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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 775 records · Page 43

Offshore application of landslide susceptibility mapping using gradient-boosted decision trees: a Gulf of Mexico case study

Abstract Among natural hazards occurring offshore, submarine landslides pose a significant risk to offshore infrastructure installations attached to the seafloor. With the offshore being important for current and future energy production, there is a need to anticipate where future landslide events are likely to occur to support planning and development projects. Using the northern Gulf of Mexico (GoM) as a case study, this paper performs Landslide Susceptibility Mapping (LSM) using a gradient-boosted decision tree (GBDT) model to characterize the spatial patterns of submarine landslide probability over the United States Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) where water depths are greater than 120 m. With known spatial extents of historic submarine landslides and a Geographic Information System (GIS) database of known topographical, geomorphological, geological, and geochemical factors, the resulting model was capable of accurately forecasting potential locations of sediment instability. Results of a permutation modelling approach indicated that LSM accuracy is sensitive to the number of unique training locations with model accuracy becoming more stable as the number of training regions was increased. The influence that each input feature had on predicting landslide susceptibility was evaluated using the SHapely Additive exPlanations (SHAP) feature attribution method. Areas of high and very high susceptibility were associated with steep terrain including salt basins and escarpments. This case study serves as an initial assessment of the machine learning (ML) capabilities for producing accurate submarine landslide susceptibility maps given the current state of available natural hazard-related datasets and conveys both successes and limitations.

Dyer, Alec S. (ORCID:0000000219813904)↗

Geologic Maps for Civil Engineering and Infrastructure Planning

The Artemis Program mandate for sustainable, long-term presence on the Moon requires learning to "Live Off the Land". Geologic maps enable a paradigm shift to model the development and scaling of infrastructure for robotic and human exploration inside a bounded system on the lunar surface. Relying on geologic maps produced from orbital data and robotic precursor missions, in-situ resource utilization (ISRU) will be required to produce infrastructure, building materials and consumables. The ISRU value chain must be mapped to identify linkages of resources, producers, processes and equipment capabilities for transforming excavated regolith into usable feedstocks. Coordination will be required to balance supply and demand across the whole system of lunar infrastructure and operations, at each stage of development.

Geologic Mapping↗

Lakshmi Planum, Venus - Characteristics and models of origin

The distinctive and unique Venusian geological structure, Lakshmi Planum, is an expansive relatively smooth flat plateau containing two large shield volcanos and abundant volcanic plains in the midst of a region of extreme relief. The characteristics which distinguish Lakshmi from other volcanic regions known on the planet, such as Beta Regio, are identified. These include its high altitude and plateaulike nature; the presence of two very large low shield structures with distinctive central paterae and long radiating flows; and its compressional tectonic environment. The detailed nature and significance of the volcanic deposits on Lakshmi are determined; the erruption styles and conditions are interpreted; and the link between the observed volcanism and tectonic environment of the region is discussed. Models for the formation of Lakshmi Planum are presented and evaluated.

Roberts, Kari M.↗

Facilitating CCS Business Planning by Extending the Functionality of the SimCCS Integrated System Model

The application of integrated system models for evaluating carbon capture and storage technology has expanded steadily over the past few years. To date, such models have focused largely on hypothetical scenarios of complex source-sink matching involving numerous large-scale CO 2 emitters, and high-volume, continuous reservoirs such as deep saline formations to function as geologic sinks for carbon storage. Though these models have provided unique insight on the potential costs and feasibility of deploying complex networks of integrated infrastructure, there remains a pressing need to translate such insight to the business community if this technology is to ever achieve a truly meaningful impact in greenhouse gas mitigation. Here, we present a new integrated system modelling tool termed SimCCUS aimed at providing crucial decision support for businesses by extending the functionality of a previously developed model called SimCCS. The primary innovation of the SimCCUS tool development is the incorporation of stacked geological reservoir systems with explicit consideration of processes and costs associated with the operation of multiple CO 2 utilization and storage targets from a single geographic location. In such locations provide significant efficiencies through economies of scale, effectively minimizing CO 2 storage costs while simultaneously maximizing revenue streams via the utilization of CO 2 as a commodity for enhanced hydrocarbon recovery.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Absorption and scattering properties of the Martian dust in the solar wavelengths

