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Simple method for life-cycle cost (LCC) estimation avoids pitfalls inherent in formulations requiring separate estimates of inflation and interest rates. Method depends for validity observation that interest and inflation rates closely track each other.
Over the past decade, the gravitational lensing of the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) has become a powerful tool for probing the matter distribution in the Universe. The standard technique used to reconstruct the CMB lensing signal employs the quadratic estimator (QE) method, which has recently been shown to be suboptimal for lensing measurements on very small scales in temperature and polarization data. We implement a simple, more optimal method for the small-scale regime, which involves taking the direct inverse of the background gradient. We derive new techniques to make continuous maps of lensing using this "Gradient-Inversion" (GI) method and validate our method with simulated data, finding good agreement with predictions. For idealized simulations of lensing cross- and autospectra that neglect foregrounds, we demonstrate that our method performs significantly better than previous quadratic estimator methods in temperature; at $L=5000-9000$, it reduces errors on the lensing auto-power spectrum by a factor of $\sim 4$ for both idealized CMB-S4 and Simons Observatory-like experiments and by a factor of $\sim 2.6$ for cross-correlations of CMB-S4-like lensing reconstruction and the true lensing field. Finally, we caution that the level of the neglected small-scale foreground power, while low in polarization, is very high in temperature; though we briefly outline foreground mitigation methods, further work on this topic is required. Nevertheless, our results show the future potential for improved small-scale CMB lensing measurements, which could provide stronger constraints on cosmological parameters and astrophysics at high redshifts.
A Monte Carlo method to estimate the sensitivity of reaction rates like dose and flux spectra to geometric perturbations using kernel density estimators is demonstrated for shielding problems. The method is used to estimate the sensitivity of the spectrum emitted from a Cf-252 source at the center of an iron sphere as well as the sensitivity of the dose due to Cf-252 neutrons shielded using various materials. Results are compared against reference solutions obtained using Monte Carlo direct perturbations with central differences, with agreement within 5% and 3σ for the majority of results. The results indicate that a bandwidth that is 10-20% of the shielding thickness produces accurate results with statistically insignificant bias for the chosen test problems. (authors)
Electrochemical models for the lithium-ion battery are useful in predicting and controlling its performance. The values of the parameters in these models are vital to their accuracy. However, not all parameters can be measured precisely, especially when destructive methods are prohibited. In some embodiments of the present disclosure, a parameter estimation approach is used to estimate the open circuit potential of the positive electrode (Up) using piecewise linear approximation together with all the other parameters of a single particle model. Up and 10 more parameters may be estimated from a single discharge curve without knowledge of the electrode chemistry using a technique such as a genetic algorithm. Different case studies were presented for estimating Up with different types of parameters of the battery model. The estimated parameters were then validated by comparing simulations at different discharge rates with experimental data.
Observed solar p-mode frequency splittings can be used to estimate angular velocity as a function of position in the solar interior. Formal uncertainties of such estimates depend on the method of estimation (e.g., least-squares), the distribution of errors in the observations, and the parameterization imposed on the angular velocity. We obtain lower bounds on the uncertainties that do not depend on the method of estimation; the bounds depend on an assumed parameterization, but the fact that they are lower bounds for the 'true' uncertainty does not. Ninety-five percent confidence intervals for estimates of the angular velocity from 1986 Big Bear Solar Observatory (BBSO) data, based on a 3659 element tensor-product cubic-spline parameterization, are everywhere wider than 120 nHz, and exceed 60,000 nHz near the core. When compared with estimates of the solar rotation, these bounds reveal that useful inferences based on pointwise estimates of the angular velocity using 1986 BBSO splitting data are not feasible over most of the Sun's volume. The discouraging size of the uncertainties is due principally to the fact that helioseismic measurements are insensitive to changes in the angular velocity at individual points, so estimates of point values based on splittings are extremely uncertain. Functionals that measure distributed 'smooth' properties are, in general, better constrained than estimates of the rotation at a point. For example, the uncertainties in estimated differences of average rotation between adjacent blocks of about 0.001 solar volumes across the base of the convective zone are much smaller, and one of several estimated differences we compute appears significant at the 95% level.
Numerical weather prediction (NWP) is an initial-value problem for a system of nonlinear differential equations, in which initial values are known incompletely and inaccurately. Observational data available at the initial time must therefore be supplemented by data available prior to the initial time, a problem known as meteorological data assimilation. A further complication in NWP is that solutions of the governing equations evolve on two different time scales, a fast one and a slow one, whereas fast scale motions in the atmosphere are not reliably observed. This leads to the so called initialization problem: initial values must be constrained to result in a slowly evolving forecast. The theory of estimation of stochastic dynamic systems provides a natural approach to such problems. For linear stochastic dynamic models, the Kalman-Bucy (KB) sequential filter is the optimal data assimilation method, for linear models, the optimal combined data assimilation-initialization method is a modified version of the KB filter.
