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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Pore-scale simulation of drying in porous media using a hybrid lattice Boltzmann: pore network model

In this work, a hybrid method coupling a pseudo-potential lattice Boltzmann model (LBM) and a pore network model (PNM) to simulate drying in porous media is proposed. Based on the watershed method, the porous medium is firstly decomposed into pore regions. According to the liquid–vapor phase distribution at a given time, the pore regions are further divided into four pore types, namely two-phase pores where a liquid–vapor interface exists, buffer pores next to the two-phase pores, single-liquid and single-vapor phase pores. The pseudo-potential LBM is used in the two-phase and buffer pores to simulate liquid drying and track the movement of the interfaces, while the single-phase PNM simulations are conducted in the buffer and single-phase pores to simulate vapor or liquid flow. LBM and PNM are coupled in the buffer pores through exchange of boundary information. The hybrid method is applied to simulate liquid drying in a porous medium. The whole-domain LBM simulation is considered as the reference solution to validate the hybrid method. Liquid saturation variation during the drying process and detailed phase and pressure distributions obtained by the two methods match quite well, demonstrating the accuracy of the hybrid method. For the specific case studied, the hybrid method saves more than 60% computational time compared to the whole-domain LBM simulation. In addition, the speedup of the hybrid method becomes more significant for a larger computational domain. In summary, the hybrid method developed in this work combines the accuracy of LBM and the efficiency of PNM to simulate drying in porous media at pore scale and can lead to significant reduction of computation time, thus allowing the pore-scale consideration of drying in larger porous systems.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Functional Data Analysis in Wearable Body Sensor Networks

Improving response time of indirect room-size calorimeters is still an outstanding problem in metabolic research. Accurate estimates of instantaneous rates of gaseous exchange require numerical differentiation of measured gaseousgas concentrations. We propose a new method to estimate the instantaneous gaseousgas exchange rates in indirect calorimetry. In contrast to the previously developed techniques, the method addresses the problem of differentiation of gaseous concentrations as an ill-posed problem. By applying the method of regularization, the problem of differentiation is converted into a well-posed problem resulting in smooth and consistent gaseous exchange rates. The validity of the method is tested on a large dataset of calorimeter experiments which included 313 human experiments along with 231 alcohol combustion experiments. It is demonstrated that the method is able to reliably differentiate between the “unphysiological” process of alcohol combustion and physiological variations produced by human metabolism. The method also allowed unraveling the previously unreported relative kinetics of O2 consumption and Respiratory Quotient (RQ) in humans. It was found that the kinetics of oxidative fuel selection lags behind the energy expenditure in humans exhibiting some sort of oxidative inertia. The time lag varies from 2-3 min up to 30 min, depending on particular individual. No such lag was found in alcohol combustion experiments. In addition to the relative kinetics of substrate oxidation, two statistical indexes reflecting variability of minute-by-minute RQ were estimated. The indexes were the RQ’s standard deviation and RQ’s first-order derivative. Both indexes showed statistically significant difference between human experiments and alcohol combustion experiments. We conclude that the proposed method can consistently extract physiologically-relevant information from noisy calorimetry data and the aforesaid information can provide additional insights into the mechanism of metabolic fuel selection in humans.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Functional Data Analysis in Wearable Body Sensor Networks

Improving response time of indirect room-size calorimeters is still an outstanding problem in metabolic research. Accurate estimates of instantaneous rates of gaseous exchange require numerical differentiation of measured gaseousgas concentrations. We propose a new method to estimate the instantaneous gaseousgas exchange rates in indirect calorimetry. In contrast to the previously developed techniques, the method addresses the problem of differentiation of gaseous concentrations as an ill-posed problem. By applying the method of regularization, the problem of differentiation is converted into a well-posed problem resulting in smooth and consistent gaseous exchange rates. The validity of the method is tested on a large dataset of calorimeter experiments which included 313 human experiments along with 231 alcohol combustion experiments. It is demonstrated that the method is able to reliably differentiate between the “unphysiological” process of alcohol combustion and physiological variations produced by human metabolism. The method also allowed unraveling the previously unreported relative kinetics of O2 consumption and Respiratory Quotient (RQ) in humans. It was found that the kinetics of oxidative fuel selection lags behind the energy expenditure in humans exhibiting some sort of oxidative inertia. The time lag varies from 2-3 min up to 30 min, depending on particular individual. No such lag was found in alcohol combustion experiments. In addition to the relative kinetics of substrate oxidation, two statistical indexes reflecting variability of minute-by-minute RQ were estimated. The indexes were the RQ’s standard deviation and RQ’s first-order derivative. Both indexes showed statistically significant difference between human experiments and alcohol combustion experiments. We conclude that the proposed method can consistently extract physiologically-relevant information from noisy calorimetry data and the aforesaid information can provide additional insights into the mechanism of metabolic fuel selection in humans.

