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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 775 records · Page 43
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Thermal analyses of high-power advanced thermoacoustic radioisotope power system for future space exploration missions

This paper presents the results of 3-D thermal analyses of the heat source assembly of a 440 We advanced radioisotope power system (RPS) for future space exploration missions. This high thermal efficiency RPS employs a heat source assembly of eight Step 2 General Purpose Heat Source (GPHS) modules and four Thermoacoustic Power Converter (TAPC) units. Each unit is thermally coupled to two GPHS modules. Here, the analyses investigated the temperatures of the Iridium (Ir) alloy cladding of the 238 PuO 2 fuel pellets and the surface of the Fine Weave Pierced Fabric (FWPF) aeroshell in the GPHS modules to ensure reliable operation and safety in case of an unlikely reentry. Conductive coupling of the GPHS modules to the heater heads of the TAPC units produces relatively uniform axial and azimuthal distributions of heat flux and temperature. However, for this case the temperature of the Ir alloy cladding is lower than the desired values of 1173 K to maintain sufficient ductility. Adding a 5 mm wide He filled gap and decreasing the thickness of the graphite sleeve to 10 mm increased Ir cladding temperature to 1197–1174 K, which are in the desired range. The maximum surface temperatures of the FWPF graphite aeroshell of 1022–1131 K is well below the NASA specified limit of 1373 K. In addition, the total mass of the heat source assembly decreased by 19.6 kg, ~43% saving compared to original design.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2015

THE GRISM LENS-AMPLIFIED SURVEY FROM SPACE (GLASS). IV. MASS RECONSTRUCTION OF THE LENSING CLUSTER ABELL 2744 FROM FRONTIER FIELD IMAGING AND GLASS SPECTROSCOPY

We present a strong and weak lensing reconstruction of the massive cluster Abell 2744, the first cluster for which deep Hubble Frontier Fields (HFF) images and spectroscopy from the Grism Lens-Amplified Survey from Space (GLASS) are available. By performing a targeted search for emission lines in multiply imaged sources using the GLASS spectra, we obtain five high-confidence spectroscopic redshifts and two tentative ones. We confirm one strongly lensed system by detecting the same emission lines in all three multiple images. We also search for additional line emitters blindly and use the full GLASS spectroscopic catalog to test reliability of photometric redshifts for faint line emitters. We see a reasonable agreement between our photometric and spectroscopic redshift measurements, when including nebular emission in photometric redshift estimations. We introduce a stringent procedure to identify only secure multiple image sets based on colors, morphology, and spectroscopy. By combining 7 multiple image systems with secure spectroscopic redshifts (at 5 distinct redshift planes) with 18 multiple image systems with secure photometric redshifts, we reconstruct the gravitational potential of the cluster pixellated on an adaptive grid, using a total of 72 images. The resulting mass map is compared with a stellar mass map obtained from the deep Spitzer Frontier Fields data to study the relative distribution of stars and dark matter in the cluster. We find that the stellar to total mass ratio varies substantially across the cluster field, suggesting that stars do not trace exactly the total mass in this interacting system. The maps of convergence, shear, and magnification are made available in the standard HFF format.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Bayesian reduced-order deep learning surrogate model for dynamic systems described by partial differential equations

We propose a reduced-order deep-learning surrogate model for dynamic systems described by time-dependent partial differential equations. This method employs space–time Karhunen–Loève expansions (KLEs) of the state variables and space-dependent KLEs of space-varying parameters to identify the reduced (latent) dimensions. Subsequently, a deep neural network (DNN) is used to map the parameter latent space to the state variable latent space. An approximate Bayesian method is developed for uncertainty quantification (UQ) in the proposed KL-DNN surrogate model. The KL-DNN method is tested for the linear advection–diffusion and nonlinear diffusion equations, and the Bayesian approach for UQ is compared with the deep ensembling (DE) approach, commonly used for quantifying uncertainty in DNN models. It was found that the approximate Bayesian method provides a more informative distribution of the PDE solutions in terms of the coverage of the reference PDE solutions (the percentage of nodes where the reference solution is within the confidence interval predicted by the UQ methods) and log predictive probability. The DE method is found to underestimate uncertainty and introduce bias. For the nonlinear diffusion equation, we compare the KL-DNN method with the Fourier Neural Operator (FNO) method and find that KL-DNN is 10% more accurate and needs less training time than the FNO method.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

