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Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of PWR spent fuel observables to operational and model parameters

Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) observables - decay heat, neutron and γ-ray emission rate - to operational and model parameters have been performed. A 2D model representing a typical PWR 17x17 UO{sub 2} fuel assembly has been taken as reference. The Serpent code and ENDF/B-VII.1 evaluated nuclear data library have been used for the analyses. Relative uncertainty of decay heat, neutron and γ-ray emission rates due to Monte Carlo counting statistics, as well as the number of fuel pin radial regions required for an accurate characterization of SNF neutron emission, have been estimated. A parametric study has been carried out to investigate the impact of the homogenization to an average value of the fuel and moderator temperature, boron concentration power and burnup on the prediction of the selected observables. In addition, linear sensitivity coefficients have been calculated. (authors)

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

The sensitivity of the forest carbon budget shifts across processes along with stand development and climate change

Abstract The future trajectory of atmospheric CO 2 concentration depends on the development of the terrestrial carbon sink, which in turn is influenced by forest dynamics under changing environmental conditions. An in‐depth understanding of model sensitivities and uncertainties in non‐steady‐state conditions is necessary for reliable and robust projections of forest development and under scenarios of global warming and CO 2 enrichment. Here, we systematically assessed if a biogeochemical process‐based model (3D‐CMCC‐CNR), which embeds similarities with many other vegetation models, applied in simulating net primary productivity (NPP) and standing woody biomass (SWB), maintained a consistent sensitivity to its 55 input parameters through time, during forest ageing and structuring as well as under climate change scenarios. Overall, the model applied at three contrasting European forests showed low sensitivity to the majority of its parameters. Interestingly, model sensitivity to parameters varied through the course of >100 yr of simulations. In particular, the model showed a large responsiveness to the allometric parameters used for initialize forest carbon and nitrogen pools early in forest simulation (i.e., for NPP up to ~37%, 256 g C·m −2 ·yr −1 and for SWB up to ~90%, 65 Mg C/ha, when compared to standard simulation), with this sensitivity decreasing sharply during forest development. At medium to longer time scales, and under climate change scenarios, the model became increasingly more sensitive to additional and/or different parameters controlling biomass accumulation and autotrophic respiration (i.e., for NPP up to ~30%, 167 g C·m −2 ·yr −1 and for SWB up to ~24%, 64 Mg C/ha, when compared to standard simulation). Interestingly, model outputs were shown to be more sensitive to parameters and processes controlling stand development rather than to climate change (i.e., warming and changes in atmospheric CO 2 concentration) itself although model sensitivities were generally higher under climate change scenarios. Our results suggest the need for sensitivity and uncertainty analyses that cover multiple temporal scales along forest developmental stages to better assess the potential of future forests to act as a global terrestrial carbon sink.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Sensitivity of the MicroBooNE experiment to dark trident interactions

This note describes an ongoing search for dark tridents in the MicroBooNE detector. The dark trident interaction is a proposed interaction of sub-GeV dark matter with ordinary matter that would allow an exploration of a hidden dark sector composed of a dark scalar or fermion χ and a dark photon A'. This dark matter candidate can be produced at fixed-target neutrino beams such as the NuMI beam and travel uninterrupted to the MicroBooNE liquid argon detector. The interaction with the liquid argon occurs through the process χ + Ar → χ + Ar + A' where the dark photon promptly decays inside the detector through: A' → e + + e - . Two event selection strategies are explored, one using boosted decision trees and the other one applying a convolutional neural network. For both analyses a projected sensitivity in MicroBooNE after 2 × 10 21 protons on target is presented.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

System Advisor Model, SAM 2011.12.2: General Description

This document describes the capabilities of the U.S. Department of Energy and National Renewable Energy Laboratory's System Advisor Model (SAM), Version 2011.12.2, released on December 2, 2011. SAM is software that models the cost and performance of renewable energy systems. Project developers, policy makers, equipment manufacturers, and researchers use graphs and tables of SAM results in the process of evaluating financial, technology, and incentive options for renewable energy projects. SAM simulates the performance of solar, wind, geothermal, biomass, and conventional power systems. The financial model can represent financing structures for projects that either buy and sell electricity at retail rates (residential and commercial) or sell electricity at a price determined in a power purchase agreement (utility). Advanced analysis options facilitate parametric, sensitivity, and statistical analyses, and allow for interfacing SAM with Microsoft Excel or with other computer programs. SAM is available as a free download at http://sam.nrel.gov. Technical support and more information about the software are available on the website.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Review of LCA studies of solid waste management systems – Part II: Methodological guidance for a better practice