60 - APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Industrializing Offshore Wind Power with Serial Assembly and Lower-cost Deployment - Final Report

A team of engineers and contractors has developed a method to move offshore wind installation toward lower cost, faster deployment, and lower environmental impact. A combination of methods, some incremental and some breaks from past practice, interact to yield multiple improvements. Three designs were evaluated based on detailed engineering: 1) a 5 MW turbine on a jacket with pin piles (base case), 2) a 10 MW turbine on a conventional jacket with pin piles, assembled at sea, and 3) a 10 MW turbine on tripod jacket with suction buckets (caissons) and with complete turbine assembly on-shore. The larger turbine, assembly ashore, and the use of suction buckets together substantially reduce capital cost of offshore wind projects. Notable capital cost reductions are: changing from 5 MW to 10 MW turbine, a 31% capital cost reduction, and assembly on land then single-piece install at sea an additional 9% capital cost reduction. An estimated Design 4) estimates further cost reduction when equipment and processes of Design 3) are optimized, rather than adapted to existing equipment and process. Cost of energy for each of the four Designs are also calculated, yielding approximately the same percentage reductions. The methods of Design 3) analyzed here include accepted structures such as suction buckets used in new ways, innovations conceived but previously without engineering and economic validation, combined with new methods not previously proposed. Analysis of Designs 2) and 3) are based on extensive engineering calculations and detailed cost estimates. All design methods can be done with existing equipment, including lift equipment, ports and ships (except that design 4 assumes a more optimized ship). The design team consists of experienced offshore structure designers, heavy lift engineers, wind turbine designers, vessel operators, and marine construction contractors. Comparing the methods based on criteria of cost and deployment speed, the study selected the third design. That design is, in brief: a conventional turbine and tubular tower is mounted on a tripod jacket, in turn atop three suction buckets. Blades are mounted on the tower, not on the hub. The entire structure is built in port, from the bottom up, then assembled structures are queued in the port for deployment. During weather windows, the fully-assembled structures are lifted off the quay, lashed to the vessel, and transported to the deployment site. The vessel analyzed is a shear leg crane vessel with dynamic positioning like the existing Gulliver, or it could be a US-built crane barge. On site, the entire structure is lowered to the bottom by the crane vessel, then pumping of the suction buckets is managed by smaller service vessels. Blades are lifted into place by small winches operated by workers in the nacelle without lift vessel support. Advantages of the selected design include: cost and time at sea of the expensive lift vessel are significantly reduced; no jack up vessel is required; the weather window required for each installation is shorter; turbine structure construction is continuous with a queue feeding the weather-dependent installation process; pre-installation geotechnical work is faster and less expensive; there are no sound impacts on marine mammals, thus minimal spotting and no work stoppage Industrializing Offshore Wind Power 6 of 96 9 for mammal passage; the entire structure can be removed for decommissioning or major repairs; the method has been validated for current turbines up to 10 MW, and a calculation using simple scaling shows it usable up to 20 MW turbines.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Overview of Nuclear Data Measurement and Analysis at RPI [Slides]