MixPI: Mixed-time slicing path integral software for quantized molecular dynamics simulations

We introduce the MixPI software to implement path integral molecular dynamics (PIMD) simulations for the study of condensed phase systems where nuclear quantum effects (NQEs) are important. In contrast to existing PIMD simulation software, MixPI enables the implementation of mixed quantum–classical path integral simulations where only a subset of system degrees of freedom (dofs) are treated quantum mechanically in an extended phase space while the remaining dofs are described classically. We expect this software to be particularly useful for simulations of electron and proton transfer in condensed phase systems, as well as for the study of biological and material systems where only a handful of dofs contribute significantly to the observed NQEs. We demonstrate the use of MixPI in two different systems. The first is a simple water model where we implement a set of mixed quantum–classical simulations to compute average energy and radial distribution functions. We use these simulations to benchmark the effectiveness of MixPI and to demonstrate how it enables systematic investigation into the origin of observed NQEs. We then compute radial distribution functions for a system where MixPI is essential: a solvated metal (M 2+ ) cation described using an explicit quantized electron localized on an M 3+ ion in water.

chemical physics↗
DOE OSTI2017

Langevin model of low-energy fission

Since the earliest days of fission, stochastic models have been used to describe and model the process. For a quarter century, numerical solutions of Langevin equations have been used to model fission of highly excited nuclei, where microscopic potential-energy effects have been neglected. In this paper I present a Langevin model for the fission of nuclei with low to medium excitation energies, for which microscopic effects in the potential energy cannot be ignored. I solve Langevin equations in a five-dimensional space of nuclear deformations. The macroscopic-microscopic potential energy from a global nuclear structure model well benchmarked to nuclear masses is tabulated on a mesh of approximately 10 7 points in this deformation space. The potential is defined continuously inside the mesh boundaries by use of a moving five-dimensional cubic spline approximation. Because of reflection symmetry, the effective mesh is nearly twice this size. For the inertia, I use a (possibly scaled) approximation to the inertia tensor defined by irrotational flow. A phenomenological dissipation tensor related to one-body dissipation is used. A normal-mode analysis of the dynamical system at the saddle point and the assumption of quasiequilibrium provide distributions of initial conditions appropriate to low excitation energies, and are extended to model spontaneous fission. A dynamical model of postscission fragment motion including dynamical deformations and separation allows the calculation of final mass and kinetic-energy distributions, along with other interesting quantities. The model makes quantitative predictions for fragment mass and kinetic-energy yields, some of which are very close to measured ones. Varying the energy of the incident neutron for induced fission allows the prediction of energy dependencies of fragment yields and average kinetic energies. With a simple approximation for spontaneous fission starting conditions, quantitative predictions are made for some observables which are close to measurements. In conclusion, this model is able to reproduce several mass and energy yield observables with a small number of physical parameters, some of which do not need to be varied after benchmarking to 235 U (n, f) to predict results for other fissioning isotopes.

233U↗
DOE OSTI2024

Exploring the benefits of using co-packaged optics in data center and AI supercomputer networks: a simulation-based analysis [Invited]

We investigate the advantages of using co-packaged optics in next-generation data center and AI supercomputer networks. The increased escape bandwidth offered by co-packaged optics provides multiple possibilities for building 50T switches and beyond, expanding the opportunities in both the data center and supercomputing domains. Furthermore, this provides network architects with the opportunity to expand their design space and develop simplified networks with enhanced network locality properties. Co-packaging at the switch and server points enables networks with double capacity while reducing the switch count by 64% compared to state-of-the-art systems. We evaluate these concepts through discrete-event simulations using all-to-all and all-reduce traffic patterns that simulate collective communications commonly found in network-bound applications. Initially, we investigate the all-to-all overhead involved in distributing the virtual machines of the applications across multiple leaf switches and compare it to the scenario in which all VMs are placed under a single switch. Subsequently, we evaluate the performance of an AI supercomputing cluster by simulating both patterns for different message sizes, while also varying the number of participating nodes. The results suggest that networks with improved locality properties become increasingly important as the network stack operates at higher speeds; for a stack latency of 1.25 µs, placing the applications under multiple switches can result in up to 68% higher completion times than placing them under a single switch. For AI supercomputers, significant improvements are observed in the mean server throughput, reaching more than 90% for configurations involving 256 nodes and message sizes of at least 128 KiB.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Packet Capture Solutions: PcapDB Benchmark for High-Bandwidth Capture, Storage, and Searching

