A new approach to the analysis of linear models
Improved approach to analysis of linear models based on assumed mean and variance of population
Speed, F. M.↗
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Results for “Analysis of Variance”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Earth-based observations of Martian albedo changes
The large-scale albedo features of Mars, as observed with Earth-based telescopes, undergo secular changes, cyclic seasonal changes, seemingly random day-to-day changes, and cyclic diurnal changes. The suspension or redistribution of dust may be involved in all four. Some of the recent findings, based on extensive new Earth-based data, are at variance with classical ideas. Current methods of observation and analysis need to be pursued until all Martian seasons have been equally sampled.
Baum, W. A.↗
Analyses of mean and turbulent motion in the tropics with the use of unequally spaced data
Wind velocities from 25 km to 60 km over Ascension Island, Fort Sherman and Kwajalein for the period January 1970 to December 1971 are analyzed in order to achieve a better understanding of the mean flow, the eddy kinetic energy and the Eulerian time spectra of the eddy kinetic energy. Since the data are unequally spaced in time, techniques of one-dimensional covariance theory were utilized and an unequally spaced time series analysis was accomplished. The theoretical equations for two-dimensional analysis or wavenumber frequency analysis of unequally spaced data were developed. Analysis of the turbulent winds and the average seasonal variance and eddy kinetic energy of the turbulent winds indicated that maximum total variance and energy is associated with the east-west velocity component. This is particularly true for long period seasonal waves which dominate the total energy spectrum. Additionally, there is an energy shift for the east-west component into the longer period waves with altitude increasing from 30 km to 50 km.
Kao, S. K.↗
Long-Term Global Morphology of Gravity Wave Activity Using UARS Data
This is the first quarter's report on research to extract global gravity-wave data from satellite data and to model those observations synoptically. Preliminary analysis of global maps of extracted middle atmospheric temperature variance from the CRISTA instrument is presented, which appear to contain gravity-wave information. Corresponding simulations of global gravity-wave and mountain-wave activity during this mission period are described using global ray-tracing and mountain-wave models, and interesting similarities among simulated data and CRISTA data are noted. Climatological simulations of mesospheric gravity-wave activity using the HWM-03 wind-temperature climatology are also reported, for comparison with UARS MLS data. Preparatory work on modeling of gravity wave observations from space-based platforms and subsequent interpretation of the MLS gravity-wave product are also described. Preliminary interpretation and relation to the research objectives are provided, and further action for the next quarter's research is recommended.
Eckermann, Stephen D.↗
Advanced Electrocardiography Can Identify Occult Cardiomyopathy in Doberman Pinschers
Recently, multiple advanced resting electrocardiographic (A-ECG) techniques have improved the diagnostic value of short-duration ECG in detection of dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) in humans. This study investigated whether 12-lead A-ECG recordings could accurately identify the occult phase of DCM in dogs. Short-duration (3-5 min) high-fidelity 12-lead ECG recordings were obtained from 31 privately-owned, clinically healthy Doberman Pinschers (5.4 +/- 1.7 years, 11/20 males/females). Dogs were divided into 2 groups: 1) 19 healthy dogs with normal echocardiographic M-mode measurements: left ventricular internal diameter in diastole (LVIDd . 47mm) and in systole (LVIDs . 38mm) and normal 24-hour ECG recordings (<50 ventricular premature complexes, VPCs); and 2) 12 dogs with occult DCM: 11/12 dogs had increased M-mode measurements (LVIDd . 49mm and/or LVIDs . 40mm) and 5/11 dogs had also >100 VPCs/24h; 1/12 dogs had only abnormal 24-hour ECG recordings (>100 VPCs/24h). ECG recordings were evaluated via custom software programs to calculate multiple parameters of high-frequency (HF) QRS ECG, heart rate variability, QT variability, waveform complexity and 3-D ECG. Student's t-tests determined 19 ECG parameters that were significantly different (P < 0.05) between groups. Principal component factor analysis identified a 5-factor model with 81.4% explained variance. QRS dipolar and non-dipolar voltages, Cornell voltage criteria and QRS waveform residuum were increased significantly (P < 0.05), whereas mean HF QRS amplitude was decreased significantly (P < 0.05) in dogs with occult DCM. For the 5 selected parameters the prediction of occult DCM was performed using a binary logistic regression model with Chi-square tested significance (P < 0.01). ROC analyses showed that the five selected ECG parameters could identify occult ECG with sensitivity 89% and specificity 83%. Results suggest that 12-lead A-ECG might improve diagnostic value of short-duration ECG in earlier detection of canine DCM as five selected ECG parameters can with reasonable accuracy identify occult DCM in Doberman Pinschers. Future extensive clinical studies need to clarify if 12-lead A-ECG could be useful as an additional screening test for canine DCM.
