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NASA NTRS2007

Climate-Induced Boreal Forest Change: Predictions versus Current Observations

For about three decades, there have been many predictions of the potential ecological response in boreal regions to the currently warmer conditions. In essence, a widespread, naturally occurring experiment has been conducted over time. In this paper, we describe previously modeled predictions of ecological change in boreal Alaska, Canada and Russia, and then we investigate potential evidence of current climate-induced change. For instance, ecological models have suggested that warming will induce the northern and upslope migration of the treeline and an alteration in the current mosaic structure of boreal forests. We present evidence of the migration of keystone ecosystems in the upland and lowland treeline of mountainous regions across southern Siberia. Ecological models have also predicted a moisture-stress-related dieback in white spruce trees in Alaska, and current investigations show that as temperatures increase, white spruce tree growth is declining. Additionally, it was suggested that increases in infestation and wildfire disturbance would be catalysts that precipitate the alteration of the current mosaic forest composition. In Siberia, five of the last seven years have resulted in extreme fire seasons, and extreme fire years have also been more frequent in both Alaska and Canada. In addition, Alaska has experienced extreme and geographically expansive multi-year outbreaks of the spruce beetle, which had been previously limited by the cold, moist environment. We suggest that there is substantial evidence throughout the circumboreal region to conclude that the biosphere within the boreal terrestrial environment has already responded to the transient effects of climate change. Additionally, temperature increases and warming-induced change are progressing faster than had been predicted in some regions, suggesting a potential non-linear rapid response to changes in climate, as opposed to the predicted slow linear response to climate change.

Soja, Amber J.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Laboratory and Airborne BRDF Analysis of Vegetation Leaves and Soil Samples

Laboratory-based Bidirectional Reflectance Distribution Function (BRDF) analysis of vegetation leaves, soil, and leaf litter samples is presented. The leaf litter and soil samples, numbered 1 and 2, were obtained from a site located in the savanna biome of South Africa (Skukuza: 25.0degS, 31.5degE). A third soil sample, number 3, was obtained from Etosha Pan, Namibia (19.20degS, 15.93degE, alt. 1100 m). In addition, BRDF of local fresh and dry leaves from tulip tree (Liriodendron tulipifera) and acacia tree (Acacia greggii) were studied. It is shown how the BRDF depends on the incident and scatter angles, sample size (i.e. crushed versus whole leaf,) soil samples fraction size, sample status (i.e. fresh versus dry leaves), vegetation species (poplar versus acacia), and vegetation s biochemical composition. As a demonstration of the application of the results of this study, airborne BRDF measurements acquired with NASA's Cloud Absorption Radiometer (CAR) over the same general site where the soil and leaf litter samples were obtained are compared to the laboratory results. Good agreement between laboratory and airborne measured BRDF is reported.

Georgiev, Georgi T.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Canopy Level Solar Induced Fluorescence for Vegetation in Controlled Experiments