As part of an effort to improve emissions, noise, and performance of next generation aircraft, it is expected that future aircraft will make use of distributed, multi-objective control effectors in a closed-loop flight control system. Correlation challenges associated with parameter estimation will arise with this expected aircraft configuration. Research presented in this paper focuses on addressing the correlation problem with an appropriate input design technique and validating this technique through simulation and flight test of the X-48B aircraft. The X-48B aircraft is an 8.5 percent-scale hybrid wing body aircraft demonstrator designed by The Boeing Company (Chicago, Illinois, USA), built by Cranfield Aerospace Limited (Cranfield, Bedford, United Kingdom) and flight tested at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Dryden Flight Research Center (Edwards, California, USA). Based on data from flight test maneuvers performed at Dryden Flight Research Center, aerodynamic parameter estimation was performed using linear regression and output error techniques. An input design technique that uses temporal separation for de-correlation of control surfaces is proposed, and simulation and flight test results are compared with the aerodynamic database. This paper will present a method to determine individual control surface aerodynamic derivatives.
The numerical method by which ocean surface significant waveheight estimates are produced from the GEOS-3 radar altimeter data is described. Four parameters characterizing the expected radar mean return waveform are determined from the altimeter's sixteen sample-and-hold waveform samplers through use of an iterative, least squares approach. One of the four parameters is a risetime term which has contributions from both the transmitted radar pulse width and the rms ocean surface height; the estimated significant waveheight is extracted from this risetime. The noise character of the estimation process leads to occasional negative significant waveheight estimates, and the origin of these nonphysical negative results is discussed. Possible modifications and areas for additional investigation are indicated.
Method for estimating critical molar volume of materials is faster and simpler than previous procedures. Formula sums no more than 18 different contributions from components of chemical structure of material, and is as accurate (within 3 percent) as older more complicated models. Method should expedite many thermodynamic design calculations.
An apparatus, method, and computer program that can learn a linear or non-linear transfer function are disclosed. In one embodiment, for example, a computer-implemented method may include creating a plurality of combinations for at least one input, and calculating an output for the plurality of combinations. The method may also include calculating an error based on the calculated output.
An algorithm for maximum likelihood (ML) estimation is developed primarily for multivariable dynamic systems. The algorithm relies on a new optimization method referred to as a modified Newton-Raphson with estimated sensitivities (MNRES). The method determines sensitivities by using slope information from local surface approximations of each output variable in parameter space. The fitted surface allows sensitivity information to be updated at each iteration with a significant reduction in computational effort compared with integrating the analytically determined sensitivity equations or using a finite-difference method. Different surface-fitting methods are discussed and demonstrated. Aircraft estimation problems are solved by using both simulated and real-flight data to compare MNRES with commonly used methods; in these solutions MNRES is found to be equally accurate and substantially faster. MNRES eliminates the need to derive sensitivity equations, thus producing a more generally applicable algorithm.
Three well-known trajectory statistical methods (TSMs), namely concentration field (CF), concentration weighted trajectory (CWT), and potential source contribution function (PSCF) methods were tested using known sources and artificially generated data sets to determine the ability of TSMs to reproduce spatial distribution of the sources. In the works by other authors, the accuracy of the trajectory statistical methods was estimated for particular species and at specified receptor locations. We have obtained a more general statistical estimation of the accuracy of source reconstruction and have found optimum conditions to reconstruct source distributions of atmospheric trace substances. Only virtual pollutants of the primary type were considered. In real world experiments, TSMs are intended for application to a priori unknown sources. Therefore, the accuracy of TSMs has to be tested with all possible spatial distributions of sources. An ensemble of geographical distributions of virtual sources was generated. Spearman s rank order correlation coefficient between spatial distributions of the known virtual and the reconstructed sources was taken to be a quantitative measure of the accuracy. Statistical estimates of the mean correlation coefficient and a range of the most probable values of correlation coefficients were obtained. All the TSMs that were considered here showed similar close results. The maximum of the ratio of the mean correlation to the width of the correlation interval containing the most probable correlation values determines the optimum conditions for reconstruction. An optimal geographical domain roughly coincides with the area supplying most of the substance to the receptor. The optimal domain s size is dependent on the substance decay time. Under optimum reconstruction conditions, the mean correlation coefficients can reach 0.70 0.75. The boundaries of the interval with the most probable correlation values are 0.6 0.9 for the decay time of 240 h and 0.5 0.95 for the decay time of 12 h. The best results of source reconstruction can be expected for the trace substances with a decay time on the order of several days. Although the methods considered in this paper do not guarantee high accuracy they are computationally simple and fast. Using the TSMs in optimum conditions and taking into account the range of uncertainties, one can obtain a first hint on potential source areas.