Spiljak, M.↗
FIGS: spectral fitting constraints on the star formation history of massive galaxies since the cosmic noon
We constrain the stellar population properties of a sample of 52 massive galaxies – with stellar mass log (M(s)/M(⊙)) ≳ 10.5 – over the redshift range 0.5 < z < 2 by use of observer-frame optical and near-infrared slitless spectra from Hubble Space Telescope’s ACS and WFC3 grisms. The deep exposures (∼100 ks) allow us to target individual spectra of massive galaxies to F160W = 22.5 AB. Our spectral fitting approach uses a set of six base models adapted to the redshift and spectral resolution of each observation, and fits the weights of the base models, including potential dust attenuation, via a Markov Chain Monte Carlo method. Our sample comprises a mixed distribution of quiescent (19) and star-forming galaxies (33). We quantify the width of the age distribution (Δt) that is found to dominate the variance of the retrieved parameters according to principal component analysis. The population parameters follow the expected trend towards older ages with increasing mass, and Δt appears to weakly anticorrelate with stellar mass, suggesting a more efficient star formation at the massive end. As expected, the redshift dependence of the relative stellar age (measured in units of the age of the Universe at the source) in the quiescent sample rejects the hypothesis of a single burst (aka monolithic collapse). Radial colour gradients within each galaxy are also explored, finding a wider scatter in the star-forming subsample, but no conclusive trend with respect to the population parameters.
Ignacio Ferreras↗
Objective determination of image end-members in spectral mixture analysis of AVIRIS data
Spectral mixture analysis has been shown to be a powerful, multifaceted tool for analysis of multi- and hyper-spectral data. Applications of AVIRIS data have ranged from mapping soils and bedrock to ecosystem studies. During the first phase of the approach, a set of end-members are selected from an image cube (image end-members) that best account for its spectral variance within a constrained, linear least squares mixing model. These image end-members are usually selected using a priori knowledge and successive trial and error solutions to refine the total number and physical location of the end-members. However, in many situations a more objective method of determining these essential components is desired. We approach the problem of image end-member determination objectively by using the inherent variance of the data. Unlike purely statistical methods such as factor analysis, this approach derives solutions that conform to a physically realistic model.
Tompkins, Stefanie↗
The meandering Gulf Stream as seen by the Geosat altimeter - Surface transport, position, and velocity variance from 73 deg to 46 deg W
Results are presented of an analysis of the surface geostrophic velocity field for the Gulf Stream region for the position, structure, and surface transport of the Gulf Stream for 2.5 yr of the Geosat altimeter Exact Repeat Mission. Synthetic data using a Gaussian velocity profile were generated and fit to the sea surface residual heights to create a synthetic mean sea surface height field and profiles of absolute geostrophic currents. An analysis of the model parameters and the actual geostrophic velocity profiles revealed two different flow regimes for the Gulf Stream connected by a narrow transition region coincident with the New England Seamount Chain. The upstream region was found to exhibit relatively straight Gulf Stream paths, long Eulerian time scales, and eastward propagating meanders. The downstream region had more large meanders, no consistent propagation direction, and shorter Eulerian time scales. A 25-percent reduction in surface transport occurred in the transition region, with a corresponding reduction in current speed and no change in Gulf Stream width.
