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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 775 records · Page 43
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Multitask Recommender Systems for Cancer Drug Response

The problem we are currently trying to address is that there are many types of cancer drugs and many types of cancers and there is not always experimental data for a specific cancer type and cancer drug interaction. While there is a large possible set of feasible drug and cancer combinations, testing each pair is not realistic due to the high monetary cost of cell-based assays. Thus, this leaves researchers with a difficult choice of what drugs they should test on specific cancer types. This issue is known as the cold-start problem. Our focus is on developing recommender systems capable of addressing the cold-start problem as it relates to interaction between cancer types and cancer drugs. One of the most effective ways to address the cold-start problem is through large data analysis, however due to the cost prohibitive nature of cancer research the largest available data set size is the Genomics of Drug Sensitivity in Cancer with 494,973 genomic associations. To achieve optimal model performance on the cold-start problem, it is advantageous to employ multitask algorithms that are capable of transferring information between cancer datasets. The aim of this report is to draw from adaptations and state of the art developments in both algorithms for recommender systems and multitask learning to model the interaction between cancer cell lines and cancer drugs. Cancer cell lines are defined by the US National Cancer Institute as "cancer cells that keep dividing and growing over time, under certain conditions in a laboratory". This paper will focus on evaluating the performance of Neural Collaborative Filtering and Gaussian Processes, as well as their multitask adaptations, on cancer datasets from CCLE, NCI60, GDSC and CTRP. These methods will be evaluated on model performance in regression prediction but also in interpretability.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Bayesian Model Calibration for Extrapolative Prediction via Gibbs Posteriors

The current standard Bayesian approach to model calibration, which assigns a Gaussian process prior to the discrepancy term, often suffers from issues of unidentifiability and computational complexity and instability. When the goal is to quantify uncertainty in physical parameters for extrapolative prediction, then there is no need to perform inference on the discrepancy term. With this in mind, we introduce Gibbs posteriors as an alternative Bayesian method for model calibration, which updates the prior with a loss function connecting the data to the parameter. The target of inference is the physical parameter value which minimizes the expected loss. We propose to tune the loss scale of the Gibbs posterior to maintain nominal frequentist coverage under assumptions of the form of model discrepancy, and present a bootstrap implementation for approximating coverage rates. Our approach is highly modular, allowing an analyst to easily encode a wide variety of such assumptions. Furthermore, we provide a principled method of combining posteriors calculated from data subsets. We apply our methods to data from an experiment measuring the material properties of tantalum.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Comprehensive Margin Assessment of the ASME Section III, Division 5, Class A Primary Load Design Rules

This report provides a comprehensive margin assessment of the ASME Section III, Division 5, Subsection HB, Subpart B rules for the design of high temperature reactor components against load controlled stress limits. These rules, often called the Code primary load design rules, provide protection against creep rupture and plastic collapse under steady conditions. The method adopted here is to compare the deterministic ASME design life, according to the primary load design rules, against the expected, statistical service life of the component, considering creep rupture as the relevant failure mode. The report provides the design margin of the ASME rules in terms of the probability of premature failure -- the probability that the component fails in service before reaching the ASME design life. To complete this assessment, the report describes the development of a statistical creep life assessment procedure accounting for variations in the component loading, material creep rate, and the material rupture time. This includes a novel method for correlating creep rupture data using a Gaussian process accounting for heat-to-heat variation in the Larson-Miller time-temperature parameter. The report applies the complete margin assessment process to quantify the design margin inherent in the ASME primary load design rules as a function of temperature for relevant component geometries and materials. The overall conclusion is that the ASME rules are conservative, providing designs with very small probability of premature failure, but some optimization of the Code design rules is possible to provide a more uniform design margin.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Comprehensive Material Characterization and Simultaneous Model Calibration for Improved Computational Simulation Credibility

Computational simulation is increasingly relied upon for high-consequence engineering decisions, and a foundational element to solid mechanics simulations is a credible material model. Our ultimate vision is to interlace material characterization and model calibration in a real-time feedback loop, where the current model calibration results will drive the experiment to load regimes that add the most useful information to reduce parameter uncertainty. The current work investigated one key step to this Interlaced Characterization and Calibration (ICC) paradigm, using a finite load-path tree to incorporate history/path dependency of nonlinear material models into a network of surrogate models that replace computationally-expensive finite-element analyses. Our reference simulation was an elastoplastic material point subject to biaxial deformation with a Hill anisotropic yield criterion. Training data was generated using either a space-filling or adaptive sampling method, and surrogates were built using either Gaussian process or polynomial chaos expansion methods. Surrogate error was evaluated to be on the order of 10 ⁻5 and 10 ⁻3 percent for the space-filling and adaptive sampling training data, respectively. Direct Bayesian inference was performed with the surrogate network and with the reference material point simulator, and results agreed to within 3 significant figures for the mean parameter values, with a reduction in computational cost over 5 orders of magnitude. These results bought down risk regarding the surrogate network and facilitated a successful FY22-24 full LDRD proposal to research and develop the complete ICC paradigm.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Optimization of artificial viscosity in production codes based on Gaussian Regression surrogate models