Solar induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) was retrieved from high resolution reflectance spectra acquired one meter above saplings of three deciduous tree species during springtime (three weeks after leaf flush) and in late summer when foliage was mature. SIF was determined by application of the Fraunhofer Line Depth (FLD) Principal to above-canopy spectra acquired with an Analytical Spectral Devices (ASD) Fieldspec spectroradiometer (3.2 nm resolution with 1.2 nm sampling interval). SIF retrievals were made at the two atmospheric oxygen (O2) absorption features that occur in the chlorophyll fluorescence (ChlF) region (660 -780 nm). These telluric features are 02V, the broader and deeper feature centered at 760 nm, but located on the shoulder of the far-red ChlF peak at 740 nm; and 023, a narrow feature centered at 688 nm that is positioned near the red ChlF peak at 685 nm. Supporting, coincident leaf level fluorescence, reflectance, photochemical and other measurements were also made. At the leaf level, these measurements included in situ photosynthetic capacity (Pmax) and light adapted total chlorophyll fluorescence (Fs') collected at steady state under high light and controlled chamber conditions (e.g., temperature, PAR, humidity, and COz); optical properties (reflectance, transmittance, absorptance); chlorophyll and carotenoid content; specific leaf mass; carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) content; fluorescence emission spectra at multiple excitation wavelengths; the ChlF contribution to red (R) and far-red (FR) reflectance; fluorescence imagery; and fluorescence excitation-emission matrices (EEMs). The tree species examined were tulip poplar (Liriodendron tulipifera L.), red maple (Acer rubrum L.), and sweetgum (Liquidambar styraczflua L.), and each had been provided four levels of N augmentation (0, 19, 37, and 75 kg Nhectare seasonally) to simulate atmospheric deposition from air pollution. Whole-plant SIF measurements of these species were compared with SIF estimates derived using FluorMOD, a radiative transfer model that includes fluorescence properties of foliage, when provided with our supporting measurements. Simulated values for SIF were also compared with similar estimates made over three years for corn (Zea mays L) crops under N treatments (20, 50,70, and 140 kg Nhectare) and with corn and pepper (Capsicum annuum L.) plants provided dimethyl urea (DCMU, 0 and 5 x 10" M) which were grown in pots and grouped in artificial canopies for spectral measurements. For near-surface measurements of healthy and stressed vegetation, red SIF retrieved at 688 nm (023) varied between 2-7 mW/m(exp 2)/nm/sr while far-red SIF retrieved at 760 nm (O2A) varied between 0.5 and 4.0 mW/m(exp 2)/nm/sr. Typical values for the SIF red/far-red ratio ranged between 1.75 and 4.0. Relationships of SIF to spectral reflectance indices and foliar photochemical indices were examined, such as photosynthetic light use efficiency. Initial investigations of the variability in these measurements at the same leaf temperature for sunlit and shaded foliage showed us that shaded foliage produced higher ChlF and light use efficiency. Other factors that affect SIF determinations are discussed. These results will assist in determine the expected intensity of the SIF signal from vegetation near the surface, as well as to identify enhancements needed for FluorMOD (or other such models), and will assist in determining relationships of SIF to reflectance indices and carbon dynamics.

Middleton, E. M.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Impact of Urban Growth on Surface Climate: A Case Study in Oran, Algeria

We develop a land use map discriminating urban surfaces from other cover types over a semiarid region in North Africa and use it in a land surface model to assess the impact of urbanized land on surface energy, water and carbon balances. Unlike in temperate climates where urbanization creates a marked heat island effect, this effect is not strongly marked in semiarid regions. During summer, the urban class results in an additional warming of 1.45 C during daytime and 0.81 C at night compared to that simulated for needleleaf trees under similar climate conditions. Seasonal temperatures show urban areas warmer than their surrounding during summer and slightly cooler in winter. The hydrological cycle is practically "shut down" during summer and characterized by relatively large amount of runoff in winter. We estimate the annual amount of carbon uptake to 1.94 million metric tons with only 11.9% assimilated during the rainy season. However, if urbanization expands to reach 50% of the total area excluding forests, the annual total carbon uptake will decline by 35% and the July mean temperature would increase only 0.10 C, compared to current situation. In contrast, if urbanization expands to 50% of the total land excluding forests and croplands but all short vegetation is replaced by native broadleaf deciduous trees, the annual carbon uptake would increase 39% and the July mean temperature would decrease by 0.9 C, compared to current configuration. These results provide guidelines for urban planners and land use managers and indicate possibilities for mitigating the urban heat.

Bounoua, Lahouari↗

NASA NTRS2007

Newton-Euler Dynamic Equations of Motion for a Multi-body Spacecraft

The Magnetospheric MultiScale (MMS) mission employs a formation of spinning spacecraft with several flexible appendages and thruster-based control. To understand the complex dynamic interaction of thruster actuation, appendage motion, and spin dynamics, each spacecraft is modeled as a tree of rigid bodies connected by spherical or gimballed joints. The method presented facilitates assembling by inspection the exact, nonlinear dynamic equations of motion for a multibody spacecraft suitable for solution by numerical integration. The building block equations are derived by applying Newton's and Euler's equations of motion to an "element" consisting of two bodies and one joint (spherical and gimballed joints are considered separately). Patterns in the "mass" and L'force" matrices guide assembly by inspection of a general N-body tree-topology system. Straightforward linear algebra operations are employed to eliminate extraneous constraint equations, resulting in a minimum-dimension system of equations to solve. This method thus combines a straightforward, easily-extendable, easily-mechanized formulation with an efficient computer implementation.

