with the implementation. This was done by generating test cases based on suspected errant or off-nominal behaviors predicted by the current model. If the execution of a test was different between the model and implementation, then the differences helped identify inconsistencies between the model and implementation. The dialogue between both teams drove the co-evolution of the model and implementation. Testing served as the vehicle for keeping the model and implementation in fidelity with each other. This paper describes (1) our experiences in developing our process model; and (2) three example problems found during the development of RMP.
Callahan, John R.↗
An Approach to Verification and Validation of a Reliable Multicasting Protocol
This paper describes the process of implementing a complex communications protocol that provides reliable delivery of data in multicast-capable, packet-switching telecommunication networks. The protocol, called the Reliable Multicasting Protocol (RMP), was developed incrementally using a combination of formal and informal techniques in an attempt to ensure the correctness of its implementation. Our development process involved three concurrent activities: (1) the initial construction and incremental enhancement of a formal state model of the protocol machine; (2) the initial coding and incremental enhancement of the implementation; and (3) model-based testing of iterative implementations of the protocol. These activities were carried out by two separate teams: a design team and a V&V team. The design team built the first version of RMP with limited functionality to handle only nominal requirements of data delivery. In a series of iterative steps, the design team added new functionality to the implementation while the V&V team kept the state model in fidelity with the implementation. This was done by generating test cases based on suspected errant or offnominal behaviors predicted by the current model. If the execution of a test was different between the model and implementation, then the differences helped identify inconsistencies between the model and implementation. The dialogue between both teams drove the co-evolution of the model and implementation. Testing served as the vehicle for keeping the model and implementation in fidelity with each other. This paper describes (1) our experiences in developing our process model; and (2) three example problems found during the development of RMP.
Callahan, John R.↗
Extended Operation of Stirling Convertors at NASA Glenn Research Center
NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) has been supporting development of free-piston Stirling conversion technology for spaceflight electrical power generation since 1999. GRC has also been supporting the development of the Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator (ASRG) since 2006. A key element of the ASRG project is providing life, reliability, and performance data for the Advanced Stirling Convertor (ASC). The Thermal Energy Conversion branch at GRC is conducting extended operation of several free-piston Stirling convertors. The goal of this effort is to generate long-term performance data (tens of thousands of hours) on multiple units to build a life and reliability database. Currently, GRC is operating 18 convertors. This hardware set includes Technology Demonstration Convertors (TDCs) from Infinia Corporation, of which one pair (TDCs #13 and #14) has accumulated over 60,000 hr (6.8 years) of operation. Also under test are various Sunpower, Inc. convertors that were fabricated during the ASC development activity, including ASC-0, ASC-E (including those in the ASRG engineering unit), and ASC-E2. The ASC-E2s also completed, or are in progress of completing workmanship vibration testing, performance mapping, and extended operation. Two ASC-E2 units will also be used for durability testing, during which components will be stressed to levels above nominal mission usage. Extended operation data analyses from these tests are covered in this paper.
Oriti, Salvatore, M.↗
Integrating renewal process modeling with Probabilistic Physics-of-Failure: Application to Loss of Coolant Accident (LOCA) frequency estimations in nuclear power plants
Renewal process modeling is used for the failure prediction of hardware components under periodic maintenance. While most studies utilized data-driven approaches to estimate the input parameters for renewal process models, this paper initiates a line of research to integrate renewal process modeling with probabilistic models of underlying mechanisms associated with physical degradation and maintenance. At this stage of the research, the methodology integrates Markov modeling with Probabilistic Physics-of-Failure (PPoF) models of degradation, while maintenance is treated by a data-driven approach. This methodology is valuable to obtain a more accurate estimation of component reliability and availablity, especially when (i) components are highly reliable, and failure data are limited, (ii) historical data are unreliable due to changes in design, operation, and maintenance, or (iii) advanced technologies have emerged limiting operational data. The methodology explicitly incorporates the underlying spatiotemporal causes of failure into the renewal model, allowing to rank the criticality of causal factors to improve maintenance and mitigation strategies. Although the new methodology is applicable for component reliability and availability analysis in diverse industries, this report demonstrates its value for estimating frequencies of a Loss-Of-Coolant Accident (LOCA), which is an initiating event in Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) of Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs).
42 ENGINEERING↗
An Experimental Investigation of Human Performance Differences Depending on Simulator Complexity
As a different approach to collect human reliability analysis (HRA) data compared to the full-scope simulator studies, Idaho National Laboratory (INL) has attempted to collect HRA data based on Simplified Human Error Experimental Program (SHEEP), which uses a simplified simulator and student participants. To date, INL has considered the SHEEP approach using simplified simulators such as Rancor Microworld and Compact Nuclear Simulator to complement – not replace – full-scope studies as well as to mainly collect HRA data for estimating nominal/basic human error probabilities (HEPs) needed in the HRA quantification process. This study is a part of the project aiming to suggest how to support full-scope data collection studies based on SHEEP. This paper first introduces major tasks within the SHEEP framework. Then, as one of the major tasks, why and how we have planned to experimentally investigate human performance differences depending on simulator complexity are mainly introduced in this paper.
