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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2026

Powering Large Loads: Solutions Across Transmission, Utility, and Facility Scales

This report synthesizes current strategies for accommodating large load growth through a review of publicly available technical literature and media insights around the United States (U.S.). Solutions are organized across three implementation scales (transmission, utility, and facility) and categorized according to common implementation pathways (including structural expansion, operations and efficiency, upgrades, and planning and policy).

Valdez, Raquel Lynn [Sandia National Laboratories ↗
DOE OSTI2026

Domestically Manufactured Fuel Cells for Heavy Duty Applications

This project, funded by the U.S. Department of Energy under Award DE-EE0009248, advances the domestic development of fuel-cell stack technologies for heavy-duty transportation applications. The work directly supports the Million-Mile Fuel Cell Truck (M2FCT) initiative by improving performance, durability, and manufacturability—key requirements for next-generation hydrogen fuel-cell systems.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI1991

Nuclear Safety [Vol. 32, No. 4, October-December 1991]

Nuclear Safety is a review journal that covers significant developments in the field of nuclear safety. Its scope includes the analysis and control of hazards associated with nuclear energy, operations involving fissionable materials, and the products of nuclear fission and their effects on the environment. Primary emphasis is on safety in reactor design, construction, and operation; however, the safety aspects of the entire fuel cycle, including fuel fabrication, spent-fuel processing, nuclear waste disposal, handling of radioisotopes, and environmental effects of these operations, are also treated. Table of Contents for this issue follows. GENERAL SAFETY CONSIDERATIONS: 477 Report on the International Symposium on the Use of Probabilistic Safety Assessment for Operational Safety—PSA '91, S. Chakraborty and M. Khatib-Rahbar; 488 Good Relationships Are Pivotal in Nuclear Data Bases, A. S. Heger and B. V. Koen; 494 Technical Note: The Interagency Nuclear Safety Review Panel's Evaluation of the Ulysses Space Mission, J. A. Sholtis, Jr., D. A. Huff, L. B. Gray, N. P. Klug, and R. O. Winchester; ACCIDENT ANALYSIS: 502 The Severe Accident Analysis Program for the Savannah River Nuclear Production Reactors, M. L. Hyder; CONTROL AND INSTRUMENTATION: 511 A Framework for Selecting Suitable Control Technologies for Nuclear Power Plant Systems, R. A. Kisner; DESIGN FEATURES: 521 Containments for Gas-Cooled Power Reactors History and Status, P.W. Williams; ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS: 537 Indoor Radon: A Natural Risk, N. H. Harley and J.H. Harley; On the Importance of the Atmospheric Parameters in the Fission Products Distribution of a Severe Reactor Accident, M. C. Barla and A. R. Bayulken; Book Review: Health Effects of Exposure to Low Levels of Ionizing Radiation BEIR V, C. R. Richmond; WASTE AND SPENT FUEL MANAGEMENT: 555 Activities Related to Waste and Spent Fuel Management, M. D. Muhlheim and E. G. Silver OPERATING EXPERIENCES: 567 Effects of Component Aging on the Westhinghouse Control Rod Drive System, K. Sullivan and W. Gunther; 577 Reactor Shutdown Experience, Compiled by J. W. Cletcher, 580 Selected Safety-Related Events, Compiled by G. A. Murphy; 582 Operating U 8 Power Reactors, Compiled by M. D. Muhlheim and E. G. Silver, RECENT DEVELOPMENTS: 596 General Administrative Activities, Compiled by M. D. Muhlheim and E. G. Silver; 610 Reports, Standards, and Safety Guides, D. S. Queener; 614 Proposed Rule Changes as of June 30, 1991; ANNOUNCEMENTS: 520 Workshop on PC PRAISE: A Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics Personal Computer Code for Nuclear Power Plant Piping Reliability Assessment; 536 Fifth Workshop on Nuclear Power Plant Containment Integrity; 624 New OECD "International Information System on Occupational Exposure (ISOE)"; 625 Harvard School of Public Health Announces Short Courses; 625 Eighth Power Plant Dynamics, Control and Testing Symposium; 626 Second Training Course on Off-Site Emergency Planning and Response for Nuclear Accidents; 618 The Authors; 622 Reviewers of Nuclear Safety, Vol 32.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Are Deep Energy Retrofits in Commercial Buildings Including Window Upgrades?