Stoneking, Eric↗

NASA NTRS2009

Efficient Multiplexer FPGA Block Structures Based on G4FETs

Generic structures have been conceived for multiplexer blocks to be implemented in field-programmable gate arrays (FPGAs) based on four-gate field-effect transistors (G(sup 4)FETs). This concept is a contribution to the continuing development of digital logic circuits based on G4FETs and serves as a further demonstration that logic circuits based on G(sup 4)FETs could be more efficient (in the sense that they could contain fewer transistors), relative to functionally equivalent logic circuits based on conventional transistors. Results in this line of development at earlier stages were summarized in two previous NASA Tech Briefs articles: "G(sup 4)FETs as Universal and Programmable Logic Gates" (NPO-41698), Vol. 31, No. 7 (July 2007), page 44, and "Efficient G4FET-Based Logic Circuits" (NPO-44407), Vol. 32, No. 1 ( January 2008), page 38 . As described in the first-mentioned previous article, a G4FET can be made to function as a three-input NOT-majority gate, which has been shown to be a universal and programmable logic gate. The universality and programmability could be exploited to design logic circuits containing fewer components than are required for conventional transistor-based circuits performing the same logic functions. The second-mentioned previous article reported results of a comparative study of NOT-majority-gate (G(sup 4)FET)-based logic-circuit designs and equivalent NOR- and NAND-gate-based designs utilizing conventional transistors. [NOT gates (inverters) were also included, as needed, in both the G(sup 4)FET- and the NOR- and NAND-based designs.] In most of the cases studied, fewer logic gates (and, hence, fewer transistors), were required in the G(sup 4)FET-based designs. There are two popular categories of FPGA block structures or architectures: one based on multiplexers, the other based on lookup tables. In standard multiplexer- based architectures, the basic building block is a tree-like configuration of multiplexers, with possibly a few additional logic gates such as ANDs or ORs. Interconnections are realized by means of programmable switches that may connect the input terminals of a block to output terminals of other blocks, may bridge together some of the inputs, or may connect some of the input terminals to signal sources representing constant logical levels 0 or 1. The left part of the figure depicts a four-to-one G(sup 4)FET-based multiplexer tree; the right part of the figure depicts a functionally equivalent four-to-one multiplexer based on conventional transistors. The G(sup 4)FET version would contains 54 transistors; the conventional version contains 70 transistors.