A new wavelength-dependent model of the single-scattering properties of the Martian dust is presented. The model encompasses the solar wavelengths (0.3 to 4.3 micrometers at 0.02 micrometer resolution) and does not assume a particular mineralogical composition of the particles. We use the particle size distribution, shape, and single-scattering properties at Viking Lander wavelengths presented by Pollack et al. [1995]. We expand the wavelength range of the aerosol model by assuming that the atmospheric dust complex index of refraction is the same as that of dust particles in the bright surface geologic units. The new wavelength-dependent model is compared to observations taken by the Viking Orbiter Infrared Thermal Mapper solar channel instrument during two dust storms. The model accurately matches afternoon observations and some morning observations. Some of the early morning observations are much brighter than the model results. The increased reflectance can be ascribed to the formation of a water ice shell around the dust particles, thus creating the water ice clouds which Colburn et al. [1989], among others, have predicted.

Atmosphere/analysis↗

Geothermal Play-Fairway Analysis of Washington State Prospects: Phase 2 Technical Report

An investment of $0.7M from the Geothermal Technology Office for Phase 2 of Play Fairway Analysis in Washington State improved existing favorability models and increased model confidence. New 1:24,000-scale geological mapping, 15 detailed geophysical surveys, 2 passive seismic surveys, and geochronology collected during this phase were coupled with updated and detailed structural modeling and have significantly improved the conceptual models of three potential blind geothermal systems/ plays in Washington State, the St. Helens Shear Zone, Mount Baker, and Wind River Valley. Results of this analysis reveal the presence of commercially viable undiscovered geothermal resources in all three study areas. The analysis additionally provides a clear definition of the geothermal prospects in terms of the essential elements of a functioning geothermal system, the confidence in these assessments, and associated potential and risk of development. This report also includes a proposal to validate the modeling results in highly favorable areas for two main reasons: (1) to develop confidence in the modeling approach that will encourage future development of geothermal resources in Washington State inside and outside of the Phase 2 study areas, and (2) to provide actionable results to the DOE, existing industry partners, newly identified developers, and other renewable-energy stakeholders. The proposed validation activities aim to collect new data that will further the understanding of geothermal resource potential in Washington, as well as substantiate the favorability, confidence, and risk models developed in Phases 1 and 2.

Forson, Corina↗

A Deep Learning-Based Workflow for Fast Prediction of 3D State Variables in Geological Carbon Storage: A Dimension Reduction Approach

In this study, we used deep learning techniques, which are a form of artificial intelligence, to create fast and effective models for predicting how fluids flow in underground geological formations. This is important for managing geological carbon storage, a method used to fight climate change by storing carbon dioxide underground. The challenge lies in the complex nature of these underground spaces and the large amount of data needed to accurately simulate them. To overcome these issues, we developed a new workflow that reduces the data’s complexity before training the deep learning model and then reconstructs the predicted results in their original form. We also proposed a unique approach to handle the specific complexities found in 3D saturation fields, a crucial aspect of fluid flow prediction. We tested our method using real-world data from the Gulf of Mexico. Our results show that our approach not only accurately predicts fluid behavior but also significantly reduces computation time. This will greatly improve real-time decision-making and risk assessment in large-scale geological carbon storage operations.

Wang, Hongsheng↗

Differential Seismic Phase Detection Probability as a Potential Discriminant of Explosions and Earthquakes

Deep learning models trained to estimate the probability of seismic P and S phases are rapidly expanding the scale of local event detections. Here, we evaluate the potential for deep learning model output phase detection probabilities to contribute to event‐type classification, particularly discrimination of single‐fired borehole explosions and earthquakes at local distances (<300 km). Motivated by the empirical success of P/S amplitude ratios, we consider the difference between P and S pick probability output from previously developed phase detection models, P prob −S prob ⁠, as a discriminant. Test data include M L ∼1–4 earthquakes and explosions observed by common seismographs in ten geologically diverse localities. Depending on the picking model and training data, binary classification using P prob −S prob with at least three stations can achieve approximately equivalent classification accuracy as P/S amplitude ratios without requiring any customization. Joint classification with P/S and P prob −S prob improves accuracy for most quality control scenarios. Pick probabilities are an efficient attribute to consider in explosion discrimination because they can be automated byproducts of event detection. They avoid the binary choice of picking or not picking weakly visible S waves common to explosions.

