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Complete Decoding and Reporting of Aviation Routine Weather Reports (METARs)

Aviation Routine Weather Report (METAR) provides surface weather information at and around observation stations, including airport terminals. These weather observations are used by pilots for flight planning and by air traffic service providers for managing departure and arrival flights. The METARs are also an important source of weather data for Air Traffic Management (ATM) analysts and researchers at NASA and elsewhere. These researchers use METAR to correlate severe weather events with local or national air traffic actions that restrict air traffic, as one example. A METAR is made up of multiple groups of coded text, each with a specific standard coding format. These groups of coded text are located in two sections of a report: Body and Remarks. The coded text groups in a U.S. METAR are intended to follow the coding standards set by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). However, manual data entry and edits made by a human report observer may result in coded text elements that do not follow the standards, especially in the Remarks section. And contrary to the standards, some significant weather observations are noted only in the Remarks section and not in the Body section of the reports. While human readers can infer the intended meaning of non-standard coding of weather conditions, doing so with a computer program is far more challenging. However such programmatic pre-processing is necessary to enable efficient and faster database query when researchers need to perform any significant historical weather analysis. Therefore, to support such analysis, a computer algorithm was developed to identify groups of coded text anywhere in a report and to perform subsequent decoding in software. The algorithm considers common deviations from the standards and data entry mistakes made by observers. The implemented software code was tested to decode 12 million reports and the decoding process was able to completely interpret 99.93 of the reports. This document presents the deviations from the standards and the decoding algorithm. Storing all decoded data in a database allows users to quickly query a large amount of data and to perform data mining on the data. Users can specify complex query criteria not only on date or airport but also on weather condition. This document also describes the design of a database schema for storing the decoded data, and a Data Warehouse web application that allows users to perform reporting and analysis on the decoded data. Finally, this document presents a case study correlating dust storms reported in METARs from the Phoenix International airport with Ground Stops issued by Air Route Traffic Control Centers (ATCSCC). Blowing widespread dust is one of the weather conditions when dust storm occurs. By querying the database, 294 METARs were found to report blowing widespread dust at the Phoenix airport and 41 of them reported such condition only in the Remarks section of the reports. When METAR is a data source for an ATM research, it is important to include weather conditions not only from the Body section but also from the Remarks section of METARs.

METAR Decoder/Parser↗

Characterizing Agricultural Impacts of Recent Large-Scale US Droughts and Changing Technology and Management

Process-based agricultural models, applied in novel ways, can reproduce historical crop yield anomalies in the US, with median absolute deviation from observations of 6.7% at national-level and 11% at state-level. In seasons for which drought is the overriding factor, performance is further improved. Historical counterfactual scenarios for the 1988 and 2012 droughts show that changes in agricultural technologies and management have reduced system-level drought sensitivity in US maize production by about 25% in the intervening years. Finally, we estimate the economic costs of the two droughts in terms of insured and uninsured crop losses in each US county (for a total, adjusted for inflation, of $9 billion in 1988 and $21.6 billion in 2012). We compare these with cost estimates from the counterfactual scenarios and with crop indemnity data where available. Model based measures are capable of accurately reproducing the direct agro-economic losses associated with extreme drought and can be used to characterize and compare events that occurred under very different conditions. This work suggests new approaches to modeling, monitoring, forecasting, and evaluating drought impacts on agriculture, as well as evaluating technological changes to inform adaptation strategies for future climate change and extreme events.

Climate extremes; Drought impacts; Agriculture; Se↗

Large-scale structure effects on the gravitational lens image positions and time delay

We compute the fluctuations in gravitational lens image positions and time delay caused by large-scale structure correlations. We show that these fluctuations can be expressed as a simple integral over the density power spectrum. Using the Cosmic Background Explorer (COBE) normalization we find that positions of objects at cosmological distances are expected to deviate from their true positions by few arcminutes. These deflections are not directly observable. The positions of the images relative to one another fluctuate by a few percent of the relative separation, implying that one does not expect multiple images to be produced by large-scale structure. Nevertheless, the fluctuations are larger than the observational errors on the positions and affect reconstructions of the lens potential. The time delay fluctuations have a geometrical and a gravitational contribution. Both are much larger than the expected time delay from the primary lens, but partially cancel each other. We find that large-scale structure weakly affects the time delay and time delay measurements can be used as a probe of the distance scale in the universe.

