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NASA NTRS1981

PKS 2155-304 relativistically beamed synchrotron radiation from BL LAC object

The newly discovered BL Lacertae object, PKS 2155-304, was observed with the medium and high intensity energy detectors of the HEAO-1 A2 experiment. The variability by a factor of two in less than a day reported by Snyder, et al (1979) is confirmed. Two spectra, obtained a year apart, while the satellite was in scanning mode, are well fit by simple power laws with energy spectral index alpha sub 1 equals approximately 1.4. A third spectrum, of higher statistical quality, obtained while the satellite was pointed at its source, has has two components. An acceptable fit was obtained using a two power law model, with indices alpha sub 1 equals 2.0 (+1.2, -0.6) and alpha sub 2 equals -1.5 (+1.5, -2.3). An interpretation of the overall spectrum from radio through X-rays in terms of a synchrotron self-Compton model gives a good description of the data if allowance is made for relativistic beaming. Thus, from a consideration of the spectrum, combined with an estimate of the size of the source, the presence of jets is inferred without their observation.

Urry, C. M.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Automated Monitoring with a BCP Fault-Decision Test

The Bayesian conditional probability (BCP) technique is a statistical fault-decision technique that is suitable as the mathematical basis of the fault-manager module in the automated-monitoring system and method described in the immediately preceding article. Within the automated-monitoring system, the fault-manager module operates in conjunction with the fault-detector module, which can be based on any one of several fault-detection techniques; examples include a threshold-limit-comparison technique or the BSP or SPRT technique mentioned in the preceding article. The present BCP technique is used to evaluate a series of one or more fault-detection events for the purpose of filtering out occasional false alarms produced by many types of statistical fault-detection procedures. The BCP technique increases the probability that an automated monitoring system produces a correct decision regarding the presence or absence of a fault. Because occasional false alarms are an inevitable consequence of the SPRT, BSP, or any other statistically based fault-detection test, there is a need for a logical procedure to distinguish between true and false alarms. Heretofore, it has been common practice to make a fault decision on an ad hoc basis for example by following a multiple-observation voting strategy in which a signal is declared to be indicative of a fault if m of the last n observations produced a fault-detection alarm. The BCP technique was developed to obtain results more reliable than those afforded by a voting strategy. The BCP technique involves a test in which one applies Bayesian inference techniques to a series of one or more single-observation alarms produced by a fault-detection test. One considers the last n decisions generated by a fault-detection test in order to evaluate the conditional probability that a failure is indicated (see figure). Each new decision reached by a fault-detection test is treated as a new piece of evidence about the state of the monitored asset, and the conditional probability of failure for the system is updated on the basis of this new evidence. The conditional probability of failure is compared with a predefined limit. For a probability below the limit, the asset is declared to be healthy. For a probability above the limit, the asset is declared to be faulty.

Bickford, Randall L.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Hierarchical Inference of the Lensing Convergence from Photometric Catalogs with Bayesian Graph Neural Networks

Abstract We present a Bayesian graph neural network (BGNN) that can estimate the weak lensing convergence ( κ ) from photometric measurements of galaxies along a given line of sight (LOS). The method is of particular interest in strong gravitational time-delay cosmography (TDC), where characterizing the “external convergence” ( κ ext ) from the lens environment and LOS is necessary for precise Hubble constant ( H 0 ) inference. Starting from a large-scale simulation with a κ resolution of ∼1′, we introduce fluctuations on galaxy–galaxy lensing scales of ∼1″ and extract random sight lines to train our BGNN. We then evaluate the model on test sets with varying degrees of overlap with the training distribution. For each test set of 1000 sight lines, the BGNN infers the individual κ posteriors, which we combine in a hierarchical Bayesian model to yield constraints on the hyperparameters governing the population. For a test field well sampled by the training set, the BGNN recovers the population mean of κ precisely and without bias (within the 2 σ credible interval), resulting in a contribution to the H 0 error budget well under 1%. In the tails of the training set with sparse samples, the BGNN, which can ingest all available information about each sight line, extracts a stronger κ signal compared to a simplified version of the traditional method based on matching galaxy number counts, which is limited by sample variance. Our hierarchical inference pipeline using BGNNs promises to improve the κ ext characterization for precision TDC. The code is available as a public Python package, Node to Joy ⏬ .