PcapDB stands alone when looking at the overall field of competitors, from the cost-effective COTS hardware, to the efficient utilization of disk space that enables a longer packet history. A scalable, 100GbE-enabled system that indexes every packet and indexes flow data without complicated load-balancing requirements. The Transport Layer search and indexing approach led to patent-pending flow indexing technology, providing a specialized database system specifically optimized around providing fast flow searches. While there are a plethora of options in network packet capture, there are very few that are able to effectively manage capture rates of more than 10 Gb/s, distributed capture and querying, and a responsive user interface. By far, the primary competitor in the market place is Endace and DeepSee; in addition to meeting the technical requirements we set out in this document, they provide technical support and a fully 'appliance like' system. In terms of cost, however, our experience has been that the yearly maintenance charges alone outstrip the entire hardware cost of solutions like PcapDB. Investment in cyber security research and development is a large part of what has enabled us to build the base of knowlegable workers needed to defend government resources in the rapidly evolving cyber security landscape. We believe projects like Bro, WireCap, and Farm do more than just fill temporary gaps in our capabilities. They give allow us to build the firm foundation needed to tackle the next generation of cyber challenges. PcapDB was built with loftier ambitions than simply solving the packet capture of a single lab site, but instead to provide a robust, scaleable packet capture solution to the DOE complex and beyond.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Updates to the Hanford Soil Inventory Model (SIM Version 2) for FY 2023

The purpose of this environmental calculation file (ECF) is to document the updates made to the Soil Inventory Model version 2.1 (SIM-v2.1) (ECF-HANFORD-21-0073, Updates to the Hanford Soil Inventory Model (SIM Version 2) for FY 2021) in FY 2023. These updates to SIM-v2.1 are referred to as the SIM-v2.2 version. The following updates have been made: • Include inventory estimate for a new analyte • hexavalent chromium (Cr(VI)), separate from total chromium inventory • Revise the inventory discharged to the 216-U-10 and 216-T-4 Pond systems based on partitioning of waste streams discharges over time and space among influent ditches and ponds • Enhance the preprocessing and postprocessing of the input and output files Note that the methodology for estimating Cr(VI) inventories is based on ECF-200W-23-0040, Recommendations for Updating Liquid Discharged Inventory and Transport Modeling Parameters for Cumulative Impacts Evaluation of Hexavalent Chromium in the 200 West Area while the revision of inventory discharged to the 216-U-10 and 216-T-4 Pond systems is based on ECF-HANFORD-19-0032, Distribution of Infiltration in the 216-U-10, 216-B-3 Pond, and 216-T-4 Pond Systems 1944-1997.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Optimizing for Large Planar Fractures in Multistage Horizontal Wells in Enhanced Geothermal Systems Using a Coupled Fluid and Geomechanics Simulator

Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) could potentially use technological advancements in coupled implementation of horizontal drilling and multistage hydraulic fracturing techniques in tight oil and shale gas reservoirs along with improvements in reservoir simulation techniques to design and create EGS reservoirs. In this study, a commercial hydraulic fracture simulation package, Mangrove by Schlumberger, was used in an EGS model with largely distributed pre-existing natural fractures to model fracture propagation during the creation of a complex fracture network. The main goal of this study is to investigate optimum treatment parameters in creating multiple large, planar fractures to hydraulically connect a horizontal injection well and a horizontal production well that are 10,000 ft. deep and spaced 500 ft. apart from each other. A matrix of simulations for this study was carried out to determine the influence of reservoir and treatment parameters on preventing (or aiding) the creation of large planar fractures. The reservoir parameters investigated during the matrix simulations include the in-situ stress state and properties of the natural fracture set such as the primary and secondary fracture orientation, average fracture length, and average fracture spacing. The treatment parameters investigated during the simulations were fluid viscosity, proppant concentration, pump rate, and pump volume. A final simulation with optimized design parameters was performed. The optimized design simulation indicated that high fluid viscosity, high proppant concentration, large pump volume and pump rate tend to minimize the complexity of the created fracture network. Additionally, a reservoir with 'friendly' formation characteristics such as large stress anisotropy, natural fractures set parallel to the maximum horizontal principal stress (SHmax), and large natural fracture spacing also promote the creation of large planar fractures while minimizing fracture complexity.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2018