To accurately model flows with shock waves using staggered-grid Lagrangian hydrodynamics, artificial viscosity has to be introduced to convert kinetic energy into internal energy, thereby increasing the entropy across shocks. Determining the appropriate strength of the artificial viscosity is an art and strongly depends on the particular problem and experience of the researcher. The objective of this study is to pose the problem of finding the appropriate strength of artificial viscosity as an optimization problem and solve this problem using machine learning (ML) tools, specifically using surrogate models based on Gaussian Process regression and Bayesian analysis. We describe the optimization method and discuss various practical details of its implementation. The shock-containing problems for which we apply this method all have been implemented in the LANL code FLAG. First, we apply ML to find optimal values to isolated shock problems of different strengths. Second, we apply ML to optimize viscosity for a 1D propagating detonation problem based on Zel’dovich-von Neumann-Doring (ZND) detonation theory using a reactive burn model. We compare results for default (currently used values in FLAG) and optimized values of artificial viscosity for these problems demonstrating the potential for significant improvement in the accuracy of computations.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Inferring Water Content from Neutron Die-away Curves for Planetary Science Applications

Signatures of liquid water on planetary bodies may provide evidence for past, present, or future life elsewhere in the solar system. Multiple current and upcoming planetary science missions are prioritizing the search for water, using innovative technologies and creative algorithms. For this project, we explore the capabilities of an instrument similar to the Dragonfly spacecraft to map water content on the surface of Titan, the largest moon of Saturn. We simulate Dragonfly’s neutron observations for a variety of soil compositions and develop multiple techniques to extract water content from the resultant neutron data. Additionally, we supplement neutron observations with gamma spectroscopy in an attempt to further refine water content estimates. This work is part of a larger study to employ Gaussian process regression to estimate a map of water content along the surface of Titan. Using the estimated map, an algorithm based on prediction difference mapping is employed to optimally move multiple Dragonfly detectors around the surface of Titan, fully autonomously.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

An ICME Modeling Framework for Titanium/Tungsten-Carbide Metal Matrix Composites

This report describes a collaborative project to develop a validated, predictive model for the high temperature mechanical properties of a titanium-matrix, tungsten-carbide/cobalt-reinforced metal matrix composite. The modeling approach was to first develop a detailed, microstructural model linking the material structure and the interfacial debonding properties to the effective properties of the material. The project then completed a throughput simulation campaign to generate a large number of simulations for discrete microstructures and different debonding parameters. Finally, the project trained a fast, Gaussian process surrogate model against this simulation database to provide a quick model linking the material compositions, structure, and processing parameters to the resulting material properties. This model was validated against high temperature tensile test data on a few particular composite compositions. The tests validate the model predictions for ultimate tensile strength and uniform elongation/ductility, meaning the final surrogate model can now be used to tune the material composition and processing parameters to identify optimal composite compositions for particular applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Uncertainty Aware Deep Learning for Particle Accelerators

Standard deep learning models for classification and regression applications are ideal for capturing complex system dynamics. However, their predictions can be arbitrarily inaccurate when the input samples are not similar to the training data. Implementation of distance aware uncertainty estimation can be used to detect these scenarios and provide a level of confidence associated with their predictions. In this paper, we present results from using Deep Gaussian Process Approximation (DGPA) methods for errant beam prediction at Spallation Neutron Source (SNS) accelerator (classification) and we provide an uncertainty aware surrogate model for the Fermi National Accelerator Lab (FNAL) Booster Accelerator Complex (regression).