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Probing the neutron-proton asymmetry dependence of the nuclear source temperature with light charged particles

The dependence of the nuclear temperature on the source neutron-proton (N/Z) asymmetry was experimentally investigated with the light charged particles (LCPs) generated from thirteen reaction systems with different N/Z asymmetries, 64 Zn on 112 Sn and 70 Zn, 64 Ni on 112,124 Sn, 58,64 Ni, 197 Au, 232 Th at 40 MeV/u. A rather weak N/Z asymmetry dependence of the source temperature was qualitatively inferred from the extracted N/Z asymmetry dependence of the apparent temperature and that of the relative temperature change by the sequential decay effects with the help of the theoretical simulations. Comparing the present result with those from our previous work and other available experimental results, a weak N/Z asymmetry dependence of nuclear temperature is commonly observed in different independent experiments and with different thermometers, except for the result reported by McIntosh et al. [Phys. Lett. B 719, 337 (2013)]. Here, the origin of the difference between the conclusion of the former group and that of McIntosh et al. was addressed, using statistical multifragmentation model (SMM) simulations.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1999

The Second Most Distant Cluster of Galaxies in the Extended Medium Sensitivity Survey

We report on our ASCA, Keck, and ROSAT observations of MS 1137.5+6625, the second most distant cluster of galaxies in the Einstein Extended Medium Sensitivity Survey (EMSS), at redshift 0.78. We now have a full set of X-ray temperatures, optical velocity dispersions, and X-ray images for a complete, high-redshift sample of clusters of galaxies drawn from the EMSS. Our ASCA observations of MS 1137.5 +6625 yield a temperature of 5.7 (+2.1)(-1.1) keV and a metallicity of 0.43 (+40)(-3.7) solar, with 90% confidence limits. Keck II spectroscopy of 22 cluster members reveals a velocity dispersion of 884 (+185)(-124) km 24/s. This cluster is the most distant in the sample with a detected iron line. We also derive a mean abundance at z = 0.8 by simultaneously fitting X-ray data for the two z = 0.8 clusters, and obtain an abundance of Z(sub Fe) = 0.33 (+.26)(-.23). Our ROSAT observations show that MS 1137.5+6625 is regular and highly centrally concentrated. Fitting of a Beta model to the X-ray surface brightness yields a core radius of only 71/h kpc (q(sub o) = 0.1) with Beta = 0.70(+.45)(-.15) The gas mass interior to 0.5/h Mpc is thus 1.2 (+0.2)(-0.3) X 10(exp 13) h(exp - 5/2) Solar Mass (q(sub o) = 0.1). If the cluster's gas is nearly isothermal and in hydrostatic equilibrium with the cluster potential, the total mass of the cluster within this same region is 2.1(+1.5)(-0.8) X 10exp 14)/h Solar Mass, giving a gas fraction of 0.06 +/-0.04 h (exp -3/2). This cluster is the highest redshift EMSS cluster showing evidence for a possible cooling flow (about 20-400 Solar Mass/yr). The velocity dispersion, temperature, gas fraction, and iron abundance of MS 1137.5+6625 are all statistically the same as those properties in lower red- shift clusters of similar luminosity. With this cluster's temperature now in hand, we derive a high-redshift temperature function for EMSS clusters at 0.5 < z < 0.9 and compare it with temperature functions at lower redshifts, showing that the evolution of the temperature function is relatively modest. Supplementing our high-redshift sample with other data from the literature, we demonstrate that neither the cluster luminosity-temperature relation, nor cluster metallicities, nor the cluster gas evolved with redshift. The very modest degree of evolution in the luminosity-temperature relation inferred from these data is inconsistent with the absence of evolution in the X-ray luminosity functions derived from ROSAT cluster surveys if a critical density structure formation model is assumed.