Highlights: • We perform a critical review of 222 LCA studies of solid waste management systems. • We analyse the past LCA practice against the ISO standard and ILCD Handbook guidance. • Malpractices exist in many methodological aspects with large variations among studies. • Many of these aspects are important for the reliability of the results. • We provide detailed recommendations to practitioners of waste management LCAs. - Abstract: Life cycle assessment (LCA) is increasingly used in waste management to identify strategies that prevent or minimise negative impacts on ecosystems, human health or natural resources. However, the quality of the provided support to decision- and policy-makers is strongly dependent on a proper conduct of the LCA. How has LCA been applied until now? Are there any inconsistencies in the past practice? To answer these questions, we draw on a critical review of 222 published LCA studies of solid waste management systems. We analyse the past practice against the ISO standard requirements and the ILCD Handbook guidelines for each major step within the goal definition, scope definition, inventory analysis, impact assessment, and interpretation phases of the methodology. Results show that malpractices exist in several aspects of the LCA with large differences across studies. Examples are a frequent neglect of the goal definition, a frequent lack of transparency and precision in the definition of the scope of the study, e.g. an unclear delimitation of the system boundaries, a truncated impact coverage, difficulties in capturing influential local specificities such as representative waste compositions into the inventory, and a frequent lack of essential sensitivity and uncertainty analyses. Many of these aspects are important for the reliability of the results. For each of them, we therefore provide detailed recommendations to practitioners of waste management LCAs.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Investigation of the Performance of D 2 O-Cooled High-Conversion Reactors for Fuel Cycle Calculations

This report presents FY13 activities for the analysis of D 2 O cooled tight-pitch High-Conversion PWRs (HCPWRs) with U-Pu and Th-U fueled cores aiming at break-even or near breeder conditions while retaining the negative void reactivity. The analyses are carried out from several aspects which could not be covered in FY12 activities. SCALE 6.1 code system is utilized, and a series of simple 3D fuel pin-cell models are developed in order to perform Monte Carlo based criticality and burnup calculations. The performance of U-Pu fueled cores with axial and internal blankets is analyzed in terms of their impact on the relative fissile Pu mass balance, initial Pu enrichment, and void coefficient. In FY12, Pu conversion performances of D 2 O-cooled HCPWRs fueled with MOX were evaluated with small sized axial/internal DU blankets (approximately 4cm of axial length) in order to ensure the negative void reactivity, which evidently limits the conversion performance of HCPWRs. In this fiscal year report, the axial sizes of DU blankets are extended up to 30 cm in order to evaluate the amount of DU necessary to reach break-even and/or breeding conditions. Several attempts are made in order to attain the milestone of the HCPWR designs (i.e., break-even condition and negative void reactivity) by modeling of HCPWRs under different conditions such as boiling of D 2 O coolant, MOX with different 235 U enrichment, and different target burnups. A similar set of analyses are performed for Th-U fueled cores. Several promising characteristics of 233 U over other fissile like 239 Pu and 235 U, most notably its higher fission neutrons per absorption in thermal and epithermal ranges combined with lower ___ in the fast range than 239 Pu allows Th-U cores to be taller than MOX ones. Such an advantage results in 4% higher relative fissile mass balance than that of U-Pu fueled cores while retaining the negative void reactivity until the target burnup of 51 GWd/t. Several other distinctions between U-Pu and Th-U fueled cores are identified by evaluating the sensitivity coefficients of keff, mass balance, and void coefficient. The effect of advanced iron alloy cladding (i.e., FeCrAl) on the performance of Pu conversion in MOX fueled cores is studied instead of using standard stainless-steel cladding. Variations in clad thickness and coolant-to-fuel volume ratio are also exercised. The use of FeCrAl instead of SS as a cladding alloy reduces the required Pu enrichment and improves the Pu conversion rate primarily due to the absence of nickel in the cladding alloy that results in the reduction of the neutron absorption. Also the difference in void coefficients between SS and FeCrAl alloys is nearly 500 pcm over the entire burnup range. The report also shows sensitivity and uncertainty analyses in order to characterize D 2 O cooled HCPWRs from different aspects. The uncertainties of integral parameters (keff and void coefficient) for selected reactor cores are evaluated at different burnup points in order to find similarities and trends respect to D 2 O-HCPWR.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Radiological Shielding Design for the Neutron Backscattering Spectrometer EMU