Seljak, Uros↗

Cosmic shear as a probe of galaxy formation physics

Here, we evaluate the potential for current and future cosmic shear measurements from large galaxy surveys to constrain the impact of baryonic physics on the matter power spectrum. We do so using a model-independent parametrization that describes deviations of the matter power spectrum from the dark-matter-only case as a set of principal components that are localized in wavenumber and redshift. We perform forecasts for a variety of current and future data sets, and find that at least ~90 per cent of the constraining power of these data sets is contained in no more than nine principal components. The constraining power of different surveys can be quantified using a figure of merit defined relative to currently available surveys. With this metric, we find that the final Dark Energy Survey data set (DES Y5) and the Hyper Suprime-Cam Survey will be roughly an order of magnitude more powerful than existing data in constraining baryonic effects. Upcoming Stage IV surveys (Large Synoptic Survey Telescope, Euclid , and Wide Field Infrared Survey Telescope ) will improve upon this by a further factor of a few. We show that this conclusion is robust to marginalization over several key systematics. The ultimate power of cosmic shear to constrain galaxy formation is dependent on understanding systematics in the shear measurements at small (sub-arcminute) scales. Lastly, if these systematics can be sufficiently controlled, cosmic shear measurements from DES Y5 and other future surveys have the potential to provide a very clean probe of galaxy formation and to strongly constrain a wide range of predictions from modern hydrodynamical simulations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Characterizing core and edge turbulence regimes with fluctuation imaging diagnostics in Wendelstein 7-X

Two density fluctuation imaging systems, phase contrast imaging (PCI) and gas puff imaging (GPI) measure spatially resolved density fluctuations with high time resolution throughout the core plasma (PCI) and in the scrape-off layer (GPI) of the Wendelstein 7-X (W7-X) stellarator. Both systems combined give a comprehensive overview of overall fluctuation levels, spectral properties such as their distribution in frequency and wavenumber space as well as their spatial distribution. These tools are used to assess changes in density turbulence in three representative discharges that transition into stable divertor detachment by different strategies (impurity seeding, density ramping and power starvation). Several general trends are identified when the radiated power fraction is systematically increased: In the plasma edge, the line emission observed by GPI shifts radially inward with a drop in electron temperature, and normalized intensity fluctuation profiles follow this inward shift. Skewness and kurtosis of these edge fluctuations are reduced, indicating a reduction of large intermittent transport events, and poloidal phase velocities decrease in magnitude. These observations are consistent with a reduced power input into the plasma edge and a general reduction of turbulent activity. Core density fluctuation levels remain nearly constant in the impurity seeding scenario, indicating that detachment does not significantly impact turbulence there. However, a strong reduction in the dominant outboard fluctuation phase velocity is observed that deviates from the previous interpretation of neoclassical radial electric field changes, showing that the core plasma is not completely unaffected. In the density ramp and power starvation scenarios, undesirable and irregular large-scale events arise clearly in both diagnostic systems as the radiative fraction is increased. Impurity seeding therefore seems to be a promising strategy on W7-X to achieve detachment without significantly altering core turbulence, especially when targeting a specific operating point in core density and heating power.

Wendelstein 7-X↗

Comparison of three DWM-based wake models at above-rated wind speeds

In this study we investigate three mid-fidelity wind turbine wake models based on the dynamic wake meandering (DWM) model principle, and compare their performance with a reference dataset, produced with large-eddy simulations using the actuator line model. The models are compared with respect to flow field, power, and loads on a row of four 5MW reference turbines experiencing above-rated wind conditions. In general, the DWM models show fairly good agreement with large-eddy simulation for the time-averaged flow fields, blade forces and power, with increasing differences along the turbine row. Also when comparing fatigue loads of blade root moments, the differences between the models increase further into the row, with deviations up to 25 % of the reference case. However, while the development in blade root moment fatigue along the turbine row is predominantly driven by the energy content at the frequency corresponding to the turbine's rotational period (1 P ) for the DWM models, the large-eddy simulation results suggest that the key drivers for the blade root and tower loads are the increase in meandering and energy at higher frequencies (> 1 P ) deeper into the turbine row. For the tower loads, the DWM models highly underestimate the fatigue for the waked turbines. From these results, we suggest priorities for future model developments so that robust model implementations can be used in wind farm design and operation.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Comparison of buoy-mounted 74-kHz acoustic Doppler current profilers with vector-measuring current meters