Donahue, Megan↗

NASA NTRS2012

Adaptive Sampling of Time Series During Remote Exploration

This work deals with the challenge of online adaptive data collection in a time series. A remote sensor or explorer agent adapts its rate of data collection in order to track anomalous events while obeying constraints on time and power. This problem is challenging because the agent has limited visibility (all its datapoints lie in the past) and limited control (it can only decide when to collect its next datapoint). This problem is treated from an information-theoretic perspective, fitting a probabilistic model to collected data and optimizing the future sampling strategy to maximize information gain. The performance characteristics of stationary and nonstationary Gaussian process models are compared. Self-throttling sensors could benefit environmental sensor networks and monitoring as well as robotic exploration. Explorer agents can improve performance by adjusting their data collection rate, preserving scarce power or bandwidth resources during uninteresting times while fully covering anomalous events of interest. For example, a remote earthquake sensor could conserve power by limiting its measurements during normal conditions and increasing its cadence during rare earthquake events. A similar capability could improve sensor platforms traversing a fixed trajectory, such as an exploration rover transect or a deep space flyby. These agents can adapt observation times to improve sample coverage during moments of rapid change. An adaptive sampling approach couples sensor autonomy, instrument interpretation, and sampling. The challenge is addressed as an active learning problem, which already has extensive theoretical treatment in the statistics and machine learning literature. A statistical Gaussian process (GP) model is employed to guide sample decisions that maximize information gain. Nonsta tion - ary (e.g., time-varying) covariance relationships permit the system to represent and track local anomalies, in contrast with current GP approaches. Most common GP models are stationary, e.g., the covariance relationships are time-invariant. In such cases, information gain is independent of previously collected data, and the optimal solution can always be computed in advance. Information-optimal sampling of a stationary GP time series thus reduces to even spacing, and such models are not appropriate for tracking localized anomalies. Additionally, GP model inference can be computationally expensive.

Thompson, David R.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Comparing Two Approaches for Assessing Observation Impact

Langland and Baker introduced an approach to assess the impact of observations on the forecasts. In that approach, a state-space aspect of the forecast is defined and a procedure is derived ultimately relating changes in the aspect with changes in the observing system. Some features of the state-space approach are to be noted: the typical choice of forecast aspect is rather subjective and leads to incomplete assessment of the observing system, it requires availability of a verification state that is in practice correlated with the forecast, and it involves the adjoint operator of the entire data assimilation system and is thus constrained by the validity of this operator. This article revisits the topic of observation impacts from the perspective of estimation theory. An observation-space metric is used to allow inferring observation impact on the forecasts without the limitations just mentioned. Using differences of observation-minus-forecast residuals obtained from consecutive forecasts leads to the following advantages: (i) it suggests a rather natural choice of forecast aspect that directly links to the data assimilation procedure, (ii) it avoids introducing undesirable correlations in the forecast aspect since verification is done against the observations, and (iii) it does not involve linearization and use of adjoints. The observation-space approach has the additional advantage of being nearly cost free and very simple to implement. In its simplest form it reduces to evaluating the statistics of observationminus- background and observation-minus-analysis residuals with traditional methods. Illustrations comparing the approaches are given using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System.