U.S. Commercial buildings account for about 20% of total U.S. energy consumption. Because the thermal performance of windows significantly affects building energy efficiency and HVAC system performance, best practice guidance often includes window and envelope improvements in conjunction with HVAC upgrades to optimize energy use and improve occupant comfort. It is an open question, however, regarding how often these best practices are implemented in the field. This paper aims to address that gap by conducting a literature review and a series of interviews with commercial building auditing and management professionals to explore the factors that drive window retrofits in commercial buildings. The paper explores a range of case studies from deep energy retrofits across the globe, comparing projects with and without window retrofits. The primary goals of this review are to: (1) provide data from real-world case studies illustrating the role of windows in deep energy renovations and HVAC upgrades, (2) conduct retrofit cost analyses for windows and high-performance HVAC systems and (3) offer insights into how window upgrade decisions are made and when they are implemented as part of deep energy retrofits. Most of the retrofit studies focused exclusively on high performance HVAC upgrades without considering how window upgrades might further enhance the overall energy efficiency of commercial buildings. Interviews with building industry experts shed light on the key factors influencing deep energy retrofit decisions and what factors tip the scales in favor of including window measures with more comprehensive retrofit projects.

Cort, Katherine↗
DOE OSTI2025

Invisible water in subducted crust: Lawsonite velocity anomalies under mantle conditions

Subduction zones transport significant amounts of water into Earth’s mantle, primarily through hydrous minerals such as lawsonite. However, the seismic detectability of lawsonite-bearing oceanic crust at mantle depths remains uncertain. To address this issue, we measured sound velocities of lawsonite up to 7.4 GPa and 600 °C. Both P- and S-wave velocities exhibited unexpected increases with temperature under high-pressure conditions. Our result suggest that hydrous oceanic crust exhibits higher seismic velocities than the surrounding mantle at depths of 150 to 250 km, resulting in high-velocity anomalies rather than the previously assumed low-velocity anomalies. Furthermore, the seismic velocity difference between hydrous and dry oceanic crust is less than 2%, making it challenging to distinguish between them using seismic velocities. This limitation may hinder the detection of the hydration state in subducted crust. In addition, lawsonite remains stable in 90% of subduction zones, and thus, such “seismically invisible water” may exist in most subducted slabs around the world.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Advanced-Research-on-Integrated-Energy-Systems-Based Analysis to Support Resilient System Upgrades: Energy to Communities Energyshed In-Depth Partnership with Molokai, Hawaii

The Molokai, Hawaii, Energy to Communities (E2C) Energyshed project represents a collaborative effort between the National Laboratory of the Rockies, Shake Energy Collaborative, the Molokai Clean Energy Hui, Sustainable Molokai, and Ho'ahu Energy Cooperative Molokai to advance Molokai's Community Energy Resilience Action Plan (CERAP). Supported by Hawaiian Electric Company and the Hawaii State Energy Office, the initiative aims to develop a community-defined portfolio of renewable energy solutions that enhance energy resilience while aligning with the Hawaiian Electric Integrated Grid Plan (IGP) and Molokai's energy goals. Phase 1 focused on technical analyses and community engagement to co-design feasible energy scenarios. Challenges such as grid upgrades, storage sizing, and inverter ride-through standards were addressed to align technical and operational requirements with community preferences. The project equips Molokai with actionable data and insights to implement energy initiatives while ensuring resilient and culturally informed solutions. Future efforts aim to finalize project designs, secure interconnection agreements, and deploy energy projects that reflect community priorities and technical feasibility.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bi‐Continuous W‐Rich Refractory High Entropy Alloy‐Cu Composite: Toward Material Innovation of Nuclear Reactor Coolant System