Duan, Chenglong [Rice Univ., Houston, TX (United S↗

On the Use of NLDAS2 Weather Data for Hydrologic Modeling in the Upper Mississippi River Basin

Weather data are the key forces that drive hydrological processes so that their accuracy in watershed modeling is fundamentally important. For large-scale watershed modeling, weather data are either generated by using interpolation methods or derived from assimilated datasets. In the present study, we compared model performances of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), as driven by interpolation weather data, and NASA North American Land Data Assimilation System Phase Two (NLDAS2) weather dataset in the Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB). The SWAT model fed with different weather datasets were used to simulate monthly stream flow at 11 United States Geological Survey (USGS) monitoring stations in the UMRB. Model performances were evaluated based on three metrics: coefficient of determination (R 2 ), Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient (NS), and percent bias (P bias ). The results show that, after calibration, the SWAT model compared well at all monitoring stations for monthly stream flow using different weather datasets indicating that the SWAT model can adequately produce long-term water yield in UMRB. The results also show that using NLDAS2 weather dataset can improve SWAT prediction of monthly stream flow with less prediction uncertainty in the UMRB. We concluded that NLDAS2 dataset could be used by the SWAT model for large-scale watersheds like UMRB as a surrogate of the interpolation weather data. Further analyses results show that NLDAS2 daily solar radiation data was about 2.5 MJ m -2 higher than the interpolation data. As such, the SWAT model driven by NLDAS2 dataset tended to underestimate stream flow in the UMRB due to the overestimation in evapotranspiration in uncalibrated conditions. Thus, the implication of overestimated solar radiation by NLDAS2 dataset should be considered before using NLDAS2 dataset to drive the hydrological model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Reducing uncertainty about carbon dioxide as a climate driver

The lack of an adequate ancient analogue for future climates means that we ultimately must use and trust climate models, evaluated against modern observation and our best geologic records of warm and cold climates of the past. Armed with an elevated confidence in the models, we will then be able to make reliable predictions of the Earth's response to our risky experiment with the climate system.

Climate↗

Experimental design applications for modeling and assessing carbon dioxide sequestration in saline aquifers

This project was a computer modeling effort to couple reservoir simulation and ED/RSM using Sensitivity Analysis, Uncertainty Analysis, and Optimization Methods, to assess geologic, geochemical, geomechanical, and rock-fluid effects and factors on CO 2 injectivity, capacity, and plume migration. The project objective was to develop proxy models to simplify the highly complex coupled geochemical and geomechanical models in the utilization and storage of CO 2 in the subsurface. The goals were to investigate and prove the feasibility of the ED/RSM processes and engineering development, and bridge the gaps regarding the uncertainty and unknowns of the many geochemical and geomechanical interacting parameters in the development and operation of anthropogenic CO 2 sequestration and storage sites. The bottleneck in this workflow is the high computational effort of reactive transport simulation models and large number of input variables to optimize with ED/RSM techniques. The project was not to develop the reactive transport, geomechanical, or ED/RSM software, but was to use what was commercially and/or publically available as a proof of concept to generate proxy or surrogate models. A detailed geologic and petrographic mineral assemblage and geologic structure of the doubly plunging anticline was defined using the USDOE RMOTC formations of interest data (e.g., Lower Sundance, Crow Mountain, Alcova Limestone, and Red Peak). The assemblage of 23 minerals was primarily developed from literature data and petrophysical (well log) analysis. The assemblage and structure was input into a commercial reactive transport simulator to predict the effects of CO 2 injection and complex reactions with the reservoir rock. Significant impediments were encountered during the execution phase of the project. The only known commercial reactive transport simulator was incapable of simulating complex geochemistry modeled in this project. Significant effort and project funding was expended to determine the limitations of both the commercial simulator and the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) R&D simulator, TOUGHREACT available to the project. A simplified layer cake model approximating the volume of the RMOTC targeted reservoirs was defined with 1-3 minerals eventually modeled with limited success. Modeling reactive transport in porous media requires significant computational power. In this project, up to 24 processors were used to model a limited mineral set of 1-3 minerals. In addition, geomechanical aspects of injecting CO 2 into closed, semi-open, and open systems in various well completion methods was simulated. Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) as a storage method was not modeled. A robust and stable simulation dataset or base case was developed and used to create a master dataset with embedded instructions for input to the ED/RSM software. Little success was achieved toward the objective of the project using the commercial simulator or the LBNL simulator versions available during the time of this project. Several hundred realizations were run with the commercial simulator and ED/RSM software, most having convergence problems and terminating prematurely. A proxy model for full field CO 2 injection sequestration utilization and storage was not capable of being developed with software available for this project. Though the chemistry is reasonably known and understood, based on the amount of effort and huge computational time required, predicting CO 2 sequestration storage capacity in geologic formations to within the program goals of ±30% proved unsuccessful.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DECOVALEX-2023, Task F Specification, Revision 8