Rajput, Kishansingh↗
DOE OSTI2024

ML based control systems for nuclear physics experiments

The Experimental Physics Software and Computing Infrastructure (EPSCI) group at Jefferson Lab is leading the use of machine learning (ML) to enhance control systems in nuclear physics experiments. Collaborating closely with domain experts and data scientists, we have developed an ML-based control system that uses a Gaussian process to dynamically adjust the high voltage of the GlueX Central Drift Chamber. This results in stable detector performance by adapting to environmental changes, thereby reducing the offline calibration effort. Furthermore, we are developing ML-driven systems for optimizing the polarization of photon beams and polarized cryotargets. These systems will maintain the optimal microwave frequency in cryogenic targets and make real-time adjustments to diamond radiators for polarized photon sources, tasks traditionally handled by human operators. By automating these functions, we aim to optimize the polarization, reduce downtime, and minimize human error. This talk will highlight the development of reliable ML-based control systems and the policies to ensure they are both effective and trustworthy.

Jeske, Torri↗
DOE OSTI2024

Addressing Experimental Challenges in Probing Dark Energy with Accuracy and Precision with the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space & Time (LSST)

With support from this award, the Stanford group under the leadership of PI Patricia Burchat focused on pixel-level algorithms that are key to the investigation of dark energy with the Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST). The work was carried out through strong engagement in the DOE-supported LSST Dark Energy Science Collaboration (DESC), for which the PI served as Deputy Spokesperson (07/2019 - 07/2021) and Technical Coordinator (07/2021 - 07/2023). Members of the Burchat group are Full DESC members and are among scientists who have been accepted to join the Rubin Observatory System Integration, Test, and Commissioning (SIT-Com) effort. The specific intellectual focus of the group was the optimization of gravitational lensing as a probe of the evolution of the distribution of dark matter in space and time to learn about the nature of dark energy. The Stanford group pursued an integrated research program to understand in detail, and then remediate or calibrate, systematic effects that could limit the sensitivity of the LSST to cosmic shear as a dark energy probe -- particularly those related to our understanding of the atmospheric point spread function (PSF), challenges associated with blended galaxy images, and impacts of residual camera artifacts. Key to this work was developing, enhancing, and validating the fidelity of simulations that play a key role in the development of our understanding of subtle systematic biases and then using these simulations to develop techniques to characterize and mitigate biases, and associated algorithms for implementation in the LSST or DESC science pipelines. The group’s work included contributions to the open-source GalSim simulation package, which is widely used in the community; simulations and studies of spatial correlations of atmospheric PSFs; studies of temporal correlations of the atmospheric PSF; impacts of chromatic PSFs on cosmic shear calibration; continued studies of anisotropic Gaussian process interpolation of PSF models across the focal plane; and measuring and mitigating impacts of residual camera artifacts on cosmic shear. A primary impact of this work is that it increases the scientific discovery potential of the DOE and NSF investments in the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space \& Time, by addressing challenges in interpreting astronomical images through more accurate descriptions of the blurring of images due to the atmosphere. Specifically, this work impacts our ability to understand the fundamental nature of dark energy.

Burchat, Patricia Rose↗
DOE OSTI2025

High-Temperature Gas Sensor Materials with Properties Predicted via First-Principles Calculations with Machine Learning Modeling and Experimental Corroboration

Understanding the temperature dependence of functional properties of sensing materials is vital for their applications in combustion environments. The electron-phonon coupling that derives the electronic structure change with temperatures is a key property of interest as it affects other sensing responses. Herein, we first assess the temperature dependence of band gap renormalization in sensing materials by employing Allen-Heine-Cardona (AHC) theory with density functional theory (DFT) simulations corroborated with experimental observation. As the AHC calculations are impractical for high-throughput screening of materials, we employ data-driven Gaussian process regression to predict the parameters employed in the O’Donnell empirical model from a set of physical features. To mitigate the reliability issues arising from the small size of the dataset, we apply a Bayesian technique to improve the generalizability of the data-driven models as well as to quantify the uncertainty associated with theoretical predictions. These models capture well the overall trend of the O’Donnell parameters with respect to a reduced feature set obtained by transforming the available physical features. Quantifying the associated uncertainty helps us understand the reliability of the predictions and, therefore, the variation of bandgap as a function of temperature for other novel materials. The predicted candidates from machine learning models are further validated by experiments and DFT calculations.