This presentation discusses the experimental, simulation, and nuclear data methods that were validated for the RPI γ-Multiplicity Detector. When the neutron capture γ-cascade data is well-known, the γ-emission spectra can be accurately calculated using the modified simulation tools. The RPI γ-Multiplicity Detector system is now ready for analysis and recommendations for isotopes with deficiencies in γ-ray data. The presentation also discusses future work which includes developing a method for analyzing and adjusting nuclear data for 59 Co, 55 Mn and other measured isotopes including 181 Ta. Additionally, future work includes comparing experimental γ-emission spectra with MCNP-6.2/DICEBOX simulations for 238 U and 235 U. In summation, new capture and transmission measurements for 54 Fe will help improve resonance parameter evaluation. Neutron capture gamma cascade spectra and yields were measured in the resolved resonance region and compared to evaluations. In addition, the pulsed neutron die-away method was developed as a tool to provide data for validation of TSLs.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Discovery of multimechanisms of screw dislocation interaction in bcc iron from open-ended saddle point searches

Dislocation motion and interactions determine mechanical properties in body-centered cubic (bcc) metallic materials. However, studying mechanisms for the screw dislocation interaction is fundamentally challenging since many underlying processes involve mesotimescales and atomistic resolution, currently inaccessible by either experimental techniques or continuum theoretical methods. Here, in this paper, we develop a computational capability based on self-evolving atomistic kinetic Monte Carlo (SEAKMC) to sample the critical events and saddle point energies related to screw dislocations and their junctions. The method is first validated by calculating the stress dependence of Peierls barriers and formation energies of kink pairs and cross-slip kink pairs on a single screw dislocation in bcc iron. Then the method is applied to a binary junction of a pair of intersecting screw dislocations, the structure of which is crucial for low-temperature plastic deformation. We identify three important mechanisms: coplanar cross-slipping, jog-pinning, and a previously unknown unzipping mechanism during the evolution of the binary junction. The mechanisms are then further validated using classical molecular dynamics simulations. The computational capability developed in this paper provides an effective tool to evaluate screw dislocation related thermally activated events in complex stress conditions. The mechanisms discovered in this paper provide critical insights into temperature dependence of the anomalous slip, a breakdown of the Schmidt law, during the plastic deformation in bcc iron and can be generalized to other bcc metals.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2019

Individual Electron and Hole Mobilities in Lead-Halide Perovskites Revealed by Noncontact Methods

Charge carrier mobilities help determine semiconductor performance in optoelectronic applications, but measurement of the individual electron and hole mobilities usually involves indirect methods or probes with electrical contacts that are influenced by the quality of the interface or contact. Here, a noncontact method is introduced to distinguish the mobilities of electrons and holes by combining time-resolved terahertz spectroscopy (TRTS) and optical transient reflection (TR) spectroscopy. The validation of this method is first demonstrated on a semi-insulator GaAs wafer, and then, three lead-halide perovskite polycrystalline films with different cation mixtures are studied. We find that the hole mobility is significantly higher (~10x) than that of the electron mobility in all of the perovskite thin films studied. The highly alloyed triple cation polycrystalline film shows the highest mobility, longest bulk carrier lifetime, and lowest surface recombination velocity.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

A method for bounding high-order finite element functions: Applications to mesh validity and bounds-preserving limiters

We introduce a novel method for bounding high-order multi-dimensional polynomials in finite element approximations. The method involves precomputing optimal piecewise-linear bounding boxes for polynomial basis functions, which can then be used to locally bound any combination of these basis functions. This approach can be applied to any element/basis type at any approximation order, can provide local (i.e., subcell) extremum bounds to a desired level of accuracy, and can be evaluated efficiently on-the-fly in simulations. Furthermore, we show that this approach generally yields more accurate bounds in comparison to traditional methods based on convex hull properties (e.g., Bernstein polynomials). Furthermore, the efficacy of this technique is shown in applications such as mesh validity checks and optimization for high-order curved meshes, where positivity of the element Jacobian determinant can be ensured throughout the entire element, and continuously bounds-preserving limiters for hyperbolic systems, which can enforce maximum principle bounds across the entire solution polynomial.