Variational Analysis↗

DOE OSTI2023

Arctic Mixed-Phase Cloud Base Ice Precipitation Properties During the M-PACE Field Campaign

Cloud-climate feedbacks are still the greatest source of uncertainty in current climate projections. Arctic clouds, which are predominantly stratiform and supercooled, often long-lived, and nearly-continuously precipitate ice particles, contribute roughly 10% of the uncertainty attributed to the global cloud feedback. This Arctic cloud uncertainty is driven by incomplete observational and theoretical knowledge required to estimate and explain the state and active processes occurring in those clouds. A focus on ice precipitation properties at Arctic cloud base rather than the surface deconfounds the product of cloud condensate sink processes from the influence of the atmospheric thermodynamic state below cloud base, rendering cloud-base properties a more appealing target for inference and evaluation of model simulations. This dataset provides a set of 25 samples from the M-PACE field campaign, all of which were retrieved using the synthesis of ARM radar and lidar measurements. The retrieved ice precipitation variables in this dataset include, among others, the ice number concentration, water content, PSD parameters, precipitation rate, mass-weighted fall velocity, vertical air motion, and effective radius, all of which are highly valuable for model evaluation and a general understanding of polar cloud sink processes. Each variable sample includes its mean value and associated uncertainty. Additional variables based on ARM measurements (liquid layer statistics, etc.) are included in this dataset as well. The retrieval algorithm and analysis of this dataset are described in Silber (JGR, 2023, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JD038202).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1995

Estimating the urban bias of surface shelter temperatures using upper-air and satellite data. Part 1: Development of models predicting surface shelter temperatures

Multiple regression techniques were used to predict surface shelter temperatures based on the time period 1986-89 using upper-air data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) to represent the background climate and site-specific data to represent the local landscape. Global monthly mean temperature models were developed using data from over 5000 stations available in the Global Historical Climate Network (GHCN). Monthly maximum, mean, and minimum temperature models for the United States were also developed using data from over 1000 stations available in the U.S. Cooperative (COOP) Network and comparative monthly mean temperature models were developed using over 1150 U.S. stations in the GHCN. Three-, six-, and full-variable models were developed for comparative purposes. Inferences about the variables selected for the various models were easier for the GHCN models, which displayed month-to-month consistency in which variables were selected, than for the COOP models, which were assigned a different list of variables for nearly every month. These and other results suggest that global calibration is preferred because data from the global spectrum of physical processes that control surface temperatures are incorporated in a global model. All of the models that were developed in this study validated relatively well, especially the global models. Recalibration of the models with validation data resulted in only slightly poorer regression statistics, indicating that the calibration list of variables was valid. Predictions using data from the validation dataset in the calibrated equation were better for the GHCN models, and the globally calibrated GHCN models generally provided better U.S. predictions than the U.S.-calibrated COOP models. Overall, the GHCN and COOP models explained approximately 64%-95% of the total variance of surface shelter temperatures, depending on the month and the number of model variables. In addition, root-mean-square errors (rmse's) were over 3 C for GHCN models and over 2 C for COOP models for winter months, and near 2 C for GHCN models and near 1.5 C for COOP models for summer months.

Epperson, David L.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Machine Learning Models for Binary Molecular Classification using VUV Absorption Spectra

Machine learning methods were combined with differential absorption spectroscopy measurements in the vacuum-ultraviolet region (5.167 – 9.920 eV) in order to develop predictive capabilities for inferring molecular structure from the spectra. Several types of species were analyzed and, for modeling purposes, were defined using a single classification: (1) alkane, (2) conjugation with oxygen (e.g. diacetyl, ethyl vinyl ether), (3) non-conjugated alkene (e.g. 1-butene, 1,4-cyclohexadiene), (4) oxygen-containing (e.g. 1-butanol, tetrahydrofuran), or (5) cyclic (e.g. cyclopentane, cyclohexanone). The latter molecular classification excluded cyclic ethers. Several modeling methods were employed in the analysis of 102 absorption spectra, 24 of which were measured for the first time. The primary objective was to identify suitable methods that enable accurate predictions of molecular structure classifications with minimized statistical uncertainties. Rather than identifying a single, unifying method to reliably predict molecular structure contributions to VUV absorption spectra, coordination is required among a particular method, the type of molecular structure detail (e.g. conjugation), and absorption region of interest. The latter is accomplished using a binning approach, wherein absorption regions of ~0.5 eV were utilized rather than the entire ~4.8 eV range. Photon energy binning enabled analysis of region-specific predictions of accuracy, precision, and recall. The outcome from the binning approach is that, rather than utilizing the entire spectrum, optimal determination of molecular structure using machine learning methods depends on the absorption region. Furthermore, the present work provides separate machine learning models for each molecular classification, which enables the identification of multi-functional species relevant to atmospheric chemistry and combustion chemistry, where isomer-resolved speciation is critical to understanding complex reaction networks.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NASA NTRS2021