In December 1991, the National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) deployed two meteorological buoys in the Southern California Bight on a transect between San Diego and San Clemente Island. Each buoy consisted of a 10-m discus hull instrumented to measure a suite of meteorological parameters, and, for the first time in the NDBC buoy program, acoustic Doppler current profilers (ADCPs) were included to gather hourly current profiles beneath the two buoys. Moorings instrumented with seven vector-measuring current meters (VMCMs) were deployed adjacent to the NDBC buoys for several months and provided current observations for comparison with the ADCP measurements. When wave-induced buoy motion is not overly large, the observations of horizontal current made by the ADCP and the VMCM are highly correlated. Time series of differences between ADCP and VMCM measurements are characterized by a mean difference (bias error) of about 0.01 m/s and standard deviation of about 0.035 m/s for 1-h observations. Estimates of current spectra from ADCP and VMCM records suggest that the ADCP system can be characterized by a white noise level of 2 x 10(exp -3) sq m/sq s/cph. However, when the in situ environment is such that large surface waves are present (including breaking waves and whitecaps), erroneous current values are usually reported by the ADCP. Mean values of vertical velocities reported by the ADCP appear to be much larger than what could be physically expected and are therefore deemed unreliable.

Winant, Clinton↗

WE-AB-303-05: Breathing Motion of Liver Segments From Fiducial Tracking During Robotic Radiosurgery and Comparison with 4D-CT-Derived Fiducial Motion

Purpose: To quantify respiratory-induced motion of liver segments using the positions of implanted fiducials during robotic radiosurgery. This study also compared fiducial motion derived from four-dimensional computed tomography (4D-CT) maximum intensity projections (MIP) with motion derived from imaging during treatment. Methods: Forty-two consecutive liver patients treated with liver ablative radiotherapy were accrued to an ethics approved retrospective study. The liver segment in which each fiducial resided was identified. Fiducial positions throughout each treatment fraction were determined using orthogonal kilovoltage images. Any data due to patient repositioning or motion was removed. Mean fiducial positions were calculated. Fiducial positions beyond two standard deviations of the mean were discarded and remaining positions were fit to a line segment using least squares minimization (LSM). For eight patients, fiducial motion was derived from 4D-CT MIPs by calculating the CT number weighted mean position of the fiducial on each slice and fitting a line segment to these points using LSM. Treatment derived fiducial trajectories were corrected for patient rotation and compared to MIP derived trajectories. Results: The mean total magnitude of fiducial motion across all liver segments in left-right, anteroposterior, and superoinferior (SI) directions were 3.0 ± 0.2 mm, 9.3 ± 0.4 mm, and 20.5 ± 0.5 mm, respectively. Differences in per-segment mean fiducial motion were found with SI motion ranging from 12.6 ± 0.8 mm to 22.6 ± 0.9 mm for segments 3 and 8, respectively. Large, varied differences between treatment and MIP derived motion at simulation were found with the mean difference for SI motion being 2.6 mm (10.8 mm standard deviation). Conclusion: The magnitude of liver fiducial motion was found to differ by liver segment. MIP derived liver fiducial motion differed from motion observed during treatment, implying that 4D-CTs may not accurately capture the range of liver motion across fractions and during treatment. Author V. Nair was funded by the Cushing estate for a SABR clinical research fellowship.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