Kelly, Kathryn A.↗
Southern Idaho Ecological Conservation: Investigating the Impact of Targeted Grazing to Improve Wetland Habitat in the Sterling Wildlife Management Area
Wetland ecosystems are vital for biodiversity conservation and ecosystem services. The Sterling Wildlife Management Area in Bingham County, Idaho, has management concerns about decadent and accumulated vegetation growth encroaching on wetland habitat, which presents challenges for wildlife, decreases biodiversity, and limits public access. Targeted grazing has been proposed as a sustainable alternative to chemical herbicides or burning. Land managers introduced targeted cattle grazing in January 2021 to reduce biomass. NASA DEVELOP partnered with the Idaho Department of Fish and Game to determine the impact of grazing using NASA Earth observations from Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) in Google Earth Engine (GEE). Images were processed with TerrSet’s Land Change Modeler and ArcGIS Pro’s Change Detection Wizard to understand land changes following grazing. A Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) analysis was performed to assess impacts on vegetation productivity and compare variance in biomass before and after grazing. A Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI) was used to compare changes in the wetland and its vegetation content to evaluate the suitability of the area for migratory birds post-grazing. Results showed a decrease in the vegetation index and an increase in the water index postgrazing. The DEVELOP team’s analysis suggests that grazing helps break down thick, senesced vegetation and increase soil moisture. Providing a workflow model will aid partners in continuing to monitor this management area and other management areas across the state.
change detection↗
Modality-Driven Classification and Visualization of Ensemble Variance
Paper for the IEEE Visualization Conference Advances in computational power now enable domain scientists to address conceptual and parametric uncertainty by running simulations multiple times in order to sufficiently sample the uncertain input space.
Bensema, Kevin↗
Reconstruction of signals with unknown spectra in information field theory with parameter uncertainty
The optimal reconstruction of cosmic metric perturbations and other signals requires knowledge of their power spectra and other parameters. If these are not known a priori, they have to be measured simultaneously from the same data used for the signal reconstruction. We formulate the general problem of signal inference in the presence of unknown parameters within the framework of information field theory. To solve this, we develop a generic parameter-uncertainty renormalized estimation (PURE) technique. As a concrete application, we address the problem of reconstructing Gaussian signals with unknown power-spectrum with five different approaches: (i) separate maximum-a-posteriori power-spectrum measurement and subsequent reconstruction, (ii) maximum-a-posteriori reconstruction with marginalized power-spectrum, (iii) maximizing the joint posterior of signal and spectrum, (iv) guessing the spectrum from the variance in the Wiener-filter map, and (v) renormalization flow analysis of the field-theoretical problem providing the PURE filter. In all cases, the reconstruction can be described or approximated as Wiener-filter operations with assumed signal spectra derived from the data according to the same recipe, but with differing coefficients. All of these filters, except the renormalized one, exhibit a perception threshold in case of a Jeffreys prior for the unknown spectrum. Data modes with variance below this threshold do not affect the signal reconstruction at all. Filter (iv) seems to be similar to the so-called Karhune-Loeve and Feldman-Kaiser-Peacock estimators for galaxy power spectra used in cosmology, which therefore should also exhibit a marginal perception threshold if correctly implemented. We present statistical performance tests and show that the PURE filter is superior to the others, especially if the post-Wiener-filter corrections are included or in case an additional scale-independent spectral smoothness prior can be adopted.