Bounding box↗
DOE OSTI2026

Long-term stabilization of intensity-difference squeezing from four-wave mixing in rubidium vapor

Generation of quantum states of light through off-resonance four-wave mixing in rubidium vapor is a straightforward and well-established technique. However, achieving a sufficiently high and consistent level of intensity difference squeezing (IDS) and intrinsic quantum correlations between photon pairs over an extended timescale, necessary for quantum-light-based nonlinear optical spectroscopy and microscopy, remains challenging and largely unexplored. Here, we report a simple stabilization method combining an active periodic laser frequency retuning with an automatic control algorithm based on quantitatively assessing the factors affecting the IDS level and squeezed light intensity. Validation of our method was performed by acquiring data over a 5-hour period, and the results demonstrate a remarkably stable squeezing level of -7.8 dB in combination with a > 4× reduction of the standard deviation of IDS level from 0.46 dB to 0.10 dB. The achieved stabilization further enables us to quantitatively assess the IDS reduction due to the scattering in a polystyrene bead suspension as a function of sample transmission. Our approach should enable a variety of applications requiring an extended squeezing stability over multiple hours, especially for those following biological processes and chemical reactions in real time.

Allen, Christian Harry [Oak Ridge National Laborat↗
DOE OSTI2019

A massively-parallel, unstructured overset method to simulate moving bodies in turbulent flows

An unstructured overset method capable of performing direct numerical simulation (DNS) and large eddy simulation (LES) of many (O(10 5 )) moving bodies, utilizing many computational cores (O(10 5 )), in turbulent, incompressible fluid flow is presented. Unstructured meshes are attached to bodies and placed within a fixed background domain. Body meshes are allowed to arbitrarily overlap and move throughout the domain. Within each mesh a high resolution, unstructured, non-dissipative finite volume method is used to solve for the flow field. Boundary conditions for each mesh are provided by interpolation from flow solutions on overlapping meshes. When many unstructured meshes of different resolution overlap, care is required in the connection between the different flow solutions. An interpolant is created which seeks to preserve volume conservation of flow quantities between meshes regardless of overlapping mesh differences. An implicit fractional step method is used for time advancement, requiring the calculation of a predicted fluid velocity and corrector pressure field. For the predictor step, the resulting interpolation is directly introduced into the implicit equations for the predicted flow field. For the corrected pressure field, the continuity between meshes is weakly enforced using a penalty formulation. The pressure formulation is symmetric, positive-definite and non-singular resulting in a formulation which is readily solvable using traditional iterative matrix inversion techniques. An Arbitrary Euler-Lagrangian (ALE) method coupled to a 6 degrees of freedom rigid body equation system (6-DOF) is used for body motion. For rotation, a quaternion representation is used to solve Euler's equations of rigid body motion. A linear spring damper model, which uses geometry information readily available from the overset assembly process, is used for collisions. Validation of the method for canonical flow fields is presented including assessment of order of accuracy and kinetic energy conservation properties. Particle-resolved direct numerical simulation (PR-DNS) of single particles in various flow fields are presented for validation. PR-DNS results of 50,000 spherical particles freely moving within turbulent channel flow are shown as a demonstration of the method at full scale. LES results of a marine propeller under crashback conditions are shown to demonstrate the ability to simulate highly unsteady turbulent flows over complex, moving geometries.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Sharp front tracking with geometric interface reconstruction

Here, this paper presents a novel sharp front-tracking method designed to address limitations in classical front-tracking approaches, specifically their reliance on smooth interpolation kernels and extended stencils for coupling the front and fluid mesh. In contrast, the proposed method employs exclusively sharp, localized interpolation and spreading kernels, restricting the coupling to the interfacial fluid cells–those containing the interface/front. This localized coupling is achieved by integrating a divergence-preserving velocity interpolation method with a piecewise parabolic interface calculation (PPIC) and a polyhedron intersection algorithm to compute the indicator function and local interface curvature. Surface tension is computed using the Continuum Surface Force (CSF) method, maintaining consistency with the sharp representation. Additionally, we propose an efficient local roughness smoothing implementation to account for surface mesh undulations, which is easily applicable to any triangulated surface mesh. Building on our previous work, the primary innovation of this study lies in the localization of the coupling for both the indicator function and surface tension calculations. By reducing the interface thickness on the fluid mesh to a single cell, as opposed to the 4–5 cell spans typical in classical methods, the proposed sharp front-tracking method achieves a highly localized and accurate representation of the interface. This sharper representation mitigates parasitic currents and improves force balancing, making it particularly suitable for scenarios where the interface plays a critical role, such as microfluidics, fluid-fluid interactions, and fluid-structure interactions. The proposed method is comprehensively validated and tested on canonical interfacial flow problems, including stationary and translating Laplace equilibria, oscillating droplets, and rising bubbles. The presented results demonstrate that the sharp front-tracking method significantly outperforms the classical approach in terms of accuracy, stability, and computational efficiency. Notably, parasitic currents are reduced by approximately two orders of magnitude and stable results are obtained for parameter ranges where classical front tracking fails to converge.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