The impact of physical and mental tasks on pilot mental workoad

Seven instrument-rated pilots with a wide range of backgrounds and experience levels flew four different scenarios on a fixed-base simulator. The Baseline scenario was the simplest of the four and had few mental and physical tasks. An activity scenario had many physical but few mental tasks. The Planning scenario had few physical and many mental taks. A Combined scenario had high mental and physical task loads. The magnitude of each pilot's altitude and airspeed deviations was measured, subjective workload ratings were recorded, and the degree of pilot compliance with assigned memory/planning tasks was noted. Mental and physical performance was a strong function of the manual activity level, but not influenced by the mental task load. High manual task loads resulted in a large percentage of mental errors even under low mental task loads. Although all the pilots gave similar subjective ratings when the manual task load was high, subjective ratings showed greater individual differences with high mental task loads. Altitude or airspeed deviations and subjective ratings were most correlated when the total task load was very high. Although airspeed deviations, altitude deviations, and subjective workload ratings were similar for both low experience and high experience pilots, at very high total task loads, mental performance was much lower for the low experience pilots.

Berg, S. L.↗

TH-AB-BRA-05: Lung Cannot Be Treated as Homogeneous in Radiation Transport Simulations in Magnetic Fields

Purpose: Magnetic fields in MRgRT are known to induce dose perturbations near lung-tissue interfaces. The goal of this study is to determine if the heterogeneous structure of the lung influences the dose distribution in a magnetic field. Method: The dose distribution from a 4 cm X 4 cm 6 MV photon beam in a 0, 0.6, or 1.5 T magnetic field in a homogeneous lung density (0.333 g/cm{sup 3}) geometry is compared to that in a heterogeneous segmented slab configuration. The heterogeneous phantom is composed of 2/3 water vapour and 1/3 liquid water such that the overall density of the lung regions in the two phantoms are equivalent. The EGSnrc DOSXYZnrc user code is used with a previously implemented magnetic field transport code. Results: For water vapour gap thickness of 2 mm, compared to the homogeneous lung case (which already exhibits significant dose perturbations in a magnetic field) differences as large as 12.3 ± 0.2 % are observed for a 0.6 T field and 9.3 ± 0.1 % for a 1.5 T field at the tissuelung interface, and on the order of several percent within the lung-like tissue region for both magnetic fields. Thicker gaps produced larger deviations while a gap thickness of 0.2 mm does not result in notable differences. Regardless of gap thickness, the heterogeneities had little effect on the 0 T simulations. Further, using smaller scoring regions revealed that dose averaging effects could obscure dose differences as large as 10 – 20 % within the heterogeneous structures of the lung-like media. Conclusions: This simple model demonstrates that media heterogeneities can play an important role in MRgRT dose distributions, and care must be taken in setting up any dose calculation in the lung in the presence of a magnetic field, especially for air regions larger than 2 mm.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Advancing the understanding of energy-energy correlators in heavy-ion collisions

We investigate the collinear limit of the energy-energy correlator (EEC) in a heavy-ion context. First, we revisit the leading-logarithmic (LL) resummation of this observable in vacuum following a diagrammatic approach. We argue that this route allows to naturally incorporate medium-induced effects into the all-orders structure systematically. As an example, we show how the phase-space constraints imposed by the static medium on vacuum-like emissions can be incorporated into the LL result by modifying the anomalous dimensions. On the fixed-order side, we calculate the $\mathcal{O}$(α s ) expansion of the in-medium EEC for a γ → $q\overline{q}$ splitting with arbitrary kinematics including, for the first time, subleading colour corrections. When comparing this result to previously used approximations in the literature, we find up to $\mathcal{O}$(1) deviations in the regime of interest for jet quenching signatures. Energy loss effects are also quantified and further suppress the EEC at large angles. These semi-analytic studies are complemented with a phenomenological study using the jet quenching Monte Carlo JetMed. Finally, we argue that the imprint of medium-induced effects in energy-energy correlators can be enhanced by using an alternative definition that takes as input Lund primary declusterings instead of particles.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Scaling Exponents of Turbulent Static Pressure Structure Function in the Inertial Subrange