Vatan, Farrokh↗

NASA NTRS2009

Hardware Implementation of a Bilateral Subtraction Filter

A bilateral subtraction filter has been implemented as a hardware module in the form of a field-programmable gate array (FPGA). In general, a bilateral subtraction filter is a key subsystem of a high-quality stereoscopic machine vision system that utilizes images that are large and/or dense. Bilateral subtraction filters have been implemented in software on general-purpose computers, but the processing speeds attainable in this way even on computers containing the fastest processors are insufficient for real-time applications. The present FPGA bilateral subtraction filter is intended to accelerate processing to real-time speed and to be a prototype of a link in a stereoscopic-machine- vision processing chain, now under development, that would process large and/or dense images in real time and would be implemented in an FPGA. In terms that are necessarily oversimplified for the sake of brevity, a bilateral subtraction filter is a smoothing, edge-preserving filter for suppressing low-frequency noise. The filter operation amounts to replacing the value for each pixel with a weighted average of the values of that pixel and the neighboring pixels in a predefined neighborhood or window (e.g., a 9 9 window). The filter weights depend partly on pixel values and partly on the window size. The present FPGA implementation of a bilateral subtraction filter utilizes a 9 9 window. This implementation was designed to take advantage of the ability to do many of the component computations in parallel pipelines to enable processing of image data at the rate at which they are generated. The filter can be considered to be divided into the following parts (see figure): a) An image pixel pipeline with a 9 9- pixel window generator, b) An array of processing elements; c) An adder tree; d) A smoothing-and-delaying unit; and e) A subtraction unit. After each 9 9 window is created, the affected pixel data are fed to the processing elements. Each processing element is fed the pixel value for its position in the window as well as the pixel value for the central pixel of the window. The absolute difference between these two pixel values is calculated and used as an address in a lookup table. Each processing element has a lookup table, unique for its position in the window, containing the weight coefficients for the Gaussian function for that position. The pixel value is multiplied by the weight, and the outputs of the processing element are the weight and pixel-value weight product. The products and weights are fed to the adder tree. The sum of the products and the sum of the weights are fed to the divider, which computes the sum of products the sum of weights. The output of the divider is denoted the bilateral smoothed image. The smoothing function is a simple weighted average computed over a 3 3 subwindow centered in the 9 9 window. After smoothing, the image is delayed by an additional amount of time needed to match the processing time for computing the bilateral smoothed image. The bilateral smoothed image is then subtracted from the 3 3 smoothed image to produce the final output. The prototype filter as implemented in a commercially available FPGA processes one pixel per clock cycle. Operation at a clock speed of 66 MHz has been demonstrated, and results of a static timing analysis have been interpreted as suggesting that the clock speed could be increased to as much as 100 MHz.

Huertas, Andres↗

NASA NTRS2010

Constellation Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA): Design Consideration for the Crew Exploration Vehicle

Managed by NASA's Office of Safety and Mission Assurance, a pilot probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) of the NASA Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) was performed in early 2006. The PRA methods used follow the general guidance provided in the NASA PRA Procedures Guide for NASA Managers and Practitioners'. Phased-mission based event trees and fault trees are used to model a lunar sortie mission of the CEV - involving the following phases: launch of a cargo vessel and a crew vessel; rendezvous of these two vessels in low Earth orbit; transit to th$: moon; lunar surface activities; ascension &om the lunar surface; and return to Earth. The analysis is based upon assumptions, preliminary system diagrams, and failure data that may involve large uncertainties or may lack formal validation. Furthermore, some of the data used were based upon expert judgment or extrapolated from similar components~systemsT. his paper includes a discussion of the system-level models and provides an overview of the analysis results used to identify insights into CEV risk drivers, and trade and sensitivity studies. Lastly, the PRA model was used to determine changes in risk as the system configurations or key parameters are modified.

Prassinos, Peter G.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Risk-Informed Safety Assurance and Probabilistic Assessment of Mission-Critical Software-Intensive Systems

This report validates and documents the detailed features and practical application of the framework for software intensive digital systems risk assessment and risk-informed safety assurance presented in the NASA PRA Procedures Guide for Managers and Practitioner. This framework, called herein the "Context-based Software Risk Model" (CSRM), enables the assessment of the contribution of software and software-intensive digital systems to overall system risk, in a manner which is entirely compatible and integrated with the format of a "standard" Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), as currently documented and applied for NASA missions and applications. The CSRM also provides a risk-informed path and criteria for conducting organized and systematic digital system and software testing so that, within this risk-informed paradigm, the achievement of a quantitatively defined level of safety and mission success assurance may be targeted and demonstrated. The framework is based on the concept of context-dependent software risk scenarios and on the modeling of such scenarios via the use of traditional PRA techniques - i.e., event trees and fault trees - in combination with more advanced modeling devices such as the Dynamic Flowgraph Methodology (DFM) or other dynamic logic-modeling representations. The scenarios can be synthesized and quantified in a conditional logic and probabilistic formulation. The application of the CSRM method documented in this report refers to the MiniAERCam system designed and developed by the NASA Johnson Space Center.