Abstract Refractory high‐entropy alloys (RHEAs) are considered promising candidate materials for next‐generation nuclear reactors due to their superior mechanical strength, irradiation resistance, and thermal stability at high temperatures. However, the significant positive heat of mixing between refractory alloying elements and Cu, commonly used in cooling systems, poses challenges in forming composite structures. This study addresses the issue using a liquid metal dealloying (LMD) process. A precursor alloy (WTaVTi) with a directional dendrite‐interdendrite structure is fabricated and reacted with molten Cu at 1200 °C for 96 h. This approach produced a RHEA‐Cu composite with a stable interface between RHEA (W 31.5 Ta 30.9 V 21.4 Ti 14.3 ) and Cu, featuring a spontaneously formed W‐rich interlayer that enhances interfacial bonding. The composite showed excellent irradiation resistance, with 30% less swelling under α‐ion irradiation than pure W. It also exhibited low thermal conductivity at room temperature, but reached ≈120 W m −1 ·K −1 at ≈650 °C, surpassing pure W. This temperature‐dependent rise in κ, with a positive gradient of +0.075 W m −1 ·K − 2 , is attributed to decreasing diffuse mismatch at elevated temperatures. The large‐scale reaction and stable microstructure achieved through LMD process highlight its industrial potential. This work offers a strategy for developing high‐performance materials by combining RHEA's radiation resistance with Cu's thermal conductivity for extreme environments.

Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2026

Imaging a terahertz superfluid plasmon in a two-dimensional superconductor

The superconducting gap defines the fundamental energy scale for the emergence of dissipationless transport and collective phenomena in a superconductor. In layered high-temperature cuprate superconductors, in which the Cooper pairs are confined to weakly coupled two-dimensional (2D) copper–oxygen (CuO 2 ) planes, terahertz (THz) spectroscopy at subgap millielectronvolt (meV) energies has provided crucial insights into the collective superfluid response perpendicular to the superconducting layers. However, within the CuO 2 planes, the collective superfluid response manifests as plasmonic charge oscillations at energies far exceeding the superconducting gap, obscured by strong dissipation. Here, in this study, we present spectroscopic evidence of a below-gap, 2D superfluid plasmon in few-layer Bi 2 Sr 2 CaCu 2 O 8+x and spatially resolve its deeply subdiffractive THz electrodynamics. By placing the superconductor in the near field of a spintronic THz emitter, we reveal this distinct resonance—absent in bulk samples and observed only in the superconducting phase—and determine its plasmonic nature by mapping the geometric anisotropy and dispersion. Crucially, these measurements offer a direct view of the momentum-dependent and frequency-dependent superconducting transition in two dimensions.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2026

Anomalous Spin‐Optical Helical Effect in Ti‐Based Kagome Metal

The kagome lattice stands as a rich platform for hosting a wide array of correlated quantum phenomena, ranging from charge density waves and superconductivity to electron nematicity and loop current states. Direct detection of loop currents in kagome systems has remained a formidable challenge due to their intricate spatial arrangements and the weak magnetic field signatures they produce, and this has made their identification experimentally subtle. This has left their existence and underlying mechanisms a topic of intense debate. In this work, we uncover signatures compatible with loop currents: spin handedness-selective signals that surpass conventional dichroic, spin, and spin-dichroic responses. We observe this phenomenon in the kagome metal CsTi 3 ⁢Bi 5 and we call it the anomalous spin-optical helical effect. This effect arises from the coupling of light's helicity with spin-orbital electron correlations, thereby providing an indirect yet sensitive approach to probe loop-current–related electronic correlations in quantum materials. Our discovery not only enriches the debate surrounding loop currents but also offers new experimental strategies to exploit the electronic phases of quantum materials via light–matter interaction.

anomalous spin-optical helical effect↗
DOE OSTI2026

High Pressure Synthesis of Ultrasmall Nanodiamonds with Nitrogen Vacancy Centers

C–H terminated nanometer scale diamonds ( d = 1 to 15 nm) are synthesized from 1-fluoroadamantane at high pressure (6–8 GPa) and high temperature (500–1500 °C) in a multianvil press. High resolution transmission electron microscopy, X-ray diffraction, Raman, diffuse reflectance Fourier transform infrared, and X-ray absorption spectroscopies demonstrate the excellent crystallinity and atomically flat C–H terminated surfaces of nanodiamonds with (111) and (110) facets. The importance of hydrogen to the synthesis of nanodiamond and its faceting is discussed. Following vacancy generation, annealing and oxidation of the nanodiamonds, optically detected magnetic resonance and electron spin resonance coherence times ( T 2 = 0.9 and 2.1 μs) of nitrogen vacancy (NV) centers are measured. Finally, the obtained T 2 values are equivalent to the shallow NV centers (depth <10 nm) in bulk diamond crystals and larger nanocrystals prepared by mechanical milling.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI1988

Nuclear Safety [Vol. 29, No. 3, July-September 1988]