In this paper we present modelling and design of compact radiation shielding required for operation of the EMU instrument, located at Australia's OPAL nuclear reactor. The acceptance criteria for the shielding design were (i) safety - dose rate ≤ 3 μSv/h at external surfaces of the instrument's experimental area, (ii) floor load limit < 20 tons/m{sup 2}, (iii) low cost and (iv) for maintenance purposes 'easy access' to components of the instruments. The EMU instrument is a cold neutron backscattering spectrometer designed to measure inelastic neutron scattering. Its distinctive feature is that it has a tight elastic energy transfer resolution, of about 1 μeV. The instrument provides unique opportunities to study diffusion in complex materials, e.g. water molecules in confinement, polymers or biological molecules, particularly in the Asia-Oceania region. EMU is the first instrument located on the CG3 neutron beam line of the OPAL Neutron Guide Hall (NGH). A pre-existing evacuated neutron guide of dimensions 200 mm (height) x 50 mm (width) feeds into the shared EMU/KOOKABURRA pre-monochromator bunker shielding assembly, and its bottom cross section will be intercepted ∼200 mm further in air by the highly orientated pyrolytic graphite (HOPG) EMU pre-monochromator (take-off angles from 125.4 deg. to 148 deg.). The bunker shielding assembly for EMU also contains a beryllium filter and Focusing Guide Section D (FGD, 170 mm (height) x 50 mm (width)). To accommodate the range of take-off angles Pb cylindrical shielding blocks of radius 140 mm and 500 mm height have been designed. These blocks will be located at the section of the bunker where the neutron beam will exit towards the experimental area and they will reside on top of a hollow steel base (sides 10 mm thick), on which they move by sliding and are integrated with the tertiary shutter. The experimental area is enclosed by a concrete wall of 2.5 m height and 300 mm thickness, shared with the KOOKABURRA instrument, Gyprock Plasterboard panels with viewing windows, a wall from the Out-of-Pile Bunker and the CG3 shielding. The neutron beam enters the experimental area via the tertiary shutter, into the Focusing Guide Section C (FGC), which has an entrance guide cross-section of 158 mm (height) x 79 mm (width) and exit guide cross-section of 149 mm (height) x 85 mm (width) and is of length 816 mm. The vacuum chamber of FGC will be connected to the vacuum chamber of the Background Chopper (BC, disc of outer radius 350 mm). Focusing Guide Section B (FGB) is aligned with FGC and its vacuum shared with the BC vacuum. The FGB has an exit guide cross section of 50 mm (height) x 49 mm (width) and is of length 4046 mm, which will focus the neutron beam vertically and horizontally towards the Al window entrance (0.82 mm thickness, labelled N16) of the Scattering Tank assembly (constructed from 20 mm - 40 mm thickness stainless steel and will be under vacuum < 1 x 10{sup -3} mbar). Inside the Scattering Tank there is another section of Focusing Guide (FGA), with an exit guide cross-section of 30 mm (height) 30 mm (width) and of length 417 mm. The neutron beam exiting the FGA will be reflected by the HOPG crystal pieces of the Graphite Chopper (GC) towards the Backscattering Monochromator (BM). The reflected neutron beam will first pass through the other Al window (0.82 mm thickness, labelled N17) of the Scattering Tank and then enter into a flight tube (steel of 10 mm thickness). The BM is formed in an 1800 mm spherical radius array of Si crystal elements (0.87 mm thickness) and is oscillated by the linear motor Doppler Drive. The neutron beam will be reflected back at 180 deg. from, and focussed by the BM to reenter the Scattering Tank through the N17 Al window. It will then pass through the GC (HOPG crystals are rotated out of the way) and will reach the scattering sample of interest to the instrument end user. Also, inside the Scattering Tank there will be {sup 3}He linear position-sensitive detectors, and Analyser Arrays formed in an 1800 mm radius spherical arrays of Si crystal elements (0.87 mm thickness) glued on aluminium support frames (10 mm thickness) and span ∼160 deg. arc.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Machine Learning Predictions of a Multiresolution Climate Model Ensemble