Guarro, Sergio B.↗

NASA NTRS2010

A First-Order Radiative Transfer Model for Microwave Radiometry of Forest Canopies at L-Band

In this study, a new first-order radiative transfer (RT) model is developed to more accurately account for vegetation canopy scattering by modifying the basic r-co model (the zero-order RT solution). In order to optimally utilize microwave radiometric data in soil moisture (SM) retrievals over moderately to densely vegetated landscapes, a quantitative understanding of the relationship between scattering mechanisms within vegetation canopies and the microwave brightness temperature is desirable. A first-order RT model is used to investigate this relationship and to perform a physical analysis of the scattered and emitted radiation from vegetated terrain. The new model is based on an iterative solution (successive orders of scattering) of the RT equations up to the first order. This formulation adds a new scattering term to the i-w model. The additional term represents emission by particles (vegetation components) in the vegetation layer and emission by the ground that is scattered once by particles in the layer. The new model is tested against 1.4 GHz brightness temperature measurements acquired over deciduous trees by a truck-mounted microwave instrument system called ComRAD in 2007. The model predictions are in good agreement with the data and they give quantitative understanding for the influence of first-order scattering within the canopy on the brightness temperature. The model results show that the scattering term is significant for trees and modifications are necessary to the T-w model when applied to dense vegetation. Numerical simulations also indicate that the scattering term has a negligible dependence on SM and is mainly a function of the angle and polarization of the microwave observation.

Kurum, Mehmet↗

NASA NTRS2010

Systems Maintenance Automated Repair Tasks (SMART)

SMART is a uniform automated discrepancy analysis and repair-authoring platform that improves technical accuracy and timely delivery of repair procedures for a given discrepancy (see figure a). SMART will minimize data errors, create uniform repair processes, and enhance the existing knowledge base of engineering repair processes. This innovation is the first tool developed that links the hardware specification requirements with the actual repair methods, sequences, and required equipment. SMART is flexibly designed to be useable by multiple engineering groups requiring decision analysis, and by any work authorization and disposition platform (see figure b). The organizational logic creates the link between specification requirements of the hardware, and specific procedures required to repair discrepancies. The first segment in the SMART process uses a decision analysis tree to define all the permutations between component/ subcomponent/discrepancy/repair on the hardware. The second segment uses a repair matrix to define what the steps and sequences are for any repair defined in the decision tree. This segment also allows for the selection of specific steps from multivariable steps. SMART will also be able to interface with outside databases and to store information from them to be inserted into the repair-procedure document. Some of the steps will be identified as optional, and would only be used based on the location and the current configuration of the hardware. The output from this analysis would be sent to a work authoring system in the form of a predefined sequence of steps containing required actions, tools, parts, materials, certifications, and specific requirements controlling quality, functional requirements, and limitations.

Schuh, Joseph↗

NASA NTRS2010

Initialization and Restart in Stochastic Local Search: Computing a Most Probable Explanation in Bayesian Networks

For hard computational problems, stochastic local search has proven to be a competitive approach to finding optimal or approximately optimal problem solutions. Two key research questions for stochastic local search algorithms are: Which algorithms are effective for initialization? When should the search process be restarted? In the present work we investigate these research questions in the context of approximate computation of most probable explanations (MPEs) in Bayesian networks (BNs). We introduce a novel approach, based on the Viterbi algorithm, to explanation initialization in BNs. While the Viterbi algorithm works on sequences and trees, our approach works on BNs with arbitrary topologies. We also give a novel formalization of stochastic local search, with focus on initialization and restart, using probability theory and mixture models. Experimentally, we apply our methods to the problem of MPE computation, using a stochastic local search algorithm known as Stochastic Greedy Search. By carefully optimizing both initialization and restart, we reduce the MPE search time for application BNs by several orders of magnitude compared to using uniform at random initialization without restart. On several BNs from applications, the performance of Stochastic Greedy Search is competitive with clique tree clustering, a state-of-the-art exact algorithm used for MPE computation in BNs.