An efficient method and system for real-time or offline analysis of multivariate sensor data for use in anomaly detection, fault detection, and system health monitoring is provided. Models automatically derived from training data, typically nominal system data acquired from sensors in normally operating conditions or from detailed simulations, are used to identify unusual, out of family data samples (outliers) that indicate possible system failure or degradation. Outliers are determined through analyzing a degree of deviation of current system behavior from the models formed from the nominal system data. The deviation of current system behavior is presented as an easy to interpret numerical score along with a measure of the relative contribution of each system parameter to any off-nominal deviation. The techniques described herein may also be used to "clean" the training data.
An approximation scheme is developed for the identification of hybrid systems describing the transverse vibrations of flexible beams with attached tip bodies. In particular, problems involving the estimation of functional parameters are considered. The identification problem is formulated as a least squares fit to data subject to the coupled system of partial and ordinary differential equations describing the transverse displacement of the beam and the motion of the tip bodies respectively. A cubic spline-based Galerkin method applied to the state equations in weak form and the discretization of the admissible parameter space yield a sequence of approximating finite dimensional identification problems. It is shown that each of the approximating problems admits a solution and that from the resulting sequence of optimal solutions a convergent subsequence can be extracted, the limit of which is a solution to the original identification problem. The approximating identification problems can be solved using standard techniques and readily available software.
A method for estimating the size and location of couplings within a waveguide directional coupler is provided. The method is applied to a waveguide directional coupler having a main transmission waveguide connected to an auxiliary transmission waveguide by a number of bore hold couplings. The bore hold couplings are in the interior of the waveguide directional coupler and, therefore, are not easily measurable. The method generally includes the steps of applying a two-sided tape to a member, inserting and securing the member within the main transmission waveguide, pouring a fine particulate substance such as talc into the auxiliary transmission waveguide such that a portion of the talc enters the bore hole couplings and adheres to the two-sided tape, and withdrawing the member such that the size and location of the bore hole couplings can be determined by measuring the size and location of marks on the two-sided tape caused by the fine particular substance adhering to the two-sided tape.
A method, apparatus and system for human skeleton pose estimation includes synchronously capturing images of a human moving through an area from a plurality of different points of view, for each of the plurality of captured images, determining a bounding box that bounds the human in the captured image and identifying pixel locations of the bounding box in the image, for each of the plurality of captured images, determining 2D and single-view 3D skeletons from the pixel locations of the bounding box, determining a first, multi-view 3D skeleton using a combination of the 2D and single-view 3D skeletons, and optimizing the first, multi-view 3D skeleton to determine a final 3D skeleton pose for the human. The method, apparatus and system can further include illuminating the area with structured light during the capturing of the images of the human moving through the area.
In various embodiments the present disclosure provides a system and a method for estimating energy usage in a vehicle. The system includes hardware that perform certain operations that include receiving data associated with a route to be taken by the vehicle. The operations include determining, based on the data associated with the route and a state of the vehicle, an estimate corresponding to the energy that would be used by the vehicle when traversing a segment of the route.
This study focuses on methods to estimate dry marine aerosol surface area (SA) from bulk optical measurements. Aerosol SA is used in many models' ice nucleating particle (INP) parameterizations, as well as influencing particle light scattering, hygroscopic growth, and reactivity, but direct observations are scarce in the Southern Ocean (SO). Two campaigns jointly conducted in austral summer 2018 provided co-located measurements of aerosol SA from particle size distributions and lidar to evaluate SA estimation methods in this region. Mie theory calculations based on measured size distributions were used to test a proposed approximation for dry aerosol SA, which relies on estimating effective scattering efficiency (Q) as a function of Ångström exponent (å). For distributions with dry å < 1, Q = 2 was found to be a good approximation within ±50%, but for distributions with dry å > 1, an assumption of Q = 3 as in some prior studies underestimates dry aerosol SA by a factor of 2 or more. We propose a new relationship between dry å and Q, which can be used for –0.2 < å < 2, and suggest å = 0.8 as the cutoff between primary and secondary marine aerosol-dominated distributions. Application of a published methodology to retrieve dry marine aerosol SA from lidar extinction profiles overestimated aerosol SA by a factor of 3–5 during these campaigns. Using Microtops aerosol optical thickness measurements, we derive alternative lidar conversion parameters from our observations, applicable to marine aerosol over the SO.