71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
Risk Importance Ranking of Fire Data Parameters to Enhance Fire PRA Model Realism
Fire is historically and analytically a significant contributor to nuclear power plant risk. The level of fire risk and the methods, tools and data for modeling this risk is highly debated by experts. One area of debate is the input data used in fire modeling and how to deal with this data’s high uncertainty. This report outlines initial work performed for determining the key parameters causing this uncertainty and how it propagates into nuclear power plant models. This research paves the way for the development of methods to reduce fire data uncertainty used in modeling. The Nuclear Regulatory Commission has mandated that nuclear power plants perform fire risk modeling. However, there are several issues with the current risk modeling implementation that affect the results. Approved modeling methods can be overly conservative and often do not match plant experience. Also, the data used in the modeling can have high uncertainties and is influenced by expert judgement. To evaluate input data uncertainty, researchers performed an initial review of several fire experiments done at Sandia National Laboratories. Uncertainties for fire data can come from many sources, such as experiment design constraints, environmental conditions, or other plant-specific aspects. There are many different significant and insignificant parameters driving the uncertainty. Additionally, the uncertainty of the different input data used in the fire modeling could have a significant or insignificant effect on the entire plant risk. A four-step methodology was developed to perform Integrated Probabilistic Risk Assessment Importance Ranking. A demonstration case using these steps was set up and three of the four steps were completed in fiscal year (FY) 2019 and the fourth step done FY 2020. These steps are: 1. The qualitative analysis of potential sources was conducted with the following items identified for the demonstration. • Maximum heat release rate • Time to maximum heat release rate • Duration of max heat release rate • Time to decay • Thermal conductivity of concrete • Specific heat of concrete • Density of concrete • Cable jacket thickness 2. A quantitative characterization of dominant sources of uncertainty was performed. A list of distributions and determined values of the dominant sources is shown in Appendix A. 3. A quantitative screening of the potential sources of uncertainty using Morris Elementary Effects Analysis was completed. An experimental model using the physics-based fire modeling tool Fire Dynamics Simulator was developed and coupled with the Risk Analysis Virtual Environment. The Morris analysis identified at least two parameters that can be eliminated as significant contributors (specific heat of concrete and cable jacket thickness). 4. Global importance measure (Global IM) analysis to generate a comprehensive ranking based on their influence on the plant risk. In this research, a moment-independent Global IM is used since it can address (a) uncertainty in the input parameters of the fire model, (b) uncertainty in the risk outputs, and (c) non-linearity and interactions among input parameters in the fire model, more accurately than the correlation-based and variance-based global methods. The observations from the research showed that, depending on the initial and boundary conditions of the fire scenarios, fire-induced damage could have a very small probability and could be dominated by the tail of the uncertainty distribution; hence, the accuracy of the correlation-based and variance-based methods is questionable. The moment-independent Global IM analysis in this research provides a better understanding of how experimental uncertainty data affects industry’s plant models and where improvements in that data will have the largest benefit for improving fire modeling accuracy in causing core damage. Among the five unscreened parameters obtained from the Morris EE analysis, the Global IM analysis results for the case study indicated that max heat release rate and fire location are the most important parameters. The report also outlines benefits of using a unified computational platform that integrates the underlying simulations (e.g., a fire progression model), quantitative screening (using the Morris EE method), and the Global IM analysis. A unified platform can (i) facilitate the ranking of input parameters considering multiple key fire scenarios simultaneously, rather than considering one scenario at a time, (ii) contribute to more explicit and accurate treatment of dependencies at multiple levels of Fire PRA, (iii) facilitate the sampling-based uncertainty quantification for Fire PRA, and (iv) help generating both “industry-wide” and "plant-specific" ranking of uncertainty sources in Fire PRA. Future research should be done to include additional parameters such as detection/suppression or cable fire spread. Adding a PRA software such as SAPHIRE to the RAVEN platform would help with plant model integration and improve treatment of fire-induced dependency. The I-PRA risk importance ranking methodology offered in this report can provide valuable information for efficiently (a) enhancing the realism of Fire PRA for existing plants and (b) supporting the development of Dynamic Fire PRA for advanced reactors and new plants.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Horizontal Wavenumber Spectra of Winds, Temperature and Trace Gases During the Pacific Exploratory Missions: Gravity Waves, Quasi-Two-Dimensional Turbulence, and Vortical Modes - 2
We examine the horizontal wavenumber spectra of horizontal velocity and potential temperature collected by aircraft above the Pacific Ocean to determine whether gravity waves, quasi-two-dimensional (Q-2-D) turbulence, or vortical modes dominate atmospheric fluctuations at scale sizes of 1-100 km and altitudes of 2-12 km. We conclude from the study of Doppler-shifting effects that Q-2-D turbulence and/or vortical modes are more prevalent than gravity waves over the ocean, except in the equatorial zone. The results are consistent with recent numerical simulations of Q-2-D turbulence, which show that the characteristic inverse cascade of energy is greatly facilitated by the presence of background rotation. Furthermore, a Stokes-parameter analysis reveals the general paucity of coherent wavelike motions, although specific cases of gravity-wave propagation are observed. Finally, a case study of a long flight segment displays a k(sup -3) horizontal velocity variance spectrum at scales longer than about 100 km. A Stokes-parameter analysis indicates that these large-scale fluctuations were likely due to vortical modes rather than inertio-gravity waves.