Mengshoel, Ole J.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Mapping and Quantification of Vascular Branching in Plants, Animals and Humans by VESGEN Software

Humans face daunting challenges in the successful exploration and colonization of space, including adverse alterations in gravity and radiation. The Earth-determined biology of humans, animals and plants is significantly modified in such extraterrestrial environments. One physiological requirement shared by humans with larger plants and animals is a complex, highly branching vascular system that is dynamically responsive to cellular metabolism, immunological protection and specialized cellular/tissue function. The VESsel GENeration (VESGEN) Analysis has been developed as a mature beta version, pre-release research software for mapping and quantification of the fractal-based complexity of vascular branching. Alterations in vascular branching pattern can provide informative read-outs of altered vascular regulation. Originally developed for biomedical applications in angiogenesis, VESGEN 2D has provided novel insights into the cytokine, transgenic and therapeutic regulation of angiogenesis, lymphangiogenesis and other microvascular remodeling phenomena. Vascular trees, networks and tree-network composites are mapped and quantified. Applications include disease progression from clinical ophthalmic images of the human retina; experimental regulation of vascular remodeling in the mouse retina; avian and mouse coronary vasculature, and other experimental models in vivo. We envision that altered branching in the leaves of plants studied on ISS such as Arabidopsis thaliana cans also be analyzed.

Parsons-Wingerter, Patricia A.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Resilience of Alaska's Boreal Forest to Climatic Change

This paper assesses the resilience of Alaska s boreal forest system to rapid climatic change. Recent warming is associated with reduced growth of dominant tree species, plant disease and insect outbreaks, warming and thawing of permafrost, drying of lakes, increased wildfire extent, increased postfire recruitment of deciduous trees, and reduced safety of hunters traveling on river ice. These changes have modified key structural features, feedbacks, and interactions in the boreal forest, including reduced effects of upland permafrost on regional hydrology, expansion of boreal forest into tundra, and amplification of climate warming because of reduced albedo (shorter winter season) and carbon release from wildfires. Other temperature-sensitive processes for which no trends have been detected include composition of plant and microbial communities, long-term landscape-scale change in carbon stocks, stream discharge, mammalian population dynamics, and river access and subsistence opportunities for rural indigenous communities. Projections of continued warming suggest that Alaska s boreal forest will undergo significant functional and structural changes within the next few decades that are unprecedented in the last 6000 years. The impact of these social ecological changes will depend in part on the extent of landscape reorganization between uplands and lowlands and on policies regulating subsistence opportunities for rural communities.

Chapin, F. S., III↗

NASA NTRS2011

Persistent Effects of Fire Severity on Early Successional Forests in Interior Alaska

There has been a recent increase in the frequency and extent of wildfires in interior Alaska, and this trend is predicted to continue under a warming climate. Although less well documented, corresponding increases in fire severity are expected. Previous research from boreal forests in Alaska and western Canada indicate that severe fire promotes the recruitment of deciduous tree species and decreases the relative abundance of black spruce (Picea mariana) immediately after fire. Here we extend these observations by (1) examining changes in patterns of aspen and spruce density and biomass that occurred during the first two decades of post-fire succession, and (2) comparing patterns of tree composition in relation to variations in post-fire organic layer depth in four burned black spruce forests in interior Alaska after 10-20 years of succession.Wefound that initial effects of fire severity on recruitment and establishment of aspen and black spruce were maintained by subsequent effects of organic layer depth and initial plant biomass on plant growth during post-fire succession. The proportional contribution of aspen (Populus tremuloides) to total stand biomass remained above 90% during the first and second decades of succession in severely burned sites, while in lightly burned sites the proportional contribution of aspen was reduced due to a 40- fold increase in spruce biomass in these sites. Relationships between organic layer depth and stem density and biomass were consistently negative for aspen, and positive or neutral for black spruce in all four burns. Our results suggest that initial effects of post-fire organic layer depths on deciduous recruitment are likely to translate into a prolonged phase of deciduous dominance during post-fire succession in severely burned stands. This shift in vegetation distribution has important implications for climate-albedo feedbacks, future fire regime, wildlife habitat quality and natural resources for indigenous subsistence activities in interior Alaska.