Statistical models of high-resolution climate models are useful for many purposes, including sensitivity and uncertainty analyses, but building them can be computationally prohibitive. We generated a unique multiresolution perturbed parameter ensemble of a global climate model. We use a novel application of a machine learning technique known as random forests to train a statistical model on the ensemble to make high-resolution model predictions of two important quantities: global mean top-of-atmosphere energy flux and precipitation. The random forests leverage cheaper low-resolution simulations, greatly reducing the number of high-resolution simulations required to train the statistical model. We demonstrate that high-resolution predictions of these quantities can be obtained by training on an ensemble that includes only a small number of high-resolution simulations. Finally, we also find that global annually averaged precipitation is more sensitive to resolution changes than to any of the model parameters considered.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Wing-section optimization for supersonic viscous flows

The recent interest in High Speed Civil Transport (HSCT) has resulted in renewed research studies of optimized supersonic cruise transport configurations. Incorporation of flow viscosity effects in the design process of such a supersonic wing is currently under investigation. This may lead to more accurate problem formulations and, in turn, greater aerodynamic efficiency than can be obtained by the traditional, inviscid, linear theories. In this context, for a design code to be a candidate for a complex optimization problem, such as three-dimensional viscous supersonic wing design, it should be validated using simpler building-block shapes. To optimize the shape of a supersonic wing, an automated method that also includes higher fidelity to the flow physics is desirable. With this impetus, an aerodynamic optimization methodology incorporating Navier-Stokes equations and sensitivity analysis had been previously developed. Prior to embarking upon the wing design task, the present investigation concentrated on testing the flexibility of the methodology, and the identification of adequate problem formulations, by defining two-dimensional, cost-effective test cases. Starting with two distinctly different initial airfoils, two independent shape optimizations resulted in shapes with very similar features. Secondly, the normal section to the subsonic portion of the leading edge, which had a high normal angle-of-attack, was considered. The optimization resulted in a shape with twist and camber, which eliminated the adverse pressure gradient, hence, exploiting the leading-edge thrust. The wing section shapes obtained in all the test cases had the features predicted by previous studies. Therefore, it was concluded that the flowfield analyses and the sensitivity coefficients were computed and fed to the present gradient-based optimizer correctly. Also, as a result of the present two-dimensional study, suggestions were made for problem formulations which should contribute to an effective wing shape optimization.

Item, Cem C.↗

Microreactor Assembly Transportation Cask Model Description for Criticality Safety Validation Basis Assessment

Criticality safety analyses are completed on a transportation cask used for microreactor assembly shipment to provide an example of model and analysis to industry for reproducing this type of study on their microreactor fuel shipment. The fuel assembly considered is based on a gas-cooled microreactor (GC-MR), which utilizes HALEU fuel in the form of TRISO particles and utilizes various design options considered in industry designs. Various versions of this GC-MR assembly were studied, with and without YH2 moderator, providing similar conclusions. The shipment cask design is revised based on an existing design ES-3100, developed by Y-12 for the transport of highly enriched uranium (HEU), but is enlarged to hold the GC-MR fuel assembly. Criticality safety analysis for the cask/GC-MR fuel assembly package was performed using the CSAS6 sequence of SCALE6.3.2, utilizing the ENDF/B-VII.1 based continuous energy neutron library, and the analysis strictly follows the guideline from NRC reference reports. Different scenarios, e.g. normal operation, undamaged cask with water flooded, damaged cask with optimal water moderation, have been analyzed and it could be concluded the package would always have a large margin of subcriticality even packed in an infinite array. Sensitivity and similarity analyses are also performed using the TSUNAMI sequence of SCALE6.3.2, and the similarity analysis uses all the experiments from the ICSBEP Handbook with Intermediate and Mixed Enriched Uranium (IEU) and Low Enriched Uranium (LEU) systems together with additional ones that are sponsored by the DNCSH program. These similarity analyses indicate that dry cases have no similar benchmark experiments (ck values greater than 0.8), which may become problematic if more assemblies are shipped together (or a fully loaded core is shipped) and margin to criticality is reduced. However, the damaged cask models with flooded assemblies exhibited similarities to many experiments with ck values greater than 0.8.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Microreactor Assembly Transportation Cask Model Description for Criticality Safety Validation Basis Assessment (Rev. 3)