Cho, John Y. N.↗
SCALE Code System 6.2.1
The SCALE Code System is a widely-used modeling and simulation suite for nuclear safety analysis and design that is developed, maintained, tested, and managed by the Reactor and Nuclear Systems Division (RNSD) of Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). SCALE provides a comprehensive, verified and validated, user-friendly tool set for criticality safety, reactor and lattice physics, radiation shielding, spent fuel and radioactive source term characterization, and sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. Since 1980, regulators, licensees, and research institutions around the world have used SCALE for safety analysis and design. SCALE provides an integrated framework with dozens of computational modules including three deterministic and three Monte Carlo radiation transport solvers that are selected based on the desired solution strategy. SCALE includes current nuclear data libraries and problem-dependent processing tools for continuous-energy (CE) and multigroup (MG) neutronics and coupled neutron-gamma calculations, as well as activation, depletion, and decay calculations. SCALE includes unique capabilities for automated variance reduction for shielding calculations, as well as sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. SCALE’s graphical user interfaces assist with accurate system modeling, visualization of nuclear data, and convenient access to desired results.
22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
SCALE Code System 6.2.2
The SCALE Code System is a widely used modeling and simulation suite for nuclear safety analysis and design that is developed, maintained, tested, and managed by the Reactor and Nuclear Systems Division (RNSD) of Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). SCALE provides a comprehensive, verified and validated, user-friendly tool set for criticality safety, reactor physics, radiation shielding, radioactive source term characterization, and sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. Since 1980, regulators, licensees, and research institutions around the world have used SCALE for safety analysis and design. SCALE provides an integrated framework with dozens of computational modules including 3 deterministic and 3 Monte Carlo radiation transport solvers that are selected based on the desired solution strategy. SCALE includes current nuclear data libraries and problem-dependent processing tools for continuous-energy (CE) and multigroup (MG) neutronics and coupled neutron-gamma calculations, as well as activation, depletion, and decay calculations. SCALE includes unique capabilities for automated variance reduction for shielding calculations, as well as sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. SCALE’s graphical user interfaces assist with accurate system modeling, visualization of nuclear data, and convenient access to desired results. SCALE 6.2 represents one of the most comprehensive revisions in the history of SCALE, providing several new capabilities and significant improvements in many existing features.