The measured variations in the turbulent static pressure structure function D pp (r) with scale $r$ in the roughness sublayer above a subarctic forest are empirically shown to exhibit exponents that are smaller than $r$ 4/3 predicted for the inertial subrange (ISR). Three hypotheses are offered to explain these deviations. The first is based on conventional intermittency correction to the averaged turbulent kinetic energy dissipation rate, the second is based on shearing introducing deviations from locally isotropic state that must be sensed by both velocity and pressure structure functions, and the third is based on large and inertial scale pressure interactions that persist at values of $r$ within the resolvable ISR. The third hypothesis is shown to yield superior results, which allows a new formulation for D pp (r) to be derived that accommodates such finite interactions.

structure function↗

Prediction of the phase equilibria of methane hydrates using the direct phase coexistence methodology

The direct phase coexistence method is used for the determination of the three-phase coexistence line of sI methane hydrates. Molecular dynamics (MD) simulations are carried out in the isothermal–isobaric ensemble in order to determine the coexistence temperature (T{sub 3}) at four different pressures, namely, 40, 100, 400, and 600 bar. Methane bubble formation that results in supersaturation of water with methane is generally avoided. The observed stochasticity of the hydrate growth and dissociation processes, which can be misleading in the determination of T{sub 3}, is treated with long simulations in the range of 1000–4000 ns and a relatively large number of independent runs. Statistical averaging of 25 runs per pressure results in T{sub 3} predictions that are found to deviate systematically by approximately 3.5 K from the experimental values. This is in good agreement with the deviation of 3.15 K between the prediction of TIP4P/Ice water force field used and the experimental melting temperature of ice Ih. The current results offer the most consistent and accurate predictions from MD simulation for the determination of T{sub 3} of methane hydrates. Methane solubility values are also calculated at the predicted equilibrium conditions and are found in good agreement with continuum-scale models.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Dielectric anomalies due to grain boundary conduction in chemically substituted BiFeO{sub 3}

We describe systematic studies on Nd and Mn co-doped BiFeO{sub 3}, i.e., (Bi{sub 0.95}Nd{sub 0.05})(Fe{sub 0.97}Mn{sub 0.03})O{sub 3} (BNFM) polycrystalline electroceramics. Raman spectra and X-ray diffraction patterns revealed the formation of rhombohedral crystal structure at room temperature, and ruled out structural changes in BiFeO{sub 3} (BFO) after low percentage chemical substitution. Strong dielectric dispersion and a sharp anomaly around 620 K observed near the Néel temperature (T{sub N} ∼ 643 K of BFO) support strong magneto-dielectric coupling, verified by the exothermic peak in differential thermal data. Impedance spectroscopy disclosed the appearance of grain boundary contributions in the dielectric data in the region, and their disappearance just near the Néel temperature suggests magnetically active grain boundaries. The resistive grain boundary components of the BNFM are mainly responsible for magneto-dielectric coupling. Capacitive grain boundaries are not observed in the modulus spectra and the dielectric behavior deviates from the ideal Debye-type. The ac conduction studies illustrate short-range order with ionic translations assisted by both large and small polaron hopping. Magnetic studies indicate that the weak antiferromagnetic phase of BNFM ceramics is dominated by a strong paramagnetic response (unsaturated magnetization even at applied magnetic field of 7 T). The bulk BNFM sample shows a good in-plane magnetoelectric coupling (ME) coefficient.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Dielectric and specific heat relaxations in vapor deposited glycerol