Criticality safety analyses are completed on a transportation cask used for microreactor assembly shipment to provide an example of model and analysis to industry for reproducing this type of study on their microreactor fuel shipment. The fuel assembly considered is based on a gas-cooled microreactor (GC-MR), which utilizes HALEU fuel in the form of TRISO particles and utilizes various design options considered in industry designs. Various versions of this GC-MR assembly were studied, with and without YH 2 moderator, providing similar conclusions. The shipment cask design is revised based on an existing ES-3100 design, developed by Y-12 for the transport of highly enriched uranium (HEU), but is enlarged to hold the GC-MR fuel assembly. Criticality safety analysis for the cask/GC-MR fuel assembly package was performed using the CSAS6 sequence of SCALE6.3.2, utilizing the ENDF/B-VII.1 based continuous energy neutron library, and the analysis strictly follows the guideline from NRC reference reports. Different scenarios, e.g. normal operation, undamaged cask with water flooded, damaged cask with optimal water moderation, have been analyzed and it could be concluded the package would always have a large margin of subcriticality even packed in an infinite array. Sensitivity and similarity analyses are also performed using the TSUNAMI sequence of SCALE6.3.2, and the similarity analysis uses all the experiments from the ICSBEP Handbook with Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU), Intermediate and Mixed Enriched Uranium (IEU) and Low Enriched Uranium (LEU) systems, together with additional ones that are sponsored by the DNCSH program, and selected IRPhEP experiments using TRISO fuel and graphite moderator. These similarity analyses indicate that the dry nominal design has no similar benchmark experiments (ck values greater than 0.8), which may become problematic if more assemblies are shipped together (or a fully loaded core is shipped) and margin to criticality is reduced. However, the cask models with flooded assemblies exhibited similarities to many experiments with c k values greater than 0.8.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Analyses of Scenarios for Past and Possible Future Aircraft Emissions

This project contains several components to work with the NASA AEAP program in better definition of scenarios for aircraft emissions and in determining the sensitivity of the atmosphere to such emissions. Under this project, Don Wuebbles continues as chair of the Operations and Emissions Scenarios Committee for AEAP. We are also coordinating with the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) to ensure the highest quality possible in the emissions scenarios promoted by the Emissions Scenarios committee. We continue to help coordination of NASA AEAP with international activities. This includes work with ICAO towards international analysis of aircraft emissions inventories; performing analyses to compare and evaluate databases of aircraft emissions developed for NASA and by various international groups and from these analyses, develop guidelines for future emissions scenarios development. Special sensitivity analyses, using our two-dimensional chemical-transport model of the global troposphere and stratosphere, have been used to determine potential sensitivity of further enhancements that could be made to emissions scenarios development. The latter studies are to be used in prioritizing further emissions scenario development.

Wuebbles, Donald J.↗

Markov Model of Accident Progression at Fukushima Daiichi

On March 11, 2011, a magnitude 9.0 earthquake followed by a tsunami caused loss of offsite power and disabled the emergency diesel generators, leading to a prolonged station blackout at the Fukushima Daiichi site. After successful reactor trip for all operating reactors, the inability to remove decay heat over an extended period led to boil-off of the water inventory and fuel uncovery in Units 1-3. A significant amount of metal-water reaction occurred, as evidenced by the quantities of hydrogen generated that led to hydrogen explosions in the auxiliary buildings of the Units 1 & 3, and in the de-fuelled Unit 4. Although it was assumed that extensive fuel damage, including fuel melting, slumping, and relocation was likely to have occurred in the core of the affected reactors, the status of the fuel, vessel, and drywell was uncertain. To understand the possible evolution of the accident conditions at Fukushima Daiichi, a Markov model of the likely state of one of the reactors was constructed and executed under different assumptions regarding system performance and reliability. The Markov approach was selected for several reasons: It is a probabilistic model that provides flexibility in scenario construction and incorporates time dependence of different model states. It also readily allows for sensitivity and uncertainty analyses of different failure and repair rates of cooling systems. While the analysis was motivated by a need to gain insight on the course of events for the damaged units at Fukushima Daiichi, the work reported here provides a more general analytical basis for studying and evaluating severe accident evolution over extended periods of time. This work was performed at the request of the U.S. Department of Energy to explore 'what-if' scenarios in the immediate aftermath of the accidents.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Inhomogeneous Forcing and Transient Climate Sensitivity