Nuclear Safety is a review journal that covers significant developments in the field of nuclear safety. Its scope includes the analysis and control of hazards associated with nuclear energy, operations involving fissionable materials, and the products of nuclear fission and their effects on the environment. Primary emphasis is on safety in reactor design, construction, and operation; however, the safety aspects of the entire fuel cycle, including fuel fabrication, spent-fuel processing, nuclear waste disposal, handling of radioisotopes, and environmental effects of these operations, are also treated. Table of Contents for this issue follows. GENERAL SAFETY CONSIDERATIONS: 259 Fifteenth Water Reactor Safety Information Meeting by E. G. Silver; CONTROL AND INSTRUMENTATION: 284 Reliability Technology to Improve and/or Maintain Emergency Diesel Generator Performance by S. Karimian and J. H. Taylor, 293 A Noise Diagnostics System for Operator Advice by G. Hessel, P. Liewers, P. Schumann, W. Schmitt, and F.-P. Weiss; PLANT SAFETY FEATURES: 307 A Passive Containment System for Advanced Light-Water Reactors by O. B. Falls, Jr., and F. W. Kleimola; ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS: 318 Data Base Construction for a Computerized Radiological Risk Investigation System by L. M. Hively, J. E. Nyquist, J. L. Bledsoe, and A. L. Sjoreen, 326 Erratum to "Radiation Hormesis and Nuclear Safety," Vol. 29, No. 1; OPERATING EXPERIENCES: 327 Operational Safety Experience and Passive Safety Testing at the Fast Flux Text Facility by Q. L. Baird, J. L. Rathbun, D. D. Stepnewski, R. L. Stover, and A. E. Waltar, 344 Backfilling of Independent Residual Heat Removal Systems in West Germany and Switzerland by G. Eckert and Y. Salomon, 353 Reactor Shutdown Experience Compiled by J. W. Cletcher, 356 Selected Safety-Related Events Compiled by G. A. Murphy, 363 Operating U.S. Power Reactors Compiled by E. G. Silver; RECENT DEVELOPMENTS: 384 General Administrative Activities Compiled by E. G. Silver, 390 Reports, Standards, and Safety Guides by D. S. Queener, 395 Status of Power-Reactor Projects Undergoing Licensing Review Compiled by E. G. Silver, 400 Proposed Rule Changes as of Mar. 31,1988; ANNOUNCEMENTS: 283 International ENS/ANS Conference on Thermal Reactor Safety "NUCSAFE 88", 317 Northwestern University Short Course on Radiation Safety, 407 Second International Seminar on Small- and Medium-Sized Nuclear Reactors, 407 International Workshop on New Developments in Occupational Dose Control and ALARA Implementation at Nuclear Power Plants and Similar Facilities, 408 Fourth International Topical Meeting on Nuclear Reactor Thermal Hydraulics (NURETH-4), 404 The Authors.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2023

High‐Entropy Lithium Argyrodite Solid Electrolytes Enabling Stable All‐Solid‐State Batteries

Abstract Superionic solid electrolytes (SEs) are essential for bulk‐type solid‐state battery (SSB) applications. Multicomponent SEs are recently attracting attention for their favorable charge‐transport properties, however a thorough understanding of how configurational entropy (ΔS conf ) affects ionic conductivity is lacking. Here, we successfully synthesized a series of halogen‐rich lithium argyrodites with the general formula Li 5.5 PS 4.5 Cl x Br 1.5‐x (0≤x≤1.5). Using neutron powder diffraction and 31 P magic‐angle spinning nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy, the S 2− /Cl − /Br − occupancy on the anion sublattice was quantitatively analyzed. We show that disorder positively affects Li‐ion dynamics, leading to a room‐temperature ionic conductivity of 22.7 mS cm −1 (9.6 mS cm −1 in cold‐pressed state) for Li 5.5 PS 4.5 Cl 0.8 Br 0.7 (ΔS conf =1.98R). To the best of our knowledge, this is the first experimental evidence that configurational entropy of the anion sublattice correlates with ion mobility. Our results indicate the possibility of improving ionic conductivity in ceramic ion conductors by tailoring the degree of compositional complexity. Moreover, the Li 5.5 PS 4.5 Cl 0.8 Br 0.7 SE allowed for stable cycling of single‐crystal LiNi 0.9 Co 0.06 Mn 0.04 O 2 (s‐NCM90) composite cathodes in SSB cells, emphasizing that dual‐substituted lithium argyrodites hold great promise in enabling high‐performance electrochemical energy storage.

Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2025

Demonstration Trials of AI/ML Edge+Cloud Suite (CRADA Final Report)

PACE AI and LBNL partnered under this CRADA to test and evaluate the PACE5 edge node prototype, an AI/ML edge and cloud-based suite, at FLEXLAB.The objective of the test was to evaluate the PACE5 edge node prototype's ability to perform demand shed and take to dynamic price signals, and to demonstrate advanced fault detection and microgrid monitoring capabilities.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Heterotrophic respiration by soil microbes in a changing climate

Soil microbes strongly influence the soil organic carbon (SOC) pool, which globally stores ~2,000 PgC. Specifically, the balance between microbial heterotrophic respiration (R H ), which degrades SOC, and plant–microbe interactions that stabilize SOC determines whether terrestrial ecosystems are a net source or sink of CO 2 to the atmosphere. Here, in this Review, we evaluate how climate change alters these competing processes. R H is approximately half of total soil respiration, at ~50 PgC yr −1 , with 70% occurring in topsoils. Warming accelerates microbial metabolism, with a 10 °C temperature increase estimated to raise R H by ~50%, an effect that is particularly strong in Arctic soils. Warming also reduces soil moisture, further modulating R H , which responds nonlinearly to soil moisture, being limited by saturation and desiccation and meeting a maximum at intermediate levels. Consequently, R H is highly sensitive to future precipitation changes and drought. However, soil management strategies could enhance SOC stocks and persistence under climate change. Bacterial and fungal inoculants can promote SOC production and stabilization, while deep-rooting plants increase SOC inputs to deeper layers that experience lower R H . Agricultural practices and biochar amendments can also enhance SOC and reduce R H . Expanding field trials across regions, climates and soil types would improve empirical understanding of these responses and support better representation of R H in predictive models, enabling more accurate assessments of climate impacts on SOC storage.

Jansson, Janet K. [Pacific Northwest National Labo↗
DOE OSTI1994

Nuclear Safety [Vol. 35, No. 2, July-December 1994]

Nuclear Safety is a journal that covers significant issues in the field of nuclear safety. Its primary scope is safety in the design, construction, operation, and decommissioning of nuclear power reactors worldwide and the research and analysis activities that promote this goal, but it also encompasses the safety aspects of the entire nuclear fuel cycle, including fuel fabrication, spent-fuel processing and handling, and nuclear waste disposal, the handling of fissionable materials and radioisotopes, and the environmental effects of all these activities. Table of Contents for this issue follows. GENERAL SAFETY CONSIDERATIONS: 179 Consideration of Postaccident Consequences in the Determination of Safety Objectives for Future Nuclear Power Plants in France, D. Queniart, A. Sugier, and J. Lochard; ACCIDENT ANALYSIS: 187 Nuclear Safety Research: The Phebus FP Severe Accident Experimental Program, P. von der Hardt, A. V. Jones, C. Lecomte, and A. Tattegrain; 205 Containment Performance Analysis of the Advanced Neutron Source Reactor at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, S. H. Kim, R. P. Taleyarkhan, and V. Georgevich; 213 Assessment of Fission Product Deposits in the Reactor Coolant System: The DEVAP Program, G. Le Marois and M. Megnin; 222 Erratum to “A Review of the Available Information on the Triggering Stage of a Steam Explosion," Vol. 35, No. 1, CONTROL AND INSTRUMENTATION: 223 Effects of Normal Aging on Calibration and Response Time of Nuclear Plant Resistance Temperature Detectors and Pressure Sensors, H. M. Hashemian; DESIGN FEATURES: 235 Defense in Depth Against the Hydrogen Risk—A European Research Program, F. Fineschi; ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS: 246 Technical Note: A Preliminary Analysis of the Risks to Hong Kong Resulting from Potential Accidents of Daya Bay Nuclear Power Plant, Z. Shi and X. Wei; OPERATING EXPERIENCES: 253 Reactor Shutdown Experience, Compiled by J. W. Cletcher; SPECIAL SECTION ON TMI-2 VESSEL INVESTIGATION PROJECT: 256 Three Mile Island—New Findings 15 Years After the Accident A. M. Rubin and E. Beckjord; 269 Relocation of Molten Material to the TMI-2 Lower Head, J. R. Wolf, D. W. Akers, and L. A. Neimark; 280 Insight Into the TMI-2 Core Material Relocation Through Examination of Instrument Tube Nozzles, L. A. Neimark; 288 Physical and Radiochemical Examinations of Debris from the TMI-2 Lower Head, D. W. Akers and B. K. Schuetz; 301 Results of Metallographic Examinations and Mechanical Tests of Pressure Vessel Samples from the TMI-2 Lower Head, D. R. Diercks and G. E. Korth; 313 Margin-to-Failure Calculations for the TMI-2 Vessel, J. Rempe, L. Stickler, S. Chavez, G. Thinnes, R. Witt, and M. Corradini; U.S. NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION INFORMATION AND ANALYSES: 328 1993 Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) Program Results, L. N. Vanden Heuvel, J. W. Cletcher, D. A. Copinger, J. W. Minarick, B. W. Dolan, and P. D. O’Reilley; RECENT DEVELOPMENTS: 339 Reports, Standards, and Safety Guides, D. S. Queener; 345 Proposed Rule Changes as of June 30, 1994; ANNOUNCEMENTS: 234 Thirty-First Annual Meeting of the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements; 356 1995 International Incineration Conference; 358 Fifth International Controls and Instrumentation Conference; 359 ANS International Topical Meeting on Safety of Operating Reactors; 359 Fifth International Conference on Nuclear Criticality Safety; 360 International Conference on Probabilistic Safety Assessment Methodology and Applications; 351 The Authors; 357 Reviewers of Nuclear Safety, Vol. 35.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Λ polarization from vortex rings as the medium response for jet thermalization