This report is the revised (Revision 8) Task F specification for DECOVALEX-2023. Task F is a comparison of the models and methods used in deep geologic repository performance assessment. The task proposes to develop a reference case for a mined repository in a fractured crystalline host rock and a reference case for a mined repository in a salt formation. Teams may choose to participate in the comparison for either or both of the reference cases. For each reference case, a common set of conceptual models and parameters describing features, events, and processes that impact performance will be given, and teams will be responsible for determining how best to implement and couple the models. The comparison will be conducted in stages, beginning with a comparison of key outputs of individual process models, followed by a comparison of a single deterministic simulation of the full reference case, and moving on to uncertainty propagation and uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. This report provides background information, a summary of the proposed reference cases, and a staged plan for the analysis.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

TOUGH-RFPA: Coupled thermal-hydraulic-mechanical Rock Failure Process Analysis with application to deep geothermal wells

This paper presents a coupled thermal-hydraulic-mechanical (THM) model for simulating failure processes in geological media. The coupling between stress/strain and heat transfer describing how thermal expansion affects stress is based on the theory of thermo-elasticity. Additionally, the coupling between stress/strain and fluid flow describing how pore-pressure affects stress is governed by Biot's consolidation theory. Stress/strain-dependent porosity/permeability/capillary-pressure defines the influence of stress on fluid flow and thermal fields. The THM model is implemented in the solver module that links the multiphase, multicomponent fluid flow simulator TOUGH2 with the geomechanical simulator RFPA (Rock Failure Process Analysis), which is based on the concept that heterogeneity leads to non-linearity and progressive failure behavior. Capability of TOUGH-RFPA simulator was verified by two benchmark problems related to hydraulic-mechanical and thermal-mechanical response in a hollow cylinder. Then the applicability of TOUGH-RFPA was demonstrated for modeling cooling-induced damage around a very deep geothermal well with mesoscopic heterogeneous properties, which showed complex damage evolution and fracturing during well cooling and fluid pressurization.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DECOVALEX-2023 Task F Specification (Rev. 9)

This report is the revised (Revision 9) Task F specification for DECOVALEX-2023. Task F is a comparison of the models and methods used in deep geologic repository performance assessment. The task proposes to develop a reference case for a mined repository in a fractured crystalline host rock (Task F1) and a reference case for a mined repository in a salt formation (Task F2). Teams may choose to participate in the comparison for either or both reference cases. For each reference case, a common set of conceptual models and parameters describing features, events, and processes that impact performance will be given, and teams will be responsible for determining how best to implement and couple the models. The comparison will be conducted in stages, beginning with a comparison of key outputs of individual process models, followed by a comparison of a single deterministic simulation of the full reference case, and moving on to uncertainty propagation and uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. This report provides background information, a summary of the proposed reference cases, and a staged plan for the analysis.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DECOVALEX-2023: Task F Specification (Revision 10)