A remapping scheme for history-dependent material state variables

Here, we present an interpolation scheme for use with material models involving history-dependent state variables. The interpolation scheme is based on the solution of a constrained optimization problem, to identify the smoothest monotone curve which produces an admissible solution. Unlike classical schemes used for transport equations, the proposed methodology accounts for the interdependence of the history variables and produces admissible interpolations of the material's state variables. After introducing a general solution scheme for the problem, a simplified and more computationally efficient method is derived. Finally, as a validation problem for the proposed methods, we consider the advection of internal state variables belonging to material models with highly nonlinear yield surfaces.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2018

QMCPACK : an open source ab initio quantum Monte Carlo package for the electronic structure of atoms, molecules and solids

QMCPACK is an open source quantum Monte Carlo package for ab-initio electronic structure calculations. It supports calculations of metallic and insulating solids, molecules, atoms, and some model Hamiltonians. Implemented real space quantum Monte Carlo algorithms include variational, diffusion, and reptation Monte Carlo. QMCPACK uses Slater-Jastrow type trial wave functions in conjunction with a sophisticated optimizer capable of optimizing tens of thousands of parameters. The orbital space auxiliary field quantum Monte Carlo method is also implemented, enabling cross validation between different highly accurate methods. The code is specifically optimized for calculations with large numbers of electrons on the latest high performance computing architectures, including multicore central processing unit (CPU) and graphical processing unit (GPU) systems. We detail the program’s capabilities, outline its structure, and give examples of its use in current research calculations. The package is available at http://www.qmcpack.org.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2025

Destructive Analysis of TRISO Particles: Crush/Burn/Leach Followed by Davies-Gray Titration and IDMS

The accurate accounting of nuclear materials is a cornerstone of international nuclear safeguards. One emerging challenge in this domain is the fabrication of TRIstructural ISOtropic (TRISO) particle fuels. Although these innovative fuel forms are critical for advanced reactor applications, their robust refractory ceramics and coating compositions present significant obstacles to destructive analysis (DA) methods. Ensuring full and quantitative recovery from these particles is essential for accurate mass accountancy. The current study was initiated to address these challenges, first by validating a previously established destructive method developed by Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) for the quantitative recovery of uranium from TRISO particles and then following that process with uranium content determination through isotope dilution mass spectrometry (IDMS) and Davies-Gray titration. This study expands on the scope of a digestive method that was developed under the Advanced Gas Reactor Fuel Development and Qualification program and is currently implemented in both the Coated Particle Fuel Development Laboratory and Irradiated Fuels Examination Laboratory at ORNL. The success of the previous Advanced Gas Reactor work relied on developing a DA method to evaluate the fabrication process and reactor experiments. The methodology described in this report was designed to rigorously investigate the efficacy of the crush/burn/leach sample preparation of TRISO particles; it aims to quantify uranium recovery while also assessing the effects of TRISO constituents (e.g., silicon and zirconium) on analytical precision and accuracy. By comparing the results from the titration method and IDMS, we sought to determine whether existing analytical procedures accepted by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) could be effectively translated to TRISO fuel forms. The team employed an approach that involved processing replicate TRISO samples, optimizing the milling (i.e., crushing) step and performing serial leaches. The elemental composition of the analytical samples was examined to prepare for interference studies in the second year of this project. The integration of gamma spectrometry to verify residual uranium activity further strengthened the validation. Statistical methods were applied to the collected data to evaluate the uncertainties arising from sampling, sample preparation and uranium quantification. These uncertainties were then compared to the IAEA’s international target values (ITVs). Additional data collected in upcoming project work will strengthen the uncertainty estimates. Ultimately, it is hoped that this project will contribute materially to the body of work related to characterization of TRISO based fuels for the purpose of material accountancy and its applications to international safeguards.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Real-Time Degradation Estimation Approach for Batteries in PV and Battery Hybrid Plant Operation