McMillan Lens in a System with Space Charge

Space charge (SC) in a circulating beam in a ring produces both betatron tune shift and betatron tune spread. These effects make some particles move on to a machine resonance and become unstable. Linear elements of beam optics cannot reduce the tune spread induced by SC because of its intrinsic nonlinear nature. We investigate the possibility to mitigate it by a thin McMillan lens providing a nonlinear axially symmetric kick, which is qualitatively opposite to the accumulated kick by SC. Experimentally, the proposed concept can be tested in Fermilab's IOTA ring. A thin McMillan lens can be implemented by a short (70 cm) insertion of an electron beam with specifically chosen density distribution in transverse directions. In this article, to see if McMillan lenses reduce the tune spread induced by SC, we make several simulations with particle tracking code Synergia. We choose such beam and lattice parameters that tune spread is roughly 0.5 and a beam instability due to the half-integer resonance 0.5 is observed. Then, we try to reduce emittance growth by shifting betatron tunes by adjusting quadrupoles and reducing the tune spread by McMillan lenses.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

The analytic two-loop soft function for leading-jet p T

We present the calculation of the two-loop soft function for the transverse momentum distribution of the leading jet produced in association with any colour-singlet system (e.g. a Higgs or a Z boson). This constitutes a central ingredient for the resummation of the above distribution as well as the jet-vetoed cross section at the next-to-next-to-next-to-leading logarithmic order, both of which play an important role in the precision physics programme at the Large Hadron Collider. The calculation is performed in soft-collinear effective theory with an appropriate regularisation of the rapidity divergences that occur in the phase-space integrals. We obtain analytic results by employing an exponential regulator and by taking a Laurent expansion in the jet radius R . All expressions are presented as supplementary material attached to this article.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Overview of ASDEX upgrade results in view of ITER and DEMO

Experiments on ASDEX Upgrade (AUG) in 2021 and 2022 have addressed a number of critical issues for ITER and EU DEMO. A major objective of the AUG programme is to shed light on the underlying physics of confinement, stability, and plasma exhaust in order to allow reliable extrapolation of results obtained on present day machines to these reactor-grade devices. Concerning pedestal physics, the mitigation of edge localised modes (ELMs) using resonant magnetic perturbations (RMPs) was found to be consistent with a reduction of the linear peeling-ballooning stability threshold due to the helical deformation of the plasma. Conversely, ELM suppression by RMPs is ascribed to an increased pedestal transport that keeps the plasma away from this boundary. Candidates for this increased transport are locally enhanced turbulence and a locked magnetic island in the pedestal. The enhanced D-alpha (EDA) and quasi-continuous exhaust (QCE) regimes have been established as promising ELM-free scenarios. Here, the pressure gradient at the foot of the H-mode pedestal is reduced by a quasi-coherent mode, consistent with violation of the high-n ballooning mode stability limit there. This is suggestive that the EDA and QCE regimes have a common underlying physics origin. In the area of transport physics, full radius models for both L- and H-modes have been developed. These models predict energy confinement in AUG better than the commonly used global scaling laws, representing a large step towards the goal of predictive capability. A new momentum transport analysis framework has been developed that provides access to the intrinsic torque in the plasma core. In the field of exhaust, the X-Point Radiator (XPR), a cold and dense plasma region on closed flux surfaces close to the X-point, was described by an analytical model that provides an understanding of its formation as well as its stability, i.e., the conditions under which it transitions into a deleterious MARFE with the potential to result in a disruptive termination. With the XPR close to the divertor target, a new detached divertor concept, the compact radiative divertor, was developed. Here, the exhaust power is radiated before reaching the target, allowing close proximity of the X-point to the target. No limitations by the shallow field line angle due to the large flux expansion were observed, and sufficient compression of neutral density was demonstrated. With respect to the pumping of non-recycling impurities, the divertor enrichment was found to mainly depend on the ionisation energy of the impurity under consideration. In the area of MHD physics, analysis of the hot plasma core motion in sawtooth crashes showed good agreement with nonlinear 2-fluid simulations. This indicates that the fast reconnection observed in these events is adequately described including the pressure gradient and the electron inertia in the parallel Ohm’s law. Concerning disruption physics, a shattered pellet injection system was installed in collaboration with the ITER International Organisation. Thanks to the ability to vary the shard size distribution independently of the injection velocity, as well as its impurity admixture, it was possible to tailor the current quench rate, which is an important requirement for future large devices such as ITER. Progress was also made modelling the force reduction of VDEs induced by massive gas injection on AUG. The H-mode density limit was characterised in terms of safe operational space with a newly developed active feedback control method that allowed the stability boundary to be probed several times within a single discharge without inducing a disruptive termination. Regarding integrated operation scenarios, the role of density peaking in the confinement of the ITER baseline scenario (high plasma current) was clarified. The usual energy confinement scaling ITER98(p,y) does not capture this effect, but the more recent H20 scaling does, highlighting again the importance of developing adequate physics based models. Advanced tokamak scenarios, aiming at large non-inductive current fraction due to non-standard profiles of the safety factor in combination with high normalised plasma pressure were studied with a focus on their access conditions. A method to guide the approach of the targeted safety factor profiles was developed, and the conditions for achieving good confinement were clarified. Based on this, two types of advanced scenarios (‘hybrid’ and ‘elevated’