99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
Methods for multisource data analysis in remote sensing
Methods for classifying remotely sensed data from multiple data sources are considered. Special interest is in general methods for multisource classification and three such approaches are considered: Dempster-Shafer theory; fuzzy set theory; and statistical multisource analysis. To apply statistical multisource analysis successfully it is necessary to characterize the reliability of each data source. Separability measures and classification accuracy are used to measure the reliability. These reliability measures are then associated with reliability factors included in the statistical multisource analysis to multispectral scanner data where different segments of the electromagnetic spectrum are treated as different sources. A discussion is included concerning future directions for investigating reliability measures.
Benediktsson, Jon Atli↗
DEVELOPMENT AND APPLICATION OF RISK ANALYSIS TOOLKIT FOR PLANT RESOURCE OPTIMIZATION
This paper presents the development of methods and tools that are being designed to optimize plant operations (e.g., maintenance/replacement schedules and optimal maintenance postures for plant components) in a manner that is more cost effective than current approaches and makes better use of available component health and cost data. These methods include both data- and model-based optimization methods. Model-based optimization methods directly include reliability and cost models to determine an optimal plant operational strategy. We consider gradient-based and evolutionary (based on genetic algorithms) optimization methods. The second class of methods target more specific use cases (e.g., project schedule optimization) and are not based on reliability models directly, but they require specific component reliability and cost data. This class of methods is based on variants of the knapsack problem with an aim to determine an optimal project schedule that maximizes the overall NPV. This paper also presents multi-objective methods designed to identify an optimal maintenance posture based on a Pareto frontier analysis. Rather than dictating the “right” tradeoff (i.e., identify the absolute best posture), we show how it is possible to perform a trade space exploration approach (i.e., identify value and costs of several postures and let the analysis account for desired value and cost metrics). This is performed by identifying maintenance postures that maximize value (e.g., system availability) and minimize operational costs, i.e., the Pareto frontier in a value-cost trade space. For all these methods we present detailed applicative examples that show their validity from a decision-making perspective.
97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Data Imbalance, Uncertainty Quantification, and Transfer Learning in Data‐Driven Parameterizations: Lessons From the Emulation of Gravity Wave Momentum Transport in WACCM
Abstract Neural networks (NNs) are increasingly used for data‐driven subgrid‐scale parameterizations in weather and climate models. While NNs are powerful tools for learning complex non‐linear relationships from data, there are several challenges in using them for parameterizations. Three of these challenges are (a) data imbalance related to learning rare, often large‐amplitude, samples; (b) uncertainty quantification (UQ) of the predictions to provide an accuracy indicator; and (c) generalization to other climates, for example, those with different radiative forcings. Here, we examine the performance of methods for addressing these challenges using NN‐based emulators of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) physics‐based gravity wave (GW) parameterizations as a test case. WACCM has complex, state‐of‐the‐art parameterizations for orography‐, convection‐, and front‐driven GWs. Convection‐ and orography‐driven GWs have significant data imbalance due to the absence of convection or orography in most grid points. We address data imbalance using resampling and/or weighted loss functions, enabling the successful emulation of parameterizations for all three sources. We demonstrate that three UQ methods (Bayesian NNs, variational auto‐encoders, and dropouts) provide ensemble spreads that correspond to accuracy during testing, offering criteria for identifying when an NN gives inaccurate predictions. Finally, we show that the accuracy of these NNs decreases for a warmer climate (4 × CO 2 ). However, their performance is significantly improved by applying transfer learning, for example, re‐training only one layer using ∼1% new data from the warmer climate. The findings of this study offer insights for developing reliable and generalizable data‐driven parameterizations for various processes, including (but not limited to) GWs.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Distinguishing isotropic and anisotropic signals for X-ray total scattering using machine learning
Understanding structure–property relationships is essential for advancing technologies based on thin films. X-ray pair distribution function (PDF) analysis can access relevant atomic structure details spanning local-, mid- and long-range structure. While X-ray PDF has been adapted for thin films on amorphous substrates, measurements on single-crystal substrates are necessary to accurately determine structure origins for some thin film materials, especially those for which the substrate changes the accessible structure and properties. However, when measuring films on single-crystal substrates, high-intensity anisotropic Bragg spots saturate 2D detector images, overshadowing the thin films' isotropic scattering signal. This renders previous data processing methods for films on amorphous substrates unsuitable for films on single-crystal substrates. To address this measurement need, we developed IsoDAT2D, an innovative data processing approach using unsupervised machine learning algorithms. The program combines dimensionality reduction and clustering algorithms to separate thin film and single-crystal substrate X-ray scattering signals. We use SimDAT2D , a program we developed to generate simulated thin film data, to validate IsoDAT2D . Here we also use IsoDAT2D to isolate X-ray total scattering signal from a thin film on a single-crystal substrate. The resulting PDF data are compared with similar data processed using previous methods, especially substrate subtraction for single-crystal and amorphous substrates. PDF data from IsoDAT2D -identified X-ray total scattering data are significantly better than from single-crystal substrate subtraction, but not as reliable as PDF data from amorphous substrate subtraction. With IsoDAT2D , there are new opportunities to expand PDF to a wider variety of thin films, including those on single-crystal substrates, with which new structure–property relationships can be elucidated to enable fundamental understanding and technological advances.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