21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
SCALE Code System
The SCALE Code System is a widely-used modeling and simulation suite for nuclear safety analysis and design that is developed, maintained, tested, and managed by the Reactor and Nuclear Systems Division (RNSD) of Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). SCALE provides a comprehensive, verified and validated, user-friendly tool set for criticality safety, reactor and lattice physics, radiation shielding, spent fuel and radioactive source term characterization, and sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. Since 1980, regulators, licensees, and research institutions around the world have used SCALE for safety analysis and design. SCALE provides an integrated framework with dozens of computational modules including three deterministic and three Monte Carlo radiation transport solvers that are selected based on the desired solution strategy. SCALE includes current nuclear data libraries and problem-dependent processing tools for continuous-energy (CE) and multigroup (MG) neutronics and coupled neutron-gamma calculations, as well as activation, depletion, and decay calculations. SCALE includes unique capabilities for automated variance reduction for shielding calculations, as well as sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. SCALE’s graphical user interfaces assist with accurate system modeling, visualization of nuclear data, and convenient access to desired results.SCALE 6.2 provides many new capabilities and significant improvements of existing features.New capabilities include:• ENDF/B-VII.1 nuclear data libraries CE and MG with enhanced group structures,• Neutron covariance data based on ENDF/B-VII.1 and supplemented with ORNL data,• Covariance data for fission product yields and decay constants,• Stochastic uncertainty and correlation quantification for any SCALE sequence with Sampler,• Parallel calculations with KENO,• Problem-dependent temperature corrections for CE calculations,• CE shielding and criticality accident alarm system analysis with MAVRIC,• CE depletion with TRITON (T5-DEPL/T6-DEPL),• CE sensitivity/uncertainty analysis with TSUNAMI-3D,• Simplified and efficient LWR lattice physics with Polaris,• Large scale detailed spent fuel characterization with ORIGAMI and ORIGAMI Automator,• Advanced fission source convergence acceleration capabilities with Sourcerer,• Nuclear data library generation with AMPX, and• Integrated user interface with Fulcrum.Enhanced capabilities include:• Accurate and efficient CE Monte Carlo methods for eigenvalue and fixed source calculations,• Improved MG resonance self-shielding methodologies and data,• Resonance self-shielding with modernized and efficient XSProc integrated into most sequences,• Accelerated calculations with TRITON/NEWT (generally 4x faster than SCALE 6.1),• Spent fuel characterization with 1470 new reactor-specific libraries for ORIGEN,• Modernization of ORIGEN (Chebyshev Rational Approximation Method [CRAM] solver, API for high-performance depletion, new keyword input format)• Extension of the maximum mixture number to values well beyond the previous limit of 2147 to ~2 billion,• Nuclear data formats enabling the use of more than 999 energy groups,• Updated standard composition library to provide more accurate use of natural abundances, andvi• Numerous other enhancements for improved usability and stability.
98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
SCALE Code System
The SCALE Code System is a widely-used modeling and simulation suite for nuclear safety analysis and design that is developed, maintained, tested, and managed by the Reactor and Nuclear Systems Division (RNSD) of Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). SCALE provides a comprehensive, verified and validated, user-friendly tool set for criticality safety, reactor and lattice physics, radiation shielding, spent fuel and radioactive source term characterization, and sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. Since 1980, regulators, licensees, and research institutions around the world have used SCALE for safety analysis and design. SCALE provides an integrated framework with dozens of computational modules including three deterministic and three Monte Carlo radiation transport solvers that are selected based on the desired solution strategy. SCALE includes current nuclear data libraries and problem-dependent processing tools for continuous-energy (CE) and multigroup (MG) neutronics and coupled neutron-gamma calculations, as well as activation, depletion, and decay calculations. SCALE includes unique capabilities for automated variance reduction for shielding calculations, as well as sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. SCALE’s graphical user interfaces assist with accurate system modeling, visualization of nuclear data, and convenient access to desired results.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
SCALE Code System
The SCALE Code System is a widely used modeling and simulation suite for nuclear safety analysis and design that is developed, maintained, tested, and managed by the Reactor and Nuclear Systems Division (RNSD) of Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). SCALE provides a comprehensive, verified and validated, user-friendly tool set for criticality safety, reactor and lattice physics, radiation shielding, spent fuel and radioactive source term characterization, and sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. Since 1980, regulators, licensees, and research institutions around the world have used SCALE for safety analysis and design. SCALE provides an integrated framework with dozens of computational modules, including three deterministic and three Monte Carlo radiation transport solvers that are selected based on the desired solution strategy. SCALE includes current nuclear data libraries and problem-dependent processing tools for continuous-energy (CE) and multigroup (MG) neutronics and coupled neutron-gamma calculations, as well as activation, depletion, and decay calculations. SCALE includes unique capabilities for automated variance reduction for shielding calculations, as well as sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. SCALE’s graphical user interfaces assist with accurate system modeling, visualization of nuclear data, and convenient access to desired results.
11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