We performed a systematic study on the formation of vorticity rings as the process for jet thermalization in the medium created in high-energy nuclear collisions. In this work, we expanded our previous analysis to a more realistic framework by considering noncentral events and fluctuations in the initial condition. We simulate the formation and evolution of the flow vortex structure in a relativistic viscous hydrodynamic model and study the sensitivity of the proposed “ring observable” (ℛ$^{𝑡}_{Λ}$) that can be measured experimentally through the polarization of Λ hyperons. We show that this observable is robust with respect to fluctuating initial conditions to capture the jet-induced vortex flow signal and further study its dependence on different model parameters, such as the jet's velocity, position, the fluid's shear viscosity, and the collision centrality. The proposed observable is associated with the formation of vorticity in a quark-gluon plasma, showing that the measurement of particle polarization can be a powerful tool to probe different properties of jet-medium interactions and to understand better the polarization induced by the transverse and longitudinal expansions of the medium.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Investigating permafrost carbon dynamics in Alaska with artificial intelligence

Abstract Positive feedbacks between permafrost degradation and the release of soil carbon into the atmosphere impact land–atmosphere interactions, disrupt the global carbon cycle, and accelerate climate change. The widespread distribution of thawing permafrost is causing a cascade of geophysical and biochemical disturbances with global impacts. Currently, few earth system models account for permafrost carbon feedback (PCF) mechanisms. This research study integrates artificial intelligence (AI) tools and information derived from field-scale surveys across the tundra and boreal landscapes in Alaska. We identify and interpret the permafrost carbon cycling links and feedback sensitivities with GeoCryoAI, a hybridized multimodal deep learning (DL) architecture of stacked convolutionally layered, memory-encoded recurrent neural networks (NN). This framework integratesin-situmeasurements and flux tower observations for teacher forcing and model training. Preliminary experiments to quantify, validate, and forecast permafrost degradation and carbon efflux across Alaska demonstrate the fidelity of this data-driven architecture. More specifically, GeoCryoAI logs the ecological memory and effectively learns covariate dynamics while demonstrating an aptitude to simulate and forecast PCF dynamics—active layer thickness (ALT), carbon dioxide flux (CO 2 ), and methane flux (CH 4 )—with high precision and minimal loss (i.e. ALT RMSE : 1.327 cm [1969–2022]; CO 2 RMSE : 0.697µmolCO 2 m −2 s −1 [2003–2021]; CH 4 RMSE : 0.715 nmolCH 4 m −2 s −1 [2011–2022]). ALT variability is a sensitive harbinger of change, a unique signal characterizing the PCF, and our model is the first characterization of these dynamics across space and time.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