bandgap renormalization↗
DOE OSTI2025

Machine learning models for PDE constrained optimization

Partial differential equation (PDE)-constrained optimization problems arise in a variety of scientific and engineering applications, such as topology optimization, electrodynamics, fluid dynamics, and structural dynamics. However, these problems are often challenging and computationally expensive to solve, due to the need to solve the PDEs within the optimization loop. One approach to reducing the computational cost of these methods while providing convergence guarantees is through inexact trust region methods; this method uses lower fidelity solutions of the PDE at early stages of the optimization and adjusts the required accuracy of inexact PDE solvers as the optimization progresses. In this work, we explore the use of machine learning based surrogate models with these inexact trust region methods. We first demonstrate the potential of this approach by using Gaussian processes as the surrogate model and test this on a simple PDE-constrained optimization problem. We then document explorations into improving the computational costs of evolutional deep neural network / neural Galerkin methods, with the eventual goal of using these methods with the inexact trust region algorithms. We are able to speed up these approaches, albeit at the cost of lower accuracy.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Development of Automated Atom Probe Tomography capability to study the influence of applied voltage and laser power on the final apparent composition of the analyzed specimen

This study presents the development and implementation of an autonomous Bayesian optimization (BO) framework for controlling and optimizing experimental parameters in Atom Probe Tomography (APT). Using commercial silicon needle samples as a benchmark system, we demonstrate that BO can efficiently navigate the complex parameter space of voltage and laser power to achieve target charge state ratios (specifically Si + /(Si + +Si 2+ )) with minimal experimental evaluations. Our implementation integrates Gaussian Process modeling with the CAMECA atom probe control framework, enabling autonomous adjustment of experimental conditions in real-time. Results show that the algorithm successfully converges to target ratios under different scenarios: maintaining a reference ratio, increasing the ratio (favoring Si 1+ ), and decreasing the ratio (favoring Si 2+ ). The system adapts to specimen evolution during analysis, compensating for changes in apex geometry while maintaining optimization targets. This work establishes a proof of concept for AI-driven optimization in APT, addressing the traditional challenges of manual parameter tuning and paving the way for applications to more complex materials where compositional accuracy is critical.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty based Online Ensemble on Non-Stationary Data for Fusion Science

Machine Learning (ML) is poised to play a pivotal role in the development and operation of next-generation fusion devices. Fusion data shows non-stationary behavior due to drifts in the data. The drifts can arise from both experimental evolution and machine wear-and-tear. ML models assume stationary distribution and fail to maintain performance when encountered with non-stationary data streams.Online learning can be used to continuously adapt the models with new data as it is acquired. However, traditional online learning can suffer from short-term performance degradation, as ground truth are not available before making the prediction. To address this challenge, we propose uncertainty aware ensemble approach for online learning. We use Deep Gaussian Process Approximation (DGPA) technique for calibrated uncertainty estimation and use the uncertainty values to guide a meta-algorithm that produces predictions based on ensemble of learners. Moreover, DGPA also provides uncertainty estimation along with the predictions for decision makers. This paper demonstrates that the proposed method outperforms traditional online learning approach, and a naive ensemble without uncertainty guidance by about 7% and 6%, respectively, on B-coil deflection prediction at DIII-D Fusion Facility.

Rajput, Kishansingh [Thomas Jefferson National Acc↗
DOE OSTI2025

Examples of Mission-driven Data Science from Jefferson Lab and ACES

This presentation details mission-driven data science initiatives at Jefferson Lab and the Joint Institute for Advanced Computing on Environmental Studies (ACES). JLab, a U.S. Department of Energy Office of Science national laboratory, operates the Continuous Electron Beam Accelerator Facility (CEBAF), and is the lead institute for the new High Performance Data Facility (HPDF) Hub. The Joint Institute for ACES brings together interdisciplinary teams in health informatics, climate modeling, computer science, and physics to address environmental challenges, including flood modeling. The Hampton Roads region, particularly Norfolk and Virginia Beach, faces increasing flood risks, motivating the need for rapid, reliable, and risk-aware decision support. ACES’s flooding work has a focus on uncertainty quantification (UQ) and machine learning (ML) for coastal flood management. The work is motivated by the increasing vulnerability of communities such as Norfolk and Virginia Beach, Virginia, to frequent coastal flooding events, and the need for rapid, reliable decision support. The research develops computationally efficient ML surrogate models to forecast water levels and flooding risk. A central theme is the quantification and calibration of predictive uncertainty, especially for out-of-distribution (OOD) scenarios, using techniques such as Monte Carlo Dropout, Deep Ensembles, Gaussian Processes, and Deep Quantile Regression (DQR). The study demonstrates that distance-aware UQ is critical for reliable scientific AI, particularly in high-dimensional, safety-critical, and real-time applications.