Operational Detection of Sun Glints in DSCOVR EPIC Images

Satellite images often feature sun glints caused by the specular reflection of sunlight from water surfaces or from horizontally oriented ice crystals occurring in clouds. Such glints can prevent accurate retrievals of atmospheric and surface properties using existing algorithms, but the glints can also be used to infer more about the glint-causing objects—for example about the microphysical properties and radiative effects of ice clouds. This paper introduces the recently released operational glint product of the Earth Polychromatic Camera (EPIC) onboard the Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) spacecraft. Most importantly, the paper describes the algorithm used for generating the key component of the new product: a glint mask indicating the presence of sun glint caused by the specular reflection of sunlight from ice clouds and smooth water surfaces. After describing the glint detection algorithm and glint product, the paper shows some examples of the detected glints and discusses some basic statistics of the glint population in a yearlong dataset of EPIC images. These statistics provide insights into the performance of glint detection and point toward possibilities for using the glint product to gain scientific insights about ice clouds and water surfaces.

DSCOVR↗

DOE OSTI2025

Designing an Optimal Sensor Network via Minimizing Information Loss

Optimal experimental design is a classic topic in statistics, with many well-studied problems, applications, and solutions. The design problem we study is the placement of sensors to monitor spatiotemporal processes, explicitly accounting for the temporal dimension in our modeling and optimization. We observe that recent advancements in computational sciences often yield large datasets based on physics-based simulations, which are rarely leveraged in experimental design. We introduce a novel model-based sensor placement criterion, along with a highly-efficient optimization algorithm, which integrates physics-based simulations and Bayesian experimental design principles to identify sensor networks that “minimize information loss” from simulated data. Our technique relies on sparse variational inference and (separable) Gauss-Markov priors, and thus may adapt many techniques from Bayesian experimental design. We validate our method through a case study monitoring air temperature in Phoenix, Arizona, using state-of-the-art physics-based simulations. Our results show our framework to be superior to random or quasi-random sampling, particularly with a limited number of sensors. We conclude by discussing practical considerations and implications of our framework, including more complex modeling tools and real-world deployments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1985

A comparison of in situ and airborne radar observations of ocean wave directionality

The directional spectrum of a fully arisen, about 3 m sea as measured by an experimental airborne radar, the NASA K(u)-band radar ocean wave spectrometer (ROWS), is compared to reference pitch-roll buoy data and to the classical SWOP (stereo wave observations project) spectrum for fully developed conditions. The ROWS spectrum, inferred indirectly from backscattered power measurements at 5-km altitude, is shown to be in excellent agreement with the buoy spectrum. Specifically, excellent agreement is found between the two nondirectional height spectra, and mean wave directions and directional spreads as functions of frequency. A comparison of the ROWS and SWOP spectra shows the two spectra to be very similar, in detailed shape as well as in terms of the gross spreading characteristics. Both spectra are seen to exhibit bimodal structures which accord with the Phillips' (1958) resonance mechanism. This observation is thus seen to support Phillips' contention that the SWOP modes were indeed resonance modes, not statistical artifacts.