Conventional cyclic degradation assessment for batteries is often limited in its ability to provide real-time degradation information during operation, because the estimation of degradation is commonly performed after a specific evaluation period. Modified methods can provide real-time evaluation but at the cost of high computation complexity. This paper proposes a novel estimation method that addresses these limitations. It efficiently determines the incremental degradation of any two consecutive state-of-charge (SOC) samples during battery operation, thus enabling real-time estimation. To validate the proposed method, measurement data from lithium-ion phosphate (LFP) battery testing was adopted, and the results were compared with the conventional model and the measured capacity. The results demonstrate accuracy over the evaluation period in terms of cumulative degradation, and a reduced computation cost compared with other methods. This approach has benefits in various applications, especially in cases where batteries experience irregular charging and discharging stress cycles such as PV and battery hybrid plants.

Wang, Shumeng↗
DOE OSTI2017

Hybrid Gamma Emission Tomography for the Verification of Unirradiated Fuel: A Viability Study

Current International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) methodologies for the verification of fresh low-enriched uranium (LEU) and mixed oxide (MOX) fuel assemblies are volume-averaging methods that lack sensitivity to individual pins. Further, as unirradiated fuel assemblies become more and more complex (e.g., heavy gadolinium loading, high degrees of axial and radial variation in fissile concentration), the accuracy of current IAEA instruments degrades and measurement time increases. Particularly in light of the fact that no special tooling is required to remove individual pins from modern fuel assemblies, new capabilities for the verification of unirradiated (i.e., fresh LEU and MOX) assemblies are needed to ensure that fissile material has not been diverted. Passive gamma emission tomography has demonstrated potential to provide pin-level verification of spent fuel, but gamma-ray emission rates from unirradiated fuel emissions are significantly lower, precluding purely passive tomography methods. The work presented here introduces the concept of Hybrid Gamma Emission Tomography (HGET) for verification of unirradiated fuels, in which a neutron source is used to actively interrogate the fuel assembly and the resulting gamma-ray emissions are imaged using tomographic methods to provide pin-level verification of fissile material concentration. This paper describes the status of a viability study on the HGET concept, including: envisioned use-case scenarios and corresponding definitions of fuel assemblies; modeling framework based on Monte Carlo and deterministic transport methods, and its validation; quantitative assessment of candidate HGET signatures with a focus on prompt fission gamma rays and delayed fission gamma rays; a nominal HGETv1 instrument design; candidate HGET-specific tomographic reconstruction methods that fully incorporate declared information; and examples of simulation-based predictions of HGET performance.

Miller, Erin A.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Validation of earthquake ground-motion models in southern California, USA, using precariously balanced rocks

Accurate estimates of earthquake ground shaking rely on uncertain ground-motion models derived from limited instrumental recordings of historical earthquakes. A critical issue is that there is currently no method to empirically validate the resultant ground-motion estimates of these models at the timescale of rare, large earthquakes; this lack of validation causes great uncertainty in ground-motion estimates. Here, we address this issue and validate ground-motion estimates for southern California utilizing the unexceeded ground motions recorded by 20 precariously balanced rocks. We used cosmogenic 10Be exposure dating to model the age of the precariously balanced rocks, which ranged from ca. 1 ka to ca. 50 ka, and calculated their probability of toppling at different ground-motion levels. With this rock data, we then validated the earthquake ground motions estimated by the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3 (UCERF3) seismic-source characterization and the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA)-West2 ground-motion models. We found that no ground-motion model estimated levels of earthquake ground shaking consistent with the observed continued existence of all 20 precariously balanced rocks. The ground-motion model I14 estimated ground-motion levels that were inconsistent with the most rocks; therefore, I14 was invalidated and removed. At a 2475 year mean return period, the removal of this invalid ground-motion model resulted in a 2−7% reduction in the mean and a 10−36% reduction in the 5th−95th fractile uncertainty of the ground-motion estimates. Our findings demonstrate the value of empirical data from precariously balanced rocks as a validation tool for removing invalid ground-motion models and, in turn, reducing the uncertainty in earthquake ground-motion estimates.

Geology↗