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Low-Enriched Uranium (LEU) option for the conversion of FRM II

The Forschungs-Neutronenquelle Heinz Maier-Leibnitz (FRM II) is Germany’s most powerful research reactor and uses Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU) fuel enriched at 93 %. The Technical University of Munich (TUM) operates the reactor and has been mandated to convert the FRM II to a lower-enrichment fuel. In preparation for the lower-enrichment fuel downselection, planned for 2023, TUM is evaluating multiple conversion scenarios. In this paper, it is demonstrated that a conversion of FRM II to Low-Enriched Uranium (LEU) is scientifically possible when using the novel monolithic U-10Mo fuel system, which is currently in the qualification process. As a research reactor, safety criteria, neutron flux distribution and cycle length are key metrics. To begin, neutronic and thermal-hydraulic models were created based on current technical drawings and relevant material properties. Specifically tailored computational methods and coupling schemes have also been developed to properly evaluate all relevant characteristics for the conversion of the FRM II reactor. Using these models and methods, a systematic parameter study was performed to explore the defined design space. The results of that study indicate that many LEU designs using monolithic U-10Mo appear to be viable to convert FRM II to LEU. One example of an LEU solution for the FRM II reactor that fulfills the stated safety, compatibility and scientific performance requirements is discussed in more detail.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Angular correlation between the fission fragment intrinsic spins

The generation of fission fragment (FF) spins and of their relative orbital angular momentum has been debated for more than six decades, and no consensus has been achieved so far. The interpretation of recent experimental results of Wilson et al., has been challenged by several recent theoretical studies, which are not in agreement with one another. According to the interpretation by Wilson et al., the FF spins emerge very long after scission occurrs. Randrup and Vogt, while agreeing that the FF spins are uncorrelated, conclude on the basis of a phenomenological model that these spins are uncorrelated already before scission. Bulgac et al., in a fully microscopic study demonstrate that the primordial FF spin final values are defined before the emission of prompt neutrons and statistical gammas and are strongly correlated with a relative angle between spins close to 2π/3, a result in full agreement with the present independent analysis. The prompt neutrons and statistical gammas carry a significant amount of angular momentum according to the study of Stetcu et al. which can lead to a decorrelation of the FF bandhead spins of the yrast lines measured by Wilson et al., and which also provides arguments why these measured spins are so different from the primordial FF spins evaluated by Bulgac et al.. Here, I show that the unexpected character of the angular correlation between the primordial FF intrinsic spins, recently evaluated by Bulgac et al., which favors FF intrinsic spins pointing predominantly in opposite directions, can be understood by using simple general phase space arguments. The observation by Wilson et al., that the FF spins are uncorrelated follows from both the results of the microscopic calculation of Bulgac et al., and the present analysis of the full correlated probability distribution of the FF spins together with the relative orbital angular momentum of the primordial FFs. These arguments may apply also to heavy-ion collisions and, since there is no use of specifics of the particle interactions, the present results might apply to atomic and molecular systems as well.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Pathway to Zero Energy Windows: Advancing Technologies and Market Adoption