McSpadden, Diana [Thomas Jefferson National Accele↗
DOE OSTI2025

Fermilab Booster loss modelling and rebalancing using Bayesian methods

Fermilab Booster is being upgraded for the PIP-II project to support 20Hz ramp rate at higher intensities. Loss trip limits determine the achievable peak power. To meet PIP-II requirements, losses need to be halved as compared to current levels. Losses primarily occur at injection and transition crossing, with both gradually increasing and threshold-like intensity-dependent behaviors. The existing simulation models are not yet good enough for quantitative loss predictions. In practice, it will be necessary to tune up the Booster using iterative methods and operator intuition. In this paper we present an effort to systematically model Booster losses using active learning (Bayesian exploration) techniques, and subsequently to rebalance them for higher trip limit margins. We first created several sets of spatially and temporally isolated orbit and optics knobs, and trained Gaussian process models for each beam loss monitor as well as beam current. This is a complex task due to safety and timing requirements – we discuss mitigations such as uncertainty constraints and approximate fitting. Once models are stable, we perform large-scale single and multi-objective tuning using scalarized objectives made up of critical beam loss locations. Our results demonstrate significant rebalancing of losses, increasing trip margins, as well as an overall improvement in beam transmission efficiency. We are exploring how to combine existing simulations with experimental data and automate the collection procedure so that more advanced surrogate models can be created over time.

Kuklev, Nikita [Fermilab]↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian Calibration of Nuclear Graphite Property Models Accounting for Model Inadequacy and Impacts on Component Performance

Nuclear-grade structural graphite is extensively utilized in the core designs of various advanced nuclear reactors. In the reactor environment, graphite is subjected to prolonged exposure to extreme conditions, including high temperatures, radiation, and potentially molten salt and oxygen. Such exposure can induce several degradation mechanisms in graphite, including nonuniform volumetric strains caused by irradiation and thermal expansion, leading to stresses that may compromise the performance of graphite components. Assessing component integrity requires accurate models of graphite's thermomechanical response. This report documents the Bayesian calibration of thermomechanical properties for nuclear-grade graphite and their application to graphite component modeling and simulation using the Grizzly code. As part of this work, uncertainty-quantified models were developed for the elastic modulus, coefficient of thermal expansion, irradiation-induced dimensional change, and irradiation-induced creep for graphite grades IG-110, NBG-18, NBG-17, PCEA, and 2114. Using a hierarchical Bayesian approach, multiple experimental data sources were combined to develop Gaussian process models for the properties. Using the Kennedy O'Hagan framework, the uncertainties due to inadequacies in the model and the inherent spread in the experimental data were quantified for three different models. These uncertainty-quantified models, with a model-form correction, were subsequently applied to a coupled-physics simulation of representative graphite components, revealing that the uncertainties have a large impact on the components' deformation.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Bayesian Exploration and Surrogate Emulation of Nonlinear Beam-Response Geometry in the LBNF Beamline

Next-generation long-baseline neutrino experiments aim to achieve multi-MW proton beam power while reducing accelerator-induced systematic uncertainties. At Fermilab, the LBNF beamline is designed for 1.2 MW operation with PIP-II and is upgradeable to 2.4 MW. DUNE will probe the three-flavor neutrino paradigm and search for CP violation, requiring precise neutrino-flux normalization and improved control of accelerator-related uncertainties. Within the LBNF beamline, the System for On-Axis Neutrino Detection (SAND) will constrain flux uncertainties using precision near-detector measurements, while the Muon Monitor System (MuMS) will provide beamline diagnostics sensitive to the proton beam, target, and horn configuration. However, the pion phase space relevant for DUNE depends simultaneously on many correlated parameters, including beam centroid, beam width, horn current and alignment, target position, optics shifts, and radiation-induced changes. Consequently, MuMS observables exhibit nonlinear and coupled responses that are difficult to characterize using traditional one-parameter scans. To address this challenge, we are developing a Bayesian Exploration framework coupled to physics-informed surrogate emulators trained on Geant4 beamline simulations. Gaussian-process emulators provide both fast predictions and uncertainty estimates, enabling adaptive selection of new simulation points in beam-parameter space. As an initial demonstration, we construct surrogate emulators for MuMS response observables using a verified simulation campaign spanning proton-beam steering conditions. The emulators reproduce the simulated dependence of MuMS centroid and gradient observables while providing predictive uncertainties, and serve as the foundation for future multidimensional exploration including beam width, horn current, and additional beamline parameters. This work establishes a framework for uncertainty-aware beam monitoring, adaptive simulation campaigns, and rapid beam-response inference for future DUNE operations.

Ganguly, Sudeshna [Fermilab] (ORCID:00000003163482↗