This report is the revised (Revision 10) Task F specification for DECOVALEX-2023. Task F is a comparison of the models and methods used in deep geologic repository performance assessment. The task proposes to develop a reference case for a mined repository in a fractured crystalline host rock (Task F1) and a reference case for a mined repository in a salt formation (Task F2). Teams may choose to participate in the comparison for either or both reference cases. For each reference case, a common set of conceptual models and parameters describing features, events, and processes that impact performance will be given, and teams will be responsible for determining how best to implement and couple the models. The comparison will be conducted in stages, beginning with a comparison of key outputs of individual process models, followed by a comparison of a single deterministic simulation of the full reference case, and moving on to uncertainty propagation and uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. This report provides background information, a summary of the proposed reference cases, and a staged plan for the analysis.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Rapid methods for radionuclide contaminant transport in nuclear fuel cycle simulation

Here, nuclear fuel cycle and nuclear waste disposal decisions are technologically coupled. However, current nuclear fuel cycle simulators lack dynamic repository performance analysis due to the computational burden of high-fidelity hydrolgic contaminant transport models. The Cyder disposal environment and repository module was developed to fill this gap. It implements medium-fidelity hydrologic radionuclide transport models to support assessment appropriate for fuel cycle simulation in the Cyclus fuel cycle simulator. Rapid modeling of hundreds of discrete waste packages in a geologic environment is enabled within this module by a suite of four closed form models for advective, dispersive, coupled, and idealized con- taminant transport: a Degradation Rate model, a Mixed Cell model, a Lumped Parameter model, and a 1-D Permeable Porous Medium model. A summary of the Cyder module, its timestepping algorithm, and the mathematical models implemented within it are presented. Additionally, parametric demonstrations simulations performed with Cyder are presented and shown to demonstrate functional agreement with parametric simulations conducted in a standalone hydrologic transport model, the Clay Generic Disposal System Model developed by the Used Fuel Disposition Campaign Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Research and Educational Opportunities with NASA GSFC

The research carried out in the Earth sciences at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center will be the focus of the presentation. These research interests span the full breath of disciplines in Earth System Science. Branches and research groups focus on areas as diverse as planetary geomagnetics and atmospheric chemistry. There are 4 major laboratories in the directorate and 2 organizations that focus on scientific information technology. These laboratories focus on atmospheric sciences (atmospheric chemistry, climate and radiation, regional processes, atmospheric modeling), hydrological sciences (snow, ice, oceans, and seasonal-to-interannual prediction), terrestrial physics (geology, terrestrial biology, land-atmosphere interactions, geophysics), climate modeling (global warming, greenhouse gases, climate change). Two of the labs also have branches that focus on sensor development especially using lidar and microwave technologies. In the information technologies, areas of scientific and technical research, and expertise include massively parallel computers, technologies for high speed electronic networks, scientific visualization, information systems, archive and distribution systems, and information processing. Examples will be presented from each of these research disciplines.

Meeson, Blanche W.↗

Earth System Science at NASA: Teleconnections Between Sea Surface Temperature and Epidemics in Africa

The research carried out in the Earth Sciences in NASA and at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center will be the focus of the presentations. In addition, one research project that links sea surface temperature to epidemics in Africa will be highlighted. At GSFC research interests span the full breath of disciplines in Earth Science. Branches and research groups focus on areas as diverse as planetary geomagnetics and atmospheric chemistry. These organizations focus on atmospheric sciences (atmospheric chemistry, climate and radiation, regional processes, atmospheric modeling), hydrological sciences (snow, ice, oceans, and seasonal-to-interannual prediction), terrestrial physics (geology, terrestrial biology, land-atmosphere interactions, geophysics), climate modeling (global warming, greenhouse gases, climate change), on sensor development especially using lidar and microwave technologies, and on information technologies, that enable support of scientific and technical research.

Meeson, Blanche W.↗