Recently [S. Capponi, S. Napolitano, and M. Wübbenhorst, Nat. Commun. 3, 1233 (2012)], vapor deposited glasses of glycerol have been found to recover their super-cooled liquid state via a metastable, ordered liquid (MROL) state characterized by a tremendously enhanced dielectric strength along with a slow-down of the relaxation rate of the structural relaxation. To study the calorimetric signature of this phenomenon, we have implemented a chip-based, differential AC calorimeter in an organic molecular beam deposition setup, which allows the simultaneous measurement of dielectric relaxations via interdigitated comb electrodes and specific heat relaxation spectra during deposition and as function of the temperature. Heating of the as-deposited glass just above the bulk T{sub g} and subsequent cooling/reheating revealed a step-wise increase in c{sub p} by in total 9%, indicating unambiguously that glycerol, through slow vapour deposition, forms a thermodynamically stable glass, which has a specific heat as low as that of crystalline glycerol. Moreover, these glasses were found to show excellent kinetic stability as well as evidenced by both a high onset-temperature and quasi-isothermal recovery measurements at −75 °C. The second goal of the study was to elucidate the impact of the MROL state on the specific heat and its relaxation to the super-cooled state. Conversion of “MROL glycerol” to its “normal” (ordinary liquid, OL) state revealed a second, small (∼2%) increase of the glassy c{sub p}, a little gain (<10%) in the relaxed specific heat, and no signs of deviations of τ{sub cal} from that of normal “bulk” glycerol. These findings altogether suggest that the MROL state in glycerol comprises largely bulk-type glycerol that coexist with a minor volume fraction (<10%) of PVD-induced structural anomalies with a crystal-like calorimetric signature. Based on the new calorimetric findings, we have proposed a new physical picture that assumes the existence of rigid polar clusters (RPCs) and conclusively explains the extraordinary high kinetic stability of the MROL state, its specific calorimetric signature, the enhanced strength, and apparent slow-down of the dielectric α-relaxation. In this new picture, the incredibly slow and strengthened dielectric response is ascribed to driven rotational diffusion of whole RPCs, a mechanism that perfectly couples to the relaxation time of the “normal” glycerol fraction. First considerations based on the strength and the retardation of the dielectric RPCs’ response yield independently a size estimate for the RPCs in the order of 4-5 nm. Finally, we have discussed possible crystallisation and reorganisation effects, which give rise to pronounced out-of phase components of the specific heat at higher temperatures.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Infrared Stark and Zeeman spectroscopy of OH–CO: The entrance channel complex along the OH + CO → trans -HOCO reaction pathway

Here, sequential capture of OH and CO by superfluid helium droplets leads exclusively to the formation of the linear, entrance-channel complex, OH-CO. This species is characterized by infrared laser Stark and Zeeman spectroscopy via measurements of the fundamental OH stretching vibration. Experimental dipole moments are in disagreement with ab initio calculations at the equilibrium geometry, indicating large-amplitude motion on the ground state potential energy surface. Vibrational averaging along the hydroxyl bending coordinate recovers 80% of the observed deviation from the equilibrium dipole moment. Inhomogeneous line broadening in the zero-field spectrum is modeled with an effective Hamiltonian approach that aims to account for the anisotropic molecule-helium interaction potential that arises as the OH-CO complex is displaced from the center of the droplet.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Spectroscopic abundances in the open cluster NGC 6819

High-dispersion spectra of 333 stars in the open cluster NGC 6819, obtained using the HYDRA spectrograph on the WIYN 3.5 m telescope, have been analyzed to determine the abundances of iron and other metals from lines in the 400 Å region surrounding the Li 6708 Å line. Our spectra, with signal-to-noise per pixel ranging from 60 to 300, span the luminosity range from the tip of the red giant branch to a point two magnitudes below the top of the cluster turnoff. We derive radial and rotational velocities for all stars, as well as [Fe/H] based on 17 iron lines, [Ca/H], [Si/H], and [Ni/H] in the 247 most probable, single members of the cluster. Input T{sub eff} estimates for model atmosphere analysis are provided by (B−V) colors merged from several sources, with individual reddening corrections applied to each star relative to a cluster mean of E(B−V) = 0.16. Extensive use is made of ROBOSPECT, an automatic equivalent width measurement program; its effectiveness on large spectroscopic samples is discussed. From the sample of likely single members, [Fe/H] = −0.03 ± 0.06, where the error describes the median absolute deviation about the sample median value, leading to internal precision for the cluster below 0.01 dex. The final uncertainty in the cluster abundance is therefore dominated by external systematics due to the temperature scale, surface gravity, and microturbulent velocity, leading to [Fe/H] = −0.02 ± 0.02 for a sub-sample restricted to main sequence and turnoff stars. This result is consistent with our recent intermediate-band photometric determination of a slightly subsolar abundance for this cluster. [Ca/Fe], [Si/Fe], and [Ni/Fe] are determined to be solar within the uncertainties. NGC 6819 has an abundance distribution typical of solar metallicity thin disk stars in the solar neighborhood.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