Shenoy, Aditi↗

NASA NTRS2011

A Phobos-Deimos Mission as an Element of the NASA Mars Design Reference Architecture 5.0

NASA has conducted a series of mission studies over the past 25 years examining the eventual exploration of the surface of Mars by humans. The latest version of this evolutionary series of design reference missions/architectures - Design Reference Architecture 5 or DRA-5 - was completed in 2007. This paper examines the implications of including a human mission to explore the moons of Mars and teleoperate robots in various locations, but not to land the human crews on Mars, as an element of this reference architecture. Such a mission has been proposed several times during this same 25 year evolution leading up to the completion of DRA-5 primarily as a mission of testing the in-space vehicles and operations while surface vehicles and landers are under development. But such a precursor or test mission has never been explicitly included as an element of this Architecture. This paper will first summarize the key features of the DRA-5 to provide context for the remainder of the assessment. This will include a description of the in-space vehicles that would be the subject of a shakedown test during the Mars orbital mission. A decision tree will be used to illustrate the factors that will be analyzed, and the sequence in which they will be addressed, for this assessment. The factors that will be analyzed include the type of interplanetary transfer orbit (opposition class versus conjunction class), the type of parking orbit (circular versus elliptical), and the type of propulsion technology (high thrust chemical versus nuclear thermal rocket). The manner in which each of these factors impacts an individual mission will be described. In addition to the direct impact of these factors, additional considerations impacting crew health and overall programmatic outcomes will be discussed. Numerical results for each of the factors in the decision tree will be grouped with derived qualitative impacts from crew health and programmatic consideration. These quantitative and qualitative results will be summarized in a pros/cons table as a summary for this analysis.

Hoffman, Stephen J.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Adaptive Numerical Algorithms in Space Weather Modeling

Space weather describes the various processes in the Sun-Earth system that present danger to human health and technology. The goal of space weather forecasting is to provide an opportunity to mitigate these negative effects. Physics-based space weather modeling is characterized by disparate temporal and spatial scales as well as by different physics in different domains. A multi-physics system can be modeled by a software framework comprising of several components. Each component corresponds to a physics domain, and each component is represented by one or more numerical models. The publicly available Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) can execute and couple together several components distributed over a parallel machine in a flexible and efficient manner. The framework also allows resolving disparate spatial and temporal scales with independent spatial and temporal discretizations in the various models. Several of the computationally most expensive domains of the framework are modeled by the Block-Adaptive Tree Solar wind Roe Upwind Scheme (BATS-R-US) code that can solve various forms of the magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) equations, including Hall, semi-relativistic, multi-species and multi-fluid MHD, anisotropic pressure, radiative transport and heat conduction. Modeling disparate scales within BATS-R-US is achieved by a block-adaptive mesh both in Cartesian and generalized coordinates. Most recently we have created a new core for BATS-R-US: the Block-Adaptive Tree Library (BATL) that provides a general toolkit for creating, load balancing and message passing in a 1, 2 or 3 dimensional block-adaptive grid. We describe the algorithms of BATL and demonstrate its efficiency and scaling properties for various problems. BATS-R-US uses several time-integration schemes to address multiple time-scales: explicit time stepping with fixed or local time steps, partially steady-state evolution, point-implicit, semi-implicit, explicit/implicit, and fully implicit numerical schemes. Depending on the application, we find that different time stepping methods are optimal. Several of the time integration schemes exploit the block-based granularity of the grid structure. The framework and the adaptive algorithms enable physics based space weather modeling and even forecasting.

Toth, Gabor↗

NASA NTRS2010

Accelerated Monte Carlo Simulation for Safety Analysis of the Advanced Airspace Concept

Safe separation of aircraft is a primary objective of any air traffic control system. An accelerated Monte Carlo approach was developed to assess the level of safety provided by a proposed next-generation air traffic control system. It combines features of fault tree and standard Monte Carlo methods. It runs more than one order of magnitude faster than the standard Monte Carlo method while providing risk estimates that only differ by about 10%. It also preserves component-level model fidelity that is difficult to maintain using the standard fault tree method. This balance of speed and fidelity allows sensitivity analysis to be completed in days instead of weeks or months with the standard Monte Carlo method. Results indicate that risk estimates are sensitive to transponder, pilot visual avoidance, and conflict detection failure probabilities.

Thipphavong, David↗