Understanding climate sensitivity is critical to projecting climate change in response to a given forcing scenario. Recent analyses have suggested that transient climate sensitivity is at the low end of the present model range taking into account the reduced warming rates during the past 10-15 years during which forcing has increased markedly. In contrast, comparisons of modelled feedback processes with observations indicate that the most realistic models have higher sensitivities. Here I analyse results from recent climate modelling intercomparison projects to demonstrate that transient climate sensitivity to historical aerosols and ozone is substantially greater than the transient climate sensitivity to CO2. This enhanced sensitivity is primarily caused by more of the forcing being located at Northern Hemisphere middle to high latitudes where it triggers more rapid land responses and stronger feedbacks. I find that accounting for this enhancement largely reconciles the two sets of results, and I conclude that the lowest end of the range of transient climate response to CO2 in present models and assessments (less than 1.3 C) is very unlikely.

sensitivity↗

LANL Activities: FY12-Q2 National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP): Industrial Carbon Capture Program (Quarterly Report)

This report summarizes progress of LANL activities related to the tasks performed under the LANL FWP FE102-002-FY10, National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP): Industrial Carbon Capture Program. This FWP is funded through the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA). Overall, the NRAP activities are focused on understanding and evaluating risks associated with large-scale injection and long-term storage of CO 2 in deep geological formations. One of the primary risks during large-scale injection is due to changes in geomechanical stresses to the storage reservoir, to the caprock/seals and to the wellbores. These changes may have the potential to cause CO 2 and brine leakage and geochemical impacts to the groundwater systems. While the importance of these stresses is well recognized, there have been relatively few quantitative studies (laboratory, field or theoretical) of geomechanical processes in sequestration systems. In addition, there are no integrated studies that allow evaluation of risks to groundwater quality in the context of CO 2 injection-induced stresses. The work performed under this project is focused on better understanding these effects. LANL approach will develop laboratory and computational tools to understand the impact of CO 2 -induced mechanical stress by creating a geomechanical test bed using inputs from laboratory experiments, field data, and conceptual approaches. The Geomechanical Test Bed will be used for conducting sensitivity and scenario analyses of the impacts of CO 2 injection. The specific types of questions will relate to fault stimulation and fracture inducing stress on caprock, changes in wellbore leakage due to evolution of stress in the reservoir and caprock, and the potential for induced seismicity. In addition, the Geomechanical Test Bed will be used to investigate the coupling of stress-induced leakage pathways with impacts on groundwater quality. LANL activities are performed under two tasks: (1) develop laboratory and computational tools to understand CO 2 -induced mechanical impacts and (2) use natural analog sites to determine potential groundwater impacts. We are using the Springerville-St. John Dome as a field site for collecting field data on CO 2 migration through faults and groundwater impacts as well as developing and validating computational models. During the FY12 second quarter we have been working with New England Research Company to construct a tri-axial core-holder. We have built fluid control system for the coreflood system that can be ported to perform in-situ imaging of core. We have performed numerical simulations for groundwater impacts of CO 2 and brine leakage using the reservoir model for Springerville-St John's Dome site. We have analyzed groundwater samples collected from Springerville site for major ion chemistry and isotopic composition. We are currently analyzing subsurface core and chip samples acquired for mineralogical composition.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Carbon flux estimates are sensitive to data source: a comparison of field and lab temperature sensitivity data

Abstract A large literature exists on mechanisms driving soil production of the greenhouse gases CO 2 and CH 4 . Although it is common knowledge that measurements obtained through field studies vs. laboratory incubations can diverge because of the vastly different conditions of these environments, few studies have systematically examined these patterns. These data are used to parameterize and benchmark ecosystem- to global-scale models, which are then susceptible to the biases of the source data. Here, we examine how greenhouse gas measurements may be influenced by whether the measurement/incubation was conducted in the field vs. laboratory, focusing on CO 2 and CH 4 measurements. We use Q 10 of greenhouse gas flux (temperature sensitivity) for our analyses because this metric is commonly used in biological and Earth system sciences and is an important parameter in many modeling frameworks. We predicted that laboratory measurements would be less variable, but also less representative of true field conditions. However, there was greater variability in the Q 10 values calculated from lab-based measurements of CO 2 fluxes, because lab experiments explore extremes rarely seen in situ , and reflect the physical and chemical disturbances occurring during sampling, transport, and incubation. Overall, respiration Q 10 values were significantly greater in laboratory incubations (mean = 4.19) than field measurements (mean = 3.05), with strong influences of incubation temperature and climate region/biome. However, this was in part because field measurements typically represent total respiration (Rs), whereas lab incubations typically represent heterotrophic respiration (Rh), making direct comparisons difficult to interpret. Focusing only on Rh-derived Q 10 , these values showed almost identical distributions across laboratory ( n = 1110) and field ( n = 581) experiments, providing strong support for using the former as an experimental proxy for the latter, although we caution that geographic biases in the extant data make this conclusion tentative. Due to a smaller sample size of CH 4 Q 10 data, we were unable to perform a comparable robust analysis, but we expect similar interactions with soil temperature, moisture, and environmental/climatic variables. Our results here suggest the need for more concerted efforts to document and standardize these data, including sample and site metadata.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Data for: Patel et al. Carbon flux estimates are sensitive to data source: A comparison of field and lab temperature sensitivity data