As of 2021, buildings account for 39.1% of total U.S. primary energy use and 75% of total U.S. electricity use. Much of this energy is used to maintain a comfortable indoor environment. The building envelope consists of transparent and opaque elements that serve as a controllable barrier to help maintain the indoor environment regardless of external conditions. The envelope also allows the exchange of light and air, as well as other transfers with the external environment when it is beneficial for the building occupants. By leveraging desirable external environmental conditions (e.g., fresh air and natural light) and mitigating the influence of undesirable conditions (e.g., moisture, hot or cold temperatures, wind), the building envelope can reduce the need for space conditioning and electric light, and thus reduce energy use associated with lighting and heating, cooling, and ventilation equipment. In turn, high-performance building envelopes can reduce the substantial CO 2 emissions associated with energy use to satisfy heating, cooling, and lighting needs in buildings. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Building Technologies Office's (BTO's) Emerging Technologies program supports R&D for technologies, systems, and software tools that can contribute to reductions in building energy use. Emerging Technologies funding is distributed competitively through solicitations (e.g., Funding Opportunity Announcements and National Lab Calls, which in general are open to applications from industry, academia, national laboratories, and other entities) and other mechanisms. This document focuses on R&D for windows and window system technologies and will provide guidance for BTO's investments in developing the next generation of high-performance, affordable, cost competitive windows, as well as integrated daylighting and shading technologies in partnership with industry and researchers. This document also addresses areas where DOE invests in software and design tools that translate sophisticated and complex physics into easy-to-use energy performance and optimization methods used by industry and other stakeholders for implementation.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2022

DenKv: Addressing Design Trade-offs of Key-value Stores for Scientific Applications

High-performance computing (HPC) facilities have employed flash-based storage tier near to compute nodes to absorb high I/O demand by HPC applications during periodic system-level checkpoints. To accelerate these checkpoints, proxy-based distributed key-value stores (PD-KVS) gained particular attention for their flexibility to support multiple backends and different network configurations. PD-KVS rely internally on monolithic KVS, such as LevelDB or RocksDB, to exploit the KV interface and query support. However, PD-KVS are unaware of the high redundancy factor in checkpoint data, which can be up to GBs to TBs, and therefore, tend to generate high write and space amplification on these storage layers. In this paper, we propose DenKv which is deduplication-extended node-local LSM-tree-based KVS. DenKv employs asynchronous partially inline dedup (APID) and aims to maintain the performance characteristics of LSM-tree-based KVS while reducing the write and space amplification problems. We implemented DenKv atop BlobDB and showed that our proposed solution maintains performance while reducing write amplification up to 2× and space amplification by 4× on average.

Khan, Awais↗
DOE OSTI2026

Physics vs structure: A systematic benchmark of learning strategies for multi-zone building thermal dynamics

Recent advances in physics-informed and data-driven machine learning promise improved thermal models for advanced building control, yet there is limited quantitative evidence on when added physics structure and architectural complexity are beneficial. Here, this work presents a systematic benchmark of five representative system identification methods for modeling multi-zone building thermal dynamics: linear state-space models, multi-layer perceptrons, neural state-space models, neural ordinary differential equations, and physically-consistent neural networks. The methods are evaluated across multiple data regimes and zone coupling strategies. Using a high-fidelity multi-zone commercial building emulator, we examine short-term and long-term prediction accuracy, computational efficiency, and ease of development. Our results reveal critical trade-offs between prediction performance, model complexity, and physical consistency. We demonstrate that decoupled, nonlinear black-box models consistently outperform coupled physics-constrained architectures in both predictive accuracy and out-of-distribution robustness in majority of the test cases for the building type considered in the study. Our findings quantify the cost of complexity in building thermal modeling and provide concrete, actionable, scenario-based guidelines for selecting model classes for control-oriented applications.

Building thermal modeling↗