Jackson, F. C.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Total Lightning Observations of Extreme Weather Events over the Contiguous United States

The overall objective is to investigate total lightning characteristics of extreme weather events over the contiguous United States (CONUS) using TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) LIS (Lightning Image Sensor) and OTD (Optical Transient Detector) satellite observations. A large LIS (10+ years) and OTD (5 years) data base is available to study the instantaneous total or cloud-to-ground (CG) plus intracloud (IC) lightning characteristics of extreme weather events. More specifically, the LIS and OTD data are combined with National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) observations to examine the total and CG lightning flash rate and density, the IC:CG ratio, and positive CG percentage. These instantaneous lightning characteristics can be used for basic science studies to better understand the physical and dynamical linkages between lightning and precipitation and their environmental controls. They can also provide a first-look of extreme weather events leading up to future satellite observations (e.g., NOAA GOES-R Geostationary Lightning Mapper [GLM]) for use in climate studies and the short-term prediction and warning process. Extreme weather events are defined by the NOAA Storm Data reports of tornadoes, large hail (at least 0.75 inch) and strong straight-line winds (at least 50 kts). Over CONUS, there are over 70,000 severe storm reports in the TRMM spatial domain (< 35 N) from 1998-2007 and over 100,000 storm reports in the OTD spatial domain (5/1995-4/2000). Temporal co-location is on the order of 1% (i.e., 1000 s of coincident overpasses), providing a statistically significant sample of instantaneous total lightning properties. This instantaneous behavior of lightning in extreme weather is then compared to that of typical thunderstorm events, or randomly sampled LIS/OTD events in which the extreme events have been eliminated from the population. Results describing the instantaneous behavior of total lightning within a large sample of extreme and typical thunderstorms over CONUS will be presented. When possible, coincident VHF lightning observations from the ground-based Northern Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) are compared to the LIS/OTD optical lightning signatures, providing a validation source for instantaneous space-based optical lightning properties and a means to extend lightning inferences over the life-cycle of extreme weather.

Carey, Lawrence D.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Turbulent Statistics from Time-Resolved PIV Measurements of a Jet Using Empirical Mode Decomposition

Empirical mode decomposition is an adaptive signal processing method that when applied to a broadband signal, such as that generated by turbulence, acts as a set of band-pass filters. This process was applied to data from time-resolved, particle image velocimetry measurements of subsonic jets prior to computing the second-order, two-point, space-time correlations from which turbulent phase velocities and length and time scales could be determined. The application of this method to large sets of simultaneous time histories is new. In this initial study, the results are relevant to acoustic analogy source models for jet noise prediction. The high frequency portion of the results could provide the turbulent values for subgrid scale models for noise that is missed in large-eddy simulations. The results are also used to infer that the cross-correlations between different components of the decomposed signals at two points in space, neglected in this initial study, are important.

Dahl, Milo D.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Turbulent Statistics from Time-Resolved PIV Measurements of a Jet Using Empirical Mode Decomposition

Dahl, Milo D.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Turbulent Statistics From Time-Resolved PIV Measurements of a Jet Using Empirical Mode Decomposition

Dahl, Milo D.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Good and proper: self-similarity of N -body simulations with proper force softening

ABSTRACT Analysis of self-similarity in scale-free N-body simulations reveals the spatial and temporal scales for which statistics measured in cosmological simulations are converged to the physical continuum limit. We examine how the range of scales in which the two-point correlation function is converged depends on the force softening length and whether it is held constant in comoving or proper coordinates. We find that a proper softening that reaches roughly 1/30th of the inter-particle spacing by the end of the simulation resolves the same spatial and temporal scales as a comoving softening of the same length while using a third fewer time-steps, for a range of scale factors typical to Lambda cold dark matter (ΛCDM) simulations. We additionally infer an inherent resolution limit, set by the particle mass and scaling as a−1/2, beyond which reducing the softening does not improve the resolution. We postulate a mapping of these results with spectral index n = −2 to ΛCDM simulations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