This dataset contains data and code used for the paper "Carbon flux estimates are sensitive to data source: A comparison of field and lab temperature sensitivity data" [DOI COMING SOON]A large literature exists on mechanisms driving soil production of the greenhouse gases CO2 and CH4. Measurements of these gases’ fluxes are often performed using closed-chamber incubations in the laboratory or in situ, i.e., in the field. Although it is common knowledge that measurements obtained through field studies vs. laboratory incubations can diverge because of the vastly different conditions of these environments, few studies have systematically examined these patterns. It is crucial to understand the magnitude and reasons for any differences, as these data are used to parametrize and benchmark ecosystem- to global-scale models, which are then susceptible to the biases of the source data. Here, we specifically examine how greenhouse gas measurements may be influenced by whether the measurement/incubation was conducted in the field vs. laboratory, focusing on CO2 and CH4 measurements. We use Q10 of greenhouse gas flux (temperature sensitivity) for our analyses, because of the ubiquity of this metric in biological and Earth system sciences and its importance to many modeling frameworks. We predicted that laboratory measurements would be less variable, but also less representative of true field conditions. However, there was greater variability in the Q10 values calculated from lab-based measurements of CO2 fluxes, because lab experiments explore extremes rarely seen in situ, and reflect the physical and chemical disturbances occurring during sampling, transport, and incubation. Overall, respiration Q10 values were significantly greater in laboratory incubations (mean = 4.19) than field measurements (mean = 3.05), with strong influences of incubation temperature and climate region/biome. However, this was in part because field measurements typically represent total respiration (Rs), whereas lab incubations typically represent heterotrophic respiration (Rh), making direct comparisons difficult to interpret. Focusing only on Rh-derived Q10, these values showed almost identical distributions across laboratory (n = 1110) and field (n = 581) experiments, providing strong support for using the former as an experimental proxy for the latter, although we caution that geographic biases in the extant data make this conclusion tentative. Due to a smaller sample size of CH4 Q10 data, we were unable to perform a comparable robust analysis, but we expect similar interactions with soil temperature, moisture, and environmental/climatic variables. Our results here suggest the need for more concerted efforts to document and standardize these data, including sample and site metadata. This dataset contains a compressed (.zip) archive of the data and R scripts used for this manuscript. The dataset includes files in .csv format, which can be accessed and processed using MS Excel or R. This archive can also be accessed on GitHub at https://github.com/kaizadp/field_lab_q10 (DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.7106554).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Enlarging the scope of resonant di-Higgs searches: hunting for Higgs-to-Higgs cascades in 4b final states at the LHC and future colliders

We extend the coverage of resonant di-Higgs searches in the $b\bar{b}b\bar{b}$ final state to the process $pp → H_1 → H_2H_2 → b\bar{b}b\bar{b}$, where both $H_{1,2}$ are spin-0 states beyond the Standard Model. Such a process constitutes a joint discovery mode for the new states $H_1$ and $H_2$. We present the first sensitivity study of this channel, using public LHC data to validate our analysis. We also provide a first estimate of the sensitivity of the search for the HL-LHC and future facilities like the HE-LHC and FCC-hh. We analyze the discovery potential of this search for several non-minimal scalar sector scenarios: an extension of the SM with two extra singlet scalar fields, the two-Higgs-doublet model and a two-Higgs doublet model plus a singlet, which captures the scalar potential features of the NMSSM. We find that this channel represents a novel, very powerful probe for extended Higgs sectors, offering complementary sensitivity to existing analyses.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